Dale Murphy, Superstar from the 1980’s, is Still Outside the Hall of Fame

Dale Murphy, the long-time outfielder for the Atlanta Braves, was one of baseball’s greatest stars in the early part of the 1980s. He won back-to-back National League MVP trophies and then finished in the top 10 for the two years that followed.

Unfortunately, in the years after his seventh and final All-Star Game appearance, his career rapidly went downhill. Thus, a star who seemed destined for a Hall of Fame plaque is still waiting. He’ll get another chance this next Sunday when the Hall’s “2nd chance” committee (the Eras Committee) meets to discuss and vote on 8 candidates on the Contemporary Baseball Players ballot, which features players whose primary impact on the game occurred since 1980. The 16 members of the committee, which will meet at baseball’s Winter Meetings in San Diego on December 4th, each can vote for up to three players. Anybody who gets at least 12 out of 16 votes (75%) will be elected to the Hall.

Murphy will be on a ballot with Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Rafael Palmeiro, Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly, and Albert Belle. Murphy appeared on two ballots that were known as the Modern Baseball ballot (in December 2017 and December 2019) but was not selected either time. On those ballots, Jack Morris, Alan Trammell, Ted Simmons, and former union chief Marvin Miller were elected to the Hall of Fame.

Murphy was an extremely popular player with a loyal following. In February 2019, I ran a Twitter poll, asking respondents to rank their first choice for the 2020 Hall of Fame ballot among center fielders from 1970-87. I asked my followers to choose between Murphy, Al Oliver, and Fred Lynn. Murphy was the overwhelming pick with 66%. When I ran other polls for other positions, I would always get comments like “none of these until Murphy is in.” These are unscientific polls but an indicator of the love and support Murphy has.

In this piece, I’ll take an in-depth look at both sides of Murphy’s case for the Hall of Fame. Although I think he’s a long shot, I’ll explain at the end of this piece why I think this might be Murphy’s best chance at a plaque in Cooperstown.

Cooperstown Cred: Dale Murphy (CF)

15 Years on the BWAA Ballot (18.6% in 2013)

• Braves (1976-90), Phillies (1990-92), Rockies (1993)
• Career: .265 BA, 398 HR, 1,266 RBI, 2,111 Hits
• Career: 121 OPS+, 46.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 1982 N.L. MVP: .281 BA, 36 HR, 109 RBI, 113 runs
• 1983 N.L. MVP: .302 BA, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 131 runs, 30 SB
• 5 different seasons with 30+ home runs; 12 different seasons with 20+ HR
• 7-time All-Star
• 5-time Gold Glove Award winner, 4-time Silver Slugger

(cover photo: Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Hyosub Shin)

This is an updated version of a piece that was originally posted in November 2017, when Murphy first appeared on the Modern Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. 

Dale Murphy in the Minors

Dale Bryan Murphy, one of baseball’s all-time good guys, was born in Portland, Oregon on March 12, 1956. After playing high school baseball, Murphy signed a letter of intent to attend Arizona State but opted for professional baseball instead when the Atlanta Braves selected the 18-year-old as the 5th overall pick in the 1974 player draft.

The 6’4″ Murphy was drafted as a catcher, touted for his powerful throwing arm, and started his minor league career playing almost exclusively behind the dish. Although Murphy moved up fairly quickly through the rungs of the minors, he didn’t immediately show the power that he would later feature in the majors. In his first two minor league campaigns, The Murph swatted just 10 home runs in 705 plate appearances.

Murphy advanced through AA Savannah and AAA Richmond in ’76 and found his power stroke, hitting 20 home runs in 327 PA. He earned a call-up to the Braves in September of ’76; he hit .262 in 19 games (starting 17 of them) with no home runs and 9 RBI.

Murphy the Missionary?

While playing in Greenwood, SC in 1975, teammate Barry Bonnell got Dale Murphy interested in the Church of Latter-day Saints. Bonnell baptized Murphy into the church after the ’75 season.

After the 1976 season, the 20-year-old Murphy was determined to go on a two-year mission, which is something young Mormons typically do. Braves owner Ted Turner called Dale’s father Charles and asked him what was going on with his son. Charles warned Turner that Dale was very serious about his religion.

