10 Hall of Fame Candidates: Today’s Game Ballot Announced

On Monday, the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum announced the names of 10 candidates for a plaque in Cooperstown via the “Today’s Game” Era Committee, the current version of what’s been known for a long time as the “Veterans Committee.”

The Today’s Game Committee is tasked with electing Hall of Famers whose primary impact was in 1988 or later.

The 10 candidates are (oldest to youngest)…

• New York Yankees Owner George Steinbrenner (deceased)
• Mets, Reds, Orioles, Dodgers & Nationals Manager Davey Johnson
• Yankees, Reds, Mariners, Devil Rays & Cubs Manager Lou Piniella
• Indians & Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel
• Cubs, Red Sox, Cardinals, Yankees, Orioles, Angels, Reds & Expos Reliever Lee Smith
• Dodgers, Indians, Giants & Mets Starting Pitcher Orel Hershiser
• White Sox, Rangers, A’s, Orioles & Indians Designated Hitter Harold Baines
• Cubs, Indians, Padres, Blue Jays, Orioles & Giants Outfielder Joe Carter
• Giants, Rangers, Orioles & Cardinals First Baseman Will Clark
• Indians, White Sox & Orioles Left Fielder Albert Belle

(cover photo: mlb.com & SBNation)

A panel of 16 members (consisting of some MLB executives, media members and current Hall of Famers) will vote on the 10 candidates at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas. Each panelist is limited to 4 votes and a candidate must receive 75% of the vote (at least 12 out of 16).

If any new Hall of Famers are elected, their name(s) will be announced on Sunday, December 9th.

In this piece, I’ll provide a brief capsule of each of the 10 candidates and then finish with some commentary about the Eras Committee voting process in general.

Again, I’ll go through the 10 candidates in reverse order of their age. In the coming weeks, I’ll have more detailed commentary and analysis about the candidates.

George Steinbrenner: 4th Appearance on Today’s Game or Veterans Committee Ballot

• Principal Owner of New York Yankees from 1973 until his death on July 13, 2010
• Yankees won 7 World Championships while Steinbrenner was owner

If Hall of Fame voters only considered the actual fame of a candidate, longtime Yankees owner George Steinbrenner would be a shoo-in. Steinbrenner is easily the most famous team owner in the history of baseball, and the most controversial.

For some, the idea of Steinbrenner as a Hall of Famer is laughable. It’s easy to argue that the Yankees won their seven titles in spite of the overly meddlesome King George, not because of him.

I disagree. Put simply, it was The Boss who was the driving force behind the signing of Reggie Jackson before the 1977 season, a key to the Yankees back-to-back titles in ’77 and ’78.

Also, despite his well-deserved reputation of having a quick trigger-finger when it came to firing his managers, the older Steinbrenner mostly left Joe Torre alone as the team won 4 World Championships from 1996 to 2001.

If Steinbrenner is ever to make the Hall of Fame, this is probably his best chance. This ballot is much weaker than the 2017 ballot, in which Bud Selig and John Schuerholz were elected. It’s infinitely weaker than the 2014 ballot, which featured three no-doubt choices in managers Torre, Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox.

As a native New Yorker who grew up in the Big Apple in the 1970’s, I can attest that The Boss was larger than life, a bigger star than any of his players other than Reggie.

To the extent that the plaques in the Hall of Fame represent the figures who had significant impacts on the history of baseball, it’s hard to see Cooperstown without a plaque for The Boss.

Davey Johnson: 4th Appearance on Today’s Game or Veterans Committee Ballot

• Career: 1,372-1,071 (.562 WL%) in 17 years as MLB manager for 5 teams
• Career: 301 games over .500, 15th best in MLB history
• Managed 1986 New York Mets to World Championship & 5 other teams to the postseason
• 2-time Manager of the Year (1997 AL, 2012 NL)

Davey Johnson had the good fortune of taking over the New York Mets in the season after the 1983 campaign, Darryl Strawberry’s rookie season and the year in which the team acquired Keith Hernandez.

Having managed the AAA Tidewater Tides in 1983, it was Davey who convinced management that Dwight Gooden was ready for the majors at the tender age of 19.

As we know, Johnson led the Mets to a World Championship in 1986, his third season with the club. Despite that title, the Mets of the mid-to-late ’80’s were a bit disappointing. Those of us who were rabid Mets fans felt that the club would be a multiple title-winner.

