Don’t Laugh: Bobby Abreu’s Hall of Fame Case

If you’re a mild Hall of Fame enthusiast, you might have read something like this in the postscript of the January 2019 BBWAA election of four players: “The ballot is much less clogged in the next two years, with Derek Jeter the only obvious Hall of Famer becoming eligible in 2020 and no obvious candidates in 2021.” If you read those exact words, thanks for visiting “Cooperstown Cred.” I stand by those words, that Jeter was the only obvious Hall of Famer among those who became first-time eligible in 2020 and that there was no obvious inductee among the newcomers for 2021. There was, however, another first-time candidate from that 2020 ballot who continues to deserve serious consideration. His name is Bobby Abreu.

Even a casual baseball fan should know the name Bobby Abreu, but I doubt very many of you have ever given a second thought to him being worthy of the Hall of Fame. Abreu is one of those players who was sneaky good. Despite a then-record-setting performance in the 2005 Home Run Derby, he wasn’t a home run hitter. At his best, with the Philadelphia Phillies (from 1998-2005), he was overshadowed by players on other teams who were using Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). At “not quite his best” (with the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, and Mets), he was a solid starting player turned DH and pinch-hitter.

When his career ended, after the 2014 season with the Mets, he had accumulated some highly respectable career numbers, even if they don’t scream “Cooperstown” in neon lights. Abreu did a lot of things well offensively but didn’t do anything in spectacular fashion. He had good but not awesome power. He had extraordinary plate discipline, drawing over 100 walks for eight consecutive seasons. He could steal bases at a remarkable rate for a big man (220 pounds), winding up with 400 career stolen bases.

Still, the collective viewpoint of the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) has been that Abreu was not Hall of Fame worthy. Only 22 out of the 397 eligible writers (5.5%) checked Abreu’s name on the 2020 ballot. Abreu did only slightly better in 2021 (8.7%) and in 2022 (8.6%) and improved to 15.4% a year ago. That puts him comfortably above the 5% minimum required to remain on future ballots but far away from the 75% needed for a plaque in Cooperstown.

In this piece, I’ll recap Abreu’s productive career and attempt to answer the question of whether he has deserved better from the members of the BBWAA.

Cooperstown Cred: Bobby Abreu (RF)

5th year on BBWAA ballot in 2023: Received 15.4% of the vote in 2023

• Astros (1996-97), Phillies (1998-2006), Yankees (2006-08), Angels (2009-2012), Dodgers (2012), Mets (2014)
• Career: .291 BA, .395 OBP, .475 SLG, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI, 2,470 Hits, 400 SB
• Career: 1,476 walks (20th most in Major League Baseball history)
• Career: 128 OPS+, 60.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 2-time All-Star, 2004 Silver Slugger, 2005 Gold Glove Award winner
• One of seven players with 250+ HR and 350+ SB (Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Jeter, Craig Biggio, Joe Morgan, Bobby Bonds)

(cover photo: Philadelphia Inquirer)

This article was originally posted in March 2019 and has been updated in advance of the 2024 vote.

Bobby Abreu Career Highlights:

Bob Kelly Abreu was born on March 11, 1974, in Maracay, Venezuela. He grew up playing stickball in his hometown Turnero, an impoverished village in the north-central part of the country. At the age of 16, he was signed as an amateur free agent by the Houston Astros.

After making his Major League Baseball debut in September 1996, he opened the 1997 season as the Astros starting right fielder. However, thanks to an outfield logjam, a fractured hand, and a poor attitude after a demotion to AAA, Abreu was left unprotected for the November ’97 expansion draft. He was selected by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who duplicated Houston’s mistake by trading him on the same day to the Philadelphia Phillies for shortstop Kevin Stocker. 20 years later, the Tampa Bay Times Marc Topkin ranked it as the third-worst move in Rays history.

Philadelphia Phillies (1998-2006)

Phillies manager Terry Francona installed Abreu into a starting role in right field, and the 24-year-old responded with a magnificent inaugural campaign, hitting .312 with a .409 OBP and .497 SLG.

