Future Hall of Fame Candidates: A.L. East

In the A.L. East, a division that’s featured some of the most famous players in baseball’s last 25 years, it’s unusual that the rosters of the 2018 editions do not contain a single player that is a certainty for the Hall of Fame. The same was true in 2017.

From 1995-2016, A.L. East rosters featured names like Ripken, Jeter, Rivera, A-Rod, Clemens, Cano, Pedro, Schilling, Manny, Ortiz, Mussina and Halladay. Marquee names remained after Big Papi retired following the ’16 season, but none that are slam dunks for Cooperstown. Still, a division that contains the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees is always going to have talented players and I would be stunned if several don’t eventually find their way to the Hall of Fame.

This is the fifth installment of a six-part series on the stars of today who have a chance to be the Cooperstown inductees of tomorrow.

Before we get started with the A.L. East, let’s go over the ground rules again. In order to be eligible for the Hall of Fame, a player must have service time in 10 different MLB seasons. I’ll comment on many of these players. In addition, for a handful current stars who have played between 6 and 9 seasons, I’ll take a look at their cases as well, recognizing that it’s still early.

Generally speaking, I won’t comment extensively on players with 5 years of service time or less. So, as great as he’s been, it’s too early to project a Hall of Fame career for Mookie Betts. Likewise, the Yankees’ “Baby Bombers” (Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge) sure look like Cooperstown caliber players but it’s just too early.

As I did with the previous entries, to allow people to make fun of me in the years to come, I’m going to throw out some unscientific odds at each player eventually getting a Hall of Fame plaque. With these odds, I’m going to make the assumption that none of the players profiled below will ever be suspended in the future for use of PEDs. These predictions are based on past and predicted future performance only.

In this piece we’ll make extensive references to the statistics WAR (Wins Above Replacement), OPS+ (ballpark adjusted on-base + slugging%) and ERA+ (ballpark adjusted ERA). For more on these advanced metrics, please visit the Glossary.

(cover photo: Newsday)

New York Yankees:

Besides Sanchez and Judge, the 2018 New York Yankees have a roster filled with Hall of Fame talent. Starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray and Luis Severino are all in their 20’s and have all shown #1 starter stuff in previous seasons. If any of them harnesses their ability for a six-to-eight year stretch, they could be Cooperstown worthy.

On the offensive side of ball, Jacoby Ellsbury represents a cautionary tale about why it’s hard to project Hall of Fame careers for young players. After his 2011 campaign with the Red Sox, Ellsbury looked like a superstar in the making. He hit .321 with 32 HR, 105 RBI, 212 hits, 119 runs scored and 39 stolen bases. That season proved to be an outlier and now, at 34, he’s a bench player despite being owed over $60 million on his contract.

There are, however, three players on the ’18 Bombers who have played long enough to warrant a Cooperstown look.

CC Sabathia (37 years old)

• Career: 237-146 (.619 WL%), 3.70 ERA, 117 ERA+, 59.8 WAR
• 6-time All-Star, Won 2007 Cy Young Award
• 5 times in Top 5 of Cy Young Award voting

At the end of 2012, his age 31 season, CC Sabathia had a 191-102 record with a 3.50 ERA which, due to pitching in the American League and during the end of the PED era, translated into a ERA+ of 125. His career WAR was 53.2 after 2012.

Through the age 31 seasons of every Hall of Fame pitcher, only 24 had a higher WAR by that point in their respective careers. 43 others had not yet progressed to that WAR number (including recent inductees Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Randy Johnson, not to mention luminaries like Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer Bob Gibson, Warren Spahn, and Nolan Ryan).

Big Games for the Big Man

CC also had established a big-game reputation. In 2008, after a trade from the Cleveland Indians to the Milwaukee Brewers, he put the team on his big back, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA in 17 starts, a run that included 7 complete games and 3 shutouts.

