Carlos Beltran’s Hall of Fame Case and the Politics of Cheating

Carlos Beltran‘s 20-year career in Major League Baseball started with a Rookie of the Year Award in 1999 with the Kansas City Royals. After laboring in small-market obscurity, he became a household name in 2004 with a fantastic postseason performance with the Houston Astros. He then spent all or part of 10 of his next 12 years playing in New York City with the Mets and the Yankees. His career ended in 2017 with his first and only World Series Championship with the Astros.

Beltran is arguably one of the ten best center fielders in the history of baseball. He was a five-tool player. As a switch-hitter, he hit equally well from the left and right sides of the plate. He made nine All-Star teams and won three Gold Gloves.

Beltran was on the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) ballot for the first time one year ago. From a performance standpoint, Beltran’s Hall of Fame case is strong but not without flaws. Still, for the 2023 vote, he was one of the best one or two players on the ballot who aren’t tainted by Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs).

Predictably, the writers did not vote for Beltran exclusively based on his performance on the field. In the years following his retirement at the end of 2017, he became the source of a different kind of controversy due to his role as a ringleader of the Houston Astros’ sign-stealing scandal that helped them win the 2017 World Series. As a player respected for his baseball mind, Beltran had actually been hired in November 2019 to be the manager of the New York Mets in 2020, but when the news broke about Beltran’s involvement in the scandal, he and the team mutually agreed to part ways.

Although he was almost exclusively a designated hitter in the final year of his playing days and a right fielder in the previous six, Beltran was a center fielder for the first fourteen seasons of his career, in which he produced the bulk of his Hall of Fame value.

If you look at his “Cooperstown Cred” below, it’s pretty clear that Beltran is worthy of a spot in the Hall of Fame. There’s plenty of material from which to write the text for his Cooperstown plaque.

The biggest question was to what degree the writers would punish him for what happened with the Astros in 2017. The answer was delivered a year ago; Beltran got 46.5% of the vote in an election that requires 75% for a plaque in Cooperstown. Beltran seems to be gaining ground this year but will fall short again. Based on the first 183 votes publicly reported on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, he has earned 66.1% of the vote. Most notably, he gained a net of 16 new voters this year compared to 2023.

Based on traditional voting trends, Beltran will clear 75% sometime in the next few years unless there’s a bloc of voters that draws as hard a line on his role in the sign-stealing scandal as they do on players who used PEDs (Performance Enhancing Drugs).

In this piece, after recapping Beltran’s career, I’ll look at the pros and cons of his Cooperstown candidacy and share some of the thoughts of the writers who are tasked with rendering that verdict on whether or not he belongs in the Hall.

Coopertown Cred: Carlos Beltran (CF)

2nd Year on the BBWAA Ballot (received 46.5% of the vote in 2023)

• Royals (1998-2004), Astros (2004, 2017), Mets (2005-2011), Giants (2011), Cardinals (2012-13), Yankees (2014-16), Rangers (2017)
• Career: .279 BA, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 runs, 2,725 hits, 312 SB
• Career: 119  OPS+, 70.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 4th most HR all-time for center fielders (behind Mays, Griffey, Mantle) (minimum 50% games played in CF)
• 4th most RBI all-time for center fielders (behind Cobb, Mays, Griffey)
• 4th most HR all-time for switch-hitters (behind Mantle, Murray, Chipper Jones)
• 3rd most RBI all-time for switch-hitters (behind Murray, Jones)
• Career SB success rate (86.4%) is the best in MLB history (minimum 200 SB)
• 9-time All-Star
• 3-time Gold Glove winner
• 4th in 2006 NL MVP vote (41 HR, 116 RBI, 127 Runs, 150 OPS+)
• Career post-season: .307 BA, .412 OBP, .609 SLG, 16 HR, 42 RBI in 256 PA
• 5th highest post-season OPS (1.021) in baseball history (min. 150 PA) (Ruth, Gehrig, Pujols, Brett)

(cover photo: Associated Press/Julie Jacobson)

This piece was originally posted in October 2017, after the Astros won the World Series. It has been updated in anticipation of the 2024 Hall of Fame vote.

