The Hall of Fame Debate About Chase Utley

Chase Utley, who had a distinguished 16-year Major League Baseball career with the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles, is currently on the Hall of Fame ballot for the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) for the first time. Utley made six All-Star teams during his years on the diamond and won a World Series ring with the 2008 Phils.

Utley is on BBWAA the ballot with his longtime teammate, shortstop Jimmy Rollins (on the ballot for the 3rd time), along with a pair of strong first-time candidates (third baseman Adrian Beltre and catcher Joe Mauer).

Utley could do it all. He could hit with power, was a terrific defensive player, and was one of the best base-runners of his generation. Overall, he was one of the top second basemen in baseball during his 13 years in Philadelphia. In his final MLB season, he was a part-time starter and pinch-hitter for the Dodgers, one who hit just .213 with a 68 OPS+ and was left off the team’s postseason roster.

Utley’s career was good enough that he is a serious candidate for the Hall of Fame, but he’s a controversial candidate in the sense that his case must be made primarily through analytics, not raw numbers. His raw totals (.275 batting average, 259 home runs, 1,885 hits) do not scream “Hall of Fame!”

In this piece, after a recap of his 16-year career, I’ll take a close look at the pros and cons of the prospects of a Cooperstown plaque for Chase Utley.

Cooperstown Cred: Chase Utley (2B)

• Philadelphia Phillies (2003-15), Los Angeles Dodgers (2015-18)
• Career: 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, .275 BA, .358 OBP, .465 SLG
• Career: 117 OPS+, 64.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Career: 154 SB (87.5% success rate, best all-time MLB with min 100 SB)
• 6-time All-Star
• Member of 2008 World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies
• Hit 5 home runs in the 2009 World Series

(Cover photo: Yahoo Sports)

This article was originally published in late 2018. It has been updated in advance of the 2024 Hall of Fame vote.

Career Highlights

Chase Cameron Utley was born on December 17, 1978, in Pasadena, California. A star high school shortstop at Long Beach Poly High, Utley was drafted in the 2nd round of the 1997 draft by his hometown team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Utley, however, turned down an $850,000 offer from the Dodgers in order to go to college at UCLA.

As a junior for the Bruins, Utley hit .382 with 22 home runs. Now a 2nd baseman, Utley was drafted in the first round (15th pick overall) by the Philadelphia Phillies in 2000. This time, his signing bonus was $1.78 million, and he did not turn that down.

After three seasons in the minor leagues, Utley made his MLB debut with the Phillies on April 4, 2003, as a pinch-hitter. Utley was blocked at 2nd base, however, by Placido Polanco and didn’t play again for 20 days. In his first start, he recorded his first MLB hit by hitting a grand slam (with Hall of Famer Harry Kalas on the call) against Colorado’s Aaron Cook. Still, less than a week later, he was optioned back to the minor leagues and spent most of the ’03 season at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Utley was recalled to Philadelphia in August when third baseman David Bell was disabled. Polanco was moved to the hot corner, opening up 2nd base for the Phillies’ former 1st-round pick. Utley certainly seemed ready for prime time, having posted a slash line of .323 BA/.390 OBP/.517 SLG in AAA. The 24-year-old 2nd sacker didn’t impress, however, in his first tour of duty as the 2nd base starter. He hit .244 with a .336 OBP and just one home run in 137 plate appearances. He did have the dubious honor of making the final out ever at Veterans Stadium by grounding into a game-ending double play.

At the start of 2004, Polanco and Bell were both healthy, so Utley, now 25, was back at AAA for a third straight season. Polanco, however, strained his quadriceps in May, went on the DL, and opened a spot temporarily for Utley. Unfortunately, Chase didn’t do quite well enough to push Polanco aside upon his return. In 25 games, Utley hit .235 with a .265 OBP but did finally flash some power, hitting 5 home runs while driving in 21. For the rest of ’04, Utley remained with the Phillies but was a part-time player and pinch-hitter.

Finally, a Starter at Age 26

Polanco was traded in the 2004-05 off-season, finally opening up a full-time slot for Chase Utley. Playing for new manager Charlie Manuel, the left-handed hitter finally blossomed offensively. Utley slashed .291/.376/.540 to go with 28 HR and 105 RBI. Those numbers translated to a 132 OPS+ and, thanks to superb defensive metrics, a 7.3 WAR. For his efforts, Utley finished 13th in the N.L. MVP voting while the Phils won 88 games, finishing just 2 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the N.L. East.

