Forget Politics: Curt Schilling is a Hall of Famer

More than at any time in its history, today’s Hall of Fame voting is polarized based on moral issues. No longer are the debates about who deserves a plaque in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum based strictly on the merits of each player’s performance on the diamond. Today, the additional question is whether any particular player augmented their playing ability with PEDs (Performance Enhancing Drugs). However, in today’s hyper-partisan universe, there’s another player that has spurred a Cooperstown debate that goes beyond his deeds on the field. We’re talking about Curt Schilling, the three-time World Champion starting pitcher turned political lightning rod.

Schilling has a lot in common with the former occupant of the Oval Office in that he pushes people’s buttons with his outspoken views. Like former President Trump, Schilling is a Republican, and he’s not shy about it. Since a significant percentage of the members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) originally plied their trade working in newsrooms in urban areas, it’s safe to say that there’s a liberal tilt in the overall electorate. Most writers that I follow on Twitter don’t espouse political views, but the ones that do mostly lean left.

In January 2020, in his 8th year on the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) ballot, Schilling got 70.0% of the vote in an election that requires 75% to get a plaque in Cooperstown. The next year he was the leading vote-getter (with 71.1%) in an election that saw nobody get elected to the Hall. Normally, when a player hits 70% or above and is on the ballot for the final time the next year, that player gets over the finish line and makes the Hall of Fame. But Schilling sagged to 58.6% this past January, making him just the 5th highest vote-getter. Only David Ortiz, Schilling’s former teammate with the Boston Red Sox, cleared the 75% to get a plaque in Cooperstown.

Like Trump, Schilling is not a fan of the media, and the feeling is mutual. I liked him in my years covering baseball for ESPN, but the feeling wasn’t universal. I left ESPN in 2001, so my interactions occurred when he was pitching for the Philadelphia Phillies or Arizona Diamondbacks. As most of you know, Schilling worked for the network as a studio and game analyst for the network from 2010 to 2016. After being twice suspended for Tweets that were deemed offensive, he was fired in April 2016 for a Tweet about a transgender bathroom law in North Carolina.

Shortly after the 2021 BBWAA results were announced, Schilling released a letter he sent to the Hall of Fame, which said, in part, “I will not participate in the final year of voting. I am requesting to be removed from the ballot. In July 2021, the Hall of Fame officially announced that Schilling’s request had been rejected; he was on the ballot for the 10th and final time this January. Dozens of writers, however, decided to honor his request and declined to cast a ballot for the 216-game winner. Overall, Schilling received 54 fewer votes in 2022 than he did in 2021.

The Contemporary Baseball Players Ballot

This is not the end of the story, of course. The Hall of Fame has a “second-chance” process, the Eras Committee. Schilling is one of eight players on the Contemporary Baseball ballot. The 16 committee members will consider the candidacies of Schilling along with 7 other players whose greatest contributions to the game were from 1980 and beyond. The other players on the ballot are Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro, Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and Albert Belle. (Bonds and Clemens, like Schilling, were on the BBWAA ballot for the 10th and final time earlier this year, also falling short of the Hall). The committee will meet at the baseball winter meetings in San Diego, with the results to be announced on Sunday, December 4th.

Today, the identities of the 16 committee members were announced. There are seven Hall of Famers on the committee (Frank Thomas, Chipper Jones, Ryne Sandberg, Alan Trammell, Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, and Lee Smith), six MLB executives (Paul Beeston, Theo Epstein, Arte Moreno, David St. Peter, Ken Williams, and Kim Ng) and three members of the BBWAA (La Velle Neal, Susan Slusser, and Steve Hirdt).

Schilling does not have any former teammates on this committee. The only connection is Epstein, the former General Manager of the Boston Red Sox. For the record, two of the BBWAA members on the committee (Neal and Slusser) were voters for the 2022 ballot. Neal voted in favor of Schilling, while Slusser left him off her ballot after having cast in favor in prior years.

Given that this ballot contains three suspected PED users (Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro), Schilling’s chances of getting 75% of this vote are hard to analyze. Just as it is with the BBWAA members and the general public, players who used PEDs evoke significantly different reactions. There are many ex-players (including Schilling) who feel that PED users have no place in Cooperstown. Many living Hall of Famers also feel this way. But others are more forgiving. If the committee has 12 members who feel like it’s time to rip off the scab and elect Bonds and Clemens, the chances that Schilling (or anyone else on the ballot) of getting 75% of the vote are slim (each committee member is limited to a maximum of three “yes” votes). It’s not up to him, of course, but this is the body of voters that Schilling wanted to judge his Hall of Fame case.

“I’ve played with wife beaters, adulterers, assaulted, drug addicts and alcoholics. I’ve never hit a woman, driven drunk, done drugs, PEDs or otherwise, assaulted anyone or committed any sort of crime. But I’m now somehow in a conversation with two men who cheated, and instead of being accountable they chose to destroy others lives to protect their lie… I’ll defer to the veterans committee and men whose opinions actually matter and who are in a position to actually judge a player. I don’t think I’m a Hall of Famer as I’ve often stated but if former players think I am then I’ll accept that with honor.”

— Curt Schilling (Facebook post, January 26, 2021)

Schilling referenced the “Veterans Committee” in that Facebook post. The Hall of Fame’s Veterans Committee was the long-time name of what is now known as the Eras Committee.

Many articles have been written about Schilling’s political views. I’ll revisit the topic towards the end of this piece but first, let’s look at Curt Schilling, the pitcher. Strictly based on his work on the mound, does he deserve a spot in the Hall of Fame?

This piece was originally published in January 2018. The article and its statistics have been updated in anticipation of the December vote.

Cooperstown Cred: Curt Schilling

10 years on the BBWAA ballot (received 58.6% of the vote in 2022)

• Orioles (1988-90), Astros (1991), Phillies (1992-2000), Diamondbacks (2000-03), Red Sox (2004-07)
• Career: 216-146 (.597 WL%), 3.46 ERA
• Career: 127 ERA+, 80.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 3,116 career strikeouts, over 300 strikeouts three times
• Won 20 or more games three times
• Member of 3 World Series Champion teams
• 11-2 with 2.23 ERA in 19 postseason starts
• 2nd in Cy Young Award voting three times

(cover photo: abc13.com)

If, after reading those credentials, you’ve already decided that Schilling deserves a plaque in Cooperstown, I’m inclined to agree with you. I’ll get into the pros and cons of Schilling’s candidacy after this review of his career highlights.

