Cooperstown Cred 2025 Virtual Ballot

On Tuesday at 6:00p ET, live on the MLB Network and mlb.com, Josh Rawitch, the President of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, will announce the results of the 2025 Hall of Fame voting from the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America). Based on the early reported voting (tallied on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame vote tracker), there will be between two and four new inductees to Cooperstown. Those new members will join Dick Allen (posthumously) and Dave Parker, who were elected last month by the Era Committee.

Ichiro Suzuki, currently polling at 100% on Thibodaux’s tracker, will be the headline new Hall of Famer on Tuesday. The only question is whether he’ll join Mariano Rivera as the second unanimous selection in the Hall’s history.

It’s also a virtual certainty that CC Sabathia will join Ichiro as a first-ballot inductee. He is currently polling at 93.1% based on the Hall of Fame tracker.

Billy Wagner, in his 10th and final year on the BBWAA ballot, is currently tracking at 85.0% of the vote, which is comfortably above the 75% minimum required for a plaque in Cooperstown. So far, Thibodaux and his team have reported 173 out of the approximately 392 votes. Given that Wagner fell just five votes shy of the Hall of Fame last year and there are already nine “flips” (from “no” to “yes”), the odds are extremely high that he’ll make it as well.

The biggest suspense will be the fate of Carlos Beltran, who is on the ballot for the third time. Beltran is currently sitting at 80.3%. That’s above the 75% threshold, but the tracker almost always overestimates a player’s final tally. One year ago, Beltran was at 66.4% on “election day,” but once all of the non-public ballots were revealed, his actual tally was 57.1%, a differential of 9.3%. If that pre-election tracker vs actual differential repeats itself this Tuesday, he’ll fall short.

Other players to watch who will fall short of 75% but are trending towards an eventual Cooperstown plaque are Andruw Jones (72.3% in his 8th year on the ballot) and Chase Utley (53.2% in his 2nd year).

Besides the drama of how many players will make it to Cooperstown this summer, there is also some drama about who will drop off the ballot after this year. The Hall’s rules require that a player get at least 5% of the vote to remain on future ballots. The players on the “bubble” are Francisco Rodriguez (8.1% in his third year), Torii Hunter (1.7% in his fifth year), as well as newcomers Russell Martin (4.0%), Brian McCann (3.5%), and Ian Kinsler (2.3%).

Here are the current tracking results, according to Thibodaux and his ace tracker team of Anthony Calamis and Adam Dore.

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Note: This graphic will be updated periodically until the announcement at 6p ET on Tuesday. The original text of the article was published at 10:00a PT on Sunday, 1/19. Because the graphic is being updated frequently, the numbers may not exactly match the preceding text in the article.

Not shown on this graphic are seven other first-time candidates who have yet to receive a single vote: Curtis Granderson, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Zobrist, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones, and Fernando Rodney.

Anyway, with the preamble complete, here are my ten selections for my 2025 virtual ballot. I’ve listed them in order of preference.

1. Ichiro Suzuki – RF (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Mariners (2001-12 & ’18-19), Yankees (2012-14), Marlins (2015-17)
• Career: .311 BA, 3,089 Hits, 509 Stolen Bases
• Career: 107 OPS+, 60.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
• 10-time All-Star
• 10-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 2001 A.L. MVP and Rookie of the Year (.350 BA, 242 Hits, 56 SB)
• 2004: 262 Hits (highest single-season total in MLB history)
• One of 4 players in the last 100 years with 3,000 hits & 500 SB (Rickey Henderson, Paul Molitor, Lou Brock)

As previously noted, Ichiro Suzuki currently sits at 100% of the vote on Ryan Thibodaux’s vote tracker. He is the most obvious Hall of Famer among the 28 candidates on the BBWAA ballot.

Ichiro will be the first Japanese-born player to make it into the Hall of Fame. Despite not making his Major League Baseball debut until he was 27 years old, Ichiro surpassed the magic number of 3,000 hits in 2016, his 16th MLB campaign.

Ichiro is one of only two players in baseball history (the other being Pete Rose) to amass over 3,000 hits after his 27th birthday.

Having already been a seven-time All-Star in Japan, Ichiro burst on the scene in 2001, winning the A.L. Rookie of the Year and MVP Awards thanks to a .350 batting average, 242 hits, 127 runs, and 56 stolen bases, helping the Seattle Mariners to 116 wins.

Ichiro was an amazing player to watch. Nobody could match his prowess in bunting for a base hit, and his slashing style resulted in hits to all fields. He was a dynamic fielder with extraordinary range, a powerful arm, and the ability to make spectacular catches.

Simply put, from 2001 to 2010, Suzuki was one of the very best players in all of baseball. Here’s what he accomplished during those 10 seasons:

• Averaged .331 with 224 Hits, 105 Runs, and 38 SB for those 10 seasons
• Averaged 159 games played per season
• 10 straight seasons with 200 or more hits (only player in MLB history to do this)
• 10 straight Gold Gloves
• 10 consecutive All-Star Games (9 as an elected starter)
• Posted 54.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 3rd best among position players (behind Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez)

Ichiro did not match that level of excellence in his final nine campaigns, but he still finished his career with a .311 batting average, 509 stolen bases, 3,089 hits, and a 60.0 WAR.