Carlos Beltran Career Highlights

Carlos Ivan Beltran, a native of Manati, Puerto Rico, was drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the 2nd round of the 1995 player draft.

Beltran climbed through the Royals’ minor league system fairly rapidly. He made his MLB debut at the age of 21 on September 14, 1998. The following spring, he won the team’s starting center field job, which moved another budding star (Johnny Damon) to left field. Beltran made an instant splash, winning the A.L. Rookie of the Year award with 22 home runs, 108 RBI, 112 runs scored, and 27 stolen bases. He also made his mark defensively, leading all A.L. center fielders in assists and putouts (and, as it often is with rookies, in errors as well).

After injuries and a sophomore slump limited him to 98 games and a .247 batting average in 2000, Beltran blossomed into a star in 2001. For four years, Beltran exceeded 20 home runs, 100 RBI, 100 runs scored, and a .500 slugging percentage, one of only three players to do that each year between ’01 and ’04 (the others being Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez). He also became a superb base stealer. Including 2000, Beltran had a five-year run in which he stole 162 bases while only being caught 15 times (for a remarkable 91.5% success rate).

During his early years in the majors, Carlos labored in relative obscurity in Kansas City. The Royals were in perpetual rebuilding mode, finishing well under .500 in all of his seasons with the team. Although not the same caliber of an all-around player, popular first baseman Mike Sweeney was the team’s “designated lone All-Star” every year from 2000 to 2003. Sweeney slumped in the first half of 2004, so Beltran finally landed his first All-Star berth.

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Carlos Beltran’s First Rodeo in Houston

With free agency looming after the 2004 season and the Royals not in the market for a nine-figure player, Beltran was traded (on June 24) to the Houston Astros. At the time, the Astros had a 38-34 record. A little over two weeks later, at the All-Star break, they were 44-44 and 10.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the N.L. Central. Manager Jimy Williams was fired (replaced by Phil Garner), and the Astros proceeded to go on a 48-26 tear to edge into the playoffs as the wild card team, finishing with a 92-70 record that had one win more than that of Barry Bonds and the San Francisco Giants.

During that second-half 74-game push for the post-season, the Astros’ newly acquired center fielder scored 59 runs, slugged 17 home runs, drove in 41, and swiped 27 bases without getting caught a single time. Of course, it was in the 2004 playoffs that Beltran emerged from a career shrouded in obscurity and became a legend of October baseball.

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The 2004 Postseason

As the 2004 playoffs began, you have to remember that the Astros had been perennial post-season bridesmaids. In the previous seven years, Houston was on the losing end of the N.L. Division Series four times, with three of those losses at the hands of the Atlanta Braves.  The two future Hall of Famers on those Astros teams (Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio) had hit a combined .139 (in 108 at bats) in those four losses. The addition of a fourth “killer B” to the Houston lineup (the third being Lance Berkman) changed the Astros’ fortunes, with Beltran overshadowing his more famous teammates.

In the 2004 NLDS (again against Atlanta), Beltran hit .455, slugged 4 home runs, drove in 9, and scored 9 in the Astros’ five-game series win over Atlanta. In the decisive Game 5 (a 12-3 laugher), Beltran went 4 for 5 with 2 homers and 5 RBI. Although the Astros would fall in 7 games to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS, Beltran was again the hitting star, hitting .417 with another 4 home runs, 12 runs scored, and a 1,521 OPS.

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All told, Beltran’s 8 post-season home run belts tied for the most in a single post-season with Barry Bonds (who did it in 2002 with the benefit of also playing in the World Series). A post-season legend was born, and Beltran parlayed his October success into a 7-year, $119 million contract with the New York Mets.

First Tour in New York City

Carlos Beltran’s tenure in the Big Apple didn’t initially go well. A quadriceps injury bothered him for most of the season, and despite playing 150 games, he slumped to a .266 average with 16 home runs, 78 RBI, 83 runs scored, and 17 stolen bases.

Beltran rebounded in 2006 with his best-ever season (41 HR, 116 RBI, 127 runs, .982 OPS, park-adjusted for a 150 OPS+). For his overall game (which included 18 stolen bases and his first Gold Glove in center field), his 8.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) was the second-best in the majors (to Pujols). He finished 4th in the N.L. MVP voting; Ryan Howard‘s 58 HR and 149 RBI won the day.