2005 was the first year of a five-year stretch in which Utley was arguably one of the very best players in the game. He made 5 consecutive All-Star teams starting in 2006 and won 4 straight Silver Sluggers from 2006-09. In 2006, Utley had a 35-game hitting streak, part of a campaign in which he set career highs with 203 hits and 131 runs scored.

In 2007, Utley improved again, establishing career bests on his entire slash line (.332/.410/.566). His offensive numbers declined slightly thereafter but remained superb.

Take a look at Utley’s elite numbers year by year and how he ranked among 2nd basemen and among all MLB position players.

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Not shown on the previous graphic were Utley’s 77 stolen bases (while only getting caught 10 times) and his 99 times getting hit by a pitch. The hard-nosed second sacker took one for the team far more than any other player; the second most HBP during these years was 61 by Rickie Weeks.

In addition, advanced defensive metrics credited him as saving the most runs in all of baseball as well. It’s the combination of his productive bat and superior fielding and base-running that put his WAR as the second-best in all of MLB (behind only Albert Pujols) for these peak years.

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Philadelphia’s Mini-Dynasty

During Chase Utley’s peak years, the Philadelphia Phillies became a mini-dynasty. With Utley anchoring an All-Star infield with shortstop Jimmy Rollins and first baseman Ryan Howard, Manuel’s Phillies averaged 95 wins from 2007-11.

In 2005 and 2006, the team finished close to the playoffs but fell short. Starting in 2007, however, the Phils reeled off five consecutive N.L. East Division titles. The 2007 team staged a huge comeback; they went 13-4 in their final 17 games to come from 7 games back in the standings, while the New York Mets lost 12 of their final 17 tilts. Key to that comeback was a three-game sweep at Shea Stadium, sparked in the first game by Utley’s 2-run, game-tying home run in the top of the 6th against future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine. The Phillies, however, couldn’t stop the red-hot Colorado Rockies in the N.L. Division Series and were swept in 3 games.

In 2008, the Phillies became World Champions, prevailing in 5 games over the Tampa Bay Rays. Philadelphia’s All-Star second sacker sparked the team’s title run in the first games of all three rounds of the playoffs. In Game 1 of the NLDS (against the Milwaukee Brewers), Utley’s two-run double in the bottom of the third inning gave the Phillies the only runs they needed in a 3-1 victory; Philadelphia won the series in 4 games.

In Game 1 of the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Utley’s two-run home run in the 6th inning tied the score at 2, leading the Phillies to a 3-2 win and, ultimately, a five-game series win.

The Phillies, in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1983, were again powered by their star second baseman. In Game 1, Utley hit a first-inning, 2-run home run off the Tampa Bay Rays’ Scott Kazmir. Chase hit another tater in Game 3 (back to back with Howard) in another Phillies win.

The Utley Play

In Game 5, Chase Utley helped clinch the World Series with an amazing defensive play that is known in Philadelphia as “The Utley Play.” After a 46-hour rain delay, Game 5 resumed with the Phillies and the Rays tied at 2 in the 6th inning. The teams traded runs and had the go-ahead runner (Jason Bartlett) on 2nd base with two outs in the top of the 7th. Akinori Iwamura hit a chopper up the middle, with Utley ranging far to his right to get to the ball. Utley pump-faked to first and then nailed Bartlett at the plate to keep the game tied. (The Phillies would go on to win the game 4-3 and the series).

Years later, Hall of Fame writer Jayson Stark interviewed Phillies right fielder Jayson Werth, who remained in awe.

“Best. Play. Ever. That was the epitome of Chase Utley. He’s just got a master plan up there in his brain, always, and that’s why, in my mind, he’s the best – the best player of his generation. Yeah, he’s had some injuries. And as he’s gotten his older, some of those injuries have hit him a little harder. But mentally, and preparation-wise, he’s it. If anyone ever asks me, ‘Who’s the best player you played with?’ I mean, not to take anything away from the many other great players I played with. But he’s an easy choice.”

