Cooperstown Cred 2023 Virtual Ballot

On Tuesday at 6:00p ET, live on the MLB Network and mlb.com, Josh Rawitch, the President of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, will announce the results of the 2022 Hall of Fame voting from the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America). Based on the early reported voting (tallied on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker), there will be no more than two new inductees to Cooperstown and it’s possible (likely, even) that there won’t be any.

If nobody is elected on Tuesday, Fred McGriff will be on stage by himself this summer as the lone member of the Hall’s Class of 2023. The Crime Dog was a unanimous selection by the Contemporary Baseball Committee last December. On a ballot that included Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro, Curt Schilling, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and Albert Belle, McGriff was the only player to get at least 75% of the votes from the 16-member committee. The committee firmly rejected the players linked to Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs), conferring less than four votes each to Bonds, Clemens, and Palmeiro.

With 180 ballots reported (out of an estimated 396), Scott Rolen and Todd Helton are both polling at over the 75% minimum required to get a plaque in the Hall. From those 180 votes, Helton has 79.4%, Rolen 78.9%. However, in the recent history of Thibodaux’s vote tracking, most players’ final results wind up several points below their pre-results tracking numbers. This is because voters who keep their ballot selection private are typically stingier about how they select for the Hall.

One year ago, on the date of the results announcement, Rolen had 71.2% support in the pre-election tracking but finished with just 63.2%, thanks to a weak 34.2% tally among the writers who never revealed their selections. Meanwhile, Helton was at 57.1% in the pre-election tracking but finished with 52.0% thanks to just 41.1% from the private ballots.

If the writers fail to reach a 75% consensus with any candidate, it will be the BBWAA’s second shutout in three years. Two years ago (in 2021), nobody was elected, with Schilling the top vote-getter at 71.1%. A year ago, only one player (David Ortiz) surpassed the 75% threshold, earning 77.9% of the vote.

In 2013, the first year of BBWAA eligibility of Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, and Craig Biggio, nobody made it to 75%, resulting in the BBWAA’s first shutout since 1996. From 2014-20, however, the BBWAA went on an electing spree, putting 22 players into the Hall in that seven-year span.

If only one player were to make it in a three-year span, it would be the biggest BBWAA drought since 1957-61, when nobody was elected (with the significant caveat that the BBWAA didn’t hold votes in ’57, ’59, or ’61).

What makes the 2023 ballot most notably different from the previous ten versions is that Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, and Schilling aren’t on it. With those four players having exhausted their ten years of BBWAA ballot eligibility, there’s a lot more “space” for other candidates on the ballot. The BBWAA voters are limited to making a maximum of 10 selections on their ballots.

As a non-voter but a prolific writer about Hall of Fame candidates, I have felt that there were more than 10 worthy Hall of Famers on every ballot from 2013-22. This year, I picked ten names, the only ten that I feel are deserving of plaques in Cooperstown.

With that extra ballot space, a lot of players are getting a lot of “yes” votes from writers who did not check their names in 2022. Helton in particular has made significant gains, earning 31 more votes from the ballots of the returning writers who have revealed their ballots. Several other players have made gains of 20 or more votes, including Billy Wagner, Jeff Kent (in his 10th and final year on the ballot), Gary Sheffield, and Andruw Jones.

Meanwhile, the players most tainted by scandal (Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and Omar Vizquel) are in voting quicksand. A-Rod and Manny are scandal-plagued because of their PED suspensions. As for Vizquel, he’s had troubling domestic battery and sexual harassment allegations that have torpedoed his chances at Cooperstown.

Among the weak crop of first-time candidates, only Carlos Beltran appears destined for a plaque in Cooperstown, although it won’t happen this year. Beltran, whose support is significantly softened by his role in the 2017 Houston Astros cheating scandal, is currently tracking at 55.6%. In the history of the BBWAA voting, every candidate who has earned at least 50% of the vote on the first ballot winds up with a plaque in Cooperstown eventually. Francisco Rodriguez is the only other first-time candidate who will return to the ballot in 2024.

Torii Hunter, in his third year on the ballot, appears to be in danger of not earning the minimum of 5% to appear on future ballots, although it should be noted that he was “underwater” a year ago as well and stayed over 5% thanks to getting nearly 10% of the vote from private ballots and public ballots revealed post-election.

Here are the current tracking results, according to Thibodaux and his ace tracker team of Anthony Calamis, Adam Dore, and John Devino.

