First-Time Candidates on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot

Two former members of the New York Mets, Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez, are the two most prominent first-time candidates on the 2023 Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) Hall of Fame ballot. In what’s an unusually weak overall group of new candidates, nobody is likely to be a first-ballot inductee on an overall ballot that is less packed with talent than any since 2012, the year before Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens began their ten years of eligibility.

There are 14 new candidates overall on the 2023 ballot, joining 14 others who are holdovers from the 2022 ballot. The other first-time candidates include six other pitchers: John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, Bronson Arroyo, R.A. Dickey, and Huston Street. Also on the ballot are three other outfielders (Jacoby Ellsbury, Jayson Werth, and Andre Ethier), a pair of shortstops (Jhonny Peralta and J.J. Hardy), and first baseman Mike Napoli.

Besides Bonds and Clemens, three other players from the 2022 ballot are not on the 2023 edition: David Ortiz, Sammy Sosa, and Curt Schilling. Ortiz was a first-ballot inductee to the Hall’s Class of 2022 while Sosa and Schilling also exhausted their ten years of eligibility for enshrinement via the BBWAA.

5 out of the 14 newcomers to the BBWAA ballot are former members of the Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels: Rodriguez, Lackey, Weaver, Street, and Napoli. The ballot also contains four new names of players who won a World Series title with the Boston Red Sox: Lackey, Arroyo, Napoli, and Ellsbury.

The Weakest BBWAA Ballot Since 2012

The 2013 ballot, notable in both the depth of overall talent and in the fact that not a single player crossed the 75% threshold to be elected to receive a plaque in Cooperstown, featured arguably the greatest collection of first-time candidates since the first-ever ballot in 1936, the year that Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson, and Christy Mathewson comprised the inaugural Hall of Fame class.

Besides Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, and Schilling, Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio also debuted on the 2013 ballot, with both players making it into the Hall in the years that followed. Besides Piazza and Biggio, there were eight other players on the 2013 ballot who eventually made it to the Hall, either via the BBWAA or the Eras Committee: Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Tim Raines, Larry Walker, Jack Morris, Alan Trammell, Lee Smith, and Fred McGriff.

The 2013 ballot also featured two other sluggers tainted by Performance Enhancing Drugs (Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro), along with Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly. The ballot was so packed that a strong first-time candidate (Kenny Lofton) didn’t even get the required 5% minimum to get onto future ballots.

Compare the 2013 ballot to its predecessor in 2012. Using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as a measuring stick, the 2012 ballot had nine players with a career WAR of 50 or better, compared to the 16 players with a 50+ WAR on the 2013 ballot.

One player was elected to the Hall in 2012 (Barry Larkin) on a ballot that had a first-year class of candidates even weaker than the 2023 slate. Using WAR again, there were no first-time candidates with a career WAR above 50. The best first-time candidate on the ballot was Bernie Williams, who got just 9.6% of the vote; he was bounced off of future ballots in 2013 when he got just 3.3%.

Additionally, this is the first ballot since 1986 in which there is only one first-time candidate with a WAR of 40 or better. On that ballot, Willie McCovey (64.5) was the only player with a WAR above 40; the second-best candidate (by WAR) was Paul Blair (37.8).

If you simply take an average of the 7 best first-time candidates (by WAR) on the ballot, this is the 6th weakest crop of first-timers since 1978.

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In case you’re wondering why I cut this off at 1978, it’s because there were several classes in the 1970s in which there were only five or fewer first-time candidates. The weakest of those classes was in 1976, when there were only two first-time candidates (pitcher Roy Face and catcher Del Crandall).

In this piece, I’ll offer a capsule look at the “Cooperstown Cred” of the 14 new candidates. At the end of the piece, I will invite you to enjoy the links to the profiles already existing on this site for the 14 returnees.

2023 BBWAA Ballot: First-Time Candidates

Cooperstown Cred: Carlos Beltran (CF)

• Royals (1998-2004), Astros (2004), Mets (2005-11), Giants (2011), Cardinals (2012-13), Yankees (2014-16), Rangers (2016), Astros (2017)
• Career: .279 BA, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 runs, 2,725 hits, 312 SB
• Career: 119  OPS+, 70.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 4th most HR all-time for center fielders (behind Mays, Griffey, Mantle) (minimum 50% games played in CF)
• 4th most RBI all-time for center fielders (behind Cobb, Mays, Griffey)
• 4th most HR all-time for switch-hitters (behind Mantle, Murray, and Chipper Jones)
• 3rd most RBI all-time for switch-hitters (behind Murray, and Jones)
• Career SB success rate (86.4%) is the best in MLB history (minimum 200 SB)
• 9-time All-Star
• 3-time Gold Glove winner
• 4th in 2006 NL MVP vote (41 HR, 116 RBI, 127 Runs, 150 OPS+)
• Career post-season: .307 BA, .412 OBP, .609 SLG, 16 HR, 42 RBI in 256 PA
• 5th highest post-season OPS (1.021) in baseball history (min. 150 PA) (Ruth, Gehrig, Pujols, Brett)

If you just look at the long list of accomplishments outlined above, it’s pretty clear that Carlos Beltran has a resume that is worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown. When it comes to the big power statistics (HR and RBI), he’s in some very impressive company as one of the best center fielders and switch-hitters of all time.

Beltran ranks as the 9th best center fielder in the history of the game according to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, behind Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout, Ken Griffey Jr., Joe DiMaggio, and Duke Snider). With the exception of the still-active Trout, all of the names ahead of Beltran on this list are in the Hall of Fame.

Despite this, there’s no way that Beltran will make it into the Hall on his first time on the ballot. He’s going to pay a significant penalty with the writers for his role in the Astros sign-stealing scandal in 2017. That is the season in which Beltran finally won a World Series championship. Sadly, that title will be forever tainted by the scandal.

The unknown question is whether the writers collectively decide that Beltran’s role in that scandal deserves a “first-ballot penalty” or if it’s disqualifying forever. We’ve seen recently that a large chunk of the BBWAA members do not tolerate “cheating” when it comes to PEDs. Two of the greatest players in baseball history (Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens) are still not in the Hall of Fame. My guess is that, eventually, 75% of the writers will conclude that Beltran should not be permanently disqualified from the Hall because of this.

“Sign stealing has been part of baseball for generations — even The Shot Heard ‘Round The World, arguably baseball’s most famous home run, has been tainted by it. This is not to excuse what Beltran did, and the level of sophistication of what he and the Astros did won’t soon be forgotten. I’m sure my inbox is already exploding from the Yankees fans who believe his role as the supposed ring leader for the Astros cost their team a championship. Did that scheme significantly help his career, though? In a way that diminishes everything else he accomplished in nearly two decades in baseball? Not for me.”

— Steve Politi (NJ.com, December 9, 2022)

Politi’s view is not universal, of course. As an example, Joe Cowley from the Chicago Sun-Times selected 10 players on his ballot (the maximum allowed). He voted for three players linked to PEDs (Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and Gary Sheffield) but not Beltran.

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At the end of each of the short bio about the first-time candidates for the Hall of Fame on the BBWAA ballot, I will share the top five names on the similarity scores list at the bottom of each player’s Baseball-Reference page. In the case of Beltran, these names will highlight why he’s a strong candidate for the Hall of Fame. In the case of most of the other players, it will highlight why they’re not.

Carlos Beltran’s “most similar” players: Andre Dawson, Billy Williams, Al Kaline, Luis Gonzalez, Tony Perez

For a full profile of Carlos Beltran’s Hall of Fame candidacy, please click here.