Despite the fact that he was about to become a free agent and had hundreds of millions of reasons to protect his left arm, CC took the hill on three days of rest in his final three starts, something unheard of in today’s game. All in all, the Brew Crew edged the New York Mets by one game to win the N.L. Wild Card spot, the franchise’s first post-season berth in 26 long years. This would not have been possible without the efforts of CC Sabathia.

Sabathia was rewarded with a mega-deal from the New York Yankees and a ring in the 2009 championship season; in the ’09 post-season, CC went 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA. Sabathia followed that up with three more quality years, winning 55 games with a 3.17 ERA from 2010-2012.

In his career up to that point, Sabathia had averaged 16 wins per season. If he had managed to duplicate that success from 2013-2017, not an unreasonable expectation given that he was pitching for the deep-pocketed New York Yankees, Sabathia would now have 271 career wins and would be on the doorstep of the Hall.

Cooperstown Train Derailed?

Unfortunately, because of a combination of injury, alcohol abuse and the natural aging process, CC had three average to awful years from 2013 to 2015. Fortunately for his future employment and Cooperstown chances, Sabathia had a renaissance campaign in 2017, going 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA (with a very good 122 ERA+). This was a follow-up to a decent 2016 when, despite a 9-12 record, CC posted a respectable 3.91 ERA (and a better than average 110 ERA+).

Sabathia, now listed at a full 300 pounds, has reinvented himself as a pitcher, just as it has been for many Hall of Fame pitchers when they enter their late 30’s.

It’s my view that Sabathia, in order to punch his ticket to Cooperstown, will need to build on his 2017 campaign with a few more respectable seasons. He doesn’t need to recapture the form that made him one of the top three pitchers in the game from 2006-2012. He just needs to build on his current numbers.

A significant percentage of all Hall of Famers got to Cooperstown by a combination of dominant peak years with other seasons in which they were merely average. In baseball, if you’re average, you’re still helping your team.

Hall of Fame odds — 65%

Giancarlo Stanton (28 years old)

• Career: 267 HR, 672 RBI, .268 BA, 146 OPS+, 35.2 WAR
• 4-time All-Star
• 2017 N.L. MVP (59 HR, 132 RBI, .281 BA, 165 OPS+, 7.6 WAR)

Giancarlo Stanton looked like a Hall of Fame slugger from the moment he debuted in the major leagues, at the age of 20, in June 2010. As a rookie with the Florida Marlins, he hit 22 home runs in just 396 plate appearances. Stanton, who at the time was known as “Mike,” followed that up with 34 HR and a 141 OPS+ in 150 games in 2011.

Now a star, in 2012 “Mike” decided to go by his given first name Giancarlo. For the record, his full name is Giancarlo Cruz-Michael Stanton and his mother calls him Cruz. Injuries impacted his ’12 and ’13 campaigns, limiting him to 123 and 116 games.

In 2014, Stanton elevated his game to MVP caliber. Before his season ended prematurely due to a pitch that hit him in the face, Stanton had logged 37 taters (which led the N.L.) while posting a 164 OPS+. The season was good enough to put him second to Clayton Kershaw in the MVP voting and for the Marlins to bestow upon him a 13-year, $325 million contract.

Two more injury-plagued campaigns made the contract look like a 325-ton albatross but Giancarlo had a near Ruthian 2017 season. He led the majors with 59 HR and 132 RBI while winning the N.L. MVP Award.

How Stanton Rates as a Home Run King?

With Yankee legend Derek Jeter taking an ownership position in Florida and the Marlins in full rebuilding mode, Stanton will now wear the pinstripes in the Bronx. The 6’6″ Stanton, along with his even taller teammate Aaron Judge, will represent one of the most intimidating power hitting duos in the history of the game.

It’s a near certainty that, by spending the next phase of his career in New York, Stanton will become an even bigger star than he already is. The odds are also good that he’ll be on display for the world to see in multiple post-seasons in the  upcoming years.

The question here is what type of path Stanton is on for eventual enshrinement into the Hall of Fame.

