Craig Kimbrel’s Progress Towards the Hall of Fame

Craig Kimbrel, in 2018, became the youngest pitcher ever to accumulate 300 career saves. He made his 7th All-Star team in his 8th full MLB season. Despite several shaky performances, he saved 6 games in the postseason, helping the Boston Red Sox to their 4th World Series title of the young century. And yet, despite all of his accomplishments, until a couple of days ago Craig Kimbrel was unemployed. After missing over a third of the season, Kimbrel was signed on Wednesday by the Chicago Cubs to a 3-year deal worth about $45 million.

Kimbrel, arguably the best closer of his generation, had entered the 2018-19 off-season as a free agent with designs on being the game’s first $100 million relief pitcher. During the 2016-17 off-season, Aroldis Chapman was inked to a five-year, $86 million deal by the New York Yankees while the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Kenley Jansen to a five-year, $80 million contract. Given those contracts, was it unreasonable for Kimbrel and his agent to hope for 5 or 6 years and $100 million?

It turned out that, yes, it was unreasonable. While both Chapman and Jansen have remained effective, they have both slipped slightly from the form they had shown prior to signing their big contracts. In addition, teams clearly noticed Kimbrel’s ERA of 4.57 in the second half of 2018 and his uneven postseason performance (9 hits and 8 walks in 10.2 innings, yielding a 5.91 ERA). Finally, because the Red Sox extended Kimbrel a qualifying offer, no other team could sign him without surrendering a top draft pick.

Anyway, once the annual amateur player draft was completed on Wednesday, Cubs General Manager Theo Epstein was able to sign the right-handed stopper without surrendering a draft choice. After a stint in the minor leagues, Kimbrel will call Wrigley Field his home in search of another World Series ring.

Kimbrel’s career ERA of 1.91 is the 3rd best in MLB history for any pitcher with at least 500 innings pitched (the best overall since 1917). His 212 ERA+, which is adjusted for ballpark effects and overall pitching-friendliness of the era in which pitchers toiled, is the best in MLB history. Along the way, opponents have hit just .155 against him, which is the best ever for any pitcher with that same minimum standard.

The question of this piece is whether the Cubs have signed a future Hall of Famer. Kimbrel is still relatively young, having turned 31 less than two weeks ago. As we’ll see, in the history of relief pitching, nobody has accomplished more before his 31st birthday than Craig Kimbrel, and it isn’t close. The righty has the stats, the distinctive style, high-velocity heat and, most importantly, the facial hair of a future Cooperstown enshrined closer.

This is an updated version of a piece originally posted in May, 2018 after Kimbrel collected his 300th save.

Cooperstown Cred: Craig Kimbrel (RP)

• Atlanta Braves (2010-14), San Diego Padres (2015), Boston Red Sox (2016-18), Chicago Cubs (2019)
• Career: 333 Saves, 34 Blown Saves (91%)
• Career: 1.91 ERA, 212 ERA+ 0.920 WHIP, 14.7 SO/9
• 2011 Rookie of the Year with Atlanta Braves
• 7-time All-Star
• 5 times in Top 10 of Cy Young Award Voting

(Cover Photo: Chicago Tribune)

Craig Kimbrel’s Early Years

Craig Kimbrel was a 3rd round draft pick of the Atlanta Braves in June 2008 and, less than 2 years later, he was in the Major Leagues.

In 2010, the Braves had an established closer, flame-throwing lefty Billy Wagner, who turned 39 years during the season. This would be Wagner’s final season and he went out in style, saving 37 games with a career-best 1.43 ERA.

Kimbrel picked up his first MLB save on Sunday, September 19th against the New York Mets, the beneficiary of Wagner having closed the previous two games and needing a day off. In 20.2 innings in that “pre-rookie” year, Kimbrel struck out 40 batters while posting a 0.44 ERA.

At the age of 22, Kimbrel became the team’s designated closer the following spring. In his official rookie year (2012), Kimbrel saved a NL-leading 46 games with a 2.10 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 77 innings. For this he was the league’s Rookie of the Year.

The Historic 2012-2014 Campaigns

What Craig Kimbrel did next, from 2012-2014, was establish a 3-run of closing dominance never previously authored or repeated in the history of the game.