Cooperstown Cred: John Lackey (SP)

• Angels (2002-09), Red Sox (2010-14), Cardinals (2014-15), Cubs (2016-17)
• Career: 188-147 (.561 WL%), 3.92 ERA
• Career: 110 ERA+, 38.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Finished 3rd in 2007 A.L. Cy Young vote: 19-9, 3.01 ERA
• 2007 A.L. All-Star
• Won three World Series Championships (2002 with Angels, 2013 with Red Sox, 2016 with Cubs)
• Career postseason: 8-6, 3.44 ERA

Going by WAR, John Lackey is the second-best first-time candidate on the 2023 BBWAA ballot. That fact only highlights the overall weakness of the first-year class of candidates. Still, Lackey did have a very good career. Given the way that pitchers are used these days, we’ll probably see future starting pitchers get inducted into Cooperstown with less than Lackey’s 188 career wins.

Lackey became a household name (at least among baseball fans) as a rookie in 2002, thanks to the prominent role that he played in the Anaheim Angels championship squad. He pitched seven scoreless innings against the Minnesota Twins in Game 4 of the ALCS and was the Game 7 starter (and winner) in the World Series against the San Francisco Giants.

After that high-profile debut, Lackey struggled in his first two full MLB seasons, going 24-29 with a 4.65 ERA. He rebounded in 2005-06, going 27-16 with a solid 3.50 ERA.

Lackey’s best season came in 2007. The 28-year-old righthander went 19-9 while leading the American League with a 3.01 ERA. He was an All-Star for the first and only time in ’07 and also finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting, behind CC Sabathia and Josh Beckett.

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In 2008-09, Lackey remained solid but not spectacular. He went 23-13 with a 3.79 ERA in what would be his final two campaigns with the Angels.

After the 2009 season, Lackey signed a five-year, $82.5 million contract with the Boston Red Sox. The deal was initially an awful one for the Red Sox. After going 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA in 2010, the 6’6″ right-hander had a brutal campaign in 2011, going 12-12 with a 6.41 ERA. After the season, Lackey had Tommy John surgery, forcing him to miss the entire 2012 campaign.

The Red Sox finally get some decent value out of Lackey in 2013 (10-13, 3.52 ERA). Most importantly, he had a strong postseason (3-1, 2.77 ERA), helping the BoSox to the World Series title. With Boston out of contention in 2014, Lackey was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals at the trading deadline for first baseman Allen Craig and reliever Joe Kelly.

After an excellent 2015 campaign with the Redbirds (13-10, 2.77 ERA), Lackey spent the final two seasons of his career with the Chicago Cubs, winning his third World Series title with the team in 2016. He last pitched in 2017, twelve wins shy of 200 for his career.

This will be Lackey’s only time on the BBWAA ballot. It’s unthinkable that he’ll get the required 5% of the vote needed to appear on future ballots. There might be a writer or two, however, that checks his name based on his postseason resume and 188 wins.

John Lackey’s “most similar” players: Kevin Millwood, Frank Viola, Felix Hernandez, Kevin Appier, Javier Vazquez

Cooperstown Cred: Jered Weaver (SP)

• Angels (2006-16), Padres (2017)
• Career: 150-98 (.605 WL%), 3.63 ERA
• Career: 111 ERA+, 34.9 WAR
• Finished in the Top 5 of the A.L. Cy Young voting three years in a row (2010-12)
• Led the A.L. in wins twice (20 wins in 2014, 18 in 2016)
• Career postseason: 2-1, 2.60 ERA

When 23-year-old Jeff Weaver made his Major League Baseball debut for the Anaheim Angels in May 2006, he joined a rotation that included his older brother Jeff. The older Weaver (age 29) was already an eight-year MLB veteran, having pitched for the Tigers, Yankees, and Dodgers before joining the Angels as a free agent in February.

The elder Weaver had been a significant disappointment for the Angels, having gone 2-7 in his first 10 starts, with a 6.99 ERA. Jered, on the other hand, started his career in style, tossing seven innings of scoreless ball in his opening effort. Overall, Jered won his first seven starts for the Halos (with a 1.51 ERA); his older brother was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals on July 5th after posting an ugly 3-10 record with a 6.29 ERA in 16 starts.

The 6’7″ Jered tailed off a little bit after the trade of his brother but still finished his rookie campaign with an 11-2 record and 2.56 ERA (translating to a robust 177 ERA+). Weaver regressed a bit in the next three seasons (averaging 13 wins and a 3.99 ERA) before a three-year stretch (from 2010-12) in which he was one of the top pitchers in the American League.

• 2010: 13-12, 3.01 ERA, 233 strikeouts (most in the AL)
• 2011: 18-8, 2.41 ERA, 198 strikeouts
• 2012: 20-8, 2,81 ERA, 1,018 WHIP (best in the AL)

Weaver finished 5th in the Cy Young voting in 2010, 2nd in 2011 (behind Justin Verlander), and 3rd in 2012 (behind David Price and Verlander). By WAR, Weaver was the 2nd best pitcher in the league for those three years; he had the lowest ERA (2.73) and WHIP (1.034) in the league for those three seasons (among pitchers with at least 400 innings pitched).

In early May 2011, Weaver tossed a no-hitter against the Minnesota Twins.

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Weaver, who turned 30 at the end of the 2012 campaign, could have been a free agent after that season but, instead, he signed a team-friendly five-year, $85 million in August 2011. How much money did the Southern California native leave on the table by giving the Angels a “hometown discount”? Well, Weaver’s 2014 teammate Zack Greinke (who had a 3.83 ERA from 2012-14) got six years and $147 from the neighboring Los Angeles Dodgers.

Anyway, at the end of the 2012 campaign, the 31-year-old Weaver had 102 career wins with a 3.24 ERA (129 ERA+, 29.7 WAR). A future plaque in Cooperstown seemed like a possibility. However, as it turned out, the Dodgers got what they paid for with Greinke while the Angels did not with Weaver. After two respectable campaigns in 2013-14 (29 wins, 3.45 ERA), Weaver tailed off in 2015-16, going 19-24 with a 4.86 ERA.

Weaver’s contract expired at the end of the 2016 campaign and, given his 5.06 ERA that season, there wasn’t another $85 million offer coming. He signed a one-year deal with the San Diego Padres (for $3 million). In nine starts for the Friars, Weaver was positively awful, going 0-5 with a 7.44 ERA before going on the disabled list at the end of May with a hip injury. He never pitched again, retiring in August at the age of 34.

Despite his size, Weaver was never the type of pitcher to blow hitters away with high heat. Even at his best, his average fastball velocity was in the high 80s to low 90s. Weaver also threw sinkers, sliders, curveballs, and changeups. In his last three seasons, however, he only managed an average fastball velocity of about 84 MPH, which wasn’t good enough to keep him in the game.

For nine years, Jered Weaver was an elite pitcher in Major League Baseball. But his dominance wasn’t good enough to merit a peak case for the Hall of Fame. He’ll fall way short of the 5% needed to appear on future ballots.

Jeff Weaver’s “most similar” players: Chris Carpenter, Cliff Lee, Don Newcombe, Johnny Cueto, Roy Oswalt

Cooperstown Cred: Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)

• Red Sox (2007-13), Yankees (2014-17)
• Career: .284 BA, 104 HR, 512 RBI, 1,376 hits
• Career: 103 OPS+, 31.2 WAR
• Career: 343 SB, 71 CS (83%)
• Finished 2nd in 2011 A.L. MVP vote (.321 BA, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 212 Hits, 119 Runs, 39 SB)
• Was an All-Star, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger winner in 2011
• Led the A.L. in stolen bases three times (2008, ’09, ’13)
• Won two World Series Championships with the Red Sox (2007, 2013)

Jacoby Ellsbury was 23 years old when he made his Major League Baseball debut on June 30, 2007. There wasn’t a consistent spot in the lineup for Ellsbury because the Boston Red Sox had a set outfield with Manny Ramirez in left field, Coco Crisp in center, and J.D. Drew in right. Still, the fleet-footed lefty-swinging Ellsbury impressed in part-time duty, slashing .353/.394/.504 (131 OPS+) with 9 stolen bases in 33 games.

