Cooperstown Cred Virtual Ballot for the Hall of Fame Class of 2020

On Tuesday, live on the MLB Network at 6:00p ET, one to three new members of the Class of 2020 for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum will be announced. Whoever gets elected, by receiving at least 75% of the 400+ expected votes, will join catcher Ted Simmons on stage this summer in Cooperstown, New York. Simmons was elected to the Hall of Fame last month along with former Major League Baseball Players Association chief Marvin Miller, who will be inducted posthumously.

I am not a Hall of Fame voter and almost certainly never will be but I’ll stack the number of hours I spend thinking and writing about the Hall of Fame with almost every voting member of the BBWAA.

Anyway, with all lack of humility, I hereby submit the virtual Cooperstown Cred ballot for the Hall of Fame Class of 2020. Just as the writers are limited to 10 selections, I’ll do the same. However, I will also indicate which candidates (if any) outside of the top 10 that I also feel deserve a Cooperstown plaque in the future.

I am listing these players in order and share links to full-length pieces I’ve written about them on Cooperstown Cred.

(cover photo: Newsday/Sports Illustrated)

1. Derek Jeter – SS (1st year on BBWAA Ballot)

• New York Yankees (1995-2014)
• Career: .310 BA, 260 HR, 1,311 RBI, 358 SB, 115 OPS+, 72.4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 3,465 career Hits (6th most in baseball history)
• 14-time All-Star, 5-time Gold Glove Winner, 5-time Silver Slugger Winner
• Won 5 World Series Championships with the Yankees

Derek Jeter will be the headliner when the Hall of Fame’s Class of 2020 is inducted at Clark Field in Cooperstown, New York on July 26th this summer. Regarding the upcoming announcement this Tuesday, the only suspense is whether Jeter will be the second player to ever receive 100% of the vote from the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America). A year ago, Jeter’s longtime teammate Mariano Rivera became the first player ever to get the Hall call without a single “nay” vote among the writers of the BBWAA.

By the way, I do not think Jeter was a better player than Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens. I listed Jeter first because, if I could put one person into the Hall of Fame from the current ballot and nobody else would ever get in, I would choose him without hesitation. Besides being one of the great shortstops in baseball history, Jeter was a class act throughout his career, displaying true character and sportsmanship.

For a visual feast of YouTube highlights peppered throughout Jeter’s illustrious 20-year career, please click here.

2. Barry Bonds – LF (8th year on BBWAA ballot) (59% in 2019)

• Pirates (1986-92), Giants (1993-2007)
• Career: 762 HR, 1,996 RBI, 514 SB, 182 OPS+, 162.8 WAR
• Owns career (762) and single-season (73) records for home runs
• 7-time N.L. MVP, 14-time All-Star
• 8-time Gold Glove Award Winner, 12-time Silver Slugger

I have always been in favor of electing Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens to the Hall of Fame, despite their almost certain use of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). Bonds is, simply put, the best baseball player I have ever witnessed with my own eyes.

The prevailing narrative about Bonds’ use of PEDs is that he was irritated by all of the attention Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were receiving in 1998 during their historic run at Roger Maris’ single-season home run record. If you believe that Bonds started using PEDs in 1999, the year after the Great Home Run Chase, here is how his career statistics at the time (through ’98) stack up against other Hall of Fame outfielders that could hit with power and run a bit.

WP Table Builder

When you consider the fact that, at the age of 34, Bonds was already the only player in the history of baseball to record 400 home runs and 400 stolen bases, he would have been a first ballot Hall of Famer if he retired to become a monk in Tibet and never sniffed a PED.

3. Roger Clemens – SP (8th year on BBWAA ballot) (59.5% in 2019)

• Red Sox (1984-96), Blue Jays (1997-98), Yankees (1999-2003, ’07), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 354-184 (.658 WL%), 3.12 ERA, 4,672 SO, 143 ERA+, 138.7 WAR
• Only pitcher ever to strike out 20 batters in a game twice
• 1986 A.L. MVP, 7-time Cy Young Award Winner, 11-time All-Star

The story with Roger Clemens is essentially the same as it is with Bonds although, for me personally, I can’t say he’s necessarily the best pitcher I ever saw. Clearly, the overall volume of work is vastly superior to any other hurlers of his generation but Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson at their best could certainly give the Rocket a run for his money.