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Kimbrel became the first relief pitcher in history to pitch at least 60 innings, post an ERA under 2.00 and strike out more than 12 batters per 9 innings for three seasons in a row. In fact, he became the first closer to do this in three separate seasons period.

To this day, Kimbrel is the only relief pitcher to post two seasons with an ERA under 1.25 and at least 12 SO/9.

In February 2014, the Braves locked up their young closer with a 4-year, $42 million contract (with a a club option for a 5th year at $13 million). With the team in rebuilding mode, however, the Braves traded Kimbrel to the San Diego Padres right before Opening Day 2015.

A Year in San Diego

In the 2014-15 off-season, the San Diego Padres new General Manager A.J. Preller went on a trading spree reminiscent of a former Padres G.M., “Trader” Jack McKeon.

Preller traded for outfielders Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, catcher Derek Norris and signed pitcher James Shields as a free agent. Kimbrel was meant to be the final piece for a playoff run.

It didn’t quite work out for the ’15 Pads. Manager Bud Black was fired after 65 games and the team finished 74-88. Whether it was the normal “new team” jitters or the unexpected move to the West Coast for the Alabama-born Kimbrel, the beginning of the season was a struggle for the previously untouchable closer.

After a solid first six games (4 saves, no runs allowed), Kimbrel had the roughest patch of his career. In an 9-game stretch, he gave up 9 runs in 7.2 innings (for a 10.57 ERA). Even so, he saved 6 games with 1 blown save and one extra inning loss during that brief blemish. Kimbrel reverted to his normal form for the rest of the year, posting a 1.58 ERA in his final 46 appearances.

Craig Kimbrel in Boston

Kimbrel, after a disappointing year in San Diego, was traded to the Boston Red Sox in the 2015-16 off-season. As it was with the Padres, Kimbrel got off to an uneven start with his new team.

In his first 10 games, he had a blown save, a loss and a game in which he entered with a tie score, the bases loaded and allowed all three runners to score. His ERA was 5.00.

Overall, Kimbrel finished the 2016 campaign with 31 saves, with only 2 blown saves a career-high 6 losses and a career-worst 3.40 ERA, thanks to a pair of blow-up games in which he yielded 4 earned runs in each.

The 2017 version of Kimbrel was vintage: 5 wins, 0 losses, 35 saves with 4 blown. His ERA was 1.43, his third campaign with an ERA under 1.50. He struck out 126 batters (one shy of his career-best) in 69 innings.

To start the 2018 season, the Red Sox closer saved 9 out of 10 contests while putting up a 1.23 ERA, with the 9th save being one of great historic significance.

300th Career Save

On May 5th, 2018 in Arlington, Texas, Kimbrel saved the 300th game of his 9-year Major League Baseball career. Of all pitchers in the history of the game, Kimbrel became the fastest to that magic number, reaching the milestone in his 494th career game.

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As you can see, not only was Kimbrel significantly ahead of the games pitched pace set by others but he did it in much greater style, with an ERA more than half a run lower than anyone else on the list.

Also, take a look also at how much younger Kimbrel was when reaching the 300-save plateau compared to other top relief aces in baseball history.

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This is rather dramatic. In terms of age, Kimbrel got to #300 more than 18 months ahead of the second place pitcher on this list, Francisco Rodriguez. Also, he’s nearly 4 years ahead of Hoffman and more than 4 years ahead of Rivera.

On this list, Huston Street is only 35 years old but retired in the spring of 2018 after two years of battling injuries. Francisco Rodriguez, still just 37 years old, hasn’t had a big league job since 2017, when he posted a 7.82 ERA in 25.1 innings with the Detroit Tigers. Jonathan Papelbon, 38 years old, isn’t officially retired but hasn’t pitched since 2016.

2nd Half and Postseason Struggles

After collecting his 300th save, Craig Kimbrel successfully converted 24 of his next 25 save opportunities, posting an excellent 2.17 ERA along the way. Starting on July 27th, however, Craig started struggling with his control. After walking 16 batters in his first 42.2 innings, he finished the season with 23 bases on balls issued in 30.1 innings (including the postseason).

Kimbrel blew 3 of his last 13 save opportunities during the regular season, posting a 4.58 ERA in the process. The start of postseason was a true rollercoaster. In his first four games, he managed to convert four consecutive saves but only managed that because he was bequeathed leads of 2 or 3 runs each time. Each of those four games was a high-wire act, with 2 appearances against the New York Yankees (in the ALDS) and his first two against the Houston Astros (in the ALCS). Without a brilliant catch by left fielder Andrew Benintendi, Game 4 of the ALCS would have been a loss instead of a win.