— Jayson Werth, Phillies right fielder, The Athletic (May 29, 2018)

In 2009, the Phils returned to the Fall Classic but fell in 6 games to the New York Yankees, with Utley playing a starring role in the losing effort. In Game 1, a Phillies 6-1 victory, Utley tagged Yankees’ starter CC Sabathia with two solo home runs (the first one shown here) in the first World Series game played at the new Yankee Stadium.

Utley slugged another solo tater off the Yankees’ ace in Game 4 as the Phils fell 7-4. With the Yankees up 3 games to 1, Game 5 was a must for Philadelphia. Chase did his part, hitting a 3-run homer in the first inning while adding a solo blast in the 7th in the Phillies’ 8-6 victory.

Philadelphia fell 7-3 in Game 6 at Yankee Stadium, losing the series. Still, Utley joined Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson as the only player ever to homer 5 times in the Fall Classic (Houston’s George Springer tied the feat in 2017).

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Chase Utley’s Final Six Years in Philadelphia

Although he made his 5th straight All-Star team in 2010 and fielded his position superbly, the 31-year-old Chase Utley started the decline phase of his career that year, thanks to the first of a string of injuries. He was forced to miss the Mid-Summer Classic in ’10 due to a sprained thumb that caused him to miss all of July and half of August.

Utley only managed to play in 115 games overall in 2010, but that was more than the 103 games played in 2011 and 83 in 2012. Chronic problems with his knees kept him off the field for all of those games while his productivity declined as well. For those years, Utley’s OPS+ was 116, still solid but not at the All-Star level of his prior campaigns.

The now 34-year-old Utley announced in the spring of 2013 that his knees were better. He played in 131 games, hitting at a higher level than in the previous two years (126 OPS+) but fell off in the defensive metrics as he lost some of the range that had previously made him such a superb defensive second baseman.

Utley made his final All-Star team in 2014, a season in which he was able to play in 155 games, albeit not at the same level as his prime. He finished ’14 with a .270/.339/.407 slash line (108 OPS+) to go with 11 homers and 78 RBI. The Phillies were no longer the playoff-contending team that they used to be as the core infielders (including Rollins and Howard) were all lesser versions of their previous selves. Manager Manuel had been fired in 2013, with Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg skippering the team at the end of ’13 and for all of ’14, two seasons in which the Phils won just 73 games.

Rollins was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the off-season, and ace starter Cole Hamels was the subject of constant trade rumors. At the start of 2015, the 35-year-old Utley got off to a dreadful start. In his first 32 games, Utley hit a woeful .118 with a .194 OBP and .209 SLG. He was still hitting just .179 on August 7 before a mini hot streak (.538 BA, 1.382 OPS in 7 games) that closed out his Phillies career in style. On August 19, with his average raised to .217, the longtime Phillie was dealt to his hometown Dodgers.

The Slide

Chase Utley didn’t hit much better upon joining the Dodgers. In 34 games, he hit just .202 with an 82 OPS+. Being in L.A., however, brought Utley back to October baseball for the first time since 2011. In his role as a pinch-hitter, Utley became the biggest story of the N.L. Division Series against the New York Mets. In the bottom of the 7th of Game 2, with the Dodgers trailing 2-1 and one out, Utley singled to right field off Noah Syndergaard to give Los Angeles runners on first and third.

Bartolo Colon came into the game to replace Syndergaard. The first batter he faced, Howie Kendrick, hit a soft liner up the middle to second baseman Daniel Murphy, who flipped the ball to shortstop Ruben Tejada in an attempt to turn an inning-ending double play. The hard-nosed Utley slid high and hard into Tejada, breaking up the double play and, unfortunately, also breaking Tejada’s leg. To add insult to injury to the Mets, a replay review showed that Tejada missed the bag, so no outs were recorded. The Dodgers would score three more runs in the inning and wound up winning the game 5-2.

Utley’s hard slide resulted in a two-game suspension, which was put on hold pending an appeal. Still, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly kept his controversial player on the bench in Games 3 and 4 at Citi Field in New York. The Mets wound up winning the NLDS in 5 games, and Utley’s suspension was lifted the following spring. Still, the “Utley Rule” was created in MLB to limit the kind of rolling block slide that Utley used in that game.

