Contemporary Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot Announced

Today the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum released the names of the eight players who will be on the Contemporary Baseball Players ballot. The eight candidates include three players (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling) who were on the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) this past January for the 10th and final time without ever making it to the 75% support required to get a plaque in Cooperstown. First basemen Fred McGriff and Rafael Palmeiro are on what is also known as the Eras Committee ballot for the first time. There are three players who have been on previous Eras Committee ballots who are on this one: Dale Murphy, Don Mattingly, and Albert Belle.

Murphy and Mattingly were on the 2020 “Modern Baseball” ballot, which considered players whose primary contributions to the game were from 1970-87; Belle was on the 2019 “Today’s Game” ballot, which considered players from 1988 and beyond. Neither of the three got much support on those ballots, not registering enough votes for the Hall of Fame to report their ballot totals.

Three of the players on this ballot (Bonds, Clemens, and Palmeiro) have been linked to Performance Enhancing Drugs either due to legal action (Bonds and Clemens) or a suspension by Major League Baseball (Palmeiro). Schilling is also a controversial figure, but it’s due entirely to his outspoken political views, all shared (mostly on Twitter) in the years since he retired.

A committee of 16 members (consisting of Hall of Famers, owners, executives, and senior media members) will consider the Hall-worthiness of the eight candidates for Cooperstown and will be asked to vote for a maximum of three out of the eight candidates. In order for any candidate to make the Hall of Fame, a candidate will have to get at least 12 out of the 16 votes (75%). The committee will meet at baseball’s winter meetings in San Diego, with the results to be revealed on Sunday, December 4th.

The New Eras Committee Rotation

The Contemporary Baseball ballot is the first of its kind, a result of the Hall of Fame’s reorganization of the Eras Committee ballots; it considers players only (not managers, executives, or umpires) whose primary contribution to the game occurred in 1980 or later. The other change made to the Eras Committees is that, in the past, the ballots had ten candidates and the 16 committee members could vote for up to four of those candidates. The 75% rule is the one element of this process that has endured for decades.

The Hall’s decision to combine the players from the 1980s with the decades that followed combined with the smaller ballot, of course, means that there are many more potential candidates than can fit on one eight-man ballot. The result of this is that there are two candidates who performed well in the 2020 “Modern Baseball” ballot (Dwight Evans and Lou Whitaker) who are not going to even be considered this time. Evans, the longtime right fielder for the Boston Red Sox, got 8 out of a possible 16 votes on that ballot, putting him in 3rd place out of the 10 candidates (behind inductees Ted Simmons and union chief Marvin Miller). Whitaker, who spent 19 years at second base for the Detroit Tigers, got 7 votes, the 4th most on that ballot. Both Murphy and Mattingly got three votes or less (the Hall doesn’t report the actual vote totals, likely to not embarrass anyone who might get no votes at all).

Anyway, as a part of the Eras Committee reorganization, in December 2023, there will be a Contemporary Baseball Non-Players ballot, which will consider managers, executives, and umpires whose greatest contribution to the game occurred in 1980 or later. The top candidates for that ballot will likely be managers Lou Piniella (who fell one vote shy of the Hall in December 2018), Davey Johnson, and umpire Joe West. Then, in December 2024, the Classic Baseball ballot will consider players, managers, executives, and umpires whose greatest contributions to baseball were realized prior to 1980. The top candidates on that ballot will likely be Dick Allen (who twice has fallen one vote short of a Cooperstown plaque in the Eras Committee), Dave Parker, and Steve Garvey. It’s also possible that one or more Negro League candidates will be considered on that ballot.

Thoughts on the 2023 Contemporary Baseball Players Ballot

Regarding any prognostication about the ballot revealed today, the million-dollar question is this: who will be the 16 members of the committee tasked with voting on these eight players? Will those 16 voting members generally be “anti-PED” or “performance-only” in their philosophy about who should be in the Hall of Fame? If the committee members were to vote strictly on performance on the field, Bonds and Clemens would be easy choices.

In my opinion, it’s highly unlikely that the Hall would nominate 16 members for this committee who feel that way, given how polarizing the steroid issue was and still is. So the question within the question is whether there will be at least five voters who are vehemently against inducting PED-linked players into the Hall. If there are five “zero tolerance” voters, then Bonds and Clemens (and Palmeiro as well) have no chance to be on stage in Cooperstown next summer for the unveiling of their plaques. Oh to be a fly on the wall in the committee room!! In an alternate universe in which I were one of the 16 members of the committee, I would do my very best to “read the room” to see if there were those five anti-PED hard-liners. If I concluded that Bonds, Clemens, and Palmeiro had no chance to get 12 votes, I would articulate that position to the rest of the members, and encourage them not to waste their votes on players who would not make it to 12.

