First Time Candidates on the 2019 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot

The names of 35 candidates were revealed Yesterday for a potential spot in the Hall of Fame Class of 2019. On Monday, the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) announced 20 first time candidates who will appear on the writers’ ballot.

Each voting member of the BBWAA is allowed to vote for up to 10 players (the “rule of 10”) on their ballot and as few as none at all. Any candidate who gets at least 75% of the vote will be inducted into the Hall of Fame next summer. Candidates who receive less than 5% of the vote will be removed from future ballots.

Earlier today, I provided a capsule look at the 15 candidates who are returning from previous BBWAA ballots. In this, Part Two, I’ll go through the statistical credentials of the 20 newcomers, highlighted by Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Todd Helton, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Miguel Tejada and last, but certainly not least, the late Roy Halladay.

(cover photo: AP/Matt Slocum & espn.com)

The Top 7 First Time Candidates for the 2019 BBWAA Ballot

Mariano Rivera: Relief Pitcher

• Career: 82-60 (.577 WL%), 2.21 ERA, MLB-record 652 Saves
• Career: 205 ERA+, 56.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 2.21 career ERA is best in MLB in last 100 years (min. 750 IP)
• 205 career ERA+ is best in all of MLB history (min. 750 IP)
• 13-time All-Star
• Career in post-season: 141 IP, 8-1, 42 saves (out of 47 chances), 0.70 ERA

This piece is about 20 different first time candidates so I am choosing to spend just a few words on the best of those 20. The numbers above speak for themselves. The biggest question I have about Mariano Rivera, who spent his entire career with the New York Yankees, is whether he will be the first player in the history of the Hall of Fame to be selected unanimously.

If you can’t wait to read about Mo, a year ago I published a series of in-depth articles on the history of relief pitching. Rivera, of course, was prominent in those articles. In Part Four of this series (chronicling the top closers from 1988 to the present day), I presented some interesting biographical details about the Great Mariano.

Part Five of the series took a look at the top relief pitchers in postseason baseball. Yes, there might be a place for Rivera in that piece.

In the final installment (Part Seven), I explained why Rivera is the best relief pitcher of all-time. In case you’re wondering what might be interesting in such an obvious conclusion, I also explain why Rivera, even as a relief pitcher, can be fairly ranked as one of the top overall players in the sport’s long history.

Roy Halladay: Starting Pitcher

• Career: 203-105 (.659 WL%), 3.38 ERA
• Career: 131 ERA+, 65.5 WAR
• 131 park-adjusted ERA+ is 7th best in last 100 years with 2,500 min IP
• Two-time Cy Young Award winner (with Toronto in 2003, Philadelphia in 2010)
• Pitched perfect game in 2010 and no-hitter in Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS
• 8-time All-Star

It was just over a year ago that the devastating news hit the media landscape. Roy Halladay, former ace hurler for the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies, had died at the age of 40, perishing in the crash of a plane he was piloting in the Gulf of Mexico.

As you can see by the numbers above, Doc Halladay was a fantastic pitcher, arguably one of the two best (with Justin Verlander) in the 21st century. Shoulder woes ended his career after the 2013 season, at the age of 36. As a result, Doc’s career win total of 203 is a little bit low, compared especially with Mike Mussina, sitting on the ballot with 270 W’s.

I’m not sure how the voters will respond to Halladay’s candidacy. A year ago, I thought that voters would look for any excuse to put him into the Hall of Fame, in order to provide some closure to his family. Now that we’re one year removed, I’m not sure. I’m certain he’ll make it at some time but less certain it will be on the first ballot.

For me, Halladay is a sure-fire Hall of Famer based on the summary listed above. Forget about the low win totals. The guy dominated. In an era when starting pitchers are throwing fewer and fewer innings, Halladay tossed 67 complete games, far more than anyone else since he made his MLB debut.

For more on what makes Roy Halladay a Hall of Famer as a player, please visit this piece (an appreciation) I published shortly after he passed away last year.

Andy Pettitte: Starting Pitcher

• Career: 256-153 (.626 WL%), 3.85 ERA
• Career: 117 ERA+, 60.7 WAR
• 5 times in top 6 of Cy Young Voting
• 3-time All-Star
• Career postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA in 276.2 innings

The next two candidates are big mysteries for me, in terms of what level of support they’ll get on their inaugural Hall of Fame ballots. I’ve listed Andy Pettitte before Todd Helton because I’m certain that, at the very least, he’ll get more votes.

Pettitte has the benefit of a high win total, impressive winning percentage, five rings and the most postseason wins of any pitcher in the history of baseball.

On the flip side, his career ERA (3.85) is high. Jack Morris had a 3.90 and it took him what seemed like a century to make it into the Hall.