Final Years with the Los Angeles Dodgers

Utley, now an elder statesman dubbed the “Silver Fox” due to his graying hair, spent three more seasons in the City of Angels. He actually got the lion’s share of starts (118) at 2nd base in 2016; he hit .252 (92 OPS+) with 14 HR and 52 RBI. The ’16 Dodgers made it all the way to the NLCS before falling to the Chicago Cubs. The postseason star of the past did not emerge, however. Utley hit just .107 with a .326 OPS in 32 October plate appearances.

In 2017, Utley’s playing time decreased. In 127 games (353 plate appearances), he hit .236 with a 93 OPS+. He still could flash the leather on occasion, though, notably with this diving stop that saved Rich Hill’s bid for a perfect game in the 8th inning against Pittsburgh in August. (Hill wound up losing the perfecto in the 9th and the game in the 10th on a walk-off home run by Josh Harrison).

Utley played in only 87 games in his final campaign in 2018, hitting just .213 with a lowly 68 OPS+. The Silver Fox, a WAR darling of years past, went backward with a -0.1 WAR in his final campaign.

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Chase Utley’s Legacy

As a Hall of Fame candidate, Chase Utley is engendering a lot of debate. Some people are looking at a hard-nosed player who was superior in all facets of the game and has a high WAR to reflect that. Others aren’t impressed with his counting stats.

In today’s Cooperstown debates, the battle lines are often drawn between a sabermetric case and an old-school case. When it comes to Utley, there’s a lot to like, both with advanced metrics but also with the kind of player he was.

“I played with Hall of Famers, I’ve managed and coached great players, but Chase might be my favorite player of all time.”

— Charlie Manuel, as told to Peter Gammons

“Chase Utley is a freaking winner. There. I said it.”

— MLB Now host Brian Kenny (on Twitter, 7/13/18)

Kenny, a longtime advocate in favor of Utley’s candidacy for Cooperstown, had much more to say to his show. He referred to Utley’s high career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and his superlative peak performance from 2005-2014. But you can tell that Kenny just likes the way Chase Utley played the game of baseball.

The Hall of Fame Case for Chase Utley

Let’s first look at the Hall of Fame case in favor of Chase Utley. As previously stated, Utley’s case starts with sabermetrics. Specifically, it starts with WAR. If you’re not familiar with how WAR is calculated, click here for a primer.

From 2005-2014, here is the list of WAR leaders among position players in all of Major League Baseball.

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Well, sports fans, that’s a pretty neat group in which to be #2. This was Albert Pujols at his best, so of course, he’s on top of the list. Still, for Utley to be 2nd, in front of sure-fire Hall of Famers Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre, is a nice big feather to put in his cap. And yes, Utley is tops among second basemen, significantly ahead of the PED-linked Robinson Cano. (Incidentally, Beltre, David Wright, and Joe Mauer are also first-time candidates on the 2024 BBWAA ballot).

Anyway, for those 10 seasons, the smooth lefty swinger averaged 21 HR and 81 RBI while posting a .374 OBP, .492 SLG, and 127 OPS+. Those are superior numbers for a second baseman.

At his peak (from 2005-09), Utley averaged 29 HR with 101 RBI, 111 runs scored, and a 135 OPS+. He hit over 30 bombs three times, drove in over 100 four times in a row, and scored over 100 four times in a row. In the meantime, Utley was a master at “taking one for the team.” His 201 career times being hit by a pitch is 9th most in baseball history.

Besides his prowess with the bat, Utley was a superb fielder. According to both Baseball Reference’s and FanGraphs’ fielding metrics, he was the best defensive second baseman among his peers during his career.

In addition, Utley was a superior base-runner. As we’ve seen, he has the highest success rate for steals for any player with at least 100 in his career. For his 10-year peak, Utley also had a rate of 58% for Extra Bases Taken. That means doing things like going from first to third on a single or first to home on a double.

And, as we’ve seen, Utley was also a key contributor to the Philadelphia Phillies teams from 2007-2011 that made the playoffs every season, winning the 2008 World Series while winning the N.L. pennant in 2009. In 204 post-season plate appearances during those years, Utley posted a .402 OBP, a .500 SLG, while hitting 10 home runs with 25 RBI.