This is not the first time that a player linked to PEDs has appeared on one of these Eras Committee ballots. Mark McGwire appeared on the 2017 ballot and did not get any reported votes. But he was just one player and this was a “mixed” ballot that contained Piniella, Johnson, former MLB Commissioner Bud Selig, and longtime general manager John Schuerholz, who both made it to Cooperstown. Given that it’s easy to conclude that McGwire’s Hall of Fame candidacy was overly influenced by his steroid use, it was easy to vote against him. (It may be similarly easy for voters to dismiss Palmeiro because he actually was suspended in 2005. The BBWAA never gave him more than 12.6% of their support).

Bonds and Clemens are in a different stratosphere than either McGwire or Palmeiro. If we believe the prevailing narrative about when each started using PEDs (Clemens in 1997 or 1998, Bonds in 1999), we’re dealing with players who would likely have made the Hall of Fame if they had retired prior to ever using. Clemens had already won three Cy Young Awards in Boston; Bonds was already a three-time MVP who had become the first player ever to hit over 400 HR and steal over 400 bases (a feat yet to be matched). These guys are among the best players in the history of baseball.

My biggest concern is that Bonds and Clemens get 9 or 10 votes each. That won’t be enough to put them in the Hall of Fame but, given that voters can only choose three candidates, it will make the math significantly harder for anyone else to get to the magic number of 12 (75%). These Eras Committees are entirely capable of pitching a proverbial shutout. In December 2014, Allen, Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat, Maury Wills, and Minnie Minoso all got between 8 and 11 votes, a five-way split that kept them all out of the Hall. The opposite can also happen, of course, A year ago, whether through it was through intelligent collusion or divine intervention, the “Golden Days” Committee successfully elected Minoso, Oliva, Kaat, and Gil Hodges, with the latter three all “hitting the number” (12 votes) precisely. Sadly, Allen fell short by a single vote for a second time.

Anyway, it’s my profound hope that there’s an awareness among the 16 committee members that it’s pointless to get Bonds and Clemens close to the finish line without putting them in. The BBWAA did this for years, conferring more than 50% but less than 75% of the vote to Bonds and Clemens, using up two of their ten ballot spaces, making it harder for other players on the ballot to get enough support to get into Cooperstown.

Although I would feel bad if this keeps another player from making the Hall of Fame, I’d like it much better if this committee just decides to “rip off the scab” and elect Bonds and Clemens to the Hall of Fame. Let’s get it over with so we don’t have to keep having this debate every three years. However, if the votes aren’t there, then just don’t vote for them at all (or Palmeiro). Then you would have five candidates to consider, making it much easier for the math to work to elect a couple of players to the Hall.

There is, of course, one more polarizing player on this ballot. I’m talking about Schilling, who got very close to a Hall of Fame plaque in 2021 when he received 71.1% of the vote. Schilling’s reaction to the near-miss was to say that he’d prefer not to even be on the 2022 ballot and that he’d rather be evaluated by his peers. Although the BBWAA did not honor his request (Schilling was on the 2022 ballot), many of the writers took the position that “if you don’t want my vote, then I’ll vote for someone else”; his vote share dipped to 58.6% in his 10th and final turn on the ballot. Will the 16 committee members care about Schilling’s political views or just focus on his performance on the mound? I suspect it will be the latter.

Cooperstown Cred Prediction:

Having run through the possibilities of the committee composition, my prediction is that Fred McGriff and Curt Schilling will be elected to the Hall of Fame next month, although one of them could fall just short due to the possibility of Bonds and Clemens gobbling up too many votes.

I do know that are a lot of living Hall of Fame players who are against having Bonds and Clemens join their exclusive club. The most vociferous opponent to having PED-linked players in the Hall was Joe Morgan, the former Vice Chairman of the Hall’s Board of Directors. Morgan passed away two years ago, so his voice on this topic has been sadly muted. However, his feelings are shared by many others; the only question, again, is who will be on the committee. I have no way of knowing this, but it’s my gut feeling that the Hall’s most influential members are not keen to have Bonds and Clemens on stage getting plaques. If this is true, the committee will likely be filled with enough PED hard-liners to keep Bonds and Clemens from getting those 12 votes.