Anyway, nobody is certain when Clemens started using PEDs (or if he did with absolute certainty). According to his trainer with the Toronto Blue Jays (Brian McNamee), he didn’t start injecting Clemens with Winstrol until 1998, Clemens’ second season with the Blue Jays. The year is kind of important. Clemens had arguably the best season of his career in 1997 (21-7, 2.05 ERA), the year before he allegedly started using.

For the sake of argument, take a look at Clemens’ career numbers through the 1996 season (his last year with the Boston Red Sox) and compare them to the entire career of the late Roy Halladay, who was on the Hall of Fame ballot a year ago and a first ballot inductee.

WP Table Builder

Clemens has statistics to match Halladay’s entire career based solely on his Red Sox years from 1984-96. Besides the 3 Cy Young Awards, Clemens also owned a MVP trophy and had already had two separate games in which he struck out 20 batters.

If Clemens had decided to hang up his spikes after the 1996 season and become a rancher in Texas, he would have been a Hall of Famer anyway.

I understand that there is a significant bloc of Hall of Fame voters who don’t want to “reward” players they consider to be “cheaters” with a Cooperstown plaque. I get it. But the truth is that the game of baseball was very permissive at the time. There was no drug testing policy. The media paid scant attention to the issue for years.

I don’t know if Bonds or Clemens will cross the finish line and get over 75% of the vote in the next few seasons. Right now it’s looking less and less likely. For more on the annual conundrum of what to do about Bonds and Clemens, click here.

4. Curt Schilling – SP (8th year on BBWAA ballot) (61% in 2019)

• Orioles (1988-90), Astros (1991), Phillies (1992-2000). D’Backs (2000-03), Red Sox (2004-07)
• Career: 216-146 (.597 WL%), 3.46 ERA, 3,116 SO, 127 ERA+, 80.5 WAR
• Postseason career: 11-2, 2.23 ERA in 133.1 IP (won 3 championships)
• 6-time All-Star

Curt Schilling has had to wait for his call to the Hall of Fame because he finished his career with only 216 wins, because he never won a Cy Young Award and, in part, because of his itchy Twitter fingers (more about that here).

It doesn’t change the fact that Schilling was a dominant pitcher, especially in his 30’s, and arguably the best postseason starting pitcher in the last 50 years. Also, there is this: Schilling’s career 4.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the best in MLB since 1884 (min 1,500 IP). That’s 1884 (President Chester Arthur), not 1984 (Ronald Reagan).

Finally, Schilling’s career WAR of 80.5 is the second best for any pitcher not already enshrined into the Hall of Fame except for Clemens.

Schilling is currently polling at 79.5% on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, with 171 votes having been made public out of the estimated 412 that were cast. That’s better than the 75% needed for enshrinement but it’s important to know that Thibodaux’s tracker typically over-estimates a player’s final vote percentage. This is because many of the voters who choose to remain anonymous are among the most curmudgeonly with their selections.

One year ago, Schilling’s “pre-announcement” vote percentage was 69.8%; his final vote total turned out to be 60.9%. If history repeats itself, that would put him at a bit above 70% when all the votes are revealed next Tuesday. That’s not good enough for the Hall this year but puts him in “scoring position” for a plaque in 2021.

5. Larry Walker – RF (10th year on the BBWAA ballot) (55% in 2019)

• Expos (1989-94), Rockies (1995-2004), Cardinals (2004-05)
• Career: .313 BA, 383 HR, 1,311 RBI, 141 OPS+, 72.7 WAR
• 1997 MVP with Rockies (.366 BA, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 178 OPS+)
• 5-time All-Star, 7-time Gold Glove Award winner, 3-time Silver Slugger

I spent many years believing that Larry Walker was not a Hall of Famer. Although Walker’s rate stats are/were tremendous, I always put a heavy discount on them because of the 10 years that he spent in Coors Field.

