Future Hall of Fame Candidates: A.L. West

In just a little over four weeks, the early-starting Major League Baseball season gets under way. All teams debut on Thursday, March 29th. In the next 32 days, we’ll take a look at the active future Hall of Fame candidates on each of the 30 MLB clubs.

First, some ground rules. In order to be eligible for the Hall of Fame, a player must have service time in 10 different MLB seasons. I’ll comment on many of these players, even if their odds of making the Hall of Fame are very long. In addition, for a handful current stars who have played between 6 and 9 seasons, I’ll take a look at their cases as well, recognizing that it’s still early.

Generally speaking, I won’t comment extensively on players with 5 years of service time or less. Some of these young players sure look like future Hall of Famers right now but baseball history is littered with young stars who flamed out after burning brightly in their first few seasons.

Since it’s the division that features the defending World Series champion (the Houston Astros), arguably the best two players in baseball (Mike Trout and Jose Altuve) and two of the most obvious future Cooperstown inductees (Albert Pujols and Adrian Beltre), we’ll start this six-part series with the players plying their trade in the American League West.

For posterity and to allow people to make fun of me in the years to come, I’m going to throw out some unscientific odds at each player eventually getting a Hall of Fame plaque. With these odds, I’m going to make the assumption that none of the 13 players profiled below will ever be suspended in the future for use of Performance Enhancing Drugs. These predictions are based on past and predicted future performance only.

In this piece we’ll make extensive references to the statistics WAR (Wins Above Replacement), OPS+ (ballpark adjusted on-base + slugging%) and ERA+ (ballpark adjusted ERA). For more on these advanced metrics, please visit the Glossary. 

This piece was originally posted on February 25th. It has been updated to include Ichiro Suzuki, who recently signed with the Seattle Mariners. 

(cover photo: USA Today sports)

Houston Astros

Let’s start with the defending champions. With a core of young stars and some key veterans, this team is likely to make the post-season party for many years to come. As much as we like Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and George Springer, remember the rules. It’s too early to judge their Hall of Fame candidacies.

There are three primary members of the 2017 Astros who look like good bets to have future plaques in Cooperstown. First of all, there’s Carlos Beltran. He doesn’t count for this piece either because he retired after the season ended. As a center fielder with 435 home runs and 1,587 RBI, he is very likely to make the cut in his first few years on the ballot; he’ll make his debut with the BBWAA members in 2023. You can read more about Beltran’s candidacy in this piece authored last fall.

So, with that out of the way, let’s look at the active Astros who are on a Cooperstown track or short of it.

Justin Verlander (35 years old):

• Career: 188-114 (.623 WL%), 3.46 ERA, 124 ERA+, 56.9 WAR
• 6-time All-Star, Won 2011 Cy Young and MVP Awards
• 2017 ALCS MVP, went 4-1 with 2.21 ERA in 6 post-season appearances with Houston

The 2017 World Champion Astros were built primarily through the draft but the young players weren’t enough to fashion a championship ballclub. General Manager Jeff Luhnow signed three key veterans in the 2016-17 off-season: Beltran, Brian McCann and Josh Reddick. Either on the field or in the clubhouse, each of those three were of immense value to the team.

The final piece of the puzzle, however, was in the deadline-beating deal for the long-time ace starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers, Justin Verlander. In five September starts for the Astros, Verlander went 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA.

What he then did in October was the stuff that builds legends and cements legacies that end with plaques in Cooperstown.

In Game 2 of the ALCS against the New York Yankees, Verlander channeled his inner Jack Morris and threw 9 innings of one run ball, giving up 5 hits while striking out 13 and walking just one batter. The Astros won Game 2 in the bottom of the 9th and then won Game 6 behind Verlander’s 7 innings of shutout ball.

Verlander, who just turned 35 years old a few days ago, has two years and $56 million left on the contract that he originally signed with Detroit. If he puts up numbers similar to what he did in 2017 (15-8, 3.36 ERA), he’ll be getting a plaque in Cooperstown.

In the 2018 version of The Bill James Handbook, the sabermetric pioneer of the same name, in revealing his new “Hall of Fame Monitor,” has Verlander over the line already when it comes to the accomplishments that voters tend to reward.

