Cooperstown Cred 2022 Hall of Fame Virtual Ballot

Today at 6:00p ET, live on the MLB Network and mlb.com, Josh Rawitch, the President of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, will announce the results of the 2022 Hall of Fame voting from the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America). Based on the early reported voting (tallied on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker), it is likely that there will be only one new Hall of Famer to announce.

At the time I’m writing this, only one candidate (Red Sox legend David Ortiz) is tracking significantly above the 75% threshold required to earn a plaque in the museum in Cooperstown. Based on the first 194 reported votes, Big Papi has 83.5% support. Barry Bonds (77.8%) and Roger Clemens (76.8%) are also currently sitting at above 75%. However, because the writers who keep their ballots private are generally less forgiving to players accused of using performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs), Bonds and Clemens have always had final tallies significantly lower than their reported vote on the tracker. Those of us who study the voting believe that there is virtually no chance that Bonds and Clemens will finish above 75%.

This is the 10th and final year of ballot eligibility the ballot for Bonds, Clemens, Sammy Sosa, and pitcher Curt Schilling. Two years ago, Schilling earned 70.0% of the vote. Historically, a player who hits 70% and still has eligibility left for the BBWAA ballot crosses the finish line in the next year or two. However, Schilling’s outspoken political views, especially about the 2020 presidential election, turned off a lot of voters. He made virtually no forward progress on the 2021 ballot, getting just 71.1% of the vote. After the announcement, Schilling declared that he’d prefer not to be a BBWAA candidate in 2022 and would rather have his Hall of Fame fate determined by the Eras Committee, the Hall’s “second chance” ballot featuring 16-person committees that contain many Hall of Fame players. (The Hall rejected Schilling’s request).

Anyway, Schilling was the top vote-getter in 2021, which means that the BBWAA failed to elect a single player for the first time since 2013.

I am not a Hall of Fame voter and almost certainly never will be but I’ll stack the number of hours I spend thinking and writing about the Hall of Fame with all but a handful of the voting members of the BBWAA.

And so, with all lack of humility, I hereby submit my virtual Cooperstown Cred ballot for the Hall of Fame Class of 2022. Just as the writers are limited to 10 selections, I’ll do the same. However, I will also indicate which other candidates (if any) outside of my top 10 deserve a Cooperstown plaque in the future.

I am listing these in order of their projected vote on Thibodaux’s tracker, and have included links to the full-length profiles/analyses I’ve written about each.

(cover photo — courtesy Anthony Calamis from Thibodaux’s tracker team.

1. David Ortiz (DH) (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Twins (1997-2002), Red Sox (2003-16)
• Career: .286 BA, 541 HR, 1,768 RBI, 2,472 Hits
• Career: 141 OPS+, 55.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 1,192 career extra-base hits (8th most all-time, behind Aaron, Bonds, Musial, Ruth, Mays, Pujols, A. Rodriguez)
• 10-time All-Star
• Won three World Series titles with Boston (2004, 2007, 2013)

When he’s elected to the Hall of Fame, David Ortiz will put a big dose of “fame” into the Hall. Based on his current tracker support (84.5%), I’d say there’s a much better than 50-50 chance that he’ll pass 75% this year. But, if he doesn’t, he’ll be close enough that he’ll be a near-certainty to be elected in 2023.

With 541 home runs and the 8th most extra-base hits in Major League Baseball history, Ortiz has the requisite regular-season resume to deserve a plaque in Cooperstown based on his deeds from April to September. But it’s his October resume that puts a huge cherry on top of his postseason sundae. According to Win Probability Added (WPA), which measures the relative importance of every hit or out in all regular or postseason games, Ortiz has been the most clutch postseason history in baseball history.

If you’re not a fan of advanced metrics, try this one on for size: for all players in World Series history with at least 50 plate appearances, Ortiz has the highest BA (.455) and OBP (.576) of any player in the history of the Fall Classic and also has the second-highest SLG (.795).

Ortiz did fail a survey test for PEDs in 2003 but commissioner Rob Manfred said (in 2016) that the 2003 tests included several false positives and should not be used as a reason to tarnish Big Papi’s legacy. What makes Ortiz different from every other PED-linked candidate on the current ballot is that he passed MLB’s drug tests for the final 12 seasons of his career (2005-16).

For more on what makes Ortiz an easy call for the Hall, please click here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 83.5%

2. Barry Bonds – LF (10th year on BBWAA ballot) (61.8% in 2021)

• Pirates (1986-92), Giants (1993-2007)
• Career: 762 HR, 1,996 RBI, 514 SB, 182 OPS+, 162.8 WAR
• Owns career (762) and single-season (73) records for home runs
• 7-time N.L. MVP, 14-time All-Star
• 8-time Gold Glove Award Winner, 12-time Silver Slugger

I have always been in favor of electing Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens to the Hall of Fame, despite their almost certain use of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). Bonds is, simply put, the best baseball player I have ever witnessed with my own eyes.