On the other hand, I think McGriff is very likely to be favored by the committee members. It’s easy to make the case that he has been collateral damage in the PED era, that his 493 home runs, which once would have punched his ticket to Cooperstown, were diminished by the stratospheric home run totals of the steroid era. The Crime Dog was widely liked and admired during his 19-year career. Any sentiment against electing Bonds, Clemens, or Palmeiro will be to McGriff’s benefit.

Likewise, I can’t see that the committee will care at all that Schilling has publicly espoused conservative political views, some of which have been controversial. The BBWAA is filled with writers who work and live in big cities. There are many who are openly liberal, which is their right. But I suspect that the 16 committee members will skew more conservative. I think that they’ll see is a winner, a guy who was on three teams that won the World Series. They’ll see a guy who was on the mound five times with his team facing elimination in the postseason and a guy who won all five of those starts.

As for the other candidates, Murphy, Mattingly, and Belle have been on these ballots before and they haven’t gotten anywhere. Although I’m personally in favor of Murphy for the Hall, there are holes that can be easily poked in his Hall of Fame case. What all three of these players share in common is that their careers were arguably not long enough to enshrine them in Cooperstown (you can see details in the linked pieces below).

As for Palmeiro, if anyone votes for him, they’ll also be voting for Bonds and Clemens by definition, leaving no space for anyone else. I really doubt there will be any member of the committee who wants to vote only for PED-linked players at the exclusion of the other five men. So, I doubt Palmeiro will get even one vote.

Overall, I see Palmeiro and Belle as the proverbial “sacrificial lambs” on this ballot, players that are easy to dismiss. For Palmeiro, it’s because of his PED suspension. As for Belle, he was a polarizing player and only logged 6,676 plate appearances in 12 years. If nobody votes for either player (or only one or two voters do), that will accrue to the benefit of the other six. Mattingly also had a short career (7,772 PA) but he has the kind of universal goodwill in the game of baseball that Belle lacks. The same is true for Murphy, who was one of the nicest superstars to ever play the game.

If there’s a strong sentiment against Bonds and Clemens, Murphy could be the “breakout” candidate. I use the term breakout because he’s been on these ballots twice before and not gotten anywhere. For any “zero tolerance” voters with respect to PEDs, I could see a lot of ballots checking the names of Schilling, McGriff, and Murphy.

The Eight Candidates (with Linked Bios/Profiles for Seven)

Below is a list of the eight players on the ballot announced today with links to pieces previously authored on Cooperstown Cred about their respective candidacies (the profiles for Bonds and Clemens are linked together):

• Bonds, Barry
• Belle, Albert
• Clemens, Roger
• Mattingly, Don
• McGriff, Fred
• Murphy, Dale
• Palmeiro, Rafael
• Schilling, Curt

I have not written yet about Rafael Palmeiro, so his candidate bio is not linked here.

Finally, here are capsule looks (the “Cooperstown Cred”) for each of the eight candidates for the Contemporary Baseball Players Ballot:

Cooperstown Cred: Barry Bonds (LF)

10 years on the BBWAA ballot (received 66.0% of the vote in 2022)

• Pittsburgh Pirates (1986-92), San Francisco Giants (1993-2007)
• Career: .298 BA, .444 OBP, .607 SLG, 762 HR, 1,996 RBI, 514 SB
• Career: 182 OPS+, 162.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 762 HR and 2,558 BB are the most in baseball history
• 73 home runs in 2001, the most for a single season in MLB history
• Only player in MLB history with over 400 HR and over 400 SB
• Career 162.8 WAR is the most for position players in MLB history
• 7-time N.L. MVP (1990, ’92, ’93, ’01, ’02, ’03, ’04)
• 8-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 12-time Silver Slugger
• 14-time All-Star

Bonds is arguably the greatest player in the history of baseball. He should be in the Hall of Fame. As I argued above, let’s rip off the scab and put him and Clemens into Cooperstown. Aren’t we all tired of this debate? Let’s be done with it.

