Bobby Grich: The Hidden Game of Baseball Hall of Fame Candidate

At first glance at his statistics, there is nothing about Bobby Grich that screams “Hall of Fame” in neon lights. He was an excellent defensive second basemen who won 4 Gold Gloves, but five other second basemen have also done that and five others have won more. Some of his basic career totals (.266 BA, 1,833 Hits, 864 RBI, 104 SB) seem quite ordinary. In fact, the list of Hall of Famers (at any position) with a batting average less than .270 along with fewer than 2,000 hits, 900 RBI and 150 stolen bases is a list that contains no names.

In spite of these pedestrian career totals, two leading sabermetric sites (Baseball Reference and FanGraphs) list Grich as the 8th best second baseman in baseball history by Wins Above Replacement. Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe, who writes for FanGraphs and has a JAWS formula listed on Baseball Reference, also has Grich as the 8th most worthy player to ever to man the position.

In his 2019 Bill James Handbook, the author (the godfather of sabermetrics) listed Grich as the 5th best position player missing from the Hall.

At a 2015 conference I attended in Phoenix for the Society of American Baseball Research, a panel of baseball experts was convened. John Thorn (MLB’s Official Baseball Historian), when asked if there was one player absent Cooperstown who should be reconsidered for the honor, responded with the name “Bobby Grich.” In the Appendix of the 2015 re-release of Thorn’s and Pete Palmer’s landmark 1984 book The Hidden Game of Baseball, Palmer’s linear weights formula lists Grich as the 5th best second baseman and 35th best player in baseball history (through the 2014 season).

Grich is the ultimate Hall of Fame candidate whose credentials need to be uncovered because they are hidden from a cursory view. He is the truly the “hidden game of baseball” Cooperstown candidate.

Cooperstown Cred: Bobby Grich (2B)

• Baltimore Orioles (1970-76), California Angels (1977-86)
• Career: .266 BA, .371 OBP, .424 SLG, 224 HR, 864 RBI
• Career: 125 OPS+, 71.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 6-time All-Star
• 4-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Led A.L. 2B in assists, putouts and DPs turned (1973-75)

(cover photo: MLB/Louis Requena)

No Hall of Fame Respect for Bobby Grich from the BBWAA

Five years and a couple of months after the end of his playing career, Bobby Grich appeared on the 1992 Hall of Fame ballot voted on by the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America). He got 11 out of a possible 430 votes; the measly 2.6% total meant that Grich would never appear on a BBWAA ballot again, since he didn’t meet the 5% threshold required for another appearance.

If you look at the previous classes of first ballot candidates, Grich’s timing was lousy. The 1990 ballot featured Joe Morgan, arguably the best second basemen in baseball’s last 100 years. In 1991, Rod Carew was on the ballot. Both players went into the Hall of Fame on the first try.

Let’s be honest. In 1992, most Hall of Fame voters weren’t especially sophisticated in how they analyzed the careers of Hall of Fame candidates. Players were evaluated on Batting Average (how many .300 seasons), HR, RBI, Hits (how many 200-hit seasons), SB, accolades (like MVP Awards or Gold Gloves) and participation on World Championship teams.

Bill James, in one of his 1980’s Baseball Abstract’s, developed a system to predict if a player would make the Hall of Fame by assigning points to accomplishments that are typical of players enshrined in Cooperstown. So, for instance, in this Hall of Fame Monitor, a player would earn 2.5 points for every season in which he hit over .300, 5 points for each 200-hit season, 3 points for each All-Star Game, and so on. In James’ formula, which he stated at the time was designed to predict who would make the Hall, not necessarily who should, Grich earned only 42 points. The system stated that somebody with 100 points was a “likely” Hall of Famer. 42 is obviously way less than 100. This is why Grich got nowhere.

He never got 200 hits, only hit .300 once, only drove in 100 runs once, never scored 100; his career marks were also lacking. It’s not remotely surprising that what made Grich great was hidden from the eyes of those voting for baseball’s ultimate shrine.

“I had a high on-base percentage. I got a lot of walks and scored a good amount of runs, especially my years in Baltimore when I was batting second most of those years. So I think those things, defense and walks and on-base percentage, especially in the ‘80s, it was not really talked about, not paid attention to. It was home runs, batting average and RBIs, and those were the metrics that everybody was pretty much measured by.”

— Bobby Grich (to Graham Womack of The Sporting News, February 2016)

In this piece, I’ll first share a recap of Grich’s 17-year career and then tackle the ultimate question about whether he deserves to make the Hall of Fame.

Bobby Grich: High School and Early Baseball Career

Although Robert Anthony Grich was born in Muskegon, Michigan (on January 15, 1949) he was a Southern California kid, spending most of his formative years in Long Beach, California. Grich was a two-sport star at Woodrow Wilson High School, excelling at both baseball and football. An excellent high school quarterback, Grich was heavily recruited by UCLA coach Tommy Prothro, who had led the Bruins to their first Rose Bowl title in January 1966.

In 1967, during Grich’s senior year, Prothro, who would later coach both the L.A. Rams and San Diego Chargers in the NFL, promised Grich a “clean shot at the Heisman Trophy” by his senior year. Around the same time, the Baltimore Orioles selected Grich as a shortstop with the 19th overall pick in the 3rd ever amateur player draft.