In the summer of 2017, I did a deep, deep dive into the numbers and concluded that Walker took advantage of his home park in a huge way that none of his teammates ever did. At the same time, his road stats (.865 OPS) are still highly respectable and better than those posted by many Hall of Famers.

I believe in sabermetrics but do not ever feel bound by them. Walker’s 141 OPS+ is 41% better than league average and it takes the Coors effect into account. His high WAR (72.7) is based on superb defensive metrics (which are backed up by 7 Gold Gloves) and excellent base-running metrics (230 SB, only 76 CS).

For me, if a position player has a WAR of 70 or higher, you’d better figure out a really good reason why you think it’s misleading. I don’t see that here. Walker belongs in the Hall.

Whether Walker will actually make it or not in this, his final year of eligibility, is the biggest unknown that will be revealed on Tuesday when the final vote totals are announced. He’s currently polling at 85.4% on Thibodaux’s tracker but, again, the tracker typically over-estimates a player’s final vote total.

A year ago, Walker received 65.9% of all of the votes revealed prior to the actual announcement. When that announcement came, his actual total turned out to be 54.6%, a full 11.3% behind the projections. He did especially poorly on the ballots from voters who chose to remain anonymous, getting just 27.9% of those votes.

6. Jeff Kent – 2B (7th year on the BBWAA ballot) (18% in 2019)

• Blue Jays (1992), Mets (1992-96), Indians (’96), Giants (1997-2002), Astros (2003-04), Dodgers (2005-08)
• Career: .290 BA, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 2,461 Hits, 123 OPS+, 55.4 WAR
• 377 home runs (most all-time for 2B)
• 2000 NL MVP (.334 BA, 33 HR, 125 RBI)
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger

I have always been simultaneously baffled that Jeff Kent has gotten no respect from the BBWAA over the last six years while also understanding why he hasn’t.

Why baffled? Kent has the most home runs all time for a second baseman. He has the third most RBI (behind Hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby and Nap Lajoie). His .500 career slugging percentage is second best only to Hornsby. His 560 doubles are fourth best to Craig Biggio, Lajoie and Charlie Gehringher (all Hall of Famers). In “RBat” (the Runs Above Average Batting component of WAR), he’s 6th, behind Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Lajoie, Joe Morgan and Gehringer. Again, all in the Hall of Fame.

Why do I understand it? Year after year, it’s been a packed ballot, baby! I didn’t have room for Kent in my virtual top 10 until a year ago, when I pegged him as my 10th and final selection.

There’s also the fact that Kent’s WAR is relatively low, thanks to a high double play rate and poor defensive metrics. Finally, it’s true that Kent was a late bloomer and Hall of Famer players usually imprint themselves into the brains of the BBWAA members early in their careers. Kent didn’t become a star until he was 29, when Giants manager Dusty Baker had the faith to put his new second baseman into the middle of the order.

For more on why I feel Kent belongs in the Hall of Fame, please click here.

7. Scott Rolen – 3B (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (17% in 2019)

• Phillies (1996-2002), Cardinals (2002-07), Blue Jays (2008-09), Reds (2009-12)
• Career: .281 BA, 316 HR, 1,287 RBI, 122 OPS+, 70.2 WAR
• 7-time All-Star, 8-time Gold Glove Winner, 2002 N.L. Silver Slugger

As it is with Larry Walker, Scott Rolen is a WAR candidate (as I write about in more detail here). Both have a WAR over 70 and both are over that number based on superior defensive metrics, which are backed by Gold Glove hardware.

If you think about it, it’s fairly surprising that Rolen did so poorly on his first two ballots. Besides the high WAR, there is the combination of a power bat and Gold Glove awards. First of all, there are only two third sackers in baseball history with more Gold Gloves, Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt. The “club” of third basemen with 300+ home runs and 8 Gold Gloves is a club with two members, Schmidt and Rolen.

