Félix Hernández: No Longer a Future King of Cooperstown

Thursday night at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, long-time Mariners starting pitcher Félix Hernández made what was likely his final start in the only Major League Baseball uniform he has ever worn. Hernández, who is beloved by Mariners fans at a level only matched by the recently inducted Hall of Famer Edgar Martinez, has made 418 starts for Seattle, starting in 2005 when he was just 19 years old.

It was an emotional night on Thursday, for both the fans in attendance and the pitcher himself. King Félix, as he is known to Mariners’ faithful, labored through 106 pitches in 5.1 innings, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits. The highlight was, in the top of the 5th, when Hernández got out of a 2-out, bases-loaded jam thanks to a diving catch in left-center field by Dylan Moore. If you just watched the reaction from the King, you would think the Mariners had just clinched the pennant.

After the emotional end to the 5th, manager Scott Servais let Hernández return to the mound in the top of the 6th. Then, after Félix retired the first batter, Servais came out to get the ball, allowing the King to soak in the adoration of the fans, take a final bow and acknowledge the throng of supporters in the left-field section known as the “King’s Court.”

Hernández has struggled mightily in the last few seasons after being one of baseball’s top starters for over a decade. He has been so bad this season (1-8, 6.40 ERA) that some question whether he will ever pitch in the majors again. This is the story of a magnificent career that is possibly ending prematurely due to Hernández’s inability to do what so many pitchers do, adapt his game to compensate for the vagaries of the aging curve.

After his first 11 seasons, Hernández looked like a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Now, only an unlikely career renaissance will result in a statistical resume that justifies a Cooperstown plaque.

“Hernández’s career arc is fascinating and tragic. It’s Shakespearean in its triumph and turmoil. Meteoric rise followed by a steady fall with no vindication in the end.”

— Ryan Divish, The Seattle Times (Sept. 22, 2019)

Cooperstown Cred: Félix Hernández (SP)

• Seattle Mariners (2005-2019)
• Career: 169-136 (.554), 3.42 ERA in 2,729.2 IP
• Career: 117 ERA+, 50.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 2010 A.L. Cy Young Award winner (13-12, 2.27 ERA, 174 ERA+)
• 6-time All-Star

(cover photo: Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Genna Martin)

Félix Hernández: Before the Majors

Félix Abraham Graham Hernández Gárcia was born on April 8, 1986, in Valencia, Venezuela. The Hernández family lived comfortably in Valencia’s middle class; his father owned a trucking company.

As a young hurler who was already throwing at 90 MPH by the age of 14, Hernández was just a few months past his 16th birthday when he was signed as an amateur free agent by the Seattle Mariners. The M’s had been following Félix for years but weren’t the only organization to notice the young prospect. Hernández signed for $710,000 but actually turned down more money from the Yankees and Braves, choosing the Seattle organization because his boyhood idol Freddy Garcia was pitching in King County.

Hernández began his professional career in 2003 and spent less than three full seasons in the minor leagues before making his Major League Baseball debut. The big right-hander, as he blitzed through the minors, knew he was good: his baseball glove was embroidered “Félix el Cartuella” (roughly translated to “Félix the Badass.”) He also picked up the nickname “King Félix” before ever throwing a pitch in the majors.

In 2005, Félix was tabbed by Baseball America as the top pitching prospect in baseball. After 14 starts at Tacoma (AAA) in the Pacific Coast League (in which he posted a 2.25 ERA), the 19-year-old Hernandez was promoted to the big club in early August.

“We had a little pressure in some corners to not rush the kid … he’s too young… I was taught and still believe that young prospects should face some adversity in the minor leagues. Moving him aggressively was a no-brainer, but I still failed the adversity thing… It’s not my fault Félix kicked everyone’s ass everywhere he went.”

— Bill Bavasi, Mariners General Manager (reported in The Athletic, Sept. 19, 2019)

2005: 19-Year Old Félix in King County

Félix Hernández made his MLB debut in Detroit, on August 4, 2005. Pitching for first-year Mariners manager Mike Hargrove, Hernández went just 5 innings in his opening outing, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) to go with 3 hits, 2 walks, and 4 strikeouts. After that decent debut, King Félix was lights out, pitching 8 innings in each of his next three starts, giving up just 3 runs on 13 hits in 24 innings, with a scant 2 free passes against 26 K’s.

In his 6th start, at Safeco Field against the New York Yankees, Hernández lost 2-0 to former Mariners’ ace Randy Johnson. The nearly 42-year-old Big Unit was impressed by his 19-year-old counterpart, remarking that Félix had “endless ability.” Hernández finished his abbreviated rookie campaign with a 4-4 record and a 2.67 ERA.