Prior to last fall, Justin Verlander was best known to the general public as Kate Upton’s baseball-playing fiancee. Now he’s known as a World Champion and likley future Hall of Famer. For more on how he turned his career around when it looked like he was off the Cooperstown track, please click on this piece I authored prior to the 2017 post-season, Ten Potential Hall of Famers Playing this October.

Hall of Fame odds — 80% (predicting he gets into the low to mid 200’s in career wins)

Jose Altuve (27 years old):

• Career: .316 BA, 1,250 hits, 231 SB, 126 OPS+, 29.6 WAR
• 5-time All-Star
• 2017 A.L. MVP (.346 BA, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 164 OPS+, 8.3 WAR)

Jose Altuve has only played in 7 major league seasons so it’s very early to start chiseling a Cooperstown plaque for him. Still, the Astros second baseman is  doing the things that traditionally get players noticed in the Hall of Fame conversations. He’s gotten over 200 hits four years in a row; he’s a 3-time A.L. batting champion; he owns a MVP trophy; he’s a hero on a World Champion. He hit .310 with 7 HR and 14 RBI last October.

The 5 foot 6 inch Altuve has also been extremely durable, playing in over 150 games per year for five straight seasons. For much more on how Altuve has transformed himself from a “nice little player” (pun intended) into one of the game’s two or three best, please take a look at Jose Altuve: Welcome to the Cooperstown Conversation.

Hall of Fame odds — 67% (that’s a high number for a 7-year player but he has already done a lot of things that Hall of Fame voters like).

Brian McCann (34 years old):

• Career: 263 HR, 950 RBI, 113 OPS+, 30.2 WAR
• 7-time All-Star
• 6-time Silver Slugger (best hitting catcher)

Before you finish scratching your head on why I included Brian McCann on this list, remember that he had appeared in 6 straight All-Star games before his 28th birthday. In the first 8 full seasons of his career (all with the Atlanta Braves), McCann averaged 21 home runs, 80 RBI with a .277 BA and 119 OPS+, terrific production for a backstop.

His top level production with the bat was good enough to earn him a 5-year, $85 million contract from the New York Yankees after the 2013 season. Since inking that deal, however, McCann’s production has fallen. He’s averaged just .236 with a barely above average 101 OPS+. He’s still maintained his power stroke though, averaging 22 home runs per season.

McCann’s 250 home runs (as a catcher) are the 8th most in history, behind 6 Hall of Famers and Lance Parrish. He’s had 10 seasons with 20 or more home runs. Only Mike Piazza and Johnny Bench have done that more times (11 each).

McCann turned 34 on February 20th (the exact same date that Verlander turned 35). In “catcher” years, McCann is old. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to play enough to put up the numbers needed to get serious Cooperstown consideration. To have any chance, he’ll likely need to get close to 350 home runs, make another All-Star squad or two and win help the Astros to another ring or two.

Jorge Posada recently hit the BBWAA ballot with more impressive overall offensive credentials (a 121 OPS+) and he couldn’t even muster 5% of the ballot to get another shot. McCann will likely meet the same fate. Still, we can remember McCann as a darned good hitting catcher.

Hall of Fame odds — 10%

Los Angeles Angels

On their roster, the Angels have a first-ballot lock Hall of Famer in Albert Pujols and a near-certain future inductee in Mike Trout. The fact that the team featuring game’s greatest overall player has only made the post-season once during his career is a shame for baseball fans around America. Before we get to Trout, we’ll start with his teammate, who used to be the game’s best all-around player.

Albert Pujols (38 years old)

• Career: 614 HR, 1,918 RBI, .305 BA, 152 OPS+, 99.4 WAR
• 10-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 3-time N.L. MVP (2005, 2008, 2009)
• Career post-season: .323 BA, 1.030 OPS, 19 HR, 54 RBI (2-time champion)

If Albert Pujols retired tomorrow, he would be a first-ballot Hall of Famer in 2023. If he had retired after his 11 seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals (445 HR, .328 BA, 170 OPS+) he would also have made it to Cooperstown.

Of course, instead of retiring, Pujols inked a 10-year, $240 million contract with the Angels after the 2011 season, in which he earned his second World Series ring with the Redbirds.

Unfortunately for the Angels, Pujols has not been the same player and it’s getting worse every year. His OPS+ has declined from 126 in 2013 to 118 to 113 to a lowly 81 in 2017.