And, of course, in the ’09 World Series, Utley hit those 5 home runs while posting a 1.448 OPS. Even in losing, Chase Utley was a winner.

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The Hall of Fame Case Against Chase Utley

It’s easy to make a case against Chase Utley for the Hall of Fame. It starts and finishes with the fact that, despite performing in the bigs for 16 seasons, he simply didn’t play enough. From 2010-2017, Utley averaged just 120 games played per year.

For the entirety of his 16-year career…

• Utley only played 140 games 5 times.
• He only hit .300 twice.
• He only got more than 180 hits once (203 in 2006).
• Despite being generally a good on-base guy, he only topped a .400 OBP once.

The lack of playing time results in the following rankings (among the 127 second basemen in baseball history with at least 5,000 PA and 50% of their games started at 2nd):

• Utley’s career total of 1,885 hits is just 37th best among those 127 2nd basemen. As FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe has often noted, there has been a de facto “Rule of 2000” regarding the Hall of Fame. No position player whose career began in 1960 or later and accumulated less than 2,000 hits has been inducted into Cooperstown by the BBWAA.
• His 1,103 career runs scored are only the 25th best.
• His .358 OBP is just 35th best.
• His 117 OPS+ is tied with Lou Whitaker for 17th best, behind 8 Hall of Famers and Cano, Jeff Kent, Jose Altuve, Larry Doyle, Bobby Grich, Danny Murphy, George Grantham, and Cupid Childs.

Incidentally, the “Danny Murphy” listed made his MLB debut in 1900. It’s not Daniel Murphy, who helped the Mets beat Utley’s Dodgers in the 2015 NLDS.

On the more positive side:

• Utley’s 259 career HR is 7th best for 2nd basemen (behind Kent, Cano, Rogers Hornsby, Craig Biggio, Ryne Sandberg, and Joe Morgan).
• His .465 slugging percentage is tied for the 10th best (behind Hornsby, Kent, Cano, Charlie Gehringer, Jackie Robinson, Altuve, Tony Lazzeri, Nap Lajoie, and Joe Gordon)
• His 1,025 RBI are 16th best, behind Kent, Cano, Whitaker, and 12 Hall of Famers.

Utley’s career WAR of 64.5 is a good number, and it’s significantly better than Kent’s. Overall, he’s 14th best among second sackers but still behind several players who are not in the Hall of Fame: Whitaker, Grich, Willie Randolph, and Cano. To be fair, Whitaker and Grich are two players who many members of the analytics community have long championed for Cooperstown, so to be in their company is not a significant demerit.

Still, the case against Utley is simple: he didn’t play enough to accumulate the statistics one would expect from a Hall of Famer.

As for the post-season stud reputation, it’s probably not fair to mention this, but since it’s part of the record, here it is. In 54 plate appearances with the Dodgers in playoff baseball, Utley hit a lowly .087 with just 2 RBI and a .309 OPS. Starting with Game 5 of the 2016 NLDS, Utley was hitless in his last 30 post-season at bats. Ouch!

Can Chase Utley get to Cooperstown if Jeff Kent can’t?

Jeff Kent retired after the 2008 season. Chase Utley retired after the 2018 season. Their careers only partially overlap, and they are not on the same Hall of Fame ballot.

Kent was recently on his 10th and final BBWAA ballot. He earned 46.5% of the vote, far short of the 75% required for induction into Cooperstown.

Why do I bring this up? It’s because Kent’s only chance at a plaque in Cooperstown will now come via the Eras Committee.

Now, take a look at the numbers of the two players side by side:

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Kent clearly benefits by having logged 1,714 more plate appearances and showing up for work counts. As I chronicled in my piece about his Cooperstown candidacy, Kent was a late bloomer, not becoming a star until he was 29 years old. Still, he played 120 games or more 14 times in his 17-year career. Utley managed this only 9 times.

As for accolades, Utley was selected for 6 All-Star teams; Kent made it to the Mid-Summer Classic 5 times. Both players won 4 Silver Sluggers for being the best hitters at their position. Kent won the 2000 MVP Award; Utley’s best finish was 7th place in 2006.

The only reasons you would select Chase Utley over Jeff Kent for the Hall of Fame are that he was a superior fielder and base-runner. These are legitimate reasons. Kent was never known for either. He was a hitting star, a below-average fielder, and a mediocre base-runner. Utley, too, was a hitting star, but he was also a superb fielder and superb base-runner.