It turned out that Kimbrel was tipping his pitches and, once aware of that flaw, he was not scored upon in his next four outings, which included a 3-out save to finish off the Astros in Game 5 of the ALCS.

In Craig’s final appearance of the postseason, Game 4 of the World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, he gave a two-run home run to Kike Hernandez but he had entered the game with a 5-run lead and closed out the game without further incident. Still, with a 4-run lead to protect in Game 5, Red Sox manager Alex Cora brought starting pitcher Chris Sale out of the bullpen to record the final three outs to close out the Fall Classic and secure the Sox’ 5-game series win.

Again, although Kimbrel was technically 6 for 6 in save opportunities during Boston’s title run, his overall performance was not one to brag about, other than the fact that he did manage to put out the fires that he started.

Anyway, Kimbrel’s struggles in the second half of the regular campaign and in the postseason clearly had an impact on his fortunes in free agency. As a result, he’s forever lost nearly half of the 2019 season, which will obviously impact his final career statistics.

Craig Kimbrel’s Hall of Fame Prognosis

Since this is a website entitled Cooperstown Cred, needless to say we’re going to tackle the question about how Craig Kimbrel is progressing towards a Hall of Fame plaque.

Relief pitchers are generally the most difficult to evaluate because the role has evolved over the years. Rollie Fingers made it with 341 saves; Rich Gossage had 310, Bruce Sutter 300 on the nose.

Besides Trevor Hoffman (elected in 2018), Mariano Rivera and Lee Smith (both getting enshrined next month), the only other relief pitchers in Cooperstown are knuckleballer Hoyt Wilhelm (who posted a 2.52 ERA with 228 saves from 1952-72) and Dennis Eckersley (390 saves), who spent half of his career as a solid starting pitcher.

The only relevant comparisons for Kimbrel are Hoffman, Rivera, Smith, and Billy Wagner, who’s been on the BBWAA ballot for the last 4 years and hasn’t gotten more than 17% of the vote (with 75% needed).

Here’s how Kimbrel compares to Rivera, Hoffman, Smith and Wagner.

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Obviously, Kimbrel has a lot of work to do, since he’s barely halfway to 1,000 career innings pitched. Still, he’s dramatically ahead of all of the others when it comes to the peripheral stats, ERA, ERA+, WHIP (walks + hits per inning), SO/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings) and BAA (batting average against).

When writers were debating the cases of Hoffman vs Wagner in the 2016 through 2018 Hall of Fame voting cycles, there was a lot made about Wagner’s dramatically superior run-prevention statistics. Ultimately, Hoffman’s 601 saves counted for a lot more than Billy the Kid’s ERA+, WHIP, BAA or SO/9.

In my piece from 2017 (The Cooperstown Closer Debate), I made a case for Hoffman’s candidacy while also noting that more time was needed to see whether Wagner’s “rate” stats would hold up in the era of 9th-inning-only closers. Wagner’s numbers are not only inferior to Kimbrel’s but also to current closing stars Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.

For the record, here are is how Kimbrel and Wagner stack up against Chapman and Jansen.

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Kimbrel turned 31 less than 2 weeks ago; Jansen and Chapman are already there. Regardless, these are true contemporaries and all legitimate Hall of Fame candidates. As it stands now, Wagner’s numbers will need to be surpassed. That may change in upcoming years if Wagner starts getting more support in the BBWAA voting.

Craig Kimbrel’s Historically Fast Start

When it comes to the potential of a future Cooperstown plaque for Craig Kimbrel, he’s starting out with an enormous advantage in that he’s piled up his 333 saves at a much, much younger age than anybody else in the history of baseball. With obvious caveat that he’s “blown” the first three months of 2019 by not signing a contract with somebody during the off-season, Kimbrel is still only 31 years old and yet already 14th on the all-time saves list. If not for missing April, May and (likely) most of June of this year, Kimbrel might well have topped 400 saves before turning 33.

Take a look at how far ahead Kimbrel is than the 13 pitchers who have more career saves than he does:

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Think about this. He got to 333 saves at an age more than four years younger than the only two men with 600 or more saves. Kimbrel just turned 31.