Of course, those of us who are fans of the Amazins will forever remember Beltran’s lowest career moment, the at bat in which he struck out looking against the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th inning in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. The October star of 2004 actually had a respectable post-season for the Mets (a .978 OPS), but the enduring image is the team’s title hopes going down the drain with his bat on his shoulder.

Beltran followed his spectacular 2006 outing with two more top-level seasons. Still, Carlos never really was able to shake the feeling among Mets fans that he was a disappointment, and that feeling was reinforced by his injury-plagued campaigns in 2009 (81 games played) and 2010 (only 64).

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In 2011 (the last year on his contract), the Mets were out of contention, so on July 28th, Beltran was traded to the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants. The Giants were up by three games in their bid to repeat. Alas, it was an odd-numbered year, and San Francisco slumped, going 26-32 in their final 58 games, finishing four games out of the Wild Card chase.

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2013-16: St. Louis, New York, and Texas

Now 34 years old and a switch-hitting right fielder instead of a center fielder, there were no more nine-figure contracts in the offing; Carlos Beltran inked a two-year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals, where he had two solid but unspectacular seasons. The capstone was in 2013 when the Redbirds made it to the World Series, Beltran’s first appearance in the Fall Classic.

Beltran was just average with the bat (hitting .294 with no extra-base hits and a .694 OPS); the highlight of Beltran’s maiden World Series was when he robbed David Ortiz of a grand slam home run with a catch right in front of the right field bullpen in the second inning of Game 1.

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A free agent again at 36, Beltran returned to the Big Apple by signing a three-year contract with the New York Yankees. In the middle of 2016, with the Yankees not seriously contending for the playoffs, he was dealt to the Texas Rangers. The Rangers won the A.L. West but were bounced in the ALDS by the Toronto Blue Jays, swept in three games; Beltran went 2 for 11 with one RBI.

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Last Hurrah in Houston

In December 2016, now at the age of 39, Carlos Beltran signed a one-year contract to return to Houston, the city that made him a star during their post-season run of 2004. Statistically speaking, Beltran’s swan song was not special. He hit .231 with 14 home runs, 51 RBI, and a lowly .666 OPS; his value to the Astros was mostly in the clubhouse and in the dugout.

Long known for being a clubhouse leader, the Astros had brought him back to Houston in part to serve as the team’s designated hitter but also in part to be a mentor for the team’s crop of talented young players. From a Sports Illustrated piece, the Puerto Rico native was instrumental in helping Latino players; he was a driving force in the move to have every team have a translator available for Spanish-speaking players.

The 2017 Astros won the N.L. West with 101 wins, the most in the American League. They won the ALDS over the Boston Red Sox in four games. In what was the final signature moment in his 20-year career, the 40-year-old Beltran delivered an RBI double off the Green Monster in the 9th inning of Game 4. The hit, off the Red Sox’s Craig Kimbrel, gave the Astros a needed insurance run in their 5-4 series-clinching victory.

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In 2004, in the NLCS, the Houston Astros fell in a 7-game series to the St. Louis Cardinals despite a historic performance from their recently acquired switch-hitting center fielder. In that series, Beltran hit .417 with 4 home runs, 12 runs scored, and a 1.521 OPS. The rest of the team did not match his excellence, and the team fell a game shy of the Fall Classic. In 2017, the Astros prevailed over the New York Yankees in a riveting 7-game series, and this time, his teammates carried their team leader on their proverbial backs.

With two all-time classic extra-inning wins, Houston outlasted the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 7-game World Series. It was the first World Championship for the Astros and the first ring, finally, for Carlos Beltran.

In this, one of the greatest team sports, one of the best post-season hitters in history went out with a whimper at the plate (he went 1 for 15 in the ALCS and World Series), but he went out a champion, thanks to his teammates (and perhaps, some stolen signs).