Ellsbury started the postseason on the bench but supplanted Crisp as the starting center fielder for the last two games of the ALCS (against the Cleveland Indians) and for all four games of the World Series against the Colorado Rockies. Ellsbury became a postseason star in Game 3 of the Fall Classic, going 4 for 5 with three doubles, two RBI, and two runs scored.

Still officially a rookie in 2008, Ellsbury still didn’t have a full-time role but started 129 games while filling in for the three veteran outfielders. Ellsbury struggled with the bat (88 OPS+) but, thanks to a league-leading 50 steals, managed to score 98 runs. He finished 3rd in the Rookie of the year voting behind Evan Longoria and Alexei Ramirez.

The Red Sox traded Crisp in the offseason, finally giving the 25-year-old Ellsbury a full-time role for 2009. He responded by slashing .298/.336/.394 (98 OPS+) while leading the majors with 70 stolen bases and the American League with 10 triples.

2010 was a lost season for Ellsbury, who broke five ribs early in April when he collided with third baseman Adrian Beltre (Ellsbury was playing left field because the Sox had signed defensive stalwart Mike Cameron to play center). Ellsbury played in only 18 games in 2010 and rubbed some teammates the wrong way by doing most of his rehab away from Boston.

Healthy again in 2011, Ellsbury looked and played like a future Hall of Famer. He set career highs in all slash-line categories (.321 BA/.376 OBP/.552 SLG) with a 146 OPS+ while also setting career-bests in HR (32), RBI (105), Hits (212), and Runs (119). His 8.3 WAR was tied for the best in the A.L. among position players, resulting in a 2nd-place MVP finish (behind Justin Verlander). He also made his only All-Star team and won his first and only Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards. Ironically, this was Ellsbury’s worst season as a base-stealer, getting caught 15 times while swiping 39 bags (72% success rate).

The injury bug hit Ellsbury again in 2012; he dislocated his shoulder in April while trying to break up a double-play. He only played in 74 games, posting a woeful 84 OPS+ with just 4 HR and 26 RBI. Mostly healthy again in 2013, Ellsbury had the second-best season of his career, although it paled in comparison to 2011. He slashed .298/.355/.426 (113 OPS+), hit 9 HR with 53 RBI and stole 52 bases (while only getting caught 4 times). His baserunning and defensive prowess resulted in a 5.8 WAR.

Ellsbury had a strong postseason, helping the Red Sox to another World Series championship. In 16 games, he slashed .344/.409/.438 with 6 steals and 14 runs scored.

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In the offseason, Ellsbury continued a long-time trend of Red Sox stars joining the New York Yankees. The Yankees inked the 30-year-old Ellsbury to a seven-year, $153 million contract. Ultimately, this was one of the worst free-agent signings in the history of the Yankees.

Even at the time, there were concerns about Ellsbury’s injury history and those concerns turned out to be well-founded. Ellsbury only played in four seasons (2014-17), averaging 130 games, 10 HR, 50, 68 Runs, and 26 SB. He missed the entire 2018 and 2019 seasons due to injury before being released on November 20, 2019.

On the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, I would be surprised if Ellsbury even gets one vote. He had two Hall-caliber campaigns (2011 and 2013) but the way his career ended made Cooperstown an impossibility.

Jacoby Ellsbury’s “most similar” players — Shane Victorino, Roberto Kelly, Terry Moore, Lenny Dykstra, Starling Marte

Cooperstown Cred: Jhonny Peralta (SS)

• Indians (2003-10), Tigers (2010-13), Cardinals (2014-17)
• Career: .267 BA, 202 HR, 873 RBI, 1,761 Hits
• Career: 102 OPS+, 30.4 WAR
• 3-time All-Star

Jhonny Peralta, signed by the Cleveland Indians out of the Dominican Republic at the age of 16, made his MLB debut with the Tribe in June 2003. The 21-year right-handed hitting shortstop was a replacement for the injured Omar Vizquel, who is also on the current BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.

Vizquel was healthy in 2005, so Peralta spent virtually the entire season with Buffalo (AAA), where he was the International League Player of the year. With Peralta ready for the big job, Vizquel was allowed to leave as a free agent after the season.

Peralta had the best hitting season of his career in his first full campaign as the Indians starting shortstop; he hit .292 with 24 HR, 78 RBI, and a 137 OPS+. By WAR (5.1), he was the second-best shortstop in the American League (behind Miguel Tejada). If the 2006 version of Peralta had stuck, he might have been a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate. Instead, his offensive production was inconsistent and his defense was usually subpar.

In 2007, the Indians won the A.L. Central with 96 wins, putting Peralta on the national stage for the first time. In the A.L. Division Series (against the Yankees), Peralta hit .467 in the Tribe’s 3-to-1 series win. Then, in the ALCS, Peralta was one of the hitting stars in Games 2 and 4.

In Game 2 (at Fenway Park), Peralta went 3 for 5 with a three-run home run and 4 RBI. Then, in Game 4 in Cleveland, Peralta’s three-run tater in the bottom of the 5th sealed the deal in a 7-1 victory. The Indians, with a 3-to-1 series lead, seemed poised to return to the World Series for the first time since 1997. Alas, the Red Sox swept the Indians in the last three games, outscoring the Tribe 30 to 5. Peralta went 1 for 10 in those final three games.

Peralta spent another 2 1/2 seasons in Cleveland before being dealt to the Detroit Tigers in July 2010 for reliever Giovanni Soto. In 2009, he moved to 3rd base to make room for Asdrubal Cabrera. With the Tigers, he was back at shortstop, replacing light-hitting Ramon Santiago.

Peralta enjoyed considerable success with the Tigers from 2011-13; the team made the playoffs all three seasons, advancing to the World Series in 2012. The veteran shortstop was an All-Star twice in those three seasons, averaging 15 HR and 68 RBI with a 108 OPS+. Peralta’s final season in Detroit, however, was marred by a 50-game suspension due to his role in the Biogenesis PED scandal.

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After the 2013 campaign, despite the PED suspension, Peralta signed as a free agent with the St. Louis Cardinals (the defending N.L. Champions), earning a four-year, $53 million contract.

By WAR (5.8), 2014 was his best overall season; he hit .263 with 21 HR, 75 RBI, and a 117 OPS+. By the metrics, he also had a superb season defensively, one so much better than any other campaign that one might surmise that there was a good deal of luck involved. Regardless, he finished 14th in the MVP vote, the only time he got down-ballot consideration for that award.

Peralta came into the 2014 playoffs with a solid career postseason resume (.283 BA, .326 OBP, .506 SLG) but struggled in his first October outing with the Redbirds, slashing just .161/.257/.194. The Cards lost in the NLDS to the San Francisco Giants, the same team that beat Peralta’s Tigers in the 2012 World Series.

Peralta played only one more full season in Major League Baseball. He was an All-Star in 2015 but tailed off significantly in the second half of the season. Peralta played in only 82 games in 2016 due to a thumb injury. In 2017, he played in only 21 games for the Cardinals before being released. He signed a minor league contract with the Boston Red Sox but only hit .200 in 10 games with the Pawtucket Red Sox and was released again. He would never appear in the major leagues again.

At 6’2″ and 225 pounds, Peralta was one of the many shortstops in the modern game who looked more suited to play third base but his hitting was insufficient to play the hot corner. From a value perspective, Peralta also added nothing on the basepaths, stealing just 17 bases in 15 seasons. Peralta had a solid career in Major League Baseball, but he’s far short of Cooperstown caliber.