If you’re a big fan of WAR, it might surprise you that his career total is only 9th out of the 28 players on the 2025 BBWAA ballot. This is for a couple of reasons. The first is that Ichiro didn’t walk a lot or hit with much power, resulting in an OPS+ of just 107. The second reason, of course, is that he didn’t start his MLB career until he was 27.

It doesn’t matter. For his historical significance and his extraordinary ten-year peak, Ichiro Suzuki will forever be considered an inner circle Hall of Famer. For more on Ichiro’s uniquely superb career, please click here.

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2. Carlos Beltran – CF (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (57.1% in 2024)

• Royals (1998-2004), Astros (2004), Mets (2005-11), Giants (2011), Cardinals (2012-13), Yankees (2014-16), Rangers (2016), Astros (2017)
• Career: .279 BA, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 runs, 2,725 hits, 312 SB
• Career: 119 OPS+, 70.1 WAR
• 4th most HR all-time for center fielders (behind Mays, Griffey, Mantle) (minimum 50% games played in CF)
• 4th most RBI all-time for center fielders (behind Cobb, Mays, Griffey)
• 4th most HR all-time for switch-hitters (behind Mantle, Murray, and Chipper Jones)
• 3rd most RBI all-time for switch-hitters (behind Murray, and Jones)
• 9-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove winner, 2-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Career post-season: .307 BA, .412 OBP, .609 SLG, 16 HR, 42 RBI in 256 PA
• 5th highest post-season OPS (1.021) in baseball history (min. 150 PA) (Ruth, Gehrig, Pujols, Brett)

If you just look at the long list of accomplishments outlined above, it’s pretty clear that Carlos Beltran has a resume that is worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown. When it comes to the big power statistics (HR and RBI), he’s in some very impressive company as one of the best center fielders and switch-hitters of all time.

Beltran could do it all as the ultimate five-tool player. A switch-hitter equally proficient from both sides of the plate, Beltran could hit (119 career OPS+), hit with power (435 HR), run (312 career steals), field (3 Gold Gloves), and throw (top 5 in outfield assists five times in his career). Besides having game-changing speed, Beltran stole bases with maximum efficiency. His career 86.4% stolen base success rate is the best in Major League Baseball history for players with at least 250 steals.

Despite this, Beltran did not make the Hall of Fame in his first two turns on the ballot and may fall short again this year as well. He’s paying a significant penalty with the writers for his role in the Astros sign-stealing scandal in 2017. That is the season in which Beltran finally won a World Series championship. Sadly, that title will be forever tainted by the scandal.

Personally, I think Beltran has paid the price already. He lost a plumb job as the manager of the New York Mets because of his role in the scandal. Noting that the 2017 Astros manager A.J. Hinch and bench coach Alex Cora are managing in the majors today, Bob Nightengale put it this way in USA Today: “Here we are, six years later, and the only man still being penalized by the scandal is Beltran. It is not only brutally unfair but egregiously cruel. Enough already.”

It may or may not happen this year, but if it doesn’t, he’ll be the headliner for the BBWAA Class of 2026.

For more on Beltran’s Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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3. CC Sabathia – SP (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Cleveland Indians (2001-08); Milwaukee Brewers (2008); New York Yankees (2009-19)
• Career: 251-161 (.609 WL%), 3.74 ERA, 3,093 strikeouts
• Career: 116 ERA+, 61.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 6-time All-Star
• Won 2007 Cy Young Award (19-7, 3.21 ERA, 5.65 SO/BB ratio)
• 4 other times in the top 5 of Cy Young Award voting
• Career WAR is better than 25 already-inducted Hall of Fame SP

When CC Sabathia is on stage in Cooperstown, New York this summer as a newly minted Hall of Famer, he won’t be the tallest, despite his 6’6″ height; that honor belongs to the 6’10” Randy Johnson. But Sabathia will definitely be the biggest. His Baseball Reference page lists the big man at a robust 300 pounds, which would make him the first 300-pound Hall of Famer ever.

Sabathia’s Hall of Fame case has flaws: his 3.74 career ERA will be the third-highest ever for a starting pitcher, behind Jack Morris and Red Ruffing. But he pitched during a prolific offensive era, making his 116 ERA+ a solid number, better than legends like Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan, along with twenty other enshrined starters.

In today’s bullpen-dominated game, over 250 wins and over 3,000 strikeouts are big, round, juicy numbers. Only fourteen other pitchers in baseball history have reached those numbers. It’s twelve Hall of Famers plus Roger Clemens and the still-active Justin Verlander.

Sometimes, a player is just an obvious Hall of Famer. Like Ichiro Suzuki, Sabathia is that guy. When we watched him pitch, we felt like we were watching a guy who would be delivering a speech in Cooperstown one day.