Johnson has been on three other Today’s Game or Veterans Committee ballots and has not gotten anywhere. He’s been on ballots in which the committees inducted three other managers, Dick Williams, Billy Southworth, and Whitey Herzog.

For me, Davey Johnson is a very borderline case. I wouldn’t put him in my top 4 in this group of candidates.

Lou Piniella: 2nd Appearance on Today’s Game Ballot

• Career: 1,835-1,713 (.517 WL%) in 23 years as MLB manager for 5 teams
• 1,835 career wins is 16th most all-time (behind 12 Hall of Famers, Bruce Bochy, Gene Mauch & Dusty Baker)
• Managed 1990 Cincinnati Reds to World Championship & 6 other teams to the postseason
• 3-time Manager of the Year (1995 AL, 2001 AL, 2008 NL)

Lou Piniella took over the reins as the manager of the New York Yankees in 1986, the same year that Davey Johnson was skippering the Mets to the World Series. He was hired and fired twice by Steinbrenner before having the good fortune of taking over the Cincinnati Reds in 1990.

The inaptly-named “Sweet Lou” is in range of the Hall of Fame based on his longevity and his well-deserved reputation for turning teams around.

The biggest blemish on his resume is that he was never able to get the Seattle Mariners to the World Series, despite the presence of Hall of Fame talents like Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, Alex Rodriguez and Ichiro Suzuki.

In 2017, on the Today’s Game ballot, Piniella got the 3rd most votes (a total of 7), behind Schuerholz and Selig. Although the composition of the 2019 committee will be different than in 2017, it bodes well for Piniella that he got more votes than 6 other people who are on the ballot again this year.

If voters decide to choose just one of the three managers on this ballot, Piniella is probably the best choice. For a colorful recap of the playing and managerial career of Sweet Lou, please click here.

Charlie Manuel: 1st Appearance on Today’s Game Ballot

• Career: 1,000-826 (.548 WL%) in 12 years as MLB manager for Indians & Phillies
• Managed 2008 Philadelphia Phillies to World Championship & 5 other teams to the postseason

I’ll admit, seeing Charlie Manuel’s name on the Hall of Fame ballot was a head-scratcher for me. His 1,000 career managerial wins are just the 64th most all-time. The fewest all-time wins for a skipper to get a Cooperstown plaque due to his managerial record is 1,044.

Billy Southworth managed the St. Louis Cardinals to two World Championships and a N.L. Pennant in consecutive years from 1942-44 (winning the Fall Classic in ’42 and ’44). Southworth’s career record (1,044-704) put him 340 games over .500, 12th most all-time.

I know that Manuel was also the hitting coach for the great Cleveland Indians squads in the 1990’s but, the Hall of Fame? There are many other skippers on this ballot and not on this ballot with more robust Cooperstown resumes.

Lee Smith: 1st Appearance on Today’s Game Ballot

• Career: 478 Saves (3rd most-all-time), 3.03 ERA
• 7-time All-Star
• 4 times in Top 10 of Cy Young Award voting

Lee Arthur Smith sure looked like a potential Hall of Famer when he burst on the scene as a closer for the Chicago Cubs in the early 1980’s. In his best season (1983), Smith led the N.L. with 29 saves while posting a 1.65 ERA.

The 6’5” right-hander would go on to save at least 25 games for another 12 consecutive seasons. Only the great Mariano Rivera has a longer streak of 25+ saves.

Rivera, who is a slam dunk to make the Hall of Fame in 2019 through the BBWAA ballot, had a streak of 28 or more saves that lasted from 1997 to 2011.

Smith spent 15 years on the BBWAA ballot, debuting with 42.3% of the vote in 2003, finishing with 34.2% in 2017. The best he ever got was 50.2% in 2012. As it is with the Veterans Committee, 75% is required to gain a plaque in Cooperstown.

With the exception of players still on the BBWAA ballot, there are only two players in the history of baseball who got at least 50% of the writers’ vote who did not eventually make it into the Hall of Fame via the Veterans Committee. Those two players are Gil Hodges and Lee Smith.

With the overall weakness of the Today’s Game ballot, I would be very surprised if Smith doesn’t get elected to the Hall of Fame. There are three factors in Smith’s favor.