WP Table Builder

Note: this graphic will be updated periodically up until the moment of the announcement at 6p ET on Tuesday. The text of the article was published at 10:00a on Monday, 1/23. Because the graphic is being updated, the numbers may not exactly match the text in the article.

Not shown on this graphic are the 12 other first-time candidates: R.A. Dickey (one vote so far), Huston Street (also with one), Matt Cain, Jacoby Ellsbury, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Jhonny Peralta, Jered Weaver, Jayson Werth, J.J. Hardy, Bronson Arroyo, and Andre Ethier; the latter ten players have yet to get a single vote from the first 180 reported.

Anyway, with the preamble complete, here are my ten selections for my 2023 virtual ballot. I’ve listed them in order of preference.

1. Scott Rolen – 3B (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (63.2% in 2022)

• Phillies (1996-2002), Cardinals (2002-07), Blue Jays (2008-09), Reds (2009-12)
• Career: .281 BA, 316 HR, 1,287 RBI
• Career: 122 OPS+, 70.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 7-time All-Star, 8-time Gold Glove Winner, 2002 N.L. Silver Slugger

As indicated earlier, Scott Rolen is one of the two most likely 2023 BBWAA candidates to join Fred McGriff on stage in Cooperstown this summer. I’ve got him on the top of my list because, in my opinion, he is one of the two best players on the ballot not named Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez, who have, shall we say, “issues.”

As it was with Larry Walker (who was elected to the Hall three years ago), Rolen is a WAR candidate (as I write about in more detail here). Both have a WAR over 70 and both are over that number based on superior defensive metrics, which are backed by Gold Glove hardware.

At 6’4″, 245 pounds, Rolen was a third baseman in the body of a linebacker. He had extraordinary reflexes and a cannon for an arm. He combined brilliant defense with a strong bat, one that produced a 122 career OPS+ and resulted in 90 or more RBI in seven different campaigns.

Rolen did very poorly on his first two ballots in 2018 and 2019 (10% and 17%) because those ballots were jam-packed with talent. Eight Hall of Famers were elected in those two years while Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling were also gobbling up votes.

With the ballot backlog having dissipated in recent years, Rolen has been surging in the last three voting cycles, climbing to 35.3% in 2020, 52.9% in 2021, and 63.2% in 2022. The reason that Rolen only has a net 11 “flips” this year (compared to 30 flips for Helton) is that Rolen had already banked the votes of those sympathetic to analytics-friendly candidates.

It’s not surprising that Rolen was out in front of other sabermetric-friendly candidates in the last few cycles. Besides the high WAR, there is the combination of a power bat and Gold Glove awards. First of all, there are only three third sackers in baseball history with more Gold Gloves, Brooks Robinson. Mike Schmidt, and Nolan Arenado. The “club” of third basemen with 300+ home runs and 8 Gold Gloves is a club with two members, Schmidt and Rolen. Schmidt, incidentally, once told The Athletic’s Jayson Stark that Rolen was better than him defensively. 

(Note: Arenado, with 299 home runs and 10 Gold Gloves, will join that exclusive club early this season).

Anyway, Rolen will need to gain a lot of converts among the writers yet to reveal their ballots publicly in order to cross the 75% threshold. It’s more likely that he’ll fall short, which will make for an interesting ballot next year. Another third baseman (Adrian Beltre), with his 93.5 WAR, 477 HR, and 3,166 Hits, will join the BBWAA ballot.

Will the reluctant Rolen voters decide to check both names in 2024 or will they look at Beltre as an obvious Hall of Famer and Rolen as lacking? BBWAA voting history indicates that when a player not tainted by scandal reaches 70% of the vote, they make it to over 75% the following year. If Rolen barely falls short this year, he’ll probably make it in 2024 but that’s not certain.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 78.9%

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2. Carlos Beltran — CF (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Royals (1998-2004), Astros (2004), Mets (2005-11), Giants (2011), Cardinals (2012-13), Yankees (2014-16), Rangers (2016), Astros (2017)
• Career: .279 BA, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 runs, 2,725 hits, 312 SB
• Career: 119 OPS+, 70.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 4th most HR all-time for center fielders (behind Mays, Griffey, Mantle) (minimum 50% games played in CF)
• 4th most RBI all-time for center fielders (behind Cobb, Mays, Griffey)
• 4th most HR all-time for switch-hitters (behind Mantle, Murray, and Chipper Jones)
• 3rd most RBI all-time for switch-hitters (behind Murray, and Jones)
• 9-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove winner
• Career post-season: .307 BA, .412 OBP, .609 SLG, 16 HR, 42 RBI in 256 PA
• 5th highest post-season OPS (1.021) in baseball history (min. 150 PA) (Ruth, Gehrig, Pujols, Brett)

If you just look at the long list of accomplishments outlined above, it’s pretty clear that Carlos Beltran has a resume that is worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown. When it comes to the big power statistics (HR and RBI), he’s in some very impressive company as one of the best center fielders and switch-hitters of all time.