The prevailing narrative about Bonds’ use of PEDs is that he was irritated by all of the attention Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were receiving in 1998 during their historic run at Roger Maris’ single-season home run record. If you believe that Bonds started using PEDs in 1999, the year after the Great Home Run Chase, here is how his career statistics at the time (through ’98) stack up against other Hall of Fame outfielders that could hit with power and run a bit.

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When you consider the fact that, at the age of 34, Bonds was already the only player in the history of baseball to record 400 home runs and 400 stolen bases, he would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer if he retired to become a monk in Tibet and never sniffed a PED.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 77.8%

3. Roger Clemens – SP (10th year on BBWAA ballot) (61.6% in 2021)

• Red Sox (1984-96), Blue Jays (1997-98), Yankees (1999-2003, ’07), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 354-184 (.658 WL%), 3.12 ERA, 4,672 SO, 143 ERA+, 138.7 WAR
• Only pitcher ever to strike out 20 batters in a game twice
• 1986 A.L. MVP, 7-time Cy Young Award Winner, 11-time All-Star

The story with Roger Clemens is essentially the same as it is with Bonds although, for me personally, I can’t say he’s necessarily the best pitcher I ever saw. Clearly, the overall volume of work is vastly superior to any other hurlers of his generation but Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, and Randy Johnson at their best could certainly give the Rocket a run for his money.

Anyway, nobody is certain when Clemens started using PEDs (or if he did with absolute certainty). According to his trainer with the Toronto Blue Jays (Brian McNamee), he didn’t start injecting Clemens with Winstrol until 1998, Clemens’ second season with the Blue Jays. The year is kind of important. Clemens had arguably the best season of his career in 1997 (21-7, 2.05 ERA), the year before he allegedly started using.

For the sake of argument, take a look at Clemens’ career numbers through the 1996 season (his last year with the Boston Red Sox) and compare them to the entire career of the late Roy Halladay, who was inducted into the Hall of Fame posthumously a few years ago.

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Clemens has statistics to match Halladay’s entire career based solely on his Red Sox years from 1984-96. Besides the 3 Cy Young Awards, Clemens also owned an MVP trophy by 1996 and had already had two separate games in which he struck out 20 batters.

If Clemens had decided to hang up his spikes after the 1996 season and become a rancher in Texas, he would have been a Hall of Famer anyway.

I understand that there is a significant bloc of Hall of Fame voters who doesn’t want to “reward” players they consider to be “cheaters” with a Cooperstown plaque. I get it. But the truth is that the game of baseball was very permissive at the time. There was no drug testing policy. The media paid scant attention to the issue for years.

It’s a near-certainty now that neither Bonds nor Clemens will not reach the magic number of 75% this year. However, they’re eligible to be considered again by the “Today’s Game” Eras Committee, which will meet this December.

For more on the annual conundrum of what to do about Bonds and Clemens, click here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 76.8%

4. Scott Rolen – 3B (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (52.9% in 2021)

• Phillies (1996-2002), Cardinals (2002-07), Blue Jays (2008-09), Reds (2009-12)
• Career: .281 BA, 316 HR, 1,287 RBI, 122 OPS+, 70.1 WAR
• 7-time All-Star, 8-time Gold Glove Winner, 2002 N.L. Silver Slugger

As it was with Larry Walker (who was elected to the Hall two years ago), Scott Rolen is a WAR candidate (as I write about in more detail here). Both have a WAR over 70 and both are over that number based on superior defensive metrics, which are backed by Gold Glove hardware.

If you think about it, it’s fairly surprising that Rolen did so poorly on his first two ballots (10% and 17%). Besides the high WAR, there is the combination of a power bat and Gold Glove awards. First of all, there are only two third sackers in baseball history with more Gold Gloves, Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt. The “club” of third basemen with 300+ home runs and 8 Gold Gloves is a club with two members, Schmidt and Rolen. Schmidt, incidentally, once told The Athletic’s Jayson Stark that Rolen was better than him defensively. 

Rolen got 52.9% of the vote last year and has surged dramatically in the early voting reported by Thibodaux, currently tracking at 69.6%. That total will drop when the final votes are tallied but it’s a surge that portends a Cooperstown plaque in 2023 or 2024.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 69.6%

5. Curt Schilling – SP (10th year on BBWAA ballot) (71.1% in 2021)

• Orioles (1988-90), Astros (1991), Phillies (1992-2000). D’Backs (2000-03), Red Sox (2004-07)
• Career: 216-146 (.597 WL%), 3.46 ERA, 3,116 SO, 127 ERA+, 80.5 WAR
• Postseason career: 11-2, 2.23 ERA in 133.1 IP (won 3 championships)
• 6-time All-Star

Curt Schilling has had to wait for his call to the Hall of Fame because he finished his career with only 216 wins, because he never won a Cy Young Award, and, in part, because of his conservative political views, espoused on Twitter (more about that here).