Grich chose a $40,000 signing bonus over the UCLA scholarship and signed with the Orioles. He moved slowly up the organizational ladder in his early years, playing in Bluefield, WV (rookie ball) in 1967. Stockton, CA (A ball) in ’68 and Dallas-Fort Worth (AA) in ’69. In 1970, his fourth minor league season (with the AAA Rochester Red Wings), Grich was moved from shortstop to second base and was hitting .383 when he was first called up to the majors by the Orioles, in late June.

Despite decent size for a middle infielder (6’2″, 180 pounds), the 21-year old Grich had yet to develop the kind of power he would later show in Major League Baseball. In his first go-around with Earl Weaver’s powerhouse Orioles (who were the defending A.L. pennant-winners with 109 wins in ’69 and were in the midst of a 108-win campaign in ’70), Grich was purely a backup infielder; he hit just .211 with no home runs in 104 plate appearances. He did not participate in the playoff party, in which the O’s would win the World Series.

Blocked at second base by future MLB manager Davey Johnson, at shortstop by slick-fielding Mark Belanger, at third base by future Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson, and at first base by 1970 A.L. MVP Boog Powell, Grich did not make the O’s in the spring of 1971; he was instead sent back to Rochester.

Grich had originally been taught by the O’s to choke up on the bat and punch singles but Weaver sent him back to AAA with marching orders to try to start pulling the ball for power. The result was that Bobby Grich became of baseball’s top minor league stars. Back at shortstop, he slashed .336/.439/.632 with the Red Wings, hitting 32 HR with 83 RBI en route to the International League MVP trophy.

1972: Oriole All-Star

In the spring of 1972 (Grich’s age 23 season), Weaver made room for the right-handed hitting infielder on the MLB roster, even though the team still had the same three Gold Glove infielders and Powell blocking his playing time. Grich became a super-sub and wound up starting 123 games (78 at shortstop, 48 at second base, 17 at first base and 8 at the hot corner).

Grich played well enough that Weaver made him a last-minute selection to the All-Star squad when starter Luis Aparicio and backup Toby Harrah were both hurt and couldn’t play. Although he had started only 32 games at the position in the first half of the season, Grich wound up starting the Mid-Summer Classic for the American League. Grich played all 10 innings in the A.L.’s 4-3 loss, even while going 0 for 4.

16 of Grich’s 33 first half starts at shortstop came in the first 23 days of July, thanks to Belanger’s miserable season with the stick (he was hitting .175 with a woeful .474 OPS through the end of June). Grich started virtually every game in the 2nd half of the season, mostly over Belanger but also at 2nd base over Johnson, who slumped to a .197 BA (.563 OPS) in the 2nd half of his campaign.

Overall, the ’72 Orioles could pick it, helping the staff to a 2.53 ERA but, outside of Grich and Powell, the team followed Belanger and Johnson into a collective hitting slump, resulting in a disappointing 3rd place finish in the A.L. East. The Birds’ overall team BA was .229, with a woeful .339 slugging percentage. Grich finished the season with a .278/.358/.415 slash line to go with 12 home runs and 50 RBI.

Thanks to his all-around game of solid offense and defense, Grich posted a 6.0 WAR, 5th best in the league. Although that metric was decades away from coming into existence, some of the writers noticed Bobby’s all-around game and conferred a 14th place MVP finish upon the rookie infielder.

1973: All-Time Great Defensive Season at 2nd Base

The Orioles made room for a full-time job for their star infielder by trading Johnson to the Atlanta Braves in the off-season; this made Bobby Grich the team’s full-time second sacker. Although the move appeared to be a bad one initially (Johnson unexpectedly hit a whopping 43 taters in Atlanta), Grich did his part by establishing himself as a premier player.

In his first full-time season as Baltimore’s starting second baseman, Grich had one of the all-time great defensive seasons at the position. It was something that did not happen by accident. He told The Sporting News that, now that he was settled at one position, he could “perfect four or five [different kinds of pivots]—crossing the bag with either foot, straddling the base, the jump throw, and moving back. Also, coming across the base on the move.”

Starting all 162 games in 1973, Grich led all MLB second basemen in fielding % (.9947), assists (509), putouts (431) and DP’s turned (130). With just five errors, Grich posted the best fielding percentage for a second sacker in the history of baseball. What makes it all that more impressive is that he did it while fielding 940 total chances.

“Nobody put more effort into defense than I did. One year (1973) I made five errors, and I remember every one. I was never satisfied.”

— Bobby Grich (to Mike Klingaman of The Baltimore Sun, July 2015)

Offensively, Grich still had yet to blossom fully, although he was more effective than some realized at the time. He had 107 walks and a .373 on-base%, the 2nd best in the A.L. for a middle infielder, behind only future Hall of Famer Rod Carew. Still, what people noticed at the time were his three traditional statistics (.251 BA, 12 HR, 50 RBI), which underwhelmed. Where Grich excelled was at things that were the “hidden game of baseball.”

Although Grich helped the O’s to the A.L. East title, the team fell in the ALCS to the defending World Champion Oakland Athletics, with Grich hitting a disappointing .100 in the 5-game series loss. Bobby had the unfortunate “honor” of making the final out in the O’s 3-0 Game 5 loss to the A’s.

