Freddie Freeman’s Hall of Fame Moment

Last Friday at Dodger Stadium, Freddie Freeman had his Hall of Fame moment. In the bottom of the 10th inning of Game 1 of the World Series, with two outs and the bases loaded, Freeman drilled the first pitch from the New York Yankees’ Nestor Cortes into the right field bleachers, turning a 3-2 deficit into a 6-3 victory. It was the first walk-off grand slam in the history of the Fall Classic.

Tonight, the Dodgers paid off Freeman’s heroic blast by completing a five-game series victory. Freeman backed up his epic Game 1 blast with home runs in the next three games. He was an easy choice for the World Series MVP, finishing the Fall Classic with 12 RBI to go with his four dingers. His 12 ribbies tied the record for the most in World Series, a remarkable accomplishment for a five-game series.

In the City of Angels, home to Hollywood filmmaking, Freeman’s World Series performance was from a movie script. Freeman had been hobbled for the last month by a sprained ankle, and the Dodgers’ first baseman had struggled during the Dodgers’ first two rounds of the postseason. In his first eight games in the playoffs, Freeman was hitting just .219 with no extra-base hits and only one RBI.

In Game 1, leading by one run in the 10th, Yankees manager Aaron Boone brought in the lefty Cortes to pitch to Shohei Ohtani. The superstar from Japan fouled out to left fielder Alex Verdugo, who made a brilliant catch, tumbling into the stands over the short fence in shallow left field. Because Verdugo was on the concrete in the stands after the catch, the Dodgers’ two baserunners (Chris Taylor and Tommy Edman) were able to advance to 2nd and 3rd base, prompting Boone to intentionally walk Mookie Betts to bring up a lefty on lefty matchup against the struggling Freeman.

Freeman made him pay, and the resulting granny sent the sold-out Dodger crowd into a state of delirium. This was the third walk-off home run in the history of the Dodgers. The most recent was his teammate Max Muncy‘s solo tater in the bottom of the 18th of Game 3 of the 2018 Fall Classic.

The most famous walk-off, as all serious baseball fans know, occurred 36 years ago, in 1988, when a hobbled Kirk Gibson came off the bench to hit a two-run homer off future Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley, turning a 4-3 deficit into a 5-4 victory. Gibson did not appear again in the 1988 World Series, but his unlikely blow led the Dodgers to a 4-to-1 series win over the Oakland A’s.

This moment was different, of course. Gibson battled Eckersley in an eight-pitch at bat, and his home run was far more surprising than Freeman’s because Gibson looked overmatched during the battle, plus the fact that Eckersley had been a dominant closer, saving 45 games in the regular season, Meanwhile, Cortes was a starting pitcher being used in relief after having missed over five weeks due to an injured elbow. But the end result was the same. Just as Gibson’s unlikely blast led the Los Angeles to a five-game series win, Freeman’s did as well. The difference was that Gibson did not appear again, while Freeman played a key role in each of the Dodgers’ other three wins.

Game 1 will be forever remembered as the defining moment of Freddie Freeman’s career. When it’s his time to hit the Hall of Fame ballot, it’s the moment that the writers will remember when they check his name to get a plaque at baseball’s shrine in Cooperstown, New York.

“I felt like nothing. Just kind of floating… When you’re 5 years old with your two older brothers and you’re playing whiffle ball in the backyard, those are the scenarios you dream about — two outs, bases loaded in a World Series game. For it to actually happen, and get a home run and walk it off to give us a 1-0 lead, that’s as good as it gets right there.”

— Freddie Freeman (October 25, 2024)

Paying Off the Epic Moment

In Game 2, with the Dodgers up 3-1 in the bottom of the 3rd, Freddie Freeman hit a solo home run off Carlos Rodon to pad the lead and help Los Angeles to a 4-2 win. In Game 3 at Yankee Stadium, Freeman set the pace in the first inning with a two-run homer off Clarke Schmidt, leading the Dodgers to a 4-2 victory. Freeman also hit a first-inning two-run tater in Game 4 (off Luis Gil) in a losing effort.