It should be noted that, after the 2021 BBWAA ballots had been cast, Schilling’s political positions became even more controversial. After the riot at the nation’s Capitol on January 6th, the shaming of Trump supporters intensified. Apparently, some BBWAA writers asked the Hall if they could change their ballots after the fact (ballots were due on December 31st). As previously noted, Schilling asked to be removed from the 2022 ballot, but the Hall of Fame rejected that request. Still, for this voting cycle, many writers have decided to honor his request and not vote for him in 2022. Thus, his support has sagged to 61.3% according to the latest tallies on Thibodaux’s tracker.

Schilling’s outspoken political views don’t change the fact that he was a dominant pitcher, especially in his 30’s, and arguably the best postseason starting pitcher in the last 50 years. Also, there is this: Schilling’s career 4.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the best in MLB since 1884 (min 1,500 IP). That’s 1884 (President Chester Arthur), not 1984 (Ronald Reagan).

Finally, Schilling’s career WAR of 80.5 is the second-best for any pitcher not already enshrined into the Hall of Fame except for Clemens.

Curt Schilling belongs in the Hall of Fame but it’s clear that he’ll get his stated with, not to be elected by the writers. As with Bonds and Clemens, he’ll be eligible for the Eras Committee ballot this December.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 61.3%

6. Todd Helton – 1B (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (44.9% in 2021)

• Colorado Rockies (1997-2013)
• Career: .316 BA, 369, 1,406 RBI, 2,519 Hits, 133 OPS+, 61.8 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove, 4-time Silver Slugger

I will admit that a couple of years ago when I was deciding for the first time whether Todd Helton belonged in the Hall of Fame or not, it made my brain hurt a little bit. This is thanks to him having played all of the home games in his career at Coors Field.

Sabermetric pioneer Bill James thinks he’s a Hall of Famer, which is usually good enough for me. This is what James wrote in the 2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook:

“Helton’s numbers… are SO good that nobody knows what to do with them. Helton played not only in a very high-run era, but also in a hitter’s paradise. People know intuitively that his numbers are misleading and you need to let some of the air out of them, but they don’t know intuitively how much. 

But if you will pardon my saying, that’s what guys like me are good for. Guys like Tom Tango, John Dewan, Sean Forman and myself… we know how to handle THAT problem. We normalize everything for context all of the time.

Even if you adjust for the context, Todd Helton was a Hall of Famer.”

— Bill James (2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook)

On Baseball-Reference, Helton’s top two “most similar” players based on “Similarity Scores” (a James invention) are Jeff Bagwell and Edgar Martinez. That’s pretty great company although, remember, those three players didn’t spend half of their careers in Colorado.

Again, Bill James is somebody that I revere. He says that he’s accounted for the “Coors effect” with respect to Helton’s statistics. I took a deep dive into the numbers and concluded that James is correct. Of course, he was correct!

Helton is in fact worthy of the Hall of Fame. More writers are coming to that conclusion: he’s tracking at nearly 60% which, combined with the fact that he has 5 years left on the BBWAA ballot after this year, tells me that he’s going to make it into Cooperstown.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 57.2%

7. Gary Sheffield – OF (8th year on the BBWAA ballot) (40.6% in 2021)

• Brewers (1988-91), Padres (1992-93), Marlins (1993-98), Dodgers (1998-2001), Braves (2002-03), Yankees (2004-06), Tigers (2007-08), Mets (2009)
• Career: .292 BA, 509 HR, 1676 RBI, 2,689 Hits, 140 OPS+, 60.5 WAR
• 9-time All-Star, 5-time Silver Slugger

Thanks to a crowded ballot and an admitted use of PEDs, Gary Sheffield never got more than 14% of the Hall of Fame vote in his first years on the ballot (he rose to 30.5% on the less-stacked 2020 ballot and to 40.6% a year ago). As a PED user, what makes Sheffield different from most of the others is that he admitted it right away and says he didn’t know that the “cream” he was using was a steroid. Clearly, some writers have decided to give him a pass for that reason. His “tracker” support remains stuck at under 50%.

After filling out in his early 20’s, Sheffield’s body type looked consistently rock solid but not outrageously so. I am inclined to believe that he was a one-time “oops” user.

What we know for sure is that he was a fantastic and highly feared hitter. His overall career WAR is destroyed by horrible defensive metrics. The only hitters with a higher offensive WAR (oWAR) than Sheffield’s 80.8 who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Bonds, A-Rod, Pujols, Pete Rose, and Manny Ramirez.

