Cooperstown not yet Thrilled about Will Clark

Will Clark, first baseman for the Giants, Rangers, Orioles and Cardinals from 1986-2000, is eligible for a second chance at the Hall of Fame via the “Today’s Game” ballot. Will the Thrill, a sweet-swinging left-handed hitter, had the look of a future Hall of Famer from his college years to his early years in Major League Baseball.

Ultimately, however, Clark retired at the age of 36 while still a productive hitter and fell short of the benchmark numbers that one would expect from a Hall of Fame first sacker. Clark only lasted one year on the writers’ ballot for the Hall of Fame but now has another opportunity.

The Today’s Game Committee is the modern version of what was known for a long time as the Veterans Committee. A panel of 16 media members, executives and Hall of Famers will examine the Cooperstown resumes for 10 candidates. The other nine men on the ballot are players Albert Belle, Joe Carter, Harold Baines, Orel Hershiser and Lee Smith, managers Lou Piniella, Davey Johnson and Charlie Manuel and the late George Steinbrenner, the longtime owner of the New York Yankees.

This is the second time Clark has been on the Today’s Game Ballot. Two years ago, his candidacy didn’t get any reported support. However, given that this is a relatively weak ballot, this might be his best chance at a Hall of Fame plaque. Among the six eligible players, Clark’s career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is the highest.

Cooperstown Cred: Will Clark

• Career: .303 BA, .384 OBP, .497 SLG, 284 HR, 1,205 RBI, 2,176 Hits
• Career: 137 OPS+, 56.5 WAR
• Four times in top 5 of N.L. MVP voting between 1987 and 1991
• 6-time All-Star
• 2-time Silver Slugger
• Won 1991 N.L. Gold Glove
• 1989 NLCS MVP with Giants (.650 BA, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 1.882 OPS)
• Career postseason: 132 PA, .333 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI, .956 OPS

(cover photo: CBS San Francisco)

Will Clark: Before the Giants

William Nuschler Clark was born on March 13, 1964 in New Orleans, Louisiana. A star player at Jesuit High School, Clark was drafted in the 4th round of the 1982 draft by the Kansas City Royals but instead decided to enroll at Mississippi State University.

At MSU, Clark was a part of a star-studded team that included four future All-Stars, including outfielder Rafael Palmeiro and pitchers Bobby Thigpen and Jeff Brantley. Clark and Palmeiro were known as “Thunder and Lightning,” Clark remains the all-time batting average leader for the Bulldogs, having hit at a .391 clip in three years. In his senior year, Clark hit .420 with a .539 on-base percentage and a .853 slugging percentage.

While at MSU, Clark was a part of the 1984 U.S. Olympic team, along with Mark McGwire (then a third baseman and pitcher) and future Hall of Fame shortstop Barry Larkin.

He had the sweetest swing that anyone had ever seen, an uppercut with a long, loopy follow-through that made it seem as if he were wielding a buggy whip instead of a 32-ounce bat.

— E.M. Swift, Sports Illustrated (May 28, 1990)

Quick Path to the Majors

Will Clark was the #2 overall pick (by the San Francisco Giants) in the 1985 draft, behind future teammate B.J. Surhoff. The first round of the ’85 draft produced 20 future Major League Players, including Larkin (4th overall), Barry Bonds (6th overall) and Palmeiro (22nd overall).

After just one partial year in the minors, manager Roger Craig installed Clark as the Giants’ Opening Day first baseman in 1986. As Richard Cuicchi wrote in his SABR bio, “there may have never been a more prepared baseball player to enter the professional ranks than Will Clark.”

Clark made his MLB debut on Opening Day against the Houston Astros in the Astrodome. As if scripted in a Hollywood movie, Clark’s first swing in the majors produced a home run off future Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan. After his first 18 games, Will the Thrill was hitting .338.

Is it any surprise that the left-handed hitting Clark was soon dubbed “The Natural?” The nickname was an homage to the Robert Redford character (Roy Hobbs) in the movie of the same name released just two years earlier.