At the time, Beltran said that he planned to retire no matter what happened in the World Series. As for his future plans, he indicated a desire to one day be a big-league manager, a dream he realized 24 months later, only to have it snatched away due to his involvement in the sign-stealing scandal.

The Hall of Fame Case for Carlos Beltran

It’s pretty clear to me that Carlos Beltran accomplished enough in his 20-year MLB career to warrant a Hall of Fame plaque. The chief argument against his candidacy is that he never won an MVP and was only in the top 10 of his league’s vote only two times; this will bother some voters. Other than leading the majors with 162 games played in 2002, Beltran never led his league in a single offensive statistical category; there is no black type on the back of his baseball card or Baseball-Reference page. There will be others who will be unimpressed with his career batting average of .279 and totals of less than 450 home runs and less than 2,750 hits.

Frankly, to me, the argument against Beltran’s Cooperstown plaque is pretty flimsy. I’m going to share a couple of graphics here that I think you’ll find interesting. This won’t take long. Before we get into it, please take a moment to scroll back to the top of this piece and look at the accomplishments. Then come back for the icing on the cake.

Welcome back from your scroll.

When the writers remember that he spent the majority of his productive career playing in center field, his career numbers are short only of legends like Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, and Ken Griffey Jr. His career WAR is 70.1, which is the 8th best in MLB history for center fielders (behind only the aforementioned four plus Tris Speaker, Joe DiMaggio, and the still-active Mike Trout).

Until the PED era, the benchmarks for an automatic Cooperstown plaque used to be 500 home runs or 3,000 hits. However, if a player achieved a second-tier level in both categories, that has also resulted in a plaque as well. That second tier is 400 home runs and 2,500 hits. Before getting into some more advanced metrics, let’s stick to the basics. Here is the list of the 11 players in the history of baseball who have at least 400 home runs and at least 2,500 hits who are not yet in the Hall of Fame.

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Not a bad list, eh? Bonds, Rodriguez, Palmeiro, Ramirez, and Sheffield are all tainted by PEDs. Pujols and Cabrera retired recently, while Beltre is on the BBWAA ballot for the first time and a certain member of the Hall’s Class of 2024.

It’s easy to make lists with Carlos Beltran’s career. How about this one? There are six players in MLB history with 1,500 RBI, 1,000 extra-base hits, 1,000 walks, and 300 stolen bases. It’s Beltran, Bonds, A-Rod, and Hall of Famers Mays, Cobb, and Speaker.

Or this one: there are five players in MLB history with 400 home runs, 2,500 hits, and 300 stolen bases. Those five players are Bonds, A-Rod, Mays, Andre Dawson, and Beltran.

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Carlos Beltran and Andre Dawson

The presence of Dawson on that list is significant. On Beltran’s Baseball-Reference page, the #1 match for his Bill James “Similarity Scores” (see Glossary) is The Hawk. Both players had power and speed. Both started their careers in center field before moving to right field. And both played for a long time. Take a look at their numbers side by side.

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(By the way, in case you’re wondering why you didn’t see Dawson’s name on the lists of “most home runs” or “most RBI” for center fielders, it’s because more than 50% of his starts were as a right fielder.)

Beltran has two advantages over Dawson. The first is that he was a much more efficient stolen base artist (with his 86% success rate compared to Dawson’s 74%). The second is that he drew nearly 500 more walks, resulting in a higher on-base percentage. The fact that both players have a park-adjusted OPS+ of 119 is because OPS+ also adjusts for the overall hitting environments of each player. Offensive numbers, in general, were higher when Beltran played than when Dawson did, although we have to remember, all players from the PED era look a little worse in OPS+ than perhaps they should because of the steroid abusers who boosted the average offensive statistics of the era.

The Hawk, an eight-time Gold Glover, was a better defensive player, but Beltran was a better base runner. In total, the comparison of Beltran to Dawson is a fair one.

How many ballots will it take for Beltran to make the Hall of Fame

Now, it took Dawson nine ballots to be elected to the Hall of Fame. Is that a fair expectation for Carlos Beltran? My guess is “no.” While Beltran was not a first-ballot selection, thanks to the cheating scandal, I would surmise that three to five ballots would be enough. There are a few reasons.

