First-Time Candidates on the 2021 Hall of Fame Ballot: The Pitchers

On Monday, the names of the 25 Hall of Fame candidates on the 2021 Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) ballots were revealed. There are a total of 14 returning candidates along with 11 newcomers to the ballot. With just 25 listed candidates, this is the smallest BBWAA ballot since 2009, when Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice were elected to the Hall on a slate that had 23 names. Additionally, this 25-man ballot is tied with the 2008 ballot as the 2nd smallest in the history of the BBWAA voting.

Led by Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, and Barry Bonds, there are also 14 players who were on the 2020 ballot who will be back for another try at immortality in 2021. The approximately 400 voting members of the BBWAA have the option to vote for up to 10 players on their ballots. Any player whose name is checked by at least 75% of the voters will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this summer.

The first-timers on the ballot include five starting pitchers, one reliever, four outfielders, and one 3rd baseman:

• Mark Buehrle (SP)
• Tim Hudson (SP)
• Dan Haren (SP)
• Barry Zito (SP)
• A.J. Burnett (SP)
• LaTroy Hawkins (RP)
• Torii Hunter (OF)
• Nick Swisher (OF)
• Shane Victorino (OF)
• Michael Cuddyer (OF)
• Aramis Ramirez (3B)

(cover photo: Chicago Sun-Times, San Jose Mercury News)

As you peruse the names on this list, it’s an inescapable conclusion that 2021 will be the first year since 2013 in which no first-timers will be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, New York. It’s also very likely that none of these players will ever make it into the Hall. However, this is still the time to celebrate and acknowledge their excellent careers on the diamond.

With the preamble over, let’s take a brief look at the six first-time pitching candidates for Cooperstown (listed in order of the pitchers’ career WAR):

Cooperstown Cred: Mark Buehrle (SP)

• White Sox (2000-11), Marlins (2012), Blue Jays (2013-15)
• Career: 214-160 (.572 WL%), 3.81 ERA
• Career: 117 ERA+, 60.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 2-0, 1 Save, 3.47 ERA in 23.1 IP in 2005 postseason (White Sox won World Series)
• Pitched a no-hitter in 2007 and a perfect game in 2009

I’m not sure any of those of you reading ever thought about Mark Buehrle as a future Hall of Famer but the big left-hander had a really solid Major League Baseball career. His official rookie campaign was in 2000 when he pitched just 51.1 innings. In 2001, he emerged as a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter when he posted a 16-8 mark with a 3.29 ERA while leading the A.L. in WHIP (1.066).

Buehrle is best known for his no-hitter in 2007 and perfect game in 2009, which was made especially famous by the great catch in left-center field by Dewayne Wise which preserved not only Buehrle’s perfecto but his shutout since it robbed Tampa Bay’s Gabe Kapler of a home run. Wise’s catch was made with no outs in the 9th inning; two batters later, Buehrle induced a groundout by Jason Bartlett to become just the 16th pitcher in modern baseball to author a perfect game. He’s one of just 29 hurlers in MLB history to record two or more no-hitters.

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Buehrle is also well-known for his role in helping the Chicago White Sox to the World Series title in 2005. In that campaign, he went 16-8 with a 3.12 ERA, which was good enough for a 5th place finish in the Cy Young balloting. It was the only time he received even one vote for the Cy Young Award.

What most distinguished Mark Buehrle from his peers, however, was in the pace of his pitching. Buehrle was a throwback to a bygone era in which hurlers worked quickly. In a piece written late in his career (2014), Carl Bialik from FiveThirtyEight estimated that Buehrle had spared baseball fans nearly 63 hours of dead time over the course of his career. He was, simply, the quickest pitching gun on the diamond.

Does Buehrle deserve a spot in the Hall of Fame? I think not but he has a reasonable case. In the years that he pitched (2000-15), Buehrle’s 60.0 WAR is second only to the late Roy Halladay, a first-ballot Hall of Famer in 2019.