Career Highlights

Curt Schilling was born in Anchorage, Alaska, where his father Cliff (a U.S. Army master sergeant) was stationed. As it often is with military families, the Schillings moved a lot before settling in Phoenix. As it was in his major league career, Schilling was a late bloomer, not making the varsity of his high school team until he was a senior. Schilling went on to Yavapai Junior College and was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 1986 January draft.

In July 1988, the Red Sox, in contention and needing starting pitching help, traded the 21-year-old minor leaguer along with rookie outfielder Brady Anderson to the Baltimore Orioles for veteran Mike Boddicker. The Red Sox were in a tight battle for the A.L. East; Boddicker went 7-3 with a 2.63 ERA, helping the Sox win the East by one game over the Detroit Tigers.

The Orioles, however, did not reap the same long-term benefits from the trade that the Astros did from theirs. In ’88 and ’89, Schilling was a September call-up for the Orioles and then joined the team full-time in 1990 as a reliever. In 46 innings, he posted a sterling 2.54 ERA for the O’s.

1990 was the end of Schilling’s Orioles career; in January 1991, he was dealt (along with outfielder Steve Finley and pitcher Pete Harnisch) to the Astros for slugging first baseman Glenn Davis. This was a franchise-killing trade for the Orioles. Finley and Harnisch became solid players in Houston, while Davis only played 185 games in Baltimore, averaging .247 with 8 home runs per year over three seasons.

In his one season with the Astros, Schilling worked out of the bullpen again and had a 3.81 ERA in 75.2 innings. But, as with the Sox and Orioles, the Astros brain trust didn’t realize what they had in Schilling. So Houston dealt the 25-year-old right-hander in April 1992 to the Philadelphia Phillies for Jason Grimsley, who never pitched in Houston; Grimsley spent one season in the minor leagues and was released the following March.

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Baseball history is full of Hall of Famers who were traded in their youth before their actual value as major leaguers had become apparent. Lou Brock, Ryne Sandberg, Jeff Bagwell, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz are just a handful of the famous names who were traded either as minor leaguers or as players in the infancy of their MLB careers. What would make Schilling unique among Hall of Famers is that three different teams traded him before his first season in the majors which could be remotely considered part of a Cooperstown resume.

The Philadelphia Years

Finally, with his fourth MLB team, Schilling found a home in Philadelphia, with the Phils reaping the benefits of the decisions of three franchises to trade the future star. After having sported a mediocre 4.16 ERA in parts of four seasons in Baltimore and Houston, Schilling thrived in manager Jim Fregosi’s rotation.

In his first year (1992), Schill went 14-11 with a 2.35 ERA (ballpark-adjusted for a 150+ ERA, which means he was 50% better than the league average). He also led the major leagues with a 0.990 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) and allowed the fewest hits per 9 innings (6.6) in all Major League Baseball.

He regressed in 1993 (going 16-7 with a 4.02 ERA), but this Phillies team was a great one and won the N.L. East title. Once in October, Schilling established himself as a postseason ace. For the NLCS, Fregosi installed him as his Game 1 starter and, in two starts against the two-time defending N.L. pennant-winning Braves, he gave up only 3 earned runs in 16 innings (1.69 ERA) and was awarded the NLCS MVP Trophy.

1993 World Series

In the World Series against the Toronto Blue Jays, Curt Schilling slipped in Game 1, giving up 7 runs in 6.1 innings. His Game 5 performance, however, was epic. The Phillies had just suffered a devastating Game 4 defeat, losing 15-14 while blowing a 5-run lead in the 8th inning. The team’s bullpen was beaten up and needed a rest. In this, an elimination game, the Phillies postseason ace delivered a complete game, 5-hit shutout in a 147-pitch effort. Although the Jays would go on to win the Series in Game 6 (thanks to Joe Carter’s walk-off home run), the 26-year-old righty had emerged as a legitimate star.

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Final Years in Philadelphia

Schilling suffered through injury-plagued campaigns in 1994 and ’95, which means that, at the age of 28, he had only had one Hall-of-Fame-caliber season. His career record was 43-42 with a 3.56 ERA (translating to a 109 ERA+). In MLB history, only three Hall of Fame pitchers tossed fewer than Schilling’s 805 innings through their respective age 28 seasons.

Although he had just a 9-10 record, Schilling’s Hall of Fame-caliber career began in earnest in 1996 as he posted a 3.19 ERA and led the N.L. with eight complete games. In 1997, he made his first All-Star team (at age 30) and went 17-11 with a 2.97 ERA while leading the majors with 319 strikeouts. He followed up that campaign with a 15-14 record (3.25 ERA) in ’98; he led the N.L. with 300 strikeouts and all of MLB with 15 complete games. Unfortunately, 1999 and 2000 weren’t as good (a 3.54 ERA in ’99 and 3.91 in a partial season with the Phillies in 2000).

Career Rejuvenation in Arizona

In the middle of the 2000 season, with the Phillies mired in their 7th straight losing season, Curt Schilling was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for four players (Travis Lee, Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, and Vicente Padilla), all major leaguers but none of whom would have a significant impact in the City of Brotherly Love.

Thus, Philadelphia became the fourth team to make a bad trade involving Curt Schilling even though, after the 2000 season, there was nothing about Schilling’s career that screamed “future Hall of Famer.” He had never won more than 17 games in a season and had just one campaign (1997) in which he earned Cy Young Award votes (he finished 4th).

At the age of 33, the 6’5″ right-hander had a 110-95 record with a 3.43 ERA in just 1,902 innings. Only Phil Niekro and Dazzy Vance had thrown fewer innings through their age 33 seasons and gone on to earn a plaque in Cooperstown. Interestingly, Schilling’s Arizona teammate (Randy Johnson) would become the third such late-bloomer; the Big Unit only had 1,734 innings under his belt by the end of his age 33 season.