Rolen got 17% of the vote last year and is surging in the early voting reported by Thibodaux, having earned a whopping 50.3% of the votes revealed so far. That total will drop when the final votes are tallied but it’s a surge that portends a Cooperstown plaque in the upcoming years.

8. Gary Sheffield – OF (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (14% in 2018)

• Brewers (1988-91), Padres (1992-93), Marlins (1993-98), Dodgers (1998-2001), Braves (2002-03), Yankees (2004-06), Tigers (2007-08), Mets (2009)
• Career: .292 BA, 509 HR, 1676 RBI, 2,689 Hits, 140 OPS+, 60.5 WAR
• 9-time All-Star, 5-time Silver Slugger

Thanks to a crowded ballot and an admitted use of PEDs, Gary Sheffield has never gotten more than 14% of the Hall of Fame vote. As a PED user, what makes Sheffield different from most of the others is that he admitted it right away and says he didn’t know that the “cream” he was using was a steroid. Clearly, some writers have decided to give him a pass for that reason. Other than Rolen, no player is surging more in the posted early voting results than Sheffield, who is tracking at 37.4%, having flipped 40 votes from “no” to “yes” with only 2 going the other way.

After filling out in his early 20’s, Sheffield’s body type looked consistently rock solid but not outrageously so. I am inclined to believe that he was a one-time “oops” user. With PED users (proven or suspected) I look for authenticity. I feel that his numbers are reflective of his natural hitting ability.

What we know for sure is that he was a fantastic and highly feared hitter. His career WAR is destroyed by horrible defensive metrics. The only hitters with a higher offensive WAR (oWAR) than Sheffield’s 80.8 who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Bonds, A-Rod, Jeter (who will get elected on Tuesday), Pujols, Pete Rose, and Manny Ramirez.

Just using oWAR, Sheffield is ahead of Frank Thomas, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Thome, Reggie Jackson, Jeff Bagwell, Dave Winfield, Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew. Regardless of what he did or didn’t do in the field, that’s a Hall of Famer to me. For more on Sheffield, click here.

9. Todd Helton – 1B (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (16.5% in 2019)

• Colorado Rockies (1997-2013)
• Career: .316 BA, 369, 1,406 RBI, 2,519 Hits, 133 OPS+, 61.2 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove, 4-time Silver Slugger

I will admit that a year ago when I was deciding for the first time whether Todd Helton belonged in the Hall of Fame or not, it made my brain hurt a little bit. This is thanks to him having played all of the home games in his career at Coors Field.

Sabermetric pioneer Bill James thinks he’s a Hall of Famer, which is usually good enough for me. This what James wrote in the 2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook:

“Helton’s numbers… are SO good that nobody knows what to do with them. Helton played not only in a very high-run era, but also in a hitter’s paradise. People know intuitively that his numbers are misleading and you need to let some of the air out of them, but they don’t know intuitively how much. 

But if you will pardon my saying, that’s what guys like me are good for. Guys like Tom Tango, John Dewan, Sean Forman and myself… we know how to handle THAT problem. We normalize everything for context all of the time.

Even if you adjust for the context, Todd Helton was a Hall of Famer.”

— Bill James (2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook)

On Baseball Reference, Helton’s top two “most similar” players based on “Similarity Scores” (a James invention) are Jeff Bagwell and Edgar Martinez. That’s pretty great company although, remember, those three players didn’t spend half of their careers in Colorado.

Again, Bill James is somebody that I revere. He says that he’s accounted for the “Coors effect” with respect to Helton’s statistics. I took a deep dive into the numbers and concluded that James is correct. Of course he was correct!

Helton is in fact worthy of the Hall of Fame.

10. Manny Ramirez  – OF (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (23% in 2019)

• Indians (1993-2000), Red Sox (2001-08), Dodgers (2008-10), White Sox (2010), Rays (2011)
• Career: .312 BA, 555 HR, 1,831 RBI, 2,574 Hits, 154 OPS+, 69.4 WAR
• 12-time All-Star, 9-time Silver Slugger

If it were based solely on his performance, of course Manny Ramirez would be a Hall of Famer. Manny could flat out hit and hit in the clutch. He has the most career postseason home runs in the history of baseball and the 3rd most regular season grand slams (behind Lou Gehrig and Alex Rodriguez).