Just using oWAR, Sheffield is ahead of Frank Thomas, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Thome, Reggie Jackson, Jeff Bagwell, Dave Winfield, Willie McCovey, and Harmon Killebrew. Regardless of what he did or didn’t do in the field, that’s a Hall of Famer to me. For more on Sheffield, click here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 48.5%

8. Alex Rodriguez (SS/3B) (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Mariners (1994-2000), Rangers (2001-03), Yankees (2004-2016)
• Career: .295 BA, .696 HR, 2,086 RBI, 3,115 Hits
• Career: 140 OPS+, 117.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• One of 3 players with 650 HR, 2000 RBI, and 3000 Hits (Aaron, Pujols)
• 4th on all-time lists for HR and RBI
• 3-time American League MVP (2003, ’05, ’07), with three other top 3 finishes
• 14-time All-Star
• 2-time Gold Glove Winner, 10-time Silver Slugger

Alex Rodriguez admitted using PEDs with the Rangers in 2001-03 and was suspended by MLB for a year due to the biogenesis scandal. There are a lot of writers who, when it comes to PEDs, draw a line between the “no-testing” era before 2005 and the years since then, when all players have been tested frequently. It’s why David Ortiz will make it into the Hall of Fame and A-Rod will not. Ortiz was never suspended, while Rodriguez missed the entire 2014 season.

Rodriguez was a fantastic player, an all-time great. He paid his proverbial sentence (“did his time”) by missing an entire season. He’s a player in good standing in Major League Baseball. We have no idea how many players used PEDs but we do know that A-Rod was one of the very best players in the game. Given that there are almost certainly PED users already in the Hall of Fame, I’m tepidly comfortable with A-Rod joining them with a plaque in Cooperstown.

However, I don’t have a vote. The people who do are, so far, not in close to the numbers necessary to put A-Rod at 75%. It’s clear to me that his only chance at getting into the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA is if the Eras Committee (either this December or in a future year) decides to elect Bonds and Clemens.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 38.7%

9. Manny Ramirez  – OF (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (28.2% in 2021)

• Indians (1993-2000), Red Sox (2001-08), Dodgers (2008-10), White Sox (2010), Rays (2011)
• Career: .312 BA, 555 HR, 1,831 RBI, 2,574 Hits, 154 OPS+, 69.3 WAR
• 12-time All-Star, 9-time Silver Slugger

If it were based solely on his performance, of course, Manny Ramirez would be a Hall of Famer. Manny could flat-out hit and hit in the clutch. He has the most career postseason home runs in the history of baseball and the 3rd most regular-season grand slams (behind Lou Gehrig and A-Rod).

For more on where Manny ranks among the great hitters in baseball history and why I’m forgiving him for his two failed drug tests, I invite you to click here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 36.1%

10. Jeff Kent – 2B (9th year on the BBWAA ballot) (32.4% in 2021)

• Blue Jays (1992), Mets (1992-96), Indians (’96), Giants (1997-2002), Astros (2003-04), Dodgers (2005-08)
• Career: .290 BA, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 2,461 Hits, 123 OPS+, 55.5 WAR
• 377 home runs (most all-time for 2B)
• 2000 NL MVP (.334 BA, 33 HR, 125 RBI)
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger

I have always been simultaneously baffled that Jeff Kent has gotten no respect from the BBWAA over the last eight years while also understanding why he hasn’t.

Why baffled? Kent has the most home runs all-time for a second baseman. He has the third-most RBI (behind Hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby and Nap Lajoie). His .500 career slugging percentage is second best only to Hornsby. His 560 doubles are fourth-best to Craig Biggio, Lajoie, and Charlie Gehringer (all Hall of Famers). In “RBat” (the Runs Above Average Batting component of WAR), he’s 6th, behind Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Lajoie, Joe Morgan, and Gehringer. Again, all in the Hall of Fame.

Why do I understand it? Year after year, it’s been a packed ballot, baby! I didn’t have room for Kent in my virtual top 10 until a few years ago. I’ve listed him 10th here simply because he’s the lowest-ranked of my ten selections according to the Thibodaux tracker.

The lack of support for Kent is also due to the fact that his WAR is relatively low, thanks to a high double-play rate and poor defensive metrics. Finally, it’s true that Kent was a late bloomer, and Hall of Famer players usually imprint themselves into the brains of the BBWAA members early in their careers. Kent didn’t become a star until he was 29 when Giants manager Dusty Baker had the faith to put his new second baseman into the middle of the order.

Having said that, Kent’s not going to make it via the BBWAA. He’s stuck in quicksand with the voters and only has one year left on the ballot after this year. I do think that he might fare well with the Eras Committee. Those “second chance” committees often keep it really simple: “most HR ever for a 2nd baseman” might be all he needs to get that plaque.

For more on why I feel Kent belongs in the Hall of Fame, please click here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 32.0%

Other Hall-Worthy Players on the Ballot

If the Hall of Fame offered its members a “binary ballot” (where they could choose “yes” or “no” without a limit of 10 names per year), a great many voters would have checked more than 10 in previous years. The 2022 ballot has 12 players for whom I’d feel comfortable voting “yes” for the Hall of Fame. However, I’m going to use the same “virtual” rules as the real rules for the actual BBWAA members and keep it to 10.

But there are two others who I had my 2021 virtual ballot, Sammy Sosa and Andy Pettitte.

