Dusty Baker Gets His Ring, Clinches His Plaque in Cooperstown

Tonight at Minute Maid Park, Dusty Baker‘s Houston Astros defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-1 in Game 6 to win the 2022 World Series title. Left fielder Yordan Alvarez, who started Houston’s march to the title with a walk-off 3-run home run in Game 1 of the ALDS, was the hero in Game 6. The tall left-handed slugger mashed a 450-foot blast to center field for a 3-run homer in the bottom of the 6th to give Houston a lead they would never relinquish.

Besides being a team victory, it’s also a crowning achievement for the 73-year-old Baker, who has finally won a World Championship as a manager in his 25th season in a Major League Baseball dugout. Baker is the oldest manager ever to win the World Series.

Over those 25 years, Baker has won 2,093 regular season games, which is the 9th most for any skipper in baseball history. His teams have won 90 or more games 12 times in 25 years. He’s led his teams to the postseason 12 times, the fourth most times for any MLB skipper. But the managerial World Series Championship had always eluded him, until now.

“I thought about it a lot. I tried not to dwell on it, but tried to have faith and perseverance and knowing that with the right team and the right personnel and the right everything that this is going to happen. Had this happened years ago, I might not even be here. So maybe it wasn’t supposed to happen so that I could hopefully influence a few young men’s lives.”

— Dusty Baker (November 5, 2022)

Baker has often said that if he won one World Series, he might as well win two. “But you got to win one first,” Baker said Saturday night. “The one was hell to get to this point. But it was well worth it.”

In 1981, Baker won a title as a player with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Twenty years ago, in 2002, Baker was in the dugout when the San Francisco Giants had a 5-0 lead in the 7th inning of Game 6 of the World Series, nine outs away from the title. But the Giants’ bullpen melted down; the Anaheim Angels rallied to score six runs in the 7th and the 8th to win the game and, ultimately, the Fall Classic. The 2002 World Series was the first disappointment in which would be an endless parade of frustrating finishes for Baker’s teams. Including the Game 6 and 7 losses in 2002, over a 16-year period, Baker’s teams suffered through a shocking 1-13 record in potential postseason-clinching games. The ghosts of October haunted Baker’s teams in San Francisco, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Washington. It was only after getting the job with the Houston Astros in 2020 that Baker and his teams started to exorcise their October demons.

The Astros were the best team in the American League in 2022, winning 106 regular season games, the most ever for a team managed by Baker. In October, the Astros cruised through both the American League Division Series and League Championship Series, sweeping the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS and the New York Yankees in the ALCS. In the World Series against the Phillies, the Astros blew a 5-0 lead in Game 1, easily won Game 2, got blown out in Game 3, won with a combined no-hitter in Game 4, and narrowly won Game 5.

In the bottom of the 9th of Game 5, it looked as if the ghosts of Baker’s past were ready to return. With Houston clinging to a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 9th inning, J.T. Realmuto hit a drive to deep right-center field that would have put the tying run on 2nd or 3rd base with two-time MVP Bryce Harper coming up. But center fielder Chas McCormick made an acrobatic catch right up against the wall to record the second out of the inning. Closer Ryan Pressly then hit Harper with a pitch before retiring Nick Castellanos for the final out, setting up the clinching party in Houston tonight.

Dusty Baker’s Road to Houston

Five years ago, after a crushing loss in the National League Division Series, Baker was fired as the manager of the Washington Nationals. Given that Dusty was 68 years old, it seemed as if his managerial career had ended. Baker and the fans of the teams he had skippered were seemingly cursed. Washington’s Game 5 loss in the NLDS represented the 10th consecutive postseason tilt in which a Baker-led team had a chance to clinch a series and failed to do so. Although Baker had an impressive 22-year managerial record at the time, many people felt that his lack of a World Series title would keep him out of the Hall of Fame.

After being fired by the Nationals, it seemed as if Dusty Baker’s managerial career was over. Two years after being fired, Dave Martinez skippered Washington to a World Series title over the Houston Astros. Then, in the 2019-20 offseason, a scandal enveloped the Astros that dated back to their 2017 championship victory over the Dodgers.

The team came under fire and ridicule for having participated in a widespread sign-stealing scheme. The sign-stealing scandal resulted in one-year suspensions for manager A.J. Hinch and General Manager Jeff Luhnow; team owner Jim Crane subsequently fired the two. The collateral damage led to the Boston Red Sox parting ways with manager Alex Cora and the New York Mets letting go of their skipper Carlos Beltran. Both Cora and Beltran were intimately involved with the mechanics of the sign-stealing plot. (Boston rehired Cora in advance of the 2021 campaign).