He would be #4 on my list behind Jeter, Bonds and Clemens if he had not tested positive for PEDs in 2009 and then again in 2011.

When it comes to PED users, authenticity is again the key for me. Was the player’s career authentically one of Hall of Fame caliber or a chemically enhanced farce? I’m inclined to believe the former. For more on where Manny ranks among the great hitters in baseball history and why I’m forgiving him for his two failed drug tests, I invite you to click here.

Second Cut: Hall-Worthy but not Top 10 in 2020

If the Hall of Fame offered its members a “binary ballot” (where they could choose “yes” or “no” without a limit of 10 names per year), a great many voters would have checked more than 10 in previous years. The 2020 ballot, however, is far less packed that those of 2013-19. I feel strongly about the first 9 names I checked on my virtual ballot. As for Manny Ramirez, I lean yes because he was a Hall of Fame talent but am of course troubled by the two failed drug tests.

There are two other players on this ballot for whom I would cast an affirmative vote if I were the sole decision-maker. If I’m on the fence, I choose “yes” over “no” because the Hall’s representation of players from 1950 and beyond is vastly lower than its representation from 1871-1949. I will say, however, that I am lukewarm on both of these candidates.

11. Andy Pettitte  – SP (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot)(10% in 2019)

• Yankees (1995-2003, ’07-’13), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 256-153 (.626 WL%), 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, 60.6 WAR
• Career postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA in 44 starts (won 5 championships)
• 3-time All-Star

Andy Pettitte is a guy who looked like a future Hall of Famer when watching him in the first three seasons of his career. In his sophomore campaign (1996), he was a 21-game winner (finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting) and a member of the World Champion New York Yankees. In 1997 the tall left-hander went 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA (good enough for a 156 OPS+ and 8.4 WAR).

The fact is, however, after 1997, Pettitte only had one season in which he was in the top 30 of all starting pitchers in WAR. That one season was 2005, with the Astros, when he went 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA (177 ERA+, 6.8 WAR). The timing of that great campaign was perfect; he helped Houston make the playoffs (barely) as the Wild Card team. The Astros subsequently won their first ever pennant.

Because the Yankees and Astros made the playoffs 14 times in his 18 MLB campaigns, Pettitte is the all-time postseason leader in games started (44) and thus, also leads in wins (19), innings (276.2) and strikeouts (183). His playoff ERA (3.81) mirrors almost precisely his regular season ERA (3.85).

If you put a gun to my head and made me the ultimate arbiter of Pettitte’s Cooperstown fate, I’d say “yes” but I’m not crazy about his case. Not being a top 30 in the majors in WAR for most of one’s career is not something that screams “Hall of Fame.”

If Pettitte had spent spent 16 years of his career with the Kansas City Royals instead of the New York Yankees, he wouldn’t be anywhere near the Hall of Fame. A “yes” for Pettitte is an acknowledgement that who gets into Cooperstown isn’t always fair, that playing for great teams helps. Anyway, Pettitte is still not in the top 10 for most of the voting members of the BBWAA. He’s tracking at just 11.1%, barely ahead of the 10% he earned a year ago.

12. Bobby Abreu – RF (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Astros (1996-97), Phillies (1998-2006), Yankees (2006-08), Angels (2009-2012), Dodgers (2012), Mets (2014)
• Career: .291 BA, .395 OBP, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI, 2,470 Hits, 400 SB, 128 OPS+, 60.0 WAR
• Career: 1,476 walks (20th most in Major League Baseball history)
• 2-time All-Star, 2004 Silver Slugger, 2005 Gold Glove Award winner

Bobby Abreu is on the BBWAA ballot for the first time in 2020 and is the ultimate sneaky-good candidate. Abreu had power and surprising speed for a big man, listed at 220 pounds on his Baseball Reference profile.