In his first eight superb seasons in Philadelphia, playing mostly for Francona and Larry Bowa, the durable Abreu averaged…

• 157 games played
• 23 HR, 94 RBI, 104 Runs, 29 SB
• .305 BA, .415 OBP, .519 SLG
• 141 OPS+, 5.7 WAR

In the spring of 2002, the consistent Abreu signed the richest contract in Phillies history when he inked a five-year extension worth $64 million.

As a player who was perennially underrated, Abreu wasn’t selected to the All-Star squad until 2004. That year and the following one (2005) were the only All-Star nods in his career. It was on July 11, 2005, at Comerica Park, that Abreu finally gained nationwide fame. Thanks to 18 first-half home runs and a career-best 30 the prior season, Abreu was selected for the Home Run Derby. He responded by winning the contest with a whopping 41 home runs, 14 more than the previous record. Afterward, teammate Jimmy Rollins proclaimed Abreu the “King of Venezuela.”

The effort required to swat those 41 taters seemed to take the steam out of Abreu’s sails. He only hit .260 with 6 home runs after the Mid-Summer Classic. The Phillies, under new manager Charlie Manuel, won 88 games in 2005, finishing one game out of the playoffs, and Abreu’s second-half slump was cited as one of the reasons the Phils fell short.

Even with the slow second half in ’05, take a look at the consistency in Abreu’s numbers with the Phillies.

WP Table Builder

Embed from Getty Images

In 2006, Abreu got off to a slow start (by his standards). In 98 games, he slashed .277/.427/.434 with a 118 OPS+, 8 HR, and 65 RBI. There was grumbling in Philly that Abreu was overpaid and that he didn’t play hard enough.

“I play hard. I might not dive. I might not run into walls. I play every day. I play when I’m hurt. I hear what people say. They say I don’t play hard. They say I don’t care… I care.”

— Bobby Abreu (July 2006), Philadelphia Daily News

General Manager Pat Gillick, citing the need for financial flexibility, dealt Abreu to the New York Yankees on July 30th in a package for four minor leaguers who never amounted to anything in Major League Baseball.

Bobby Abreu with the Yankees (2006-2008)

Abreu got off to a terrific start with the Yankees. In 58 games down the stretch of the ’06 campaign, he slashed .330/.419/.507 with 7 HR and 42 RBI. Overall, in what started off as a mediocre season, the left-handed-hitting Venezuelan hit .297 with a .424 OBP. Despite “only” 15 home runs, he drove in 107 and scored 98 while drawing an MLB-best 124 bases on balls.

In both 2007 and ’08, his two full seasons with New York, he surpassed 100 RBI and 100 runs scored. Defensively, Abreu had been a solid performer in his 20’s but regressed significantly in his 30’s. Baseball Prospectus noted, in its 2008 annual, that Abreu would go back on the ball “with all the enthusiasm of a Roman convict being herded towards the lion’s den.” As we implied previously, this was a criticism that helped to drive him out of Philadelphia.

When he was with the Astros, Abreu came off the bench for three pinch-hitting appearances in the 1997 NLDS. With the Phillies, Abreu never got a chance to perform in the postseason. On the perennially contending Yankees, that changed.

In ’06, Joe Torre’s Yankees easily won the A.L. East; they were matched up in the ALDS against Jim Leyland’s Detroit Tigers. Abreu’s first playoff game in Pinstripes went swimmingly; he went 2 for 5 with a double and 4 RBI in the team’s 8-4 Game 1 victory. Although Abreu hit .300 with a .417 OBP in the next three games, the Tigers won all of them, bouncing the Bronx Bombers in the playoff’s first round.

In 2007, the Yankees were back in the playoffs as the Wild Card entrant. Against the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS, Abreu hit .267 with a home run, 2 RBI, and a .886 OPS, but New York fell in 4 games again. In Abreu’s final season in the Bronx (under new manager Joe Girardi), the team missed the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

Embed from Getty Images

Bobby Abreu’s Final Years (2009-14)

Abreu became a free agent after the 2008 season and signed with the Los Angeles Angels for 2009. In his first two seasons in Anaheim, Abreu continued to be a useful player with the bat, posting a 118 OPS+.