“I’m going to call him and I’m going to tell him, if he’ll sign this contract—and he knows it is a good one—I’ll give him a chance to convert me, my wife and children, and my aunt to the Mormon church. Then I’m going to tell him, if he doesn’t sign, all these people, plus my mother, are going to commit suicide.”

— Braves owner Ted Turner (to Charles Murphy)

Murphy was talked out of going on the mission, not by Turner or his father, but by a former minor league pitcher who convinced Dale that he could better serve while playing Major League Baseball. Murphy briefly attended Brigham Young University in the off-season and met his future wife Nancy there in 1978. They married in October 1979 in the Salt Lake Temple.

Early Years in MLB (1976-78)

Two years before marriage, in 1977, still in the minors, the now 21-year-old Dale Murphy blossomed as a hitter. He hit .305 while swatting 22 home runs with 90 RBI at AAA Richmond. Murph got another call-up to the majors in September. In 18 games, he hit .316 with 2 home runs and 14 RBI.

Both of Murphy’s first two home runs came in the same game, on September 15th in San Diego. In the top of the 7th, with the Braves trailing 6-0, Murphy hit his first MLB tater off left-hander Randy Jones, the 1976 Cy Young Award winner in the National League. Murphy and his teammates rallied to tie the score in the 8th (Murph contributed a two-run single), sending the game into extra frames. In the top of the 10th, Murphy led off the inning with another solo blast, this one off future Hall of Fame closer Rollie Fingers.

While he was growing as a hitter, Dale Murphy started to develop a mental block when throwing from behind the plate. The Braves waffled between putting Murph at catcher or first base for a couple of years. In his first two full seasons as a starter in the majors (1978 and ’79), Murphy spent most of his time at first. His throwing woes did not go away with the position switch. In 205 games played at first, Murphy committed a whopping 35 errors, which was 13 more than anyone else in the National League for those two seasons.

Murphy’s early struggles weren’t limited to his fielding. In ’78, although he hit 23 home runs, Murphy hit just .226, had a woeful .284 on-base percentage, and struck out a National League “best” 145 times.

1979: Fast Start, Slow Finish

Still a prized prospect for the Braves, Murphy stayed in the majors in 1979. He started the season splitting time behind the plate and at first base. In fact, 27 of his first 39 starts were as Atlanta’s catcher.

On May 22nd against Houston, he injured his knee while catching a knuckleball from future Hall of Famer Phil Niekro, causing him to miss all but one of the team’s next 53 games. That was the last time Murphy ever donned the tools of ignorance. The timing of the injury was unfortunate because Murph was rolling at the plate, having posted a .348 BA/.421 OBP/.660 SLG slash line to go with 13 home runs and 36 RBI.

Back in the lineup full-time in mid-July, Murph played exclusively at first. After all the time off, Murph’s bat went cold. In his final 64 games, his slash line numbers plummeted to .231/.288/.355 with just 8 long balls and 21 RBI. Thanks to the good start, Murphy’s overall offensive numbers for the year were solid (.276 BA, 113 OPS+) but his defense was pretty horrible.

• 27 games as a catcher: 5 errors, 11 passed balls, allowed 32 of 38 SB (16% CS)
• 76 games at first base: 15 errors, 42 assists

Murphy’s woeful defensive numbers can’t be entirely blamed on his lack of skill. All 11 passed balls occurred in games started by Niekro, whose knuckler could baffle even a Gold Glove receiver. However, 32 steals allowed in 27 games is bad.

Regarding his time at first base, if you doubled Murphy’s 76 games at first to 152, he would have theoretically committed 30 errors. No first baseman has had that many in a season since 1919.

The point here is that Murphy’s career as a productive player was in jeopardy because of his inability to throw from either behind the plate or within the infield. Thanks to his poor year with the bat in ’78 and his overall defensive struggles, Murphy was worth -0.8 WAR in his 292 games from 1976-79.

All-Star in the Outfield

On December 5, 1979, the Atlanta Braves acquired first baseman Chris Chambliss from the Toronto Blue Jays in a five-player deal that included Dale Murphy’s friend Barry Bonnell going to Canada. The acquisition of Chambliss, famous for his days with the New York Yankees, meant that a new position needed to be found for Dale Murphy. In spring training, Braves manager Bobby Cox moved him to left field.