In the aftermath of the scandal, the Astros needed a skipper who would instantly restore credibility to the franchise. Although ace starting pitcher Gerrit Cole had left as a free agent for the New York Yankees, Houston retained a team of supremely talented players. However, those players were about to go through a gauntlet of name-calling, boos, and taunts from opposing fans on a daily basis. This team needed a players’ manager, one who knows how to handle a clubhouse and how to take the heat off his players. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale called the then-70-year-old Baker the “perfect choice” for Houston.

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As we all know, the 2020 season was delayed by several months due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Dusty’s debut as the Astros’ skipper finally occurred on July 24th in Houston, in front of empty stands at Minute Maid Park. Justin Verlander, the reigning Cy Young Award winner, pitched 6 innings of 2-run ball and earned the victory over the Seattle Mariners. Unfortunately, Verlander had to leave the game with a forearm strain. He hoped to come back in 2020 but, ultimately, had to undergo Tommy John surgery and has not pitched since.

Even though the Astros were without both Cole and Verlander in the 60-game regular season, the team’s pitching wasn’t bad. Surprisingly, it was the offense that struggled: the entire infield (Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman) had substandard offensive campaigns. The Astros played under .500 ball in Baker’s maiden season with the team (29-31) but still made the postseason because of the expanded playoffs.

In the “Wild Card” round of the COVID-inspired 16-team playoffs, Houston swept the Minnesota Twins in two games. The second win (sparked by Correa’s 7th-inning, go-ahead solo home run) broke Baker’s 10-loss streak in potential clinchers. In the ALDS, against the Oakland Athletics, the Astros won the first two games but couldn’t close the deal in Game 3, another clinching opportunity lost for Dusty Baker. But the ghosts of San Francisco, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Washington didn’t return. The Astros won Game 4 to set up an ALCS matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Ultimately, Baker’s postseason ride would come to an end. The Tampa Bay Rays had a 40-20 regular-season record, the best in the league, and defeated the Astros in a 7-game ALCS, played in “the bubble” in San Diego’s Petco Park. Still, the Astros could show pride that they battled back with three consecutive wins (after losing Games 1-3) to force a Game 7. Correa again redeemed his weak regular-season effort with the signature moment of the postseason for Houston with a walk-off home run to win Game 5 in what was ultimately a losing effort.

Fans returned to the ballpark in 2021, many of whom enjoyed taunting Astros players about the sign-stealing scandal. Dusty Baker also returned and guided the team to a 95-win season, which was good enough for the A.L. West title. It was the 7th time in his 24-year managerial career that one of Baker’s teams won at least 95 games. On this edition of the Astros, the four infielders who had subpar seasons in 2020 all returned to form. With right fielder Kyle Tucker and DH Yordan Alvarez also mashing, Houston scored the most runs in the American League. Dusty was also blessed with a solid pitching staff; led by Lance McCullers Jr. and Framber Valdez, the Astros posted the 4th best ERA in the league.

Ultimately, Baker’s Astros navigated the first two rounds of the playoffs to make it back to the World Series by defeating Tony La Russa’s Chicago White Sox in the ALDS and the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS. For the Astros, it was their third Fall Classic appearance in five seasons; for Baker, it was his first pennant since 2002. In the year in which the great Hank Aaron passed away, the baseball gods smiled upon the Atlanta Braves but that didn’t obscure the fact that a great baseball man was back on center stage in the Fall Classic.

2022: 106 Wins

The 2021 season ended in disappointment for Dusty Baker and the Houston Astros but the Astro faithful had every reason to be optimistic about the 2022 season. The main change was the return of two-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, who missed almost all of the previous two campaigns. Verlander responded with a season (18-4, 1.75 ERA) that will likely net him a third Cy Young trophy. Verlander was the leader of a deep staff that led the A.L. with a 2.90 team ERA.

Shortstop Carlos Correa departed as a free agent but rookie Jeremy Pena emerged as a worthy replacement; he’ll likely finish in the top three of the Rookie of the Year voting. Yordan Alvarez had a monster year (.306 BA, 37 HR, 97 RBI, 187 OPS+) while second baseman Jose Altuve had arguably his best campaign since he was the A.L. MVP in 2017.