Jhonny Peralta’s “most similar” players: Asdrubal Cabrera, Bret Boone, Juan Uribe, Jay Bell, Brandon Phillips

Cooperstown Cred: Matt Cain (SP)

• Giants (2005-17)
• Career: 104-118 (.468 WL%), 3.68 ERA
• Career: 108 ERA+, 29.3 WAR
• 3-time All-Star
• Won three World Series Championships with the Giants (2010, ’12, ’14)
• Career postseason: 4-2, 2.10 ERA

Matt Cain spent his entire 13-year Major League Baseball career with the San Francisco Giants, participating in three World Series title runs (although he didn’t pitch in the 2014 postseason). Cain, who debuted at the age of 20 in 2005, was usually the second banana in the Giants’ rotation (behind Tim Lincecum or Madison Bumgarner) but he was a consistent and durable presence, until he wasn’t.

After 7 starts in 2005 (2-1, 2.33 ERA), the 21-year-old right-hander was inconsistent in his official rookie campaign, going 13-12 with a 4.15 ERA. Cain pitched with terrible luck in 2007-08, going just 15-30 despite a solid 3.71 ERA (120 ERA+). In 66 starts over those two campaigns, Cain got an average of just 3.15 runs per game in support. The Giants scored zero or one run in 16 of those starts.

Cain’s fortunes improved in 2009 when he went 14-8 with a 2.78 ERA (147 ERA+) and made his first All-Star team. The Giants began their run of up-and-down brilliance in 2010; Cain contributed to the 92-win Giants with a 13-11 record (3.14 ERA).

Cain, who turned 26 on October 1, 2010, was brilliant in the postseason, giving up just one run (which was unearned) in 21.1 innings in three October starts. The Giants cruised to a 4-to-1 World Series win over the Texas Rangers.

The 6’3″ righty, who went by the nicknames Big Sugar and The Horse, went 12-11 with a 2.88 ERA in 2011, finishing 8th in the Cy Young vote.

Before the 2012 season, the Giants signed their 27-year-ace to a five-year contract extension for $112.5 million. Combined with the $15 million he was scheduled to be paid for 2012, the guaranteed income over six years (for $127.5 million) represented the biggest contract ever for a right-handed pitcher.

Cain went 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 2012, earning him the start (and win in his 3rd and final All-Star appearance. On June 13th, Cain threw the 22nd perfect game in baseball history, striking out 14 batters in a 10-0 win over the Houston Astros.

He also finished 6th in the Cy Young tally, his highest finish ever. The Giants won the World Series again in 2012 although Cain was not quite as brilliant, going 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA in five October starts. Still, he started each of the team’s three series-clinching games, Game 5 of the NLDS (against the Cincinnati Reds), Game 7 of the NLCS (against the St. Louis Cardinals), and Game 4 of the World Series (against the Detroit Tigers).

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The 2013 season started well enough for Cain; he pitched 6 innings of scoreless ball. After that, however, he was positively terrible. Cain gave up 9 runs in the 3rd inning of his second start of the season (against the Cardinals) and gave up 7 more in his 4th start (in Milwaukee). His ERA after four starts was an unsightly 7.15. Cain mostly righted the ship for the rest of the season (going 8-8 with a 3.56 ERA in his final 26 starts) but, overall, it was the worst of his first 9 seasons in the majors.

It went all downhill from there for Matt Cain. In 15 starts in 2014, he went 2-7 with a 4.18 ERA before being shut down for the season early in July due to bone chips in his right elbow.

2015 was even worse: with a flexor strain in his forearm slowing him down, Cain was limited to just 13 starts, going 2-4 with a 5.79 ERA. In his final two seasons, bothered by elbow and hamstring woes, Cain went 7-19 with a 5.52 ERA in 48 appearances (40 starts). He retired at the age of 33 after the 2017 campaign.

For the first eight seasons of his career, Cain went 85-78 with a 3.27 ERA, which translates to a well-above-average 124 ERA+. Through the end of 2012 (his age 27 season), he had made three All-Star teams, earned down-ballot Cy Young consideration three times, and had a career WAR of 30.5.

To put that performance in perspective, Cain’s 30.5 WAR through his age 27 season is the 6th-highest total for any pitcher (through their respective age 27 seasons) to debut in 1995 or later. There was plenty of time for him to build a Hall of Fame resume.

Unfortunately, in his final five seasons, Cain was 14-40 with a 4.82 ERA. His ERA+ was just 78, and his total WAR for those five years was -1.2.

Cain will be one-and-done, appearing only on the 2023 ballot and not on any thereafter.

Matt Cain’s “most similar” players: Anibal Sanchez, Pete Harnisch, Mike Witt, Bill Singer, Zane Smith

Cooperstown Cred: Jayson Werth (RF)

• Blue Jays (2002-03, Dodgers (2004-05), Phillies (2007-10), Nationals (2011-17)
• Career: .267 BA, 229 HR, 799 RBI, 1,465 Hits
• Career: 117 OPS+, 29.2 WAR
• 2009 N.L. All-Star
• Won the 2008 World Series Championship with the Phillies
• Career postseason: .251 BA, .369 OBP, .524 SLG, 15 HR, 30 RBI

Jayson Werth was seemingly born to play Major League Baseball. His grandfather, Dick “Ducky” Schofield played for 19 years as a mostly backup shortstop; he was a member of the 1960 World Champion Pittsburgh Pirates. Werth’s uncle was Dick Schofield, who played for 14 seasons in MLB, mostly with the California Angels. And his stepfather was Dennis Werth, who was a backup first baseman for four seasons with the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals.

Jayson, a first-round draft pick by the Baltimore Orioles, was traded twice before his first full season in the majors, first to the Toronto Blue Jays and then to the Los Angeles Dodgers. After a couple of short-lived stints in the bigs with the Jays in 2003-04, Werth became a regular player for the first time in June 2004 as the starting left fielder on the Dodgers. He hit 16 HR with 47 RBI in just 326 plate appearances and also hit two taters in the NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals, which the Dodgers lost in four games.

Slowed down by a fractured radius in his left wrist (thanks to a spring training pitch from A.J. Burnett), Werth regressed a bit in 2005 before missing the entire 2006 campaign with complications from that wrist injury.

The Dodgers decided to let Werth go and he was signed by the Philadelphia Phillies as a free agent in December 2006. Werth, now 28 years old, served as a backup to left fielder Pat Burrell and right fielder Shane Victorino on the 2007 Phillies, who won the National League East before falling to the Colorado Rockies in the NLDS. With his strong bat (120 OPS+) and superior defense, Werth produced a 3.0 WAR in just 94 games.

After the 2007 campaign, center fielder Aaron Rowand left the Phillies as a free agent. This allowed Victorino to move to center field and give the right-handed hitting Werth a chance at more playing time in a platoon in right field with Geoff Jenkins. The 33-year-old Jenkins struggled in what was his final MLB campaign, allowing Werth to become the full-time starter in August. He finished the season with 24 HR, 67 RBI, 20 stolen bases, a 122 OPS+, and a 3.7 WAR.

Werth became known to baseball fans nationwide with a strong postseason (.309 BA, 2 HR, 4 RBI), one in which the Phillies went on to win the World Series over the Tampa Bay Rays. In the series-clinching Game 5 of the Fall Classic, Werth delivered a tie-breaking RBI single in the bottom of the 6th to help the Phils to the win and the title.

In his age 30 season, Werth became a full-time player for the first time in 2009, and he delivered career-bests in HR (36) and RBI (99) while stealing another 20 bases. He also produced a 127 OPS+ and 4.5 WAR. He was an All-Star for the first and only time in his career and finished 17th in the MVP voting.