For more on CC Sabathia’s career and Hall of Fame credentials, please click here.

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If I were a “small Hall” voter, I could argue that only Suzuki, Beltran, and Sabathia are worthy of the Hall of Fame. However, I’m a “big Hall” guy for one reason: it’s already a big Hall. The players from 1871-1949 are overrepresented compared to the players from 1950 and beyond. Therefore, I believe in recognizing excellent players, even if they aren’t “inner circle” greats.

The next seven players on my list all had flaws. Whether it was due to shortened careers or not being truly dominant at their position, you can poke holes in the Cooperstown cases of these seven players. But they’re on my list, and here’s why:

4. Billy Wagner  – RP (10th year on the BBWAA ballot) (73.8% in 2024)

• Astros (1995-2003), Phillies (2004-05), Mets (2006-09), Red Sox (2009), Braves (2010)
• 422 career saves (6th most all-time)
• Career: 2.31 ERA (2nd best in last 100 years to Mariano Rivera) (min 750 IP)
• Career: 187 adjusted ERA+ (2nd best in all MLB history to Rivera) (min 750 IP)
• Career: 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings (2nd best in MLB history to Kenley Jansen) (min 750 IP)
• Career: 0.998 WHIP (walks + hits per 9 innings) (3rd best in MLB history to Jansen & Addie Joss)
• 7-time All-Star

Billy Wagner has some key things going for him. His career 2.31 ERA is the second-best in the last 100 years to Rivera (for pitchers with a minimum of 900 innings pitched). Using the same minimum, his 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings are the best in the history of baseball. His career WHIP (walks + hits per 9 innings) is 0.998, second-best in history to Hall of Famer Addie Joss.

So why is Wagner not in the Hall of Fame yet? The problem is the innings, as in only 903 pitched. Rivera threw 1,283.2 (to go with 652 saves). Trevor Hoffman threw 1,089.1 (along with 601 saves). Although the three closers were contemporaries, Wagner was much more of a “clean 9th inning” pitcher than the others.

Here’s a troubling statistic I uncovered through some extensive research: in the 81 times Wagner entered a save situation with runners on base, his ERA was 4.23. That mediocre number does not include the 38 out of 119 inherited runners that he allowed to cross home plate. So, including inherited runners, Wagner allowed 78 runners to score (in 83 innings) when he was tasked to be a “fireman” by squelching an existing rally.

Despite my misgivings, Wagner is going to make it into the Hall of Fame, and I am including him on my virtual ballot for the second time. This is his last time on the ballot, and I don’t believe in being the skunk at the party. Do I think he’s the fourth-best, famous, or most valuable player on this ballot? No, I don’t. Not even close. He’s number four on my list because I put a higher priority on players in their last BBWAA rodeo.

I have a higher standard for relief pitchers than for starting pitchers or position players, simply because of the low number of innings pitched. However, as Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen have faded in recent years (even as they’ve passed Wagner in career saves), it’s pretty clear that he is now the best relief pitcher in the history of baseball that is not already in the Hall of Fame. So, I’m a “yes” for him this year, and I expect that he will be on stage in Cooperstown this summer.

For more on Billy Wagner’s Hall of Fame case and why I’ve been a long-term skeptic (this is one of my favorite pieces on Cooperstown Cred), please click here.

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5. Dustin Pedroia – 2B (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Boston Red Sox (2006-2018)
• Career: .299 BA, .365 OBP, .439 SLG, 140 HR, 725 RBI, 1,805 Hits
• Career: 113 OPS+, 51.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 4-time All-Star
• 2008 A.L. MVP (.326 BA, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 118 Runs, 213 Hits, 54 doubles)
• Member of 2007 and 2013 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox

Sometimes, a player is a Hall of Famer, even if the numbers aren’t quite there. To me, Dustin Pedroia is that guy. A mighty mite, generously listed at 5’9″ on Baseball Reference, Pedroia gave it his all 100% of the time. His career was shortened severely because of a hard (dirty?) slide by Manny Machado that ultimately led to cartilage restoration surgery that Pedroia later regretted.

Pedroia was an excellent hitter for a second baseman, and a superb defensive player. His career had great significance as a Rookie of the Year, MVP, and member of three Red Sox championship squads.

Here’s a nugget from Jayson Stark in The Athletic: “Until that slide, Pedroia had played 11 full seasons — and had won a Rookie of the Year award, an MVP trophy, four Gold Gloves and two World Series. Digest that for a moment. Not to imply that that’s slightly amazing, but … only two players in history can say they did all those things (or more). One is Pedroia. The other? Johnny Bench.”

I will confess that there may be some Red Sox fan bias in my belief that Pedroia belongs in the Hall. So be it. Throughout the history of the Hall of Fame, local beat writers have often voted for a player on their “beat” in higher numbers than writers from other cities. When you watch a player play every day (in my case, I watched hundreds of Red Sox games), you gain a better appreciation of what kind of player they are.