Cooperstown Cred: Roger Clemens (SP)

10 years on the BBWAA ballot (received 65.2% of the vote in 2022)

• Boston Red Sox (1984-96), Toronto Blue Jays (1997-98), New York Yankees (1999-2003, 2007), Houston Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 354-184 (.658 WL%), 3.12 ERA, 4,672 strikeouts
• Career: 143 ERA+, 138.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Won 20 or more games 6 times
• Only pitcher ever to strike out 20 batters in a game twice
• Career 139.0 WAR is 3rd most all-time for pitchers (Cy Young, Walter Johnson)
• 7-time Cy Young Award Winner (1986, ’87, ’91, ’97, ’98, ’01, ’04)
• Won 1986 A.L. MVP (24-4, 2.48 ERA)
• 11-time All-Star
• Won Pitching Triple Crown (Wins, ERA, SO) in 1997 & 1998

Same as with Bonds, although I don’t think Clemens is the greatest pitcher in baseball history. But he’s very close. If he had retired after the 1996 season (his last in Boston), he would have had a 192-11 record (.634) with a 3.06 ERA, 2,590 strikeouts, and an 80.7 WAR. With three Cy Youngs in tow, he would have made the Hall as a peak-performance case.

Cooperstown Cred: Curt Schilling (SP)

10 years on the BBWAA ballot (received 58.6% of the vote in 2022)

• Orioles (1988-90), Astros (1991), Phillies (1992-2000), Diamondbacks (2000-03), Red Sox (2004-07)
• Career: 216-146 (.597 WL%), 3.46 ERA
• Career: 127 ERA+, 80.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 3,116 career strikeouts, over 300 strikeouts three times
• Won 20 or more games three times
• Member of 3 World Series Champion teams
• 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 19 postseason starts
• 2nd in Cy Young Award voting three times

I don’t care that Schilling is a Trump fan and, although I disagree vehemently with this, I don’t really care that he is sympathetic to the January 6th rioters. I care about what he did on the mound. If one were to create a “Hall for the Fall” for pitchers, he would be right at the top with Sandy Koufax.

If the notes listed above aren’t enough, how’s this one: Schilling’s career ratio of strikeouts to walks (4.38) is the best since 1884 for pitchers with a minimum of 3,000 innings pitched. Schilling should have been in the Hall a long time ago.

Cooperstown Cred: Rafael Palmeiro (1B)

4 years on the BBWAA Ballot (received 4.4% of the vote in 2014)

• Cubs (1986-88), Rangers (1989-93, 1999-03), Orioles (1994-98, 2004-05)
• Career: .288 BA, .371 OBP, .515 SLG, 569 HR, 1,835 RBI
• Career: 71.9 WAR, 132 OPS+
• 1,192 career extra-base hits (tied for 8th most all-time)
• 30 or more home runs 10 times in his career
• 3 times in the Top 10 MVP voting
• 4-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove winner

As I indicated earlier, I doubt a single member of the Contemporary Baseball Players Committee will vote for Palmeiro, although, by the numbers, he should be in the Hall of Fame. Palmeiro is one of only seven players in Major League Baseball history to swat more than 500 home runs and collect more than 3,000 hits. The others are Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, and Miguel Cabrera. Pujols will join Aaron, Mays, and Murray in Cooperstown in 2028 and Cabrera will join him six years after he retires. A-Rod and Palmeiro are going to have to wait a while because of their PED suspensions.

Cooperstown Cred: Fred McGriff (1B)

10 years on the BBWAA ballot (received 39.8% of the vote in 2019)

• Toronto Blue Jays (1986-90), San Diego Padres (1991-93), Atlanta Braves (1993-97), Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1998-2001, ’04), Chicago Cubs (2001-02), Los Angeles Dodgers (2003)
• Career: .284 BA, .377 OBP, .509 SLG, 493 HR, 1,550 RBI
• Career: 134 OPS+, 52.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• .303, 10 HR, 37 RBI, .917 OPS in 50 post-season games
• 30 or more home runs 10 times in his career
• OPS+ of 140 or more 9 times in his career
• 6 times in the Top 10 of MVP voting
• 5-time All-Star

If it weren’t for the players’ strike of 1994-95, McGriff almost certainly would have swatted 500 or more career home runs. As it is, his 493 taters are the most in baseball history for an eligible player for the Hall of Fame who hasn’t made it among players never suspected of using PEDs. The Crime Dog got squeezed on a lot of the BBWAA ballots he was on (because voters were limited to 10 selections) but surged from 23.2% to 39.8% in his last turn with the BBWAA (in 2019).

In the history of the Eras Committee voting (previously known as the Veterans Committee), there’s been a strong trend that the voters care about longevity and career numbers. In December 2018, the “Today’s Game” Committee elected Lee Smith (478 saves) and Harold Baines (2,886 hits), likely because they came close to some big milestone numbers. My strong feeling is that the Contemporary Baseball Committee will do the same with McGriff.