After a relatively slow 11-11 start, the Astros got hot, winning 23 out of the next 30 games to open a 7.5-game lead in the A.L. West. The team cruised for the rest of the season, winning 106 games to win the West by 16 games over the Seattle Mariners.

In the newly expanded 12-team playoffs, the Mariners matched up in a three-game Wild Card series with the Toronto Blue Jays and won the series in a two-game sweep, setting up an ALDS matchup against Houston. In Game 1, the M’s pummelled Verlander for 6 runs and 10 hits in 4 innings to take a 6-2 lead. The Astros chipped away at the lead but still trailed 7-5 entering the bottom of the 9th inning. The Astros put two runners on against Paul Sewald, prompting M’s manager Scott Servais to summon left-handed starting pitcher Robbie Ray (the 2021 Cy Young winner) to face the lefty-swinging Alvarez with two outs and those two runners on base. Alvarez proceeded to swat Ray’s second offering deep to right field for a three-run walk-off home run, giving Houston an 8-7 victory. It was the first time in the history of postseason baseball that a player hit a walk-off home run to win a game with his team trailing by more than one run.

After the stunning Game 1 victory, the Astros followed up by winning Game 2 by a 4-2 score, with Alvarez bringing the thunder with a go-ahead, opposite field, two-run tater in the bottom of the 6th. In Game 3, back in Seattle, the team’s pitchers matched zeroes for a remarkable 17 innings before Pena hit a solo home run in the top of the 18th to lead the Astros to a three-game sweep and an ALCS rematch with the New York Yankees, who they defeated in both 2017 and 2019 to lead to a pair of World Series appearances.

In Game 1 of the ALCS, Verlander returned to his regular-season form; he dominated the Bronx Bombers with six innings of one-run ball, all while striking out 11 batters. The Astros won 4-2 and followed up with a Game 2 victory behind seven strong innings from Framber Valdez. The Astros then completed the sweep with two victories at Yankee Stadium, with ALCS MVP Pena again starring with a game-tying three-run HR in the top of the 3rd inning of Game 4. For the series, 10 Astros pitchers held the Yankees to a .162 batting average (.502 OPS). Aaron Judge, who hit 62 home runs in a magnificent season in which he’s a lock to be the A.L. MVP, went just 1 for 16 and made the last out of the series.

The 2022 World Series

The Houston Astros, back to the Fall Classic for the second year in a row under Dusty Baker, once again were matched up against an N.L. East team that won less than 90 games. In 2022, it was the 87-win Philadelphia Phillies, who were the third Wild Card in the new 12-team postseason party; the Phillies would not have made the playoffs in the previous 10-team format.

Regardless, the Astros came into the series heavily favored and got off to a 5-0 lead in Game 1, thanks to a pair of home runs by right fielder Kyle Tucker. With Verlander on the hill, victory seemed nearly certain, but the 39-year-old ace faltered in the 4th and 5th innings, giving up five runs to allow the Phillies to tie the game. After a battle of the bullpens, Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto hit a solo home run off Luis Garcia in the top of the 10th to give the Phillies an unlikely 6-5 victory.

The Astros won Game 2 behind another strong start by Valdez. With the series back in Philadelphia, the Phillies pounded Lance McCullers for five home runs in 4.1 innings. Phillies star Bryce Harper, who is having a breakout postseason, got things started with a big two-run blast in the first inning. Baker, who has sometimes been known to have a slow hook in his managerial career, left McCullers in to face the top of the Philadelphia lineup for the third time in the bottom of the 5th, with the Astros trailing 4-0. After Kyle Schwarber hit a massive home run to straightaway center field and Rhys Hoskins followed with a solo blast, it was 7-0 and the game was essentially over. The final score remained 7-0. Although many have questioned Baker’s decision to leave McCullers in for the fifth inning, the move ultimately saved Houston’s top relievers for both Games 4 and 5.

Game 4 was a classic. After getting shut out in Game 3, the Astros returned the favor in Game 4, with Christan Javier, Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressly combining for the first no-hitter in World Series history since Don Larsen’s perfect game in 1956.

Verlander returned to the bump for Game 5 with the big proverbial monkey on his back for having never won a World Series start in his first eight tries (he was 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA). The Astros got off to a 1-0 lead in the top of the first but the Phillies tied it up when Schwarber deposited Verlander’s second offering into the right field seats for a leadoff tater. The Astros’ ace battled for the rest of his five innings but managed to keep the Phillies from scoring again and left with a 2-1 lead thanks to a third-inning homer by Pena. Four Astros relievers (Hector Neris, Abreu, Montero, and Pressly) then combined to hold Philadelphia to just one run in the final four innings, with Pressly getting only the second five-out save of his career and Verlander getting that elusive Fall Classic win.