Abreu was durable; he’s the only player other than Willie Mays in the history of baseball to play in 150 or more games for 13 consecutive seasons (with the caveat that there are others who would have accomplished that feat if not for player strikes).

Abreu is also one of 14 players to achieve six different seasons with 100 walks and 100 runs scored. The other 13 are all in the Hall of Fame except for Barry Bonds.

Finally, Abreu is of 7 players with at least 250 HR and 350 SB, with Bonds, Derek Jeter, Rickey Henderson, Craig Biggio, Joe Morgan and Bobby Bonds, Barry’s father.

All of those “clubs” in which Abreu is a member give him a legitimate case for the Hall but, in fairness, he’s the weakest member of the groups in which I’ve listed him.

I’m on the fence about whether he crosses the bar and, clearly, most members of the BBWAA think that he doesn’t. Abreu is tracking at just 7.0% of the vote, putting him in danger of falling below 5% when the final votes are tallied, which would drop him from future ballots.

Other Very Good Players on the Ballot

These are all very good players but I’m personally not ready to call them Hall of Famers.

13. Billy Wagner  – RP (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (17% in 2018)

• Career: 422 Saves (86% success rate), 2.31 ERA, 187 ERA+, 27.8 WAR
• 7-time All-Star

Billy Wagner has some key things going for him. His career 2.31 ERA is the second best in the last 100 years to Rivera (for pitchers with a minimum of 750 innings pitched). Using the same minimum, his 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings are the best in the history of baseball. His career WHIP (walks + hits per 9 innings) is 0.998, second best in history to Hall of Famer Addie Joss.

So why is Wagner not in the Hall of Fame yet? The problem is the innings, as in only 903 pitched. Rivera threw 1,283.2 (to go with 652 saves). Trevor Hoffman threw 1,089.1 (along with 601 saves). Although the three closers were contemporaries, Wagner was much more of a “clean 9th inning” pitcher than the others (more details in this piece I updated earlier this month).

Here’s a troubling statistic I uncovered through some extensive research after re-posting my full-length piece: in the 81 times Wagner entered a save situation with runners on base, his ERA was 4.23. That mediocre number does not include the 38 out of 119 inherited runners that he allowed to cross home plate. So, including inherited runners, Wagner allowed 78 runners to score (in 83 innings) when he was tasked to be a “fireman” by squelching an existing rally.

There does appear to be momentum building for Wagner. He’s currently polling at 35.7% in the Hall of Fame tracker.

For me, I’d like to see if Wagner’s spectacular rate stats hold up over the next five years as Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman start to approach his career innings total.

14. Andruw Jones (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (7.5% in 2019)

• Braves (1996-’07), Dodgers (’08), Rangers (’09), White Sox (’10), Yankees (2011-12)
• Career: .254 BA, 434 HR, 1,289 RBI, 111 OPS+, 62.8 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove Award winner

On the surface, a center fielder with 10 Gold Gloves and over 400 home runs should be a Hall of Famer, right? Some people think so but not most of us. However, it looks like he has enough of a constituency (one that is growing) to stay on the ballot for his full 10 years. Jones is currently at an impressive 26.9% on the Thibodaux tracker, a vast improvement over his 7.5% tally in 2019.

Jones essentially had two careers, one in which he was a productive power hitter and a superb defensive center fielder for the Atlanta Braves. Then, after signing a free agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he put on weight and instantly became a below-average hitter and fielder. Within two years of winning his final Gold Glove with the Braves, Jones was a platoon designated hitter for the Texas Rangers.

• 1996-2007: 61.1 WAR (4th behind Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones)
• 2008-2012: 1.7 WAR (tied for 354th in MLB)

My biggest beef about the Andruw Jones Hall of Fame case is that you have to fully believe in his off-the-charts defensive metrics. As Bill James has noted, the metrics say that he was twice as good defensively as Willie Mays. For this and other reasons why I don’t think Jones deserves a plaque in the Hall of Fame, I invite you to take a look.