Finally, in Game 5, the Dodgers were down 5-0 when the top of the 5th began, a pair of Yankees’; errors game the Dodgers a chance. With two outs and the bases loaded, Freeman hit a two-run single to center field to pull the Dodgers to within a pair of runs. The next batter (Teoscar Hernandez) hit a two-run double, with Freeman flying around the bases to score the tying run as if his ankle was 100%.

Freeman finished the Series with 12 RBI. With his home runs in Games 1 through 4 plus his home runs in Games 5 & 6 with the Braves in 2021, he became the first player ever to hit a home run in six straight World Series games.

This World Series was the first matchup between the Yankees and Dodgers since 1981, the rookie year of the late Fernando Valenzuela, who sadly passed away last Tuesday and was remembered throughout this Fall Classic. It’s a World Series that featured three players who are nearly certain to make the Hall of Fame in the future (Ohtani, Betts, and Aaron Judge) and four others who are strong to decent possibilities (Freeman, Juan Soto, Gerrit Cole, and Giancarlo Stanton). And there’s also Clayton Kershaw (a Cooperstown lock), who was on the Dodgers roster, but he is injured and didn’t pitch.

In this piece, I’ll make the case for why I felt that Freeman was already on a Hall of Fame track. Gibson’s famous home run was the signature moment of an excellent career, but he was never a serious Hall of Fame candidate. When Freeman’s time comes, he’ll join the pantheon of greats such as David Ortiz, Reggie Jackson, Sandy Koufax, and Mariano Rivera, mainly remembered for what they did in October.

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Cooperstown Cred: Freddie Freeman (1B)

• Atlanta Braves (2010-21), Los Angeles Dodgers (2022-24)
• Career: 343 HR, 1,232 RBI, 2,267 Hits, .300 BA, .387 OBP, .512 SLG
• Career: 142 OPS+, 60.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 8-time All-Star
• 3-time Silver Slugger Award Winner; won 2018 Gold Glove Award
• Won the 2020 N.L. MVP (COVID-shortened season): 13 HR, 53 RBI, .341 BA, 187 OPS+
• Let N.L. in doubles four times, runs three times, and hits twice
• Member of the 2021 World Series Champion Atlanta Braves (.318, 2 HR, 5 RBI in World Series)
• World Series MVP as member of the 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers (.277, 4 HR, 12 RBI in the World Series)
• Career postseason: .277 BA, 14 HR, 36 RBI

(cover photo: AP News/Ashley Landis)

This piece was originally posted on Friday, October 25th, the day after Game 1 of the World Series. It has been updated to reflect the Dodgers’ series win.

Freddie Freeman: Atlanta Braves (2010-21)

Frederick Charles Freeman was born on September 12, 1989, in Fountain Valley, California (Orange County), to Fred and Rosemary Freeman. The Freemans were both natives of Canada and thus, Freddie Freeman is a dual citizen of both the United States and Canada. Sadly, Rosemary died of melanoma when Freddie was ten years old. Freeman always wears long-sleeved shirts during games to honor her memory.

At the age of 17, the left-handed-hitting Freeman was drafted in the 2nd round of the amateur draft by the Atlanta Braves, and Freeman signed with the team for $409,500, forgoing a college scholarship at Cal State Fullerton.

Three years later, eleven days before his 21st birthday, Freeman was called up, and he made his Major League Baseball debut on September 1, 2010, at Turner Field. This was Hall of Fame manager Bobby Cox’s last campaign in the dugout for the Braves.

After the season, the Braves let veteran first baseman Troy Glaus leave to free agency (Glaus never played in MLB again), giving Freeman the opening to become the team’s starting first sacker. Fredi Gonzalez was the team’s new skipper. Freeman was the runner-up in the National League Rookie of the Year voting, finishing behind his teammate, closer Craig Kimbrel.

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Freeman was a presence in the Braves’ lineup for 11 years, from 2011 through 2021. The 6’5″, 220-pound Freeman got his first postseason action in 2012 when the Braves were one of the two N.L. Wild Card teams. They lost the one-game playoff to the St. Louis Cardinals despite Freeman going 3 for 4. 2012 was the final season for Hall of Famer Chipper Jones.