Cooperstown Cred: Albert Belle (LF)

2 years on the BBWAA ballot (received 3.5% of the vote in 2007)

• Indians (1989-96), White Sox (1997-98), Orioles (1999-2000)
• Career: .295 BA, .369 OBP, .564 SLG, 381 HR, 1.239 RBI
• Career: 144 OPS+, 40.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Finished in the top 3 of A.L. MVP voting three straight years (1994-96)
• Led A.L. in RBI three times (1993, ’95, ’96)
• Only player in MLB history with 50 HR & 50 doubles in one season (1995)
• 5-time All-Star
• 5-time Silver Slugger

Given that he’s been on the Eras Committee ballots twice before and gotten no recorded support I’m surprised that Belle made this ballot. He was a fantastic hitter but his career was just too short. As noted earlier, Belle only logged 6,676 plate appearances in his 12-year career. Only one position player to make his MLB debut in 1948 or later has made the Hall of Fame with less than 7,000 career plate appearances. That one player was Tony Oliva, elected last December at the age of 83. Oliva had to wait forever to get the Hall call and has something Belle lacks. Oliva was universally beloved in Minnesota and had a longtime public relations campaign helping boost his candidacy. Belle doesn’t have that.

The best Hall of Fame comparison to Belle is Ralph Kiner, who only logged 6,256 PA in ten MLB campaigns. It took Kiner 15 ballots with the BBWAA to make it to Cooperstown. Again, Kiner was a beloved figure. He was a regular in the broadcast booth for the New York Mets when he finally made it into the Hall of Fame. Regarding his statistical resume, Kiner also had something that Belle doesn’t; he led his league in home runs for seven consecutive seasons.

As with Palmeiro, I doubt Belle will get much support on this ballot, maybe one or two votes.

Cooperstown Cred: Dale Murphy (CF)

15 years on the BBWAA ballot (received 18.6% of the vote in 2013)

• Atlanta Braves (1976-90), Philadelphia Phillies (1990-92), Colorado Rockies (1993)
• Career: .265 BA, 398 HR, 1,266 RBI, 2,111 Hits
• Career: 121 OPS+, 46.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 1982 N.L. MVP: .281 BA, 36 HR, 109 RBI, 113 runs
• 1983 N.L. MVP: .302 BA, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 131 runs, 30 SB
• 5 different seasons with 30+ home runs; 12 different seasons with 20+ HR
• 7-time All-Star
• 5-time Gold Glove Award winner, 4-time Silver Slugger

As I indicated earlier, if there’s a strong hardcore sentiment against Bonds, Clemens, and Palmeiro, Murphy could be the breakout candidate on this ballot. His overall numbers are a little soft, but he did win two MVPs and has a strong peak performance case. To me, he’s a weaker candidate than McGriff or Schilling but has a much stronger case than Belle or Mattingly.

Cooperstown Cred: Don Mattingly (1B)

15 years on the BBWAA ballot (received 9.1% of the vote in 2015)

• New York Yankees (1982-95)
• Career: .307 BA, 222 HR, 1099 RBI
• Career: 127 OPS+, 42.4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 1985 A.L. MVP (.324 BA, 35 HR, 145 RBI, 211 hits, 156 OPS+)
• 2nd to Roger Clemens for 1986 MVP (.352 BA, 31 HR, 113 RBI, 238 hits, 161 OPS+)
• Led MLB in doubles for three consecutive years (1984-1986)
• Tied MLB record with home runs in 8 consecutive games (1987)
• 6-time All-Star
• 9-time Gold Glove Winner

This is the third time that Mattingly has been on an Eras Committee ballot and, to me, for the third time, the screening committee picked the wrong first baseman from New York. For a variety of reasons (detailed in this piece), I feel that Keith Hernandez has a much stronger candidate for Cooperstown.

Still, we must deal with the cards we’re dealt. Mattingly, like Belle, has a strong case for peak performance, but his peak was for only six years (1984-89). He was an All-Star for each of those six seasons and never made the Mid-Summer Classic thereafter, simply because his productivity had sagged significantly. Mattingly also suffers from being the third-best first-base option on this ballot (behind McGriff and Palmeiro).

Mattingly’s best chance at a plaque in Cooperstown would seem to be if he has the good fortune of getting another managerial job, this time with a team with resources. It’s always possible that he’ll be the manager of the New York Yankees someday. If he gets that gig and can win a World Series title or two from the dugout (something he never did as a player), he might have a strong hybrid case, combining his overall career as a manager and a skipper.

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