Cooperstown Cred 2024 Virtual Ballot

On Tuesday at 6:00p ET, live on the MLB Network and mlb.com, Josh Rawitch, the President of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, will announce the results of the 2024 Hall of Fame voting from the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America). Based on the early reported voting (tallied on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame vote tracker), there could be anywhere from one to four new inductees to Cooperstown.

Third baseman Adrian Beltre is a lead-pipe cinch to be a first-ballot inductee into the Hall of Fame, while catcher Joe Mauer (another player on his first ballot) looks more likely than not to make it. It also looks like a 50-50 chance that first baseman Todd Helton, on the ballot for the 6th time, will surpass the 75% needed for a plaque in Cooperstown. There’s also the possibility that reliever Billy Wagner, on the ballot for the 9th time, will make it as well.

The range of possibilities from one to four Hall of Famers represents an unusual amount of suspense for the BBWAA vote in the vote-tracking era. Whoever passes the 75% threshold when the results are announced on Tuesday will join Jim Leyland on stage this July. The longtime manager for the Pirates, Marlins, Rockies, and Tigers was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Era Committee last month.

With 200 ballots reported (out of an estimated 384 total ballots cast), Beltre is polling at 99.1%, Mauer at 83.3%, Helton at 82.3%, and Wagner at 78.1%. However, in the recent history of Thibodaux’s vote tracking, most players’ final results wind up several points below their pre-results tracking numbers. This is because voters who keep their ballot selection private are typically stingier about how they select players for the Hall, which is why the possible range of outcomes is between one and four inductees.

A year ago, Helton was sitting at 78.6% in the tracker when the results were announced but finished with 72.2%, putting him just shy of the Hall of Fame. As for Wagner, he was sitting at 72.3% one year ago and finished at 68.1%. If that trend holds for 2024, Helton will make it, while Wagner will fall just short. As for Mauer, there is no historical trend to observe, but he has a strong “old school” resume (3 batting titles, a .306 career average, and an MVP at a key defensive position).

After a seven-year spree in which the BBWAA elected 22 players to the Hall of Fame, the last three years have been slow, with nobody crossing the 75% mark in 2021, with only one player making it in 2022 (David Ortiz) and one in 2023 (Scott Rolen).

There is one player on the current ballot (Gary Sheffield) who is on the ballot for the 10th and final time. Sheffield, who earned 55.0% of the vote a year ago, is tracking at 74.4%, which represents a significant gain but guarantees that he will fall well short of 75% when the final results are revealed. Sheffield will next have an opportunity for Cooperstown when the Era Committee has its next Contemporary Players Ballot in December 2025.

Other players to watch who are trending towards an eventual Cooperstown plaque are center fielder Andruw Jones (69.8% in his 7th year on the ballot), outfielder Carlos Beltran (66.0% in his second year), and second baseman Chase Utley (39.5% in his first year).

Besides the drama of how many players will make it to Cooperstown this summer, there is also some drama about who will drop off the ballot after this year. The Hall’s rules require that a player get at least 5% of the vote to remain on future ballots. The players on the bubble are pitcher Mark Buehrle (tracking at 7.4% in his third year on the ballot), third baseman David Wright (6.0% on his first ballot), reliever Francisco Rodriguez (6.5% in his second year), and outfielder Torii Hunter (4.7% in his third year).

Here are the current tracking results, according to Thibodaux and his ace tracker team of Anthony Calamis and Adam Dore.

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Note: this graphic will be updated periodically up until the moment of the announcement at 6p ET on Tuesday. The original text of the article was published at 9:00p PT on Sunday, 1/21. Because the graphic is being updated frequently, the numbers may not exactly match the preceding text in the article.

Not shown on this graphic are the other eight first-time candidates: Jose Bautista (3 votes so far, for 1.5%), Victor Martinez (2 votes), Matt Holliday (2 votes), Bartolo Colon (1 vote), Jose Reyes (none), Adrian Gonzalez (none), Brandon Phillips (none), and James Shields (none).

Anyway, with the preamble complete, here are my ten selections for my 2024 virtual ballot. I’ve listed them in order of preference.

1. Adrian Beltre – 3B (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Los Angeles Dodgers (1998-2004), Seattle Mariners (2005-2009), Boston Red Sox (2010), Texas Rangers (2011-19)
• Career: .286 BA, 477 HR, 1,707 RBI, 3,166 Hits
• Career: 116 OPS+, 93.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 2nd in 2004 N.L. MVP voting (.334 BA, 48 HR, 121 RBI, 163 OPS+, 9.6 WAR)
• 4-time All-Star, 5-time Gold Glove Award Winner, 4-time Silver Slugger
• 523 double plays turned at 3B, 2nd most ever (Brooks Robinson)
• 5,182 career assists, 3rd most ever at 3B (Robinson, Graig Nettles)

There’s not much to say here. Beltre is an obvious first-ballot Hall of Famer, whether you like old-school counting stats (3,166 hits and 477 home runs) or sabermetrics (93.5 WAR, which is the third-best for any third baseman in the history of baseball, behind Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews).

Beltre will join recent inductees David Ortiz and Vladimir Guerrero as the third inducted slugger from the Dominican Republic. Along with pitchers Pedro Martinez and Juan Marichal, he will be the fifth native of the DR to get elected to the Hall of Fame.