Anyway, thanks to his underrated offensive value and off-the-charts defensive excellence, today Grich is credited with a 8.3 WAR for his ’73 efforts, best in the A.L. for position players. Even though Grich’s defensive excellence was noticed at the time (he was awarded the first of four consecutive Gold Gloves), he was not rewarded financially. In the off-season, the O’s second sacker asked for a raise from $38,000 to $49,000, and Orioles General Manager Frank Cashen balked. Grich wound up with $46,000 for 1974, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

“He degraded me so bad at the negotiation table and said, ‘We do not pay for defense. You didn’t hit this, you didn’t hit that. We pay for offense only.’ I was astounded, and I was offended to be very honest with you.”

— Bobby Grich (to Graham Womack of The Sporting News, February 2016)

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Did Bobby Grich Deserve the 1973 MVP?

We’re going to interrupt the timeline of Bobby Grich’s career to answer this question, because it certainly would have helped Grich’s Hall of Fame worthiness if we can make the case that he deserved a MVP trophy.

As we’ve just noted, Grich led all American League position players in WAR in 1973, with 8.3 Wins Above Replacement. He led the league in WAR despite his woeful Triple Crown stats (.251 BA, 12 HR, 50 RBI).

Is Grich’s league-leading WAR explainable with traditional statistics? What is the “hidden game” that WAR sees in Bobby Grich’s 1973 season? It starts with his off-the-charts defensive metrics. To repeat, he posted what was then the highest fielding percentage in baseball history for a second baseman. In addition, he led the league in Assists, Putouts and Double Plays turned. This was the part of Grich’s that wasn’t completely hidden; he did earn the Gold Glove Award.

What about his offense, which looks weak based on the Triple Crown stats? You might be surprised to learn that Grich’s Offensive WAR (5.1) was tied for the 9th highest in the A.L. Now, it should be noted that oWAR involves a positional adjustment, which gives high value to playing a middle infield position.

Even so, the batting component (Rbat) of WAR lists Grich as the 20th best A.L. hitter, regardless of what position he was playing. What numbers drove that ranking? Well, it starts with Grich’s 107 walks drawn, 2nd most in the league. He was hit by a pitch 7 times, tied for the 9th most. So, despite his low BA, Grich reached base 260 times, the fourth most in the A.L. and only 7 times fewer than Carew, who hit .350. His on-base% was 8th best in the league even while his batting average was just 39th out of 58. Additionally, Grich only grounded into 7 double plays, the 3rd fewest among the 38 right-handed batters who qualified for the batting title.

Walks, HBP, low DP rate. These are the hidden things that boosted Grich’s offensive value.

“Does it matter how you got to first base? Does it matter if you walked or if you got a hit, unless of course there’s a man on second base or third base to get the RBI? To get to first base anyway you can, a walk is as good as a hit lots of times.”

— Bobby Grich (to Graham Womack of The Sporting News, February 2016)

Grich’s statement here is correct. It doesn’t matter whether you get to first base via a walk or a hit. But, of course, that’s true unless there’s a man on second or third base, a great RBI opportunity. How do we reconcile Grich’s paltry total of 50 ribbies?

The answer is, we can’t.

Grich hit 12 home runs in 1973, 9 of them in his 397 Plate Appearances with the bases empty and only 3 in his 303 PA with runners on base.

With runners in scoring position (191 PA), Grich hit just .213 with a .287 slugging percentage. Yes, he did walk 34 times but had only 38 RBI in those 191 PA.

Compare this to Reggie Jackson, who in real life was the A.L. MVP. Reggie hit .293 with a .383 OBP, 32 HR and 117 RBI. Jackson got his 117 RBI in 629 Plate Appearances (a ratio of 0.19 RBI per PA in all of his plate appearances). Grich posted a ratio of 0.20 RBI per PA with runners on second or third base! What did Reggie do with runners in scoring position? He slashed .340/.424/.647, driving in 90 runs in 184 PA.

So, to answer the question at the top of this section, Grich had an excellent 1973 campaign but not one worthy of a MVP award. Here endeth the tangent.

1974-76: Three More Gold Gloves

As we return to the timeline of Bobby Grich’s career, he had breakout season offensively in 1974. Grich hit .353 in April and finished the first half of the season with a .288/.391/507 slash line to go with 15 HR and 54 RBI (both career highs already set by early July).

Although he faded offensively in the second half of the campaign, Grich’s 19 HR and 82 RBI were easily the best for all 2nd sackers. He won his second Gold Glove and finished 9th in the MVP voting. Grich’s 484 putouts in 1974 are the 2nd most for a second baseman in baseball history, behind only Bid McPhee‘s 529 in 1886.

Although Grich helped Baltimore to another division title, the O’s again fell short to the A’s. Grich went 2 for 4 with a home run, double and 2 RBI in the Birds’ Game 1 victory but then went 2 for 12 in Games 2 through 4, all losses.

Grich didn’t match his ’74 HR and RBI numbers in 1975 and ’76 but continued to provide excellent offense from a key defensive position while winning Gold Glove Awards #3 and #4. In ’76, with Carew having moved to first base, Grich was the starter again in the All-Star Game. The Orioles, however, fell short of the playoffs in both seasons.