In the ’09 campaign, Abreu drove in 103 runs, scored 96, and stole 30 bases, all three marks which were second-best on the team. In the 2009 ALDS, a three-game sweep over the Boston Red Sox, Abreu played a huge role, slashing .556/.692/.778, which led to 4 runs scored. In the ALCS against Abreu’s former team (the Yankees), however, he hit just .160 with a .276 OBP.

Although he hit just .255 (his lowest total as a full-time player), Abreu had another solid season in 2010. He still contributed 20 HR, 78 RBI, 88 Runs scored, and 24 steals with a 118 OPS+. With 154 games played, Abreu finished a 13-year stretch in which he missed just 72 contests. He played in over 150 games for each of those 13 campaigns; he was the only player in MLB to accomplish this.

Embed from Getty Images

In 2011, at the age of 37, Abreu served mostly as the team’s designated hitter, playing in 142 games, his fewest since 1997. His numbers dipped significantly. His 105 OPS+, while still above league average, was his lowest as a full-time player. He also set career lows (as a full-timer) with 8 HR, 60 RBI, and 54 Runs. Even at 37, he contributed 21 stolen bases, his 13th season with at least 20.

In April 2012, having lost the DH job to Kendrys Morales, Abreu was released. He signed a week later with the other team in Los Angeles and spent the balance of the campaign serving as a part-time left-fielder and pinch-hitter for the Dodgers.

At 39, Abreu could not find a job in 2013 and then spent the 2014 season mostly as a pinch-hitter for the New York Mets. In that, his final baseball campaign, he hit .248 with a 97 OPS+ in 155 plate appearances.

The Hall of Fame Case Against Bobby Abreu

Before going to the case in favor, let’s start with the case against Bobby Abreu for the Hall of Fame. It’s pretty simple. Abreu had an 18-year career in which only twice he was considered worthy of making the All-Star Game. Only once (by Silver Slugger) was he recognized as the best-hitting right fielder in his league.

Abreu received MVP votes in 7 different seasons but was not once ever in the top 10 in his league. One could argue that Abreu, as an on-base machine, was underappreciated in the MVP voting, but the all-around metric of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) only places him in the top 10 of his league once (he was 9th in 1999).

Abreu led the N.L. in games played (162) twice, in doubles once (50 in 2002), triples once (11 in 1999), and walks once (124 in 2006) but otherwise never led his league in any major statistical category.

As far as historical impact goes, Abreu appeared in the playoffs four times (in 1997 with the Astros, 2006 and ’07 with the Yankees, and ’09 with the Angels). However, he was no more than a supporting cast member on any of those teams. Nobody ever wrote, “Abreu led the ______ to the postseason.”

Quick: can you remember one notable thing Bobby Abreu ever did in his 20 postseason games? I couldn’t remember any, but I did find one. In Game 3 of the 2009 ALDS, Abreu hit a 9th inning, 2-out double off Jonathan Papelbon to cut the Red Sox lead to 6-5. Two batters later, Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero delivered a bases-loaded, two-run single to give the Angels a 7-6 win and, ultimately, the victory. It was Abreu who scored the go-ahead run. As we’ve previously noted, the Angels won the ’09 ALDS but then fell to Abreu’s former team, the Yankees, in the ALCS.

Overall, Abreu hit .284 with a .810 OPS, 1 HR, and 9 RBI in 20 postseason games. Not bad, but nothing that augments a Cooperstown resume.

Comparison to Recently Retired Outfielders

Finally, Hall of Fame voting is often a contest between contemporary players at the same position. Let’s take a look at Abreu’s statistics in comparison with several other outfielders who hit the Hall of Fame ballot in the last 15 years.

WP Table Builder

Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds, Johnny Damon, and Lance Berkman all appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot one time and received less than 5% of the vote, eliminating them from consideration on future ballots. Andruw Jones has been on seven ballots and, despite 10 Gold Gloves to go with his respectable power numbers, barely cleared 5% in his first two turns on the ballot. Jones, however, now has serious momentum, having earned 58.1% in the most recent vote.