Clark’s Hollywood story wasn’t without its bumps on the road. In the final 93 games of his rookie campaign, Clark posted a mediocre OPS of .752 with just 8 home runs and 34 RBI. His season and statistics were significantly impacted by a collision with Montreal Expos first baseman Andres Galarraga, causing a hyper-extended elbow that kept him on the disabled list for nearly two months.

Still, the rookie campaign was good enough for a 5th place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting.

1987-1989: One of the Best Players in Baseball

Will Clark got off to a fast start in 1987 but then fell into a 28-game slump in which he hit just .221 with a .702 OPS. Starting with a pinch-hit triple on May 23rd, Clark went on a 35-game tear in which he hit .378 with a 1.080 OPS. In the middle of the summer, Clark hit 10 home runs in a span of 17 games.

Clark  finished the ’87 campaign with 35 HR, 91 RBI and a robust 152 OPS+, which was good enough to lead the Giants to the N.L. West title and earn him a 5th place finish in the N.L. MVP vote. Clark hit .360 in the NLCS but the Giants fell in 7 games to the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Thrill upped his game in 1988. He hit 29 HR with a NL-best 109 RBI and 100 walks. Although his BA and SLG slipped from ’87, his OPS+ was still a healthy 160. Clark earned the first of five consecutive All-Star berths (four of them as the starter) and once again finished 5th in the MVP vote.

1989 was a career year for Clark. He hit .333 while driving in 111 runs and scoring 104, barely losing the batting title to Tony Gwynn.

Clark’s OPS+ was 175, his WAR 8.6 (both career highs). If not for teammate Kevin Mitchell‘s 47 HR and 125 RBI, Clark would have been the league MVP. The dynamic duo (dubbed the “Pacific Sock Exchange”) led the Giants back to the post-season.

From 1987-’89, Clark led all major league hitters with a .544 slugging% and a 163 ballpark-adjusted OPS+.

1989 Post-Season

Will Clark, now 25 years old, was already a star when the 1989 NLCS began but his 5-game performance against the Chicago Cubs elevated his stardom to the next level. In Game 1, Clark hit two home runs (including a grand slam) off future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux, part of a 6-RBI performance. Maddux, only 23 years old, wasn’t quite the megastar he would later become but was still third best in the ’89 N.L. Cy Young vote.

In Game 5, with the Giants up 3 Games to 1, Clark came to the plate in the bottom of the 8th with the bases loaded and 2 outs in a 1-1 tie. Cubs manager Don Zimmer brought in lefty Mitch Williams (the “Wild Thing”) to face the lefty Clark. As told by E.M. Swift in Sports Illustrated…

As Wild Thing finished his warmup tosses, Mitchell said, “We got a job to do, let’s do it.”

“It’s done,” Clark replied.

Mitchell, recalling the moment, says, “Then he got that sneer on his face, that Clint Eastwood look of his, and I thought, I’ve seen that same movie. Once he said it was done, I knew it was done.”

— E.M. Swift, Sports Illustrated (May 28, 1990)

Clark delivered with a two-run single up the middle to give the Giants a 3-1 lead and, ultimately, the pennant. Clark was named MVP of the NLCS, having hit .650 with a 1.200 slugging percentage and 1.882 OPS.

The Giants advanced to face the Oakland Athletics in the first Bay Area World Series. The matchup included a reunion of former Olympic teammates Clark and McGwire,

This Fall Classic, however, was interrupted by the 7.1 magnitude Loma Prieta earthquake just prior to Game 3 at Candlestick Park, delaying the series for 12 days. The A’s ultimately swept the Giants in 4 games, with Clark held to a .607 OPS with no RBI.

Final Four Years in San Francisco (1990-1993)

Overall, Will Clark’s three-year stretch of brilliant play earned him a four-year, $15 million contract, which at the time made him MLB’s highest paid player.

“Will Clark is the premier player in the game and he earns every cent. He plays like a Hall of Famer, and he should be paid like one.”

— Al Rosen, Giants General Manager (told to the Sporting News, reported in Clark’s SABR Bio)

Although he would never approach the level of play that he showed in 1989, Clark remained a consistent presence in the Giants lineup for the next four seasons. Bothered by an ailment in his left foot, he still drove in 95 runs in what was otherwise an off-year in 1990 (125 OPS+).