If you’re a fan of pitching wins, his 214 are the third most in the 21st century, behind only CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. In fairness, however, that’s a stat conveniently contrived by the fact the Buehrle’s career started in 2000. Among the first-time starters on the 2021 ballot, Buehrle’s record (214-160, 3.81 ERA) falls short when compared to Tim Hudson’s (222-133, 3.49 ERA).

If pitchers were judged for the Hall of Fame by the same standards as their counterparts from the first half of the 20th century, Buehrle’s numbers look pretty good. But that’s not the way it is today. He falls short and will likely receive less than 5% of the vote, knocking him off future ballots.

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Cooperstown Cred: Tim Hudson (SP)

• Athletics (1999-2004), Braves (2005-13), Giants (2014-15)
• Career: 222-133 (.625 WL%), 3.49 ERA
• Career: 120 ERA+, 56.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 4-time All-Star
• 4 times in the top 6 of Cy Young voting (runner-up in 2000)

In my humble opinion, of all of the first-time candidates, Tim Hudson has the best case for a plaque in Cooperstown although I feel that he falls a bit short.

Hudson was drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the June 1997 draft and was in the major leagues just two years later, in June 1999. Even though he pitched just 136.1 innings in ’99, his performance was good enough (11-2, 3.23 ERA) for him to finish 5th in the Rookie of the Year vote. Hudson followed up that superb rookie effort with a 20-win season in 2000 (20-6, 4.14 ERA), which gave him a 2nd place finish in the Cy Young balloting to future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez. Ironically, Hudson achieved that honor despite the unsightly ERA that wound up being the 3rd highest in his 17-year career.

Huddy’s 2001 campaign (18-9, 3.37 ERA) was actually better than his 2000 effort but he only finished 6th in the Cy Young vote. Hudson also announced himself as a star in the making to a national audience when he threw 8 scoreless innings against the New York Yankees in Game 2 of the American League Division Series, outdueling Andy Pettitte.

The right-handed ace got even better in 2002 and ’03, arguably the best two campaigns of his career in which he went a combined 31-16 with a 2.84 ERA. After the 2004 campaign (12-6, 3.53 ERA), with free agency looming after the next season, the A’s decided to trade their young ace to the Atlanta Braves for three players who never amounted to much of anything in Major League Baseball.

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Tim Hudson joined Bobby Cox’s Braves at the tail-end of the team’s 15-year run of dominance in the N.L. East. The team won the division title in 2005 (for the 14th straight time, excluding the inconclusive 1994 campaign) but was bounced in the first round of the NLDS by the Houston Astros, with Hudson posting a 5.27 ERA in 2 starts.

In 9 years with the Braves, Hudson pitched well but not with the top-of-the-rotation form that he showed with Oakland:

• 1999-2004 (with Oakland): 92-39 (.702), 3.30 ERA (136 ERA+, 31.0 WAR)
• 2005-2013 (with Atlanta): 113-72 (.611), 3.56 ERA (115 ERA+, 24.1 WAR)

His best season at Turner Field was in 2010 when he went 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA, which was good enough to land him his 4th and final All-Star berth and gave him a 4th place finish in the Cy Young vote.

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Hudson joined the San Francisco Giants as a free agent after the 2013 campaign, giving him the opportunity to pitch for a team that had won two of the four previous World Championships. Hudson settled in as Bruce Bochy’s #2 starter, behind Madison Bumgarner. On a team that won 88 games in ’14, Hudson pitched in tough luck, going just 9-13 despite a respectable 3.57 ERA. Thanks mostly to Mad-Bum’s heroics, the Giants went on to the Fall Classic in 7 games over the Kansas City Royals, giving Huddy his first and only ring.

In what would be his final campaign (in 2015), Hudson went 8-9 with a 4.44 ERA. Having turned 40 years of age in July, Hudson decided in September that 2015 would be his final MLB campaign. He retired after the season with 222 wins, a .625 winning percentage, 3.49 ERA, and robust 120 ERA+.