Back to Orange County: Bobby Grich an Angel

With Carew no longer playing the position, Bobby Grich had become the American League’s premier second baseman and, after the 1976 season, a free agent. In The Cooperstown Casebook, Jay Jaffe quotes Earl Weaver in a Sporting News piece calling Grich “as good as any and probably the best ballplayer in the American League.”

Despite the endorsement from Weaver, the Orioles didn’t do much to sign Grich, with the two most serious bidders being the California Angels and the defending A.L. pennant winners, the New York Yankees. With a strong desire to get back home to Southern California, Grich accepted less money to sign with the Angels than he would have earned with the Yankees. He was tabbed to move to shortstop for the Angels, who had a good fielding second baseman (Jerry Remy) in place at the position.

The SoCal boy coming home should have had a storybook beginning. Grich was 28 years old, single, and sported a mustache that gave him a look a bit like movie star Burt Reynolds or, as writer Dick Miller noted, the Marlboro man. Ultimately, the story got off to a bad start. Grich injured his back in the off-season by attempting to carry a heavy air conditioner up a flight of stairs. Two years later, he joked that he was trying to get into the Guinness Book of World Records in the category “most yards covered by a Yugoslavian second baseman carrying a heavy air-conditioning unit.”

Despite spending much of spring training in traction, the Angels’ new shortstop was able to make the lineup on Opening Day; however, he was clearly not operating at peak efficiency. In his 52nd game of the season, Grich hit a 13th inning walk-off home run but could barely get around the bases. It was his last game of the year. A few weeks later, Grich had season-ending surgery to repair a herniated lumbar disk in his ailing back.

Grich returned to a full-time role in 1978 (at second base, with Remy having been traded to the Red Sox) but was a shell of his former self, not having fully recovered from his back injury. In 144 games, Grich hit .251 but with a career-worst .329 slugging percentage (6 HR, 16 doubles, just 42 RBI).

1979: A Star Reborn

After a heavy off-season weight lifting regimen, Bobby Grich returned to his former All-Star self in 1979 and, though he was hitting mostly 7th or 8th in the lineup, had the best offensive season of his career. Grich finished 8th in the MVP voting, thanks to career highs in BA (.294), HR (30) and RBI (101). His .537 slugging percentage was over 100 points better than his previous high water mark.

The Angels showed the baseball world that they needed to be taken seriously as A.L. West contenders in a 3-game series in Anaheim right before the All-Star break against the three-time defending A.L. champion New York Yankees. The Angels won the first game on Friday behind on a one-hitter by future Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan. On Saturday night, another future Hall of Famer (Goose Gossage) blew a 3-run 9th inning lead when Don Baylor hit a 3-run home run (the Angels won in 12 innings).

On a Sunday afternoon in front of over 40,000 fans, the Angels were facing the reigning Cy Young champ, Ron Guidry, who had struck out 18 Halos at Yankee Stadium 13 months prior to this tilt. This was a game that would ultimately be dominated by the Angels’ second sacker. After a 3rd inning RBI single, Grich delivered a 2-run double in the 7th to cut a 3-run Yankee lead to a single run. Finally, with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning, Grich tagged Guidry for a 2-run, walk-off home run to give the Angels a 5-4 win and a sweep. Grich called the ovation he received while rounding the bases after the walk-off blast “the biggest thrill of my life.”

According to “Win Probability Added” (WPA) and the Baseball Reference play index, Grich’s 5 RBI game yielded the 9th highest single-game position player WPA in baseball history. See the Glossary to understand the significance of WPA. 

Two days later, the Halos had a whopping 6 All-Stars in Seattle’s Kingdome: Baylor and Ryan were starters, with Grich, catcher Brian Downing, first baseman Rod Carew (in his first season in California) and reliever Mark Clear rounding out the California sextet.

Led by Grich and Baylor’s MVP campaign (.293 BA, 36 HR, 139 RBI), the Angels won their first-ever A.L. West title. After winning the West, Grich famously poured a beer over the head of former President Richard Nixon, a close friend of team owner Gene Autry.

Matched up in the ALCS against Grich and Baylor’s former team, the Orioles, the Angels fell in 4 games, with Grich hitting just .154.

1980-82: Strike in ’81 Curtails Grich’s Superb Campaign

Grich had another solid season in 1980 (.271 BA, 14 HR, 62 RBI) but not one remotely as good as he had had in ’79. Meanwhile, Baylor and catcher Brian Downing had injury-plagued campaigns while Nolan Ryan was gone (having signed a free agent deal with his hometown Houston Astros). The Angels fell all the way from 88 wins in ’79 to 65 in ’80.

In 1981, Grich had a career year, one that was sadly shortened by the players’ strike. He hit over .300 for the first time (.304) while slugging 22 home runs, which tied for the A.L. lead, to go with 61 RBI and a league-best .543 slugging percentage. With the team finishing under .500 again, Grich’s season resulted in just a 14th place finish in the MVP vote.