• Mariano Rivera saved 487 games after his 31st birthday.
• Trevor Hoffman saved 413 games after turning 31.
• Dennis Eckersley didn’t become a full time relief pitcher until he was 32 years old. He piled up 387 of his career 390 saves starting at an age one year older than Kimbrel is now.

What Craig Kimbrel Needs to do to Make it to Cooperstown

Allow me to sketch out five possible paths that Craig Kimbrel’s career could follow:

1. Kimbrel’s career follows the “age 31 and older” pattern of Rivera, Hoffman and Eckersley. He finishes with the most saves in the history of baseball.

2. Kimbrel keeps pitching as well as he has in the last few seasons for another 5-6 years before losing steam in his late 30’s. If he passes 500 saves and maintains his best-ever rate stats, he’ll be in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

3. Kimbrel can’t keep up his sub-2.00 ERA pace but remains some team’s go-to-closer for at least 5 more years and surpasses 500 saves. This is how great Kimbrel has been so far in his career: if he were to post a ERA of 3.75 in his next 300 innings, his career ERA would still be 2.57, which is significantly better than Hoffman’s 2.87. In this case, he’ll still make the Hall of Fame but not on the first ballot. This will also depend on how he ultimately compares to Chapman and Jansen when all careers are complete.

4. Kimbrel starts to break down soon. Let’s say that he is only able to pitch enough to finish his career with between 400 and 475 saves. In this case, his Cooperstown case will be highly questionable but still possible. Because of the smaller workloads relievers have today, Kimbrel has only tossed 532.2 innings. If his career is shortened and he finishes with between 700-800 innings, that’s going to work against him. Currently, the fewest innings pitched for a Hall of Fame closer is 1,089.1 (Hoffman’s total). If Wagner (with 903 innings) eventually makes it, that means Kimbrel’s path to Cooperstown will be much smoother.

5. Kimbrel, as it has happened with many other relief pitchers, loses his effectiveness quickly and becomes a back of the bullpen option. The loss of greatness could be due to injuries or simply losing speed from his 97 MPH fastball as he ages. If Kimbrel’s eventual Hall of Fame case needs to be made solely on what he’s already accomplished in his first 9 years, he’s probably not going to make it, no matter how good he’s been.

Craig Kimbrel and the One-Inning Save

It’s clear that Billy Wagner is languishing in the Hall of Fame vote because of his low innings total and career saves total (422) that is much closer to John Franco‘s 424 than Lee Smith‘s 478, much less Hoffman’s 601 or Rivera’s 652. Although this was also true for Hoffman and Rivera, Wagner was the ultimate example of the “one inning only” closer. Kimbrel is the same.

In 319 of his 333 saves, Kimbrel pitched one inning or less. He has just 14 four-out saves and none longer than that. Here are the number of outs earned by the existing Hall of Fame closers in the last 50 years, plus Wagner, Kimbrel, Chapman and Jansen.

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We can see here that, even in the era of the one-inning closer, Kimbrel has been “protected” by rarely being asked to expand beyond his “role” as the 9th inning guy. The same is true for Chapman and, to a lesser extent, Jansen.

Conclusion

It is exceedingly rare for closers to remain effective for a decade or longer. Craig Kimbrel has already posted eight straight 30+ save seasons. Only five pitchers have ever posted as many as nine seasons with 30 or more saves. Rivera did it 15 times; Hoffman did it 14 times. Lee Smith authored ten 30-save seasons. Wagner and Joe Nathan did it nine times each.

The odds are that Kimbrel will not be able to maintain his superlative form for years to come. The good news is that he doesn’t really have to. He’s gotten off to such a fast start that he could become an “average” closer (not an All-Star) and, as long as he sticks around for awhile, make it to the Hall of Fame based on his overall numbers.

In the 2019 Bill James Handbook, the author gives Kimbrel a 93 on his Hall of Fame monitor in a scoring system in which 100 points means you’re a “likely Hall of Famer.” Only Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw have a better Hall of Fame monitor score for players under the age of 32.

Craig Kimbrel Hall of Fame odds — 70%

Kimbrel is clearly on a Hall of Fame track. The only reason I don’t give him better odds than 70% is because of my belief that future generations of Hall of Fame voters are going to be stingier with relief pitchers than voters of the past.

Thanks for reading.

Please follow me on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Chris Bodig