1. Beltran has the boost of being an outstanding post-season performer (1.021 OPS in 256 plate appearances). Dawson only got two bites at October baseball and hit .186 in 15 games.
2. Beltran has the intangible factor of having been a switch-hitter. Essentially, when it comes to “most HR for ______” he gets to be on two lists: the center fielder list, and the switch-hitter list. He has the fourth most taters for a switch-hitter, behind Hall of Famers Mickey Mantle, Eddie Murray, and Chipper Jones. For center fielders, he also has the fourth most, behind some guys named Mays, Griffey, and Mantle.
3. For those who like shiny “best-ever” objects, his 86.4% success rate when stealing bases is the best ever for players with at least 250 attempts. To find a higher SB success rate, you have to go down to Chase Utley, who was successful 87.5% of the time but only swiped 154 total bags. Beltran stole 312.
4. Beltran has the right WAR (70.1).

The Writers Weigh In

In my updates of the BBWAA Hall of Fame pieces, I’m including the thoughts of the writers who are actually tasked to render a “yes” or “no” verdict on each player’s Cooperstown credentials.

As noted at the beginning of this piece, the biggest wild card about Carlos Beltran’s Hall of Fame candidacy was the sign-stealing scandal. Several writers wrote “explainer” pieces, so let’s take a sample of those opinions. Given the unique nature of Beltran’s scandal, I’m including a larger sample size of opinions than in most of the other profiles on this site.

So, first, those in favor, starting with two prominent writers who switched from “no” in 2023 to “yes” in 2024:

“Beltrán helped create the illegal electronic sign-stealing system used by the 2017 and ‘18 Astros. I couldn’t bring myself to vote for him right away. But I revisit my selections every year, and did not want to continue penalizing Beltrán when other players who engaged in other forms of misconduct are enshrined.”

— Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic (Jan. 5, 2024)

“Postseason performance (1.021 OPS in 65 games) puts him over the top. I omitted him last year for the Astros cheating scandal and feel a little guilty about it.”

— Jon Heyman, New York Post (Dec. 18, 2023)

“If you expect me to hold the Astros sign-stealing scandal against him, grow up. I refuse to perpetuate the myth that conveniently absolved every active member of the team while pinning the blame on the one player who had retired and the one coach who had left to manage somewhere else. Those revelations cost Beltran his managerial job with the Mets, so I consider that punishment meted. There’s little debate in my mind about Beltran the player, a true five-tool superstar who remained a solid contributor throughout his 30s.”

— John Tomase, NBC Sports Boston (Dec. 27, 2022)

“Including Beltrán on my ballot should have been an easy call, but I’ve tossed and turned over that possibility since his name came up in commissioner Rob Manfred’s report into the Astros’ 2017 illegal sign stealing… Indeed, that Beltrán is so central to the report bothers me, because it sure as hell feels as though he’s been scapegoated for the whole affair; after all, he’s the only player named… I came into this year’s ballot thinking I would withhold my vote for Beltrán for a year but likely include him in the future… Ultimately, after spending hours talking about it with friends and fellow writers (some of them voters), I harkened back to the concept of my PED line: If the commissioner couldn’t punish the player for what he did, I’m not going to play the vigilante and administer frontier justice on behalf of MLB or the Hall.”

— Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs (Dec. 29, 2022)

— “I’m not going to trifle with a long, drawn-out statistical breakdown as to why I believe Beltrán belongs in the Hall of Fame. He has the numbers. On that basis, he belongs. But we all know it’s not about the numbers in this case… The Astros were caught, and in the ensuing investigation it was decided that no players would be punished so long as they spilled their guts to MLB’s various detectives… (Beltrán) didn’t receive the “Get Out of Jail Free” cards that were handed out to Jose Altuve, George Springer and the others. What he did get was the humiliation of being fired as manager of the Mets without ever managing a game… To Now withhold a Hall of Fame vote for him is just piling on. I enthusiastically include Carlos Beltrán on my 2023 ballot.”