Gary Sheffield has tremendous hitting numbers; his WAR is similar to Abreu’s because of brutally bad defensive metrics. He got 55.0% of the vote in his 9th turn on the ballot last January and will fall short of 75% this year, his final on the BBWAA ballot.

Of the players on this list, Vladimir Guerrero only needed two years to make the Hall, and Larry Walker finally made the Hall of Fame in 2020 in his 10th and final year on the ballot.

Remembering that WAR is an approximation, it’s not easy to look at these numbers and conclude that Bobby Abreu is more worthy than any of the others. Abreu’s strongest case is that he stole vastly more bases than most of the other hitters with a higher OPS+. However, because Abreu’s “Extra Bases Taken” percentage (42%) is relatively low, his stolen base prowess doesn’t contribute a significant amount to his WAR calculation. By comparison, Damon’s XBT% is 48% while Lofton’s is 55%.

Having said that, many people would argue that some of the other outfielders on this list are, in fact, worthy of the Hall of Fame. I would be one of those people, particularly in regard to Edmonds, who won 8 Gold Gloves and was a significant postseason performer.

So, Abreu’s position on this list is not necessarily an indicator that he is unworthy of the Hall of Fame but an indicator of why he’s having a rough time with the BBWAA voters because he never had the “wow” factor that Guerrero and Jones had.

The Hall of Fame Case in Favor of Bobby Abreu

We can start by saying that one of Abreu’s assets is that he was a reliable contributor to his teams. He came to play and was able to remain durable. He had 13 consecutive seasons in which he logged over 150 games and was a positive contributor (at least offensively) in all of those 13 campaigns. By using the “play index” tool on Baseball-Reference’s Stathead, we can see that in the history of baseball, the only other player to log 150+ games in 13 consecutive seasons is Willie Mays.

In fairness, there are three others who might have (probably would have) achieved this if not for player strikes making 150 games an impossibility: Pete Rose, Cal Ripken Jr., and Rafael Palmerio. Also, Lou Gehrig would be in this group, except that the Yankees only played 149 games in 1935, thanks to tons of rainouts that caused them to play 28 doubleheaders, including 12 in the last 40 days of the season. The team ran out of days to finish the season.

Regardless, when it comes to consistent durability, Abreu has a record that’s hard to beat. It’s also a significant advantage when comparing him to the other players on the previous list. Walker only managed to play 150 games once in his career. Edmonds only played as many as 120 games (not 150) in 11 seasons. Jones played in 150+ games for 11 consecutive seasons but then fell off a cliff, averaging 87 games played in his final 5 campaigns. Lofton only played 150 games twice and only made it to 130 games 9 times.

Showing up for work counts.

The On-Base Machine

Still, unless you play in every game (like Ripken), it’s hard to build a Cooperstown argument based on games played.

To properly make a Hall of Fame case for Bobby Abreu, you have to first and foremost understand the value of the ability to get on base. In most of the history of Hall of Fame voting, when it comes to corner outfielders, voters have looked for high-average hitters, home run hitters, or stolen base artists.

There are 31 Hall of Fame right fielders or left fielders who made their MLB debut after the end of the dead ball era (debuted in 1920 or later). 18 of those 31 had a career batting average of .300 or better. Of the other 13, all but 4 had at least 350 home runs. Three did neither but stole over 800 bases (Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, Tim Raines).

Abreu doesn’t fit into any of these buckets, falling just a little bit short with a .291 average, 288 taters, and 400 steals. What Abreu has is something that is slowly but surely being recognized throughout the game, and that is the ability to get on base. His 1,476 walks are the 20th most in the history of baseball. Of the 19 players ahead of Abreu on the all-time walks list, all but four are in the Hall of Fame. Two (Barry Bonds and Pete Rose) are outside of Cooperstown for reasons that have nothing to do with their statistical worthiness.

The other two are Darrell Evans and Eddie Yost. The case of Evans (1,605 BB), an overlooked star third baseman from the 1970s and ’80s, represents the challenge Abreu faces. He hit for power (414 HR) and had a high OBP (.361) for the era, but his .248 average was a non-starter when he hit the Hall of Fame ballot. As for Yost, he was a walking machine (1,614) but only accumulated 1,863 hits and 139 home runs compared to Abreu’s 2,470 and 288.

