Clayton Kershaw Gets His Ring, Cementing his Hall of Fame Legacy

Last night in Arlington, Texas, about 20 miles from his hometown, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw finally won a World Series championship. Kershaw, now a 13-year Major League Baseball veteran, has been one of the best regular-season pitchers in the history of baseball but had always had the blemish of not being able to deliver in the biggest moments of October.

Earlier in his career, I always felt that Kershaw was the Peyton Manning of baseball. Year after year Kershaw was one of the best pitchers in baseball (winning 3 Cy Young Awards) but he couldn’t make it to the World Series. Similarly, Peyton was usually the best quarterback whose team always felt short of the Super Bowl. In 6 of Manning’s first 8 NFL seasons, the Indianapolis Colts made the playoffs but didn’t make it to the big game. Similarly, in 6 of Kershaw’s first 9 MLB campaigns, the Dodgers made the playoffs but failed to win the pennant.

Of course, in Manning’s 9th NFL campaign, Peyton and the Colts did win the big one, prevailing in Super Bowl XLI over the Chicago Bears. In Kershaw’s 9th MLB campaign, the Dodgers fell to the Chicago Cubs in the National League Championship Series. The Dodgers did make the World Series in 2017 and 2018 but lost both series (to the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox).

And so, as the Dodgers made it to the Fall Classic his year, in Kershaw’s 13th season in the league, a loss could have made him the John Elway of baseball. Elway had lost three Super Bowls with the Denver Broncos before finally winning Super Bowl XXXII in his 15th season in the league and the age of 37.

Fortunately for Kershaw, he did not have to wait another two seasons to win a title. He started Games 1 and 5 of the 2020 World Series (against the Tampa Bay Rays) and won both contests while sporting a 2.31 ERA. When his teammates came through with a Game 6 win, Kershaw became a World Series Champion.

“I’ve been saying ‘World champs’ in my head over and over again, just to see if it will sink in. I think it’s just a feeling of contentment, joy, Then to get to see that group of guys and how happy everybody was. Only one team gets to do it every year, and it’s not an easy thing to do. It’s just a really special thing.”

— Clayton Kershaw (October 28, 2020)

Clayton Kershaw and the Road to the Ring

Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 season will be remembered as the shortest and strangest campaign in MLB history. The Dodgers had by far the best regular-season record in the 60-game season (43-17) but that offered no guarantees in a playoff derby that featured 16 games and a 3-game opening round.

After making just 10 starts in the regular season (6-2, 2.16 ERA), Kershaw was the Game 2 starter in the Wild Card round (against the Milwaukee Brewers) and he offered a vintage performance. In 8 shutout innings, Kershaw struck out 13 batters while yielding just 3 hits and 1 walk. It was arguably the best of Kershaw’s 37 career postseason outings and it propelled the Dodgers to a Division Series matchup against the San Diego Padres.

The Dodgers again engineered a sweep, with Kershaw the winner in Game 2 (with 6 innings and 3 ER allowed). In the NLCS (against the Atlanta Braves), it looked as if Kershaw’s postseason curse had reared its ugly head again. With the Dodgers down 2 games to 1, Kershaw was the starter and loser in Game 4 (giving up 4 runs in 5 innings). Fortunately for Kershaw, his teammates swept the next three games to propel the Dodgers to their third pennant in the last four years.

And the rest, as they say, is history. Next year, Kershaw will finally be able to wear a World Series ring.

This piece was originally posted in October 2018. It has been updated include events of 2019 and 2020.

Cooperstown Cred: Clayton Kershaw (SP)

• Los Angeles Dodgers (2008-20)
• Career: 175-76 (.695 WL%), 2.44 ERA, 2,526 Strikeouts
• Career: 158 ERA+, 67.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 8-time All-Star
• Won the N.L. Cy Young Award in 2011, 2013 and 2014
• Two runner-up Cy Young Award finishes in 2012 & 2015
• Won the N.L. MVP in 2014 (21-3, 1.77 ERA, .0857 WHIP)
• Led N.L. in ERA five times

(cover photo: USA Today Sports)

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The comparisons to Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax came early in Clayton Kershaw’s career. Like Koufax (6’2″), Kershaw is a tall (6’4″) left-handed starter. In his youth, he had a blazing fastball and a killer curve. He posted ERAs under 3.00 while piling up big strikeout totals. He called Dodger Stadium his home. And, like Koufax, Kershaw was expected to deliver multiple World Series Championships to the Dodger faithful. Even after this year’s title, it’s that last part where Kershaw’s legacy is divergent from Koufax’s.