Beltre combined a power bat with a brilliant glove. His uppercut swing (one in which he would drag his right knee on the dirt) and his penchant for the off-balance slingshot throws to first base were both iconic.

What makes Beltre such a clear choice for Cooperstown is that he is one of those upper-echelon players who have credentials both with the bat and with the glove, thanks to his five Gold Gloves and superb defensive analytics. If he had been a mediocre fielder, he’d still be a Hall of Famer. If he was a merely average hitter, he’s still be a Hall of Famer.

Schmidt (548 HR, 10 Gold Gloves) is the best example of this for players who manned the hot corner. The other top third sackers in Cooperstown either did it almost exclusively on the strength of their bats (Wade Boggs, George Brett, Chipper Jones) or their glove (Robinson). Others (Scott Rolen and Ron Santo) would not have made it if they weren’t solid both offensively and defensively.

So, based on what he delivered as both a hitter and a fielder, it’s arguable that Beltre is the second-best third baseman overall in MLB history.

For more on Beltre’s Hall of Fame career, please click here.

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2. Carlos Beltran – CF (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (46.5% in 2023)

• Royals (1998-2004), Astros (2004), Mets (2005-11), Giants (2011), Cardinals (2012-13), Yankees (2014-16), Rangers (2016), Astros (2017)
• Career: .279 BA, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 runs, 2,725 hits, 312 SB
• Career: 119 OPS+, 70.1 WAR
• 4th most HR all-time for center fielders (behind Mays, Griffey, Mantle) (minimum 50% games played in CF)
• 4th most RBI all-time for center fielders (behind Cobb, Mays, Griffey)
• 4th most HR all-time for switch-hitters (behind Mantle, Murray, and Chipper Jones)
• 3rd most RBI all-time for switch-hitters (behind Murray, and Jones)
• 9-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove winner, 2-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Career post-season: .307 BA, .412 OBP, .609 SLG, 16 HR, 42 RBI in 256 PA
• 5th highest post-season OPS (1.021) in baseball history (min. 150 PA) (Ruth, Gehrig, Pujols, Brett)

If you just look at the long list of accomplishments outlined above, it’s pretty clear that Carlos Beltran has a resume that is worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown. When it comes to the big power statistics (HR and RBI), he’s in some very impressive company as one of the best center fielders and switch-hitters of all time.

Beltran could do it all as the ultimate five-tool player. A switch-hitter equally proficient from both sides of the plate, Beltran could hit (119 career OPS+), hit with power (435 HR), run (312 career steals), field (3 Gold Gloves), and throw (top 5 in outfield assists five times in his career). Besides having game-changing speed, Beltran stole bases with maximum efficiency. His career 86.4% stolen base success rate is the best in Major League Baseball history for players with at least 250 steals.

Despite this, Beltran is not going to make it into the Hall on this, his second time on the ballot. He’s paying a significant penalty with the writers for his role in the Astros sign-stealing scandal in 2017. That is the season in which Beltran finally won a World Series championship. Sadly, that title will be forever tainted by the scandal.

Personally, I think Beltran has paid the price already. He lost a plumb job as the manager of the New York Mets because of his role in the scandal. Noting that the 2017 Astros manager A.J. Hinch and bench coach Alex Cora are managing in the majors today, Bob Nightengale put it this way in USA Today: “Here we are, six years later, and the only man still being penalized by the scandal is Beltran. It is not only brutally unfair but egregiously cruel. Enough already.”

It won’t happen this year, but I’m confident that Beltran will make it into Cooperstown via the BBWAA in the next couple of years.

For more on Beltran’s Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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3. Joe Mauer — C (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Minnesota Twins (2004-18)
• Career: .306 BA, .388 OBP, 143 HR, 923 RBI, 2,123 hits
• Career: 124 OPS+, 55.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 2009 A.L. MVP (28 HR, 96 RBI, led A.L. with .365 BA, .444 OBP and .587 SLG)
• 2nd best batting average (.323) from 2004-2013 (to Miguel Cabrera)
• 6-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove Award winner, 5-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Career: 9th best fielding percentage for all catchers, 6th best for all first basemen

Joe Mauer is the rarest of rarities, a star player who spent his entire Major League Baseball career playing for the hometown team in the state of his birth. Mauer, a native of St. Paul, Minnesota, was the first-round draft pick of the Minnesota Twins in the 2001 player draft.

Mauer was also the number one pick overall in the 2001 draft. When he makes it to the Hall of Fame, whether it’s this year or in the next or so, he’ll be just the fourth #1 overall pick to be enshrined in Cooperstown, joining Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., and Harold Baines.

At his best, the smooth-swinging left-handed hitter was one of the best hitters in baseball: for the first ten years of his career, Mauer hit .323 with a .405 on-base% and .469 slugging%, which translated to an OPS+ of 135. His MVP campaign in 2009, one in which he became the only catcher in the history of the American or National Leagues to win the “slash line” Triple Crown (BA/OBP/SLG), was one of the finest offensive seasons for a catcher in the history of baseball.