2006-2009: Road to the Kingdom

On his Baseball Reference page, Félix Hernández is listed as 6’3″ and 225 pounds. In the spring of 2006, Félix showed up to training camp at 246 pounds and would later refer to that version of himself as “Fat Félix.” The extra weight resulted in shin splints and a very poor first two months of the season, in which he posted a 5.78 ERA. Hernández did better for the rest of the year (3.92 ERA in final 20 starts) but it was still a disappointing sophomore campaign.

King Félix came back in 2007 in much better shape and it showed. He went 14-7 with a 3.92 ERA. In 2008, he went 9-11 with a 3.45 ERA, another solid campaign but not one that made him look like a future Hall of Famer. In his first four seasons overall, Hernández posted a 3.80 ERA with a 1.319 WHIP. Using advanced metrics, his WAR was 12.0 for those four years (24th best in MLB); his adjusted ERA+ of 114 ranked behind 21 other hurlers.

The highlight of the 2008 season for Hernández was a June 23rd matchup against the New York Mets and fellow Venezuelan Johan Santana. Félix beat the Mets with his bat, not his arm. In the second inning, in his first at bat of the season, he hit a grand slam off Santana. Unfortunately, the highlight game also was a lowlight, since Hernández twisted his ankle before he could finish 5 innings and landed on the disabled list.

Hernández finally earned his regal nickname in 2009, his breakout campaign coming at the age of 23. King Félix went 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA (with a 5.9 WAR and 171 ERA+). For his efforts, the young M’s right-hander earned his first All-Star berth and finished 2nd in the Cy Young balloting behind Zack Greinke.

2010-12: Cy Young and Beyond

The 2010 season for Félix Hernández ended in somewhat of a breakthrough for the baseball writers covering the sport. Because his teammates scored only 3.1 runs per game in his 34 starts, Hernández had a middling 13-12 won-loss record even though he led the A.L. with a 2.27 ERA. Despite solid seasons and higher win totals from David Price (19-6, 2.72 ERA), CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA), and Jon Lester (19-9, 3.25 ERA), the members of the BBWAA tasked with voting on the Cy Young Award conferred the trophy to King Félix, choosing to reward him for his superior run prevention numbers rather than punish him for having “only” 13 wins.

Hernández truly did have to earn those 13 wins. Only twice did he give up as many as 2 runs, yielding 1 or fewer in 11 of the 13 victories. Additionally, he had 11 other starts in which he tossed at least 7 innings while giving up 2 runs or less (7 no decisions and 4 losses). The Hernández Cy Young of 2010 was seen as a turning point in the emerging “war” (pun intended) between old-school writers and those who looked at sabermetrics. Besides leading the league in ERA, he also led the league in Wins Above Replacement for pitchers with a 7.2 mark.

Following his Cy Young campaign, King Félix had an off year in 2011 by his standards (14-14, 3.47 ERA) but literally became a part of what used to be called Safeco Field. In late May, a special cheering section for Hernández, dubbed “King’s Court”, debuted at Safeco near the left field foul pole.

After the off-year, King Félix rebounded in 2012, going 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA along with a 5.3 WAR. On August 15th, on a sunny day in Seattle, Hernández authored the 23rd perfect game in baseball history, a 113-pitch masterpiece in which he faced the minimum of 27 batters against the Tampa Bay Rays, punctuated by 12 strikeouts.

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2013-14: A Fortune Worthy of a King

From 2005-12, Félix Hernández toiled for a team that missed the playoffs every year, only once getting within even 10 games of the postseason party. The biggest stars of the 1990s Mariners (Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., and Alex Rodriguez) all had the opportunity to participate in October baseball but all three left the franchise in order to earn bigger dollars elsewhere.

In the spring of 2013, the Mariners’ organization decided not to allow that to happen to their home-grown pitching ace. Hernández was inked to a seven-year contract worth $175 million. On the day of the signing, the King announced that Seattle was “home” and that he would always “do my best; better than my best.”

In the first three seasons of his new seven-figure deal, King Félix earned the princely sum he was earning. In 2013, he went 12-10 with a 3.04 ERA.

In the ensuing offseason, Seattle management decided that 2014 was the year the team was going to contend for the playoffs; free agent second baseman Robinson Cano was signed to a massive 10-year, $240 million contract and, lo and behold, the team did in fact win 87 games and were in contention until the final week of the season.

Hernández was particularly superb, going 15-6 with a league-leading 2.14 ERA, 0.915 WHIP, and 6.4 WAR, all while striking out a career-best 248 batters. Unfortunately, King Félix saved his worst start for his second to last. In a crucial outing in Toronto on September 23rd, Hernández was bombed, giving up 8 runs (4 earned) in 4.2 IP. He won his final game of the season but the M’s fell one short game of a Wild Card berth.