Murphy started the first 4 games of the 1980 regular season in left before moving to right field for the next 21. Finally, on May 13th, Cox moved Murphy to center field, which would be his home for most of the rest of his career. The throwing problems that had plagued Murph behind the plate and at first base disappeared. Of the three outfield positions, center field is the most important and it also happened to suit the athletic Murphy better than the corner spots.

“Left field and right field are a lot harder to play than center field… In left field and right field, you got the corners to play and you’ve got curving line drives coming at you. You’ve got a longer throw, too, at least in right field. And you don’t see the ball come off the bat as easily as you do in center field. In left field, if there’s a right-handed batter, his body hides the ball for a split second; the same in right field for a left-handed batter. But in center field you can see where the pitch is, inside or outside. You can start leaning.”

— Dale Murphy, New York Times (March 11, 1984)

Although he still struck out too much (a league-leading 133 times), Murphy blossomed at the plate while he settled into his new position. While making his first All-Star squad, the right-handed slugger hit .281 with 33 home runs, 89 runs batted in and 98 runs scored. Defensively, Murphy threw out 11 runners from center field, the third most in the National League. Using modern metrics, Murphy posted a 135 OPS+ and a superb 6.6 WAR. The writers noticed Murph’s transformation, giving him enough MVP votes to finish in 12th place.

1982-83: Two-time MVP

After an average 1981 campaign (.247 BA, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 100 OPS+), Murphy turned into a legitimate star in 1982. He led the Braves to their first playoff appearance since 1969 while earning his first MVP trophy. It was the beginning of a four-year stretch where he played every single game and was one of the sport’s best players. From 1982 to 1985, he was the only player in baseball to hit over 30 home runs with 100 RBI for each season.

Under new manager Joe Torre, the ’82 Braves got off to an incredible start, winning their first 13 games of the season; Murphy did his part, hitting 4 home runs with 12 RBI and a 1.017 OPS. The team didn’t come close to sustaining that level of play, going 76-73 in their final 149 games but it was good enough to win the N.L. West by a game over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

For the ’82 season overall, Murphy hit 36 home runs with a league-leading 109 RBI. Although he still struck out a lot, Murphy also walked more than ever before (93 times), giving him a .378 OBP. With a 142 OPS+, Murphy won the first of four straight Silver Sluggers while defensively, he earned the first of five consecutive Gold Gloves. Unfortunately for the Braves and their star center fielder, the playoffs ended in a three-game sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals, the eventual World Series Champions. The NLCS loss would be Murphy’s only postseason opportunity; he went 3 for 11 (.273) with no RBI.

Murphy upped his offensive game slightly in 1983. He established career highs in all three slash line categories (.302 BA/.393 OBP/.540 SLG) while swatting 36 home runs to go with an N.L.-best 121 RBI. He also scored 131 runs, thanks in part to 30 stolen bases in 34 attempts. At the time, The Murph was just the sixth player in baseball history to record at least 30 taters and 30 steals.

Here’s a sampling of what teammates and others in the game of baseball were saying about Dale Murphy, quoted in a Sports Illustrated piece by Steve Wulf, published in July 1983.

“He’s scary. Do they have something above MVP?”

— Cincinnati Reds manager Russ Nixon

“He’s the best I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen Willie Mays. I watch almost all the Atlanta games on cable television, and I’ve seen Murphy win games every way there is, a base hit in the ninth, a home run, a great catch, beating the throw to first on a double play. I’ve never seen anything like him before in my life.”

— Chicago Cubs pitching coach Billy Connors

“All he does is play baseball better than anyone else.”

— Atlanta Braves manager Joe Torre

The Braves led the N.L. West by 6.5 games as late as August 11th. Murphy had a 2 HR, 5 RBI game on the 11th to raise Atlanta’s record to 70-45. Unfortunately, the team quickly blew that lead by going into a 6-15 tailspin. The Braves finished the season with 88 wins, which was 3 fewer than the N.L. West Champion Dodgers. Murphy remained hot down the stretch (.878 OPS and 39 in the team’s final 47 games) and was thus rewarded with his second straight MVP Award.

According to his 7.1 WAR, 1983 was the best campaign of Murphy’s career at that point in time.