1991 was another Hall of Fame caliber season for The Thrill. He hit .301 with 29 HR, 116 RBI, a 153 OPS+ and led the N.L. with a .536 slugging% while earning his first Gold Glove Award.

Clark posted another robust OPS+ (148) in 1992 but his power production dipped (16 HR, 73 RBI, both lows since his rookie season).

New Faces in 1993

In 1993, the Giants welcomed a new team owner (Peter Magowan), a new manager (Dusty Baker) and a new superstar, two-time MVP Barry Bonds, who was signed to free-agent contract. Bonds made an instant impact in San Francisco, leading the N.L. in HR, RBI, OBP, SLG and OPS+.

Clark, relegated to a supporting role, had arguably the worst season of his career. He hit just .283 with 14 HR, 73 RBI and a then-career worst 118 OPS+.

In the 1993 season, the last before the creation of the Wild Card system, the Giants went 103-59 but fell one game shy of the N.L .West title to the 104-win Atlanta Braves.

Clark missed 30 games due to multiple injuries, including a crucial two-week stretch when the team was in the midst of an eight-game losing streak. Clark’s WAR (1.5) was the worst of his career and dwarfed by Bonds’ 9.9.

Clark, now a free agent, wanted to stay in San Francisco but the Giants low-balled him in contract negotiations. Ultimately, he signed a five-year, $30 million with the Texas Rangers. Adding soap opera drama to the story, Clark was replacing his former Mississippi State teammate Palmeiro as the Rangers first sacker. Palmeiro was bitter at Clark and would harbor ill feelings towards his former college teammate for over two decades.

Texas Rangers: 1994-1998

Will Clark rediscovered something close to his peak form in 1994, posting a slash line of .329/.431/.501. In the strike-shortened season, Clark’s power numbers were still a little down (13 home runs) but he drove in 80 runs in just 110 games and posted a 141 OPS+. He returned to the All-Star Game and (by WAR) was the Rangers’ best player.

From 1995 to 1997, bothered by multiple injuries, Clark averaged just 117 games played per season. He hit .303 but averaged just 14 HR, 72 RBI and a 117 OPS+ for those three lackluster campaigns.

In 1998, healthy again, Clark played in 149 games. He hit 23 HR with 102 RBI and a 128 OPS+.

The Rangers made the playoffs twice during Clark’s five seasons in Texas (1996 and 1998) but were beaten both times in the ALDS by the New York Yankees. Clark was unable to rediscover his postseason glory. In 31 plate appearances, he hit .111 (with a .337 OPS) with no extra base hits and no RBI.

Final Two Seasons in Baltimore and St. Louis: 1999-2000

The soap opera saga of Will Clark and Rafael Palmeiro continued after the 1998 campaign. The Rangers released Clark and re-signed Palmeiro, who had spent the previous five seasons with the Baltimore Orioles. As Palmeiro replaced Clark in Texas, Clark did the same by signing with the O’s.

Clark missed more than half of the ’99 season in Baltimore with injuries. He hit .303 but with only 10 HR and 29 RBI in 294 plate appearances.

In 2000, Clark stayed healthy but his power production was still down. In 79 games (310 PA), he was hitting .301 but had just 9 HR and 28 RBI. On July 31st, Clark was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals, who needed a first baseman to fill in while Mark McGwire was on the disabled list.

Big Mac, Clark’s first base counterpart in the Bay Area in the late ’80’s and early ’90’s, had become the biggest star in the game, thanks to 70 home runs in 1998 and another 65 in 1999. A knee injury, however, had put him on the disabled list on July 6 and limited him to pinch-hitting duties upon his return in September.

Clark’s return to the N.L. somehow rejuvenated the 36-year old veteran. In 51 games (just 197 PA), he hit 12 HR with 42 RBI while hitting .345 with a 167 OPS+.

The Redbirds won the N.L. Central and breezed through the NLDS with a 3-game sweep over the Atlanta Braves. In Game 2, Clark hit a 3-run home run off future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine to pace the Cards to a 10-4 win.