The other thing, and I’ll get into this in more detail in the coming month, is that Pettitte was rarely one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball. When I went through the year-by-year exercise of who were the 10 best pitchers, his name was almost never on the list.

Pettitte pitched for 18 years, 15 with the New York Yankees and 3 with the Houston Astros. Every one of those 18 teams had winning records and 13 of them made it to the postseason. For voters who still pay attention to wins and losses, it’s easy to discount Pettitte’s 256 wins as being an inflated total, caused by the excellence of the teams he played for.

Pettitte is an admitted PED user. Did you forget? In December 2007, he admitted that he used human growth hormone (HGH) to help him recover from an elbow injury in 2002. Pettitte made the admission a couple of days after being named in the Mitchell Report on Steroids.

I would expect that Pettitte will get a healthy number of votes this year, enough to be safely above the 5% minimum threshold but far, far short of the 75% needed for election. That’s a big, messy middle and I have no idea whether he’ll be a forgiven PED user or a vilified one.

I’m looking forward to the “early voting” (on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker) to see what voters are checking his name.

Todd Helton: First Baseman

• Career: .316 BA, .414 OBP, .539 SLG, 369 HR, 1,406 RBI, 2,519 Hits
• Career: 133 OPS+, 61.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 5-time All-Star
• 4-time Silver Slugger
• 3-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 2nd most assists & 3rd most DP turned for 1B in MLB history

The ultimate Hall of Fame fate for Todd Helton is another mystery to me. He has some great numbers but his profile looks remarkably similar to the one of his former Colorado teammate, Larry Walker.

Both Helton and Walker have superior “rate” stats but fall short on the “counting” stats. Walker has more home runs and a higher career OPS than Helton despite playing many seasons in Montreal and St. Louis while Helton spent his entire career calling Coors Field his home. Walker also has a higher OPS+ (which is designed to strip out the Coors impact) and a higher WAR.

The point here is that Walker has never gotten more than 34% of the BBWAA vote in 8 years on the ballot. That doesn’t augur well for Helton. I could see him getting as little as 10%. I could also see him getting close to Walker’s total but have a hard time seeing how any voter would check Helton’s name and not Walker’s.

After many years of resistance, I concluded that Walker is worthy of the Hall of Fame. I intend to dig into Helton’s case soon. I’m inclined to think that he’s also worthy but not this year. To me, he’s not one of the ten best candidates on this year’s ballot.

Lance Berkman: Outfielder/First Baseman

• Career: .293 BA, .406 OBP, .537 SLG, 366 HR, 1,234 RBI
• Career: 144 OPS+, 52.1 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• Career postseason: .317 BA, .417 OBP, .532 SLG, 9 HR, 41 RBI (224 PA)
• 2011 World Series with St. Louis: .423 BA, .516 OBP, .577 SLG

I would be shocked, absolutely shocked, if switch-hitting Lance Berkman survives to see another year on the BBWAA ballot. The guy was a great and underrated hitter but he has the problem of a career that just didn’t last long enough.

From 2001 to 2008 (an 8-year peak with the Houston Astros), Berkman had the tied for the 7th highest WAR in baseball, behind luminaries Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Carlos Beltran, Ichiro Suzuki and Chipper Jones. Interestingly enough, he was tied for 7th with Todd Helton.

During that same peak, by OPS+, Berkman’s 151 tally is tied for 6th behind Bonds, Pujols, Manny Ramirez, A-Rod and Jim Thome (tied with Chipper and Jason Giambi).

Besides his prodigious peak, Berkman is also one of the top postseason performers of the Wild Card era and one of the heroes of the St. Louis Cardinals’ World Series victory over the Texas Rangers in 2011.

Berkman’s and Helton’s offensive profiles are remarkably similar. The reason Helton’s WAR is higher is because Helton was a really good defensive first baseman whereas Berkman (whether in the outfield or at first) was merely average.

On MLB Now on Monday, former manager Bobby Valentine said that Berkman should be in the Hall of Fame for switch-hitters, for whatever that’s worth.

Again, given how many good returning and first time candidates are the the 2019 ballot, I fear Berkman will be a first ballot casualty.

Roy Oswalt: Starting Pitcher

• Career: 163-102 (.615 WL%), 3.36 ERA
• Career: 127 ERA+, 50.0 WAR
• 3-time All-Star
• 6 times in Top 6 of Cy Young Voting
• 2nd in 2001 N.L. Rookie of the Year Vote (14-3, 2.73 ERA, 170 ERA+)
• MVP of 2005 NLCS vs the St. Louis Cardinals (2-0, 1.29 ERA)

At the end of the 2007 season (his 7th in MLB, all with the Houston Astros), Roy Oswalt absolutely looked like a future Hall of Famer in the making. At the time, Oswalt had a 112-54 (.675) record with a 3.07 ERA, a robust 43% better than league average (based on his 143 ERA+). He was a two-time 20-game winner who had finished in the Top 5 of the Cy Young vote in five of his seven campaigns.