2001: Curt Schilling’s Glory Years Begin

2001, however, marked the beginning of a four-year run in which Schilling elevated his game from 2nd or 3rd-tier starter into an ace. Although he was officially the D’Backs’ 2nd starter, that’s only because his rotation mate was the 6’10” Johnson. In 2001, Schilling led the majors with 256.2 innings pitched while going 22-6 with a 2.98 ERA, good enough to finish 2nd in the Cy Young voting to the Big Unit.

Arizona made it to the World Series in just their fourth year of existence, thanks in significant part to their aces on the mound. In three starts in the NLDS and NLCS, Schilling tossed three complete games and won all three contests, giving up just two runs in 27 innings. His Game 5 win in the NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals (a 2-1 victory) represented another significant effort in a game where his team faced elimination.

2001 World Series: Yankees v Diamondbacks

In the World Series, first-year manager Bob Brenly’s D’Backs were up against the three-time defending champion New York Yankees. Although either Johnson or Schilling could have started Game 1 on full rest, Brenly elected to go with Schilling. The decision was rewarded as Schill tossed 7 innings of one-run ball, leading Arizona to a 9-1 victory. Not surprisingly, the Big Unit delivered an 11-strikeout, 3-hit shutout performance in Game 2, putting the D’Backs up 2 games to none.

After the Yankees won Game 3, Schilling drew the Game 4 start on 3 days rest at Yankee Stadium. In what has become a controversial story, with a 3-1 lead, Brenly pulled Schilling after 7 innings and 88 pitches in favor of closer Byun-Hyun Kim, who famously gave up a game-tying 2-run home run to Tino Martinez and Derek Jeter’s famous “Mr. November” walk-off shot in the bottom of the 10th.

The controversy developed years later when FOX announcer Joe Buck, in his book Lucky Bastard (2016), said that Schilling had asked to be taken out of the game but, knowing Brenly was wearing a microphone, played to the mic and asked to stay in the game. On an Arizona radio station, Schilling told the Burns and Gambo show that Buck “is an assclown… I never in my life asked out of a game.”

Either way, as the series progressed to Game 7 in Arizona, Brenly tabbed Schilling to start the elimination game, again on three days’ rest. He was matched up against Roger Clemens. After seven innings, the game was tied at 1. In the top of the 8th, however, Yankees’ second baseman Alfonso Soriano hit an 0-2 pitch for a solo home run.

Two batters later, Schilling was removed for reliever Miguel Batista (for one batter). Then, coming out of the bullpen like a gunslinger entering a saloon, Game 6 starter Johnson came in on zero days of rest. Ultimately, the Diamondbacks did the unthinkable, rallying for two runs in the bottom of the 9th inning off the Yankees’ normally untouchable closer to Mariano Rivera. The World Series belonged to Arizona; Schilling and Johnson were named co-MVPs.

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2002-2003 in Arizona

Curt Schilling had another superlative season in 2002, going 23-7 with a 3.23 ERA, and once again finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting to Johnson. In the playoffs, the D’Backs were swept in the NLDS by the St. Louis Cardinals. In Game 2, Schilling was typically brilliant, tossing 7 innings of 1 run ball but lifted for a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the frame, and the Cards went on to win 2-1.

In 2003, Schilling missed about a dozen starts due to an appendectomy and broken hand. He went 8-9 with a 2.95 ERA. Johnson also had an off-year, and the D’Backs missed the playoffs.

Traded to Boston

After the 2003 season, Curt Schilling was traded for the fifth time in his career, this time back to his original team, the Boston Red Sox. He was traded for pitchers Casey Fossum, Jorge De La Rosa, and Brandon Lyon. The return to Boston also represented a reunion with manager Terry Francona, who had skippered the Phillies in Schilling’s final four seasons in Philadelphia.

In joining a talented team that had come one game away from the World Series in 2003, Schilling made it clear from the day of his arrival that his goal was to “reverse the curse” and help Boston to its first Championship since 1918.

Schilling, always renowned for his preparation for each start, was a good match with Sox catcher Jason Varitek, who Schilling praised on many occasions. For the third time in four years, Schilling was his league’s Cy Young runner-up (this time to Johan Santana). He delivered everything the Sox could have hoped for in the regular season, going 21-6 with a 3.26 ERA, out-pitching another future Hall of Fame teammate, Pedro Martinez.

Tabbed as the Game 1 starter in the ALDS against the Anaheim Angels, Schilling was the winning pitcher (6.2 IP, 2 ER) but injured a tendon in his right ankle on a play at first base in the 7th.

2004 ALCS: Red Sox v Yankees

Although he had six days of rest before Game 1 of the ALCS against the New York Yankees, Curt Schilling was impaired. He gave up 6 runs in 3 innings and was the losing pitcher for only the 2nd time in 13 postseason starts.

The Sox lost Games 2 and 3 to the Bronx Bombers, getting truly bombed (19-to-8) in Game 3 at Fenway Park. But, famously, the Sox rallied to win Game 4 (in 12 innings) and Game 5 (in 14 innings), both on walk-offs by David Ortiz and both when they had to come from behind in late innings against the great Rivera.

Game 6 was a third consecutive elimination game for the Sox and the injured Schilling took to the bump at Yankee Stadium, with his tendons temporarily stitched back into place on his damaged ankle. This was the renowned “bloody sock” game where seeping blood from the procedure could be seen on a national TV closeup. The patchwork job on Schilling’s ankle worked. He tossed 7 innings of one-run ball, leading the Sox to a 4-2 win.

The next night the Sox won Game 7 by a 10-3 score to get to the World Series. After being the first team in baseball history to come from behind from 3 games to none, the Fall Classic was almost an afterthought. The Sox swept the St. Louis Cardinals in four games with Schilling, of course, winning his Game 2 start in style (6 innings, 1 run, 0 ER).