Beltran could do it all as the ultimate five-tool player. He could hit (119 career OPS+), hit with power (435 HR), run (312 career steals), field (3 Gold Gloves), and throw (top 5 in outfield assists five times in his career). Besides having game-changing speed, Beltran stole bases with maximum efficiency. His career 86.4% stolen base success rate is the best in Major League Baseball history for players with at least 250 steals.

Despite this, Beltran is not going to make it into the Hall on his first time on the ballot. He’s paying a significant penalty with the writers for his role in the Astros sign-stealing scandal in 2017. That is the season in which Beltran finally won a World Series championship. Sadly, that title will be forever tainted by the scandal.

Personally, I think Beltran has paid the price already. He lost a plumb job as the manager of the New York Mets because of his role in the scandal. Noting that the 2017 Astros manager A.J. Hinch and bench coach Alex Cora are managing in the majors today, Bob Nightengale put it this way in USA Today: “here we are, six years later, and the only man still being penalized by the scandal is Beltran. It is not only brutally unfair but egregiously cruel. Enough already.”

It won’t happen this year but I’m confident that Beltran will make it into Cooperstown via the BBWAA in the next couple of years.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 55.6%

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3. Jeff Kent – 2B (10th year on the BBWAA ballot) (32.7% in 2022)

• Blue Jays (1992), Mets (1992-96), Indians (’96), Giants (1997-2002), Astros (2003-04), Dodgers (2005-08)
• Career: .290 BA, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 2,461 Hits
• Career: 123 OPS+, 55.5 WAR
• 377 home runs (most all-time for 2B)
• 2000 NL MVP (.334 BA, 33 HR, 125 RBI)
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger

I have always been simultaneously baffled that Jeff Kent has gotten no respect from the BBWAA over the last nine years while also understanding why he hasn’t.

Why baffled? Kent has the most home runs all-time for a second baseman. He has the third-most RBI (behind Hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby and Nap Lajoie). His .500 career slugging percentage is second-best only to Hornsby. His 560 doubles are fifth-best to Craig Biggio, Lajoie, Charlie Gehringer (all Hall of Famers), and the PED-tainted Robinson Cano. In “RBat” (the Runs Above Average Batting component of WAR), he’s 6th, behind Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Lajoie, Joe Morgan, and Gehringer. Again, all in the Hall of Fame.

Why do I understand it? Year after year, it’s been a packed ballot, baby! I didn’t have room for Kent in my virtual top 10 until a few years ago.

The lack of support for Kent is due to the fact that his WAR is relatively low, thanks to a high double-play rate and poor defensive metrics. Also, Kent was a late bloomer, and Hall of Famer players usually imprint themselves into the brains of the BBWAA members early in their careers. Kent didn’t become a star until he was 29 when Giants manager Dusty Baker had the faith to put his new second baseman into the middle of the order.

Having said that, Kent’s not going to make it via the BBWAA. His current vote support (50.6%), while better than in previous years, is not nearly close enough to 75%. I do think, however, that he will fare well with the Eras Committee. The “second chance” committees often keep it really simple. Last month, they saw McGriff’s 493 career home runs from a clean player and unanimously elected him to the Hall. “Most HR ever for a 2nd baseman” might be all he needs to get that plaque.

For more on why I feel Kent belongs in the Hall of Fame, please click here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 50.6%

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4. Todd Helton – 1B (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (52.0% in 2022)

• Colorado Rockies (1997-2013)
• Career: .316 BA, 369, 1,406 RBI
• Career: 2,519 Hits, 133 OPS+, 61.8 WAR
• 592 career doubles (20th most in MLB history)
• 5-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove, 4-time Silver Slugger

I will admit that a couple of years ago when I was deciding for the first time whether Todd Helton belonged in the Hall of Fame or not, it made my brain hurt a little bit. This is thanks to him having played all of the home games in his career at Coors Field.

The left-handed hitting Helton was a doubles machine and a brilliant fielder. As a former college quarterback (at the University of Tennesee, starting ahead of Peyton Manning), Helton brought a right fielder’s arm to first base. He had exceptional range to his right, resulting in the third most assists and double plays turned for any first baseman in MLB history.