The question here is whether Hudson’s career was good enough to merit a plaque in the Hall of Fame. He looked like a possible Hall of Famer when he was with Oakland but, as we’ve seen, his career tailed off a bit in the years that followed. Still, he has a few key statistics to argue in favor of his case (referencing pitchers who debuted in 1946 or later).

• His career ERA+ of 120 is better than multiple Hall of Famers, including Bert Blyleven, Tom Glavine, Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins, Jim Bunning, Robin Roberts, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Jack Morris, and Catfish Hunter.
• His career WAR of 56.5 is better than the number posted by Whitey Ford, Sandy Koufax, Morris, and Hunter.
• He won 222 games, which is not a typical Hall of Fame benchmark but a higher total than the totals of Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Don Drysdale, Roy Halladay, and Koufax.

The problem with these numbers is that they’re all very good but not top-flight. If you look at the list of pitchers that have a lower ERA+, many of them won 300 games or finished with more than 250 (Bunning and Catfish being the exceptions). On the WAR list, Ford had a fantastic ERA+ of 133 (2.75 ERA in the old-school world). Koufax, of course, was a 3-time Cy Young winner and MVP.

Additionally, Hudson doesn’t get bonus points for being a dominant postseason ace (as Koufax, Hunter, and Morris do). He doesn’t get bonus points for winning Cy Young Awards (Koufax, Halladay, Hunter).

Hudson has very good career numbers but they’re all on the bottom-tier when you make a list of Hall of Famers. As it is with Buehrle, if Hudson were to be compared to pitchers from the first half of the 20th century, his case would be much stronger.

In my view, Hudson is the strongest Hall of Fame candidate among the first-timers on the BBWAA ballot. My hope is that he clears the 5% threshold to get a multi-year look. But he’s not a Hall of Famer for me.

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Cooperstown Cred: Barry Zito (SP)

• Athletics (2000-06, 2015), Giants (2007-13)
• Career: 165-143 (.536 WL%), 4.04 ERA
• Career: 105 ERA+, 33.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 3-time All-Star
• Won the 2002 Cy Young Award (23-5, 2.75 ERA, 182 SO)
• 2010 postseason: 2-0, 1.69 ERA in 16 IP for the World Champion San Francisco Giants

Born in Las Vegas, Barry Zito’s family moved to San Diego when he was young to further advance the youngster’s potential baseball career. In San Diego, the left-handed Barry, at the age of 12, was tutored by Randy Jones, who won the 1976 N.L. Cy Young Award with the Padres.

Zito pitched for three different colleges in three years (finishing at USC) and was drafted twice before winding up the property of the Oakland Athletics, who selected him with the 9th pick of the 1999 draft. After just 170 minor league innings, the 6’2″ lefty was with the big club by July 2000. He went 7-4 with a 2.72 ERA as a 22-year rookie with the ’00 A’s, forming a formidable one-two punch with Hudson to help the team to the A.L. West title and first postseason berth since 1992. The A’s fell in the ALDS to the New York Yankees in five games but the rookie acquitted himself nicely with a Game 4 win (1 ER in 5.2 IP).

In Zito’s sophomore campaign, he went 17-8 with a 3.49 ERA and followed that up with his Cy Young season (23-5, 2.75 ERA, 7.2 WAR). You could be excused if, after Zito’s first three MLB seasons, you felt you were looking at a future Hall of Famer. His next four campaigns, however, were solid but not spectacular. In those four seasons, he posted an ERA of 3.86. What distinguished Zito, however, was his durability. He averaged 35 starts and 223 innings for the six full campaigns after his rookie year.

Barry Zito hit free agency at the age of 28 with 102 wins, a 3.55 career ERA (125 ERA+) and a track record of never missing a start. He was rewarded with a seven-year, $126 million contract from the Athletics’ neighbors across the Bay, the San Francisco Giants. At the time, it made him the highest-paid pitcher in the history of baseball. Suffice it to say that the contract didn’t exactly work out as the Giants’ hoped, although the team would go to the greatest run of success in the franchise’s history.