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1984-87: Perennial All-Star

After his back-to-back MVPs, Dale Murphy remained one of the game’s best players but the Braves would not contend again during his tenure in Atlanta. In 1984, he led the N.L. with 36 home runs and the majors with a .547 slugging percentage. He also drove in 100 runs for the third straight season. His totals of runs (94) and stolen bases (19) dipped from his career ’83 season and, with the Braves not a contending team, he finished just 9th in the MVP voting.

In 1985, Murphy had arguably the best offensive season of his career to that point. He led the N.L. with 37 HR, 118 runs, and 90 walks, all while driving in 111 and slashing .300/.388/.539. That slash line translated into a 152 OPS+. Defensively, despite finishing 4th in the league in both putouts and assists for center fielders, modern metrics credit him as 21 runs below average because his Range Factor had dipped. Still, Murphy won his 4th of 5 straight Gold Gloves and finished 7th in the MVP balloting.

After an off-year in 1986 (by his standards, 29 HR, 83 RBI, 121 OPS+), Murphy had another stellar campaign in 1987, hitting a career-high 44 home runs with 105 RBI, 115 runs, a career-high .417 OBP, and a career-best 157 OPS+. He was so feared with the bat that he was intentionally walked 29 times, the most in all of Major League Baseball. Having been moved to right field at the start of the ’87 campaign, Murphy’s defensive metrics improved, helping him to a career-best 7.7 WAR. He finished 11th in the MVP vote.

Murphy was only 31 years old when he hit the 300th home run of his career in late August. He ended the season with 310 career taters, making 400 seem like a cinch and 500 a real possibility. However, 1987 was Murphy’s last season as an All-Star and his last year as a top-level player.

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1988-90: Decline Phase in Atlanta

Dale Murphy, now 32 years old, slumped badly at the start of the 1988 season, hitting .173 with a .545 OPS in his first 15 games. After 45 games, his slash line was .202/.316/.357; he had just 5 HR and 13 RBI in those 45 contests.

He improved slightly during the rest of the season but still finished with a .226 BA to go with 24 homers and 77 ribbies. Those 24 taters along with 35 doubles gave Murphy a respectable .421 SLG and 106 OPS+ but it was still far below his standards. Solid defense in right field also yielded a respectable 3.1 WAR.

Unfortunately, Murphy’s decline as a hitter continued in 1989. He slashed just .228/.306/.361, with the woeful .361 slugging percentage a result in a dip to 20 HR and 15 doubles despite playing 154 games. Murph’s OPS+ of 89 was his lowest since 1978.

1990-93: Final Years in Philadelphia and Colorado

Murphy’s struggles offensively continued in 1990 although his numbers improved slightly from his woeful ’89 campaign. In the middle of the season, after 15 years in Atlanta, Murphy was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies. Given that he had been the face of the franchise for a decade, the trade was a shock to Braves fans. Murphy, however, initiated the process that led to the deal to Philly.

It was the summer of 1990, and things weren’t going that well. The previous two years (1988, 1989) hadn’t been that great either, honestly. The team was struggling, I was struggling. I saw some potential in a few of our young pitchers (like John Smoltz and Tom Glavine), but other than that I didn’t have much of a sense for where the Braves were heading. I talked to Nancy a lot about how frustrated I was and started to realize it might be time for me to move on.

I was aware of what can happen when a long-time player has some success with one team and sticks around longer than he should: production eventually falls off and the team is left with the uncomfortable task of figuring out whether to renew his contract (even though his best years may well be behind him) or release him (usually against popular opinion). The Braves had done so much for me through the years that I just didn’t want to put them in that position.

So I went in and talked to (General Manager) Bobby Cox that August. I told him that, with free agency coming up in a few months, I was thinking it might be time for me to move on.

Soon after this discussion with Bobby, my agent called and told me the Phillies were interested. They had made a trade offer the Braves were willing to accept, and they would renew my contract with an additional two years guaranteed. Nancy and I knew it wouldn’t be easy to transition our eight children to a new city, but going to Philadelphia looked like a great option for us. 

— Dale Murphy (on dalemurphy.com)

Even in leaving the only franchise he had ever known, Dale Murphy was full of class, thinking about what was best for the team.

Now in Philadelphia, Murphy posted a 105 OPS+ for the balance of the ’91 season, finishing the overall campaign with a .245 BA, 24 HR, 83 RBI, and a 99 OPS+.