In Helton’s best season (2000), he slashed .372/.463/.698 with 42 HR, 59 doubles, 147 RBI, and 216 Hits. He and Lou Gehrig are the only players in baseball history to post a slash line above .350/.450/.550 with over 200 hits, over 40 HR, and over 50 doubles.

Sabermetric pioneer Bill James thinks Todd Helton is a Hall of Famer, which is usually good enough for me. This is what James wrote in the 2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook:

“Helton’s numbers… are SO good that nobody knows what to do with them. Helton played not only in a very high-run era, but also in a hitter’s paradise. People know intuitively that his numbers are misleading and you need to let some of the air out of them, but they don’t know intuitively how much. 

But if you will pardon my saying, that’s what guys like me are good for. Guys like Tom Tango, John Dewan, Sean Forman and myself… we know how to handle THAT problem. We normalize everything for context all of the time.

Even if you adjust for the context, Todd Helton was a Hall of Famer.”

— Bill James (2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook)

On Baseball-Reference, Helton’s top two “most similar” players based on “Similarity Scores” (a James invention) are Jeff Bagwell and Edgar Martinez. That’s pretty great company although, remember, those three players didn’t spend half of their careers in Colorado.

Again, Bill James is somebody that I revere. He says that he’s accounted for the “Coors effect” with respect to Helton’s statistics. I took a deep dive into the numbers and reached the same conclusion.

Helton is worthy of the Hall of Fame. Perhaps thanks in part to the election of McGriff last month, more writers are also coming around to his cause. Helton is tracking at 79.4% right now. That gives him an outside chance at getting his name called for the Hall’s Class of 2023. While I feel still that this is an unlikely outcome (the tracker generally overestimates a player’s final support), it’s a remarkable state of affairs for a player who got just 16.5% in his first turn on the ballot in 2019.

Given the fact that he has 5 years left on the BBWAA ballot after this year, Helton’s going to make it into the Hall of Fame.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 79.4%

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5. Gary Sheffield – OF (9th year on the BBWAA ballot) (40.6% in 2022)

• Brewers (1988-91), Padres (1992-93), Marlins (1993-98), Dodgers (1998-2001), Braves (2002-03), Yankees (2004-06), Tigers (2007-08), Mets (2009)
• Career: .292 BA, 509 HR, 1676 RBI, 2,689 Hits
• Career: 140 OPS+, 60.5 WAR
• 9-time All-Star, 5-time Silver Slugger

Thanks to crowded ballots and an admitted use of PEDs, Gary Sheffield never got more than 14% of the Hall of Fame vote in his first five years on the ballot (he’s risen in the years since then to 40.6% a year ago). As a PED user, what makes Sheffield different from most of the others is that he admitted it right away and says he didn’t know that the “cream” he was using was a steroid. He was also an early advocate for drug testing in the sport. Clearly, many writers have decided to give him a pass for that reason.

After filling out in his early 20s, Sheffield’s body type looked consistently rock solid but not outrageously so. I am inclined to believe that he was a one-time “oops” user.

What we know for sure is that he was a fantastic and highly-feared hitter. His overall career WAR is destroyed by horrible defensive metrics. The only hitters with a higher offensive WAR (oWAR) than Sheffield’s 80.8 who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Bonds, A-Rod, Pujols, Pete Rose, Mike Trout, and Manny Ramirez.

Just using oWAR, Sheffield is ahead of Frank Thomas, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Thome, Reggie Jackson, Jeff Bagwell, Dave Winfield, Willie McCovey, and Harmon Killebrew. Regardless of what he did or didn’t do in the field, he’s a Hall of Famer to me.

But he’s not going to make it with the BBWAA. With only one year left on the ballot after this year and the PED taint, he will not be able to climb over 75%. And, given that the Eras Committee thoroughly rejected Bonds, Clemens, and Rafael Palmeiro last month, it will probably be decades before Sheff makes it to Cooperstown (if ever).

For more on Sheffield’s case, click here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 63.3%

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6. Andy Pettitte – SP (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (10.7% in 2022)

• Yankees (1995-2003, ’07-’13), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 256-153 (.626 WL%), 3.85 ERA
• Career: 117 ERA+, 60.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Career postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA in 44 starts (won 5 championships)
• 3-time All-Star

Andy Pettitte is a guy who looked like a future Hall of Famer when watching him in the first three seasons of his career. In his sophomore campaign (1996), he was a 21-game winner (finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting) and a member of the World Champion New York Yankees. In 1997 the tall left-hander went 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA (good enough for a 156 OPS+ and 8.4 WAR).