11. Sammy Sosa (10th year on the BBWAA ballot) (17.0% in 2021)

• Rangers (1989), White Sox (1989-91), Cubs (1992-2004), Orioles (2005), Rangers (2007)
• Career: .273 BA, 609 HR, 1,667 RBI, 128 OPS+, 58.6 WAR
• 1998 N.L. MVP, 7-time All-Star, 6-time Silver Slugger

Amazingly, despite the 609 home runs, Sammy Sosa’s 58.6 WAR is only the 12th highest on the 2021 BBWAA ballot. If you need an excuse not to put him in your top 10 that is not PED-related, there it is.

I didn’t put Sammy on my virtual ballot this year simply because he wasn’t one of the 10 best players eligible for a vote. Additionally, the thing that makes him a potential Hall of Famer (all the home runs) lacks some authenticity. Can you believe that, by the metrics that make up WAR, Sosa was a better defensive player than an offensive player from 1995-97?

At the end of 1997 (his age 28 season), Sammy had 207 career home runs. Five years later, he had 499, which included three seasons of 60 or more. I used to feel strongly that Sosa’s home run surge was an outright fraud. After reading some fascinating research about the impact of steroids on home run totals I’ve softened that position somewhat but still can’t get over the idea that his chief calling card was a chemical creation. So, I’m tepidly in favor of Sosa for the Hall but would not include him on my virtual top 10.

Like Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling, Sosa will be eligible to be considered by the Eras Committee this December. It’s hard to imagine that he would get more support there than the other three, or than Fred McGriff or Bruce Bochy, two other potential candidates this December. The only chance that Sosa has of getting a plaque in Cooperstown is if Bonds and Clemens make it first.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 24.2%

12. Andy Pettitte  – SP (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (13.7% in 2020)

• Yankees (1995-2003, ’07-’13), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 256-153 (.626 WL%), 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, 60.7 WAR
• Career postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA in 44 starts (won 5 championships)
• 3-time All-Star

Andy Pettitte is a guy who looked like a future Hall of Famer when watching him in the first three seasons of his career. In his sophomore campaign (1996), he was a 21-game winner (finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting) and a member of the World Champion New York Yankees. In 1997 the tall left-hander went 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA (good enough for a 156 OPS+ and 8.4 WAR).

The fact is, however, after 1997, Pettitte only had one season in which he was in the top 30 of all starting pitchers in WAR. That one season was 2005, with the Astros, when he went 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA (177 ERA+, 6.8 WAR). The timing of that great campaign was perfect; he helped Houston make the playoffs (barely) as the Wild Card team. The Astros subsequently won their first-ever pennant.

Because the Yankees and Astros made the playoffs 14 times in his 18 MLB campaigns, Pettitte is the all-time postseason leader in games started (44) and thus, also leads in wins (19) and innings (276.2). His playoff ERA (3.81) mirrors almost precisely his regular-season ERA (3.85).

If you put a gun to my head and made me the ultimate arbiter of Pettitte’s Cooperstown fate, I’d say “yes” but I’m not crazy about his case. Not being a top 30 in the majors in WAR for most of one’s career is not something that screams “Hall of Fame.”

If Pettitte had spent 16 years of his career with the Kansas City Royals instead of the New York Yankees, he wouldn’t be anywhere near the Hall of Fame. A “yes” for Pettitte is an acknowledgment that who gets into Cooperstown isn’t always fair, that playing for great teams helps. Anyway, Pettitte is still not in the top 10 for most of the voting members of the BBWAA and continues to do poorly in the voting.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 10.3%

Other Players I Might Consider in the Future

Because I believe in a big Hall of Fame (one in which the players are today are represented equally with the players of the first 100 years of recorded history), I’m open to changing my mind on several players who currently feel a bit short to me. The first two players on this list have a good chance to make it into Cooperstown in the future based on the fact that they’re polling at nearly 50% right now in Thibodaux’s tracker.

Again, I’m listing these players in order of their current level of support on the Hall tracker.

13. Billy Wagner  – RP (7th year on the BBWAA ballot) (46.4% in 2021)

• Career: 422 Saves (86% success rate), 2.31 ERA, 187 ERA+, 27.8 WAR
• 7-time All-Star

Billy Wagner has some key things going for him. His career 2.31 ERA is the second-best in the last 100 years to Rivera (for pitchers with a minimum of 750 innings pitched). Using the same minimum, his 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings are the best in the history of baseball. His career WHIP (walks + hits per 9 innings) is 0.998, second-best in history to Hall of Famer Addie Joss.

So why is Wagner not in the Hall of Fame yet? The problem is the innings, as in only 903 pitched. Rivera threw 1,283.2 (to go with 652 saves). Trevor Hoffman threw 1,089.1 (along with 601 saves). Although the three closers were contemporaries, Wagner was much more of a “clean 9th inning” pitcher than the others (more details in this piece I updated recently).

Here’s a troubling statistic I uncovered through some extensive research after re-posting my full-length piece: in the 81 times Wagner entered a save situation with runners on base, his ERA was 4.23. That mediocre number does not include the 38 out of 119 inherited runners that he allowed to cross home plate. So, including inherited runners, Wagner allowed 78 runners to score (in 83 innings) when he was tasked to be a “fireman” by squelching an existing rally.