Reggie Jackson, Grich’s teammate in Baltimore in 1976, joined the Angels in 1982, as did Doug DeCinces, who had been Brooks Robinson’s replacement at the hot corner. With Carew at first, Fred Lynn in center field and Downing (in LF) and Baylor (the DH) healthy again, California had a powerhouse offense in Gene Mauch’s first full season as team skipper. Grich did his part (.261 BA, .371 OBP, 19 HR, 65 RBI) while serving once again as the Junior Circuit’s starting All-Star second baseman. The Angels as a team scored the second most runs in the league en route to another A.L. West crown.

In October, the Angels lost to the Milwaukee Brewers in a 5-game series, with Grich struggling at the plate once again (.200 BA, .600 OPS).

1983-86: Final Years

Bobby Grich had another excellent campaign with the bat in 1983 (.292 BA, 16 HR, 62 RBI with a career-best .414 OBP) although a fracture in his left hand after being hit by a pitch on August 28th ended his season prematurely. In the meantime, with Reggie having a horrible season (.194 BA, 14 HR, 49 RBI) and the pitching staff posting a 4.31 ERA, the Angels finished 70-92.

Various ailments limited Grich to 116 games in 1984, in which he delivered a highly respectable 18 HR and 58 RBI.

In 1985, the Angels improved to 90 wins, nearly capturing the A.L. West crown. Grich, now 36 years old, was healthy enough to play 144 games but had an off-year offensively, hitting .242 with 13 HR and 53 RBI. His .355 OBP was the lowest of his career as a full-time player. With the leather, however, Grich was vintage. With just 2 errors in 953.1 innings at second base, his .9967 fielding percentage in ’85 broke his own record as the best fielding percentage in baseball history for a second sacker.

In 1986, Grich managed to play only 98 games (.268 BA, 9 HR, 30 RBI), closing with a woeful .219 BA (with 1 HR, 8 RBI) in his final 116 plate appearances. The Angels, filled with veterans, managed to win 92 games and the A.L. West.

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Bobby Grich’s Last Hurrah: the 1986 ALCS

The 1986 American League Championship Series, against the Boston Red Sox would represent the final games of Bobby Grich’s 17-year Major League Baseball career.

Grich was on the bench in Game 1, a 8-1 victory in which Mike Witt out-pitched Roger Clemens, who would become the A.L. MVP and Cy Young Award winner.

Grich was back in the lineup for Game 2 and went 2 for 4. It was with the glove, however, that the normally sure-handed Grich made news. In the bottom of the 5th inning, with the score tied at 2, Grich couldn’t handle a pop fly by Dwight Evans; Grich wasn’t charged with an error but the RBI double gave Boston a 3-2 lead. In the top of the next frame, he was thrown out at home while trying to score the tying run. Then, in the 7th, with the Angels trailing 3-2, Bill Buckner reached on an error by Grich. With another error by DeCinces three batters later, the Sox scored 3 runs in the inning, leading to an ultimate 9-2 victory.

After the Angels won Game 3, in the pivotal Game 4, the game went to extra innings. In the bottom of the 11th, in what would ultimately be his fourth to last ever game, Bobby Grich had the biggest signature moment of his career, delivering a walk-off RBI single to hand the Angels a 4-3 victory. The game winning RBI gave the Angels a 3-1 series lead and put the team on the brink of the World Series.

Game 5 set up other potential hero moments for Bobby Grich. In the bottom of the 6th inning, with his team trailing 2-1, Grich hit a 2-run home run off Bruce Hurst. The tater, which was nearly caught by Red Sox center fielder Dave Henderson, gave the Halos a 3-2 edge with 3 innings to go. The Angels added two runs in the bottom of the 7th. Had the 17-year veteran delivered the key blow that would deliver the Halos to the Fall Classic?

The answer is “no,” as we know. Starter Witt entered the 9th with a 5-2 lead. After a single and strikeout, former Angel Baylor hit a 2-run homer to close the score to 5-4. Three batters later, Henderson hit one of the famous home runs in postseason history, a 2-run blast off reliever Donnie Moore. Although the Sox now had a 6-5 lead, Rob Wilfong delivered a RBI single in the bottom of the frame to tie the score at 6. Four batters later, with 2 outs and the bases loaded, Grich had a chance to be the hero but lined out directly to pitcher Steve Crawford. The Red Sox won in 11 innings thanks to a sacrifice fly by Henderson.

The series wasn’t technically over (the Angels were still up 3 Games to 2) but the deflated Halos were finished. Back at Fenway, the Sox won 10-4 in Game 6 and 8-1 in Game 7. Grich went 0 for 2 in Game 7 and was lifted for a pinch-hitter in the 9th. The longtime second sacker announced his retirement in the locker room.

The Hall of Fame Case for and Against Bobby Grich

“I had some great numbers, but I truly don’t think I was of that caliber… Historically, there hasn’t been much credence given to defense, which is often overlooked. Also, I never did much in All-Star or playoff games, which would have helped my case. Nothing I did on a national stage had any notoriety.”

— Bobby Grich (to Mike Klingaman of The Baltimore Sun, July 2015)

So, let’s start with the obvious and remember that Grich himself still isn’t sure that he belongs in the Hall of Fame. Now, pretend you’re a Hall of Fame voter contemplating your ballot in late 1991. You might have read Thorn’s and Palmer’s Hidden Game of Baseball or Total Baseball or one of James’ Baseball Abstracts but the odds are high that the only resource you were consulting was the MacMillan Baseball Encyclopedia. 