15. Omar Vizquel (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (43% in 2019)

• Mariners (1989-93), Indians (1994-2004), Giants (2005-08), Rangers (2009), White Sox (2010-11), Blue Jays (2012)
• Career: .272 BA, 80 HR, 951 RBI, 2,877 Hits, 82 OPS+, 45.6 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 11-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Highest fielding % of all-time for shortstops (min. 1,000 games)

Some people think Omar Vizquel was the second coming of Ozzie Smith. I don’t. He was an excellent fielder but all of the advanced metrics say that he wasn’t nearly as good as the 11 Gold Gloves indicate. In his 24-year career, only once did Vizquel receive even one MVP vote. Please click here for more details on why Omar falls short.

I have Omar one slot below Andruw here for the sole reason that, even though I’m suspicious of them, Jones has the defensive metrics to back up his Gold Gloves while Vizquel does not.

For the record, my opinion is not shared by a significant percentage of the BBWAA electorate. When a player has 43% of the voters in his corner in just his second year on the ballot, that indicates a likely Cooperstown call in the years that follow. Vizquel has made modest gains on the early reported vote on the tracker (he’s at 48.0%) but he’s one of the rare players who has out-performed his pre-election results with higher numbers among those who revealed their ballots after the vote announcement or chose to remain anonymous.

16. Sammy Sosa (8th year on the BBWAA ballot) (8.5% in 2019)

• Rangers (1989), White Sox (1989-91), Cubs (1992-2004), Orioles (2005), Rangers (2007)
• Career: .273 BA, 609 HR, 1,667 RBI, 128 OPS+, 58.6 WAR
• 1998 N.L. MVP, 7-time All-Star, 6-time Silver Slugger

Amazingly, despite the 609 home runs, Sammy Sosa’s 58.6 WAR is only the 13th highest on the 2020 BBWAA ballot. If you need an excuse not to put him in your top 10 that is not PED related, there it is.

I have Sammy ranked so low here because I believe the thing that makes him a potential Hall of Famer (all the home runs) lacks authenticity. Can you believe that, by the metrics that make up WAR, Sosa was a better defensive player than offensive player from 1995-97?

At the end of 1997 (his age 28 season), Sammy had 207 career home runs. Five years later, he had 499, which included three seasons of 60 or more. I used to feel strongly that Sosa’s home run surge was an outright fraud. After reading some fascinating research about the impact of steroids on home run totals I’ve softened that position somewhat but still can’t over the idea that his chief calling card was a chemical creation.

So, I’m still not in favor of Sosa for the Hall and feel that, given how poorly he’s done in the voting, a vote for him is a waste. Unlike Bonds and Clemens, Sosa didn’t have a “pre-PED” career that was remotely Hall of Fame worthy.

Best of the Rest

There are five other first-time Hall of Fame candidates that had really noteworthy careers but will be dumped from future ballots by finishing well shy of the 5% required to stick around for another year. Those five are Cliff Lee, Jason Giambi, Paul Konerko, Alfonso Soriano and Adam Dunn.

Lee was a fantastic pitcher for 3 of his 13 seasons (with a Cy Young Award in 2008) but, with 143 wins and a 42.8 WAR, didn’t have the volume to merit serious consideration for the Hall of Fame.

Giambi was one of the best hitters in baseball from 1998 to 2008, a really solid 11-year period that included the 2000 A.L. MVP. During those 11 years, among player with at least 3,000 plate appearances, Giambi’s 153 OPS+ was fourth best to only Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez. That’s a strong Cooperstown credential. Unfortunately, Giambi is an admitted PED user and his career totals (440 HR, 1,441 RBI) fall short of the standards for first basemen or designated hitters over the last couple of decades.

What’s interesting about Giambi, Konerko, Soriano and Dunn is that they’re all members of the 400+ home run club. There was a time in the not so recent past when 400 or more home runs virtually guaranteed a Cooperstown plaque. As recently as the end of the 1985 season, there were only 20 members of the 400 HR club; all 20 already were or eventually would be in the Hall of Fame.