There does appear to be momentum building for Wagner. He got 46.4% of the vote last year after languishing at under 40% in his first four turns with the BBWAA. Again, as it is with Andruw Jones, he’s got the kind of BBWAA support that usually means he’ll be elected in the future, either with the writers or the Eras Committee.

Personally, I’d like to see if Wagner’s spectacular rate stats hold up over the next four years as Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman start to approach his career innings total.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 50.0%

14. Andruw Jones (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (33.9% in 2021)

• Braves (1996-’07), Dodgers (’08), Rangers (’09), White Sox (’10), Yankees (2011-12)
• Career: .254 BA, 434 HR, 1,289 RBI, 111 OPS+, 62.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove Award winner

On the surface, a center fielder with 10 Gold Gloves and over 400 home runs should be a Hall of Famer, right? Some people think so but not all of us. However, it looks like he has enough of a constituency (one that is growing) to stay on the ballot for his full 10 years. Jones is currently at an impressive 49.7% on the Thibodaux tracker, a vast improvement over his 33.9% final tally in 2021.

Jones essentially had two careers, one in which he was a productive power hitter and a superb defensive center fielder for the Atlanta Braves. Then, after signing a free-agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he put on weight and instantly became a below-average hitter and fielder. Within two years of winning his final Gold Glove with the Braves, Jones was a platoon designated hitter for the Texas Rangers.

• 1996-2007: 61.0 WAR (4th behind Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones)
• 2008-2012: 1.7 WAR (tied for 354th in MLB)

One of my biggest beefs about the Andruw Jones Hall of Fame case is that you have to fully believe in his off-the-charts defensive metrics. As Bill James has noted, the metrics say that he was twice as good defensively as Willie Mays. Still, from everything I’ve read from players and writers who saw him play more than I did, he was a truly great defensive player.

Also, he was pretty terrible in those final five seasons. Spink Award winner Jayson Stark noted recently that Jones had fewer Wins Above Replacement in his 30’s than any outfielder currently enshrined in Cooperstown.

For my reasons why I don’t think Jones deserves a plaque in the Hall of Fame, I invite you to take a look. Regardless of my feelings (which are softening as the years go by and I read others’ arguments in favor), Jones does have momentum. When players increase their vote share every year as Jones has, eventual induction is inevitable.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 49.5%

15. Bobby Abreu – RF (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (8.7% in 2021)

• Astros (1996-97), Phillies (1998-2006), Yankees (2006-08), Angels (2009-2012), Dodgers (2012), Mets (2014)
• Career: .291 BA, .395 OBP, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI, 2,470 Hits, 400 SB, 128 OPS+, 60.2 WAR
• Career: 1,476 walks (20th most in Major League Baseball history)
• 2-time All-Star, 2004 Silver Slugger, 2005 Gold Glove Award winner

Bobby Abreu is on the BBWAA ballot for the third time in 2021 and is the ultimate sneaky-good candidate. Abreu had power and surprising speed for a big man, listed at 220 pounds on his Baseball-Reference profile.

Abreu was durable; he’s the only player other than Willie Mays in the history of baseball to play in 150 or more games for 13 consecutive seasons (with the caveat that there are others who would have accomplished that feat if not for player strikes).

Abreu is also one of 14 players to achieve six different seasons with 100 walks and 100 runs scored. The other 13 are all in the Hall of Fame except for Barry Bonds.

Finally, Abreu is of 7 players with at least 250 HR and 350 SB, with Bonds, Derek Jeter, Rickey Henderson, Craig Biggio, Joe Morgan, and Bobby Bonds, Barry’s father.

All of those “clubs” in which Abreu is a member give him a legitimate case for the Hall but, in fairness, he’s the weakest member of the groups in which I’ve listed him.

I’m on the fence about whether he crosses the bar and, clearly, most members of the BBWAA think that he doesn’t. Abreu is tracking at barely above 10% of the vote, putting him safely above the 5% required to remain on future ballots but at a level that does not portend a massive surge of support in the upcoming years.

For more on Abreu, click here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 11.3%

16. Jimmy Rollins (SS) (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Phillies (2000-14), Dodgers (2015), White Sox (2016)
• Career: .264 BA, 231 HR, 936 RBI, 2,455 Hits
• Career: 470 SB, 105 CS (81.7%)
• Career: 95 OPS+, 47.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 2007 N.L. MVP (.296 BA, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 20 triples, 139 Runs, 41 SB)
• 3-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner

For those who believe in WAR, Jimmy Rollins seems like a weak candidate, based on his 47.6 WAR. That low WAR is based on the fact that he only hit .264 in his career with a .324 OBP, resulting in a 95 OPS+. Forgetting that for a moment, Rollins has an otherwise sneaky-strong case. As a player who combined extra-base power with speed, he’s the only shortstop in the history of baseball to hit 200 home runs, leg out 100 triples, hit over 500 doubles, and steal at least 400 bases.