Grich fell far short of the traditional benchmark statistics that one usually sees in a Hall of Famer. Although he played in parts of 17 MLB seasons, he played in 130 or more games in only 10 of those seasons. Injuries, lack of playing time, and the 1981 strike depressed his overall career plate appearances to 8,220. The relative lack of PA kept Grich’s career totals to 224 HR, 864 RBI, and 1,833 Hits. Also, his career .266 BA was anything but appealing. Hardly anyone in 1992 cared about his .371 on-base% or his .424 slugging%, both excellent numbers for a middle infielder.

The only Hall of Famers to debut between 1946 and 1975 who finished their careers with less than Grich’s 8,220 PA were Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Larry Doby and Ralph Kiner, three of whom had their careers shortened by the color line and the latter (Kiner) shortened in part by his military service.

By 1992, the BBWAA had only inducted 8 second basemen (Morgan, Carew, Robinson, Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, Charlie Gehringer, and Frankie Frisch). All except for Morgan were .300 hitters. All except Robinson had at least 2,500 hits. The other Cooperstown enshrined second sackers as of early 1992 (Johnny Evers, Billy Herman, Bobby Doerr, Red Schoendienst, and Tony Lazzeri) were Veterans Committee selections; most baseball writers (then and now) did not consider the Vets’ Committee selections as legitimate comps for their high echelon picks.

It’s not surprising that Grich got nowhere on the Hall of Fame ballot.

How Grich compares to all Hall of Fame 2B Today

Since 1992, 3 additional second basemen have been elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA (Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar, and Craig Biggio) while the Veterans Committee has honored 4 others (Nellie Fox, Bid McPhee, Bill Mazeroski, and Joe Gordon). That gives us a total of 20 second sackers with Cooperstown plaques.

Let’s look at Bobby Grich’s basic stats (I’ll get to advanced metrics later) compared to the 20 Hall of Famers:

• HR (224): 6th most, behind Hornsby, Biggio, Sandberg, Morgan, Gordon
• RBI (864): 15th most
• Hits (1,833): fewer than all by 3 HOF
• Runs (1,033): fewer than all but 5 HOF
• Walks (1,087): 5th most, behind Morgan, Collins, Gehringer, Biggio
• BA (.266): 2nd lowest (ahead of only Mazeroski)
• OBP (.371): lower than 8 HOF, tied with Alomar for 9th, better than 11
• SLG (.424): lower than 14 HOF, better than 6
• OPS (.794): lower than 14 HOF, better than 6

Part of what drives Grich’s low rankings in many of these categories is that he only played 2,008 MLB games, which is fewer than 14 enshrined second sackers. Of the 6 players with fewer games played, 3 of them lost time due to World War II (Herman, Doerr, and Gordon) and Robinson, of course, didn’t debut until he was 28 years old due to the color of his skin.

Beyond these numbers, however, is some hidden good news for the “hidden game of baseball” Cooperstown candidate. Besides the obvious (the high walk total, home run power and OBP that is in the upper echelon), Grich’s defensive numbers are high level.

Using “Range Factor per 9 innings” (putouts + assists per 9 innings), Grich’s total of 5.69 per 9 innings is the 5th best among all second basemen since 1974. He’s behind only “good field, no hit” second sackers Glenn Hubbard, Tito Fuentes, Bump Wills and Manny Trillo. The reason that this statistic (found on Baseball Reference) goes back only to 1974 is because the total number of innings played isn’t universally known before that date. Grich’s phenomenal range, reflected by his extraordinarily high number of chances per game, is crucial to his Cooperstown case.

“I played a lot of basketball as a kid and in high school — I was a guard — so I always had really good footwork. I had quick reactions and I had quick feet… I had to use that in order to get a good jump and then to watch the pitch, know what the guy was throwing, know the hitters, get a cheat as the ball was going toward the hitter, slidestep so the hitter couldn’t see me move. I would slidestep sometime three slidesteps, which is like nine to 10 feet. Between the time the ball got out of the pitcher’s hand and it reached home plate, I would have slidestepped three steps and moved 10 to 12 feet from where I started my position.”

— Bobby Grich (to Graham Womack of The Sporting News, February 2016)

Putting Grich’s Home Run Power into Historical Context

Before getting to the sabermetrics, which are crucial to Bobby Grich’s Hall of Fame case, I’d like to put his home run power into its proper historical context. Grich hit 224 home runs. That’s not only more taters than all but 5 Hall of Fame second basemen, it was the fourth most among all second sackers at the time of his retirement in 1986. Between 1970 and 1986, second base was regarded as a defensive position first and it was not a place where one found a lot of home run power.

Between 1970 and 1986, only 6 second basemen had as many as 100 home runs:

1. Joe Morgan (228)
2. Bobby Grich (224)
3. Davey Lopes (154)
4. Frank White (131)
5. Phil Garner (104)
6. Davey Johnson (103)

There were plenty of second basemen who got regular playing time despite positively tiny home run totals. Jerry Remy, who Grich replaced in California, swatted 7 home runs in 4,963 career plate appearances. Duane Kuiper hit just one home run in 3,754 PA. During these 17 years, there were 24 second basemen who clubbed less than 50 dingers in over 3,000 PA.