Based on the early voting returns, it seems unlikely that Pedroia will ever make the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA, but it would not surprise me if a future version of the Era Committee puts him into Cooperstown.

As a player identified with one city, Pedroia feels very much like Tony Oliva or Gil Hodges, two Hall of Famers elected in the last few years, decades after their careers ended. I hope Pedey doesn’t have to wait decades, but I feel like he’ll be there eventually.

For more on Dustin Pedroia’s career and Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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6. Bobby Abreu – RF (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (14.8% in 2024)

• Astros (1996-97), Phillies (1998-2006), Yankees (2006-08), Angels (2009-2012), Dodgers (2012), Mets (2014)
• Career: .291 BA, .395 OBP, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI, 2,470 Hits, 400 SB,
• Career: 128 OPS+, 60.2 WAR
• Career: 1,476 walks (20th most in Major League Baseball history)
• 2-time All-Star, 2004 Silver Slugger, 2005 Gold Glove Award winner

Bobby Abreu is on the BBWAA ballot for the sixth time in 2024 and is the ultimate sneaky-good candidate. Abreu had power and surprising speed for a big man, listed at 220 pounds on his Baseball-Reference profile.

Abreu was durable; he’s the only player other than Willie Mays in the history of baseball to play in 150 or more games for 13 consecutive seasons (with the caveat that there are others who would have accomplished that feat if not for player strikes).

Abreu is also one of 14 players to achieve six different seasons with 100 walks and 100 runs scored. The other 13 are all in the Hall of Fame except for Barry Bonds. Finally, Abreu is one of 7 players with at least 250 HR and 350 SB, with Bonds, Derek Jeter, Rickey Henderson, Craig Biggio, Joe Morgan, and Bobby Bonds, Barry’s father.

All of those “clubs” in which Abreu is a member give him a legitimate case for the Hall, but, in fairness, he’s the weakest member of the groups in which I’ve listed him (with the exception of Bobby Bonds).

I have been off the fence about whether he crosses the bar for a while now, although most members of the BBWAA think that he doesn’t. Abreu is tracking at over 25% of the vote, putting him safely above the 5% required to remain on future ballots but at a level that does not portend a massive surge of support in the upcoming years.

For more on why I am off the Abreu fence and in favor of his Cooperstown candidacy, please click here.

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The next three players on my ballot are starting pitchers. They all have strong points in favor of the Hall of Fame but also have significant flaws to their cases. After CC Sabathia’s induction this summer, in the next four to eight years there will be four obvious Hall of Fame starters: Zack Greinke (eligible in 2029), and the still-active Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw.

After that esteemed quartet, there are no obvious candidates, either recently retired or still active. I believe that we can no longer hold starting pitchers to the standards of the 20th century. We need to acknowledge that 200 wins is the new 300 and also recognize brilliant peak performance from the hurlers who flamed out early due to overuse or injury.

So, let’s start with the pitcher with the fifth most wins in the modern era (1901 and beyond) who is not in the Hall.

7. Andy Pettitte – SP (7th year on the BBWAA ballot) (13.5% in 2024)

• Yankees (1995-2003, ’07-’13), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 256-153 (.626 WL%), 3.85 ERA
• Career: 117 ERA+, 60.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Career postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA in 44 starts (won 5 championships)
• 3-time All-Star

Andy Pettitte is a guy who looked like a future Hall of Famer when watching him in the first three seasons of his career. In his sophomore campaign (1996), he was a 21-game winner (finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting) and a member of the World Champion New York Yankees. In 1997, the tall left-hander went 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA (good enough for a 156 ERA+ and 8.4 WAR).

The fact is, however, after 1997, Pettitte only had one season in which he was in the top 30 of all starting pitchers in WAR. That one season was 2005, with the Astros, when he went 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA (177 ERA+, 6.8 WAR). The timing of that great campaign was perfect; he helped Houston make the playoffs (barely) as the Wild Card team. The Astros subsequently won their first-ever pennant.

Because the Yankees and Astros made the playoffs 14 times in his 18 MLB campaigns, Pettitte is the all-time postseason leader in games started (44) and, thus, also leads in wins (19) and innings (276.2). His playoff ERA (3.81) mirrors almost precisely his regular-season ERA (3.85).

I’m not crazy about his case, but I am convinced that Pettitte belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Still, if Pettitte had spent 16 years of his career with the Kansas City Royals instead of the New York Yankees, he wouldn’t be anywhere close to Cooperstown. A “yes” for Pettitte is an acknowledgment that who gets into Cooperstown isn’t always fair and that playing for great teams helps.

Anyway, Pettitte has made big gains in the voting this year, getting a net of 19 “flips” from writers who voted “no” a year ago and “yes” this year.