For those 7 years, nobody had more wins, if you care about wins. Only Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana had a lower ERA and only Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling had a higher WAR.

Taking a longer view (10 years from 2001-2010), only CC Sabathia and Roy Halladay had more wins. Only Halladay and Santana had a higher WAR and the same are the only two who had a lower ERA or adjusted ERA+.

Oswalt’s Hall of Fame problem is that, after those first 10 seasons, he only pitched 230.1 innings for the rest of his career, posting a 4.92 in three partial seasons between Philadelphia, Texas and Colorado.

You might have noticed the name Johan Santana. In 2018, he was on the BBWAA ballot. He got just 2.4% of the vote and is ineligible for future ballots. Santana won two Cy Young Awards. He had a higher WAR and lower ERA than Roy Oswalt.

I argued last year the Santana deserved a longer look due to his peak value. Oswalt’s career is similar to Santana’s except that he wasn’t quite as good and didn’t win any Cy Youngs.  My expectation is that his result on the 2019 ballot will be no different than Santana’s was in 2018.

Miguel Tejada: Shortstop

• Career: .285 BA, 307 HR, 1,302 RBI, 2,407 Hits
• Career: 108 OPS+, 47.3 WAR
• 6-time All-Star (MVP of 2005 game)
• 2002 A.L. MVP: .308 BA, 34 HR, 131 RBI, 108 Runs, 204 Hits
• 7 straight years with 20+ HR and 95+ RBI
• Played in 1,152 consecutive games from 2000-2007 (5th longest streak ever)

When I read the list of names of first time candidates in most of the media, the names Rivera, Halladay, Pettitte and Helton are almost always mentioned. Sometimes I see the names Berkman and Oswalt. Almost never do I see the name Miguel Tejada, despite the fact that he played the same position (shortstop) and had a higher career WAR than Omar Vizquel, who got 37% of the vote in his maiden BBWAA ballot in 2018).

If you had asked a group of 100 baseball writers after the 2006 season whether Tejada was a future Hall of Famer, I’d wager that most would have said “yes.” Tejada was in the middle of the 5th longest consecutive games played streak in the history of baseball. He was a former MVP and a shortstop who, in 7 years between Oakland and Baltimore, had averaged .297 with 29 HR, 116 RBI and 102 Runs over that 7-year period.

Tejada’s consecutive games played streak ended when he was hit by a pitch on the left wrist on June 20, 2007. The next day, in his first at bat, he bunted into a force play and was then replaced by a pinch runner. After the game, the Orioles announced that he had a broken wrist.

In the off-season after 2007, Tejada was traded to the Houston Astros and he was never the same caliber of player again, despite two final All-Star nods. In his final years, Tejada bounced around from Houston, back to Baltimore, to San Diego, to San Francisco and to Kansas City in 2013.

Tejada’s career record is under a cloud because of multiple documented links to Performance Enhancing Drugs. First, he was named in Jose Canseco’s book Juiced as someone “interested” in steroids. Next, when Baltimore teammate Rafael Palmeiro became the first high-profile star to be suspended for PED use, Palmeiro fingered Tejada as the person who gave him the “supplement” that he believed to be a vitamin.

Tejada was also named in the Mitchell Report on Steroids, which came out one day after he was traded to Houston.

It was in the final year of his career (with Kansas City) that Tejada then pulled a Palmeiro by failing two drug tests. Tejada tested positive twice for amphetamines (a product that hundreds of players used decades ago). Tejada claimed to have been in the process of re-applying for a therapeutic exemption but chose not to appeal his 105-game suspension. He never played in the majors again.

Because of the stacked Hall of Fame ballot and the fact that, as good as he was, he is at best #5 of #6 among the first time candidates, Tejada is almost certain to be a first ballot casualty, falling below 5% of the total vote and therefore ineligible for future BBWAA ballots.

Fun Fact: Tejada is one of 4 shortstops in the history of baseball with at least 200 HR, 1,000 RBI and 2,000 Hits. The others are Robin Yount, Cal Ripken Jr. and Derek Jeter. A lot of stats like this are gerrymandered, where the player one is trying to elevate is barely above the minimums. Not in this case. Tejada had 107 more HR, 302 more RBI and 407 more Hits than the listed minimums.

Other First Time Candidates on the 2019 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot

The rest of the first time candidates on the 2019 BBWAA ballot are not going to make it into the Hall of Fame without a ticket. These were all good players but not worthy of plaques in Cooperstown. With the possible exception of Michael Young, I would be surprised if any of the next 13 candidates get even a single vote for the Hall. Still, it’s fun to remember their very good careers.