In Zito’s first year with the Giants (2007), he went 11-13 with a career-worst 4.53 ERA. This was followed up by an even-worse campaign in which he went 10-17 with a 5.15 ERA. In the meantime, pitching for the league minimum, second-year phenom Tim Lincecum won the first of two consecutive Cy Young Awards. In 2010, Bruce Bochy’s Giants found themselves in the postseason and went on to win the World Series but Zito was left off the team’s playoff roster thanks to a 9-15 record and 4.15 ERA during the regular season.

After missing most of 2011 due to injury, Zito had somewhat of a last hurrah in 2012, winning 15 games against 8 losses (albeit with a 4.15 ERA). In the NLCS (against the St. Louis Cardinals), the Giants found themselves down 3 Games to 1. Despite so many years of struggles in the City by the Bay, Bochy gave Zito the Game 5 start, and the 34-year old delivered. After six miserable seasons, Zito finally had his big moment. He didn’t give up a single run in 7.2 innings of work, leading the Giants to a 5-0 victory.

His teammates have watched this man spend the past six seasons walking tall, speaking softly and maintaining never-ending professionalism while pretty much everyone around him was making up lists that attempted to demonstrate he was the most worthless $126 million athlete who ever lived.

So how perfect was it that one of the first men to visit the clubhouse after Zito’s finest moment as a Giant was the man who signed him to that contract — or at least signed off on it — former Giants managing general partner Peter Magowan.

Asked whether this was what he’d imagined when the Giants signed Zito to that stunning seven-year, $126 million megadeal back in December 2006, Magowan replied: “Exactly. This was what we were hoping we would get. This was the best game he’s ever pitched as a Giant.”

— Jayson Stark (espn.com, Oct. 19, 2012)

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The Giants went on to win the series in 7 Games and then swept the Detroit Tigers in the World Series, with Zito outpitching future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander in Game 1.

Barry Zito went 63-80 with a 4.62 ERA in 7 seasons with the Giants. He will not make the Hall of Fame. But he can enjoy his retirement knowing that he played a crucial role in securing for the Giants the second of their three World Series titles from 2010-14.

Cooperstown Cred: Dan Haren (SP)

• Cardinals (2003-04), Athletics (2005-07), Diamondbacks (2008-10), Angels (2011-12), Nationals (2013), Dodgers (2014), Marlins (2015), Cubs (2015)
• Career: 153-131 (.539 WL%), 3.75 ERA
• Career: 109 ERA+, 32.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 3-time All-Star

For a highly touted prospect, Dan Haren was traded a lot in his career. On five different occasions, another team traded for his services, dealing known names such as Mark Mulder, Carlos Gonzalez, Patrick Corbin, and Kike Hernandez in exchange for Haren’s services.

The first trade, from St. Louis to Oakland, made Haren a teammate of Barry Zito and Nick Swisher, who are both also first-timers on the 2021 Hall of Fame ballot. Haren pitched well for the Athletics, winning 43 games with a 3.64 ERA in three seasons. In December 2007, he was dealt to the Arizona Diamondbacks in an 8-player deal that sent Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Dana Eveland, and two others to Oakland.

Haren, an All-Star in Oakland in ’07, also earned nods to the Mid-Summer Classic roster in his two full seasons in the desert. In 2009, Haren went 14-10 with a 3.14 ERA and an MLB-best WHIP of 1.003. For this, he finished 5th in the N.L. Cy Young voting.

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After a slow start in 2010, Haren was traded again, this time to the Los Angeles Angels, in a deal that sent Corbin and Joe Saunders to Arizona. He went 5-4 with a 2.87 ERA in 14 starts down the stretch in Anaheim. Haren had another big year in 2011, going 16-10 with a 3.17. For the third time in his career, he led the league with his strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished 7th in the A.L. Cy Young balloting.