In 2013, Freeman’s breakout campaign, he made his first of eight All-Star appearances, although he could not play due to a thumb injury. He finished the season with a .319 batting average, with 23 home runs and 109 RBI. It was a good enough effort to put him 5th in the MVP vote. The Braves won the N.L. East in 2013 but fell to the Dodgers in four games in the N.L. Division Series.

In February 2014, Freeman was signed to an eight-year contract extension worth $135 million. The Braves missed the playoffs from 2014 to 2017, with the usually durable first baseman missing action in both ’15 and ’17, limiting him to under 120 games played in both campaigns. During the 2016 season, a 68-win campaign, Brian Snitker took over the managerial reins from Gonzalez.

In 2017, the Braves moved from Turner Field to Sun Trust Park (now named Truist Park). Freeman missed ten weeks due to a wrist fracture in his left hand.

In 2018, the Braves won the N.L. East again. Freeman played in all 162 games, hitting .309 with 23 HR and 98 RBI while leading the league in hits (191) and doubles (44). After the year, he finished 4th in the MVP vote and won his first (and only) Gold Glove. The Braves faced the Dodgers again in the NLDS and, again, lost in four games. Freeman hit his first postseason home run in Game 3, a solo shot off lefty Alex Wood.

Freeman won the first of three consecutive Silver Sluggers in 2019 (setting career-bests with 38 HR and 121 RBI), leading the Braves back to the N.L. East crown. Unfortunately, the Braves fell again in the NLDS, this time to the Cardinals.

Freeman was the N.L. MVP in 2020, the season shortened to 60 games due to COVID-19. He hit .341 with 13 HR, 53 RBI, and a 1.102 OPS (187 OPS+). The Braves won the N.L. East, but still had to play in the Wild Card round in the expanded playoffs. They defeated the Cincinnati Reds with a two-game sweep, followed by a three-game sweep over the Miami Marlins in the NLDS.

In the NLCS, Freeman and the Braves fell in seven games to the Dodgers, with Freeman hitting .360 (2 HR, 6 RBI) in the losing effort.

The 2021 Postseason

The Atlanta Braves won the N.L. East again in 2021, despite only winning 88 games, just the 5th highest total in the senior circuit. Freeman followed up his MVP campaign with a 9th-place finish, hitting .300 with 31 HR and 83 RBI.

In the NLDS, against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Braves prevailed in four games. In Game 4 (at Truist Park), the Braves and Brewers were tied at four after seven innings. In the bottom of the 8th, with two outs, Freeman hit the first offering by Josh Hader to deep left-centerfield for a solo homer, leading Atlanta to a 5-4 victory and series win.

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Next, for the fourth time in Freeman’s career, the Braves matched up against the Dodgers. This time, Atlanta prevailed. In a six-game NLCS win, Freeman hit .286 with a pair of home runs and four RBI.

This was Atlanta’s first appearance in the World Series since 1999 when the Yankees swept the Braves. In 2021, the opponent was Dusty Baker’s Houston Astros. After the teams split the first two games at Minute Maid Park, the Braves won Games 3 and 4 at home before losing 9-5 in Game 5. Freeman hit his first World Series home run (a 460-yard blast off Framber Valdez) in the losing effort.

The Braves won easily in Game 6 (by a 7-0 score). Freeman drove in the final two runs with an RBI double in the top of the 5th and a solo blast in the 7th off Ryne Stanek. Freeman recorded the final out when Yuli Gurriel grounded out to shortstop.

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Although he was a free agent (at age 32), Freeman was widely expected to remain with the Braves for the rest of his career. However, the team and Freeman’s agents didn’t see eye-to-eye on the length of his new contract; the Braves offered five years, while Freeman wanted six. So, instead, the team traded for another left-handed hitting first baseman, 27-year-old Matt Olson of the Oakland A’s.

With no future in Atlanta, Freeman signed a six-year, $162 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, bringing him home to Southern California.

Freddie Freeman: Los Angeles Dodgers (2021-23)

When Freddie Freeman joined the Dodgers, he joined a team that was a perennial underachiever in the postseason despite winning the World Series in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. The Dodgers had won the N.L. West for eight consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2020 before finishing 2nd to the San Francisco Giants in 2021 despite winning 106 games. Again, with the exception of 2020, the Dodgers won at least 91 games every year from 2013 to 2021, winning over 100 games three times. Despite that, the COVID season was the lone championship.