Twenty years after Dusty Baker’s Game 6 disappointment with the San Francisco Giants, his Houston Astros closed the deal and captured the title with tonight’s Game 6 victory. With the win, it has likely ended any controversy about whether Baker eventually deserves that plaque in the National Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown. The balance of this piece will make that case.

Cooperstown Cred: Dusty Baker (25 seasons as MLB manager)

• Giants (1993-2002), Cubs (2003-06), Reds (2008-13), Nationals (2016-17), Astros (2020-2022)
• 2,093-1,790 (.540) regular-season record; 2,143 total wins (including postseason)
• 2,093 regular-season wins are 9th most all-time
• Career: 253 games above .500; 12th best in MLB history since 1901
• Led teams to 12 playoff appearances, tied for 4th most in MLB history (behind Cox, Torre, La Russa)
• Won 90 or more games in 12 of his 25 seasons
• Won 95 or more games in 8 of his 25 seasons
• 3-time manager of the year (1993, 1997, and 2000)
• As a player: .278 BA, 242 HR, 1,013 RBI, 37.0 WAR in 19 MLB seasons

(cover photo: AP Photo)

The Hall of Fame Case for and Against Dusty Baker

I think any Hall of Fame analyst would agree that, now that the Astros have won the 2022 Fall Classic, Dusty Baker finally has the “missing piece” of his Cooperstown resume. However, let’s suppose that the Phillies had broken Baker’s heart this weekend. Would Baker have wound up in the Hall of Fame anyway? Would his regular-season record and well-earned reputation as a turnaround artist be enough to give him a plaque in Cooperstown?

There are really two questions in play here. The first is “will he?” The second is “should he?”

For the “will he” question, I believe that Dusty Baker will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Managerial candidates are voted upon by what is now known as the “Eras” Committees (formerly known as the Veterans’ Committees). The 16-member panels are customarily populated by six to seven Hall of Fame players, one or two Hall of Fame managers or general managers, a few other MLB executives, and a couple of long-time media members.

Three factors make me think Baker will get the call for the Hall.

1. He is well-liked and well-respected in the game, especially by current and former players alike. So, no matter what members fill that 16-person committee, he’s likely to have some strong advocates from the ranks of the players.
2. He has the numerical longevity (9th in career wins) to qualify on the “volume of work” test. He also has, despite many disappointments, the 12 different squads he has led to the postseason, which is the 4th most in history. Former players are likely to give him a pass for the bad luck of the Giants pitchers blowing the 5-0 lead to the Angels, the Bartman play, the Gonzalez error, the Rolen error, Scherzer’s 4-run inning in Game 5 in 2017, and the fact that the Braves outpitched the Astros in 2021.
3. He would be the first African-American manager to be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

This last point is the most important and will not be overlooked when it comes time to vote for him. It’s not just that Baker would be the first; he’s the only candidate we’re likely to see for two decades. He is the only black man in the top 50 of all-time managerial wins. The late Frank Robinson is 58th, but Frank wasn’t a great skipper, and he’s already in the Hall of Fame as a star player. Cito Gaston won two World Series titles with the Toronto Blue Jays, but he only won 894 games, which is 75th on the all-time list.

In 2017, Baker was one of just two African-American managers in the majors, the other being Dave Roberts, who beat Baker and the Nats in the 2016 NLDS as the skipper of the Los Angeles Dodgers. In 2021 and 2022, again, Baker and Roberts were the only two black managers in the majors. Roberts, who has now won three pennants and a World Championship, is a rising managerial star (albeit one that many Dodger fans love to hate), but he’s only 50 years old and has only been in the dugout for eight years. So it will be anywhere from 15-25 years before, maybe, if he maintains his success, Roberts will be a Cooperstown candidate.

It’s now been 75 years since Jackie Robinson broke the color line. There will soon be enormous institutional pressure to put a deserving black managerial candidate into the Hall of Fame. Because of Baker’s ranking on the all-time wins list, any claims that his induction was influenced solely by the color of his skin can be easily dismissed.

Does Dusty Baker Deserve to Make the Hall of Fame?

Now, to the other question: if we are to be color-blind, does the body of Baker’s work in the dugout merit a Cooperstown plaque?