The now 35-year-old Murphy played his final full season with the Phillies in 1991. In 153 games, he hit .252 with 18 HR and 81 RBI. Thanks to 35 doubles, he posted a 103 OPS+, his best figure with that metric since ’88.

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Murphy was limited by injuries to just 18 games in 1992 and was released by Philadelphia at the end of spring training in 1993. To finish his career, the 37-year-old veteran was signed by the expansion Colorado Rockies. At the time, Murphy had 398 career home runs. Expectations were high that he would pass 400 in the Mile High City. Unfortunately, Murphy was done as a productive player; in 49 plate appearances, he hit just .143 with no home runs and a .391 OPS. His final game was on May 21st, 1993.

The Cooperstown Case for Dale Murphy

If the “character clause” was the top criterion for the Hall of Fame, Dale Murphy would have been a first-ballot inductee. Murphy was as good a face for the game of baseball as the sport could hope for. A Mormon who doesn’t drink or swear, Murphy is one of baseball’s great humanitarians, winning the Lou Gehrig Memorial Award in 1985, the Roberto Clemente Award in 1988, and the Bart Giamatti Community Service Award in 1991.

As it is with Don Mattingly and Albert Belle (both of whom are candidates on the Contemporary Baseball Hall of Fame ballot), the case for Dale Murphy is one of peak performance. For an eight-year period (1980-1987), Murphy was one of the top players in the game. He made 7 All-Star teams during those eight years, won 2 MVPs, won 5 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers, and received enough MVP votes to finish in the top 12 on 6 different occasions, not an easy feat considering the Braves were mostly out of contention for the playoffs.

Take a look at the three phases of Murphy’s career, using average statistics per season. In Murphy’s first two and last two seasons in the majors, he logged less than 80 plate appearances so those years aren’t included.

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So, over the course of 14 years as a full-time player, with 100 being an “average” OPS+, we can see that Murphy was a below-average hitter at the beginning and end of those 14 years, sandwiched around an eight-year peak of excellence. That eight-year peak contained two less than stellar years (1981 and 1986), which leaves us with six Hall of Fame quality seasons. I’m defining his six HOF quality seasons as the six in which he achieved a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 5.0 or above but I don’t need to. All you have to do is look at the stats and you’ll see that these were great campaigns and that ’81 and ’86 were a cut below:

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(statistics in bold indicate leading the N.L., those in bold italics indicate leading all of MLB)

Here is how those numbers translate into season-by-season benchmarks against his fellow sluggers during his career (1976-1993):

• In 4 different seasons, Murphy hit over 30 home runs with over 100 RBI and over 100 runs scored. Only Mike Schmidt had more such seasons (he had five)
• In 5 different seasons, Murphy hit over 30 HR with over 100 RBI and an OPS+ of 125 or above. Again, only Schmidt (8 times) achieved this more.
• In 5 different seasons, Murphy hit over 30 HR with over 100 RBI and a batting average of .280 or above. Nobody else achieved this.

Of course, these notes are a bit gerrymandered to encompass Murphy’s playing years but they still cover an 18-year period of time.

Here’s another way to look at how Murphy dominated the charts offensively during his 8-year peak:

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For an eight-year period, when it comes to driving in and scoring runs (rather important things in baseball), only Schmidt was better than Murphy.

For those of you who are WAR devotees, he ranks 7th but only because the defensive component of WAR does not match the five Gold Gloves that he earned. Still, if you’re a WAR-monger, the seven players in front of Murphy on the list are all in the Hall of Fame. Also, six of the seven players who are behind Murphy on this list are also in the Hall of Fame, the exception being Keith Hernandez, who (in my opinion), should be.

In a piece written by Dan Schlossberg (in 2010) for the Society of American Baseball Research, Schlossberg found some strong advocates:

“The Hall of Fame is looking for stars who were role models. They couldn’t find anybody better than Dale.”

— Phil Niekro (Murphy’s teammate 1976-1983)

“I would love to see Dale in the Hall of Fame. He went from catcher to first base to left field to center field and became a Gold Glove winner. He was MVP twice. And his character, what he does for communities and all that, has to add in somewhere.”