For more on Pettitte’s complicated Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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8. Mark Buehrle – SP (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (8.3% in 2024)

• White Sox (2000-11), Marlins (2012), Blue Jays (2013-15)
• Career: 214-160 (.572 WL%), 3.81 ERA
• 117 ERA+, 60.0 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 2-0, 1 Save, 3.47 ERA in 23.1 IP in 2005 postseason (White Sox won World Series)
• Pitched a no-hitter in 2007 and a perfect game in 2009

Mark Buehrle was the kind of pitcher who would make an older fan remind you of baseball of a bygone era. He pitched to contact, and he worked fast. Like Bobby Abreu, he was also unusually durable, authoring 14 straight seasons of at least 200 innings pitched.

If the big left-hander had not chosen to retire at the age of 36, he might have put up numbers that would have made him a 21st-century version of Don Sutton.

I decided to put Buehrle on my virtual ballot two years ago for the reason I alluded to earlier: starting pitchers are going to need to be evaluated differently for the 21st century than the standards in place for the hurlers of the 20th century. The players on all teams in Major League Baseball are of the mindset today to grind out long at bats and boost their opponents’ pitch counts.

200-inning seasons are becoming a rarity. Buehrle tossed 200 innings in 14 consecutive seasons. In the 21st century, only Justin Verlander (12 seasons) and James Shields (10) have logged as many as 10 campaigns with 200+ IP. From 2021 to 2024, a grand total of 16 pitchers managed to reach 200 innings, with only five managing the feat twice.

Based on the current tracker numbers, Buehrle is not close to being in danger of falling off the 2026 ballot. He deserves a full ten-year look on the BBWAA ballot. As the years pass and starting pitchers put up fewer and fewer innings, his record of durability, 214 wins, and 3,283.1 career innings will look better and better.

For a recap of Buehrle’s career and why I checked his name for the Hall of Fame, please click here.

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9. Felix Hernandez – SP (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Seattle Mariners (2005-2019)
• Career: 169-136 (.554), 3.42 ERA in 2,729.2 IP
• Career: 117 ERA+, 50.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 2010 A.L. Cy Young Award winner (13-12, 2.27 ERA, 174 ERA+)
• 6-time All-Star
• Led the A.L. in ERA twice (2010, 2014)

169 career victories. That total is going to make it extremely difficult for Felix Hernandez to make the Hall of Fame. I have him listed as the fourth-best starting pitcher on this ballot, behind CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and Mark Buehrle.

At his best, King Felix was better than all of them. But what he lacks is the longevity of the aforementioned trio, all of whom won over 200 games and logged 3,200 or more innings in their careers.

Hernandez’s low win total is attributable to his lack of career starts (his career was over at 33 years of age) but also due to the fact that he toiled on a second-division team, one that had the sixth-worst winning percentage (.469) during his 15 years with the team.

During those fifteen seasons, by winning percentage, Hernandez outperformed the other Seattle pitchers by nearly 100 points (.554 WL% compared to .456 for the rest of the staff). During his career, the M’s gave King Felix 4.0 runs of support per game, compared to the league average of 4.5.

From 2005-15, Hernandez had the highest WAR among all pitchers in Major League Baseball and the most strikeouts. He has a legitimate peak performance case for Cooperstown.

Oh, but those 169 wins. There are only three Hall of Famers with less: Sandy Koufax, Addie Joss, and Dizzy Dean. King Felix was dominant during his era of excellence but not at the level of the Koufax, Joss, and Dean.

King Felix may make it to the Hall of Fame someday, but it will likely be a long time. Still, he’s doing well enough on the ballot currently that he should last the full ten years of his eligibility.

For more on the career and Hall of Fame case for Felix Hernandez, please click here.

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10. David Wright — 3B (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (6.2% in 2024)

• New York Mets (2004-16)
• Career: .296 BA, .376 OBP, .491 SLG, 242 HR, 970 RBI
• Career: 133 OPS+, 49.2 WAR
• 7-time N.L. All-Star
• Two-time N.L. Gold Glove Award winner (2007 & 2008)
• Two-time N.L. Silver Slugger Award winner (2007 & 2008)
• 4 times in the Top 10 of MVP voting

Like Dustin Pedroia and Felix Hernandez, David Wright spent his entire career with one team, the New York Mets, and is the best player in the history of the franchise who never wore another uniform. Wright wasn’t technically a hometown hero, but he was a Mets fan since his youth, having grown up in Norfolk, Virginia, home of the Mets’ longtime AAA affiliate, the Tidewater Tides.

For the first eight full seasons of his career (2005-12), Wright was one of the top players in baseball; he hit .301, averaged 24 HR with 97 RBI, and posted a 136 OPS+ and 39.2 WAR. He was on his way to the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, injuries limited Wright to 112 games in 2013 and 134 in 2014, and then he only managed to appear in 77 games from 2015-18.

The David Wright Hall of Fame case is one that combines peak performance and “what might have been.” It’s quite similar to the case of another one-team player, Kirby Puckett of the Minnesota Twins. Puckett’s career ended abruptly in 1996 due to retina damage in his right eye, and he was a first-ballot inductee in 2001. The difference, of course, is that Puckett hit .318, won two World Series titles, made 10 All-Star teams, and won 6 Gold Gloves.

