Longtime rivals and now fellow Fox Sports analysts Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz are the headline first-time candidates on the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) Hall of Fame ballot. While A-Rod and Big Papi join a ballot for the first time, some of the biggest stars in the game in the last 35 years (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, and Curt Schilling) are on the ballot for the 10th and final time. Overall, there are 13 new candidates on the ballot, with 17 holdovers from 2021.
Besides Rodriguez and Ortiz, the other first-time candidates include a quartet of first basemen (Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Justin Morneau), two stolen-base artists (Jimmy Rollins, Carl Crawford), one catcher (A.J. Pierzynski), two starting pitchers (Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy), and two closers (Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Nathan).
Because of the prevalence of Performing Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) in the 1990s and 2000s, this ballot is much more star-studded than it otherwise would be. If not for their documented or suspected PED ties, Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, Manny Ramirez, and (most likely) Gary Sheffield would have been inducted into the Hall of Fame years ago. Additionally, if it weren’t for his controversial Tweets and political views, Schilling would likely already have a plaque in Cooperstown.
Because of the PED linkage to so many of the candidates and the addition of Rodriguez and Ortiz to the 2022 BBWAA ballot, there are a couple of interesting facts regarding this power-heavy collection of players.
- 28 players in baseball history have hit at least 500 home runs. Six of them (Bonds, Rodriguez, Sosa, Ramirez, Ortiz, and Sheffield) are on this ballot. Never before in the history of the BBWAA balloting have there been six candidates from the 500 home run club.
- 14 players have hit 50 or more home runs in a single season since 2001. Half of them are on this ballot (Bonds, Sosa, A-Rod, Andruw Jones, Ortiz, Howard, and Fielder).
(cover photo: New York Post/Boston.com)
The 2021 Results
On the 2021 balloting, the results of which were announced in January, no player reached the required 75% to earn induction. The full results are listed below. All of these candidates are returning to the ballot for 2022.
| Returning Candidates | *YOB | 2021 Vote | 2020 Vote | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curt Schilling | 10th | 71.1% | 70.0% | +1.1 |
| Barry Bonds | 10th | 61.8% | 60.7% | +1.1 |
| Roger Clemens | 10th | 61.6% | 61.0% | +0.6 |
| Scott Rolen | 5th | 52.9% | 35.3% | +19.6 |
| Omar Vizquel | 5th | 49.1% | 52.6% | -3.5 |
| Billy Wagner | 7th | 46.4% | 31.7% | +14.7 |
| Todd Helton | 4th | 44.9% | 29.2% | +15.7 |
| Gary Sheffield | 8th | 40.6% | 30.5% | +10.1 |
| Andruw Jones | 5th | 33.9% | 19.4% | +14.5 |
| Jeff Kent | 9th | 32.4% | 27.5% | +4.9 |
| Manny Ramirez | 6th | 28.2% | 28.2% | 0 |
| Sammy Sosa | 10th | 17.0% | 13.9% | +3.1 |
| Andy Pettitte | 4th | 13.7% | 11.3% | +2.4 |
| Mark Buehrle | 2nd | 11.0% | NA | NA |
| Torii Hunter | 2nd | 9.5% | NA | NA |
| Bobby Abreu | 3rd | 8.7% | 5.5% | NA |
| Tim Hudson | 2nd | 5.2% | NA | NA |
| *YOB = year on ballot |
As you can see, 8-time Gold Glove-winning third baseman Scott Rolen made the biggest gains, jumping up to 52.9%. Historically speaking, when you eclipse 50%, that portends an eventual induction into the Hall, either via the BBWAA or a version of the Veterans Committee.
The other big gainers from 2020 to 2021 were Billy Wagner, Todd Helton, Jones, and Sheffield. Jeff Kent, who hit more home runs (377) than any other second baseman in the history of baseball, made gains of less than 5%. Given that he’s at 32.4% and only has two more years left on the ballot, Kent is not going to make it and will need to hope that the Eras Committee smiles more favorably on his candidacy.