First of all, let’s look at his credentials as a home run slugger:

• His career At Bat/Home Run ratio (13.4) is 4th best all-time (minimum 3,000 PA), behind only Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds.
• His 59 home runs in 2017 would be tied for the 3rd best for a single season in a universe free of the PED-fueled efforts of McGwire, Bonds and Sammy Sosa.
• Despite averaging only 127 games per season since 2011 due to various injuries, Stanton’s 245 home runs in the last 7 seasons are 3rd best to Edwin Encarnacion (248) and Nelson Cruz (246). Encarnacion and Cruz each tallied a few more taters despite over 500 more plate apperances each.

Next, let’s take a look at the top 12 players all-time for their home run output through their age 27 seasons.

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As you can plainly see, there are a variety of career paths that can follow a young slugger who posts prodigious home run totals early in their careers. Will Stanton’s final career numbers look like Frank Robinson’s? Or Juan Gonzalez’s?

Sabermetric pioneer Bill James has a projection tool which he calls his “Favorite Toy” that projects the likelihood that a player will reach certain statistical milestones. In his 2018 Bill James Handbook, James estimates that Stanton has a 42% chance to reach 500 home runs, a 29% chance to reach 600, a 20% to reach 700 and a 16% to chance to break Bonds’ all-time career record of 762.

Hall of Fame odds — 45%

Does 45% seem low or high to you? Instinctively, coming off his monster 2017 campaign, it might seem low. Remember though, that injuries have plagued most of Giancarlo Stanton’s career. Also, the Yankees current roster plan will handicap his worthiness as an all-around player.

With an excellent defensive outfield of Judge, Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner, Stanton is going to get a lot of at bats as the team’s designated hitter. Whether this is his role for a couple of years or the rest of his career will color how he’s viewed and what his career WAR winds up being.

As a future Hall of Fame candidate, Stanton’s career will start with his home run total. James estimated he had a 42% chance of making it to 500 home runs. Considering that James’ estimate was made while Giancarlo was still a member of the Marlins, I think the move to the American League and to the DH position will boost those odds. 45% is still a high number for a 28-year old player to reach the highest honor in the game.

Aroldis Chapman (30 years old)

• Career: 204 Saves, 2.21 ERA, 183 ERA+, 1.009 WHIP, 14.85 SO/9
• 4-time All-Star
• Career 14.85 SO/9 IP is best in MLB history (minimum 400 IP)

Aroldis Chapman is one of a triumvirate of top closers in the game today that one can reasonably predict might have a Hall of Fame plaque in their future; the others are Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel. All three are entering their age 30 seasons and all have eye-popping statistics.

There was nobody in the history of the sport who had been able to consistently throw a baseball at 100 miles per hour until Chapman came along. According to his Fan Graphs page, Chapman has now done it for a remarkable four seasons in a row.

After posting ERA’s of 2.00, 1.63 and 1.55 from 2014-16, the lefty known as the Cuban Missile had a bit of a blip in 2017, posting a 3.22 ERA, not bad but not superb for a one-inning closer either.

Reprising a graphic from our look at the Cooperstown candidates from the N.L. West, take a look at how Chapman, Kimbrel and Jansen rank among top closers through their age 29 seasons.

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Hall of Fame odds — 15%

In the N.L. West piece, I rated Jansen’s odds at 30%. So why have I pegged Chapman’s chances 15 percentage points lower? There are two reasons. First, despite being a huge man, Jansen throws in the low 90’s and gets his outs with a devastating cutter. Just by watching their pitching motions, I’m inclined to think that Jansen has a much better chance of remaining injury-free in his 30’s.

The second reason is that Jansen has remarkable control. He’s walked just 19 batters over the last two seasons, spanning 137 innings! By comparison, Chapman walked 20 in 50.1 innings in 2017.

What Chapman, Jansen, and Kimbrel have achieved before their age 30 seasons is vastly superior to what Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman did or what future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera did. The odds of any of them duplicating that level of success over such a long period of time is small. In my opinion, the odds are lowest for Chapman.