2005-2007: Curt Schilling’s Final Seasons

2005 was a lost season for Curt Schilling due to returning too soon from surgery on his ankle and some other injuries. In his final two MLB seasons (2006 and 2007), Schilling went 24-15 with a 3.93 ERA (which translates to a solid 121 ERA+). Back in the playoffs in ’07, the Sox swept the Los Angeles Angels in the ALDS, with Schilling tossing 7 shutout innings in the decisive Game 3.

For Schilling and Boston, the ALCS was a near repeat of 2004. The Sox were down 3 games to 1 to the Cleveland Indians and had to win three in a row to return to the Fall Classic. The Sox did precisely that, with Schilling tossing 7 innings of 2-run ball in Game 6. Again, the Red Sox swept their N.L. opponent (this time the Colorado Rockies) in the World Series. In what would turn out to be the final start of his 20-year MLB career, Schilling went out in style, giving up just 1 run in 5.1 innings as the Game 2 winning pitcher at Fenway Park.

After an 86-year drought from 1918 to 2004, the Red Sox had their 2nd World Championship in four seasons, with Schilling earning his 3rd ring in 7 years. Schilling didn’t know at the time that his final Major League Baseball performance would be that Game 2 Series start; he signed on to come back for one last season in 2008 but was unable to pitch.

Portions of Schilling’s career highlights courtesy of his SABR Bio from Bill Nowlin.

The Hall of Fame Case for and against Curt Schilling

Let’s start with the arguments against Curt Schilling’s Hall of Fame candidacy. Other than his sometimes controversial Twitter feed, there are only two somewhat legitimate arguments, in my opinion, against Schilling’s Hall case. Those two are his relatively weak career numbers in the traditional Hall of Fame yardstick statistics (Wins and ERA) and his lack of a Cy Young Award.

#1. Schilling’s 216 career wins are low for a Hall of Fame starting pitcher, and his 3.46 ERA is high. Only one pitcher enshrined in the Hall of Fame has both fewer than 220 wins and an ERA higher than 3.45. That one pitcher is Jesse Haines, a long-time hurler for the St. Louis Cardinals from 1920-1937 who finished with a 210-158 (.571) career record and a 3.64 ERA.

Sabermetric pioneer Bill James, in his landmark book Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame (1995), referred to the induction of Haines (and four others) as “just absurd, absolutely beyond any kind of logical defense.” Haines was a Veterans Committee selection in 1970 when Hall of Famer Frankie Frisch was on the committee. Frisch had the force of will to help get several of his ex-teammates with the Cardinals and Giants into the Hall.

“I’m putting Schill in a corner for another year. He thinks he’s not getting elected because he’s a Trump guy. That’s not it. Schill is a borderline candidate… Schilling’s ERA (3.46) is higher than Kevin Brown’s (3.28). His win total (216) is comparable to Jerry Reuss’s (220). His strikeouts per season (155.8) are fewer than Mickey Lolich’s (177.0).”

— Dan Shaughnessy (Boston Globe, Jan. 8, 2018)

#2. Schilling never won a Cy Young Award and only received votes for the award four times in his career.

Curt Schilling’s Wins and ERA

So, let’s take a look at those arguments against. First, the point that his 216 career wins are low and his 3.46 ERA is high. 216 wins are indeed a low total for a Cooperstown-enshrined starter. As we’ve already documented, Schilling was a late bloomer. Still, his win total would be only the 19th lowest for a Hall of Fame starter (not including the numbers for Negro League inductees, for whom the statistical record is incomplete). 216 wins are not a deal-breaker.

What about the ERA? Well, that’s a topic where context is critical. Schilling, at his best, toed the rubber in pitcher-unfriendly Bank One Ballpark in Arizona and Fenway Park in Boston. Not to mention the fact, of course, that his career directly coincided with the offensively charged PED era. This is why the context-dependent adjusted ERA+ is crucial. ERA+ (in which 100 is average) adjusts for ballpark effects and the overall hitting-or-pitching-friendly environment of each season. Schilling’s career ERA+ is 127, which would put him tied for 22nd best among Hall of Famers (along with Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, and Stan Coveleski). Moreover, his 127 career ERA+ is better than 42 enshrined starters.

Kevin Brown, by the way (as Shaughnessy pointed out), had a better ERA than Schilling and an equal 127 ERA+. As a result, he’s a popular overlooked candidate within the sabermetric community. Some people forget, though, that Brown was named in the Mitchell Report on steroids.

Although he got off to a slow start, Schilling tossed 3,261 innings in his career. In the entire recorded history of baseball, for all starting pitchers with at least 3,000 innings pitched, Clemens is the only hurler with an ERA+ better than Schilling’s 127 who is not already in the Hall. Because of the context of the era in which he pitched, Schilling’s career ERA is a plus for his Hall of Fame candidacy.

Lack of Hardware

Now, about that lack of regular-season hardware? It’s true, Curt Schilling never won a Cy Young Award. The Cy Young was first awarded in 1956, to only one pitcher throughout Major League Baseball. It wasn’t until 1967 that there was a separate award for the American and National Leagues. The only starters in the Hall (who primarily pitched after ’67) who don’t have a Cy Young Award trophy are Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Phil Niekro, Bert Blyleven, Mike Mussina, and Jack Morris. Ryan, Sutton, and Niekro won over 300 games each, and the others won over 250 regular-season contests.

Like Schilling, Blyleven only earned Cy Young votes four times in his career; Morris got votes seven times. The difference is that Schilling was actually the Cy Young runner-up three times (twice to Randy Johnson and once to Johan Santana) while Blyleven and Morris never finished higher than 3rd.

When I look at a pitcher’s lack of Cy Youngs, if you have multiple runner-ups to another Hall of Famer, you get a pass.

About those Strikeouts

If there’s one thing that made Curt Schilling a great pitcher, it was his penchant for piling up high strikeout totals while limiting his walks to a handful. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.38 is the best in baseball since 1884 (with a minimum of 3,000 innings pitched). That’s 1884, sports fans, less than 20 years after the end of the Civil War. (If you lower the bar to 2,000 innings, he’s still got the 3rd best ratio; he’s slightly behind Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw, both certain future Hall of Famers).