Two years ago, it seemed as if 11-time Gold Glove-winning shortstop Omar Vizquel was making steady progress towards Cooperstown. However, allegations that surfaced about domestic violence and sexual harassment caused Vizquel to lose some voters while gaining hardly any new ones.
In this piece, I’ll offer a capsule look at the “Cooperstown Cred” of the 13 new candidates. At the end of the piece, I invite you to enjoy the links to the profiles already existing on this site for the 17 returnees.
2022 BBWAA Ballot: First-Time Candidates
Cooperstown Cred: Alex Rodriguez (SS/3B)
- Mariners (1994-2000), Rangers (2001-03), Yankees (2004-2016)
- Career: .295 BA, .696 HR, 2,086 RBI, 3,115 Hits
- Career: 140 OPS+, 117.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
- One of 3 players with 650 HR, 2000 RBI, and 3000 Hits (Aaron, Pujols)
- 4th on all-time lists for HR and RBI
- 3-time American League MVP (2003, ’05, ’07)
- 14-time All-Star
- 2-time Gold Glove Winner, 10-time Silver Slugger
- Member of 2009 World Series Champion Yankees
- 2009 Postseason: .365/.500/.808, 6 HR, 18 RBI
As it is with Bonds and Clemens, the tragedy of the multi-year usage of steroids by Alex Rodriguez is that he didn’t need them to be a superstar in the game of baseball. As the #1 overall pick by the Seattle Mariners in the 1993 draft, A-Rod was a star in the making from the moment he became a professional, much as it had been with his Seattle teammate Ken Griffey Jr., the first overall pick in 1987.
It is a big unknown how the writers will treat A-Rod as a Cooperstown candidate. Will they put him in the Bonds-Clemens bucket (around 60%) as an all-time great? Will more writers reject his candidacy because of the one-year suspension that he had to serve due to the biogenesis scandal? We’ll find out on January 25th when the results are announced.
Cooperstown Cred: David Ortiz (DH)
- Twins (1997-2002), Red Sox (2003-16)
- Career: .286 BA, .541 HR, 1,768 RBI, 2,472 Hits
- Career: 141 OPS+, 55.3 WAR
- 632 career doubles (12th most all-time)
- 1,192 career extra-base hits (8th most all-time, behind Aaron, Bonds, Musial, Ruth, Mays, Pujols, A. Rodriguez)
- Member of 2004, 2007 & 2013 World Champion Red Sox
- 10-time All-Star, 7-time Silver Slugger
- 2004 ALCS MVP: .387 BA, 1.199 OPS, 3 HR, 11 RBI
- 2013 World Series MVP: .688 BA, .760 OBP, 1,188 SLG, 2 HR, 6 RBI
David Ortiz, the beloved slugger for the Boston Red Sox, is arguably the most clutch postseason hitter in baseball history (as I document in this tribute to Big Papi’s greatest October moments).
Ortiz also has been linked to PEDs, thanks to a positive result in the “survey tests” of 2003 that were supposed to forever remain anonymous but were leaked to the New York Times. Commissioner Rob Manfred said, in Ortiz’s final season, that there were about a dozen false positives in that sample and that it should not be considered a disqualifying event when looking back on Big Papi’s career.
Given the pass that Manfred has given Ortiz and the fact that he passed every drug test ever administered in the final 13 years of his career, my guess is that the vast majority of the writers will smile upon his candidacy. I would expect that Ortiz will be elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot; he may be the only player elected by the BBWAA for the Class of 2022. It would not be shocking, however, if enough of the writers decided to invoke a “one-year suspicion penalty” to keep him under 75% on his first time on the ballot.