What I like especially about Rollins is that the guy was a winner and he stayed on the field. Rollins played in 137 games or more in 14 of his 17 MLB seasons, with 10 seasons with 150+ games.

The low WAR is worrisome but, 22 years into the 21st century, Rollins has the second-highest WAR for shortstops for the century, barely behind Derek Jeter. There are a lot of active shortstops who seem like they’ll surpass him but there are chinks in the armor for all of them. Rollins is doing well enough on the Thibodaux tracker that he should last on the BBWAA ballot for several years. If we get to 2025 and he still looks like the second-best shortstop in the century, then I might argue that Rollins has a “best for his era” case.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 10.8%

17. Mark Buehrle – SP (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (11.0% in 2021)

• White Sox (2000-11), Marlins (2012), Blue Jays (2013-15)
• Career: 214-160 (.572 WL%), 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+, 60.0 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 2-0, 1 Save, 3.47 ERA in 23.1 IP in 2005 postseason (White Sox won World Series)
• Pitched a no-hitter in 2007 and a perfect game in 2009

Mark Buehrle was the kind of pitcher who would make an older fan remind you of baseball of a bygone era. He pitched to contact, and he worked fast. He was also unusually durable, authoring 14 straight seasons of at least 200 innings pitched.

As I explain here, if he had not chosen to retire at the age of 36, he might have put up numbers that would have made him a 21st-century version of Don Sutton. In 2021, Buehrle got a significant amount of support from Chicago sportswriters.

Based on the current tracker numbers, Buehrle is in danger of falling off the 2023 ballot. That would be a shame. As the years pass and starting pitchers put up fewer and fewer innings, his record of durability, 214 wins, and 3,283.1 career innings may look better and better.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 5.2%

18. Tim Hudson – SP (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (5.2% in 2021)

• Athletics (1999-2004), Braves (2005-13), Giants (2014-15)
• Career: 222-133 (.625 WL%), 3.49 ERA, 120 ERA+, 56.5 WAR
• 4-time All-Star
• 4 times in the top 6 of Cy Young voting (runner-up in 2000)

Tim Hudson pitched like a potential Hall of Famer early in his career and his final numbers are quite good. As with Buehrle, as the years pass he may look better and better as a candidate. But, right now, he’s tracking at a dangerously low 2.7%, which would put him below the 5% required to remain on future ballots. Given that he barely cleared the 5% bar a year ago, I think it’s more likely than not that Huddy will not be on the 2023 ballot.

For more on the pros and cons of Hudson’s case, please click here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 2.6%

Players That I Do Not Consider Worthy of the Hall of Fame

On this list of players that I doubt I would ever support for a plaque in Cooperstown, I’m including any player who has gotten at least two votes for the Hall as reported by Thibodaux’s tracker (plus I added Mark Teixeira because his career WAR was above 50).

Omar Vizquel – SS (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (49.1% in 2021)

• Mariners (1989-93), Indians (1994-2004), Giants (2005-08), Rangers (2009), White Sox (2010-11), Blue Jays (2012)
• Career: .272 BA, 80 HR, 951 RBI, 2,877 Hits, 82 OPS+, 45.6 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 11-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Highest fielding % of all-time for shortstops (min. 1,000 games)

No player in the history of the BBWAA voting has seen their voting support evaporate more than Omar Vizquel’s. Vizquel got 52.6% of the vote in 2020, his 3rd year on the ballot. He seemed on a glide path to eventually make it to the Hall of Fame. However, in the past 13 months, there have been two troubling revelations about his personal life, a domestic violence allegation by his ex-wife and a sexual harassment allegation by a former autistic batboy that is lurid and disgusting. As a result, voters are leaving him in droves. So far, 46 writers have flipped from “yes” in 2021 to “no” in 2022. That’s a record of negative vote flipping in the modern history of the Hall of Fame voting (since 1966).

On the field, some people thought that Omar Vizquel was the second coming of Ozzie Smith. I don’t. He was an excellent fielder but all of the advanced metrics say that he wasn’t nearly as good as the 11 Gold Gloves indicate. In his 24-year career, only once did Vizquel receive even one MVP vote. Please click here for more details on why I always felt that Omar was not worthy of the Hall of Fame.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 10.8%

Tim Lincecum (SP) (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Giants (2007-15), Angels (2016)
• Career: 110-89 (.553), 3.74 ERA
• Career: 104 ERA+, 19.9 WAR
• Two-time Cy Young Award Winner (2008 & ’09)
• Led the N.L. in strikeouts for three straight seasons (2008-10)
• 4-time All-Star

When you win the Cy Young Award twice in your first three seasons in Major League Baseball, people usually start dreaming about a plaque in Cooperstown. The 5’11”, 170-pound Tim Lincecum had a contorted delivery, one designed for maximum efficiency. Given that he always looked like an injury waiting to happen, I’m sure I wasn’t alone in having felt at the time that his success was too good to last.