Michael Young: Infielder

• Career: .300 BA, 185 HR, 1,030 RBI, 1,137 Runs, 2,375 Hits
• Career: 104 OPS+, 24.6 WAR
• 7-time All-Star
• Over 200 Hits in 6 different seasons (2003-07 & 2011)

In a different era, an era before the mainstream acceptance of sabermetrics, Michael Young would have had a legitimate chance to make the Hall of Fame. Young, who spent 13 of his 14 MLB seasons with the Texas Rangers, did a lot of things that Hall of Fame voters like.

Besides collecting 200 hits 6 times and being a career .300 hitter at (mostly) middle infield positions, Young made seven All-Star squads and played a significant role in two A.L. All-Star wins.

In the 2006 All-Star Game, Young earned MVP honors. With the American League trailing 2-1 in the top of the 9th inning, Young hit a two-run triple to score the tying and go-ahead runs off future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman.

In 2008, Young hit a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 15th inning off the Phillies’ Brad Lidge to deliver a 4-3 win to the A.L.

In Young’s rookie year (2001), he was a second baseman. With Alex Rodriguez having been signed to play shortstop, Young was entrenched at the position. After the 2003 season, A-Rod was traded to the New York Yankees. In exchange the Rangers received second baseman Alfonso Soriano so Young was moved to shortstop. By the metrics, Young was a decent second sacker but a pretty awful shortstop. Defensively, he and Soriano did not make anybody forget Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker.

Anyway, Young spent 5 seasons as the Rangers’ shortstop and finished his career with more games played there than at any other position.

In 2009, in order to make room for Elvis Andrus, Young was moved to third base. He played full time at the hot corner until 2011, when the signing of Adrian Beltre turned him into a utility-man.

The point to the positional saga of Michael Young is that he can safely be classified as an infielder.

Fun Fact #1: there are 10 players in MLB history who played at least 40% of their games at either second base, third base, or shortstop who finished their careers with at least…

• .300 batting average
• 150 Home Runs
• 1,000 RBI
• 2,000 Hits

The 10 players? Rogers Hornsby, Charlie Gehringer, Derek Jeter, George Brett, Chipper Jones, Paul Molitor, Robinson Cano, Roberto Alomar, Joe Cronin and, drum roll please, Michael Brian Young. All of these players except for the not-yet-eligible Jeter and the still-active Cano are Hall of Famers.

Before we get hysterical about this and immediately confer a Cooperstown plaque to Young, please remember this is a “fun” fact and, unlike the one we saw with Tejada, it’s gerrymandered to Young’s benefit.

If you lower the standards to a .285 average, 125 HR, 900 RBI and 1,800 hits, you would add 17 more names to the list, including Julio Franco, Hanley Ramirez, Edgar Renteria, Vern Stephens, Pinky Higgins and, yes, Miguel Tejada.

Fun Fact #2: In six different seasons in his MLB career, Young collected 200 or more hits. There are only 10 players in baseball history who have more than Young’s six 200-hit seasons: Ichiro Suzuki, Pete Rose, Ty Cobb, Jeter, Paul Waner, Lou Gehrig, Willie Keeler, Wade Boggs, Gehringer and Hornsby. All of these except for Jeter, the gambling-tainted Rose and the just-retired Ichiro are in the Hall.

This fun fact is a little more mirthful but Steve Garvey (not in the Hall) also had six 200-hit seasons. Just behind, with 4 such campaigns, is Juan Pierre (see below) and many others.

With all the good news, is Young’s 24.2 WAR disqualifying?

In a word, yes, it’s disqualifying. It’s true that some really brutal defensive metrics are depressing Young’s WAR number and one should look at those with some suspicion, Young’s offensive profile is not Cooperstown-worthy. Young never walked more than 58 times in a season and struck out and struck out 90 or more times in 9 different seasons.

In the last 30 years, for infielders (not first basemen), Young’s offensive WAR is just 25th best, behind obvious non-Hall of Famers like Jose Reyes, Ray Durham, Chuck Knoblauch, Aramis Ramirez and others.

Michael Young was a very good player and a philanthropist, one of just four two-time winners of the Marvin Miller Man of the Year Award. But he’s not a Hall of Famer.

Placido Polanco: Second Baseman/Third Baseman

• Career: .297 BA, 104 HR, 723 RBI, 2,142 Hits
• Career: 95 OPS+, 41.5 WAR
• 2-time All-Star
• 3-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 2006 ALCS MVP with Detroit Tigers: .529 BA, 1.167 OPS

Admit it, if I told you that, between Placido Polanco and Michael Young, that one player had a 41.5 WAR while the other had a 24.6 WAR, you would have guessed that Young owned the 41.5. The difference between the two is entirely on the defensive side of the ball.