Mauer was an obvious Hall of Famer in the making during the 2013 campaign, but a late-season concussion changed his career forever. The Twins decided to protect their hometown star by moving him to first base, and he spent the last five years of his career as a merely average first-sacker.

Because of the mediocrity of the final five years of his career, I’m really surprised that Mauer is doing so well in the voting on his first BBWAA ballot. His career counting stats (143 HR, 923 RBI, 2,123 hits) do not scream “Cooperstown,” even for a catcher. The best explanation is that he has things that both sabermetric and old-school voters like. His 55.2 WAR is very high for a catcher, the 9th best in history for a backstop. And, to go with that, his .306 career BA, MVP Award, and three Gold Gloves obviously appeal to the more traditional voter.

Still, the BBWAA has been notoriously hard on catchers. In the entire history of the Hall of Fame voting, Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez were the only catchers to be elected on the first ballot. Yogi Berra and Carlton Fisk didn’t make it until their second turn on the ballot. It took Mike Piazza four years and Gary Carter six!!

Anyway, if Mauer’s name gets called on Tuesday, he’ll be the third first-ballot inductee among backstops and just the fifth native from Minnesota to earn a spot in the Hall of Fame, joining Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor, Jack Morris, and Charles Bender in Cooperstown. Winfield, Molitor, and Morris all spent time with the Twins in the latter years of their careers; Bender pitched in the early part of the century, decades before Major League Baseball came to the Twin Cities.

Mauer may fall short, but if he makes it over 75%, you can expect to see thousands of Twins jerseys in Cooperstown this summer to celebrate the baseball coronation of Minnesota’s favorite son.

For more on what makes Joe Mauer a Hall of Famer, please click here.

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4. Todd Helton – 1B (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (72.2% in 2023)

• Colorado Rockies (1997-2013)
• Career: .316 BA, 369 HR, 1,406 RBI, 2,519 Hits
• Career: 133 OPS+, 61.8 WAR
• 592 career doubles (20th most in MLB history)
• 5-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove, 4-time Silver Slugger

I will admit that a couple of years ago when I was deciding for the first time whether Todd Helton belonged in the Hall of Fame or not, it made my brain hurt a little bit. This is thanks to him having played all of the home games in his career at Coors Field.

The left-handed hitting Helton was a doubles machine and a brilliant fielder. As a former college quarterback (at the University of Tennesee, starting ahead of Peyton Manning), Helton brought a right fielder’s arm to first base. He had exceptional range to his right, resulting in the third most assists and double plays turned for any first baseman in MLB history.

In Helton’s best season (2000), he slashed .372/.463/.698 with 42 HR, 59 doubles, 147 RBI, and 216 Hits. He and Lou Gehrig are the only players in baseball history to post a slash line above .350/.450/.550 with over 200 hits, over 40 HR, and over 50 doubles.

Sabermetric pioneer Bill James thinks Todd Helton is a Hall of Famer, which is usually good enough for me. This is what James wrote in the 2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook:

“Helton’s numbers… are SO good that nobody knows what to do with them. Helton played not only in a very high-run era, but also in a hitter’s paradise. People know intuitively that his numbers are misleading and you need to let some of the air out of them, but they don’t know intuitively how much. 

But if you will pardon my saying, that’s what guys like me are good for. Guys like Tom Tango, John Dewan, Sean Forman and myself… we know how to handle THAT problem. We normalize everything for context all of the time.

Even if you adjust for the context, Todd Helton was a Hall of Famer.”

— Bill James (2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook)

On Baseball-Reference, Helton’s top two “most similar” players based on “Similarity Scores” (a James invention) are Jeff Bagwell and Edgar Martinez. That’s pretty great company, although, remember, those three players didn’t spend half of their careers in Colorado.

Again, Bill James is somebody that I revere. He says that he’s accounted for the “Coors effect” with respect to Helton’s statistics. I took a deep dive into the numbers and reached the same conclusion.

Helton is worthy of the Hall of Fame. Perhaps thanks in part to the election of Fred McGriff last year, more writers are also coming around to his cause. Helton is tracking at 82.2% right now. That gives him a good chance at getting his name called for the Hall’s Class of 2024. It’s a remarkable state of affairs for a player who got just 16.5% in his first turn on the ballot in 2019.

Given the fact that he has 4 years left on the BBWAA ballot after this year, Helton’s going to make it into the Hall of Fame, and it will probably be this year.

For more on Todd Helton’s Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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5. Gary Sheffield – OF (10th year on the BBWAA ballot) (55.0% in 2023)

• Brewers (1988-91), Padres (1992-93), Marlins (1993-98), Dodgers (1998-2001), Braves (2002-03), Yankees (2004-06), Tigers (2007-08), Mets (2009)
• Career: .292 BA, 509 HR, 1676 RBI, 2,689 Hits
• Career: 140 OPS+, 60.5 WAR
• 9-time All-Star, 5-time Silver Slugger

Thanks to crowded ballots and an admitted use of PEDs, Gary Sheffield never got more than 14% of the Hall of Fame vote in his first five years on the ballot (he’s risen in the years since then to 55.0% a year ago). As a PED user, what makes Sheffield different from most of the others is that he admitted it right away and says he didn’t know that the “cream” he was using was a steroid. He was also an early advocate for drug testing in the sport. Clearly, many writers have decided to give him a pass for that reason.