Embed from Getty Images

The “Times on Base” (TOB) Club

If you add up all times players reached base (hits, BB, HBP, and times reaching base on an error) during their careers, Abreu ranks 52nd with 4,051 times reached. There are 11 players with more TOB that are not yet in the Hall: Rose, Adrian Beltre (a lock for a plaque in a couple of weeks), two players who are not yet eligible but certain future inductees (Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera), four PED-linked players (Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Sheffield, Manny Ramirez), Omar Vizquel, and Rusty Staub.

Staub, beloved by fans of the Montreal Expos and New York Mets, is one of those players from the 1970s that some people feel deserved a closer look at the Hall. However, compared to Bobby Abreu in a sentence? Abreu had 83 more extra-base hits despite 1,148 fewer plate appearances. As for Vizquel, he was doing very well in the BBWAA voting (49.1% in 2020) and seemed likely to make it to Cooperstown thanks to his fielding reputation, but he has fallen off a cliff in the voting because of two personal scandals.

In baseball history, there are 87 players who have logged at least 10,000 plate appearances. Abreu’s TOB total is 46th best among these 87; he’s ahead of Lou Brock, Mike Schmidt, Roberto Alomar, Eddie Mathews, Roberto Clemente, and 20 other Hall of Famers.

Plus, there’s this remarkable comparison between Abreu and another left-handed-swinging right fielder, the late Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn:

• Abreu reached base by hit, walk, or HBP 3,979 times in 10,081 career plate appearances
• Gwynn reached base by hit, walk, or HBP 3,955 times in 10,232 career plate appearances

That’s a different way of saying that Abreu’s career .395 on-base percentage was superior to Gwynn’s .388 career OBP, despite the eight-time batting champion having a huge edge in batting average (.338 to .291). And, yes, Abreu scored more runs (1,453) than Gwynn (1,383).

This isn’t to say that Abreu was a better offensive performer than Gwynn (the Padres legend toiled in pitcher’s parks and in a less super-charged offensive era) but that it’s a lot closer than their first-ballot Hall of Fame support (97.6% for Gwynn, 5.5% for Abreu).

The 100 Walk/100 Run Club

Bobby Abreu hit 3rd in the lineup in 67% of his career plate appearances. This is a spot in the order traditionally reserved for the team’s best hitter. It’s a spot in the order where the player is expected to drive in runs. In eight different seasons, Abreu did, in fact, drive in 100 or more runs. In the first five of those 100 RBI seasons, Abreu drove those runs while also drawing over 100 walks.

If you’re not going to drive in a run but take your free base instead, it’s good to be able to score after taking the walk. Although, as we saw earlier, Abreu didn’t have a high percentage of Extra Bases Taken, he did swipe 400 bases while only being caught 128 times (a not-great but solid 76% success rate).

Embed from Getty Images

Anyway, Abreu had 6 different seasons in which he walked 100 or more times while also scoring 100 or more runs. In the history of baseball, only 14 players have managed that many 100 Run/100 BB seasons. Besides Bonds, the 12 others are not just Hall of Famers but almost all first-ballot Hall of Famers (Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Ted Williams, Henderson, Joe Morgan, Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Schmidt, and Jeff Bagwell).

Twice when walking 100 times, Abreu fell just shy of 100 runs (99 scored in 2003, 98 in 2006). If you create a “98 Run/100 BB” club, Abreu is one of just seven players to achieve this eight times (Bonds, Gehrig, Ruth, Thomas, Thome, and Williams are the others).

Bobby Abreu’s Seven-Year Peak (1998-2004)

Bobby Abreu’s peak was at the height of the PED era (1998-2004). Here is how he ranked in certain statistical categories:

• WAR (41.6): 6th (behind Bonds, Rodriguez, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Scott Rolen)
• OPS+ (143): 13th (behind 6 PED-linked players plus Carlos Delgado, Helton, Giles, Edmonds, Walker, and Berkman)
• Times on Base (1,999): 4th (behind Bonds, Helton, and Bagwell)
• Doubles (286): 2nd (behind Helton)
• Walks (739): 2nd (behind Bonds)
• OBP (.416): 6th (behind Bonds, Helton, Walker, Jason Giambi, Ramirez)
• SB (203): 6th (behind Tony Womack, Eric Young, Luis Castillo, Damon, and Juan Pierre)

As you can see, Abreu is very high on the list in multiple categories in a diverse portfolio of extra-base power, on-base ability, and the ability to swipe a bag.