Another point in favor is Schilling is that he is one of 19 pitchers in MLB history to record 3,000 or more career strikeouts. From that group, only he, Clemens, CC Sabathia, Scherzer, and Justin Verlander are not in the Hall of Fame. Sabathia, Scherzer, and Verlander, of course, are not yet eligible.

Among those 19 pitchers with 3,000+ whiffs:

• Only three walked less than 800 batters: Scherzer (701), Schilling (711), and Martinez (760).
• Schilling’s 8.60 strikeouts per 9 innings are sixth-best (behind Scherzer, Johnson, Martinez, Ryan, and Verlander).
• Only Greg Maddux walked fewer than Schilling’s 1.96 batters per 9 innings.

There’s more. Schilling struck out 300 or more batters three times in his career. Going back to 1901, the beginning of the modern game, the Big Unit and the Ryan Express are the only two pitchers to do it more times (6 times each). The only other pitcher to record three different seasons with 300 strikeouts? Sandy Koufax.

There are two other credentials on Schilling’s resume that, to me, make him a slam-dunk Hall of Famer. The first should be obvious if you’re familiar with his career; it’s his superb postseason record. The second is where he ranks in WAR (Wins Above Replacement). We’ll tackle Schilling’s career WAR first because it’s a short and sweet story.

Wins Above Replacement

OK, first, let’s acknowledge that some readers swear by WAR while others think it’s a junk stat. For those of you in the “junk stat” camp, WAR is not necessary to appreciate the excellence of Schilling’s career. However, for those who are WAR believers, it’s a stat that supersedes his other statistics to such a degree that there’s no rational argument that would lead to the conclusion that Schilling does not belong in the Hall of Fame.

Schilling’s career WAR was 80.5, which is the 26th highest in the history of baseball among pitchers. It’s better than 58 pitchers enshrined in the Hall of Fame, including Sutton, Jim Palmer, Juan Marichal, Whitey Ford, Koufax, Tom Glavine, Smoltz, and Roy Halladay.

Only Clemens has a higher career WAR for pitchers without a plaque in Cooperstown.

If you want to dive into the weeds about how WAR for pitchers is calculated, I invite you to visit the Glossary. Suffice it to say that Schilling’s ability to pile up high strikeout and low walk totals plays a significant role in the calculation of his high WAR.

Almost universally, baseball writers who use WAR as a sorting tool conclude that Schilling is Cooperstown-worthy.

The Postseason Ace

Despite his WAR credential, it’s completely unnecessary in building a Hall of Fame case for Curt Schilling.

As we detailed in his career highlights, Schilling was absolutely magnificent in October, going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 19 starts. Among his six no-decisions, two were in the 1993 NLCS, in which Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams squandered the leads that Schilling had bequeathed him (the Phils went on to win both games). Nevertheless, despite no wins, Schilling was the ’93 NLCS MVP because of his two 8-inning starts in which he gave up just 3 earned runs combined. As you might recall, Schilling was also in a position to win Game 4 of the 2001 World Series but Byung Hyun-Kim blew the save in that epic contest.

Among his 19 postseason starts, Schilling was given the ball five times in elimination games, contests in which a loss for his team would result in the end of that team’s season. He had one of those starts with Philadelphia (Game 5 of the 1993 World Series), two with Arizona (Game 5 of the NLDS and Game 7 of the World Series), and two with Boston (Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS and Game 6 of the 2007 ALCS). His teams won all five games. Schilling pitched 39.1 innings in those five starts and gave up just 6 earned runs (for a 1.37 ERA). Oh by the way, in those five starts he struck out 33 batters and walked just 4.

Incidentally, there are 11 other pitchers who have toed the rubber at the start of five different postseason elimination games. Schilling is the only one of the 12 whose teams are undefeated in those starts.

Super Quality Starts

Beyond his brilliance in the elimination games, in 16 of his 19 postseason efforts, Curt Schilling gave up two earned runs or less. He went at least six innings in all but one of those 16 starts (thus 15 quality starts out of 19 total). He only had three sub-par outings in his postseason career, his Game 1 loss in the ’93 Fall Classic, his Game 2 loss in the ’04 ALCS, and his no-decision Game 2 team loss in the ’07 ALCS.

What’s notable about those 15 quality starts is that every single one exceeded the minimum requirements (6+ innings and 3 or fewer earned runs). In all 15 he gave up 2 or fewer ER. In the history of playoff baseball, only four pitchers have more than Schilling’s 15 starts with 6 or more IP and 2 or fewer ER.

As you can see, of the top 7 on this list, John Smoltz is alone in even approaching the consistency of Schilling’s superlative outings. In all of baseball history, there are 17 pitchers with 10 or more starts of this type. Only legend Christy Mathewson (with 10 out of 11) had a higher percentage of his postseason efforts that yielded 2 or fewer ER in 6 or more IP.

Taking this one step beyond, 10 of 19 Schilling’s playoff outings featured 7 or more IP and 1 or fewer ER. Only Glavine (with 13) has had more starts of this type but he needed 35 total efforts to get those 13, compared to Schilling’s 19.

In totality, there have been 31 pitchers who have tossed at least 100 innings in postseason contests. Here are the top 10, ranked by ERA:

Best Postseason Starter in the last 50 Years?

There is one final crucial factor to consider when evaluating Schilling’s postseason impact. The first is that not only was Schilling dazzling in the vast majority of his playoff starts, he often needed to be brilliant in order for his teams to win.

When I evaluate a player’s postseason record with respect to their Hall of Fame candidacy, I ask myself, “to what degree was this player indispensable to his team’s pursuit of a World Championship?” To have some fun and coin a phrase, how many “Rings Above Replacement” or “Pennants Above Replacement” was that player worth? So, let’s look at the record.

1993 Postseason

In the 1993 NLCS (in which Curt Schilling was MVP), the Phillies defeated the Braves in 6 games.