Cooperstown Cred: Mark Teixeira (1B)
- Rangers (2003-07), Braves (2007-08), Angels (2008), Yankees (2009-16)
- Career: .268 BA, 409 HR, 1,298 RBI, 1,862 Hits
- Career: 126 OPS+, 50.6 WAR
- 3-time All-Star
- 5-time Gold Glove Award Winner, 3-time Silver Slugger
- Member of 2009 World Series Champion Yankees
Mark Teixeira had an excellent career but not one that merits induction into the Hall of Fame.
There have been 64 first basemen to debut in the LCS era (1969 and beyond) who accumulated at least 5,000 plate appearances in their career:
- 12 of the 64 hit more than Tex’s 409 home runs (including Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, and Paul Konerko)
- 15 drove in more than the switch-hitting first sacker’s 1,298 runs (including Delgado, Giambi, Konerko, and Andres Galarraga)
- His 126 OPS+ is just the 27th best. He’s behind many non-Hall of Famers; the list of those who did better includes Kent Hrbek, Adrian Gonzalez, and Alvin Davis.
Teixeria’s career WAR (50.6) is strong but still just the 17th highest among these 64. He’s behind Keith Hernandez, John Olerud, Will Clark, Fred McGriff, and Lance Berkman, not to mention four active players (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, and Paul Goldschmidt).
Cooperstown Cred: Jimmy Rollins (SS)
- Phillies (2000-14), Dodgers (2015), White Sox (2016)
- Career: .264 BA, 231 HR, 936 RBI, 2,455 Hits
- Career: 470 SB, 105 CS (81.7%)
- Career: 95 OPS+, 47.6 WAR
- Led the N.L. in triples four times
- 2007 N.L. MVP (.296 BA, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 20 triples, 139 Runs, 41 SB)
- 3-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
- Member of 2008 World Series Champion Phillies
Fans and analysts who look at WAR first won’t be impressed with Rollins’ career mark of 47.6 but, otherwise, he has a very strong case, especially since he was a shortstop. The top four names on Rollins’ “similarity score” list include three Hall of Famers (Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell, and Roberto Alomar) and one who should be (Lou Whitaker). Because of his MVP and the black type on his Baseball-Reference page, Rollins scores 121 points on the Bill James “Hall of Fame Monitor” scale, a points system in which 100 means a “likely Hall of Famer.”
Rollins’ relatively low WAR is easily explained by his relatively weak-hitting record (95 OPS+), a result of his pedestrian slash line. Still, in many ways, Rollins is a superior candidate to Omar Vizquel, the other shortstop on this ballot, who got over 50% of the vote in 2020.
I doubt Rollins will make the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA but I would expect him to remain on the ballot for all ten years of eligibility (a player must get at least 5% to stay on future ballots) and it would not surprise me if he were a future selection by the Eras Committee.
Cooperstown Cred: Carl Crawford (LF)
- Rays (2002-10), Red Sox (2011-12), Dodgers (2013-16)
- Career: .290 BA, 136 HR, 766 RBI, 1,931 Hits
- Career: 480 SB, 109 CS (81.5%)
- Career: 105 OPS+, 39.1 WAR
- Led the A.L. in SB and Triples four times each
- 4-time All-Star
- 2010 Gold Glove & Silver Slugger Winner
We now arrive at several likely “one-and-dones,” players who will almost certainly get less than 5% of the vote on their first turn on the ballot.