— Steve Buckley, The Athletic (Jan 6, 2023)

Notice a theme here. Some of the catchphrases are that to not vote for Beltran is akin to “piling on” or “petty.” That’s a sentiment I personally agree with. However, fair and balanced, here’s a look at the thoughts of some who decided not to check Beltran’s name, starting with a couple of writers (Richard Griffin and Travis Sawchik) who voted “yes” a year ago but changed their mind this year:

“I will likely be back on the Carlos Beltran bandwagon next year, but he needed a pause after being a part of the much-documented disrespect of the game of the 2017 Astros. Fans have not forgiven that group…and may never. That mistake in judgment won’t keep Beltran out, but nobody remembers how many years it took for a player to get in, just that that this guy is a Hall-of-Famer.”

— Richard Griffin, Griff’s the Pitch (Jan. 4, 2024)

“There’s no precedent for banning sign-stealers. As brazen as the scheme was, devised by Beltrán and executed by the Astros, MLB didn’t discipline those players. I do think Beltrán’s career should be discounted in the spirit of invoking sportsmanship and character demerits, as is done for PED users, and his resume becomes less robust as a result. But even with a similar PED-user penalty, he’s Hall worthy. I plan to vote for him again in future years.”

— Travis Sawchik, The Score (Dec. 31, 2023)

“(Beltran) was, in my mind, a player of Hall of Fame quality… Like Bonds and Clemens, like Rodriguez and Ramirez, Beltran crossed the line… You’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t. I don’t want to play judge and jury here, but I’m not sure what else to do… He will get some Hall of Fame votes this year — maybe a lot of them. But he won’t get mine.”

— Steve Simmons, Toronto Sun (Dec. 27, 2022)

“Beltran himself said that the Astros World Series title was “stained” by the scandal. The fact that he was the mastermind, well, that was cheating the game. He was not a slam dunk candidate before this occurred, but he did have a lot in his favor. For now, he will remain off this ballot. Should all the Astros be punished? That will be answered later, but for being the mastermind, Beltran pays the price on this ballot.”

— Marc Narducci, Philadelphia Inquirer (Dec. 25, 2022)

Conclusion

Carlos Beltran’s career mark of 70.1 Wins Above Replacement is 8th best in MLB history for a centerfielder. The names higher on the list? Mays, Cobb, Speaker, Mantle, Griffey, DiMaggio, and Trout. All except for Trout are Hall of Famers, and Trout is a mortal lock.

(Incidentally, Beltran’s WAR was 70.9 before the 2017 season, but WAR is a counting stat that can count backward. In his swan song this year, Beltran posted a -0.8 WAR. This is not uncommon for players in their final year).

Now, a career WAR of 70.1 does not guarantee a Hall of Fame plaque. Curt Schilling has a career WAR of over 80 and is still outside the Hall. Schilling, of course, is a controversial figure because of his political views espoused on Twitter.

As for offensive players, Larry Walker has a career WAR of 72.7 and, until his final two years on the ballot, couldn’t get over 35% of the vote because of the skepticism regarding his years hitting in Coors Field. There’s also Scott Rolen, who was going nowhere in his first two years on the ballot but is now a Hall of Famer thanks in part to his 70.1 career WAR.

Long-time center fielder Kenny Lofton retired with a career WAR of 68.4, not far behind Beltran’s, and he was booted off the ballot after one year when he polled at just 3%. The difference between Lofton and Beltran is that Lofton’s high WAR is based on factors that are often not properly understood without close analysis, base running, and fielding. Beltran also scores well on both, but by far, the dominant factor in his high WAR are the hitting credentials that Lofton lacks.

As WAR becomes a more mainstream statistic, voters will be looking at it, and if they can explain to themselves why a player’s WAR is high, they’ll take it seriously. In Beltran’s case, his high WAR is backed by the traditional statistics that everyone understands.

In my opinion, despite the Astros cheating scandal and his prominent role in it, Carlos Beltran will, at some time in the next two to five years, be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

If I had a vote, I would have voted “yes” for 2023, and he will be on my virtual ballot for 2024 as well. I don’t believe in assessing a “one-or-two-year penalty” for his role in the cheating scandal. He lost a prime job as manager of the New York Mets, and his reputation has been tarnished. To me, that’s punishment enough. He belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on X @cooperstowncred.

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