In the NLCS, Clark hit .412 with a 1.206 OPS but the Cardinals fell in 5 games to the New York Mets. Clark’s offensive output included a solo home run in Game 4 in what would turn out to be the final longball of his 15-year career.

Retirement at the age of 36

Will Clark, at the age of 36, decided to retire after the 2000 season, despite displaying that he had plenty of hits left in his bat. Between Baltimore and St. Louis, Clark’s OPS+ was 145, good enough for 22nd best among the 166 players who logged at least 500 plate appearances.

Still, Clark chose to walk away from the game, choosing to spend more time with his wife and two children, especially his young son Trey, who had developed a form of autism.

Clark retired with a .303 batting average, 284 home runs, 1,205 RBI, and 2,176 hits. Using advanced metrics, his career ended with a solid 137 OPS+ and 56.5 WAR.

For a first baseman who played in the super-charged 1990’s, however, those numbers weren’t very compelling. When it came time to hit the BBWAA ballot in 2006, Clark got just 4.4% of the vote. With a vote total below the 5% minimum threshold, Clark was excluded from all future BBWAA ballots.

The Hall of Fame Case for and Against Will Clark

Because he retired early, Will Clark lacks the career counting statistics that one normally would expect from a Hall of Famer, in particular a Hall of Fame first baseman. Of the 13 Cooperstown-enshrined first basemen to debut in the majors in the last 100 years, only two (Bill Terry and Jim Bottomley) have fewer than Clark’s 284 career home runs. Terry is also the only first sacker with fewer than Clark’s 1,205 RBI.

Only Johnny Mize and Hank Greenberg have fewer than Clark’s 2,176 hits. Those two made up for it with well over 300 home runs and slugging percentages over .550.

If you want to find some good news, Clark’s career .497 SLG is better than the number posted by Eddie Murray and Tony Perez. His .303 career BA is superior to the BA of Murray, Perez, Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Orlando Cepeda, Willie McCovey and Jim Thome.

The Elevator Pitch

When assessing the Hall of Fame case for candidate, it’s a useful exercise to ask yourself, “what’s the elevator pitch?” If you have 30 to 60 seconds to make a case for a player, what’s the case? Here’s my best 30 second bullet point pitch for Will Clark.

• Career .303 hitter (plus hit .333 in the postseason)
• 5-time All-Star
• Highest OPS+ in baseball from 1987-1991
• Top 5 in the N.L. MVP voting in 4 of those 5 years
• 15 straight years with a OPS+ of 100 or better & 1.5 WAR or better (rolodex this one in your brain)

That’s pretty good but it doesn’t blow you away. Compare to the one or two bullet elevator pitches for each of the other 5 players on the Today’s Game ballot:

Elevator Pitch for each of the other Today’s Game Candidates

Orel Hershiser: Won 1988 N.L. Cy Young plus LCS and World Series MVP’s. 59 consecutive scoreless innings streak is longest in MLB history.

Lee Smith: third most saves all-time with 478.

Harold Baines: the only eligible player with over 2,800 hits and 1,600 RBI who isn’t in the Hall except for Barry Bonds & Rafael Palmeiro.

Joe Carter: 10 seasons of 20+ HR and 100+ RBI. Led all MLB in RBI for five different ten-year periods of time. Won the 1993 World Series with walk-off home run.

Albert Belle: one of 11 players in MLB history to post 9 consecutive seasons of 100+ RBI. Has the 12th best career slugging percentage ever.

Of the five other players, Carter has perhaps the best elevator pitch but he’s the weakest candidate. Carter rarely drew a walk, he struck out a lot, and was a sub-par defensive player. His career WAR of 19.6 would be the second worst in the history of the Hall.

The Consistency of Will Clark

Will Clark has a higher career WAR than all of the others but its based on less noticeable things such as the ability to draw a walk or avoid the double play. That doesn’t sell in 30 seconds. When I shared five bullet points, the last one was that Clark had 15 straight years with a OPS+ of 100 or better with a WAR of 1.5 or better. That doesn’t sound very sexy but it’s actually a pretty neat accomplishment.