On manager Dave Roberts’s 2022 Dodgers, Freeman joined a strong supporting cast of right fielder Mookie Betts (the 2018 A.L. MVP with Boston), center fielder Cody Bellinger (the 2019 N.L. MVP), shortstop Trea Turner (5th in the 2021 N.L. MVP vote), as well as pitchers Clayton Kershaw (a future Hall of Famer), Walker Buehler (4th in the 2021 N.L. Cy Young vote), and Julio Urias (a 20-game winner in 2021).

During the regular season, Freeman and the Dodgers performed as expected. The team won 111 games, easily winning the N.L. West. Freeman had one of the best seasons of his career, hitting .325 with 21 HR and 100 RBI. He led the league with 117 runs, 199 hits, 47 doubles, and a .407 on-base percentage, which resulted in a 4th place finish in the MVP balloting.

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In the playoffs, the Dodgers faced off against the 89-win San Diego Padres, one of the three wild card teams. Alas, this postseason again ended in disappointment for the Dodgers, who lost 3 games to 1 in the NLDS against the Padres. Freeman hit .357 with a solo home run and a two-run double in the losing effort.

In 2023, it was more of the same. Freeman finished 3rd in the MVP vote, thanks to a .331 average, 29 HR, 102 RBI, a league-leading 59 doubles, and a career-high 23 stolen bases thanks to the new rules. He also reached the career milestones of 300 home runs (a grand slam) and 2,000 hits (an RBI double).

The ’23 Dodgers won 100 games, winning the N.L. West by 16 games over the Arizona Diamondbacks. But, once the playoffs arrived, the Snakes swept the Dodgers in three games, with Freeman going 1 for 10 with no runs driven in.

The 2024 Dodgers, with multiple injuries to the starting rotation, “only” managed to win 98 games during the regular season, thanks mostly to the team’s new designated hitter, Shohei Ohtani, who put up eye-popping numbers (.310 BA, 54 HR, 130 RBI, 134 Runs, and 59 stolen bases).

Freeman regressed slightly (.282 BA, 22 HR, 89 RBI), but it was still a solid campaign. He missed eight games in late July/early August after his youngest son (Maximus) developed a “severe case of Guillain-Barré syndrome. A couple of weeks ago, Freeman’s wife, Chelsea, shared positive news that Maximus was getting better. On September 26th, Freeman sprained his right ankle trying to avoid a tag at first base, and it’s bothered him ever since.

Fortunately for Freeman, his teammates did not disappoint this October, beating the Padres in five games in the NLDS and the New York Mets in six games in the NLCS, despite Freeman only hitting .219 with one lone RBI. He didn’t play in Games 4 or 6 against the Mets, but was back in the lineup for Game 1 of the World Series, legging out a triple in the first inning before his historic blast in the bottom of the 10th.

And, of course, as we’ve seen, Freeman homered in the next three games en route to a total of 12 RBI overall in the Fall Classic, giving him a World Series MVP Award to go with his COVID-shortened regular season MVP from 2020.

The Hall of Fame Case for and Against Freddie Freeman

Let’s look now at the Cooperstown Cred for Freddie Freeman. Needless to say, just because he hit a historic home run does not mean that he’s automatically punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame. Just ask Bobby Thomson, Chris Chambliss, Kirk Gibson, Joe Carter, or David Freese.

Additionally, just because Freeman, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and their fans are on cloud nine following his World Series MVP performance does not guarantee a future plaque in Cooperstown.

Because he is only 35 years old, there are really two questions in play. First, has Freeman already done enough to merit induction into the Hall of Fame if his career were to come to an end unexpectedly? The second question is, if we try to project the future, will Freeman finish with a career worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown?

Starting with the first question, let’s start with this: as a first baseman who is a good fielder but not a superb one, Freeman’s Hall of Fame case will need to be made on the strength of what he’s done with the bat. His career statistics (.300 BA, 343 HR, 1,232 RBI, 2,267 hits) are strong but less than we usually see for a Hall of Fame first sacker. Using advanced statistics, his career WAR (60.7) and OPS+ (142) are strong but not good enough to make him any more than a borderline call for the Hall, based on recent voting trends.