Barring injury or premature retirement, Pujols will play four more seasons in Anaheim; he’s still owed $114 million. For the last several years, Pujols has been dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right foot, having had surgery on it in the previous two off-seasons. It’s something he’s been dealing with since early in his career but clearly it’s taking a toll on his production.

While it’s sad to see Pujols as a shell of the former all-time great, let’s remember how truly magnificent he was. He won 3 MVP’s with St. Louis and finished 2nd four times (including two 2nd-place finishes to the PED-enhanced Barry Bonds). Besides the obvious eye-popping offensive numbers, advanced metrics also rate him as one of the greatest defensive first basemen in history.

With the signing of Japanese star Shohei Ohtani (who is expected to get a lot of at bats as a designated hitter), Pujols will often have to play in the field at first base this season; he only played 6 games defensively in 2017.

It would be wonderful if, somehow, Pujols is able to recapture a glimmer of his Hall of Fame form and retire in 4 years on a high note.

Hall of Fame odds — 100%

Mike Trout (26 years old)

• Career: 201 HR, 569 RBI, .306 BA, 172 OPS+, 55.2 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• Two-time A.L. MVP (2014, 2016), runner up 3 times (2012, 2013, 2015)

With only 7 MLB seasons under his belt, center fielder Mike Trout is nearly a future lock for the Hall of Fame already. All he has to do is play three more decent seasons to qualify for the 10-year rule and he’s in.

What he’s already accomplished is Cooperstown worthy. He led the American League in Wins Above Replacement for five years in a row (2012-2016), falling short in 2017 only because he missed one and a half months due to a torn ligament in his left thumb.

As we watch the 26-year-old Trout perform as the game’s best player year after year, we’re watching Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays in their primes. He’s a five-tool player highlighted by his extraordinary skills with the bat.

In a stat that MLB Network’s Brian Kenny likes to point out, Trout’s WAR through his age 25 season (55.2) is second best in the history of baseball; he’s barely behind Cobb’s 55.8.

For players with at least 3,000 plate appearances, Trout’s 172 OPS+ through his age 25 season is 3rd best in history, behind Cobb and Mantle. (Pujols is 5th best ever, incidentally, with a 167 OPS+ through his age 25 season).

Hall of Fame odds — 99% (he’d have to fall off a productivity cliff in an unprecedented way that people would forget that he’s been the best player in the game for virtually his entire early career)

Ian Kinsler (35 years old)

• Career: 234 HR, 839 RBI, 225 SB, .273 BA, 109 OPS+, 55.0 WAR
• 4-time All-Star

The Angels upgraded their infield significantly this winter with the trade acquisition of Ian Kinsler to play 2nd base and the free agent signing of Zack Cozart to convert from shortstop and play 3rd. With perennial Gold Glover Andrelton Simmons anchoring the “D” at shortstop, this looks like a solid defensive unit.

If you just look at his basic career statistics, the idea of Kinsler as a Hall of Fame candidate is highly questionable. However, as Wins Above Replacement becomes a statistic that is becoming more and more mainstream, it’s hard to discount a player whose WAR is currently 55.0.

If you strictly by WAR, Kinsler was tied for the 6th best position player in all of baseball from 2013-2016, behind only Trout, Josh Donaldson, Paul Goldschmidt, Beltre, Robinson Cano and tied with Manny Machado.

To buy the notion that Kinsler was one of the seven best players in the game for those four years you need to buy heavily in the defensive metrics, which (according to Baseball Reference) rate him as having been the defender by far at 2nd base. That requires a lot of faith.

Kinsler regressed a bit in 2017. He hit just .236 (with a below-average OPS+ of 90) with 22 HR and just 52 RBI. If he repeats that level of production for the rest of his career, he has no shot at the Hall. If, however, he has a renaissance and plays close to the level of his previous four campaigns, he could could have a legitimate shot.

Right now, Kinsler is pegged as the Angels’ leadoff hitter, with Trout behind him in the order. That certainly could bolster his run-scoring numbers. Kinsler has scored over 100 runs six times in his career. If he stays healthy in 2018, he should easily surpass that number again.

Hall of Fame odds — 15% (it’s that high because of the slow year-by-year evolution of the BBWAA electorate that increasingly buys into advanced analytics)

Justin Upton (30 years old)

• Career: 256 HR, 812 RBI, .269 BA, 121 OPS+, 32.4 WAR
• 4-time All-Star

From the very beginning of his professional career, Justin Upton was supposed to be a Hall of Famer in the making. His older brother Melvin Upton was the 2nd overall pick of the 2002 draft.