Anyway, there are many players in the Hall of Fame who have career statistics that are of lesser quality than Wright’s. His peak performance case is a legitimate one. Add in his leadership role in the World Baseball Classic (his nickname is “Captain America”), and you have a player that would be a credit to the Hall of Fame. I’ll admit, I’m not really sold yet, but I’d like to see how the standards of peak performance evolve in the future of the voting for the Hall of Fame.

I will also admit that I am a bit biased here as a longtime Mets fan, but I feel that Wright deserves a full ten years on the ballot.

If you’re a Phillies fan wondering (cursing, perhaps) as to why I chose Wright and not Chase Utley, it’s simply this: I ran out of ballot space, I believe both of their cases are flawed, and I chose a “strategic” vote for a player who is in danger of falling off future ballots.  (More on Utley below).

For more on David Wright’s career with the Mets, please click here.

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Other Strong Hall of Fame Candidates

The BBWAA limits the writers to ten selections each. Some writers (those who prefer a “small Hall”) feel like that’s far more than is needed. Others (those in favor of a “big Hall”) would like to see no limit. When the ballot started getting flooded with candidates linked to Performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs), the ballot was clogged with well more than ten quality candidates for several voting cycles in a row.

For that reason, many quality candidates such as Johan Santana, Jim Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, Carlos Delgado, Lance Berkman, and Jorge Posada were booted off future ballots by getting squeezed by the “rule of 10,” causing them to get lower than the required 5% to stick around for future votes. This is why I made David Wright my tenth selection this year.

There are, however, other players that I feel have strong Hall of Fame cases. I’ll start with a pair of sluggers who would have been first-ballot Hall of Famers if not for their documented links to PEDs, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez.

Because I created my “virtual” ballot as if it were a real one, I decided not to “vote” for A-Rod or Manny last year because they are lost causes. They are stuck in voting “quicksand” in the mid-30-percent range (in an election requiring 75% of the vote).

So, why did I check the names of other players who seem like they have no chance of ever making it into Cooperstown via the BBWAA (Abreu, Pettitte, Pedroia, Buehrle, and Wright)? The reason is that these players have at least a chance to make it at some point in the future via the Era Committee. And also, frankly, A-Rod and Manny’s continued presence turns the “rule of 10” into the “rule of 8” for people who futilely check their names every year.

The 2023 Contemporary Baseball Committee emphatically rejected the candidacies of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Rafael Palmeiro in December 2022, and a previous committee closed the door to Mark McGwire. A-Rod and Manny fall squarely in the same category as the other four men. They’re not going to get into Cooperstown, so I would rather boost the candidacies of others.

11. Alex Rodriguez (SS/3B) (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (35.7% in 2023)

• Mariners (1994-2000), Rangers (2001-03), Yankees (2004-2016)
• Career: .295 BA, .696 HR, 2,086 RBI, 3,115 Hits
• Career: 140 OPS+, 117.5 WAR
• One of 3 players with 650 HR, 2000 RBI, and 3000 Hits (Aaron, Pujols)
• 4th on all-time lists for HR and RBI
• 3-time American League MVP (2003, ’05, ’07), with three other top 3 finishes
• 14-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove Winner, 10-time Silver Slugger

As you can see, strictly by the numbers, Alex Rodriguez was an all-time great. From his first full season in 1996 (.358 BA, 36 HR, 123 RBI) to his 2nd to last in 2015 (33 HR, 86 RBI), A-Rod was a fearsome presence in the batter’s box.

Rodriguez admitted using PEDs with the Rangers in 2001-03 and was suspended by MLB for a year due to the biogenesis scandal. There are a lot of writers who, when it comes to PEDs, draw a line between the “no-testing” era before 2005 and the years since then, when all players have been tested frequently. It’s why David Ortiz made it into the Hall of Fame and A-Rod will not. Ortiz was never suspended, while Rodriguez missed the entire 2014 season.

For more on A-Rod’s career and the conundrum about his Cooperstown candidacy, please click here.

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12. Manny Ramirez  – OF (8th year on the BBWAA ballot) (33.2% in 2023)

• Indians (1993-2000), Red Sox (2001-08), Dodgers (2008-10), White Sox (2010), Rays (2011)
• Career: .312 BA, 555 HR, 1,831 RBI, 2,574 Hits
• Career: 154 OPS+, 69.3 WAR
• 12-time All-Star, 9-time Silver Slugger
• Career postseason: 29 HR, 78 RBI, .937 OPS (his 29 HR are the most in postseason history)

If it were based solely on his performance, of course, Manny Ramirez would be a Hall of Famer. Manny could flat-out hit and hit in the clutch. Besides having the most career postseason home runs in the history of baseball, he has the 3rd most regular-season grand slams (behind Lou Gehrig and A-Rod).