Boston Red Sox:

As you would expect with a team that boasts a payroll of over $200 million, the Boston Red Sox are filled with established or emerging stars. Many of those top talents have yet to complete five major league seasons.

After four years, Mookie Betts has established himself as one of the best players in the game and, with a few more years like the last two, he’ll be in the Cooperstown conversation soon.

Newly signed free agent outfielder/DH J.D. Martinez earned a $110 million contract based on his performance of the last few years. Martinez is a seven-year MLB veteran but has only been a regular player for four of those seasons. If he comes close to replicating his 2017 performance (45 HR, 166 OPS+) in 2018, it will be worth looking at his future Hall of Fame chances.

In the meantime, the BoSox have several players worth discussing and two more that are the ultimate long shots but who should not be dismissed out of hand.

Craig Kimbel (29 years old)

• Career: 291 Saves, 1.80 ERA, 222 ERA+, 0.910 WHIP, 14.8 SO/9
• 6-time All-Star, won 2011 N.L. Rookie of the Year
• 5 times in the Top 10 of Cy Young Award voting
• Career: 222 ERA+ is the best in MLB history (minimum 400 IP)
• Career 14.77 SO/9 IP is 2nd best in MLB history (to Chapman) (minimum 400 IP)

Since we finished the Yankees discussion with Aroldis Chapman, we might as well start the Red Sox player comments with their ace stopper, Craig Kimbrel. After a couple of so-so campaigns (by his standards ) in 2015 (with San Diego) and 2016 (with Boston), Kimbrel re-established himself in 2017 as one of the elite of the elite. He saved 35 games while posting a 1.43 ERA (319 ERA+).

If you were to build a Hall of Fame for what players did in their 20’s, Kimbrel, who will turn 30 on May 28th, would be a lock.

Here are Craig Kimbrel’s ranks among all pitchers in all of MLB history before their age 30 season (minimum 400 IP):

• 291 Saves: tied for the most with Francisco Rodriguez
• 1.80 ERA: 5th best, behind 4 Hall of Famers from before 1918 (Ed Walsh, Addie Joss, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson)
• 222 ERA+: best ever
• .155 BAA (Batting Average Against): best ever
• 0.910 WHIP: (4th best, behind Walsh, Joss and Jansen)
• 14.77 SO/9 IP: 2nd best to Chapman

Incidentally, #2 and #3 on the ERA+ list for pitchers through their age 29 seasons are Chapman and Jansen, which speaks to how dominant this trio has been.

Mariano Rivera (652 saves, 2.21 ERA, 205 ERA+) is deservedly the gold standard among relief pitchers. He will be a nearly unanimous Hall of Fame selection when the writers vote late this year. Among all of the active relief pitchers in today’s game, Kimbrel is statistically the most likely to duplicate or approach Rivera’s career numbers.

That doesn’t mean that it is likely that Craig Kimbrel will finish his career with 652 saves or a 205 ERA+. It just means that he’s the furthest along to achieving that level of greatness. It is more likely that he will fall far short of that level of excellence.

Hall of Fame odds — 40%

Sustaining excellence as a closer for a decade is very rare. Kimbrel has done it for seven years. If he has three seasons that are even close to the excellence of his ’18 campaign, he’ll be over 400 saves by his 32nd birthday and his Cooperstown odds will be significantly higher.

Dustin Pedroia (34 years old)

• Career: 140 HR, 724 RBI, 1,802 Hits, .300 BA, 114 OPS+, 52.3 WAR
• 4-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 2007 A.L. Rookie of the Year, 2008 A.L. MVP

If you were to ask a casual fan to fill a Hall of Fame with active players and you had room for two second basemen, Dustin Pedroia would be an easy choice. He’s a gritty player, a great fielder who gets his uniform dirty diving for balls, he’s a former MVP and a two-time World Series champion.