Carl Crawford looked like a possible Hall of Famer in the making with the Tampa Bay Rays. He had a 35.6 WAR at the end of his age 28 season, his final campaign with the Rays. The Boston Red Sox certainly thought they had a star player when they signed Crawford to a 7-year, $142 million free-agent contract. Crawford, of course, was a bust in Beantown and spent his final four years as a role player with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Cooperstown Cred: Jake Peavy (SP)
- Padres (2002-09), White Sox (2009-13), Red Sox (2013-14), Giants (2014-16)
- Career: 152-126 (.547), 3.63 ERA, 2,207 SO
- Career: 110 ERA+, 37.2 WAR
- 2007 N.L. Cy Young Award Winner (19-6, 2.54 ERA, 240 SO)
- Won the 2007 N.L. “Triple Crown” (led in wins, ERA, strikeouts)
- 3-time All-Star, 2012 Gold Glove Award Winner
- 2 World Series Championships (2013 Red Sox, 2014 Giants)
From 2004-07, Jake Peavy pitched like a future Hall of Famer. He led all of Major League Baseball in ERA in both ’04 and ’07 while leading all of baseball in ERA, WHIP, FIP, and strikeouts during his Cy Young Award-winning campaign. Only Roger Clemens and Johan Santana had a lower ERA from 2004-08.
Peavy did benefit from pitching in San Diego’s Petco Park (his overall ERA with the Pads was 3.29). In the final seven seasons of his career, however, he was just average, posting a 4.13 ERA (99 ERA+).
In back-to-back years, contending teams (the Red Sox and Giants) traded for Peavy to bolster their rotations but his October record was exceedingly weak (1-5, 7.98 ERA in 9 postseason starts).
Cooperstown Cred: Justin Morneau (1B)
- Twins (2003-13), Pirates (2013), Rockies (2014-15), White Sox (2015)
- Career: .281 BA, 247 HR, 985 RBI, 1,603 Hits
- Career: 120 OPS+, 27.0 WAR
- 2006 A.L. MVP (.321 BA, 34 HR, 130 RBI, .559 SLG, 140 OPS+, 4.3 WAR)
- 4-time All-Star, 2-time Silver Slugger
In retrospect, Justin Morneau’s 2006 A.L. MVP Award looks like a poor choice by the writers. By WAR, 18 other players in the A.L. had better seasons. In 2006, writers put much more stock in batting average and RBI than they do today: Morneau was near the top of the league in both, but not at the top. The only statistical categories in which Morneau led the A.L. were in sacrifice flies and first baseman assists. Meanwhile, Ortiz led the league in HR (54) and RBI (137), Morneau’s teammate Joe Mauer was the batting champion (.347), and Derek Jeter hit .343 with 97 RBI.
In the actual vote, Jeter finished a close 2nd to Morneau, while Big Papi was 3rd.
Morneau had a nice career but he won’t get anywhere close to 5% of the vote.
Cooperstown Cred: Prince Fielder (1B)
- Brewers (2005-11), Tigers (2012-13), Rangers (2014-16)
- Career: .283 BA, 319 HR, 1,028 RBI, 1,645 Hits
- Career: 134 OPS+, 23.8 WAR
- 6-time All-Star, 3-time Silver Slugger
- 2-time Home Run Derby Champion
When Prince Fielder’s father (Cecil Fielder) hit 51 home runs with the 1990 Detroit Tigers, it was a major event in Major League Baseball. Nobody had hit as many as 50 home runs in a season since George Foster in 1977. 17 years later, when Prince hit 50 homers in 2007, it wasn’t much of a big deal at all. Still, Cecil and Prince are the only father-son duo to swat as many as 50 taters in a single campaign.
Early in his career, the big-bodied Prince Fielder (his Baseball-Reference page lists him at 275 pounds) was extraordinarily durable. From 2006-13, Fielder played in at least 157 games per season, including four campaigns in which he played in all 162 games for his team.
A pair of neck surgeries ended Fielder’s career at the age of 32, curtailing his statistical resume many years before he might have started to look like a potential Hall of Famer.
Cooperstown Cred: Joe Nathan (RP)
- Giants (1999-03), Twins (2004-11), Rangers (2012-13), Tigers (2014-15), Cubs (2016), Giants (2016)
- Career: 64-34 (.653), 2.87 ERA
- Career: 377 Saves, 46 Blown Saves (89.1%)
- Career: 151 ERA+, 26.4 WAR
- 6-time All-Star
- Finished in the top 5 of the A.L. Cy Young voting twice
A failed starting pitcher with the San Francisco Giants in 1999-2000, Joe Nathan became a premier set-up man in 2003, winning 12 games out of the bullpen with a 2.96 ERA. Nathan was traded (with Nelson Liriano) for fellow 2022 ballot member A.J. Pierzynski after the 2003 campaign and instantly became one of the premier closers in the league.