After filling out in his early 20s, Sheffield’s body type looked consistently rock solid but not outrageously so. I am inclined to believe that he was a one-time “oops” user.

What we know for sure is that he was a fantastic and highly-feared hitter. His overall career WAR is destroyed by horrible defensive metrics. The only hitters with a higher offensive WAR (oWAR) than Sheffield’s 80.8 who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Bonds, A-Rod, Pujols, Pete Rose, Mike Trout, and Manny Ramirez.

Just using oWAR, Sheffield is ahead of Frank Thomas, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Thome, Reggie Jackson, Jeff Bagwell, Dave Winfield, Willie McCovey, and Harmon Killebrew. Regardless of what he did or didn’t do in the field, he’s a Hall of Famer to me.

But he’s not going to make it with the BBWAA. With only one year left on the ballot after this year and the PED taint, he will not be able to climb over 75%. And, given that the Era Committee thoroughly rejected Bonds, Clemens, and Rafael Palmeiro in December 2022, one wonders if Sheffield will ever make it to Cooperstown.

For more on Sheffield’s case and why he might get a PED carveout by a future Era Committee, please click here.

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6. Bobby Abreu – RF (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (15.4% in 2023)

• Astros (1996-97), Phillies (1998-2006), Yankees (2006-08), Angels (2009-2012), Dodgers (2012), Mets (2014)
• Career: .291 BA, .395 OBP, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI, 2,470 Hits, 400 SB,
• Career: 128 OPS+, 60.2 WAR
• Career: 1,476 walks (20th most in Major League Baseball history)
• 2-time All-Star, 2004 Silver Slugger, 2005 Gold Glove Award winner

Bobby Abreu is on the BBWAA ballot for the fifth time in 2024 and is the ultimate sneaky-good candidate. Abreu had power and surprising speed for a big man, listed at 220 pounds on his Baseball-Reference profile.

Abreu was durable; he’s the only player other than Willie Mays in the history of baseball to play in 150 or more games for 13 consecutive seasons (with the caveat that there are others who would have accomplished that feat if not for player strikes).

Abreu is also one of 14 players to achieve six different seasons with 100 walks and 100 runs scored. The other 13 are all in the Hall of Fame except for Barry Bonds. Finally, Abreu is one of 7 players with at least 250 HR and 350 SB, with Bonds, Derek Jeter, Rickey Henderson, Craig Biggio, Joe Morgan, and Bobby Bonds, Barry’s father.

All of those “clubs” in which Abreu is a member give him a legitimate case for the Hall but, in fairness, he’s the weakest member of the groups in which I’ve listed him (with the exception of Bobby Bonds).

I am now off the fence about whether he crosses the bar and, clearly, although most members of the BBWAA think that he doesn’t. Abreu is tracking at nearly 20% of the vote, putting him safely above the 5% required to remain on future ballots but at a level that does not portend a massive surge of support in the upcoming years.

For more on why I am off the Abreu fence and in favor of his Cooperstown candidacy, please click here.

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7. Andy Pettitte – SP (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (17.0% in 2023)

• Yankees (1995-2003, ’07-’13), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 256-153 (.626 WL%), 3.85 ERA
• Career: 117 ERA+, 60.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Career postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA in 44 starts (won 5 championships)
• 3-time All-Star

Andy Pettitte is a guy who looked like a future Hall of Famer when watching him in the first three seasons of his career. In his sophomore campaign (1996), he was a 21-game winner (finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting) and a member of the World Champion New York Yankees. In 1997 the tall left-hander went 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA (good enough for a 156 ERA+ and 8.4 WAR).

The fact is, however, after 1997, Pettitte only had one season in which he was in the top 30 of all starting pitchers in WAR. That one season was 2005, with the Astros, when he went 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA (177 ERA+, 6.8 WAR). The timing of that great campaign was perfect; he helped Houston make the playoffs (barely) as the Wild Card team. The Astros subsequently won their first-ever pennant.

Because the Yankees and Astros made the playoffs 14 times in his 18 MLB campaigns, Pettitte is the all-time postseason leader in games started (44) and, thus, also leads in wins (19) and innings (276.2). His playoff ERA (3.81) mirrors almost precisely his regular-season ERA (3.85).

If you put a gun to my head and made me the ultimate arbiter of Pettitte’s Cooperstown fate, I’d say “yes,” but I’m not crazy about his case. Not being in the top 30 in the majors in WAR for most of one’s career is not something that screams “Hall of Fame.”

If Pettitte had spent 16 years of his career with the Kansas City Royals instead of the New York Yankees, he wouldn’t be anywhere near the Hall of Fame. A “yes” for Pettitte is an acknowledgment that who gets into Cooperstown isn’t always fair and that playing for great teams helps. Anyway, Pettitte is still not in the top 10 for most of the voting members of the BBWAA and continues to do poorly in the voting.