The component of “Runs Above or Below Average for Fielding” puts Polanco at +136 and Young a -152. That’s a massive difference and worth looking at skeptically.

Placido Polanco enjoyed a 16-year career, most of it as a starting player, because of two things: he was a good defensive player and a little bit overrated as a hitter due to his .300 career batting average (through his age 35 season).

Polanco, a native of the Dominican Republic, is the epitome of the cliche that you “don’t walk your way off the island.” Polando never walked more than 42 times in a season but also was good at putting the ball in play, never striking out more than 47 times either. In 11 different seasons, Polanco was in the top 10 in his league of most at bats per strikeout, highlighting his propensity for making contact.

It wasn’t until after his 31st birthday that Polanco started to get national recognition. In his second year with the Detroit Tigers (in 2006), Polanco hit .529 in the ALCS (against the Oakland A’s) and was named the MVP of the series.

The year after the pennant-winning season with Detroit, Polanco had the best season of his career. He hit .341 while logging 200 hits and scoring 105 runs. In addition, he became the first player in MLB history to play an entire season at second base without making an error! For this he made his first All-Star team, won his first of three Gold Gloves, and finished 17th in the MVP vote.

Placido Polanco is certainly not a Hall of Famer (and probably won’t get one vote) but he is, for sure, the “Hall of Much Better than you Thought he Was.”

Fun fact: from 2001-2008, thanks to superior defensive metrics, Polanco logged 5 different seasons with a WAR of 4.0 or more. Only 9 players managed more than 5 such seasons during these eight years (Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Ichiro Suzuki, Chipper Jones, Helton, Berkman and Tejada).

Fun fact #2: Polanco is the all-time leader in fielding percentage at both 2nd base and 3rd base (among qualified fielders with at least 500 games played at each position).

Derek Lowe: Starting & Relief Pitcher

• Career: 176-157 (.529 WL%), 4.03 ERA
• Career: 109 ERA+, 33.2 WAR
• 2-time All-Star
• 3rd in 2002 A.L. Cy Young Voting (21-8, 2.58 ERA, 7.2 WAR)
• Member of 2004 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox (3-0, 1.86 ERA, 19.1 IP)

Derek Lowe, drafted originally by the Seattle Mariners, was a part of one of the worst trades in the last 25 years. In July 1997, Lowe and catcher Jason Varitek were dealt to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for relief pitcher Heathcliff Slocumb.

Lowe spent 7 seasons as a reliever and starter for the BoSox while Varitek spent his entire 15-year MLB career in Beantown, becoming the heart and soul of two championship squads and the team captain. In the meantime, Slocumb went 2-9 with a 4.97 ERA in 84 games with the Mariners.

Lowe had two superb seasons in the bullpen (1999 and 2000), leading the A.L. with 42 saves in ’00 with a 199 ERA+. After a middling season in the ‘pen in 2001, Lowe was moved to the rotation. In 2002, his career-best season, Lowe went 21-8 with a 2.58 ERA (177 ERA+ and 7.2 WAR). For this, Lowe finished 3rd in the Cy Young vote behind Barry Zito and teammate Pedro Martinez. During that season, Lowe also tossed a no-hitter (on April 27th against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays).

In 2004, Lowe was an integral part of the historic “curse-breaking” Boston Red Sox. Lowe was the starting and winning pitcher in the clinchers for both the ALCS and the World Series.

In Game 7 of the history-making ALCS (in which the Sox came back from a 3-0 series deficit to the New York Yankees), Lowe gave up just one run in 6 innings while his teammates were mashing the ball, leading to a 10-3 win and a trip to the Fall Classic.

Fast forward to Game 4 of the World Series (the clincher in St. Louis): Lowe tossed 7 innings of 3-hit, shutout ball in the Red Sox victory.

Lowe left the Red Sox after the 2004 World Championship, signing a free agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the last 9 years of his career, pitching for the Dodgers, Braves and 3 other teams, Lowe was an average pitcher. He went 104-98 with a 4.13 ERA (100 ERA+).

Fun fact: from 2002-2011, Lowe’s 334 starts were the most in baseball. He never went on the disabled list.

Fun fact #2: in 2012, pitching for the Cleveland Indians, Lowe went 8-10 with a 5.52 ERA in 21 starts. The “fun” part of this fact is that he was replaced on the roster by a right-hander named Corey Kluber.

Freddy Garcia: Starting Pitcher

• Career: 156-108 (.591 WL%), 4.15 ERA
• Career: 107 ERA+, 34.6 WAR
• 2-time All-Star
• 3rd in 2001 A.L. Cy Young Voting (18-6, 3.05 ERA)
• Member of 2005 World Series Champion Chicago White Sox (3-0, 2.14 ERA in 3 starts)

From his rookie year in 1999 (at the age of 22) until June 2002, Freddy Garcia looked like a Hall of Famer in the making. As a rookie, he went 17-9 with a 4.07 ERA (a solid 122 ERA+, 22% above league average). His rookie year WAR was 5.4, 4th best in the A.L. He finished 9th in the Cy Young voting.