One year ago, in Game 5 of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals, Kershaw once again failed to live up to the Koufax legacy as a postseason ace. It might have been the most bitter. With the Dodgers holding a 3-1 lead over the Nats in the top of the 7th inning with two outs and two runners on base, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts brought him in from the bullpen to get out the left-handed-hitting Adam Eaton. Kershaw struck out Eaton on three pitches and the crowd roared.

Not trusting his regular bullpen in the big spot, Roberts brought his longtime ace starter back to face the Nats in the top of the 8th. Kershaw then proceeded to yield back-to-back home runs on consecutive pitches to Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto, allowing Washington to tie the score at 3. Later, in the top of the 10th, former Dodger Howie Kendrick hit a grand slam off Joe Kelly to lead Washington to a 7-3 win. In a battle of postseason curses (Kershaw’s and the Nationals’), Clayton’s curse was stronger. (Washington, of course, would go on to win the World Series).

Until this year, it was Kershaw’s ups and downs in playoff ball (many more downs than ups) that frustrated Dodgers fans throughout his otherwise magnificent career.

Even though, as we will see, Kershaw has been without peer among all pitchers in Major League Baseball for 13 years, it was his lack of a World Championship that had been a gaping hole in what will be the text on his eventual Hall of Fame plaque.

The Legacy of Sandy Koufax

The Brooklyn Dodgers moved to Los Angeles in time for the 1958 season. After four seasons in the Los Angeles Coliseum, which was ill-suited for baseball, the team moved into Dodger Stadium, a sparkling new ballpark in Chavez Ravine.

The move to Dodger Stadium coincided with the emergence of Koufax, one of the most dominant pitchers the game of baseball had seen in decades.

The Brooklyn native struggled to find his form early in his career. He was 36-40 with a 4.10 ERA from 1955-1960, six years that included three years as a spot starter in Brooklyn and three mediocre campaigns in Los Angeles.

Koufax turned his career around in 1961 and, for six seasons, went 129-47 with a 2.19 ERA, including an other-worldly 1.86 ERA in his final four campaigns.

During those final four years, Koufax won 3 Cy Young Awards, an MVP trophy, and was twice named World Series MVP. All told, the Left Arm of God sported a 0.95 ERA in 57 World Series innings en route to 3 World Championships.

Koufax and Kershaw

So, fast forward to the early 2010s and here you have the second coming of Koufax in the body of Clayton Kershaw. Just like Koufax, Kershaw has 3 Cy Young Awards and an MVP Trophy. Clayton had a four-year run (2013-16) with a microscopic ERA (1.88).

Koufax and Kershaw. Two lefties. Two Dodgers. Two pitchers with 3 Cy Youngs and an MVP. Two hurlers with last names starting with the letter K. There are two differences, one painfully obvious, the other not as much. The not-so-obvious difference is that, as we’ve seen, Koufax was a mediocre pitcher in his youth. His first Hall of Fame quality season was at the age of 25. Kershaw was highly productive at the age of 21 and a Cy Young winner at 23.

Of course, there is the obvious. The postseason piece never came together for Kershaw and it was a monkey that was a King Kong-sized gorilla on his back. While Koufax is one of the greatest October pitchers in the history of baseball, Kershaw’s playoff performances had been filled mostly with disappointment. In 189 innings spanning 10 postseasons, Kershaw is 13-12 with a 4.19 ERA.

As hard as it may be to let go, it’s time for all of us to stop expecting Clayton Kershaw to be Sandy Koufax. Kershaw may yet win one or more additional World Championships but he’ll never match Koufax’s postseason record.

It doesn’t matter. One day, Kershaw is going to join Koufax with a plaque in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. When he has his day in Cooperstown, Kershaw will go in on the strength of what he’s accomplished on the mound during a remarkable 13 years during the regular season.

When it comes to October, Kershaw is no Koufax. When it comes to the games played in April through September, only a small handful of pitchers in baseball history (not including Koufax) can match what Kersh has accomplished.

Two years ago, Kershaw signed a contract extension that will keep him with the Dodgers through the 2021 season. No matter what he does in the next year and beyond, the Dallas, Texas native has already done enough to eventually get a plaque in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.

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Clayton Kershaw by the Numbers

I’m not making a big and bold pronouncement when I claim that Clayton Kershaw is a lock to go to the Hall of Fame.