For ten years (from 2004-13), Nathan was the second-best relief pitcher in Major League Baseball, behind only the great Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera. For relievers with at least 500 IP, Nathan was second (to Rivera) in Saves, ERA, WHIP, and WAR.
As a Cooperstown candidate, Nathan is a few pegs below Billy Wagner as a one-inning closer, but not too many pegs. Given that Wagner got 46.4% of the vote in 2021, it wouldn’t be shocking if Nathan got enough support to clear the 5% bar and appear on future ballots.
Cooperstown Cred: Tim Lincecum (SP)
- Giants (2007-15), Angels (2016)
- Career: 110-89 (.553), 3.74 ERA
- Career: 104 ERA+, 19.9 WAR
- Two-time Cy Young Award Winner (2008 & ’09)
- Led the N.L. in strikeouts for three straight seasons (2008-10)
- 4-time All-Star
- Won 3 World Series titles with the Giants (2010, ’12, ’14)
- 5-2, 2.40 ERA in 13 career postseason appearances
When you win the Cy Young Award twice in your first three seasons in Major League Baseball, people usually start dreaming about a plaque in Cooperstown. The 5’11”, 170-pound Tim Lincecum, had a contorted delivery, one designed for maximum efficiency. Given that he always looked like an injury waiting to happen, I’m sure I wasn’t alone in having felt at the time that his success was too good to last.
Lincecum remained effective in the first two years after his two Cy Youngs (finishing 10th and 6th in the 2010 and 2011 voting) but he regressed significantly in 2012, going 10-15 with a 5.18 ERA. It didn’t get much better in the years that followed. The Freak posted a 4.85 ERA from 2013-16.
Lincecum would not have even qualified for the BBWAA ballot if not for the 38.1 innings he tossed for the Angels in 2016 (2-6, 9.16 ERA). It was his 10th MLB campaign, the minimum amount needed to qualify for the ballot.
Cooperstown Cred: Jonathan Papelbon (RP)
- Red Sox (2005-11), Phillies (2012-15), Nationals (2015-16)
- Career: 41-36 (.532), 2.44 ERA
- Career: 368 Saves, 49 Blown Saves (88.2%)
- Career: 177 ERA+, 23.3 WAR
- 5-time All-Star
- Member of 2007 World Series Champion Red Sox
- Career postseason: 2-1, 1.00 ERA, 7 Saves
To the casual fan, Jonathan Papelbon might be not much more than a punch-line from the end of Bryce Harper‘s 2015 MVP campaign when the two players had an altercation in the Washington Nationals’ dugout. Papelbon grabbed Harper by the throat and drove him into the dugout wall, apparently because he thought Harper hadn’t hustled to first base after flying out to left field. (For whatever it’s worth, the Nats had already been eliminated from playoff contention). Anyway, the incident boiled over and both players said the incident was overblown, that it was simply “family members losing their cool.”
Papelbon returned to the Nationals in 2016 but, in the midst of a mediocre campaign (4.37 ERA in 35 innings), he was released in mid-August and never appeared in Major League Baseball again.
The Harper incident obscured the fact that Papelbon was a top-flight MLB closer for virtually his entire career. Until the start of the 2016 season, he had a career ERA of 2.35, with only one season in which he posted an ERA under 3.00. With the exception of Rivera, every closer in the Hall of Fame has at least one subpar campaign or two during their journey to Cooperstown.
Papelbon was born to a be a closer in the era of high-definition television. He had the intimidating stare from the mound that TV directors love.