After logging just 20 starts in 2000, Garcia came back in 2001 to post a 18-6 record, while leading the A.L. with 238.2 innings pitched and a 3.05 ERA. For this Garcia made his first All-Star team and was 3rd in the Cy Young voting.

In his first 16 starts of 2002, the Venezuelan right-hander went 10-4 with a 3.02 ERA. For the rest of the season, the league figured out Garcia. He posted a 5.72 ERA in his final 18 starts.

Nicknamed The Chief, Garcia settled in for the final 11 years of his career as a serviceable 3rd or 4th starter. In 2005, pitching for the Chicago White Sox, Garcia went 14-8 with a 3.87 ERA, helping the Chisox win the A.L. Central.

In October 2005, Garcia won all 3 starts. He was particularly superb in the LCS and World Series. He pitched a complete game in Game 4 of the ALCS, a 8-2 win over the Boston Red Sox. In the World Series, Garcia was on the bump for the clinching Game 4 against the Houston Astros. He tossed 7 scoreless innings while giving up just 4 hits.

Overall, Garcia spent the last 10 years of his 15-year career pitching for 7 different teams.

Kevin Youkilis: Third Baseman/First Baseman

• Career: .281 BA, .382 OBP, .478 SLG, 150 HR, 618 RBI
• Career: 123 OPS+, 32.6 WAR
• 3-time All-Star
• 3rd in 2008 A.L. MVP Voting (.312 BA, 29 HR, 115 RBI)

If there was a Hall of Fame for grinding out at bats and driving up a pitcher’s pitch count, Kevin Youkilis would be in it. As a fan of the Boston Red Sox, I loved watching Youk foul off ball after ball after ball after ball…

Nicknamed the Greek God of Walks, Youkilis was a rookie in 2004, earning a World Series ring (despite only playing in one October contest) as Lowe’s teammate with the Red Sox. Blocked at first base by Kevin Millar and at third base by Bill Mueller, Youkilis didn’t get a chance to play full-time until 2006 (his age 27 season), when he became the team’s starting first baseman.

Youk won another World Series title with Boston in 2007. In the ’07 ALCS, Youk hit .500 with a 1.504 OPS, swatting 3 home runs while driving in 7.

From 2008-2010, Youkilis was a legitimate star: he hit .308 with a 148 OPS+ while averaging 6.1 WAR per season.

Youkilis was moved from first to third base before the 2011 season after the team acquired Adrian Gonzalez to play third. In the middle of 2012, while Youkilis was in a slump, he was traded to the White Sox. He spent his final MLB campaign (2013) with the New York Yankees before playing briefly in Japan in 2014.

Fun Fact: from 2008-2010, Youkilis’ 148 OPS+ was tied for 5th best among all hitters with at least 1,500 plate appearances. Youk was tied with Joe Mauer and behind only Albert Pujols, Gonzalez, Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera.

Jason Bay: Left Fielder

• Career: .266 BA, 222 HR, 754 RBI
• Career: 121 OPS+, 24.6 WAR
• 3-time All-Star
• 2004 N.L. Rookie of the Year: .282 BA, 26 HR, 82 RBI

Jason Bay is the lone Canadian-born player among the 2019 first time candidates for the Hall of Fame. Bay joins Larry Walker as the 2nd player on the ballot who was born in British Columbia. Bay was drafted (in 2000) by the Montreal Expos but was (traded) twice before making his MLB debut with the San Diego Padres in May 2003.

After just 3 games with the Padres, Bay was traded tor the third time, this time to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who sent him back to the minors for most of the season.

Officially, Bay was a 25-year old rookie in 2004 and he wound up becoming the Rookie of the Year. In 2005, Bay made the All-Star team for the first time and finished 12th in the MVP voting. It was the first of four seasons in which he posted 30 home runs, 100 RBI and 100 runs scored.

On July 31, 2008, Bay was a part of a three-team trade that sent Manny Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers; the 29-year old left fielder was shipped to Boston. Bay had one of his best seasons in 2009 (his lone full season in Boston), posting a 134 OPS+ and 5.2 WAR while finishing 7th in the MVP voting.

For that 2009 season, Bay was rewarded by another team (the New York Mets) with a four-year, $66 million contract.

The signing was terrible for the Mets. In four seasons (the last of which he spent in Seattle), Bay hit .229 with a OPS+ of 91. His combined WAR for all four seasons was a measly 2.1. Bay was released (by Seattle) about two months before his 35th birthday.