The fact is, however, after 1997, Pettitte only had one season in which he was in the top 30 of all starting pitchers in WAR. That one season was 2005, with the Astros, when he went 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA (177 ERA+, 6.8 WAR). The timing of that great campaign was perfect; he helped Houston make the playoffs (barely) as the Wild Card team. The Astros subsequently won their first-ever pennant.

Because the Yankees and Astros made the playoffs 14 times in his 18 MLB campaigns, Pettitte is the all-time postseason leader in games started (44) and thus, also leads in wins (19) and innings (276.2). His playoff ERA (3.81) mirrors almost precisely his regular-season ERA (3.85).

If you put a gun to my head and made me the ultimate arbiter of Pettitte’s Cooperstown fate, I’d say “yes” but I’m not crazy about his case. Not being in the top 30 in the majors in WAR for most of one’s career is not something that screams “Hall of Fame.”

If Pettitte had spent 16 years of his career with the Kansas City Royals instead of the New York Yankees, he wouldn’t be anywhere near the Hall of Fame. A “yes” for Pettitte is an acknowledgment that who gets into Cooperstown isn’t always fair and that playing for great teams helps. Anyway, Pettitte is still not in the top 10 for most of the voting members of the BBWAA and continues to do poorly in the voting.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 17.2%

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7. Bobby Abreu – RF (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (8.6% in 2022)

• Astros (1996-97), Phillies (1998-2006), Yankees (2006-08), Angels (2009-2012), Dodgers (2012), Mets (2014)
• Career: .291 BA, .395 OBP, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI, 2,470 Hits, 400 SB, 128 OPS+, 60.2 WAR
• Career: 1,476 walks (20th most in Major League Baseball history)
• 2-time All-Star, 2004 Silver Slugger, 2005 Gold Glove Award winner

Bobby Abreu is on the BBWAA ballot for the third time in 2022 and is the ultimate sneaky-good candidate. Abreu had power and surprising speed for a big man, listed at 220 pounds on his Baseball-Reference profile.

Abreu was durable; he’s the only player other than Willie Mays in the history of baseball to play in 150 or more games for 13 consecutive seasons (with the caveat that there are others who would have accomplished that feat if not for player strikes).

Abreu is also one of 14 players to achieve six different seasons with 100 walks and 100 runs scored. The other 13 are all in the Hall of Fame except for Barry Bonds. Finally, Abreu is of 7 players with at least 250 HR and 350 SB, with Bonds, Derek Jeter, Rickey Henderson, Craig Biggio, Joe Morgan, and Bobby Bonds, Barry’s father.

All of those “clubs” in which Abreu is a member give him a legitimate case for the Hall but, in fairness, he’s the weakest member of the groups in which I’ve listed him (with the exception of Bobby Bonds).

For reasons that I articulate in detail here, I am now off the fence about whether he crosses the bar and, clearly, although most members of the BBWAA think that he doesn’t. Abreu is tracking at nearly 20% of the vote, putting him safely above the 5% required to remain on future ballots but at a level that does not portend a massive surge of support in the upcoming years.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 18.9%

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8. Mark Buehrle – SP (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (5.8% in 2022)

• White Sox (2000-11), Marlins (2012), Blue Jays (2013-15)
• Career: 214-160 (.572 WL%), 3.81 ERA
• 117 ERA+, 60.0 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 2-0, 1 Save, 3.47 ERA in 23.1 IP in 2005 postseason (White Sox won World Series)
• Pitched a no-hitter in 2007 and a perfect game in 2009

Mark Buehrle was the kind of pitcher who would make an older fan remind you of baseball of a bygone era. He pitched to contact, and he worked fast. Like Abreu, he was also unusually durable, authoring 14 straight seasons of at least 200 innings pitched.

If the big left-hander had not chosen to retire at the age of 36, he might have put up numbers that would have made him a 21st-century version of Don Sutton.

I decided to put Buehrle on my virtual ballot this year for reasons that I explain fully here. But the short version is this: starting pitchers are going to need to be evaluated differently for 21st-century pitchers than they were for the hurlers of the 20th century. The players on all teams in Major League Baseball are of the mindset today to grind out long at bats and boost their opponents’ pitch counts.

200-inning seasons are becoming a rarity. Buehrle tossed 200 innings in 14 consecutive seasons. In the 21st century, only Justin Verlander (12 seasons) and James Shields (10) have logged as many as 10 campaigns with 200+ IP. In the 2021 and 2022 seasons, a grand total of 11 pitchers managed to reach 200 innings, with Sandy Alcantara the only one to do it in both campaigns.