For more on Pettitte’s complicated Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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8. Mark Buehrle – SP (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (10.8% in 2023)

• White Sox (2000-11), Marlins (2012), Blue Jays (2013-15)
• Career: 214-160 (.572 WL%), 3.81 ERA
• 117 ERA+, 60.0 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 2-0, 1 Save, 3.47 ERA in 23.1 IP in 2005 postseason (White Sox won World Series)
• Pitched a no-hitter in 2007 and a perfect game in 2009

Mark Buehrle was the kind of pitcher who would make an older fan remind you of baseball of a bygone era. He pitched to contact, and he worked fast. Like Bobby Abreu, he was also unusually durable, authoring 14 straight seasons of at least 200 innings pitched.

If the big left-hander had not chosen to retire at the age of 36, he might have put up numbers that would have made him a 21st-century version of Don Sutton.

I decided to put Buehrle on my virtual ballot last year for this main reason: starting pitchers are going to need to be evaluated differently for the 21st century than the standards in place for the hurlers of the 20th century. The players on all teams in Major League Baseball are of the mindset today to grind out long at bats and boost their opponents’ pitch counts.

200-inning seasons are becoming a rarity. Buehrle tossed 200 innings in 14 consecutive seasons. In the 21st century, only Justin Verlander (12 seasons) and James Shields (10) have logged as many as 10 campaigns with 200+ IP. In the 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons, a grand total of 16 pitchers managed to reach 200 innings.

Based on the current tracker numbers, Buehrle is close to being in danger of falling off the 2025 ballot. He deserves a full ten-year look on the BBWAA ballot. As the years pass and starting pitchers put up fewer and fewer innings, his record of durability, 214 wins, and 3,283.1 career innings will look better and better.

For a recap of Buehrle’s career and why I checked his name for the Hall of Fame, please click here.

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Finally, for my final two slots, I am selecting a player for whom I have been a longtime critic and another who is on the ballot for the first time and is in danger of falling below the 5% threshold required for future ballots.

9. Billy Wagner  – RP (9th year on the BBWAA ballot) (68.1% in 2023)

• Career: 422 Saves (86% success rate), 2.31 ERA, 0.998 WHIP
• Career: 187 ERA+, 27.8 WAR
• 7-time All-Star

Billy Wagner has some key things going for him. His career 2.31 ERA is the second-best in the last 100 years to Rivera (for pitchers with a minimum of 900 innings pitched). Using the same minimum, his 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings are the best in the history of baseball. His career WHIP (walks + hits per 9 innings) is 0.998, second-best in history to Hall of Famer Addie Joss.

So why is Wagner not in the Hall of Fame yet? The problem is the innings, as in only 903 pitched. Rivera threw 1,283.2 (to go with 652 saves). Trevor Hoffman threw 1,089.1 (along with 601 saves). Although the three closers were contemporaries, Wagner was much more of a “clean 9th inning” pitcher than the others.

Here’s a troubling statistic I uncovered through some extensive research: in the 81 times Wagner entered a save situation with runners on base, his ERA was 4.23. That mediocre number does not include the 38 out of 119 inherited runners that he allowed to cross home plate. So, including inherited runners, Wagner allowed 78 runners to score (in 83 innings) when he was tasked to be a “fireman” by squelching an existing rally.

Despite my misgivings, Wagner is going to make it into the Hall of Fame, and I am including him on my virtual ballot for the first time. There is significant momentum building for the hard-throwing lefty. He got 51.0% of the vote in 2022 and 68.1% in 2023. He’s getting the kind of BBWAA support that means he’ll definitely be elected at some point in the future, either with the writers this year or next or by the Era Committee in December 2028.

Although I would like to see if Wagner’s spectacular rate stats hold up over the next two years as Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen start to approach his career innings total, given the inevitability of his induction into the Hall of Fame, I wouldn’t want to be the skunk at the party and make him wait any longer than necessary.

There’s another reason why I would check Wagner’s name and would encourage BBWAA members to do so next December if he doesn’t clear the 75% bar this year. It’s about the fact that the Hall of Fame voting process is designed to limit the number of inductees per year. If Wagner falls short of 75% both this year and in 2025, he’ll be on the Era Committee ballot in December 2028. Those ballots are small (only eight candidates), and the members of the committees can only vote for three players each.

The mere presence of Wagner on that ballot will deprive another worthy player of a spot on that ballot. His presence alone will likely keep someone else out of the Hall of Fame that deserves to be there. So, the BBWAA has the opportunity to “clear the decks” (so to speak). They should do it. I’ve shared my misgivings, but it doesn’t change the fact that he was a dominant force out of the pen right up until the end of his career. The Hall of Fame will be elevated, not diminished, by his presence.

For more on Billy Wagner’s Hall of Fame case and why I’ve been a long-term skeptic (this is one of my favorite pieces on Cooperstown Cred), please click here.

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10. David Wright — 3B (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• New York Mets (2004-16)
• Career: .296 BA, .376 OBP, .491 SLG, 242 HR, 970 RBI
• Career: 133 OPS+, 49.2 WAR
• 7-time N.L. All-Star
• Two-time N.L. Gold Glove Award winner (2007 & 2008)
• Two-time N.L. Silver Slugger Award winner (2007 & 2008)
• 4 times in the Top 10 of MVP voting

Like Joe Mauer and Todd Helton on this ballot, David Wright spent his entire career with one team, the New York Mets, and is the best player in the history of the franchise who never wore another uniform. Wright wasn’t technically a hometown hero, but he was a Mets fan since his youth, having grown up in Norfolk, Virginia, home of the Mets’ longtime AAA affiliate, the Tidewater Tides.