But I’m withholding my virtual ballot vote for Manny this year for the reasons stated above.

For more on Manny’s career, please click here.

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13. Chase Utley — 2B (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (28.8% in 2024)

• Philadelphia Phillies (2003-15), Los Angeles Dodgers (2015-18)
• Career: 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, .275 BA, .358 OBP, .465 SLG
• Career: 117 OPS+, 64.5 WAR
• Career: 154 SB (87.5% success rate, best all-time MLB with min 100 SB)
• 6-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Member of 2008 World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies
• Hit five home runs in the 2009 World Series

Chase Utley was a gamer, a winner, a team leader, and a complete player. He could hit, hit with power, field brilliantly, and run with remarkable efficiency. He had one of the highest baseball IQs in the game.

Utley is a controversial Hall of Fame candidate because, although he was an excellent hitter, the crux of his Cooperstown candidacy rests in his off-the-charts defensive metrics. Like David Wright, Utley had an excellent peak, although his was shorter (and better). From 2005-09, Utley slashed .301/.388/.535 (135 OPS+) while averaging 29 HR, 101 RBI, 111 Runs, and a whopping 7.9 WAR.

But Utley struggled to stay on the field in most of his last nine seasons, which is why his counting stats are underwhelming. 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, and 1,885 Hits do not scream “Hall of Fame.”

I’ll probably include Utley on my virtual ballot next year because there will be “space” with no obvious first-time candidates (the best of which are Cole Hamels and Ryan Braun).

My main reason for being a Utley skeptic for the Hall of Fame is because his chief credential (his high WAR) is based on those otherworldly defensive metrics, which were not matched with any Gold Gloves.

From 2005-10, Utley was credited for being 119 runs above average defensively. That six-year stretch is better than the entire careers of all but 11 second basemen in the history of baseball. That tells me that the formula might be off.

For more on Utley’s Hall of Fame case and why I don’t fully trust his defensive metrics, please click here.

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14. Jimmy Rollins (SS) (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (12.9% in 2024)

• Phillies (2000-14), Dodgers (2015), White Sox (2016)
• Career: .264 BA, 231 HR, 936 RBI, 2,455 Hits
• Career: 470 SB, 105 CS (81.7%)
• Career: 95 OPS+, 47.6 WAR
• 2007 N.L. MVP (.296 BA, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 20 triples, 139 Runs, 41 SB)
• 3-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner

For those who believe in WAR, Jimmy Rollins seems like a weak candidate, based on his 47.6 WAR. That low WAR is based on the fact that he only hit .264 in his career with a .324 OBP, resulting in a 95 OPS+.

Forgetting that for a moment, Rollins has an otherwise sneaky-strong case. As a player who combined extra-base power with speed, he’s the only shortstop in the history of baseball to hit 200 home runs, leg out 100 triples, hit over 500 doubles, and steal at least 400 bases.

What I especially like about Rollins is that the guy was a winner and stayed on the field. Rollins played in 137 games or more in 14 of his 17 MLB seasons, with 10 seasons with 150+ games.

The low WAR is worrisome, but 24 years into the 21st century, Rollins has the third-highest WAR for shortstops for the century, behind Francisco Lindor and barely behind Derek Jeter. There are some active shortstops who seem like they’ll surpass him, but there are chinks in the armor for all of them.

Rollins is doing well enough on the Thibodaux tracker that he should last on the BBWAA ballot for the full ten years. If we get to 2026 or 2027, and he still looks like the third-best shortstop in the century, then I might argue that Rollins has a “one of the best of his era” case.

If you gave me the ultimate power, a “yes” or “no” vote for Rollins for all eternity, I’d say “yes.”

For more on Jimmy Rollins’ career and Cooperstown credentials, please click here.

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The following two players are also getting a lot of support on the current ballot, but I am not in favor of either of them right now, although I might change my mind about the first one.

15. Andruw Jones (8th year on the BBWAA ballot) (61.6% in 2024)

• Braves (1996-’07), Dodgers (’08), Rangers (’09), White Sox (’10), Yankees (2011-12)
• Career: .254 BA, 434 HR, 1,289 RBI
• Career: 111 OPS+, 62.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove Award winner

On the surface, a center fielder with 10 Gold Gloves and over 400 home runs should be a Hall of Famer, right? Some people think so, but not all of us. However, it looks like he has enough of a constituency (one that is growing) to possibly get a Cooperstown plaque in the next couple of years.

Jones essentially had two careers, one in which he was a productive power hitter and a superb defensive center fielder for the Atlanta Braves. Then, after signing a free-agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he put on weight and instantly became a below-average hitter and fielder. Within two years of winning his final Gold Glove with the Braves, Jones was a platoon designated hitter for the Texas Rangers.