Based on the current tracker numbers, Buehrle is not currently in danger of falling off the 2023 ballot, which is a good thing. As the years pass and starting pitchers put up fewer and fewer innings, his record of durability, 214 wins, and 3,283.1 career innings will look better and better.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 10.0%

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Finally, for my final two slots, I offer the best two players on the ballot but a pair of sluggers who will never make it into the Hall because of their suspensions for PED usage. I’ve put them at the bottom because I consider their Hall of Fame chances to now be practically nil.

9. Alex Rodriguez (SS/3B) (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (34.3% in 2022)

• Mariners (1994-2000), Rangers (2001-03), Yankees (2004-2016)
• Career: .295 BA, .696 HR, 2,086 RBI, 3,115 Hits
• Career: 140 OPS+, 117.5 WAR
• One of 3 players with 650 HR, 2000 RBI, and 3000 Hits (Aaron, Pujols)
• 4th on all-time lists for HR and RBI
• 3-time American League MVP (2003, ’05, ’07), with three other top 3 finishes
• 14-time All-Star
• 2-time Gold Glove Winner, 10-time Silver Slugger

Alex Rodriguez admitted using PEDs with the Rangers in 2001-03 and was suspended by MLB for a year due to the biogenesis scandal. There are a lot of writers who, when it comes to PEDs, draw a line between the “no-testing” era before 2005 and the years since then, when all players have been tested frequently. It’s why David Ortiz made it into the Hall of Fame and A-Rod will not. Ortiz was never suspended, while Rodriguez missed the entire 2014 season.

As a player, Rodriguez was an all-time great. He paid his proverbial sentence (“did his time”) by missing an entire season. He’s a player in good standing in Major League Baseball. We have no idea how many players used PEDs but we do know that A-Rod was one of the very best players in the game. Given that there are almost certainly PED users already in the Hall of Fame, I’m tepidly comfortable with A-Rod joining them with a plaque in Cooperstown.

However, I don’t have a vote. The people who do are, so far, not voting for him in close to the numbers necessary to put A-Rod at 75%. With the Contemporary Baseball Eras Committee having resoundingly rejected Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens last month, it will probably be decades before A-Rod makes it to Cooperstown if he ever does.

For more on A-Rod’s career and the conundrum about his Cooperstown candidacy, please click here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 40.0%

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10. Manny Ramirez  – OF (7th year on the BBWAA ballot) (28.9% in 2022)

• Indians (1993-2000), Red Sox (2001-08), Dodgers (2008-10), White Sox (2010), Rays (2011)
• Career: .312 BA, 555 HR, 1,831 RBI, 2,574 Hits
• Career: 154 OPS+, 69.3 WAR
• 12-time All-Star, 9-time Silver Slugger
• Career postseason: 29 HR, 78 RBI, .937 OPS (his 29 HR are the most in postseason history)

If it were based solely on his performance, of course, Manny Ramirez would be a Hall of Famer. Manny could flat-out hit and hit in the clutch. Besides having the most career postseason home runs in the history of baseball, he has the 3rd most regular-season grand slams (behind Lou Gehrig and A-Rod).

For more on where Manny ranks among the great hitters in baseball history and why I’m forgiving him for his two failed drug tests, I invite you to click here.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 37.2%

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Other Players on the Ballot

I’ve been posting articles on “Cooperstown Cred” since 2017 and wrote about Hall of Fame candidates from 2014-17 on my personal blog. This is the first BBWAA ballot in which I didn’t feel that there were more than 10 worthy candidates. I remain open to the cases for the next three players listed here but, for differing reasons, am not yet in favor.

11. Billy Wagner  – RP (8th year on the BBWAA ballot) (51.0% in 2022)

• Career: 422 Saves (86% success rate), 2.31 ERA, 0.998 WHIP
• Career: 187 ERA+, 27.8 WAR
• 7-time All-Star

Billy Wagner has some key things going for him. His career 2.31 ERA is the second-best in the last 100 years to Rivera (for pitchers with a minimum of 900 innings pitched). Using the same minimum, his 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings are the best in the history of baseball. His career WHIP (walks + hits per 9 innings) is 0.998, second-best in history to Hall of Famer Addie Joss.

So why is Wagner not in the Hall of Fame yet? The problem is the innings, as in only 903 pitched. Rivera threw 1,283.2 (to go with 652 saves). Trevor Hoffman threw 1,089.1 (along with 601 saves). Although the three closers were contemporaries, Wagner was much more of a “clean 9th inning” pitcher than the others (more details in this piece I updated recently).