There are 17 non Negro-Leagues Hall of Fame first basemen (defined as players who logged at least 40% of their career starts at first) who have debuted in the last 100 years:

• Only two (Rod Carew and Hank Greenberg) have fewer than Freeman’s 343 career home runs. Carew, of course, had other attributes (a .328 career BA with seven batting titles and 18 All-Star nods). As for Greenberg, he missed three seasons due to military service in World War II.
• Freeman has 1,232 career RBI. Only Carew has fewer.
• 11 of the 17 logged more than Freeman’s 2,267 hits. Six players had less (Willie Stargell, Willie McCovey, Harmon Killebrew, Johnny Mize, Gil Hodges, and Greenberg). Stargell, McCovey, Killebrew, and Mize were prolific sluggers (Mize also lost three years due to WWII). Hodges just entered the Hall two years ago as an Eras Committee pick.
• Freeman’s career batting average (.300) is a point in favor. Six of the 17 Hall of Famers hit over .300; the others were below the mark.
• Freeman has a career 60.7 WAR. That’s less than 10 of those Hall of Fame first basemen and higher than seven others (Killebrew, Stargell, Greenberg, Tony Perez, Orlando Cepeda, Fred McGriff, and Hodges).

So, by those numbers, Freeman is already a borderline pick but certainly not an obvious one, although the World Series MVP certainly helps. For the record, this is the list of players who have won an MVP Award in the N.L. or A.L. and also a World Series MVP Award:

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You might notice that all of the 12 players on this list are in the Hall of Fame except for Freeman and Pete Rose. Thanks to Jim Miloch for this tidbit.

Freeman, Goldschmidt, and Votto

Freddie Freeman is one of five first basemen who debuted in the 21st century and have already established enough career value to be considered Hall of Fame candidates. Two of them (Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera) are obvious choices. The others (Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto) are in the same ballpark as Freeman. So, let’s look at those three side-by-side, with the caveat that Votto’s career is over while Freeman’s and Goldschmidt’s are ongoing and that Goldy (37 years old) is two years older than Freddie.

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All three players look good but not great. All three could wind up in the Hall of Fame. Or it could be none of them.

Many writers in the sabermetric community feel that Votto deserves a plaque in Cooperstown. If so, it would be hard to argue that Freeman hasn’t already done enough in his regular season games (they have a nearly identical number of career plate appearances) to join him there.

All three men have won the N.L. MVP, but Freeman also has something that Votto and Goldschmidt don’t: two World Series rings and the signature grand slam in Game 1 last Friday. To me, that’s a tiebreaker; if you had to pick one and only one, I’d say Freddie is the easy call.

Projecting the future: the rest of Freddie Freeman’s career

Of course, Freddie Freeman’s career is not over yet. Still, in today’s big-money game, the end of a player’s career is often determined when their contract expires. Freeman has three years left on his; he’ll be 38 years old when his contract with the Dodgers ends. So let’s assume for now that he’s got three years left.

My crystal ball stopped working many years ago, but I’ll give it a go to make a guess about where Freeman’s numbers will be at the end of 2027. To help with the projections, I’ll use the ZIPS projections on Freeman’s FanGraphs page, which has projected his 2025 and ’26 stats with more science to it than I could ever offer:

• 2025: .289 BA, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 154 Hits, 3.3 WAR (FanGraphs projection)
• 2026: .281 BA, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 137 Hits, 2.5 WAR (FanGraphs projection)

I’ll go out on a limb and suggest a similar regression from 2026 to 2027:

• 2027: .273 BA, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 120 Hits, 1.7 WAR (Cooperstown Cred projection)

If these numbers are actually what were to happen, Freeman would wind up with these numbers:

• Freeman’s projected career (through 2027): .297 BA, 397 HR, 1,449 RBI, 2,678 Hits, 68.5 WAR

When you add his eight All-Star appearances, MVP Trophy, two World Series trophies, and the signature postseason grand slam in Game 1, Freeman would be an easy call for the Hall of Fame.

And, of course, his career could continue into 2028 if he continues to produce.

The bottom line: I’d say there is about an 80-to-90% chance that Freddie Freeman will be a Hall of Famer.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on X @cooperstowncred.

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