Early in his career, the “Laser Show” was an elite hitter for a middle infielder. If you exclude his injury-shortened 2010 campaign, Pedroia averaged .306 with 14 HR, 74 RBI, 186 hits, 99 runs, 18 stolen bases and a WAR of 6.0 per season. Pedey averaged over 150 games per campaign during those six seasons.

In recent years, Pedroia has been up and down. In 2016, he had a superb season: .318 BA, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 201 hits, 117 OPS+, 5.8 WAR. In 2017, a campaign plagued by a bad left knee, he was limited to 105 games; he drove in 62 runs with a 101 OPS+.

It’s hard to say what the future in baseball holds for Dustin Pedroia. He won’t make his 2018 debut until late May because of surgery on his knee. Generally speaking, second basemen age at a faster rate than any position on the field but catcher.

Could it be any surprise that Pedey has a lot of aches and pains on his body? The guy plays all out, all the time. I’ve never in my life seen a player dive for more balls. Does he have another 154-game, 5.8 WAR season in him? If he can replicate, even once, the results of his 2016 campaign, he will push himself to the precipice of the Hall of Fame. If can replicate it twice, he’ll make it.

With 4 years and $56 million left on his contract and the fact that he is a Boston icon, Pedroia will get every chance to keep going, to essentially pad his career numbers to get into the Hall. He and the team would be better off, though, if he gets a lot of time off.

He’s less than 700 hits from 2,500. Only 9 second basemen in MLB history have that many and they all have plaques in Cooperstown. If Pedroia hits any kind of benchmark career number like that, he’s going to get the benefit of the doubt from the voters.

He may wind up with a WAR that is less than two or three of his second base contemporaries (Chase Utley, Robinson Cano and maybe Ian Kinsler) but he’s going to get a lot of “intangible” points for his gritty play, his MVP, his four Gold Gloves and two World Series rings.

I think he makes it.

Hall of Fame odds — 65%

I’ve unscientifically put Pedroia at “only” 65% because he’s not there yet and it’s entirely possible that he will never again perform at a level close to what one would expect from an All-Star and Hall of Famer. He strikes me as the type of player who will play as long as the Sox let him. To use a cliche, they’ll have to tear the uniform off his body. Whether that helps or hurts his candidacy remains to be seen.

Chris Sale (29 years old)

• Career: 91-58 (.611 WL%), 2.98 ERA, 139 ERA+, 36.3 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• Six consecutive years in Top 6 of A.L. Cy Young Award voting
• Career: 5.12 SO/BB ratio is best in MLB history (minimum 1,000 IP)

Chris Sale, the slender 6’6″ lefty known as “Stickman,” will turn 29 years old tomorrow. Despite his youth, he has accomplished the following:

• His 2.98 career ERA and 139 ERA+ are second best to Clayton Kershaw for any active hurlers with over 1,000 innings pitched.
• His career rate of 10.55 strikeouts per 9 innings is the best among active pitchers (min 1,000 IP).
• His career WHIP of 1.050 is second best to Kershaw (min 1,000 IP)
• His career WAR is 9th best among all active pitchers despite ranking just 34th in innings pitched.

Of course, his career rate of 5.12 strikeouts per every walk is the best among all active pitchers because it’s also the best among all pitchers in the history of the game (again with that minimum of 1,000 IP).

If you take a look at all of the key pitching statistics for the past six seasons, it’s pretty clear to me that Sale has been the third best pitcher in the game for those six seasons. He’s third best only to Kershaw and Max Scherzer, who own 3 Cy Young Awards each.

Being the 3rd best pitcher in the game for six seasons is a solid building block for a Hall of Fame career but hardly a guarantee.

Still, statistically speaking, Sale is ahead of the pace of dozens of Hall of Fame starting pitchers at this point in their respective careers. By WAR (through his age 28 season), his 36.3 number is ahead of Spahn, Carlton, Koufax, Ford, Glavine and Randy Johnson, just to highlight some notable southpaws.

Sale’s ERA+ of 139 is better (at this age) than all but 11 Hall of Fame hurlers, ever. And we already know that he has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio (so far) in history.