Here’s a troubling statistic I uncovered through some extensive research after re-posting my full-length piece: in the 81 times Wagner entered a save situation with runners on base, his ERA was 4.23. That mediocre number does not include the 38 out of 119 inherited runners that he allowed to cross home plate. So, including inherited runners, Wagner allowed 78 runners to score (in 83 innings) when he was tasked to be a “fireman” by squelching an existing rally.

Despite my personal misgivings, Wagner is going to make it into the Hall of Fame. There is significant momentum building for the hard-throwing lefty. He got 51.0% of the vote last year after languishing at under 20% in his first four turns with the BBWAA. He’s getting the kind of BBWAA support that means he’ll be elected in the future, either with the writers in 2024 or 2025 or the Eras Committee in December 2028.

Personally, I’d like to see if Wagner’s spectacular rate stats hold up over the next two years as Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen start to approach his career innings total.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 73.3%

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12. Andruw Jones (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (41.1% in 2022)

• Braves (1996-’07), Dodgers (’08), Rangers (’09), White Sox (’10), Yankees (2011-12)
• Career: .254 BA, 434 HR, 1,289 RBI
• Career: 111 OPS+, 62.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove Award winner

On the surface, a center fielder with 10 Gold Gloves and over 400 home runs should be a Hall of Famer, right? Some people think so but not all of us. However, it looks like he has enough of a constituency (one that is growing) to possibly get a Cooperstown plaque in the next few years. Jones is currently at an impressive 68.2% on the Thibodaux tracker, a vast improvement over his 41.1% final tally in 2022.

Jones essentially had two careers, one in which he was a productive power hitter and a superb defensive center fielder for the Atlanta Braves. Then, after signing a free-agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he put on weight and instantly became a below-average hitter and fielder. Within two years of winning his final Gold Glove with the Braves, Jones was a platoon designated hitter for the Texas Rangers.

• 1996-2007: 61.0 WAR (4th behind Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, and Chipper Jones)
• 2008-2012: 1.7 WAR (tied for 354th in MLB)

One of my biggest beefs about the Andruw Jones Hall of Fame case is that you have to fully believe in his off-the-charts defensive metrics. As Bill James has noted, the metrics say that he was twice as good defensively as Willie Mays. Still, from everything I’ve read from players and writers who saw him play more than I did, he was a truly great defensive player.

Also, he was pretty terrible in those final five seasons. Hall of Fame writer Jayson Stark noted recently that Jones had fewer Wins Above Replacement in his 30s than any outfielder currently enshrined in Cooperstown and that his .254 career batting average would be the second-worst for any player in the Hall of Fame (just ahead of the .253 posted by catcher Ray Schalk in the 1920s and 1930s).

For my reasons why I don’t think Jones deserves a plaque in the Hall of Fame, I invite you to take a look. Regardless of my feelings (which are softening as the years go by and I read others’ arguments in favor), Jones does have momentum. When players increase their vote share every year as Jones has, eventual induction is inevitable.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 67.8%

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13. Jimmy Rollins (SS) (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (9.4% in 2022)

• Phillies (2000-14), Dodgers (2015), White Sox (2016)
• Career: .264 BA, 231 HR, 936 RBI, 2,455 Hits
• Career: 470 SB, 105 CS (81.7%)
• Career: 95 OPS+, 47.6 WAR
• 2007 N.L. MVP (.296 BA, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 20 triples, 139 Runs, 41 SB)
• 3-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner

For those who believe in WAR, Jimmy Rollins seems like a weak candidate, based on his 47.6 WAR. That low WAR is based on the fact that he only hit .264 in his career with a .324 OBP, resulting in a 95 OPS+.

Forgetting that for a moment, Rollins has an otherwise sneaky-strong case. As a player who combined extra-base power with speed, he’s the only shortstop in the history of baseball to hit 200 home runs, leg out 100 triples, hit over 500 doubles, and steal at least 400 bases.

What I like especially about Rollins is that the guy was a winner and he stayed on the field. Rollins played in 137 games or more in 14 of his 17 MLB seasons, with 10 seasons with 150+ games.

The low WAR is worrisome but, 22 years into the 21st century, Rollins has the second-highest WAR for shortstops for the century, barely behind Derek Jeter. There are a lot of active shortstops who seem like they’ll surpass him but there are chinks in the armor for all of them. Rollins is doing well enough on the Thibodaux tracker that he should last on the BBWAA ballot for several years. If we get to 2025 and he still looks like the second-best shortstop in the century, then I might argue that Rollins has a “second-best for his era” case.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 12.8%

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The following players are also getting some support on the current BBWAA ballot but I doubt I would ever support them for the Hall.