Most players, even the best Hall of Famers, have seasons at the beginning or end of their careers where they provide no value or even negative value. Even when he wasn’t at his best, Will Clark added value to his team. The only other first basemen since 1901 (the modern game) to post a WAR of 1.5 and a OPS+ of 100 for 15 seasons are Thomas, Murray and Palmeiro.

The difference is that the other three all played for longer than Clark and had a couple of sub-par campaigns at the beginning or the end.

OK, 15 straight productive seasons is nice but you can’t call it something worthy of the Hall of Fame by itself.

Clark’s Thrilling Peak (1987-1992):

As we detailed earlier, Will Clark looked like a Hall of Famer from the early days of his career. After his rookie season, he was one of the top hitters in baseball for a six-year period of time. During those six years, as we’ve documented, he finished in the top 5 of the MVP voting 4 times.

Here’s how Clark ranked in various statistical categories among the 76 players who compiled at least 3,000 plate appearances.

Two statistics you might not be familiar with. RC = Runs Created (an advanced formula on Baseball Reference).

RBat = the batting component that goes into WAR. RBat doesn’t adjust for positions and doesn’t include base-running. It’s for hitting only.

WP Table Builder

Part of what makes it difficult to make a tangible case for Clark is that he excelled many aspects of the game but wasn’t the best at any of them. He drove in a lot of runs, but fewer than Joe Carter, George Bell and Ruben Sierra.

For these six years, Clark had the 7th highest BA, 13th best OBP and 3rd best SLG. By being up high in all three rate stats, however, his adjusted OPS+ was tied for the 2nd best in all of MLB for those six years. Other advanced metrics (Runs Created and WAR Runs from Batting) put him third.

Clark is “only” 7th in WAR during his six best years but he was behind six Hall of Famers and Bonds. Four of the five Hall of Famers Clark was behind were first ballot selections. The three players directly behind Clark on the 1987-’92 WAR list are Kirby Puckett, Paul Molitor and Barry Larkin, all first ballot Hall of Famers as well and all far before their declining years.

The Candlestick Factor

During Will Clark’s eight years in the City by the Bay, Candlestick Park was on average about 7% tougher for hitters than the average MLB ballpark, according to Baseball Reference. So the question here is how much the Stick depressed Clark’s basic stats such as his batting average, home runs and RBI. Clark recently told Graham Womack of The Sporting News that Candlestick was a big impediment:

“The wind switched around all the time. One minute it was blowing in from left, the other it was blowing in from right. One minute, it’s blowing out to right-center. Playing in Candlestick, it didn’t matter if you had a golf ball out there. When that wind was going, you better hit it good, and you better hit it on a line. Otherwise it ain’t going nowhere.”

— Will Clark, The Sporting News (October 12, 2016)

In the article, Clark went on to estimate that Candlestick cost him “eight to 10 home runs a year and at least 20 to 25 RBIs a year.”

So, here are Clark’s home-road splits for his eight years in San Francisco:

WP Table Builder

It’s true that most players and teams hit better at home than on the road but it’s hard to see the evidence here that Clark lost 8 to 10 homers and 20 to 25 RBI a year.

Is Six Years Enough?

This is an important question, one that comes up with a lot of peak performance cases with respect to the Hall of Fame. Will Clark’s peak lasted for six years. The worst season of his career was in 1993, after his ’87-’92 run of brilliance.

When I wrote about why I feel Orel Hershiser belongs in he Hall of Fame, the chief argument was that he was one of the most dominant starting pitchers from 1984-1989, a six-year peak.

Normally, I’m inclined to argue that seven years of dominance is the minimum needed for the Hall of Fame peak. Hershiser, I felt, was a special case because of his historic September/October stretch run in 1988 and his role in helping the 1995 Indians to the World Series.

For Clark, the peak I shared is also six years. Does he have enough of a case beyond those six years to justify a Hall of Fame plaque?