• Game 1 (8 IP, 2 ER, 10 K, 2 BB): Schilling left with a 3-2 lead; Mitch Williams blew the save in the 9th; the Phils won in the bottom of the 10th by a 4-3 score.
• Game 5 (8 IP, 2 runs, 1 ER, 9 K, 3 BB): Schilling had a 3-0 lead in the 9th. After a leadoff walk and then an error by 3rd baseman Kim Batiste, Schilling was removed and The Wild Thing allowed three singles and a sacrifice fly to blow that lead. Philadelphia, again, won 4-3 in 10 innings.

If Schilling had thrown a clunker in either game, the series would have gone to 7 games. If he had thrown two clunkers, the Braves would have had a World Series rematch against the Toronto Blue Jays. So it’s clear that 1993 represents a “Pennant Above Replacement” for Schilling.

In the 1993 World Series, he did throw a clunker and lost Game 1. However, as we’ve detailed, he was brilliant in his 147-pitch Game 5 shutout, a 2-0 victory, an elimination game that kept the Phillies alive for one more contest. Anything less than magnificence and the series would likely have ended that night.

2001 Postseason

Eight years later, in 2001, the Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3 Games to 2 in the 5-Game NLDS. If they awarded an MVP trophy for the Division Series, it certainly would have gone to Curt Schilling.

• Game 1 (CG shutout, 9 K, 1 BB): Schilling out-dueled Matt Morris in the D’Backs 1-0 victory.
• Game 5 (CG, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB): Schilling again outpointed Morris in the decisive 2-1 win.

Needless to say, if Schilling had delivered one lackluster outing, the Snakes would have likely been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

In the 2001 NLCS, the D’Backs defeated Atlanta fairly easily (4 Games to 1), with Schilling tossing a complete game 4-hitter with 12 strikeouts in Game 3.

In the World Series against the New York Yankees, Arizona won easily in Game 1. With Schilling throwing 7 innings of one-run ball, The D’Backs smacked around Mike Mussina for 5 runs in 3 innings, leading to a 9-1 victory.

After Kim blew a potential Game 4 victory in the Bronx, Schilling was back on the rubber for Game 7 in Arizona. Schill threw 7 innings of one-run ball until, as we recall, Alfonso Soriano led off the 8th with a solo home run, giving the Yankees a 2-1 lead. Schilling didn’t win the game, but he kept the D’Backs in the game. When Luis Gonzalez’s broken-bat bloop single in the bottom of the 9th gave Arizona a 3-2 win and World Championship, Schilling had truly earned his first ring.

Suffice it to say that, without his two complete-game victories in the NLDS and his Game 7 World Series performance, Arizona would not have won the Fall Classic. So, count that as one Ring Above Replacement.

2004 & 2007 Postseasons

Now, if you look at the 2004 Boston Red Sox, it’s clear that the “bloody sock” performance in Game 6 of the ALCS was critical to the Sox eventual reversal of the Curse of the Bambino. An outing of 7 innings and 1 run was crucial in the Sox 4-2 win.

Finally, in the 2007 World Series, Schilling pitched 5.1 innings while giving up just 1 run in Game 2 of the World Series, a 2-1 win over the Colorado Rockies. He also won Game 3 of the ALDS (by a 9-1 margin) and Game 6 of the ALCS (by a 12-2 score). Because of those lopsided scores, it’s fair to say that a “replacement” pitcher might have also one of those contests.

Anyway, in totality, Schilling was absolutely indispensable in his team’s 2001 title run, pitched brilliantly in a crucial elimination game in the 2004 ALCS (which led to a World Championship), and was a contributing member to another one in 2007. So just looking at it subjectively, you could give the gritty right-hander two “Rings Above Replacement” for ’01 and ’04 and a half-point for ’07.

What’s that worth? Three championships, indispensable for two, and a contributing member of a third?

To these eyes, Schilling’s eleven overall postseason victories are worth 60 to 70 regular-season wins. Some players are “bystanders” as their teams win championships, getting their rings on the basis of the efforts of their teammates. For two of Schilling’s three rings, his teams would not have succeeded without him. All told, he is arguably the most valuable starting pitcher in the LCS era, which started in 1969.

Win Probability Added

Did you register the last line? I just wrote that Curt Schilling has been the most valuable starting pitcher in the LCS era. But, of course, that’s just my subjective opinion, or is it?

Believe it or not, however, there is a way to calculate this, through a statistic called Win Probability Added (WPA). Unlike WAR, it’s straightforward to figure out how this is calculated. Please enjoy the Glossary for a full explanation but the short version is as follows: every batter-pitcher match-up results in an outcome that increases one team’s chances of winning and decreases the other team’s chances.

When Kirk Gibson his famous walk-off home run off Dennis Eckersley in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series, his WPA for that game was 0.87. His team had a 13% chance to win the game when he entered the batters’ box. After his home run, the victorious L.A. Dodgers had a 100% chance of winning. 100 – 13 = 87. On the other side, Eckersley, on that one swing of the bat, had a negative WPA of -0.87.

As a starting pitcher, if you’re throwing a gem, you’re going to get a higher WPA if the outcome of the game is on the line than if your team is blowing out the opposition. In a scoreless or one-run game, each out has a measurable impact on your team’s probability of winning. If you’re pitching in the 8th inning and your team is up 10-0, the statistical odds of a win don’t change much no matter what you do.

Here is the list of pitchers with the highest postseason WPA since 1969:

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Mariano Rivera dominates this list. Of course, he pitched in 96 (mostly) high-leverage games. Schilling piled up his WPA “points” in just 19 appearances. On a per-game basis, the hurler closest to Schilling is Madison Bumgarner.

Among starting pitchers, for the results of each and every pitcher-batter confrontation, nobody had a more significant impact on his teams’ odds of winning postseason games than Curt Schilling.

Championship WPA

A note to the reader: the section above was originally written a couple of years ago. While the leaderboard is still accurate, Baseball Reference has a new metric called cWPA (Championship Win Probability Added). This metric provides extra credit the deeper into the postseason in which a pitcher’s efforts occurred. Based on this metric, the number one starter of the LCS era (and in all of baseball history) is Bumgarner, thanks to the fact that his best efforts occurred in the World Series, with his signature effort coming in Game 7 in 2014. Based on this metric, Schilling’s contributions to actually winning championships are the 4th best for starting pitchers since 1969, behind Bumgarner, Jack Morris, and John Smoltz.