Fun fact: from 2005 to 2009, Bay was one of three players to log four different seasons with 30 HR, 100 RBI and 100 runs. The other two? Pujols and A-Rod.

Vernon Wells: Center Fielder

• Career: .270 BA, 270 HR, 958 RBI
• Career: 104 OPS+, 28.5 WAR
• 3-time All-Star
• 3-time Gold Glove Award Winner

Vernon Wells, the 5th overall pick (by the Toronto Blue Jays) in the 1997 June player draft, is best known for signing what was (for his team) one of the worst contracts in baseball history. In December 2006, 10 days after his 28th birthday, the Jays inked Wells to a seven-year, $126 million contract which, at the time, was the 6th biggest contract in MLB history.

It didn’t seem that dumb at the time. Wells was a three-time Gold Glove Award winner who had just posted a season with a .303 average, 32 home runs and 106 RBI. Using advanced metrics, 2006 was a 6.2 WAR season.

For the next seven years (2007-2013), Wells was worth a grand total of 8.0 WAR. In those seven campaigns (including two seasons with the L.A. Angels and one with the New York Yankees), Wells hit .253 with a below-average OPS+ of 96. That’s not exactly what his employers were looking for based on that contract.

On Bill James’ Similarity Scores, the #1 match for Wells is Baltimore Orioles outfielder Adam Jones who, at the age of 33, has time to remove himself from that designation.

Travis Hafner: Designated Hitter

• Career: .273 BA, 213 HR, 731 RBI
• Career: 134 OPS+, 24.8 WAR
• 2006: led all MLB with 181 OPS+ (1.097 OPS)

Travis Hafner, who spent most of his 12-year MLB career with the Cleveland Indians, was (sort of) a Jim Thome clone. Thome, the 6’4″, 250-pound pride of Peoria, Illinois, hit 334 home runs in 12 seasons with the Indians from 1991-2002.

Hafner, a left-handed hitting first baseman, was stuck in the minor leagues with the Texas Rangers with Rafael Palmeiro entrenched at first base. The Indians acquired the 6’3″, 240-pound Hafner in the off-season between 2002 and ’03.

Hafner, the pride of Jamestown, North Dakota, was used mostly as a designated hitter and, for four seasons (2004-2007), evoked memories of Thome, and with cool nicknames (“Donkey” and “Pronk”). From ’04-’07, Hafner hit .296 with an average of 32 home runs and 102 RBI while posting a Thome-esque 156 OPS+.

For those four seasons, Pronk’s 156 OPS+ was third best in all of MLB (minimum 2,000 PA), behind only future Hall of Famers Pujols and David Ortiz.

During the 2007 season, the Indians signed Donkey to a four-year, $57 million contract extension. Alas, the Tribe did not get their money’s worth. Due to multiple injuries, Hafner played in only 57 games in 2008 and never appeared in more than 118 contests for the rest of his career.

Fun Fact: in 2006, Hafner tied Don Mattingly’s record with 6 grand slams in a single season.

Ted Lilly: Starting Pitcher

• Career: 130-113 (.535 WL%), 4.14 ERA
• Career: 106 ERA+, 29.2 WAR
• 2-time All-Star

From the beginning of his career, Ted Lilly was what one would call a journeyman left-handed pitcher. Originally drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers, Lilly wouldn’t actually wear Dodger Blue until late in his career. He was traded to the Montreal Expos before he appeared in the major leagues and then traded three more times in his first several MLB seasons.

Signed as a free agent by the Chicago Cubs (his 5th team) after the 2006 season, Lilly went on a 4-year run where he was an effective 2nd or 3rd starter. From 2007-10, Lilly posted a 3.68 ERA (121 ERA+) while averaging a 4.2 WAR per campaign.

In July 2010, the Cubs traded Lilly to his original franchise (the Dodgers). Lilly spent his final three 1/2 years with Los Angeles.

Jon Garland: Starting Pitcher

• Career: 136-125 (WL%), 4.37 ERA
• Career: 103 ERA+, 22.5 WAR
• Member of 2005 World Series Champion Chicago White Sox (1-0, 2.25 ERA in 3 starts)

Regarding Jon Garland, you know the Hall of Fame is reaching for something positive to say about a candidate when the Hall’s official site touts, “reached the 10-win mark in nine seasons (2002-10).”

In fairness, the right-handed sinkerballer was a reliable and durable starting pitcher for those nine seasons, averaging 205 innings per season. In 2005, his lone All-Star campaign, Garland went 18-10 with a 3.50 ERA and finished 6th in the Cy Young voting.

As a part of the good-but-not-great quartet of starters (with Garcia, Mark Buehrle, and and Jose Contreras), Garland helped the White Sox to the World Series, tossing a complete game in Game 3 of the ALCS (against the L.A. Angels) and 7 innings of 2-run ball in Game 3 of the World Series against the Houston Astros, a game the White Sox eventually won in 14 innings.