Justin, the younger Upton brother, was selected by the Arizona Diamondbacks with the first overall pick in the 2005 draft. A little over two years later, at the tender age of 19, Justin was in the major leagues. He made his first All-Star squad at the age of 21, in 2009.

Upton, since that first All-Star appearance, has been a solid player but not the superstar that he was predicted to be. Signed this off-season to be the Angels left fielder for the next five seasons, Upton is not currently on a track for Cooperstown. In an offensively super-charged era, his career high in home runs is 35 (set last year); his career high in RBI is 109 (also in 2017).

I included him on this list because he’s just 30 years old and he’s now signed up to hit behind Trout for five years. RBI opportunities will be aplenty. Most players peak as all-around players in their mid-20’s but baseball history is replete with players who develop their power game in their late 20’s or early 30’s. Upton seems like he might be that kind of hitter.

Upton has 256 home runs through his age 29 season. Take a look at this comparison between Upton and a Hall of Fame outfielder, through their respective age 29 seasons.

WP Table Builder

The mystery Hall of Famer is….

Reggie Jackson, who completed his age 29 season in 1975, his last campaign with the Oakland Athletics. Overall, Jackson was a much better player in his 20’s than Upton. His OPS+ was 150, compared to Upton’s 121. My point is that Upton, because he started his career at the age of 19, has the time to put up some impressive counting stats and hitting behind Trout will help him count them.

Hall of Fame odds — 10%

Not included in this list of Angels is shortstop Andrelton Simmons. He’s been a wizard defensively and, in his age 27 seasons last year, started to develop as a hitter of significance. The Curacao product has a Career WAR of 28.6 after just 5+ seasons in the majors, thanks to off-the-charts defensive metrics. For me, it’s too early to start predicting a Hall of Fame future

Texas Rangers

After winning the A.L. West in manager Jeff Banister’s first two seasons, the 2017 Texas Rangers regressed to 78-84 in 2017, finishing tied for 3rd in the division. It was such a poor season that the team’s third most productive player (as ranked by WAR) only played 94 games due to the injury.

One player you will not see on this list is Bartolo Colon, the 44-year old veteran in camp with the Rangers this spring. Yes, he’s the active leader in MLB with 240 wins, which is 14 fewer that recently inducted Jack Morris, who is fourth on Big Bart’s “Similarity Score” list. His career ERA is 4.04, but that’s only 14 points higher than Morris’ 3.90. He won 20 games twice. Yes, he won a Cy Young Award in 2005.

Colon also has a PED suspension on his resume, which puts a blight on his one Cooperstown worthy campaign of the last 12 years (2012 with Oakland, in which he went 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA). Morris never made it via the BBWAA despite the intangible of 3 World Series rings including the epic Game 7 shutout in 1991.

Bartolo isn’t going to make it with lesser regular seasons stats, a drug suspension and no post-season bling to brag about.

That’s not to say that, as a fan of the New York Mets, that I’m not a huge fan of Big Sexy. He was a useful member of the Mets’ staff and, though a career .085 hitter, every at bat was must-see TV. But he has no chance of getting to the Hall of Fame.

Adrian Beltre (38 years old):

• Career: 462 HR, 1,642 RBI, 3,048 hits, .287 BA, 117 OPS+, 93.9 WAR
• 93.9 career WAR is 3rd best all-time for third basemen (Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews)
• 229.7 career WAR runs above average from fielding (2nd best all time among third basemen to Brooks Robinson)

In 2004, at the age of 25, Adrian Beltre became a superstar with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He hit 48 home runs with 121 RBI, a .334 average and an OPS+ of 163. Were it not for the enhanced performance of Bonds, he would have won the MVP. Beltre parlayed that campaign into a 5-year, $64 million contract with the Seattle Mariners.

Although he contributed defensively, winning two Gold Gloves, Beltre’s years in Seattle were considered a bust. In 2009, his age 30 season, Beltre hit just 8 home runs with 44 RBI (and a woeful 83 OPS+) in 111 games.

If you had asked 100 baseball writers after 2009 whether Adrian Beltre would be a future Hall of Famer, you would likely have gotten 100 “no’s.” He had quite a few taters (250 at the time) and 1,700 hits but he seemed to be severely on the decline.