Do You Trust the Defensive Metrics?

The fact that Utley was a superior base-runner to Kent is indisputable. You can see his stolen base percentage and that he was aggressive on the paths in taking extra bases. That he was a superior defender is also indisputable. But how much better? That’s the big question.

If you go by the defensive component of WAR on Baseball Reference (WAR Runs Above or Below Average due to Fielding), Utley was 129.0 runs above average, and Kent was 42 runs below average. Out of the 127 second basemen with 5,000 or more plate appearances in their careers, Kent’s runs from fielding (Rfield) is 110th best out of 127 (or 18th worst).

Utley’s runs from fielding are 7th best for second basemen in the history of baseball, behind Bid McPhee (a 19th-century player), Joe Gordon, Bill Mazeroski, Frankie Frisch, former teammate Placido Polanco, and Mark Ellis. Yes, this means, according to these numbers, Utley has been the third most valuable 2nd baseman defensively in the last 50+ years. For this, he was awarded zero Gold Gloves.

Zero Gold Gloves for Chase Utley. The same number as Jeff Kent.

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Defensive Peak: 2005-2010

As it was with his bat, Chase Utley’s peak defensively was from 2005-2010. On the Baseball Reference’s fielding component of WAR, Utley was worth 119 runs above average, which was over 50% better than the runner-up, Polanco (71 runs above average). To put the 119 number into context, that’s more “runs above average” in just six years than all but 11 second basemen for their entire careers in all of baseball history. Was Utley, with no Gold Gloves to match, really that good?

The other indispensable website for baseball statistics, FanGraphs, breaks this down in more detail. Fan Graphs credited Utley with being 90.7 defensive runs above average from 2005-10, which is the best for all second sackers.

Anyway, take a look at Utley’s six-year dominance in these key defensive metrics:

Def = defensive runs above average (fielding and positional adjustment combined) (this is used in the FanGraphs calculation of WAR)

RngR = Range runs above average

DRS = Defensive Runs Saved (from the “Fielding Bible”)

UZR = Ultimate Zone Rating in runs above average (includes errors and DP’s made)

Top 3 MLB Leaders in Key Defensive Metrics for 2nd Basemen (2005-10)

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Utley’s dominance in these key metrics is rather stunning, attributable to his outstanding range numbers. If you’re skeptical that one player could save twice as many runs due to his range as the next best (the 76.3 to 31.1 RngR number), this was in part due to superior positioning. As John Dewan noted in the Hardball Times, the key to Chase’s range numbers was that he positioned himself further to his left against left-handed hitters than any other second baseman in baseball.

Utley and the Phillies coaches were clearly ahead of the league in this department. By playing a little further to his left than most second basemen, essentially he was shifting before shifts became a “thing.” Also, if you watched him play enough, you know that Utley made plenty of spectacular plays regardless of his starting position on the diamond.

Why No Gold Gloves?

Still, as we’ve noted, despite his superior defensive metrics, Utley did not win any Gold Gloves during these years, losing out to the flashier Luis Castillo (2005), Orlando Hudson (2006, ’07, ’09), and Brandon Phillips (2008, ’10). Now, it’s absolutely true that the awarding of Gold Gloves has historically been highly flawed, based on reputation and flair for the dramatic. But there’s also been a bias toward giving the hardware to the top-hitting stars at their respective positions. After all, Derek Jeter won five Gold Gloves despite horrific defensive metrics.

So why was Utley overlooked? The best explanation I can think of is that because his superb metrics were a result largely of superior positioning, he theoretically created optical illusions, easily fielding balls that one of his peers would have had to dive for.

Incidentally, Dewan and co-author Ben Jedlovec awarded Utley three “Fielding Bible” Awards for N.L. 2nd basemen from 2008-10 in their book of the same name.

This leads us to other questions. If Utley’s superb fielding metrics (and, thus, his career WAR) are heavily influenced by superior positioning, does this mean that WAR has overrated him? If so, to what degree should a Hall of Fame voter take that into consideration?