In the postseason, Werth slashed .275/.403/.726, hitting 7 home runs with 13 RBI. In Game 4 of the NLDS at Coors Field in Colorado, Werth delivered a tie-breaking RBI single in the top of the 9th off Huston Street to give the Phillies a 5-4 lead and, ultimately, a victory to put them in the NLCS. Playing against his former team (the Dodgers) in the NLCS, Werth went 3 for 4 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI in the decisive Game 5. Werth had another strong World Series performance (including two home runs off Andy Pettitte in Game 3) but the Phillies ultimately succumbed to the New York Yankees in 6 games.

Werth followed up his strong 2009 campaign with another one in 2010; he hit .296 with 27 HR, an NL-leading 46 doubles, and 85 RBI. He had a 144 OPS+ and, again, a 4.5 WAR. He finished 8th in the MVP voting. The Phillies did not return to the World Series, losing in six games in the NLCS to the San Francisco Giants.

A free agent again, Werth cashed in on his prolific production by signing a seven-year, $126 million contract with the Washington Nationals. It was, at the time, the 14th-highest contract in MLB history. The deal looked like a bad one for the Nats in Werths’ first two seasons in the nation’s capital. He had a combined WAR of just 2.1 for those campaigns, with a mediocre 107 OPS+. He missed half of the 2012 campaign due to another break of his left wrist.

Led by 19-year-old rookie Bryce Harper, the 2012 Nationals made the postseason for the first time since the franchise moved from Montreal. Although the Nats would fall in the NLDS to the St. Louis Cardinals, Werth had a signature moment with a walk-off home run in Game 4 to extend the series to a 5th game.

Werth’s best two campaigns with the Nationals were in 2013 and 2014 when he produced 8.8 in WAR and a combined 143 OPS+. The Nats missed the playoffs in 2013 but returned in ’14, only to fall to the Giants again in 4 games, with Werth having an uncharacteristically weak October showing (he went 1 for 17 with no RBI).

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Werth missed nearly half of 2015 due to injuries, including another fracture of his left wrist thanks to another HBP. He was healthy in 2016 but only played in 70 games in 2017 due to a fractured left foot.

Overall, Werth was mostly ineffective in the final years of his contract, producing a negative WAR (-1.9) and a lowly OPS+ of 90. The Nats made the playoffs in both 2016 and 2017 but lost in the LDS round both times. Werth’s last at bat in Major League Baseball was a ninth-inning strikeout against the Chicago Cubs’ Wade Davis in Washington’s Game 5 loss.

Now 38, Werth signed a minor league contract with the Seattle Mariners for the 2018 season but he never made it back to the majors. He officially retired on June 28, 2018, at the age of 39.

Werth, of course, is not going to make the Hall of Fame but he had a solid peak of eight seasons (2008-14) in which, by WAR, he was the 14th most productive player in the National League.

Jayson Werth’s “most similar” players: Kevin McReynolds, Bill Nicholson, J.D. Drew, Cliff Floyd, Michael Cuddyer

Cooperstown Cred: J.J. Hardy (SS)

• Brewers (2005-09), Twins (2010), Orioles (2011-17)
• Career: .256 BA, 188 HR, 688 RBI, 1,488 Hits
• Career: 91 OPS+, 28.1 WAR
• 2-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove Winner

Unlike the other first-time shortstop candidate for the Hall of Fame (Jhonny Peralta), J.J. Hardy was known more for his glove than for his bat. Based on the fielding component of WAR (Rfield), Hardy was the 6th highest-rated shortstop during his 13-year MLB career but one of the least productive offensively, despite five seasons in which he hit 20 or more home runs.

The right-handed hitting Hardy, a second-round draft pick by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2001, made his Major League Baseball debut with the Brewers on Opening Day 2005 as the team’s starting shortstop. After a decent rookie campaign (1.8 WAR), Hardy missed most of the 2006 season due to an ankle injury.

Hardy, who had never hit more than 12 home runs in the minor leagues, showed significant power in the first half of the 2007 campaign, swatting 18 home runs with 54 runs batted in. That power performance was good enough to give him a berth as a reserve on the N.L. All-Star team. His power output dissipated in the second half of the season, however; he finished with 26 HR and 80 RBI (to go with a 101 OPS+ and 3.2 WAR).

By WAR, Hardy had his career-best season in 2008, the year that the Brewers made the playoffs for the first time since 1982. He hit 24 HR with 74 RBI while producing a 115 OPS+ and 4.8 WAR, thanks to strong defensive metrics. The Brewers lost to the Phillies in the NLDS but Hardy hit .429 in the losing effort.

Hardy had an awful 2009 (.229 BA, 11 HR, 47 HR, 75 OPS+, 0.5 WAR) in what was his final season with the Brewers. He was traded to the Minnesota Twins in the offseason for center fielder Carlos Gomez, who would later blossom into a star in Milwaukee.

Because of a wrist injury, Hardy only appeared in 101 games in his one season with the Twins. He hit just 6 HR with 38 RBI, while posting an OPS+ of 96 and a 1.3 WAR. In December, he was traded to the Baltimore Orioles.

Hardy’s first three seasons with the Orioles were reminiscent of his best years with the Brewers. In 2011, he slugged 30 HR (to go with 80 RBI and a 114 OPS+), and followed that up with 22 HR in 2012 and 25 in 2013. He won three consecutive Gold Gloves with the Orioles (from 2012-14), the Silver Slugger Award in 2013 and he also made the ’13 All-Star team. From 2011-14, he averaged a WAR of 3.5 thanks to the strong defensive metrics that were reflected in the Gold Gloves. His power stroke sagged, however, in 2014; he only hit 9 HR with 52 RBI.

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Hardy’s production sagged significantly in his final three seasons with the Orioles: from 2015-17 he slashed a lowly .237/.275/.351 (68 OPS+) and had a combined 1.7 WAR for those seasons. The Orioles declined Hardy’s contract option for 2018 and he never played again.

For the totality of his career, Hardy was a below-average hitter and well-above-average fielder. He didn’t add much value on the basepaths, stealing just 8 bases in 13 years.

J.J. Hardy will never make it into the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown but he was elected to the Orioles Hall of Fame in 2021.

J.J. Hardy’s “most similar” players: Alex Gonzalez, Brandon Crawford, Elston Howard, Aaron Hill, Rich Aurilia

Cooperstown Cred: Mike Napoli (C/1B)

• Angels (2006-2010), Rangers (2011-12, ’15, ’17), Red Sox (2013-15), Indians (2016)
• Career: .246 BA, 267 HR, 744 RBI, 1,125 Hits
• Career: 117 OPS+, 26.3 WAR
• 2012 A.L. All-Star
• Won the 2013 World Series Championship with the Red Sox

Like Joe Mauer, who will be on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot a year from now, Mike Napoli started his career as a catcher but finished as a first baseman. Napoli was always a “good hitter for a catcher” but was more pedestrian as a first baseman.

Napoli was 24 when he made his MLB debut with the Los Angeles Angels. He showed his power potential in his rookie campaign, hitting 16 home runs in 325 plate appearances. However, under manager Mike Scioscia (a former catcher), Napoli never earned the job full-time behind the dish, always splitting time with Jose Molina and Jeff Mathis, who were much weaker hitters but stronger defensively.

In his final year with the Angels (in 2010), the slugging right-handed hitter played in 140 games because Scioscia gave him 67 starts at first base. Overall, Napoli averaged 18 home runs per season in his five years in Anaheim, posting a solid 119 OPS+ and an average WAR of 2.2 per campaign.