As we know, Beltre’s “second career” (one year in Boston and seven in Texas) has been superlative. After logging a mediocre 105 OPS+ for the first 12 years of his career, his OPS+ has been an excellent 133 for the last 8 campaigns.

Here’s a little game of “Who am I?” among MLB third basemen. Which one of these players is Adrian Beltre and who are the other three?

WP Table Builder

It’s hard to tell, isn’t it? Here’s a hint: the other three players are Scott Rolen, Ron Santo and Wade Boggs.

Got it?

Give up yet?

OK, here are the names:

WP Table Builder

According to the Baseball Reference statistic “WAR runs above average from fielding), Beltre is 2nd best to the Human Vacuum Cleaner himself (Brooks Robinson) when it comes to defensive prowess at the hot corner. And yet, his 5 Gold Glove awards are less than the 6 owned by Rolen, Eric Chavez, Robin Ventura, and Buddy Bell.

The good news is that, at this stage of his career, the debate over where Beltre ranks defensively is functionally irrelevant to his Hall of Fame case. He has 3,048 career hits, 2nd only to George Brett among 3rd sackers. His 462 home runs rank 4th all-time at the position, behind only Schmidt, Mathews and recently inducted Chipper Jones.

Beltre is not in the same league as Chipper as a batter. Jones has a superior slash line (BA/OBP/SLG) all across the board. But Chipper never won a Gold Glove. Beltre has 5 and is 38 blasts away from 500 career home runs.

Beltre will turn 39 in early April and only has one year left on his contract so it’s not certain he’ll get to 500 long balls. But it doesn’t matter. Just as it was with Chipper, Adrian Beltre will be first ballot Hall of Famer.

Hall of Fame odds — 100%

Cole Hamels (34 years old):

• Career: 147-102 (.490 WL%), 3.37 ERA, 124 ERA+, 52.7 WAR
• 4-time All-Star
• MVP of 2008 NLCS and World Series for the Philadelphia Phillies (4-0, 1.80 ERA in 5 post-season starts in ’08)

Cole Hamels, after his third MLB season, sure looked like a Hall of Famer in the making. The young lefty had just led the Phillies to their first championship in 28 years. Hamels had, at the age of 24, just gone 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 227.1 innings, leading the National League with a 1.082 WHIP.

In 2009, he wasn’t the same. He posted a 4.32 ERA in 193.2 innings and was terrible in October, going 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA in 4 starts.

Right now, at 34, Hamels doesn’t look like a Hall of Famer. In 2017, his injury-plagued age 33 season, he went 11-6 with a 4.20 ERA in 148 innings. It was the first time Hamels failed to log 200 innings since 2009.

Only 4 Cooperstown-enshrined starting pitchers had fewer than Hamels’ 147 wins through their age 33 seasons. However, by the time Hamels is retired and eligible for the Hall, a pitcher’s wins likely won’t be considered with the importance that they have been in the past. He has these three factors in his favor, with the caveat that he will have to pitch more like the Hamels of 2016 (15-5, 3.32 ERA) than the mediocre version of 2017.

1. Having spent his entire career pitching in hitters’ parks, Hamels’ career ERA+ of 124 is excellent. It’s tied for 2nd place with Verlander among active hurlers with at least 2,000 innings pitched (behind Felix Hernandez).
2. His career WAR is 52.7. If he authors more solid seasons and finishes with a career WAR of 70 or better, his Cooperstown candidacy will look very strong.
3. Hamels and Verlander are the only two starting pitchers to log over 200 innings 7 times in the last 8 years.

Cole Hamels is a left-handed starter who can throw a fastball, cutter, sinker, curve or change-up. He’s not an aging starter who relied on a blazing fastball (he’s always been in the low 90’s). With multiple ways to get batters out, an intelligent pitcher like Hamels could age well and finish his career with some interesting numbers.

Hall of Fame odds — 33%

Elvis Andrus (29 years old)

• Career: 1,457 hits, 266 SB, .277 BA, 89 OPS+, 28.8 WAR
• 2-time All-Star

OK, you’re thinking now that Chris Bodig has lost his marbles. Hear me out.