How Clark’s Numbers Look from 1993-2000

If Will Clark’s six best years put him close to the Hall of Fame, did he do enough for the final 9 years of his career to push him over the edge? On this chart, I’m going to show Clark’s numbers from 1993-2000 and his ranks among all MLB players and then how he ranks among first basemen (minimum 50% games played at first and 3,000 PA).

To avoid excessive reader eye strain, I’ve only listed “notable” first basemen that Clark is behind in this statistical categories. I did not list Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Mark McGwire or Rafael Palmeiro. The first two have Cooperstown plaques already; the latter two would have them too if not for their PED links.

WP Table Builder

This is not very good. It’s not unusual for Hall of Fame players to rank in the middle of the pack at their position for a long period of time at the back end of their career but usually, in the process, that player is reaching milestone numbers along the way.

To make a Cooperstown case for Clark, it must rest on his six-year peak and the not so exciting fact stated earlier that he had a 15-year career in which he was always productive if not always great.

First Base: Star-Studded Position

One of the biggest problems for Will Clark is that he played at a position that is littered with big bats over the last three decades. In the preceding graphic, you may have noticed many mentions of the names McGriff, Carlos Delgado, John Olerud, and Mark Grace, all star first sackers in the 1990’s. As noted, there’s also Thomas, Bagwell, McGwire and Palmeiro.

Also, let’s not forget Jim Thome, inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2018. The only reason he didn’t make the lists above is because he played third base until 1997.

That’s a total of 10 names, 5 of whom are already in the Hall or would be if not for PEDs. So, how does Clark compare to the other four?

WP Table Builder

Now look at the sabermetric numbers, adding two from Fan Graphs (their version of WAR and Weighted Runs Created Plus, their version of OPS+):

WP Table Builder

All of these first basemen have been drummed off the BBWAA ballot except for McGriff, who is in his 10th and final year of eligibility this year.

I think, by the numbers, it’s fairly safe to say that Grace falls short of the other four. Olerud tops both bWAR and fWAR thanks to superior defensive metrics. McGriff and Delgado are the home run and slugging stars but hurt (especially Delgado) by poor defensive numbers.

Where does Clark fit in? He seems to be in the “great hitter, a little soft on power, adequate fielder, decent base-runner” bucket. Not shown due to space, Clark’s base-running metrics are the best of the bunch but they are not a Cooperstown credential.

Conclusion

“I think in certain regards, I’m a Hall of Famer. I’m a career .300 hitter. You don’t do that by accident and especially hitting in the ballpark that I hit in. And then 1,200 RBIs, and most of my RBIs tied up the ballgame or put us ahead. They were clutch RBIs. I’m not one of those guys that drove in a lot of runs when it was 8-0.”

— Will Clark, The Sporting News (October 12, 2016)

We’ve already seen that Clark hit better at Candlestick Park than on the road. He may be exaggerating about the clutch RBI but it is true that, on his Baseball Reference splits, his weakest productivity came in games in which the margin was four runs or more.

Because I’m a “Big Hall” guy who believes that the players of the last half of the 20th century are woefully underrepresented in Cooperstown, I like to search for reasons that a player should be in the Hall of Fame, not why they shouldn’t. 

Having said that, I have a hard time finding a compelling reason to put Will Clark in the Hall of Fame. I still don’t have a top-flight “elevator pitch” for Clark and, when trying to convince 12 out of 16 people to vote “yes,” that’s a lot more important than you might think.

WAR puts Clark ahead of two inductees who played in the 1960’s and 1970’s (Orlando Cepeda and Tony Perez) but the Baby Bull and Big Dog had other accomplishments to their credit besides having each hit well over 300 home runs. Cepeda won a MVP and World Series. Perez was a key cog in two World Championship teams.

If Clark is going to make it through the Today’s Game Committee, this will certainly be his best chance. The next time players from 1988 and beyond will be considered is in December 2021, for the Class of 2022. At that time, it’s a near certainty that McGriff will be on the ballot and, despite a lower WAR, he’s a much more compelling candidate due to his longevity. I invite you to read about why The Crime Dog belongs in Cooperstown by clicking here.

Will Clark looked like a Hall of Famer in his early years. He was the Thrill, The Natural. Those glory years just didn’t last long enough.

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