• 1996-2007: 61.0 WAR (4th behind Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, and Chipper Jones)
• 2008-2012: 1.7 WAR (tied for 354th in MLB)

One of my biggest beefs about the Andruw Jones Hall of Fame case is the same one that I have for Chase Utley, which is that you have to fully believe in his off-the-charts defensive metrics. As Bill James has noted, the metrics say that he was twice as good defensively as Willie Mays. Still, from everything I’ve read from players and writers who saw him play more than I did, he was a truly great defensive player.

For the reasons why I don’t think Jones deserves a plaque in the Hall of Fame, I invite you to take a look at this piece.

Regardless of my feelings (which are softening as the years go by and I read others’ arguments in favor), Jones does have momentum. When players increase their vote share every year as Jones has, eventual induction is likely to be inevitable.

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16. Torii Hunter – CF (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (7.3% in 2024)

• Twins (1997-2007, 2015), Angels (2008-12), Tigers (2013-14)
• Career: .277 BA, 353 HR, 1,391 RBI, 2,452 Hits,
• Career: 110 OPS+, 50.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 9-time Gold Glove Award Winner

Torii Hunter was fun to watch. He was one of his generation’s most prolific “thieves.” I’m not talking about his stolen base prowess (he stole 199 bases but was caught 99 times). I’m talking about his propensity to rob opposing batters of home runs by climbing or leaping over the outfield wall (hence his nickname “Spider-Man”).

As a center fielder, his 353 HR and 9 Gold Gloves present a similar case to Andruw Jones but is going nowhere in the voting while Jones is surging because Hunter’s career WAR is 50.7 while Jones’s is 62.7.

Analytics, however, are in the eye of the beholder (or the creator of the formula). On the Bill James “Win Shares” list, Hunter actually fares better, with 277 Win Shares compared to 276 for Jones.

This will probably be Hunter’s last time on the BBWAA ballot, but it would not surprise me if a future version of the Era Committee smiles upon his candidacy.

For more on Hunter’s career and Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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The following two players are returning to the ballot and will probably be back in 2026, but I don’t see any time that I would ever support their candidacies for Cooperstown, and it’s not because of their off-field travails.

Omar Vizquel – SS (8th year on the BBWAA ballot) (17.7% in 2024)

• Mariners (1989-93), Indians (1994-2004), Giants (2005-08), Rangers (2009), White Sox (2010-11), Blue Jays (2012)
• Career: .272 BA, 80 HR, 951 RBI, 2,877 Hits
• Career: 82 OPS+, 45.6 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 11-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Highest fielding % of all-time for shortstops (min. 1,000 games)

No player in the history of the BBWAA voting has seen their voting support evaporate more than Omar Vizquel’s. Vizquel got 52.6% of the vote in 2020, his 3rd year on the ballot. He seemed on a glide path to eventually make it to the Hall of Fame.

However, in the last few years, two troubling revelations about his personal life were revealed, a domestic violence allegation by his ex-wife and a sexual harassment allegation by a former autistic batboy that is lurid and disgusting. As a result, voters started leaving him in droves. His vote share has plummeted from 49.1% in 2021 to 23.5% in 2022, the biggest single-year drop in the modern history of the vote (since 1966). Vizquel got just 17.7% one year ago.

On the field, some people thought that Omar Vizquel was the second coming of Ozzie Smith. I don’t. He was an excellent fielder, but all of the metrics say that he wasn’t nearly as good as the 11 Gold Gloves indicate. In his 24-year career, only once did Vizquel receive even one MVP vote.

Please click here for more details on why I always felt that Omar was not worthy of the Hall of Fame.

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Francisco Rodriguez — RP (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (7.8% in 2024)

• Angels (2003-08), Mets (2008-11), Brewers (2011-13, ’14-’15), Orioles (2013), Tigers (2016-17)
• Career: 52-53 (.495 WL%), 2.86 ERA
• Career: 437 Saves (6th most all-time), 76 Blown Saves (85% success rate)
• Career: 148 ERA+, 24.2 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• Finished 3rd or 4th in the A.L. Cy Young voting three times with the Angels
• 2008: saved 62 games, the most for a single season in baseball history

Francisco Rodriguez currently has the sixth most saves in the history of Major League Baseball, behind Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Kenley Jansen, and Craig Kimbrel.

Personally, I’m not in favor of K-Rod for Cooperstown, and it’s clear that the vast majority of the BBWAA is in agreement.

Why am I dismissive of K-Rod’s Hall of Fame candidacy despite the fact that he saved 15 more games than Billy Wagner, who got nearly 75% of the vote on the 2024 ballot? It’s simple: Wagner was much, much better. Wagner’s career ERA (2.31) is more than a half-run better than K-Rod’s. Wagner had a much lower WHIP (0.998 to 1.155) and, although lacking the flashy nickname, a better strikeout ratio (11.9 K/9 IP compared to K-Rod’s 10.5).

The bottom line is this: Francisco Rodriguez pitched like a future Hall of Famer in Anaheim (202 saves, 2.35 ERA, 189 ERA+), but for the rest of his career, he was quite ordinary (229 saves, 3.30 ERA, 122 ERA+).

For more on Rodriguez, please click here.

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