If you go by the all-encompassing WAR, he’s right behind the two PED poster children (Bonds, A-Rod), recently elected Hall of Famer (Rolen, his teammate with the Phillies), and two players currently on the Hall of Fame ballot (Helton and Jones), both of whom now seem likely to make the Hall of Fame in the next couple of years.

The point of this boring story is that to recognize the excellence of Bobby Abreu, you have to look at his all-around game. The only part of the “all-around” that’s missing here is defense, which is rated as average by the metrics during his peak.

Lost in a Crowd?

As you can see, Bobby Abreu does indeed have a strong argument for the Hall of Fame. There is, of course, also a strong argument against him. The problem with the positive aspects of Abreu’s Cooperstown case is that they involve comparisons to other players who are considered good candidates but are not yet in the Hall.

• He’s one of only seven players with 250+ HR and 350+ SB. Three of those seven are not in the Hall (Abreu, Barry Bonds, and his father Bobby). Bonds, the father, had an excellent career and a reasonable case for the Hall, but he’s not in it.
• Abreu is 20th on the all-time walks list, but he’s behind Darrell Evans, who is underrated and maybe should be in the Hall of Fame, but he isn’t.
• Almost every eligible and non-PED-linked player with more times on base than Abreu is in the Hall of Fame except Rusty Staub. However, he reached base just 37 times more than Harold Baines, who did get a plaque in Cooperstown this past summer but whose selection was widely derided. Additionally, he’s just 110 times on base ahead of Luis Gonzalez.
• Abreu is on an impressive list of players with multiple seasons with 100 Runs and 100 Walks (six times), but Eddie Yost did it 5 times. Nine players who aren’t in the Hall have done it 4 times.

It’s a fact that, if you’re a WAR-monger, Abreu (60.2) has a higher one than the recently inducted Vladimir Guerrero (59.5). It’s also higher than Ichiro Suzuki’s (60.0), who is widely considered a lock to make the Hall on the first ballot in 2025. Without going into detail, I would say that if you were to rank players from the 1990s and 2000s, virtually nobody would rank Abreu ahead of Vladdy or Ichiro.

On the other hand, Abreu’s WAR is lower than the aforementioned Rolen (70.1), Lofton (68.4), Jones (62.7), Helton (61.8), and Edmonds (60.4).

What’s the Elevator Pitch?

Here is the problem with the Hall of Fame Case for Bobby Abreu: what’s the elevator pitch?

How could you sell Abreu to a skeptic, one not schooled in sabermetrics, between the 1st and 20th floors of your office building or hotel?

“He played over 150 games for 13 straight years!”

“Like Ripken?”

“Well, not quite, but he was 20th all-time in walks!”

“So what? How about home runs? Hits?”

“He walked 100 times and scored 100 runs eight times!”

“So, other people walked him, and other people drove him in.”

He was 6th in WAR for a 7-year period!!!

“Why is this elevator so slow???!!!”

What the Writers Have to Say

Bobby Abreu has yet to surpass 15.4% in the Hall of Fame vote in his first four turns on the BBWAA ballot, so there isn’t a plethora of proverbial ink spilled on why he belongs in the Hall of Fame. There are a few advocates, however, worth noting:

“A five-tool player with dazzling speed, a sweet left-handed stroke, and enough power to win a Home Run Derby, Abreu was a stathead favorite thanks to his otherworldly plate discipline. He posted on-base percentages of .400 or higher eight times (.395 for his career) thanks to his ability to take a walk (100 or more eight years in a row). Yet despite routinely reaching traditional seasonal plateaus — a .300 batting average (six times), 20 homers (nine times), 30 steals (six times), 100 runs scored and batted in (eight times apiece) — he was ridiculously under-appreciated by the mainstream, making just two All-Star teams.”

— Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs (Dec. 29, 2023)

“Abreu is not a no-doubt Hall of Famer. And if the Hall of Fame was only comprised of no-doubters — the Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Babe Ruth types — I would not vote for him. But, folks, the Hall is not small, and I’ve voted for Abreu every year… There are only three players in MLB history with at least 275 career home runs, 400 stolen bases and an on-base percentage of .375 or better. Those three: Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson and Bobby Abreu… From 1998 to 2004, Abreu produced an average slash line of .308/.416/.525, with a low bWAR of 5.2 and a high of 6.6 (average of 5.9). That’s incredibly brilliant consistency.”

— Ryan Fagan, The Sporting News (Jan. 3, 2023)

“I did vote for Bobby Abreu, who has an intriguing, albeit, borderline statistical case… His numbers are compelling—he reached base more times than Tony Gwynn, for instance. And I think it’s important to make sure we think about overall value when voting for the Hall of Fame. He’s highly unlikely to come close this year. But with open slots on my ballot, I decided to vote for him, hoping voters give him a closer look in the future.”

— Rustin Dodd, The Athletic (Jan. 8, 2023)

“In each of his first three seasons, Abreu was never top 10, but over the course of those three seasons, he was the sixth-best player in baseball by Wins Above Replacement. In the end, I couldn’t ignore that he finished his career with more WAR, homers, stolen bases, and a better OPS than more than half of the current Hall of Fame outfielders. Consistent excellence deserves to be applauded.”

— Eno Sarris, The Athletic (Jan. 8, 2023)

And, last, some naysayers, with the caveat that the vast majority of writers only explain why they voted for a player, not against him:

“I’m on the fence. For now, I’m swayed by the fact that the two-time All-Star would seem out of place in a Hall of Fame. He delivered under-the-radar excellence over a long career — though he was no Dwight Evans (who should be in the Hall). I can’t recall thinking or hearing a case for him as an all-time luminary among right fielder.”

— Alex Speier, Boston Globe, (Jan. 10, 2023)

“There’s usually one guy on every Hall of Fame ballot who has me absolutely stumped. Bobby Abreu is that guy on this ballot… Even looking back, purely from a statistical standpoint, I don’t see any year when Abreu was really a top-end MVP candidate… When Abreu was playing, I would call him the MBGPIBH — Most Boring Good Player In Baseball History. And maybe the way he would grind at-bats into C-Span has affected my thinking. But for now, I just don’t have Abreu in my Top 10 on this ballot. But I do reserve the right to reconsider.”

— Joe Posnanski, JoeBlogs (Jan. 24, 2022)

Conclusion

When it comes to Bobby Abreu and the Hall of Fame, although he’s always been on the fence for me, I made him a “yes” on my 2023 virtual ballot, and I intend to do so again this year. I never felt like I was watching a Hall of Famer when he was playing, but he has a sneaky strong case that’s based on being a really good offensive baseball player at a variety of aspects of the game while also being remarkably durable.

I decided to put Abreu on my virtual ballot because I’m a big Hall advocate. There are dozens of Hall of Fame players (mostly from the first half of the 20th century) who were inferior to Abreu. However, I do also think there are a great many of his peers (both currently on the ballot, recently purged from it, and coming in the upcoming years) who I feel have better cases.

If you go strictly by Baseball-Reference WAR, his 60.2 was tied for the 9th best (with Andy Pettitte) on the 2024 ballot and a voter is limited to 10 selections. I don’t go strictly by WAR; I use it as a guide to further study. If a player’s WAR is surprisingly high (like Abreu’s), that’s a beacon that tells me that more analysis is required. That’s what this piece was all about.

Abreu’s case is strong enough that it deserves a multi-year examination. How many still-active players will, in the next 10 years, surpass what he’s accomplished? If the answer is “many” he’s not a Hall of Famer, if the answer turns out to be “hardly any,” then the case is more compelling.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on X @cooperstowncred.

Chris Bodig

Embed from Getty Images