On April 1st, 2013, when the Texas Rangers signed shortstop Elvis Andrus to a 8-year, $120 million contract extension, I thought it was an April Fools’ joke. To me, it was too big a bet on a player whose primary value was with the glove and his legs. In 2013, the young Venezuelan shortstop had his third straight season with a WAR of 4 or better. With 9 more years of that level of productivity, the contract would have been a steal for Texas.

But that’s not what happened. In 2014, according to the metrics, Andrus regressed badly defensively. As a base-runner, after stealing 42 out of 50 bases in ’13, he was only 27 for 42 in ’14.

After another mediocre season in 2015, his career OPS+ was a really poor 83 and he wasn’t providing close to Gold Glove caliber defense.

Everything changed in 2016. Andrus showed vastly more discipline at the plate. And then, in 2017, he displayed previously untapped power, setting career highs in home runs, RBI, doubles, slugging percentage and runs scored. Take a look at the average season authored by Andrus in the first 7 seasons of his career compared to his productivity in the last two.

WP Table Builder

According to Stephen Young of the Dallas Observer, the improvement Andrus has shown at the plate is a result of manager Jeff Banister’s encouragement to Andrus to try to drive and elevate the ball. The Rangers’ previous skipper Ron Washington had strongly encouraged Andrus to hit the ball on the ground and bunt a lot.

Given that he’s only 29 years old and already has 1,457 major league hits, if Andrus can remain a productive hitter, he could pass 3,000 hits and, as unthinkable as it was a couple of years ago, be a Hall of Famer. I would bet heavily against it, but the impossible is now possible.

Hall of Fame odds — 15% (why so high? It’s because Bill James has a formula that estimates that Andrus has a 21% chance of reaching 3,000 hits. I’m putting his odds at less than that because future voters might not be as swayed by the 3,000 hit milestone if not accompanied by other credentials as the voters of the past have been).

Seattle Mariners

Since their 116-win team of 2001, the Seattle Mariners have been on the outside looking in when it comes to baseball’s post-season party. The team has had 10 managers from 2002-2017 and the longest current playoff drought among the 30 MLB clubs.

2001 was the rookie campaign for then 27-year old Ichiro Suzuki. The pride of the nation of Japan signed a one-year contract last Wednesday to return to his U.S. baseball home.

Ichiro Suzuki (44 years old)

• Career: .312 BA, 3,080 hits, 509 SB, 107 OPS+, 59.6 WAR
• 2001 A.L. MVP and Rookie of the Year (.350 BA, 242 hits, 56 SB)
• 10-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove winner

Five years after the year that Ichiro Suzuki decides to finally retire, he will become the first Japanese-born player to be elected to the Hall of Fame. From the moment he arrived in Peoria, Arizona for Spring Training with the Seattle Mariners in 2001, Ichiro was worldwide phenomenon.

In the previous few seasons and off-seasons, the M’s had traded franchise icons Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. Edgar Martinez was still there but Ichiro was the star in Seattle before he ever swung the bat or took the field for a game. Dozens, maybe a hundred reporters, photographers and cameramen from the Orient’s baseball-obsessed country followed Ichiro’s every move that spring.

Ichiro, of course, delivered on the hype, leading the league in hits, batting average and stolen bases in his MVP/Rookie of the Year campaign. For 9 consecutive seasons thereafter, Ichiro kept delivering 200+ hits with a .300+ average.

He’s the only player in baseball history to post 10 consecutive campaigns of at least 200 hits and a .300 batting average. In 2004, his best season, Ichiro hit .372 while piling up 262 hits, the most for a single season in the history of baseball.

From 2011-2017 (with the M’s, New York Yankees and Florida Marlins), Ichiro has been a low-impact player, posting a .269 BA with a 84 OPS+. When Cooperstown comes calling, thoughts about the bench player that he has become will not linger. What he accomplished in the first 10 years of his career (.331 BA, averaged 224 hits and 38 SB per year) will be good enough for a first-ballot election.

Hall of Fame odds — 100%

Robinson Cano (35 years old)

• Career: 301 HR, 1,183 RBI, 2,376 hits, .305 BA, 126 OPS+, 65.7 WAR
• 8-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove winner, 5-time Silver Slugger winner

There’s not much to analyze here. Sometime in the next 10-to-20 years, depending on how long he plays, Robinson Cano will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. If Cano were to retire tomorrow, he would very likely be a Hall of Famer. He and Rogers Hornsby are the only two 2nd sackers in MLB history to hit over 250 home runs, drive in more than 1,000, hit over .300 and post an OPS+ of 120 or greater.