It wasn’t until Dave Kingman passed the 400-HR mark in 1985 that a player unworthy of Cooperstown had passed that milestone. Darrell Evans passed the mark in 1988. He never made the Hall of Fame either but, unlike Kingman, Evans has a terrific case for enshrinement.

Anyway, it wasn’t until 1998 that another non-Hall of Famer reached 400 taters. That was the year Barry Bonds eclipsed the milestone.

Today there are a whopping 57 members of the 400 home run club, including 9 on the 2020 BBWAA ballot. 26 of those 57 are not in the Hall of Fame and more than half of those 26 never will be.

Looking Ahead to 2021

At this point we know for certain that Derek Jeter and Larry Walker will no longer be on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2021, with Walker either in the Hall or having exhausted his 10 years of eligibility. Of the other 14 players I put in my top 16, all but one of them are certain to return to the ballot in 2020. As noted previously, the one who is “on the bubble” to surpass 5% of the vote is Bobby Abreu. It’s possible but unlikely that Schilling will also be off the ballot as a 2020 inductee.

On the 2021 ballot, there are no obvious first-ballot Hall of Famers, the first time this has happened since 2012, when the top new candidate was Bernie Williams. The top three first-timers in 2021 are pitchers Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle and outfielder Torii Hunter. All three men had fine careers but none look like serious Cooperstown candidates. It’s possible that one or more of them will make it to 5% next year but only because of the relative weakness of the overall ballot compared to recent years. Assuming that Curt Schilling doesn’t make it this year, I would predict that he crosses the finish line in ’21.

So, here is theoretically what my 2021 virtual ballot would look like:

1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Curt Schilling
4. Jeff Kent
5. Scott Rolen
6. Gary Sheffield
7. Todd Helton
8. Manny Ramirez
9. Andy Pettitte
10. Bobby Abreu or Billy Wagner or Andruw Jones or Omar Vizquel or nobody

Clearly, we can see how the road is starting to clear for some of the candidates languishing at the bottom of the current ballot. I’m not a supporter of any of the candidates I’ve put in the #10 spot but I might change my mind. Regardless, the latter three players already have advocates. Vizquel in particular has a chance to make it into the Hall sooner rather than later thanks to the less clogged ballot.

The 2022 ballot

The 2022 BBWAA ballot will be a fascinating one. It’s the final year of eligibility for Bonds, Clemens and Sosa and the first year of eligibility of Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz. Are there a bunch of writers who have been voting “no” for Bonds and Clemens just to make them wait the full 10 years? How will A-Rod do? He’s clearly in the “all-time great” category of Bonds and Clemens but has the significant blemish of serving a one year suspension for using Performing Enhancing Drugs.

As for Ortiz, he was named in a New York Times report about a failed 2003 “survey test” but Commissioner Rob Manfred has in essence given Big Papi a pass. He told reporters that there were at least 10 questionable samples and, since no penalties were in place at the time, no due diligence was done to verify the veracity of the results.

There are three other solid Cooperstown candidates coming to the ballot in 2022: Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, and Joe Nathan. To me, none of the three are Hall of Fame material but they will all likely have their advocates.

Assuming that Schilling is already in the Hall, here is tentatively what my virtual ballot would look like:

1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. David Ortiz
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Jeff Kent
6. Scott Rolen
7. Gary Sheffield
8. Todd Helton
9. Manny Ramirez
10. Andy Pettitte

2023 & 2024

In 2023, there’s only one viable new candidate on the ballot. It’s Carlos Beltran, who I have long felt is a Hall of Famer but is now severely tainted by his prominent role in the recently revealed scandal of sign-stealing by the Houston Astros.

Finally, looking ahead to 2024, there’s a slam-dunk first-ballot Hall of Famer in Adrian Beltre plus three other solid candidates: Joe Mauer, Chase Utley and David Wright. In my opinion, Mauer is a likely and deserved Cooperstown inductee. Utley will be a sabermetric favorite while Wright will fall short because of his injury-shortened career.

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