Not so fun fact: Garland’s ERA was above 4.00 in 10 of his 13 MLB seasons.

Darren Oliver: Starting & Relief Pitcher

• Career: 118-98 (WL%), 4.51 ERA
• Career: 104 ERA+, 21.2 WAR

Darren Oliver is the son of Bob Oliver, a utility-man who played for 5 different teams in 8 seasons. Darren, like his father, was a journeyman of sorts, pitching for 9 different teams in 20 MLB campaigns. Like his father, Darren will not be getting inducted into the Hall of Fame.

It’s hard to remember it now but Oliver, a 6’3″, 250-pound left-handed pitcher, was a starting pitcher for most of the first half of his career. He was a relief pitcher as a rookie with the Texas Rangers in 1994 and a pretty good one, posting a 3.42 ERA (141 ERA+) in 50 innings.

After another season in the bullpen (which was not quite as good), Oliver embarked on a eight-year career as a mediocre starting pitcher, going 76-74 with a 5.13 ERA. After a terrible 2004 and a jobless ’05, Oliver returned to the majors at age 35 as a full-time reliever and was pretty good at it, posting a 2.95 ERA over eight seasons.

Fun fact: from 2008-2012 (his age 37 to 41 seasons), Oliver’s 8.8 WAR and 175 ERA+ were both 4th best in all of baseball. In WAR, he was behind only Rivera, Joakim Soria and Jim Johnson. In ERA+ (using a minimum standard of 200 IP), he was behind only Rivera, Mike Adams and Scott Downs.

Juan Pierre: Outfielder

• Career: .295 BA, 18 HR, 517 RBI, 2,217 Hits, 614 SB
• Career: 84 OPS+, 17.1 WAR
• Over 200 Hits 4 times
• Member of 2003 World Series Champion Florida Marlins (hit .307 with 12 runs scored)

Juan Pierre played for 6 different teams over 14 MLB seasons. Pierre, a contact hitter who rarely struck out, is best known for his speed, swiping 614 career bases and posting 9 seasons with 40 or more.

Pierre’s 614 SB are the most for any player in the 21st century; he’s 97 ahead of the man in 2nd place, Jose Reyes. Pierre is also the 21st century caught stealing champion, having been nabbed 203 times, 76 times more than runner-up Reyes.

Pierre was durable, missing only 10 games in 7 seasons between 2001-07, which included five consecutive 162-game campaigns (’03-’07).

On Bill James’ Similarity Scores, the known player whose career most resembles Pierre’s was Willie Wilson of the Kansas City Royals.

That’s not really fair to Wilson, though. Wilson was a world class defensive player early in his career and a better percentage base stealer, succeeding at a 83% clip compared to Pierre’s 75%. Wilson’s career WAR was 46.1 compared to Pierre’s 17.1

Fun fact: Pierre led his league in fewest at bats per strikeouts in 8 different seasons.

Rick Ankiel: Pitcher/Outfielder

• Career as pitcher: 13-10, 3.90 ERA, 119 ERA+, 3.6 WAR
• Career as hitter: .240 BA, 76 HR, 251 RBI, 92 OPS+, 5.3 WAR
• 2nd in 2000 N.L. Rookie of the Year voting: 11-7, 3.50 ERA

Rick Ankiel is the most unique among the first time candidates on the 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. His chief claim to fame is that he came to the majors as a pitcher and then, after bouts of wildness and Tommy John surgery, he returned as an outfielder, one who was good enough to hold down a starting job for awhile.

Ankiel was the runner up to Rafael Furcal as the 2000 N.L. Rookie of the Year. Besides posting a 134 ERA+ in 30 starts, Ankiel hit .250 with 2 HR and 9 RBI in 73 plate appearances. The combination of pitching and hitting gave the 21-year old a 4.1 WAR.

The future looked bright for Ankiel; he was a star in the making. In the postseason, though, Ankiel contracted a severe bout of wildness, walking 11 batters with 5 wild pitches in just 4 innings. He was never the same as a pitcher again.

In 2005, Ankiel gave up pitching and became a full-time outfielder. He spent a couple of seasons in the minors (and missed the 2006 season with a knee injury) but triumphantly returned to the majors in 2007 as a center fielder who could hit with power. His best season with the bat was in 2008, when he hit .264 with 25 HR, 71 RBI and a 120 OPS+.

After three seasons as a part-time player who hit .227 from 2011-2013, Ankiel retired in March 2014.

 

That’s it, a look at all 20 first time candidates on the 2019 BBWAA ballot for the Hall of Fame. If you read this all the way to the end, you deserve to be in the Hall of Fame of readers!

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