Of course, Cano is not about to retire, not at the age of 35, not with 6 years left on his $240 contract with the Seattle Mariners. Assuming he stays healthy, Cano will likely surpass 3,000 hits in 2021 or 2022, likely around the same time he passes 400 home runs.

Cano’s eventual place in Cooperstown is all but assured.

Hall of Fame odds — 98% (only way he doesn’t make it is if he truly stinks up the joint for 6 years while earning his remaining $144 million)

Felix Hernandez (31 years old)

• Career: 160-114 (.584 WL%), 3.20 ERA, 125 ERA+, 52.2 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• 2010 A.L. Cy Young Award winner, three other times in Top 4

Felix Hernandez made his major league debut in 2005, at the tender age of 19. By the time he was 23, he was a legitimate superstar. He went 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA and finished 2nd in the A.L. Cy Young Award voting to Zack Greinke.

The next year (2010), he won the Award despite a 13-12 record, the voters choosing instead to honor him for his league-leading 2.27 ERA.

Overall, for 7 years from 2009 to 2015, King Felix was the 2nd best pitcher in baseball, 2nd only to Clayton Kershaw. After his age 29 season (2015), in which he went 18-9 with a 3.53 ERA, Hernandez looked like he was on a clear track to Cooperstown.

Unfortunately, the train to the Hall of Fame has been derailed in Hernandez’ last two injury-plagued campaigns, In particular, 2017 was a lost season due to shoulder woes; he went 6-5 with a 4.36 ERA in just 86.2 innings.

Whether King Felix has a Hall of Fame plaque in his future will depend on whether he can return to at least being a dependable 2nd or 3rd starter, if not an ace.

Baseball history if filled with pitchers who were dominant in their 20’s and serviceable enough in their 30’s to eventually make it Cooperstown. It’s also filled with pitchers who fell off a cliff and into baseball oblivion in their 30’s.

For the record, here is a side-by-side comparison of Hernandez, Hamels, Verlander and Greinke. King Felix is the youngest of this group (listed at 31 but he’ll turn 32 in April) but he’s the one with the biggest question mark next to his name entering the 2018 season.

WP Table Builder

Hall of Fame odds — 50% (I would have had it at 65% a couple of years ago. Hopefully he’ll turn around my current pessimism).

Nelson Cruz (37 years old)

• 323 HR, 914 RBI, 1,447 hits, 129 OPS+, 30.3 WAR
• 5-time All-Star

Even if he didn’t have a PED suspension on his record, Nelson Cruz would be the longest of longshots to make the Hall of Fame. He didn’t become a regular player until a few months before his 28th birthday. In that breakout campaign (2009), Cruz became the everyday right fielder for the Texas Rangers and blasted 33 home runs, albeit with just 76 RBI.

In five seasons with the Rangers from 2009-2013, Cruz averaged 27 home runs with 81 RBI and a 119 OPS+, respectable numbers to be sure but hardly of superstar quality.

What the powerful right-handed hitter known as Boomstick has done in the last four seasons, on the other hand, is spectacular. From 2014-2017 (one year in Baltimore, three in Seattle), Cruz has averaged 42 HR with 106 RBI and a 147 OPS+.

Imagine for a moment If Cruz, now a full-time DH, were to have a David Ortiz-esque end to his career. What if Cruz were able to duplicate his 2014-2017 performance in his age 37-40 seasons (2018-2021)? If he were to do that, he would be sitting at 489 home runs at the end of his age 40 season.

Now, it is an extraordinarily tall order to imagine Cruz actually doing this but that’s the path for him. Get to 500 home runs, maybe get back to the post-season and have an October “moment” and who knows?

Hall of Fame odds — 1%

Oakland Athletics

The 2018 edition of the Oakland Athletics has several young players worth getting excited about but nobody with the kind of longevity needed to even start speculating about a plaque in Cooperstown. A’s fans can look forward to a full season of a big young left-handed slugger, Matt Olson. Left fielder Khris Davis has produced back-to-back 40+ HR campaigns but he’s only played five seasons in the majors and is already 30 years old.

 

In the next installment of the potential Hall of Famers among today’s active MLB players, we’ll take a look at the National League West.

Thanks for reading.  Please follow me on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Chris Bodig