— Bobby Cox (Murphy’s manager 1978-81 & 1990)

If your standard for the Hall of Fame is “one of the best players in baseball for a 7-to-8 period of time,” Dale Murphy passes that test. If showing up for work and performing at a high level is something you’re looking for, Murphy passes. He averaged 159 games played per year from 1982-1990 (playing in all 162 games for four years in a row from 1982 to ’85). If you’re looking for a five-tool player who could hit, hit with power, run a little (161 career steals), throw, and play defense (5 Gold Gloves), Murphy’s your guy.

If you have a different standard, that’s the next discussion.

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The Cooperstown Case Against Dale Murphy

Here are the arguments against Dale Murphy’s case.

#1. He falls short of the benchmark stats you would expect from a Hall of Fame power hitter.

At the time of his retirement, he had 398 career home runs, which put him only 27th on the all-time list, at the time. Today, he’s in 60th place.

Well, that’s true; bad knees forced him to retire early. In his last season, playing with the expansion Colorado Rockies, he hit .143 in 49 plate appearances and couldn’t manage to pass the 400 home run milestone, even at Mile High Stadium.

However, in the context of the time, only two players with 398 or more home runs who had retired in 1993 or earlier are not now in the Hall of Fame. Those two are Dave Kingman, the ultimate one-dimensional player, and Darrell Evans, a long-time corner infielder for the Braves, Giants, and Tigers who Bill James once called the “most underrated player in baseball history” (from the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2003).

The point is that 398 home runs were not a low total through 1993. Hall of Famers Jim Rice, Tony Perez, and Orlando Cepeda all had less.

#2. His offensive numbers were a product of playing half of his home games at “The Launching Pad,” Atlanta Fulton-County Stadium.

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Whoa, Nellie! That’s a pretty big difference. So, was that a phenomenon unique to the Braves outfielder or a general trend?

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OK, it’s a general trend. This is real. From 1976-1990, in the National League, only the players of the Chicago Cubs had a bigger home-field hitting advantage than the players of the Atlanta Braves.

#3. The defensive metrics say that Murphy was not the Gold Glove defender that his hardware says he is.

Well, this is a hard one for me because I have always looked upon retroactive defensive metrics with a lot of skepticism. However, the people who have designed these metrics are highly intelligent. The numbers are based on a variety of readily accessible statistics, such as putouts and assists but they also are framed in the context of the teams on which each player toiled.

Murphy won a Gold Glove Award every year from 1982 to 1986, when he was playing almost exclusively in center field. There were 20 other MLB players who played at least 500 games and 50% of their games in center field during those years. According to the Baseball Reference metric “WAR Runs from Fielding,” Murphy is 21st out of those 21 center fielders.

21st out of 21 players. Dead last.

It is an absolute fact that, until recently, Gold Glove awards were often dispensed to players who made some noticeably great plays and were the stars of the game. I have a hard time believing that Murphy was one of the worst defensive outfielders during the five years that he won his Gold Gloves but that’s what today’s numbers say.

The irony is that, after moving to right field for the 1987 season, those same metrics list him as the 2nd best right fielder for a three-year period (1987-89). Did he suddenly learn how to play defense or is it simply that he didn’t belong in center field? My guess is that the 6’4″ Murphy belonged in right field all along even though he preferred playing center.

#4. His career 46.5 WAR is too low for a Hall of Fame outfielder.

It’s true, the number is low. If elected, his WAR would be tied for the 137th best among all Hall of Fame position players. It would be better than the mark for 32 other players, all but four of whom retired 50 or more years ago. Murphy’s low career WAR is in part due to poor defensive metrics and it’s also due in part to a slow start to his career and a slow end.

In the 1980s, Murphy’s WAR was 47.1. In his seven years that cover the ’70s and ’90s, his WAR is -0.6. That’s not entirely unusual for a Hall of Fame player’s career trajectory, starting and finishing poorly, but Murph’s start and finish were so mediocre that it really hurts his overall case.

But, to be fair, hanging the statistical case against Murphy solely on WAR doesn’t tell the whole story. His career OPS+ is 121 and that’s a little low for a Hall of Fame outfielder. That number is low because of the aforementioned slow start and finish to his career (it was 140 in his best eight years) but it’s also in part due to the favorable hitting environment he enjoyed in Atlanta. That’s a real thing; it can’t be dismissed in the way that one could dismiss his relatively low WAR due to defensive metrics you may not believe.