14. Torii Hunter – CF (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (5.3% in 2022)

• Twins (1997-2007, 2015), Angels (2008-12), Tigers (2013-14)
• Career: .277 BA, 353 HR, 1,391 RBI, 2,452 Hits, 110 OPS+, 50.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 9-time Gold Glove Award Winner

Torii Hunter was fun to watch. He was one of his generation’s most prolific “thieves.” I’m not talking about his stolen base prowess (he stole 199 bases but was caught 99 times). I’m talking about his propensity to rob opposing batters of home runs by climbing or leaping over the outfield wall (hence his nickname “Spider-Man”).

As a center fielder, his 353 HR and 9 Gold Gloves present a similar case to Andruw Jones’ but, ultimately he falls short, as I explain here. Hunter is currently tracking well below 5% of the early reported votes, putting him in danger of being purged from future BBWAA ballots.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 3.3%

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15. Omar Vizquel – SS (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (23.9% in 2021)

• Mariners (1989-93), Indians (1994-2004), Giants (2005-08), Rangers (2009), White Sox (2010-11), Blue Jays (2012)
• Career: .272 BA, 80 HR, 951 RBI, 2,877 Hits
• Career: 82 OPS+, 45.6 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 11-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Highest fielding % of all-time for shortstops (min. 1,000 games)

No player in the history of the BBWAA voting has seen their voting support evaporate more than Omar Vizquel’s. Vizquel got 52.6% of the vote in 2020, his 3rd year on the ballot. He seemed on a glide path to eventually make it to the Hall of Fame.

However, in the past two years, there have been two troubling revelations about his personal life, a domestic violence allegation by his ex-wife and a sexual harassment allegation by a former autistic batboy that is lurid and disgusting. As a result, voters are leaving him in droves. His vote share plummeted from 49.1% in 2021 to 23.9% in 2022, the biggest single-year drop in the modern history of the vote (since 1966).

On the field, some people thought that Omar Vizquel was the second coming of Ozzie Smith. I don’t. He was an excellent fielder but all of the metrics say that he wasn’t nearly as good as the 11 Gold Gloves indicate. In his 24-year career, only once did Vizquel receive even one MVP vote. Please click here for more details on why I always felt that Omar was not worthy of the Hall of Fame.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 8.9%

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16. Francisco Rodriguez — RP (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Angels (2003-08), Mets (2008-11), Brewers (2011-13, ’14-’15), Orioles (2013), Tigers (2016-17)
• Career: 52-53 (.495 WL%), 2.86 ERA
• Career: 437 Saves (4th most all-time), 76 Blown Saves (85% success rate)
• Career: 148 ERA+, 24.2 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• Finished 3rd or 4th in the A.L. Cy Young voting three times with the Angels
• 2008: saved 62 games, the most for a single season in baseball history

If there’s any first-time candidate on the 2023 BBWAA ballot who has a chance at the Hall of Fame eventually besides Carlos Beltran, it’s Francisco Rodriguez. This is for one and only one reason: Rodriguez has the fourth most saves in the history of Major League Baseball, behind Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith.

Personally, I’m not in favor of K-Rod for Cooperstown and it’s clear that the vast majority of the BBWAA is in agreement.

Why am I dismissive of K-Rod’s Hall of Fame candidacy, despite the fact that he saved 15 more games than Billy Wagner, who got 51% of the vote on the 2022 ballot? It’s simple: Wagner was much, much better. Wagner’s career ERA (2.31) is more than a half-run better than K-Rod’s. Wagner had a much lower WHIP (0.998 to 1.155) and, although lacking the flashy nickname, a better strikeout ratio (11.9 K/9 IP compared to K-Rod’s 10.5).

The bottom line is this: Francisco Rodriguez pitched like a future Hall of Famer in Anaheim (202 saves, 2.35 ERA, 189 ERA+) but, for the rest of his career, he was quite ordinary (229 saves, 3.30 ERA, 122 ERA+). Among the 62 pitchers who logged at least 400 innings from 2009-17 (with 80% of appearances in the bullpen), Rodriguez’s 3.30 ERA is just the 24th best.

Current Thibodaux HOF tracker — 8.9%

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That’s it: these are the only 16 players who have a chance at getting more than 5% on the BBWAA ballot. Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.