It won’t surprise anyone to know that Bumgarner and Morris top the charts here based on their Game 7 World Series efforts (with MadBum’s championship-winning performance coming out of the bullpen).

Anyway, here is the cWPA leaderboard among starting pitchers since 1969:

1. Madison Bumgarner (132.6%)
2. Jack Morris (92.7%)
3. John Smoltz (81.7%)
4. Curt Schilling (74.3%)
5. Josh Beckett (62.1%)

Schilling’s Cooperstown Progression

Curt Schilling hit the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot in 2013, a member of a power-packed first-year class that included Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, and Craig Biggio. Although Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro had appeared on previous ballots, this was the first really BIG ballot of PED-linked players. Famously, the writers did not elect one player from this group (although Biggio and Piazza have subsequently been inducted into Cooperstown).

Schilling earned 38.8% of the vote (just a bit more than the percentage for Bonds and Clemens), a solid first-year salvo, and a number high enough for an inaugural vote that, historically, it usually leads to a plaque in the future. In 2014, Schilling’s total sagged to 29.2%, likely because he suffered in comparison to Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, who each became first-ballot Hall of Famers. Despite the addition of two more top-flight starters in 2015 (Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez), Schilling rebounded to 39.2% the following year.

With no new starting pitchers joining the party in 2016, there were only three starting pitchers to choose from: Clemens, Schilling, and Mike Mussina. Schilling’s vote total was the best (at 52.3%) of the three.

The Tweet and Schilling’s Political Views

Something happened five years ago, in 2017. Bonds and Mussina both climbed up above 50% of the vote while Schilling sagged to 45%. From 2016 to 2017, Mussina and Bonds both received 40 more votes while Schilling had 31 fewer. How does one explain this? If a picture is worth a thousand words, in this case, a Tweet was worth the loss of those 31 votes:

Schilling took down this particular one reasonably quickly as he had previously done with some unpopular Tweets, but the damage was done. Several writers publicly admitted that they decided not to vote for him specifically because of this Tweet. For these writers, if Schilling thought so much about them that he was calling a t-shirt about lynching journalists “awesome,” that was a good enough reason to invoke the “character clause” of the rules for electing players to the Hall of Fame.

Anyway, if you’d like to enjoy a short history of the character clause and the Hall of Fame, I invite you to take a look at the final segment of a piece I authored five years ago, Is Curt Schilling Tweeting his way out of Cooperstown? Suffice it to say that, whatever you think about Schilling’s occasionally inappropriate sense of humor or his political views, the Hall of Fame is filled with many players who had character traits that were repugnant.

The 2018 Vote

Getting back to our history lesson, on the 2018 vote, Schilling recovered slightly from his Twitter-driven decline, bouncing back up to 51% (from 45% in 2017).

Notably, two writers who publicly rebuked Schilling in 2017 put him back on their respective ballots in 2018.

“I didn’t omit Schilling due to his politics last year; I omitted him because he suggested he wanted me (and other journalists) dead on Twitter…. I have always known his politics – how could you not? – and I voted for him in every year but the one where he made it clear he wanted me dead. I assume he still does, but at least he’s keeping his mouth shut about it now.”

— Jon Heyman (FanRag Sports, 12/7/17)

“If I’m to consider integrity, sportsmanship and character, I won’t support someone who advocates murder (and I don’t care if it’s a journalist or an animal). I withheld my vote for Schilling last year, and I was skewered by folks calling me a liberal snowflake (little do you know) who let politics enter the voting equation.

But I also kept my eyes and ears open the past year, not to Schilling’s political views but to what he did for mankind. And he did good things, especially when he organized deliveries of badly needed supplies to citizens of hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico.”

— Kirby Arnold (Golfers West, 1/5/18) (formerly of the Everett Herald)

The 2019, 2020, and 2021 Votes

In January 2019, Schilling got 60.9% of the BBWAA vote, his highest vote percentage ever. 30 writers flipped from “no” to “yes,” with only one going the other way.

A quick sample from some of the “no” to “yes” voters:

“To be sure, because of his politics I’ve had a visceral and adverse reaction to Schilling. I’m not alone as voter in that regard. It’s not that he’s a conservative and I’m a liberal. It’s not he’s a Republican and I’m a Democrat.

The Hall gives us very little voting guidance. Rule 5, though, states that ‘Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.’ It says nothing about judging a player based on his political leanings, comments and tweets after his career ended.”

— Barry Bloom (Forbes, Dec. 3, 2018)

“I voted for him in 2016, as his baseball credentials clearly warrant that. But he went so far beyond the pale with some remarks and actions after that… that I felt he crossed into foul territory of the character section of the qualifications… At any rate, Schilling hasn’t caused any stir since then, certainly nothing of a similar scale. As such, and since his conduct didn’t impact, directly or indirectly, his baseball career, I’ve put him back. I’m holding my nose in doing so, but I’ve put him back.

I’m allowed to still hope he gets a flat tire on the way to the ceremony, right?”

— Dejan Kovacevic (dkpittsburghsports.com, Dec. 26, 2018)

In 2020, Schilling made a significant gain, getting all the way up to 70.0%, which is usually the number that predicts a 75% total in the next year or two. In addition, 26 writers who had left him off in 2019 checked his name in 2020, with just two writers going from “yes” to “no.” (Incidentally, I could not find any writers’ column that explained their reason for changing their minds in 2020).

Going back to 1990, the BBWAA has pushed a 70%-or-better candidate to 75% the next year in 14 straight instances. Schilling, however, thanks almost certainly to his politics, did not continue that trend, falling short at 71.1%.

Here are the comments from a pair of first-time voters for the 2021 ballot.

“Curt Schilling did not get my vote. Call it contradictory if you will, but I couldn’t in good conscience allow myself to hold him to same ‘what they did on the field’ standard that I applied to the PED group. As important as baseball is, there are things far more important than baseball. As Jay (Jaffe) stated in our recent FanGraphs Audio conversation, ‘It goes beyond politics… [Schilling] has documented examples of hate speech.’ In my mind, that’s a disqualifier.”