For the first eight full seasons of his career (2005-12), Wright was one of the top players in baseball; he hit .301, averaged 24 HR with 97 RBI, and posted a 136 OPS+ and 39.2 WAR. He was on his way to the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, injuries limited Wright to 112 games in 2013 and 134 in 2014, and then he only managed to appear in 77 games from 2015-18.

The David Wright Hall of Fame case is one that combines peak performance and “what might have been.” It’s not that much different than Joe Mauer’s and is also quite similar to the case of another longtime Twin, Kirby Puckett. Puckett’s career ended abruptly in 1996 due to retina damage in his right eye, and he was a first-ballot inductee in 2001. The difference, of course, is that Puckett hit .318, won two World Series titles, made 10 All-Star teams, and won 6 Gold Gloves.

Anyway, there are many players in the Hall of Fame who have career statistics that are of lesser quality than Wright’s. His peak performance case is a legitimate one. Add in his leadership role in the World Baseball Classic (his nickname is “Captain America”), and you have a player that would be a credit to the Hall of Fame. I’ll admit, I’m not really sold yet, but I’d like to see how the standards of peak performance evolve in the future of the voting for the Hall of Fame.

I will also admit that I am a bit biased here as a longtime Mets fan, but I feel that Wright deserves a full ten years on the ballot. Over a dozen writers (so far) agree with this position, including Tyler Kepner (the longtime reporter for the New York Times who now works for The Athletic), Hall of Famer Jayson Stark (from the Philadelphia Inquirer, ESPN, and now The Athletic), and Pete Abraham (Boston Globe).

If you’re a Phillies fan wondering (cursing, perhaps) as to why I chose Wright and not Chase Utley, it’s simply this: I ran out of ballot space, I believe both of their cases are flawed, and I chose a “strategic” vote for a player who is in danger of falling off future ballots.  (More on Utley below).

For more on David Wright’s career with the Mets, please click here.

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Other Strong Hall of Fame Candidates

The BBWAA limits the writers to ten selections each. Some writers (those who prefer a “small Hall”) feel like that’s far more than is needed. Others (those in favor of a “big Hall”) would like to see no limit. When the ballot started getting flooded with candidates linked to Performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs), the ballot was clogged with well more than ten quality candidates for several voting cycles in a row.

For that reason, many quality candidates such as Johan Santana, Jim Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, Carlos Delgado, Lance Berkman, and Jorge Posada were booted off future ballots by getting squeezed by the “rule of 10,” causing them to get lower than the required 5% to stick around for future votes. This is why I made David Wright my tenth selection this year.

There are, however, other players that I feel have strong Hall of Fame cases. I’ll start with a pair of sluggers who would have been first-ballot Hall of Famers if not for their documented links to PEDs, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez.

Because I created my “virtual” ballot as if it were a real one, I decided not to “vote” for A-Rod or Manny this year because they are lost causes. They are stuck in voting “quicksand” in the mid-30-percent range (in an election requiring 75% of the vote).

So, why did I check the names of other players who seem like they have no chance of ever making it into Cooperstown via the BBWAA (Abreu, Pettitte, Buehrle, and Wright)? The reason is that these players have at least a chance to make it at some point in the future via the Era Committee. And also, frankly, A-Rod and Manny’s continued presence turns the “rule of 10” into the “rule of 8” for people who futilely check their names every year.

The 2023 Contemporary Baseball Committee emphatically rejected the candidacies of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Rafael Palmeiro in December 2022, and a previous committee closed the door to Mark McGwire. A-Rod and Manny fall squarely in the same category as the other four men. They’re not going to get into Cooperstown, so I would rather boost the candidacies of others.

11. Alex Rodriguez (SS/3B) (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (35.7% in 2023)

• Mariners (1994-2000), Rangers (2001-03), Yankees (2004-2016)
• Career: .295 BA, .696 HR, 2,086 RBI, 3,115 Hits
• Career: 140 OPS+, 117.5 WAR
• One of 3 players with 650 HR, 2000 RBI, and 3000 Hits (Aaron, Pujols)
• 4th on all-time lists for HR and RBI
• 3-time American League MVP (2003, ’05, ’07), with three other top 3 finishes
• 14-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove Winner, 10-time Silver Slugger

As you can see, strictly by the numbers, Alex Rodriguez was an all-time great. From his first full season in 1996 (.358 BA, 36 HR, 123 RBI) to his 2nd to last in 2015 (33 HR, 86 RBI), A-Rod was a fearsome presence in the batter’s box.

Rodriguez admitted using PEDs with the Rangers in 2001-03 and was suspended by MLB for a year due to the biogenesis scandal. There are a lot of writers who, when it comes to PEDs, draw a line between the “no-testing” era before 2005 and the years since then, when all players have been tested frequently. It’s why David Ortiz made it into the Hall of Fame and A-Rod will not. Ortiz was never suspended, while Rodriguez missed the entire 2014 season.

For more on A-Rod’s career and the conundrum about his Cooperstown candidacy, please click here.