As Brian Reiff from Baseball Info Solutions noted at the 2018 SABR Analytics Conference, the evolution of defensive metrics started removing the positioning component of Defensive Runs Saved because that’s more a function of coaching than of player skill. Essentially, if one applied the 2018 defensive methodology to Utley’s 2005-2010 campaigns, his metrics would not have been quite so high.

So, when evaluating Utley’s Hall of Fame candidacy, how much credit do you want to give him for being smart enough to position himself better than all the other second sackers, and how much credit do you want to give to the Phillies’ coaching staff? I’m inclined to give Utley a significant amount of credit for it. Being smart is part of being a good baseball player, and being smart sums up Chase Utley perfectly.

Still, it is absolutely fair to question whether his 64.5 career bWAR (or 61.6 fWAR on FanGraphs) is higher than it should be.

Baseball Prospectus, which, in its “Deserved Runs Prevented” (DRP) calculations, uses play-by-play data rather than zone-based metrics, gives Utley a career “WARP” of 46.0 thanks to a dramatically lower FRAA than FanGraphs’ or Baseball Reference’s numbers.

When it comes to defensive excellence, beauty is in the eye of the statistical methodology.

Summarizing Chase Utley’s Pros and Cons

So, where does this leave us? The Kent vs. Utley choice is not one that any writer will have to make. Kent is off the ballot. And, as I’ve stated before, I firmly believe Kent should be a Hall of Famer, so if Utley is at least as good, he should be too.

Utley is the only 2nd baseman on his first BBWAA ballot who is a legitimate candidate for the Hall. Voters will either compare him to already enshrined Hall of Famers or other second base candidates who were his peers but not yet eligible for consideration.

I’m speaking specifically about Robinson Cano (now twice tainted by PED use), Dustin Pedroia, and Ian Kinsler. Pedroia and Kinsler will be on the 2025 ballot, with Cano first eligible in 2028.

Although some of Utley’s counting stats are lacking due to injuries and also not becoming a starter until he was 26, Utley was one of those rare baseball players who succeeded in all facets of the game. He could beat you with a home run, a well-timed steal, a lean-in to take a hit by pitch, and a diving stab in the field. Even if I’ve convinced you that his defensive metrics are a bit inflated, he was still a superb fielder.

Also, Utley was arguably the best position player on a mini-dynasty (although one could make an argument for Jimmy Rollins), the Phillies’ teams that won 5 straight division titles and two pennants. Also, although his rank among all 21st-century second sackers is in question, he has been easily the best second sacker in the National League who started his career in the 21st century.

Here’s a final fun sabermetric fact: using the “above average” components of WAR on Baseball-Reference, there are three players in baseball history with over 125 runs above average from hitting and fielding and also over 40 from base-running. Those three players are Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, and Chase Utley.

The Scribes Weigh In

I have made my case both for and against Chase Utley for the Hall of Fame. I am not a member of the BBWAA and thus unable to cast a real vote. So, let’s take a look at the opinions of some of the writers who do, in fact, have that honor, starting with the creator of JAWS on Baseball-Reference, Jay Jaffe, who, not surprisingly, puts a great deal of stock in his creation.

“Utley is just 0.1 points shy of the JAWS standard at they keystone, and ninth in peak as well thanks to the tremendous impact of his fielding and baserunning, which reflected his high baseball IQ. Alas voters’ failure to recognize him in the MVP races and Gold Glove awards… make it apparent that he’s facing an uphill battle for election… I’m hopeful that with an electorate sophisticated enough not to rely on traditional career totals as the sole yardstick.” 

— Jay Jaffe FanGraphs, (Dec. 29, 2023)

As you can see, there are others who also appreciate Utley’s excellence beyond the analytics.

“When Chase Utley retired in 2018, I didn’t think I would end up voting for him… Only 1,885 hits? There was no precedent, in my time as a voter, for a player with under 1,900 hits being a Hall of Famer… But if I’m now more focused on players with breathtaking peaks, who practically willed their teams to win, who often felt like the best player on the field when you watched them, who might have won multiple MVP trophies if they’d played in a more analytically aware age … then how could I not vote for Chase Utley?… If Utley was on your team, you were going to win! Have you ever heard other players talk about this dude? They were in awe of him. They were a little afraid of him. And if they played with him, they were elevated by everything about him.”