Considering the quality defense he was providing, what Grich did with the stick was extremely useful to his teams. Besides the 224 long balls, Grich’s totals of RBI, runs scored, hits, doubles, walks were second most only to Morgan during these years among second basemen.

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The Sabermetric Cooperstown Case for Bobby Grich

OK, let’s get to the meat of it. Everything we’ve seen so far indicates that Bobby Grich was an very good player. But it’s understandable, in the era before sabermetrics, that he wasn’t seen as a Hall of Fame player. Too much of his value was hidden.

First, let’s look Grich’s combination of power and on-base ability. His .794 career OPS (on-base% + slugging%) is better than only 6 Hall of Fame second basemen but that’s because Grich played in a relatively low scoring era and spent his entire career hitting in pitcher-friendly ballparks. OPS+ adjusts for this by putting those factors into context, normalizing OPS on a scale where 100 is average. Grich’s career adjusted OPS+ is 125, which is better than 14 of the 20 enshrined second sackers. His OPS+ is behind only Hornsby, Lajoie, Collins, Robinson, Morgan and Carew.

In other words, Grich is behind only the legends. Today, his 125 OPS+ is tied for 8th among all second basemen in history with at least 5,000 PA. He’s behind those 6 Hall of Famers and Jose Altuve, who is still active. He’s tied with the also-active Robinson Cano and Larry Doyle, a second baseman for the Cubs and Giants who played (from 1907-1920) mostly during the dead ball era.

Bobby Grich vs Ryne Sandberg

Notably, Grich’s 125 OPS+ is significantly better than Ryne Sandberg’s 114. After Morgan and Carew, Sandberg (who played from 1981-97) is the closest contemporary to Grich among the Hall of Fame second basemen. He also fits a similar profile; a slick-fielding defensive player with home run pop.

Sandberg had 282 career dingers (compared to Grich’s 224) but Ryno spent his entire career playing within the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Sandberg slashed .300/.361/.491 at home (with 164 HR) compared to a road slash line of .269/.326/.412 (with 118 taters). Grich, meanwhile, hit 109 out of his 224 long balls at Memorial Stadium or Anaheim Stadium.

Here are the numbers of Grich and Sandberg, side by side.

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As you scroll through the numbers, it looks like Sandberg was the superior offensive player. However, when you add up their respective on-base and slugging percentages, their raw OPS totals are virtually identical. Thanks to the adjustment due to ballpark effects, however, OPS+ shows that Grich was superior (with a 125 to 114 edge).

Grich’s and Sandberg’s fielding

Now, this only shows the offensive side of the game. It would be reasonable to point out that Sandberg won 9 Gold Gloves (compared to Grich’s 4) and that he had base-running ability (344 career stolen bases) that Grich lacked (104 SB).

Let’s start by giving the base-running edge to Sandberg. But how about their respective defensive games? Do Sandberg’s 5 extra Gold Gloves and higher fielding percentage (.9894 to .9840) mean he was the superior defender? The numbers say “no,” and you don’t need WAR to prove it.

First of all, let’s acknowledge Ryno’s edge in fielding percentage. He was a sure-handed defender, who had just 120 career errors, with only 109 coming at second base. Grich committed 189 miscues in his career (156 at 2B). Grich committed these 69 additional errors while playing 1,333 fewer innings in the field (17,089, compared to Sandberg’s 18,422).

What are those 69 errors worth, in terms of runs? Well, from 1970-97 (the years encompassing both players’ careers), MLB teams scored 0.339 runs for every time on base (hits, walks, HBP and batters reaching by error). So, taking 69 errors and multiplying by 0.339, we can estimate that Grich cost his teams 23.4 additional runs than Sandberg by committing those extra miscues.

But the errors are only a small part of the story. Here are fielding stats of our two leading men, showing just what they did at second base.

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A couple of these numbers are remarkable. As a second baseman, Grich had 410 more putouts and 144 more double plays turned than Sandberg, despite 230 fewer games played. That’s 554 additional outs for his teams which, in terms of runs saved for his team, is vastly more important than 69 additional errors (47 more at second base). Now, it’s true that Ryno did have 982 more assists. Still, if you add them up and put the total games played into the formula, as we see by RF/G (putouts + assists per game), Grich was responsible for an additional 0.34 outs per game played. Using the 0.339 ratio we shared earlier, that’s 203 more runs prevented in 1,765 games than if he had Sandberg’s RF/G of 5.10.

RF/G doesn’t add in the double plays because, usually, a second baseman gets both a putout and and assists on a DP so they’re already counted. 

A final word about those double plays turned. There is context involved because it usually takes two to tango in any DP. Grich piled up huge numbers of double plays from 1973-75, when his infield mates were Mark Belanger and Brooks Robinson. He led the league in DPs for a second baseman in each of those years (while also leading the A.L. in putouts and assists). In 1976, Doug DeCinces split time with the 39-year old Robinson at 3rd base and all of a sudden Grich was a mere 3rd in DPs turned and never led the league again.