Still, despite the disappointing finish, it was a great season for Hernández; he finished second (barely) in the Cy Young balloting to Cleveland’s Corey Kluber (18-9, 2.44 ERA, 8.3 WAR).

2015-16: Chinks in the Armor

King Félix got off to another great start in 2015, going 8-1 in his first 10 starts to go with a spiffy 1.91 ERA. Starting in June, however, he became unusually inconsistent. Look at the first four starts he made in June:

• June 1 (vs. NYY): 4.2 IP, 6 Hits, 7 ER
• June 6 (vs. TB): 7 IP, 2 Hits, 1 ER
• June 12 (at HOU): 0.1 IP, 5 Hits, 8 ER
• June 17 (vs. SF): 8 IP, 4 Hits, 0 ER

Take a wild guess which games Hernández won and which he lost (we went 2-2 in those 4 outings, seeing his ERA balloon from 2.51 to 3.38 in that one horrendous start). In his final 16 efforts, King Félix was mostly effective (with 10 quality starts) but had a couple more blowout outings; he gave up 7 ER in 6.2 IP against Arizona in late July and a horrific 10 ER in 2.1 IP at Fenway Park in mid-August.

At the end of the season, Hernández was 0-4 with a 20.57 ERA in those four miserable outings. In his 27 other starts, he was 18-5 with a sterling 2.25 ERA. Talk about a Jekyll and Hyde campaign!

The 2016 season wasn’t quite as herky-jerky but it could best be described as average: he was 11-8 with a 3.82 ERA in 153.1 innings; Hernández missed nearly two months due to a strained calf, an injury sustained while celebrating a teammate’s home run. It was the first time since his rookie season that Félix failed to log at least 190 innings.

2017-19: Descent into Mediocrity

In the last three seasons, Félix Hernández has toiled through a myriad of injuries and consistently dwindling effectiveness. Take a look at the steady decline of the King.

• 2017: 6-5, 4.36 ERA (96 ERA+), 86.2 IP
• 2018: 8-14, 5.55 ERA (74 ERA+), 155.2 IP
• 2019: 1-8, 6.40 (68 ERA+), 71.2 IP

In his early 20’s, Hernández consistently threw his fastball in the mid-’90s. In the last two seasons (his age 32 and age 33 seasons), his fastball velocity has been barely over 90 MPH, the same level that it was reported to have been when he was 14 years old.

Before the 2018 season, pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. urged the King to try to pitch to contact, to get batters to hit the ball earlier in the count.

Hernández appeared to buy in to the new approach for a while, but he would eventually go back to what he had always done — pumping fastballs — while never acknowledging that he was a lesser version of the player he had been. Team sources said he was reticent to accept the club’s efforts to help from an analytic standpoint, eschewing scouting reports and bio-mechanical data used by other pitchers.

— Corey Brock, The Athletic (Sept. 19, 2019)

In 2018 and ’19, there were 126 pitchers who tossed at least 200 innings. Hernández posted a negative WAR (-1.8), the worst among all pitchers in baseball. His actual ERA (5.82) and adjusted ERA+ (71) are also last among all of those 126 hurlers.

If you add in the 2017 season, there are 115 hurlers who have logged at least 300 innings. Again, Hernández’s WAR (-1.2) is the worst among all 115; his 5.42 ERA was 111th out of 115, and his ERA+ (76) is the second to worst, behind only Matt Harvey, the former Dark Knight of Gotham.

Thursday night in Seattle, King Félix made what is likely the final start of his career in a Seattle Mariners uniform. It was, on a balance, a superb 15 years with the M’s but a reign that ends on a bittersweet note.

“It didn’t happen all at once. There wasn’t a seminal moment when you realized it was over, no major injury signaling the end… Maybe it would’ve been better that way… Instead, the decline started gradually and increased with a steady pace that he couldn’t slow, stop or even realize until it was too far gone… Many could see it coming, even when Hernandez couldn’t or wouldn’t.”

— Ryan Divish, The Seattle Times (Sept. 22, 2019)

Will Félix Hernández Pitch Again in Major League Baseball?

The answer to this question is something, of course, that we do not know yet. After earning over $200 million in 15 years, the best Hernández can hope for is the MLB minimum salary, possibly with incentives. Baseball’s current minimum salary ($555,000) is hardly a pittance but it might feel like one to a player who’s been used to making over $20 million per year. It’s also possible (likely, even) that the best King Félix will command is a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

In today’s game of baseball, almost all organizations value players in the same way. The game has become harsh to aging veterans. Hernández will turn 34 next April. That hardly makes him a graybeard. Three of the top pitchers in the sport (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke) are 35 years of age or older. But they are the rarity, unique pitchers who have continued to re-invent themselves. In total (in 2019), there are only 14 hurlers who are in their age 34 seasons or older who have logged as many as 100 innings.