He was only 35 years old when his career ended with 368 saves. That’s more saves (at the end of his age-35 season) than Trevor Hoffman had at a similar time in his career (Hoffman had 352 through his age-35 campaign). If Papelbon had continued his career, he might have become a strong candidate for Cooperstown. As it is, however, he’ll get much less than 5% and be off the 2023 ballot.
Cooperstown Cred: A.J. Pierzynski (C)
- Twins (1998-03), Giants (2004), White Sox (2005-12), Rangers (2013), Red Sox (2014), Cardinals (2014), Braves (2015-16)
- Career: .280 BA, 188 HR, 909 RBI, 2,043 Hits
- Career: 94 OPS+, 23.8 WAR
- 2-time All-Star, 2012 A.L. Silver Slugger
- Member of 2015 World Series Champion White Sox
Pierzynski was a journeyman, playing for seven different teams in his 19-year career. At 6’3″, 250 pounds, Pierzynski was big and tall for a catcher but only hit more than 20 home runs once in his career despite his size. He’s most notable for his durability, playing in at least 125 games for 12 years in a row.
Pierzynski caught the 9th most games in the history of baseball. That won’t be enough for more than one or two nibbles on the 2022 BBWAA ballot.
Cooperstown Cred: Ryan Howard (1B)
- Phillies (2004-16)
- Career: .258 BA, 382 HR, 1,194 RBI, 1,475 Hits
- Career: 125 OPS+, 14.7 WAR
- 2005 N.L. Rookie of the Year (.288 BA, 22 HR, 63 RBI)
- 2006 N.L. MVP (.313/.425/.659, 58 HR, 149 RBI, 167 OPS+, 5.2 WAR)
- Four straight seasons with at least 45 HR and 135 RBI (2006-09)
- 3-time All-Star, 2006 Silver Slugger
- Member of 2008 World Series Champion Phillies
Ryan Howard’s career started late (at age 24) and ended early (age 36), resulting in career numbers far short of the standards one expects from a defensively challenged first baseman. His career, in fact, is remarkably similar in toto to Prince Fielder’s (Fielder is #2 on Howard’s “similarity score” list).
From 2006-09, Howard averaged 50 HR with 143 RBI. His 198 homers during those years were far above the player with the second most (Albert Pujols with 165). Similarly, his 572 RBI was vastly more than Pujols’ 491. There are only three players (including Howard) in the history of baseball to hit over 45 home runs and drive in 135 runs for four consecutive seasons. The others are Babe Ruth and Sammy Sosa.
On the negative side, Howard also averaged 191 strikeouts per season during those four campaigns. At a time where offense reigned supreme in the game, his 145 OPS+ from 2006-09 was just the 7th best in the majors.
Those four seasons were fantastic for Howard but his overall record is severely lacking as a Hall of Fame candidate.
2022 BBWAA Ballot: Returning Candidates
Finally, here are links to existing articles, posted in the last 12 months, for the 17 returning candidates to the 2022 Hall of Fame ballot, in alphabetical order.
- Abreu, Bobby (3rd year on ballot)
- Bonds, Barry (10th year on ballot)
- Buehrle, Mark (2nd year on ball0t)
- Clemens, Roger (10th year on ballot)
- Helton, Todd (4th year on ballot)
- Hudson, Tim (2nd year on ballot)
- Hunter, Torii (2nd year on ballot)
- Jones, Andruw (5th year on ballot)
- Kent, Jeff (9th year on ballot)
- Pettitte, Andy (4th year on ballot)
- Schilling, Curt (10th year on ballot)
- Sheffield, Gary (8th year on ballot)
- Ramirez, Manny (6th year on ballot)
- Rolen, Scott (5th year on ballot)
- Sosa, Sammy (10th year on ballot)
- Vizquel, Omar (5th year on ballot)
- Wagner, Billy (7th year on ballot)
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