For the casual fan, it’s easy for Kershaw’s previous October failures to obscure how truly great he’s been in the 357 games he’s pitched in regular-season ball. So, let’s look at some of those numbers.

• Kershaw’s career ERA of 2.43 is the lowest of any pitcher with at least 2,000 innings pitched since 1919 (the end of the “dead ball” era). Among pitchers who were primarily starting pitchers, the next best is Whitey Ford (2.75 ERA).
• His career WHIP (walks + hits per inning) of 1.003 is, again, the lowest of any pitcher with 2,000 IP in the last 102 years. The next best (Pedro Martinez) is not even close: his WHIP was 1.054.
• Opposing batters have posted a .581 OPS against Kershaw. Yes, that’s the best for any pitcher in those 102 years.
• His Win-Loss% (.697) is again, the best since 1919.

OK, well, that’s pretty good. When it comes to rate stats, Kershaw is at the top of the charts in four of them over a 102-year period. Not bad.

If Clayton Kershaw Retired Today…

Let’s start with the obvious. Clayton Kershaw is not retiring today. The big Texan is only 32 years old.

When people (including myself) play the “if he retired today” card, the purpose is to ask whether the player in question has already accomplished enough to make it into the Hall of Fame. This is why the name Koufax comes up so often; he did choose to retire before his 31st birthday.

Kershaw has logged 2,333 innings in his MLB career. In the history of the Hall of Fame, there are only three starting pitchers with less than 2,500 IP thrown who were inducted into Cooperstown.

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Addie Joss, who pitched for the Cleveland Naps from 1902-1910, passed away 2 days after his 31st birthday due to a bacterial infection. He was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 1978, side-stepping the rule that any inductee play at least 10 seasons.

Dizzy Dean was a star for the St. Louis Cardinals from 1932-1937. He was the N.L. MVP in 1934 and runner-up the following two seasons. Injuries limited Dizzy to just 230 innings pitched after his 28th birthday.

Anyway, when you remember that Joss pitched during baseball’s “dead ball” era, Kershaw’s statistics are significantly superior to the other three.

What Comes Next for Clayton Kershaw?

For years now, many observers note that Clayton Kershaw has entered the decline phase of his baseball career. Back and shoulder injuries have limited his innings in each of the last five seasons. His fastball velocity is down from his best years, clocking in at 90.4 MPH in 2019, his lowest ever. (In 2020, the average velocity of Clayton’s fastball ticked up to 91.6 but that might be a reflection of the shortened season).

In 2019, even in a “diminished” capacity, Kersh posted a 3.03 ERA in 178.1 innings pitched. That was still good enough to be 7th in the National League among qualified starters. In 2020, he posted a 2.16 ERA in 58.1 IP. That’s not enough innings to qualify for the ERA title but is still the 5th best for N.L. hurlers with at least 55 innings tossed.

So, let’s assume that Kershaw continues to “slide” and will be no more than an above-average rotation option for the rest of his career. Let’s also assume that there are no more Cy Young Awards in his future. If so, whatever his final numbers wind up being will still be terrific because of the fantastic seasons he’s had so far.

Suppose that, hypothetically, in his next 500 career innings, the Dodger left-hander posted a mediocre 4.50 ERA. If that happened, his career ERA would still be 2.80, just 4 points above Koufax’s career mark of 2.76.

It’s more likely that Kershaw will continue to pitch well (if not at the all-time great level of his past).

Clayton Kershaw’s 12 Full Seasons (2009-2020)

Clayton Kershaw, as a rookie in 2008, only pitched 107.2 innings. He was 20 years old. His 12 seasons since have been so good that they render anything he might do in the future functionally irrelevant.

From 2009-2020, Kershaw has been #1 in WAR, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, W-L%, BAA (batting average against), OPS against, complete games, shutouts and Win Probability Added (WPA, see Glossary). He’s 4th in Wins (behind Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Max Scherzer) and 3rd in Strikeouts (behind Scherzer and Verlander).

His ERA+ for the last 11 years is 163. If you’re not familiar with ERA+, the metric puts traditional ERA on a scale where 100 is average. It’s adjusted for ballpark effects and also the overall hitting environment of each season. In other words, the current homer-happy game is not the same as 1968 (baseball’s “year of the pitcher”).