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11. Manny Ramirez  – OF (8th year on the BBWAA ballot) (33.2% in 2023)

• Indians (1993-2000), Red Sox (2001-08), Dodgers (2008-10), White Sox (2010), Rays (2011)
• Career: .312 BA, 555 HR, 1,831 RBI, 2,574 Hits
• Career: 154 OPS+, 69.3 WAR
• 12-time All-Star, 9-time Silver Slugger
• Career postseason: 29 HR, 78 RBI, .937 OPS (his 29 HR are the most in postseason history)

If it were based solely on his performance, of course, Manny Ramirez would be a Hall of Famer. Manny could flat-out hit and hit in the clutch. Besides having the most career postseason home runs in the history of baseball, he has the 3rd most regular-season grand slams (behind Lou Gehrig and A-Rod).

But I’m withholding my virtual ballot vote for Manny this year for the reasons stated above.

For more on Manny’s career, please click here.

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13. Chase Utley — 2B (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Philadelphia Phillies (2003-15), Los Angeles Dodgers (2015-18)
• Career: 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, .275 BA, .358 OBP, .465 SLG
• Career: 117 OPS+, 64.5 WAR
• Career: 154 SB (87.5% success rate, best all-time MLB with min 100 SB)
• 6-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Member of 2008 World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies
• Hit 5 home runs in the 2009 World Series

Chase Utley was a gamer, a winner, a team leader, and a complete player. He could hit, hit with power, field brilliantly, and run with remarkable efficiency. He had one of the highest baseball IQs in the game.

Utley is a controversial Hall of Fame candidate because, although he was an excellent hitter, the crux of his Cooperstown candidacy rests in his off-the-charts defensive metrics. Like David Wright, Utley had an excellent peak, although his was shorter (and better). From 2005-09, Utley slashed .301/.388/.535 (135 OPS+) while averaging 29 HR, 101 RBI, 111 Runs, and a whopping 7.9 WAR.

But Utley struggled to stay on the field in most of his last nine seasons, which is why his counting stats are underwhelming. 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, and 1,885 Hits do not scream “Hall of Fame.”

I’ll probably come around in the future, but my main reason for being a Utley skeptic for the Hall of Fame is because his chief credential (his high WAR) is based on those otherworldly defensive metrics, which were not matched with any Gold Gloves.

From 2005-10, Utley was credited for being 119 runs above average defensively. That six-year stretch is better than the entire careers of all but 11 second basemen in the history of baseball. That tells me that the formula might be off.

For more on Utley’s Hall of Fame case and why I don’t fully trust his defensive metrics, please click here.

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14. Jimmy Rollins (SS) (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (12.9% in 2023)

• Phillies (2000-14), Dodgers (2015), White Sox (2016)
• Career: .264 BA, 231 HR, 936 RBI, 2,455 Hits
• Career: 470 SB, 105 CS (81.7%)
• Career: 95 OPS+, 47.6 WAR
• 2007 N.L. MVP (.296 BA, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 20 triples, 139 Runs, 41 SB)
• 3-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner

For those who believe in WAR, Jimmy Rollins seems like a weak candidate, based on his 47.6 WAR. That low WAR is based on the fact that he only hit .264 in his career with a .324 OBP, resulting in a 95 OPS+.

Forgetting that for a moment, Rollins has an otherwise sneaky-strong case. As a player who combined extra-base power with speed, he’s the only shortstop in the history of baseball to hit 200 home runs, leg out 100 triples, hit over 500 doubles, and steal at least 400 bases.

What I like especially about Rollins is that the guy was a winner and he stayed on the field. Rollins played in 137 games or more in 14 of his 17 MLB seasons, with 10 seasons with 150+ games.

The low WAR is worrisome, but 24 years into the 21st century, Rollins has the second-highest WAR for shortstops for the century, barely behind Derek Jeter. There are a lot of active shortstops who seem like they’ll surpass him, but there are chinks in the armor for all of them. Rollins is doing well enough on the Thibodaux tracker that he should last on the BBWAA ballot for several years. If we get to 2025 and he still looks like the second-best shortstop in the century, then I might argue that Rollins has a “second-best for his era” case.

If you gave me the ultimate power, a “yes” or “no” vote for Rollins for all eternity, I’d say “yes.”

For more on the career and Cooperstown credentials of Jimmy Rollins, please click here.

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The following players are also getting a lot of support on the current ballot, but I am not even tepidly in favor of any right now, although I might change my mind about the first one of them.

15. Andruw Jones (7th year on the BBWAA ballot) (58.1% in 2023)

• Braves (1996-’07), Dodgers (’08), Rangers (’09), White Sox (’10), Yankees (2011-12)
• Career: .254 BA, 434 HR, 1,289 RBI
• Career: 111 OPS+, 62.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove Award winner

On the surface, a center fielder with 10 Gold Gloves and over 400 home runs should be a Hall of Famer, right? Some people think so, but not all of us. However, it looks like he has enough of a constituency (one that is growing) to possibly get a Cooperstown plaque in the next few years.

Jones essentially had two careers, one in which he was a productive power hitter and a superb defensive center fielder for the Atlanta Braves. Then, after signing a free-agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he put on weight and instantly became a below-average hitter and fielder. Within two years of winning his final Gold Glove with the Braves, Jones was a platoon designated hitter for the Texas Rangers.