Lincecum remained effective in the first two years after his two Cy Youngs (finishing 10th and 6th in the 2010 and 2011 voting) but he regressed significantly in 2012, going 10-15 with a 5.18 ERA. It didn’t get much better in the years that followed. The Freak posted a 4.85 ERA from 2013-16.

Lincecum would not have even qualified for the BBWAA ballot if not for the 38.1 innings he tossed for the Angels in 2016 (2-6, 9.16 ERA). It was his 10th MLB campaign, the minimum amount needed to qualify for the ballot.

Still, some people believe in his candidacy, despite only really having two great years (the Cy Young Years). He’s got 6 “yes” votes, which is the fourth-highest total among first-time candidates.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 3.1%

Joe Nathan (RP) (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Giants (1999-03), Twins (2004-11), Rangers (2012-13), Tigers (2014-15), Cubs (2016), Giants (2016)
• Career: 64-34 (.653), 2.87 ERA
• Career: 377 Saves, 46 Blown Saves (89.1%)
• Career: 151 ERA+, 26.4 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• Finished in the top 5 of the A.L. Cy Young voting twice

For ten years (from 2004-13), Joe Nathan was the second-best relief pitcher in Major League Baseball, behind only the great Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera. For relievers with at least 500 IP, Nathan was second (to Rivera) in Saves, ERA, WHIP, and WAR.

Nathan’s problem as a candidate for Cooperstown is that he only pitched 923.1 innings in his career. He’s essentially got the Billy Wagner case but all of his numbers are short of Wagner’s. I go into the problems with Nathan’s case in much more detail here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 2.1%

Torii Hunter – OF (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (9.5% in 2021)

• Twins (1997-2007, 2015), Angels (2008-12), Tigers (2013-14)
• Career: .277 BA, 353 HR, 1,391 RBI, 2,452 Hits, 110 OPS+, 50.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 9-time Gold Glove Award Winner

Torii Hunter was fun to watch. He was one of his generation’s most prolific “thieves.” I’m not talking about his stolen base prowess (he stole 199 bases but was caught 99 times). I’m talking about his propensity to rob opposing batters of home runs by climbing or leaping over the outfield wall (hence his nickname “Spider-Man”).

As a center fielder, his 353 HR and 9 Gold Gloves present a similar case to Andruw Jones’ but, ultimately he falls short, as I explain here. Hunter is currently tracking at well below 5% of the early reported votes, putting him in significant danger of being purged from future BBWAA ballots.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 1.5%

Ryan Howard (1B) (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Phillies (2004-16)
• Career: .258 BA, 382 HR, 1,194 RBI, 1,475 Hits
• Career: 125 OPS+, 14.7 WAR
• 2005 N.L. Rookie of the Year (.288 BA, 22 HR, 63 RBI)
• 2006 N.L. MVP (.313/.425/.659, 58 HR, 149 RBI, 167 OPS+, 5.2 WAR)
• Four straight seasons with at least 45 HR and 135 RBI (2006-09)
• 3-time All-Star, 2006 Silver Slugger

Ryan Howard’s career started late (at age 24) and ended early (age 36), resulting in career numbers far short of the standards one expects from a defensively challenged first baseman.

From 2006-09, Howard averaged 50 HR with 143 RBI. His 198 homers during those years were far above the player with the second most (Albert Pujols with 165). Similarly, his 572 RBI was vastly more than Pujols’ 491. There are only three players (including Howard) in the history of baseball to hit over 45 home runs and drive in 135 runs for four consecutive seasons. The others are Babe Ruth and Sammy Sosa.

On the negative side, Howard also averaged 191 strikeouts per season during those four campaigns. At a time where offense reigned supreme in the game, his 145 OPS+ from 2006-09 was just the 7th best in the majors.

Those four seasons were fantastic for Howard but his overall record is severely lacking as a Hall of Fame candidate.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 1.5%

Mark Teixeira (1B) (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Rangers (2003-07), Braves (2007-08), Angels (2008), Yankees (2009-16)
• Career: .268 BA, 409 HR, 1,298 RBI, 1,862 Hits
• Career: 126 OPS+, 50.6 WAR
• 3-time All-Star
• 5-time Gold Glove Award Winner, 3-time Silver Slugger

Mark Teixeira had an excellent career but not one that merits induction into the Hall of Fame. There have been 64 first basemen to debut in the LCS era (1969 and beyond) who accumulated at least 5,000 plate appearances in their career:

• 12 of the 64 hit more than Tex’s 409 home runs (including Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, and Paul Konerko)
• 15 drove in more than the switch-hitting first sacker’s 1,298 runs (including Delgado, Giambi, Konerko, and Andres Galarraga)
• His 126 OPS+ is just the 27th best. He’s behind many non-Hall of Famers; the list of those who did better includes Kent Hrbek, Adrian Gonzalez, and Alvin Davis

Teixeira’s WAR is higher than most of those other names due to superior defense, but it’s not enough to make a Hall of Fame case.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 0.5%

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