However, even if you slightly discount those first three years, Grich’s superiority at turning two is still real. Among the 125 second basemen to play at least 1,000 games at the position, Grich has a rate of 0.74 DP’s turned per game, which is better than all but 7 second sackers in all of baseball history and 2nd best to Fernando Vina in the LCS era (1969 and beyond). Oh, by the way, Vina barely makes this cut, with 1,049 games played.

What does WAR say about this?

There is what should be a fairly obvious point to the belabored comparison between Bobby Grich and Ryne Sandberg. If we can establish that Grich was better than or Sandberg’s equal as a second baseman, then Grich belongs in the Hall of Fame. This is not the same as saying the Grich belongs in the Hall of Fame because he was better than Red Schoendienst or Bill Mazeroski. Those were borderline Cooperstown inductees, Veterans Committee selections. Sandberg was a BBWAA pick, inducted on just his third turn on the ballot.

Today, we have that statistic called WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which attempts to put a single number on a player’s value. How many more wins was that player worth than a replacement player (somebody you would call up from AAA)?

Grich’s career WAR (per Baseball Reference) is 71.1. Sandberg’s career WAR is 68.0. The formula for WAR (which factors in hitting, base running and fielding) calls Grich the better player. The reason that I went through the hitting and fielding numbers previously is to demonstrate what the WAR formula was looking at. WAR values Grich as a superior hitter and fielder, with Sandberg getting an edge on the base paths and by playing more games (showing up counts too).

Another popular sabermetric site (FanGraphs) gives Grich an even bigger WAR edge over Sandberg (69.2 to 60.9).

Here are the top 15 second basemen in baseball history, as ranked by bWAR (Baseball Reference) and fWAR (FanGraphs):

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By the way, if it frustrates you that WAR is calculated differently by different websites, join the club. I can assure you the totals reported for HR, RBI and the like are identical on both sites. The calculation of WAR is an evolving science and brilliant minds disagree on the formulas.

Anyway, the one thing that both bWAR and fWAR agree upon is that Bobby Grich is the 8th best second baseman in baseball history. If you believe in WAR, Grich is a Hall of Famer.

Conclusion

Personally, I do not believe in anointing a player worthy or unworthy of the Hall of Fame on the basis of WAR alone. I use a high WAR as a beacon, meant to illuminate that a player’s career is worth close scrutiny. From the metrics brought to you by Baseball Reference to FanGraphs and from the writings of Bill James, Jay Jaffe, John Thorn and Pete Palmer, there is near unanimity among people much smarter than I am that Bobby Grich was a terrific baseball player, one who is deserving of a plaque in the Hall of Fame.

Having gone through the exercise of scrutinizing Grich’s offensive and defensive numbers against Ryne Sandberg, a player whom nobody doubts as a legitimate Hall of Famer, I’m satisfied that the numbers and experts are correct.

Now, the more important question is whether this will ever happen.

“I’m not optimistic at all… I don’t think that I have much of a chance to be very honest with you.”

— Bobby Grich (to Graham Womack of The Sporting News, February 2016)

The 2020 Modern Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Grich’s pessimism is understandable. He has not been nominated for any of the four Veterans or Eras Committee ballots for which he has been eligible. This fall, Grich is once again eligible for an Eras Committee ballot, the “Modern Baseball” ballot, which will vote this December on potential members of the Hall of Fame’s Class of 2020. A 16-member committee will vote on 10 players, managers, umpires or executives whose primary impact was between 1970-87. Anybody who gets 12 votes or more will be elected to the Hall of Fame.

To just get on this ballot, the competition will be fierce. First, there are the eight men who were on the 2018 Modern Baseball ballot who might be nominated again. Those eight are former MLB union chief Marvin Miller plus players Ted Simmons, Don Mattingly, Steve Garvey, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Tommy John and Luis Tiant. Simmons came just one vote short of making the Hall in 2018. If all eight are nominated again (which of course is not guaranteed), that would leave only two open slots. Besides Grich, there are over a dozen other players who also have legitimate Hall of Fame arguments. I’ve written about a few of them: Lou Whitaker, Keith Hernandez, Thurman Munson, Graig Nettles and Dave Stieb.

Whitaker, the longtime second baseman for the Detroit Tigers, would seem to be a prime competitor for space on that 2020 ballot. Although the screening committee could certainly pick both Whitaker and Grich, it seems unlikely. And, although I believe both men are worthy Hall of Famers, I have Sweet Lou a notch about Grich on my pecking order. Here are the numbers of the two players:

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Whitaker has the advantage of having played longer and that’s not insignificant. Sweet Lou has many of the same “hidden game” traits that Grich has but also has longevity; his traditional counting stats are sufficient for a Hall of Fame second baseman. For this reason, since the committee that chooses the 10-man ballot has not been known for looking at sabermetrics, I think it’s much more likely that Whitaker will be on the 2020 ballot than Grich.

Besides superior raw numbers, Sweet Lou has the advantage of being the long time double play mate of shortstop Alan Trammell, who was inducted into the Hall in 2018. Hall of Fame voters are often swayed by narratives; Trammell without Whitaker feels like peanut butter without jelly.

Regardless of whether it’s this year or on the 2023 or 2025 Modern Baseball ballots, I’m confident that Bobby Grich will at some point get another look at the Hall of Fame. The museum in Cooperstown, New York would be enhanced by adding a plaque with his face on it.

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