Compare this to 1999 (20 years ago), when there were 25 pitchers (age 34 season or above) who threw at least 100 frames.

The point here is that the odds are significantly against a pitcher who no longer has a guaranteed contract making a comeback at the age of 34. The odds are even higher against a hurler who has never shown an inclination to adapt to the vagaries of Father Time.

Putting Félix Hernández’s First 11 Years into Context

Even though King Félix debuted at the tender age of 19, the Mariners were careful to limit his innings. He tossed 191, 190.1, and 200.2 innings in his first three full MLB seasons (his age 20-22 campaigns). When a starting pitcher dominates throughout his 20s, that’s a great formula to become a future Hall of Famer. Even if said starting pitcher becomes merely “average” in his 30s, the head start advantage makes it easier to accumulate significant counting stats.

Look at what Hernández accomplished prior to his 30th birthday (this covers the 2005-15 seasons):

• 2,262.1 IP, 143-101 (.586), 3.11 ERA, 2,142 SO, 128 ERA+, 50.0 WAR

In all of baseball history, there are a grand total of five pitchers who have logged 2,000 innings with 2,000 strikeouts and an ERA+ of at least 125 before their age 30 season. The five are Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Sandy Koufax, Bert Blyleven and Félix Hernández.

If you take the K’s out of the equation (because we all know that it’s easier to strike hitters out today than ever before), let’s play a different game. There are only 16 pitchers in the modern game (pitchers who debuted in 1901 and later) who have 2,000 IP with an ERA+ of 125 or better before their age 30 campaign. The list includes 13 Hall of Famers plus Roger Clemens, Dave Stieb, and Félix Hernández.

I wrote about Stieb (the excellent Blue Jays hurler from the 1980s) recently. He and Hernández have a lot in common. Both toiled in northern cities outside of the bright lights of the major markets of the USA. Both were arguably the best pitcher in baseball for an 11-year period of time. And both started breaking down after their respective 11th MLB seasons.

As I detailed in my piece about Stieb, he, Ron Guidry, and Hernández are the only three pitchers between 1889 and 2015 who have led the majors in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for an 11-year period who are not in the Hall of Fame.

The 11-Year Run of Félix Hernández

Having made that comment, let’s look at how Hernández stands up against his contemporaries for the time period of 2005 and 2015, the first eleven seasons of his career, ranked by WAR:

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When you consider that Clayton Kershaw‘s career began in 2008 and Roy Halladay‘s ended after 2013, it’s pretty clear that King Félix was the best pitcher in baseball for the entirety of those 11 years. Put another way, if you could get into a time machine and travel back to the spring of 2005 with the task of choosing one pitcher for these 11 seasons, you would pick Hernández, or maybe Justin Verlander.

Is there a Hall of Fame Case for Félix Hernández if His Career is Over?

It’s sad that the question needs to be asked, whether there is a Cooperstown case for Félix Hernández.

We’ve already seen that Hernández was arguably the best pitcher in baseball for 11 years. There’s a part of me who thinks that should be enough. 11 years is a long time, a statistically valid sample. But that’s not the way it is. Sometimes a player can be statistically the best for a 10-11 year period of time simply because the better player/pitcher debuted a few years later or their career ended a few years earlier.

The career of King Félix, if it is over, looks very similar to the careers of a couple of other recent top-flight starters whose careers ended in the last 10 years:

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You might be surprised to see Hernández’s numbers up against Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson, both of whom will be eligible for the Hall of Fame ballot in December 2020. Additionally, Johan Santana and Roy Oswalt both had brilliant but truncated careers. Santana won 2 Cy Young Awards; Oswalt didn’t but finished in the Top 5 in five of his first six seasons. Both Santana and Oswalt were on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot in the last two cycles; neither got close to the 5% support necessary to appear on future ballots.

Using a shorter peak (7 years, the standard used by many analysts), Santana (156 ERA+ from 2002-08) was better than Hernández (138 ERA+ from 2008-14).

The Bottom Line

Félix Hernández has had an excellent Major League Baseball career but, if it’s over, he’s probably not going to make the Hall of Fame, not until there’s a seismic shift in standards that starts electing peak performers like Santana and Oswalt.

If, on the other hand, the King is able to re-invent himself as a prince, maybe as a relief pitcher or as a respectable 3rd or 4th starter for a few years (as CC Sabathia has done recently as his skills deteriorated), he has a shot. I’m not counting on it. I would guess it’s a 50-50 chance that the MLB reign of King Félix is over, meaning that his career has ended. I hope that’s not the case. I would love to write a piece in the next two years entitled “Return of the King.”

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

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