1. The aforementioned history of the Veterans Committees inducting players who got at least 50% of the vote by the BBWAA at some point in their 15 years on the ballot.
2. The recent history of the Eras Committee electing Jack Morris and Alan Trammell this past December. Morris maxed out at 68% of the BBWAA ballot, Trammell at 41%. History has shown that the Veterans Committees give more respect to players who had a healthy level of respect from the writers.
3. Smith’s 478 career saves will play much better on a 16-man panel that includes Hall of Fame players, managers and executives. Each year the BBWAA electorate becomes more analytically inclined and skeptical of relief pitchers not named Rivera. Players and managers will have more respect for Smith’s years as a reliable “proven closer” and his 478 saves than the writers did.

If anyone emerges from the Today’s Game ballot as a newly elected Hall of Famer next month, I would expect it to be Lee Smith.

Orel Hershiser: 2nd Appearance on Today’s Game Ballot

• Career: 204-150 (.576), 3.48 ERA, 51.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Member of 1988 World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers
• Won 1988 Cy Young Award (23-8, 2.26 ERA)
• Career postseason: 8-3, 2.59 ERA in 132 innings

Besides a dominant postseason in which he led the Los Angeles Dodgers to a World Series title, Orel Hershiser finished the 1988 regular season with a MLB-record 59 consecutive scoreless innings.

If you had polled a few dozen sportswriters after that ’88 World Series, I would hazard to guess that a healthy majority of them would have predicted that Hershiser would be a future Hall of Famer.

Alas, Hershiser had one more good season and then was never the same again. After just 4 starts in 1990, Hershiser underwent season-ending reconstructive surgery on his right shoulder.

For the rest of his career (1991-2000) with 4 different teams, the pitcher known as Bulldog posted a mediocre ERA of 4.17.

Any Hall of Fame case for Hershiser must rely on his first six full seasons with the Dodgers, in which he posted a 2.68 ERA along with 58 complete games and 23 shutouts.

Hershiser had some other high points (in particular the 1995 ALCS when he pitched the Cleveland Indians into the World Series and earned MVP honors) but it wasn’t enough. After debuting on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2006 with 11.2% of the vote, Orel was eliminated from future consideration when he got just 4.4% in 2007.

I would not have a problem with Orel Hershiser being in the Hall of Fame. His career totals are in line with Hall of Famers from the first half of the 19th century and his postseason record deserves a significant amount of bonus points.

I doubt it will happen but Hershiser was a significant figure in the history of baseball in the 1980’s.

Harold Baines: 2nd Appearance on Today’s Game Ballot

• Career: .289 BA, 384 HR, 1,628 RBI, 121 OPS+
• 6-time All-Star
• 1,628 RBI are 34th most all-time

Harold Baines finished his career with 2,866 hits, which is the 46th most in baseball history, just 7 behind Babe Ruth.

Of the 45 players in baseball history who have more hits, every eligible player who has not been linked to either PEDs or a gambling scandal has made it to the Hall of Fame, with the lone exception of Omar Vizquel (2,877 hits). Vizquel got 37% of the vote by the BBWAA in 2018 and remains a viable Cooperstown candidate.

Baines’ 1,628 RBI are 34th most ever and, again, every eligible player not linked to PEDs with more RBI is in the Hall.

Still, despite those credentials, Baines lasted for just 5 years on the writers’ ballot and never got more than 6.1% of the vote.

The left-handed hitting Baines spent the majority of his career as a designated hitter, which undoubtedly depressed his Hall of Fame voting totals. Edgar Martinez is likely to make the Hall in 2019 and David Ortiz is a virtual certainty in the future so it’s possible that the Today’s Game Committee will take a closer look at Baines than the previous committee did two years ago.

Personally, although he had a very good career, I don’t think Baines belongs in the Hall. I’ll explain more in coming weeks.

Joe Carter: 1st Appearance on Today’s Game Ballot

• Career: .259 BA, 396 HR, 1,445 RBI, 231 SB
• 5-time All-Star
• Member of 1992 and 1993 World Series Champion Toronto Blue Jays

OK, I’ll admit, I think it would be great if Joe Carter had a Hall of Fame-caliber career. His walk-off home run in Game 6 of the 1993 World Series is one of the signature moments in baseball history.