Only eight enshrined outfielders have a career OPS+ of less than 121. One of those eight is Andre Dawson, a contemporary of Murphy. The Hawk won 8 Gold Gloves to Murphy’s 5 and, according to the metrics, deserved most of them. Dawson’s career WAR was 64.8.

Dale Murphy’s Chances with the Contemporary Baseball Eras Committee

In the history of Hall of Fame inductions, one of the issues that comes up is that the (mostly) earlier versions of the Veterans Committees were often used for cronyism, for the election of unworthy candidates because of an influential advocate on the Committee. Some critics felt that cronyism played a role in the election of Harold Baines four years ago. Baines’ former manager Tony La Russa and former White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf were two powerful advocates that undoubtedly are responsible for his election. Still, Baines had to get 10 other votes, with ex-teammate Roberto Alomar likely among them.

Regardless, if you look at the rolls of Hall of Famers who played in the 1920s and 1930s in particular, you’ll find some candidates that will make you scratch your head to identify what qualified them for a Cooperstown plaque.

When long-time Boston Red Sox second baseman Bobby Doerr passed away in 2017, the news stories indicated that Doerr had been voted into the Hall of Fame in 1986 by the Veterans Committee. A thought bubble passed over my head: “I bet that was the first year that Ted Williams was on the Veterans Committee.” So, I went to one of my favorite books about the Hall, Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? (by Bill James) and voila, there it was on page 259, a list of all Veterans Committee members from 1953 to 1995. Guess who joined the Veterans Committee in 1986? You got it! The Splendid Splinter himself, a long-time teammate and friend of Bobby Doerr. That’s not to say that Doerr is on the list of the unworthy, it’s just to point out that he had a highly influential advocate.

Bobby Cox was on the 2018 committee that picked Morris and Trammell for Cooperstown and chose not to select Murphy. However, none of the players on that committee (George Brett, Rod Carew, Dave Winfield, Robin Yount, Dennis Eckersley, and Don Sutton) were predominantly National League players in the 1980s. All of them played against Morris and Trammell; only Sutton (for a couple of seasons) played against Murph. For whatever it’s worth, Sutton dominated Murphy, holding him to a .179 average in 59 plate appearances.

The 2020 Modern Baseball Committee (which chose Ted Simmons and Marvin Miller but didn’t confer much support to Murphy) was again filled with mostly American League players (Brett, Carew, Yount, Eckersley, and Eddie Murray) with Ozzie Smith being the long ex-player who spent his career in the National League.

Why This Might be Dale Murphy’s Year

At the beginning of the piece, I posited that although I consider Dale Murphy to be a long-shot candidate for the Hall of Fame’s Class of 2023, this might be his best chance at Cooperstown.  There’s a big difference between this ballot (the Contemporary Baseball Players ballot) is different than the Modern Game ballots that Murphy appeared on in recent years. The difference is that those previous ballots were meant for players whose primary impact was from 1970-87. This year’s ballot is a free-for-all for any eligible player who had an impact between 1980 and 2013.

Today we learned the names of the 16 members of the committee. Although none of the committee members have any direct links to Murphy’s playing career, there are two members of the Atlanta Braves “family” (Greg Maddux and Chipper Jones) on the committee. Chipper was quoted fifteen years ago as a fan of Murphy.

“He was the total package: he was among the leaders in home runs every year, he could run, and he was a sparkling defensive player. When you look at his career, certainly he’s a guy who should be considered very, very hard for the Hall of Fame… When anybody compares me to Dale Murphy, I take that as a tremendous compliment and hope I can carry the torch he passed along.”

— Chipper Jones, interviewed by Dan Schlossberg (2007)

There are three big names on this year’s eight-player ballot who exhausted their 10 years of eligibility via the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) this January: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling. All three men would have been inducted into Cooperstown years ago if not for being controversial figures. For Bonds and Clemens, it’s their links to Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs); for Schilling, he’s still on the outside looking in because of his post-playing political views, mostly espoused on his Twitter feed.

I would be surprised if the 16 members of the Eras Committee care about what Schilling wrote on Twitter (the voting members probably don’t spend as much time there as the BBWAA members too).  However, how those 16 voters feel about Bonds and Clemens (and Rafael Palmeiro, also on the ballot and a player whose career ended with a steroid suspension) is uncertain.