— Jayson Stark, The Athletic (Jan. 18, 2024)

“Scouts, executives, teammates and opponents viewed Utley as almost a model player. He was not just an elite hitter, defender and baserunner. He was also savvy, instinctive and yes, cold-blooded, someone who would do almost anything to win… That combination of attributes is why I voted for Utley.”

— Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic (Jan. 5, 2024)

“(Utley) was one of those players that you grew to appreciate every time you watched him play… When you watched Utley play, he was a difference-maker, whether it was his superb defense at second base, his outstanding baserunning or his ability to put together a solid at-bat at the right time… His career numbers might not look Hall-worthy, but I’m more of a “peak” guy, looking at how a player measured up during the prime of his career.”

— Marc Feinsand, mlb.com, (Dec. 30, 2023)

As of January 20th, Jaffe, Stark, Rosenthal, and Feinsand are among the 79 writers who have publicly acknowledged checking Utley’s name on their ballots, according to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker. According to the tracker, Utley has gained the support of 42.7% of the 185 writers who have publicly revealed their ballots.

Here are a couple of the “no” votes:

“Not on the list for now: Chase Utley. With 1,885 hits, Utley finished short of the 2,000-hit mark that serves as a bit of an unofficial threshold for entry into Cooperstown. He also didn’t rack up the accolades (Gold Gloves, MVPs, etc.) that you’d expect from a Hall of Famer. That said, Utley’s career arc was atypical. Also, his peak seasons at second base were awfully impressive. Utley was just short of inclusion. Of course, I once felt that way about Jones, Helton and Wagner. Over time, I reconsidered. I suspect that one day this might also be the case with Utley.”

— Marc Carig,  The Athletic (Jan. 10, 2024)

“I almost voted for him. Like (Joe) Mauer, he was great for a time. He just didn’t play enough… For a five- or six-year period, Utley was terrific. At this point, I don’t see that as enough. But I could easily see myself changing with more time and context.”

— Mike Bass, Mike Bass Coaching (Jan. 18, 2024)

“While Chase Utley is garnering some support, I felt his period of dominance (2005-2009) was too brief and that the final nine years of his career were unremarkable.”

— Sean McAdam, MassLive (Jan. 5, 2024)

What does the 2024 Ballot Look Like?

The candidates besides Utley who are on the 2024 BBWAA ballot are, in order of the 2023 vote share:

• Todd Helton (72.2%) (6th year on ballot)
• Billy Wagner (68.1%) (9th year)
• Andruw Jones (58.1%) (7th year)
• Gary Sheffield (55.0%) (10th year)
• Carlos Beltran (46.5%) (2nd year)
• Alex Rodriguez (35.7%) (3rd year)
• Manny Ramirez (33.2%) (8th year)
• Omar Vizquel (19.5%) (7th year)
• Andy Pettitte (17.0%) (6th year)
• Bobby Abreu (15.4%) (5th year)
• Jimmy Rollins (12.9%) (3rd year)
• Mark Buehrle (10.8%) (4th year)
• Francisco Rodriguez (10.8%) (2nd year)
• Torii Hunter (6.9%) (4th year)
• Adrian Beltre (1st year)
• Joe Mauer (1st year)
• David Wright (1st year)

Anyway, there are 17 names on the list above. It’s a strong list, one with an obvious first-ballot inductee (Beltre) and another very strong first-time candidate (Mauer). Still, if you’re a believer in Utley as a Hall of Famer, it shouldn’t be hard to find room within the ten-player maximum. As we’ve seen, however, Utley isn’t going to get close to Cooperstown in his maiden voyage with the BBWAA, garnering less than 50% support so far.

As for my personal thoughts, I am on the fence. Utley is a solid candidate, but I find the volume of his counting stats to be troubling. So much of the case in favor is based on his WAR. Considering that so much of that value is based on his ridiculously high range factor (due to positioning), I’m skeptical.

Just looking at his fellow first-timers in 2024, he’s way behind Beltre and (in my opinion) behind Mauer as well. Additionally, I can’t say conclusively that he’s a better candidate than Wright (you can see a detailed comparison in this piece about the Mets’ third baseman).

Still, with the overall BBWAA electorate becoming more sabermetric-friendly every year, the odds for Chase Utley’s eventual induction are quite good.

Thanks for reading.

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