In January 2011, Napoli was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays in the trade that brought Vernon Wells to Anaheim. Four days later, the Jays dealt him to the Texas Rangers. Manager Ron Washington used him similarly to Scioscia, splitting Napoli’s time between catcher and first base, also starting him as the team’s designated hitter 18 times.

In what was his age 29 season, Napoli had by far the best campaign of his career, slashing .320/414/.631 (173 OPS+) with 30 HR and 75 RBI (in just 432 plate appearances). That multi-faceted offensive showing was worth a 5.5 WAR.

Napoli’s bat remained hot in the Rangers’ long postseason run. In 17 games, he slashed .328/.414/.500 with 3 HR and 15 RBI. Napoli’s signature moment occurred in Game 4 of the World Series when he hit a three-run tater to propel Texas to a 4-0 victory. (The Rangers ultimately fell to the St. Louis Cardinals in 7 games).

Napoli made his first and only All-Star squad in 2012 but otherwise regressed significantly, posting a slash line of .227/.343/.469 (117 OPS+) with 24 HR and just 56 RBI.

A free agent in the offseason, Napoli signed with the Boston Red Sox, who decided that his catching days were best left in the past. Mostly hitting behind future Hall of Famer David Ortiz, Napoli had a solid first season in Beantown, hitting 23 HR with 92 RBI (and a 128 OPS+). Napoli was one of several key free agent signings by General Manager Ben Cherington, helping the Red Sox improve from 69 wins in 2012 to 97 in 2013, resulting in an A.L. East title.

Napoli only hit .217 in the postseason, but he did deliver some key blows that helped Boston to the World Series title. In Game 3 of the ALCS (against the Detroit Tigers), Napoli hit a solo home run off Justin Verlander to plate the only run in the Red Sox’ 1-0 victory. Then, in Game 1 of the World Series (against the St. Louis Cardinals), Napoli set the tone with a first-inning, bases-clearing double off Adam Wainwright.

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Napoli was one of the few bright offensive bright spots on the 2014 Sox who (as a team) slumped badly to 71 wins in 2014. Now 33 years old, Napoli struggled badly in 2015 (hitting just .207 in 98 games) before being traded back to Texas.

Napoli joined Terry Francona‘s Cleveland Indians for the 2016 campaign. Splitting time between first base and DH, he set career highs in HR (34) and RBI (101) but only hit .239, leading to a 106 OPS+ and 1.0 WAR. On the negative side, he also set a career-high with 194 strikeouts. Napoli struggled in October, slashing a meager .173/.232/.289. The Indians made it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series before losing to the Chicago Cubs.

In what would turn out to be his final MLB campaign, Napoli had his third go-around with the Rangers. In what was a feast or famine season, he hit 29 home runs with 66 RBI but hit only .193 (80 OPS+).

Napoli returned to the Indians in 2018 but missed most of the season due to injury, playing in only 8 games at AAA. He announced his retirement on December 8, 2018.

Even though he was mostly a part-time player during his catching years, Mike Napoli’s bat was prolific enough to rank him as the 5th best catcher (by WAR) from 2006-12. Because first base is a position where top-flight offense is expected and required, he ranked just 16th among MLB first sackers from 2013-17.

If there were a Hall of Fame for baseball beards, Napoli would be a strong candidate. As a BBWAA candidate for Cooperstown, he’s likely to not get a single vote.

Mike Napoli’s “most similar” players: Dean Palmer, Tony Batista, Dan Uggla, Mickey Tettleton, Howard Johnson

Cooperstown Cred: Bronson Arroyo (SP)

• Pirates (2000-02), Red Sox (2003-05), Reds (2006-13, ’17), Diamondbacks (2014)
• Career: 148-137 (.519 WL%), 4.28 ERA
• Career: 101 ERA+, 24.7 WAR
• 2006 N.L. All-Star
• Won the 2010 N.L. Gold Glove
• Won the 2004 World Series Championship with the Red Sox

Bronson Arroyo, a third-round pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1995, was a late bloomer. From 2000 to 2002, he shuttled back and forth from the Pirates to their AAA affiliate in Nashville. With the big club, the 6’3″ right-hander went 9-14 with a 5.44 ERA.

He was claimed off waivers by the Red Sox in February 2003 and spent most of the season pitching in Pawtucket, Rhode Island. In August, he pitched the fourth nine-inning perfect game in the history of the International League. He did get a late-August call-up to the BoSox and was in the bullpen during the team’s postseason run, giving up one run in 3.1 innings.

Arroyo was 27 years old when he finally had a full season in the majors. Arroyo was the fifth starter on a Red Sox staff that featured future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. He went 10-9 with a 4.03 ERA.

Arroyo made six appearances in the postseason (with two starts), posting a 7.82 ERA. He might be best remembered for the controversial play in Game 6 when Alex Rodriguez knocked the ball from Arroyo’s glove while he was applying a tag. The umpires reversed the ruling that A-Rod was safe, calling him out for runner interference. The Red Sox famously went on to win the ALCS against A-Rod and the New York Yankees before winning the franchise’s first World Series title since 1918.

Arroyo went 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA in 2005. The following January, he signed a three-year, $11.2 million contract with the team, which he called a “discount” deal that he signed against the advice of his agents because he liked pitching in Boston. Just two months later, General Manager Theo Epstein “rewarded” Arroyo for his loyalty by trading him to the Cincinnati Reds for the immortal Wily Mo Pena.

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The trade turned out to be a disaster for the Red Sox. The righty with the high leg kick had the best season of his career with the Reds, going 14-11 with a 3.29 ERA. He led the majors with 240.2 innings pitched and made his first and only All-Star squad.

Arroyo pitched for seven more seasons in Cincinnati, going 91-83 with a 4.18 ERA. Unfortunately, going from Boston to Cincinnati served to severely limit Arroyo’s postseason exposure. The Reds made the playoffs three times in Arroyo’s eight campaigns in the Queen City. He pitched well in two Division Series starts with the Reds, going 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA. The Reds lost both of those LDS series.

Arroyo became a free agent again after the 2013 campaign and signed a two-year contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks the following February. Arroyo had been one of the most durable pitchers in baseball, going at least 199 innings for nine straight campaigns. Unfortunately for the D-Backs, the 37-year-old’s run of good health came to an end in 2014. After 14 starts, Arroyo went on the disabled list and underwent Tommy John surgery.

Arroyo didn’t pitch in 2015 but was traded twice within six weeks, first to the Braves and then to the Dodgers. After never pitching for either team, he became a free agent again after the season and signed a minor league contract with the Washington Nationals. Arroyo pitched only 9 innings in the Gulf Coast League in 2016 and was released in October.

After missing two full MLB seasons, Arroyo re-signed with the Reds but was ineffective, going 3-6 with a 7.35 ERA in 14 starts. He officially retired on September 24, 2017.

Bronson Arroyo had a solid career but, of course, he’s not a Hall of Famer.

Bronson Arroyo’s “most similar” players: Kyle Lohse, Brad Radke, Tim Belcher, Kevin Tapani, Ervin Santana

Cooperstown Cred: R.A. Dickey (SP)

• Rangers (2001, 2003-06), Mariners (2009), Mets (2010-12), Blue Jays (2013-16), Braves (2017)
• Career: 120-118 (.504 WL%), 4.04 ERA
• Career: 103 ERA+, 29.1 WAR
• 2012 N.L. Cy Young Award Winner (20-6, 2.73 ERA, 230 Strikeouts)
• 2012 N.L. All-Star
• Won the Gold Glove in 2013

In the last segment, I referred to Bronson Arroyo as a “late bloomer.” That term suits knuckleball specialist R.A. Dickey even better. Until he was 36 years old, Dickey spent all or part of every one of his professional baseball seasons in the minor leagues.