Besides Maddux and Jones, the other five player members on the committee are Frank Thomas, Ryne Sandberg, Jack Morris, Alan Trammell, and Lee Smith. Three of those players (Thomas, Sandberg, and Morris) have publicly expressed views in the past against inducting PED users into the Hall of Fame, although Thomas’ views were somewhat moderated when Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Bagwell were inducted. Among the non-player members on the committee is White Sox executive Ken Williams, who has been known to be an anti-PED guy.

So, let’s imagine for a moment that there are in fact five anti-PED hardliners on the committee who will not vote for Bonds, Clemens or Palmeiro. This seems like a strong possibility and may have been the Hall’s intention when putting the committee together. If there are at least five committee members who refuse to vote for Bonds or Clemens, the sentiment in the room might be to focus on the five candidates who were considered clean (Schilling, Fred McGriff, Albert Belle, Don Mattingly, and Murphy).

Anyway, if the committee focuses its collective attention on just those five men, Murphy’s got a shot. In my opinion, he’s the third-strongest candidate among those five (behind Schilling and McGriff). Here’s a look at the statistical resume of McGriff, Belle, Mattingly, and Murphy.

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Although the Crime Dog never won an MVP (Murphy won two, Mattingly one), his overall numbers are so superior that it’s hard to imagine any voter passing him over for any of the other three. But, again, for any voters who dismiss Bonds/Clemens/Palmeiro out of hand, they get to pick three other players. In that scenario, Murphy’s numbers look like the second-best out of these four. Belle was a more dominant hitter but he was also surly and had multiple on and off-field incidents that resulted in suspensions. (For a more detailed comparison of Murphy’s, Mattingly’s, and Belle’s peak years, click here for my piece about Belle).

In the previous segment, I noted that the Hall has often seemed to stack the deck in favor of or against certain candidates. This committee seems to be tailored to help McGriff get elected. But, if it’s also tilted to make it impossible for Bonds and/or Clemens to get to 12 votes, that may accrue to the benefit of the others.

Anyway, as I said, this is a long shot. It would require a high percentage of anti-PED voting members on the committee. The most likely scenario, frankly, is a split vote, where half of the committee votes for Bonds, Clemens, and one other player (probably Schilling or McGriff) and the other half of the committee chooses from the five others.

Still, if being popular, respected and a man of high character is something the committee members are looking for, that will bode well for Murphy. If having been a dominant player for a significant period of time is what they’re looking for, that will also bode well.

Incidentally, there is a very recent precedent for one of these Eras Committees inducting two different players whose career numbers were slightly lacking but were beloved players who were closely associated with one particular franchise. I’m talking about the Golden Days committee vote last December that inducted longtime Minnesota Twins outfielder Tony Oliva and Dodgers first baseman Gil Hodges, who also was the manager of the 1969 Miracle Mets. Murphy’s selection, if it happens, would be similar.

Conclusion

I believe Dale Murphy should be in the Hall of Fame on the basis of being one of the dominant players in the sport for a significant period of time (eight years). It’s true that his case is unmistakably flawed;  there are legitimate reasons against his candidacy. However, I’m a believer in a “big Hall,” which is another way of saying that I believe that the players of the second half of the century should be represented at the same level as the players from the first half.

When a player does not have an overwhelming career case (Murphy doesn’t), I look for three things. One is a good peak case of at least seven years. Murphy has that, as we’ve documented. The second is the importance of that player in the telling of the game’s history. If you were to write a book about baseball in the 1980s, Dale Murphy would play a prominent role. The third is whether there was a significant period of time (at least five years) in which the player was considered one of the best players in the game. If you followed baseball in the 1980s, you know that Murphy was in fact looked upon as one of the game’s very best.

In the 1988 Bill James Baseball Abstract, the author, in his player rating sections, offered a one-word comment about Murphy: the word was “Cooperstown.” This was written, of course, after Murphy’s best season and right before his steep decline but it captures the way people felt about the player at the time.

Every once in a while a player transcends his career numbers. For being one of the very best players of the decade of the 1980s, Dale Murphy deserves a plaque in Cooperstown.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Chris Bodig

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