I’m sorry, though. Carter did not have a Hall of Fame career. Carter has the classic Cooperstown resume that, on the surface, has some curb appeal. 396 career home runs is not great, but it’s more than the total posted by Jim Rice, Tony Perez, or Joe DiMaggio.

Carter’s 1,445 RBI put him ahead of Orlando Cepeda, Mike Piazza, and Duke Snider.

Carter’s greatest asset as a player was that he was a known RBI man. Carter drove in 100 or more runs 10 times in his career. That’s the same number of 100-RBI seasons as Willie Mays and only one fewer than Hank Aaron.

It’s not enough. Because of poor defensive metrics and a low .306 career on-base percentage, Carter’s career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is just 19.6, which would be the second lowest for any player ever to make the Hall of Fame.

I do not worship at the temple of WAR and don’t disqualify or elevate players solely on its basis. But when you’re 19.6, there’s no margin for error that explain that away.

Will Clark: 2nd Appearance on Today’s Game Ballot

• Career: .303 BA, 284 HR, 1,205 RBI, 2,176 Hits, 137 OPS+, 56.5 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• 4 times in Top 5 of N.L. MVP Voting

By WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Will Clark is the top player on this year’s Today’s Game ballot.

Will The Thrill was an excellent hitter. He combined a high batting average with a keen batting eye and significant extra base power. If he had been able to play longer, he would have had a better chance for the Hall of Fame.

Clark retired from Major League Baseball when he was only 36 years old. He chose to hang up his spikes despite hitting .345 with a 1.081 OPS in limited duty with the St. Louis Cardinals in the year 2000. The decision was his choice; the Cardinals would have brought him back for 2001.

That retirement choice left Clark with “counting” stats that are unexciting to Hall of Fame voters. He got just 4.4% of the vote in his first and only year on the BBWAA ballot in 2006.

He was an excellent and underrated hitter. In a “big Hall” he would be a serious Cooperstown candidate but there are other first basemen from the last few decades (Keith Hernandez, Fred McGriff, Todd Helton) who have stronger cases. And that doesn’t count the PED-linked Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro.

Albert Belle: 2nd Appearance on Today’s Game Ballot

• Career: .295 BA, 381 HR, 1,239 RBI, 144 OPS+
• 5-time All-Star
• 5 times in Top 10 of A.L. MVP Voting

Albert Belle was one of the most fearsome hitters of the 1990’s. He could have hit close to 600 home runs if degenerative arthritis in his right hip hadn’t forced him to retire shortly after his 34th birthday.

Belle drove in over 100 runs in the final 9 seasons of his career. He hit over 30 home runs for eight consecutive seasons (1992-99).

The slugging left fielder was on the writers’ ballot just twice, in 2006 and 2007.

After getting 7.7% of the ballot in ’06, he fell under 5% in ’07 and was removed from further BBWAA ballots.

Belle’s career is reminiscent of the careers of Dick Allen, Frank Howard, Charlie Keller and Lance Berkman (who is on the 2019 BBWAA ballot). Allen, Howard, and Keller all produced prodigious power numbers but didn’t last long enough to gain any Hall of Fame traction.

Allen, who has statistics that are a super-sized version of Belle’s, nearly made the Hall in 2011; he finished one vote shy of a Cooperstown plaque on the 2015 Era Committee vote.

Belle is the kind of player who might have made the Hall of Fame if he had played in the first century of the sport. In today’s game, with so many other sluggers with eye-popping numbers, he simply didn’t last long enough to merit serious consideration. After debuting with 7.7% of the vote in 2006, he was drummed off the BBWAA ballot the next year.

As a peak performer, Belle has an interesting case. I think he falls short but more to come in the next month.

Conclusions

Ever since the Old-Timers Committee put 19 players into the Hall of Fame in 1945 and ’46, the various incarnations of the Veterans Committee have been highly flawed.

For many decades, the Veterans Committee served as a second chance for deserving players who had been overlooked on over-crowded writers’ ballots. But it also served as an opportunity for committee members to push unworthy former teammates into the Hall of Fame.

The Board of Directors of the Hall of Fame has changed the rules of the Veterans Committee so many times over the years that an entire book could be written about it.

There are three things that I personally don’t like about the current Eras Committees, although I will concede that the current rules are an improvement over the endless train wreck that saw no living players get inducted between 2002 and 2017.