• 1996-2007: 61.0 WAR (4th behind Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, and Chipper Jones)
• 2008-2012: 1.7 WAR (tied for 354th in MLB)

One of my biggest beefs about the Andruw Jones Hall of Fame case is the same one that I have for Chase Utley, that you have to fully believe in his off-the-charts defensive metrics. As Bill James has noted, the metrics say that he was twice as good defensively as Willie Mays. Still, from everything I’ve read from players and writers who saw him play more than I did, he was a truly great defensive player.

For my reasons why I don’t think Jones deserves a plaque in the Hall of Fame, I invite you to take a look at this piece.

Regardless of my feelings (which are softening as the years go by and I read others’ arguments in favor), Jones does have momentum. When players increase their vote share every year as Jones has, eventual induction is likely to be inevitable.

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16. Torii Hunter – CF (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (6.9% in 2023)

• Twins (1997-2007, 2015), Angels (2008-12), Tigers (2013-14)
• Career: .277 BA, 353 HR, 1,391 RBI, 2,452 Hits,
• Career: 110 OPS+, 50.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 9-time Gold Glove Award Winner

Torii Hunter was fun to watch. He was one of his generation’s most prolific “thieves.” I’m not talking about his stolen base prowess (he stole 199 bases but was caught 99 times). I’m talking about his propensity to rob opposing batters of home runs by climbing or leaping over the outfield wall (hence his nickname “Spider-Man”).

As a center fielder, his 353 HR and 9 Gold Gloves present a similar case to Andruw Jones but is going nowhere in the voting while Jones is surging because Hunter’s career WAR is 50.7 while Jones’s is 62.7.

Analytics, however, are in the eye of the beholder (or the creator of the formula). On the Bill James “Win Shares” list, Hunter actually fares better, with 277 Win Shares compared to 276 for Jones.

For more on Hunter’s career and Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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The following two players are returning to the ballot and will probably be back in 2025, but I don’t see any time that I would ever support their candidacies for Cooperstown, and it’s not because of their off-field travails.

Omar Vizquel – SS (7th year on the BBWAA ballot) (19.5% in 2023)

• Mariners (1989-93), Indians (1994-2004), Giants (2005-08), Rangers (2009), White Sox (2010-11), Blue Jays (2012)
• Career: .272 BA, 80 HR, 951 RBI, 2,877 Hits
• Career: 82 OPS+, 45.6 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 11-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Highest fielding % of all-time for shortstops (min. 1,000 games)

No player in the history of the BBWAA voting has seen their voting support evaporate more than Omar Vizquel’s. Vizquel got 52.6% of the vote in 2020, his 3rd year on the ballot. He seemed on a glide path to eventually make it to the Hall of Fame.

However, in the last few years, two troubling revelations about his personal life were revealed, a domestic violence allegation by his ex-wife and a sexual harassment allegation by a former autistic batboy that is lurid and disgusting. As a result, voters started leaving him in droves. His vote share has plummeted from 49.1% in 2021 to 23.5% in 2022, the biggest single-year drop in the modern history of the vote (since 1966). (It went down even more in 2023).

On the field, some people thought that Omar Vizquel was the second coming of Ozzie Smith. I don’t. He was an excellent fielder, but all of the metrics say that he wasn’t nearly as good as the 11 Gold Gloves indicate. In his 24-year career, only once did Vizquel receive even one MVP vote.

Please click here for more details on why I always felt that Omar was not worthy of the Hall of Fame.

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Francisco Rodriguez — RP (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (10.8% in 2023)

• Angels (2003-08), Mets (2008-11), Brewers (2011-13, ’14-’15), Orioles (2013), Tigers (2016-17)
• Career: 52-53 (.495 WL%), 2.86 ERA
• Career: 437 Saves (4th most all-time), 76 Blown Saves (85% success rate)
• Career: 148 ERA+, 24.2 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• Finished 3rd or 4th in the A.L. Cy Young voting three times with the Angels
• 2008: saved 62 games, the most for a single season in baseball history

Francisco Rodriguez currently has the fourth most saves in the history of Major League Baseball, behind Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith. That ranking will likely drop in 2024 or 2025; Kenley Jansen has 420, while Craig Kimbrel has 417. Both are still active and in their mid-30s.

Personally, I’m not in favor of K-Rod for Cooperstown, and it’s clear that the vast majority of the BBWAA is in agreement.

Why am I dismissive of K-Rod’s Hall of Fame candidacy, despite the fact that he saved 15 more games than Billy Wagner, who got nearly 70% of the vote on the 2023 ballot? It’s simple: Wagner was much, much better. Wagner’s career ERA (2.31) is more than a half-run better than K-Rod’s. Wagner had a much lower WHIP (0.998 to 1.155) and, although lacking the flashy nickname, a better strikeout ratio (11.9 K/9 IP compared to K-Rod’s 10.5).

The bottom line is this: Francisco Rodriguez pitched like a future Hall of Famer in Anaheim (202 saves, 2.35 ERA, 189 ERA+), but for the rest of his career, he was quite ordinary (229 saves, 3.30 ERA, 122 ERA+).

For more on Rodriguez, please click here.

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