— David Laurila (FanGraphs, November 29, 2020)

Jaffe, also a first-time voter in 2021, was unconditional that he won’t support Schilling for Cooperstown:

“At a time when the type of right-wing rhetoric Schilling has repeatedly trafficked in has fueled the United States’ inclusion among the most dangerous countries for professional journalists, I don’t blame any journalist for eliminating Schilling from consideration… I’m done telling anybody to hold their nose and vote for Schilling, and while I have included him on nearly every one of my virtual ballots since he became eligible, I won’t be including him now that I have an actual ballot. Not this year, and — spoiler alert — not next year either, if he falls short of 75% this time around. This isn’t about politics, this is about his using his sizable platform to spread hatred, intolerance, and disinformation. That platform will only grow if and when he’s elected, and I want no part of that.”

— Jay Jaffe (FanGraphs, December 28, 2020)

What does Curt Schilling Think?

In a lengthy Facebook post, Schilling responded to Laurila’s “hate speech” statement, from which I’ve chosen a couple of paragraphs. The key takeaway here is that Schilling does not expect to make it into the Hall of Fame and has made peace with that likelihood (which he reiterated after falling short on the 2021 vote).

“There isn’t a SINGLE documented quote of “hate speech” in my existence… While the Hall gives the writers the ‘honor’ of voting, none of them are in a position or armed with the insight to tell me how good I was or wasn’t. Certainly not any more than the hardcore fan and in a ton of instances far less. They ALL read the same numbers everyone else does. Yet many choose to selectively use the character clause where it appears to give them content to write an article. That’s fine, that’s their prerogative, as insanely hypocritical as it may be. Every single one that covered the beat for my 22 years and met me? Not a single one, man, woman, white, black, Hispanic or other can lay claim to me ever being anything but respectful of their time and their jobs.

The men I played with, the clubhouses I lived in, and the fans I played for that rooted for me know that I gave the game everything I had and played it with the utmost respect to teammates and opponents every single time I took the ball. I left everything I had out there. And quite honestly the most important part? The game owes me absolutely nothing.”

— Curt Schilling (on Facebook, Nov. 30, 2020)

“In my 22 years playing professional baseball in the most culturally diverse locker rooms in sports I’ve never said or acted in any capacity other than being a good teammate… I’ve played with wife beaters, adulterers, assaulted, drug addicts and alcoholics. I’ve never hit a woman, driven drunk, done drugs, PEDs or otherwise, assaulted anyone or committed any sort of crime. But I’m now somehow in a conversation with two men who cheated, and instead of being accountable they chose to destroy others lives to protect their lie… I will always have one thing they will forever chase. A legacy.

I am requesting to be removed from the ballot. I’ll defer to the veterans committee and men whose opinions actually matter and who are in a position to actually judge a player. I don’t think I’m a Hall of Famer as I’ve often stated but if former players think I am then I’ll accept that with honor. Again, I won’t be able to thank you for your kindness and sincere interest in this process as it pertains to me. I’ll be forever grateful.”

— Curt Schilling (on Facebook, Jan. 26, 2021)

2022: Curt Schilling’s Last Year on the BBWAA ballot

As noted at the top of the piece, Schilling sagged to 58.6% of the vote, with 54 fewer “yes” votes from the writers than in January 2021.

“Begin with the curious case of Curt Schilling, who received 285 votes last season – including one from right here – before falling 16 votes short of election… Schilling chose not to try to appeal to those final 16 voters but to insult the first 285. He said he didn’t want to be elected by the baseball writers, anyway, and would prefer to be chosen later by some old-timers’ panel. No problem, C.S. Happy to oblige.”

— Jack McCaffrey (Delco Times, Nov. 28, 2021)

“Schilling was clear last January that he didn’t want the writers vote this time… If he doesn’t want to be inducted by the writers, I’m not going to waste my vote on him when I can give it to someone else just as deserving. No spite. No hard feelings here. I wish him luck with the veterans committee.”

— Dan Connolly (The Athletic, Dec. 28, 2021)

And, from one of the few writers who has changed his vote to the affirmative:

“I really don’t want to vote for him. It is not the politics. It’s just the pure toxic venom he enjoys using to express his views. The hate he spews is just disgusting. That’s why I have withheld my support for him the last few years. And anybody who thinks it’s because I am a liberal, well, whatever.

But he was a Hall of Fame pitcher and beneath all that toxicity, there once existed — and probably still does — a really good person. He has won the Roberto Clemente, Lou Gehrig and other community/character awards. If he would just drop the attention-getting performance artist act. I am voting for him this year, and thankful it’s the last time I have to worry about it.”

— T.R. Sullivan (formerly of the Fort-Worth Telegram, Dec. 21, 2021)

Conclusion

Curt Schilling, inning by inning, batter by batter, was one of the very top pitchers in baseball in the last 40 years. There is only one baseball reason not to vote for Curt Schilling for the Hall of Fame and it’s because he only won 216 games. Going back to 1973 (among all pitchers with at least 2,000 IP), he has the 6th highest WAR, the 10th best ERA+, the 5th most strikeouts, the 3rd best strikeout/walk ratio, and the 7th best WHIP. Incidentally, and this is not in any way to cast a shadow on their superb Hall of Fame careers, Schilling bests both Tom Glavine and John Smoltz in every one of these particular categories.

When you add in the fact that he had arguably more impact on postseason baseball than any other starting pitcher in over 50 years, you have an easy Hall of Fame choice. But it still hasn’t happened. As a writer about the Hall of Fame and a lifelong fan (yes, a Red Sox fan), that makes me sad. It seems clear that I want Curt in the Hall of Fame more than he does. Sometimes that’s the difference between a fan and a player.

Now, just 10 months after his last rodeo with the BBWAA, Schilling is on the Contemporary Baseball Players Eras Committee ballot. As we’ve documented, Schilling stated that he wants to be judged by his peers. That wish is coming true on Sunday.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

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