Anyway, Kershaw’s 163 ERA+ means that his ERA over 11 years was 63% above the MLB average. The second-best ERA+ for these years (for pitchers tossing at least 1,500 innings) belongs to Chris Sale (140).

Now, take a look at the names of the pitchers who have authored a 12-year stretch in which they posted an ERA+ of at least 160.

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That’s the entire list. Walter Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, and Clayton Kershaw. That’s it. Five Cooperstown legends and Kersh.

Seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA

Here’s one more statistical nugget to put in Clayton Kershaw’s basket. Since his rookie campaign (2008), Kershaw has only once had an ERA above 3.00 (he posted a 3.03 ERA in 2019). He’s been under 2.50 seven times (including 2020) and under 2.00 in three different campaigns.

Using a minimum standard of 140 innings pitched, here are the pitchers with the most seasons pitched with an ERA under 3.00 in the last 100 years:

• Tom Seaver (12)
• Roger Clemens (11)
• Clayton Kershaw (10)
• Greg Maddux (10)
• Bert Blyleven (10)
• Jim Palmer (9)
• Gaylord Perry (9)
• Lefty Grove (9)

What do all of those hurlers have in common? Nothing actually, other than having 9 or more seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA. Clemens and Kershaw are not in the Hall of Fame but the others are.

Now, again using at least 140 IP, here are the pitchers with the most campaigns in which they posted an ERA under 2.50 (since 1920):

• Clayton Kershaw (6)
• Greg Maddux (6)
• Juan Marichal (6)
• Pedro Martinez (5)
• Randy Johnson (5)
• Roger Clemens (5)
• Jim Palmer (5)
• Tom Seaver (5)

Oh, by the way, there are two pitchers with three separate campaigns with an ERA under 2.00 (again, since 1920): Clayton Kershaw and Sandy Koufax.

Will Clayton Kershaw’s Postseason Record Tarnish his Hall of Fame Plaque?

The answer today, of course, is much different than it was a year ago because he now has a title. Still, Kershaw’s record isn’t just historically bad for somebody as accomplished as he is, it’s just plain bad.

• 30 pitchers in baseball history have tossed 100 or more postseason innings. Kershaw’s 4.19 ERA (in 189 IP) is the 3rd worst (behind CC Sabathia and former Dodger teammate Zack Greinke).
• 42 pitchers have thrown 20 or more postseason IP in potential “elimination” games. Kershaw’s 5.77 ERA (in 43.2 IP) is the second-worst to Tim Wakefield’s 6.75. Those 43.2 IP for Clayton include 6 starts and 5 relief appearances. The Dodgers lost 7 of those 11 games (He did not pitch in any elimination games this year).

Now, let’s be fair. You’ve got to be great to keep getting the ball in big moments despite the history of failure. The Boston Red Sox’ David Price was historically awful in playoff baseball (2-9, 5.42 ERA in 19 appearances from 2008-18) until he pulled it together for four brilliant outings against the Houston Astros and Kershaw’s Dodgers (3-0, 1.37 ERA) in 2018. Those four outings helped the Sox beat the Dodgers in the 2018 World Series.

Also, in one of Kershaw’s worst October outings (Game 5 of the 2017 World Series in Houston), the opposing hitters might have (ahem) known what pitches he was going to throw.

By the way, there are more examples of great hurlers struggling in October:

• Pedro Martinez had a 5.17 ERA in 6 career games in which his team needed to win to stay in the title chase.
• Roger Clemens had a 5.28 ERA in 7 career “win or go home” outings.
• Max Scherzer had a 5.93 ERA in 8 elimination games until he exorcised his demons with 7 innings of one-run ball in Game 4 of last year’s NLDS, again against Kershaw’s Dodgers.

Martinez, Clemens, and Scherzer all wound up as eventual World Series champs, as Kershaw now has as well.

The Dodgers have now been in 10 different postseason parties during Kershaw’s career, including the last 8 in a row as the N.L. West champs. There was a lot of failure in those years and the Dodgers’ ace lefty was at the center of a lot of it but a ring tends to cleanse all of the sins of the past.

Conclusion

Let’s imagine a scenario in which Clayton Kershaw’s career ends in the next few years. Let’s say he falls short of 200 wins. In my opinion, because of his historically great regular-season ERA, he’s still going to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

What Kershaw has done in his first 13 seasons has put him into the company of baseball’s great legends of today and yesterday. What he does in the upcoming years will determine whether he’s regarded as a peak performance Hall of Famer or an all-time great.

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