Dickey was the 18th overall pick in the 1996 player draft, selected by the Texas Rangers. He didn’t make his MLB debut until April 2001 at the age of 26. He only appeared in four games, posting a 6.75 ERA, before being sent back to the Rangers’ AAA affiliate in Oklahoma.

Dickey didn’t return to the majors until 2003. He spent parts of four seasons with the Rangers, going 16-18 with a 5.67 ERA. A free agent after the season, he signed with the Milwaukee Brewers and spent the 2007 campaign pitching for the team’s AAA club in Nashville.

Dickey has said that he had thrown the occasional knuckleball for years but it was in 2005, at the suggestion of pitching coach Orel Hershiser, that he started throwing it the majority of the time.

In 2008 and 2009, Dickey bounced back and forth between the organizations of the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins, going 6-9 with a 4.99 ERA in those two campaigns. His most notable accomplishment during those years was tieing the MLB record with four wild pitches in an inning.

In December 2009, he signed a minor-league free-agent contract with the New York Mets. You would have gotten long odds in Las Vegas that the 35-year-old Dickey would be a future Cy Young Award winner. Dickey started the season in AAA Buffalo before getting called up in May. Dickey’s Mets career started spectacularly and a star was born; he went 6-0 in his first 7 starts with a 2.33 ERA and finished the season with a 2.84 ERA.

Dickey went 8-11 with a 3.28 ERA in 2011 but had some bad luck, tossing quality starts (at least 6 IP, 3 ER or less) in 8 of his last 10 losses.

Everything came together for Dickey in 2012, his age 37 season. He went 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA, made his first and only All-Star team, and won the Cy Young. Dickey led the N.L. with 230 strikeouts, five complete games, and three shutouts.

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The Mets decided to “sell high” on their ace, dealing him to the Toronto Blue Jays in a package that brought back pitcher Noah Syndergaard and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Dickey was solid but not Cy Young-worthy in four seasons with the Blue Jays, going 49-52 with a 4.05 ERA.

At the age of 42, Dickey’s last MLB campaign was with the Atlanta Braves, for whom he went 10-10 with a 4.26 ERA.

Since finally becoming a full-time starter in the majors at the age of 35, Dickey won 98 games and posted a 3.66 ERA. He posted a 22.2 WAR from 2010-17. That’s the 19th-highest WAR for any pitcher since 1969 in their age 35 seasons and beyond.

Unlike the famous floating knuckleballs thrown by the likes of Phil Niekro, Charlie Hough, and Tim Wakefield, Dickey’s knuckler had a bit more bite to it. According to FanGraphs, his average knuckleball speed was 75 miles per hour, just 10 MPH less than his fastball, which he threw between 12% and 22% of the time during his years in New York and Toronto.

Although he won’t make it to the Hall of Fame like Niekro, Dickey does have the distinction of being the only knuckler to win the Cy Young Award.

R.A. Dickey’s “most similar” players: Anibal Sanchez, Mike Witt, Milt Wilcox, Mike Krukow, Yovani Gallardo

Cooperstown Cred: Francisco Rodriguez (RP)

• Angels (2003-08), Mets (2008-11), Brewers (2011-13, ’14-’15), Orioles (2013), Tigers (2016-17)
• Career: 52-53 (.495 WL%), 2.86 ERA
• Career: 437 Saves (4th most all-time), 76 Blown Saves (85% success rate)
• Career: 148 ERA+, 24.2 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• Finished 3rd or 4th in the A.L. Cy Young voting three times with the Angels
• 2008: saved 62 games, the most for a single season in baseball history

If there’s any first-time candidate on the 2023 BBWAA ballot who has a chance at the Hall of Fame besides Carlos Beltran, it’s Francisco Rodriguez. This is for one and only one reason: Rodriguez has the fourth most saves in the history of Major League Baseball, behind Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith.

A native of Caracas, Venezuela, Rodriguez became an instant star as a rookie in the 2002 postseason, despite having just made his MLB debut with the Anaheim Angels on September 18th. Rodriguez won five games in relief during the Angels’ World Series title run, posting a 1.93 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 18.2 innings pitched. Besides his hard fastball, what made K-Rod virtually unhittable that October was the hard, sharply breaking curveball that he threw in the low 80s.

In Game 7 of the World Series (against the San Francisco Giants), K-Rod struck out the side in the top of the 8th inning (while wisely pitching around and walking Barry Bonds) to preserve a 4-1 lead. Angels’ closer Troy Percival sealed the deal in the 9th inning to give the Angels franchise its first and only World Series championship.

Rodriguez spent the 2003 and 2004 seasons as Percival’s set-up man before taking over the reins as the team’s closer in 2005. In 2004, he went 4-1 with 12 saves, a 1.82 ERA, and 123 strikeouts in 84 innings, earning him an All-Star berth and a 4th-place finish in the Cy Young voting.

K-Rod led the A.L. with 45 saves in 2005. In 2006, he saved an MLB-best 47 games while posting a 1.73 ERA (with 98 K’s in 73 innings). Again, he finished 4th in the Cy Young vote.

After an “off” year in 2007 (“only” 40 saves), K-Rod set the all-time single-season saves record in 2008 with 62 saves (to go with a 2.24 ERA). The previous single-season mark had belonged to Bobby Thigpen, who saved 57 games for the Chicago White Sox in 1990. Rodriguez got his record-setting 58th save early in the month, on September 13th.

Rodriguez finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting behind 20-game winners Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay.

Having just completed his age 26 season, K-Rod looked like a Hall of Famer in the making. His 202 career saves through his age 26 season were by far the most for any player at a similar age in Major League Baseball history. The second-highest total for that age was 160 (Gregg Olson of the Baltimore Orioles, who did it between 1988-93). As a point of comparison, Rivera had just five MLB saves at this age, Hoffman had 25, and Lee Smith had 80.

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Already a three-time All-Star, Rodriguez hit the free-agent market after that magical 2008 campaign and signed a three-year contract with the New York Mets for $37 million. Although he was only 27 years old when he moved from Anaheim to New York, the 2009 campaign was the first one that turned K-Rod from someone who looked like a Hall of Famer in the making to someone who now doesn’t look like one now, at least to this writer.

In 2009, the first season for the Mets’ new ballpark (Citi Field), K-Rod had a mediocre debut campaign in Queens. Although he saved 35 games (out of 42 chances), Rodriguez went 3-6 and posted the worst ERA of his career (3.71 ERA).

In 2010, Rodriguez was suspended for two games because of charges that he assaulted his girlfriend’s father. He pitched one more game for the Mets in 2010 before having season-ending thumb surgery. (The thumb injury might have occurred during the altercation). He saved 25 games before his season ended.

After K-Rod saved 23 games for the Mets in 2011, they traded him to the Milwaukee Brewers (in mid-July). Rodriguez became a set-up man to closer John Axford. He remained in that role for the 2012 campaign and had the worst season of his career, going 2-7 with a 4.38 ERA.

Rodriguez saved 10 games for the Brewers in 2013 before a late July trade to the Baltimore Orioles, where he was again a set-up man, this time to closer Jim Johnson. He rejoined the Brewers as a free agent for the 2014 campaign and was the full-time closer again. K-Rod saved 44 games in 2014 and 38 more in 2015, making the All-Star team in both seasons.

After the season, Rodriguez was traded to the Detroit Tigers; he saved 44 games for the Tigers in 2016, his age 34 season. Unfortunately for K-Rod, he struggled mightily at the outset of 2017, posting an unsightly 8.49 ERA in his first 17 games while blowing four out of ten save chances. Manager Brad Ausmus demoted him from his closer role and Rodriguez continued to struggle, posting a 7.24 ERA in his next 15 outings. He was released on June 23rd with a 2-5 record and a 7.82 ERA and never pitched in the major leagues again.