1. Players, Mangers and Executives who Share the Ballot

My first beef: I hate it that players are on the same ballot with managers and other executives. All players on these ballots are by definition “second tier” Hall of Fame candidates (otherwise they would be in the Hall already).

What was the point of having six players on the 2014 ballot, other than to be people not to vote for while La Russa, Torre and Cox were unanimous selections of first-time managerial candidates?

In recent history, the Hall of Fame has had Veterans Committee ballots featuring solely managers, executives and umpires. That policy should return.

2. Mostly the Same Candidates as in 2017

Beef #2: seven of the ten candidates on this year’s Today’s Game ballot were also on the 2017 ballot, the one that elected Selig and Schuerholz.

The only person on the 2017 ballot who didn’t return in 2019 is Mark McGwire. Even though Big Mac was the best player on that ballot, I understand why he was left off. Existing Hall of Famers are generally hostile to players linked to Performance Enhancing Drugs. McGwire is a poster child for PEDs.

Still, the screening committee didn’t show a lot of imagination. Of the three first-time candidates, two of them (Manuel and Carter) are truly mystifying. Lee Smith makes sense. He just finished his eligibility on the BBWAA ballot and lasted for all 15 years; he was an obvious choice.

There are other players and managers who would have, in my opinion, made better choices than some of those on the ballot.

I’m thinking specifically of Jim Leyland and Dusty Baker as better managerial choices than Manuel. I’m also thinking about Bret Saberhagen and David Cone, who would have been better options than Carter and one of the other chosen players.

3. The Math is Really Hard to Make

My third beef: the math is tilted towards not electing candidates rather than electing them. Committee members are limited to voting for just 4 out of the 10 candidates, yet 75% of the vote is required. That math is hard to make for players who, again, are all “second tier” by definition.

Four years ago, Allen and Tony Oliva got 11 votes (one shy of the 12 needed). Jim Kaat got 10 votes; Maury Wills got 9, Minnie Minoso 8. These five excellent players got a total of 49 votes (out of a maximum available of 64). When a 16-person committee meets and fails to elect anyone, that’s just brutally cruel to the players who came so close.

I think that fans, players, and the Hall itself would prefer if these Eras Committees didn’t pitch shutouts as they did in 2015 and many other times in the last 16 years. My suggestion would be that, if nobody makes the 75% threshold, take all of the candidates with 50% or more and have a re-vote. Up or down, yes or no. Take the top two vote-getters and (as long as they get 75% of the run-off), those are your Hall of Famers.

There is precedent for this: in the past the Hall of Fame had run-off elections when the BBWAA was incapable of putting anyone over the 75% mark.

Anyway, the committee last year managed to beat the math, electing Morris and Trammell to the Hall of Fame.

I think Lee Smith will beat the math this year because he has an accomplishment (3rd all-time in saves) that stands out in a group of player candidates who either had truncated careers or were third-tier as hitters.

Final Thought about the Math

One final thought about the hard math. What makes it hard is when there are ten equally (or close to equally qualified) candidates who split the vote. This is what happened four years ago.

This year, the Historical Overview Committee (the committee that picked the 10 candidates) added two highly questionable candidates to this year’s ballot (Charlie Manuel and Joe Carter). It’s not that they didn’t have significant accomplishments, it’s just that they’re far short of the standards of the Hall and far short of the other managers/players on the ballot.

We don’t know yet who will be the 16 voting members of the Today’s Game Committee but there’s always a statistician (usually Steve Hirdt of the Elias Sports Bureau). Whether it’s Hirdt or someone else, there will be someone who will point out to the other committee voters that Carter’s WAR would be the second lowest in the entire history of the Hall of Fame.

Also, it doesn’t take a sabermetrician to point out how Manuel’s managerial career pales in comparison to Piniella’s or Johnson’s.

Whether it was by design or accident, the Historical Overview Committee made the math easier for somebody to get through. If, as a voter, you can automatically disqualify two candidates in your mind, now you’re picking 4 out of 8 instead of 4 out of 10. It’s easier for a consensus to emerge.

So, I’d be really surprised if Smith doesn’t join Mariano Rivera on stage as a Hall of Fame inductee in 2019 and the odds are decent that someone else will join him.

I’ll have more on the candidates in the coming weeks.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.