At the end of 2011 at the age of 31, Dan Haren had 107 career wins with a 3.59 ERA (119 ERA+) and a career WAR of 31.4. With that record, the 6’5″ right-hander was a potential future Hall of Fame inductee if he were to remain a top-flight starter in his 30’s. It was not to be. In his final four campaigns, pitching for five different teams, Haren posted a 4.14 ERA (ERA+ of 90) and just a 1.5 WAR.

Haren had a fine career but one that will fall far short of the Hall of Fame.

Cooperstown Cred: A.J. Burnett (SP)

• Marlins (1999-2005), Blue Jays (2006-08), Yankees (2009-11), Pirates (2012-15)
• Career: 164-157 (.511 WL%), 3.99 ERA
• Career: 104 ERA+, 29.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)

Obviously, A.J. Burnett is not remotely close to being a Hall of Famer. Generally, when looking for Cooperstown inductees, you look for black type on their Baseball-Reference page. Burnett’s most notable black type is in that he led his league in Wild Pitches three times.

Burnett was drafted in the 8th round by the New York Mets in 1995 and, notably, was a key player in the 1998 trade that sent Al Leiter to New York. Burnett showed signs that he had the ability to be a top-line starter in his fourth MLB season (2002 with the Marlins) in which he went 12-9 with a 3.30 ERA while leading the N.L. with 5 shutouts. In 2003, however, he underwent Tommy John surgery and rarely recaptured his 2002 form.

Still, in 2005 the 6’4″ right-hander was good enough (12-12, 3.44 ERA, 198 SO) to earn a 5-year, $55 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. The deal had an opt-out clause after three years and Burnett’s timing was excellent again: despite a 4.04 ERA, he went 18-10 in ’05 while leading the A.L. with 231 strikeouts. Burnett chose to test the free-agent market again and was rewarded with a 5-year, $82.5 million deal with the New York Yankees.

The 2009 Yankees were a super-team. They won 103 games and cruised to the World Series title, with Burnett the winner in Game 2 of the Fall Classic against the Philadelphia Phillies (7 IP, 1 ER, 9 SO). Burnett had two mediocre seasons in the Bronx before being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, where he spent the final four years of his career.

At the age of 38, Burnett went out in style in 2015. He went 9-7 with a 3.18 ERA and made his first and only All-Star squad.

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Cooperstown Cred: LaTroy Hawkins (RP)

• Twins (1995-2003), Cubs (2004-05), Giants (2005), Orioles (2006), Rockies (2007), Yankees (2008), Astros (2008-09), Brewers (2010-11), Angels (2012), Mets (2013), Rockies (2014-15), Blue Jays (2015)
• Career: 75-94 (.444 WL%), 4.31 ERA, 127 Saves
• Career: 106 ERA+, 18.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)

LaTroy Hawkins, obviously, will not be going into the Hall of Fame as a pitcher. But he still had a long and productive career. If you can last 21 seasons, mostly as a reliever and especially as a right-handed one, that’s darned impressive.

Hawkins finished his career with the 10th most games pitched in baseball history, behind Jesse Orosco, Mike Stanton, John Franco, Mariano Rivera, Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Dan Plesac, Mike Timlin, and Kent Tekulve. His 1,042 career games pitched are more than the totals by Hall of Famers Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Goose Gossage, and Rollie Fingers, and way more than Bruce Sutter‘s 661.

Hawkins was a starter in the first five years of his career, and not a very good one. He went 26-44 with a 6.16 ERA in 98 starts plus one relief appearance with the Minnesota Twins. In the 16 years since, spent exclusively in the bullpen, Hawkins saved 127 games and posted a 3.28 ERA (134 ERA+). From 2000-15, no relief pitcher appeared in more games or logged more innings than the 6’5″ right-hander. Hawkins pitched for 11 different teams in his final 13 campaigns. That’s not good enough for a plaque in the Hall of Fame but the pride of Gary, Indiana can be proud that so many teams found him somebody worth adding to their bullpen.

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