Rodriguez signed a minor league deal with the Washington Nationals shortly after his release from the Tigers but was released nine days later. He tried another comeback with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2018 but was released toward the end of spring training.

Because of his high career saves total, it’s certainly possible that Francisco Rodriguez will get some support for the Hall of Fame. It helps also that this is a weak ballot, giving writers “space” on their 10-player-maximum ballots to check the name of a player that they might consider a borderline candidate.

Why am I dismissive of K-Rod’s Hall of Fame candidacy, despite the fact that he saved 15 more games than Billy Wagner, who got 51% of the vote on the 2022 ballot? It’s simple: Wagner was much, much better. Wagner’s career ERA (2.31) is more than a half-run better than K-Rod’s. Wagner had a much lower WHIP (0.998 to 1.155) and, although lacking the flashy nickname, a better strikeout ratio (11.9 K/9 IP compared to K-Rod’s 10.5).

The bottom line is this: Francisco Rodriguez pitched like a future Hall of Famer in Anaheim (202 saves, 2.35 ERA, 189 ERA+) but, for the rest of his career, he was quite ordinary (229 saves, 3.30 ERA, 122 ERA+). Among the 62 pitchers who logged at least 400 innings from 2009-17 (with 80% of appearances in the bullpen), Rodriguez’s 3.30 ERA is just the 24th best.

Rodriguez will probably get more than 5% of the vote and remain on the 2024 ballot, but I doubt he’ll get much more than 5%.

Francisco Rodriguez’s “most similar” players: Joe Nathan, Billy Wagner, Jeff Reardon, Francisco Cordero, Trevor Hoffman

Cooperstown Cred: Andre Ethier (RF)

• Dodgers (2006-17)
• Career: .285 BA, 162 HR, 687 RBI, 1,367 Hits
• Career: 122 OPS+, 21.5 WAR
• 2-time N.L. All-Star
• Won the 2009 Silver Slugger Award and the 2011 Gold Glove Award

With no disrespect intended, I wonder why Andre Ethier is even on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. If there was a conscious decision to limit the first-time candidates to seven position players and seven pitchers, a better choice for the 7th position player might have been Carlos Ruiz, a solid defensive catcher for the glory years of the Philadelphia Phillies. (I’m not saying that Ruiz is a Hall of Famer either, not even close, just a better candidate).

Ethier was originally drafted by the Oakland Athletics in 2001 but was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in December 2005 for Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez. He made his MLB debut with the Dodgers the following May and spent his entire 12-year MLB career with the Dodgers.

He finished 5th in the N.L. Rookie of the Year voting in 2006 (thanks to a .308 BA) and continued to be a regular fixture in the Dodgers lineup from 2007-15. He had one especially strong season (in 2009) when he hit 31 HR with 106 RBI, which earned him a Silver Slugger Award and a 6th-place finish in the MVP voting.

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Ethier was an All-Star in 2010 and 2011, with the highlight of the ’11 campaign being a 30-game hitting streak early in the season. Ethier also won his first and only Gold Glove in 2011.

In 2014, his age 32 season, Ethier became a part-time player since the Dodgers had three other outfielders (Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, and Yasiel Puig).

After a strong 2015 campaign (in which he posted a career-best 137 OPS+ in 445 plate appearances), Ethier missed most of the 2016 season with a fractured right tibia. He also missed most of the 2017 campaign because of a herniated disc. The Dodgers declined his option after the season and Ethier never played again.

Andre Ethier’s “most similar” players: Dmitri Young, Kevin Millar, Jacque Jones, Christian Yelich, Bobby Higginson

Cooperstown Cred: Huston Street (RP)

• Athletics (2005-08), Rockies (2009-11), Padres (2012-14), Angels (2014-17)
• Career: 42-34 (.553 WL%), 2.95 ERA
• Career: 324 Saves (20th most all-time), 52 Blown Saves (86% success rate)
• Career: 141 ERA+, 14.5 WAR
• 2005 A.L. Rookie of the Year (5-1, 1.72 ERA, 23 Saves)
• 2-time All-Star

Huston Street had a fantastic rookie campaign in Major League Baseball. He made the Oakland Athletics Opening Day roster in 2005 and became the team’s closer when Octavio Dotel went down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.

Street went 5-1 in 2005 with 23 saves and a spectacular 1.72 ERA. He was the American League Rookie of the Year and even earned down-ballot MVP consideration, finishing in 23rd place.

Street pitched for three more seasons with the A’s, saving 37 games in 2006 before splitting the closer duties with Alan Embree in 2007 and Brad Ziegler in 2008.

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The 25-year-old Street was a part of a blockbuster trade in November 2008 when he was dealt with Carlos Gonzalez to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Matt Holliday. Pitching half of your games in Denver instead of Oakland is not healthy for one’s ERA. In four seasons with the A’s, Street had a 2.88 ERA. In three seasons with the Rockies, it was 3.50. Still, Street managed to convert on 88% of his save opportunities (saving 84 games in three seasons).

Street was traded to the San Diego Padres after the 2011 campaign. The 28-year-old right-hander was brilliant in an injury-plagued campaign. Although he only managed to pitch in 40 games, he saved 23 games, posted a 1.85 ERA, and made his first All-Star team. Street saved an additional 57 games in 2013 and 2014 (making the All-Star team again in ’14) before being dealt to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in mid-July.

Overall, Street had a brilliant 2014 campaign, saving 41 games (out of 44 chances) while posting a career-best 1.37 ERA. Street saved an additional 40 games in 2015, recording his 300th career save on July 22nd, making him the 27th MLB pitcher to reach that milestone.

Sadly for Street, the 2015 season was his last as a productive pitcher. Plagued by injuries, he struggled badly in 2016 (he had a 6.45 ERA in 22.1 innings). He only pitched four innings in 2017 and officially retired the following March.

If Huston Street had been able to pitch deep into his 30s, he might very well have made it to the Hall of Fame. Street had 315 career saves at the end of his age 31 season, the most in baseball history (at the time) for a pitcher that young. (Craig Kimbrel has since surpassed that effort, saving 346 games by the end of his age 31 season). Again, as a point of comparison, Mariano Rivera had 215 saves at this point of his career, Trevor Hoffman had 228, and Lee Smith 234.

Alas, Street only saved 9 games in 2016 and none in 2017. His last game on an MLB mound was on July 2, 2017, a month before his 34th birthday. And, thus, he will be “one and done” on the 2023 BBWAA ballot, earning far less than the 5% needed to appear on future ballots.

Huston Street’s “most similar” players: Robb Nen, John Wetteland, Mark Melancon, Tom Henke, Jonathan Papelbon

2023 BBWAA Ballot: Returning Candidates

Finally, here are links to existing articles, posted in the last 12 months, for the 14 returning candidates to the 2022 Hall of Fame ballot, in alphabetical order.

• Abreu, Bobby (4th year on ballot)
• Buehrle, Mark (3rd year on ball0t)
• Helton, Todd (5th year on ballot)
• Hunter, Torii (3rd year on ballot)
• Jones, Andruw (6th year on ballot)
• Kent, Jeff (10th year on ballot)
• Pettitte, Andy (5th year on ballot)
• Sheffield, Gary (9th year on ballot)
• Ramirez, Manny (7th year on ballot)
• Rodriguez, Alex (2nd year on ballot)
• Rolen, Scott (6th year on ballot)
• Rollins, Jimmy (2nd year on ballot)
• Vizquel, Omar (6th year on ballot)
• Wagner, Billy (8th year on ballot)

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