The argument against comes down to three points. The first is obvious, that his teams lost 10 straight games in postseason-clinching scenarios before he took the reins in Houston. The second point is the argument that those failures are because Dusty Baker is not a great in-game manager, a deficiency that was magnified in October. As previously noted, Baker’s teams had a shockingly bad 1-13 record in postseason clinching opportunities between Game 6 of the 2002 World Series and Game 5 of the 2017 NLDS. This chart shows the details of the ghouls that haunted Baker’s teams over the years.

For the 10th time in 15 years, one of Baker’s teams was on the brink of advancing to the next round of the playoffs, needing just one win to seal the deal, and for the 10th time, his team failed to win. So here is the complete record, going back to 2002, when his San Francisco Giants were one game away from winning the World Series.

MWP = Maximum Win Probability Expected, which indicates the high point of the statistical odds that Baker’s team would win each game.

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As you can see, with the singular exception of Game 5 of the 2003 NLDS, Dusty’s teams lost every single game in which they had a chance to clinch ever since that infamous Game 6 in 2002.

The Game 5 loss cost Baker his job, even though Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo referred to him as a “Hall of Fame manager.”

The third point against his Cooperstown candidacy is that Baker’s overall managerial record is skewed by reaping the benefits of Barry Bonds’ PED use. It’s true that Bonds turned himself into Superman starting with the 2000 season. In 2002, Bonds posted an 11.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), fueled by 46 home runs and 198 walks, leading to a ridiculous slash line of a .370 BA .582 OBP, and .799 SLG. The ’02 Giants made it to the playoffs as the N.L. Wild Card, finishing 3 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Without Bonds, the Giants wouldn’t have sniffed the 2002 postseason.

Points in Favor

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It will probably come as a great surprise to the reader that Baker’s accomplishments, based on this rating system, but him nearly in the league of Sparky Anderson, who won three World Series titles (two with Cincinnati, one with Detroit).

In the James methodology, Baker gets a lot of credit for managing teams to records above expectations, better than even Anderson, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre, and fellow turnaround artists Davey Johnson, Lou Piniella, and Billy Martin. And, by these criteria, Baker is the 5th best manager of the LCS era, behind only proverbial giants (Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa, Joe Torre, and Anderson).

Incidentally, if you’re surprised to see Bruce Bochy so low on this list, it’s because of his years managing the San Diego Padres, which gives him an under-.500 career record. In this writer’s opinion, his three World Championships will easily trump that record, and Bochy will make the Hall of Fame although his time on the ballot will have to wait because he decided to return to the dugout as the skipper of the Texas Rangers in 2023.

Anyway, by itself, this chart doesn’t confer a Cooperstown plaque to Dusty Baker; it’s based on a formula devised by one man, albeit the most brilliant man about baseball statistics who has ever walked the earth. The point is what the rankings tell us about the men they’re ranking. It’s giving Dusty Baker credit for his longevity, propensity to manage winning ball clubs, and ability to guide his team to exceed expectations.

Conclusion

Dusty Baker made his Major League Baseball debut with the Atlanta Braves in 1968. He was in the on-deck circle in 1974 when Hank Aaron hit his 715th career home run.

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He won three pennants and a World Championship as a player with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He spent 25 years in the dugout as an MLB manager, winning more games than all but 8 men in the history of baseball.

Throughout his career, Baker has been given credit for being a great players’ manager, and for creating a winning atmosphere. After two years under Matt Williams, he was the perfect hire in Washington in 2016, and he led the team to two consecutive Division Titles. Then, the Houston Astros viewed Baker as the ideal hire for a talented team tainted by the controversy of the sign-stealing scandal, and he rewarded that faith with three straight ALCS appearances, two consecutive pennants, and, finally, a World Championship.

The Hall of Fame is filled with men who were great players in the regular season but didn’t produce much in October. It’s rare for a Cooperstown-enshrined manager to fit that description, but if there were ever a manager worthy of the ultimate honor with only one championship ring, it’s Dusty Baker.

This man was respected enough to be hired five times and was allowed to skipper his squads for 3,883 regular-season games and 96 more in the postseason. So is it fair to penalize him for 10 bad losses out of 3,979 games managed? I don’t think so.

Additionally, I think the historical significance of being the best African-American manager in history with the likely advocacy of multiple other Hall of Fame players will win the day. Dusty Baker’s going to get into the Hall of Fame.

Thanks for reading.

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