Hall of Fame odds — 55%

In my piece about the N.L. West, I pegged Madison Bumgarner’s Hall of Fame odds at 70%. The two pitchers are just four months apart in age and Sale’s record is superior (139 ERA+ to Bumgarner’s 123). So why do I have Mad-Bum’s Cooperstown odds higher?

Two reasons. The first should be obvious. Bumgarner is an October legend due to his post-season record and three World Series rings. He’s already got the “Fame” in Hall of Fame.

The second reason is that, although both pitchers are 6’6″, Bumgarner is 242 pounds, according to his Baseball Reference profile; Sale is 180, hence his nicknames “Stickman” and “Condor.”

If there’s one fault to be found in Sale’s outstanding career it’s that he’s had a tendency to wear down later in the year. In his career, Sale’s record from March to July is 66-29 with a 2.70 ERA. In August and September, it’s 25-29 with a 3.49 ERA (with September being the worst month).

Sale’s long-term durability is my biggest concern for his long-term prognosis. Still, he’s been the third best pitcher in the sport for six years and thus I think it’s fair to at least give him better than a 50% chance at eventually making it to the Hall.

David Price (32 years old)

• Career: 127-68 (.651 WL%), 3.22 ERA, 124 ERA+, 33.8 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, won 2012 A.L. Cy Young Award
• 3 times in Top 2 of Cy Young Award voting

I do not know what to make of David Price. He’s had three Hall of Fame caliber seasons (2010, 2012, 2015). He was the A.L. Cy Young Award winner in ’12 (20-5, 2.56 ERA, 150 ERA+). He was also the runner up in ’10 (19-6, 2.27 ERA, 144 ERA+) and ’15 (18-5, 2.45 ERA, 164 ERA+).

Luckily for the 6’5″ lefty, one of those seasons was in his free agent walk year and he parlayed his 2015 campaign into a 7-year, $217 million contract with the Red Sox.

In Boston, he has had a solid but unspectacular 2016 season (17-9, 3.99 ERA, 112 ERA+ in a ML-leading 230 IP) and an injury-shortened 2017 (74.2 IP).

It’s hard to believe but Price will turn 33 years old this summer. If he’s going to be a legitimate candidate for the Hall in the future, he’s going to need to author three more Cooperstown-caliber seasons and pitch well late into his 30’s.

Right now he doesn’t look like a Hall of Famer in the making.

Hall of Fame odds — 20%

PS — it doesn’t help that Price has a miserable post-season reputation. The bad rep is deserved: he’s 2-8 with a 5.03 ERA in 17 October appearances. If he becomes a more viable Cooperstown candidate in the next few years by delivering high quality campaigns in Boston, it will help him immensely if he has some big post-season games.

Rick Porcello (29 years old)

• Career: 118-99 (.544 WL%), 4.25 ERA, 101 ERA+, 15.6 WAR
• Won 2016 A.L. Cy Young Award (22-4, 3.15 ERA, 142 ERA+)

Don’t laugh. I’ve put Rick Porcello on this list for the simple reason that he’s won 118 games through his age 28 season. He became a full-time starting pitcher at the age of 20 so he got a head start on his career.

The 2018 Bill James Handbook estimates Porcello as having a 2% chance of reaching 300 wins in his career. Therefore, he has a 2% chance of becoming a Hall of Famer.

Hall of Fame odds — 2%

Hanley Ramirez (34 years old)

• Career: 263 HR, 880 RBI, 1,780 Hits, 277 SB, .291 BA, 125 OPS+, 37.9 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 2006 N.L. Rookie of the Year

Hanley Ramirez???!!!! On a list of potential future Hall of Fame candidates? It seems absurd now considering that he has come off two miserable campaigns in the last three years.

What about three years ago, before his first season in Boston? Remember who Han-Ram was when he signed his free agent contract with the Red Sox. He was a career National League player who had logged nearly 90% of his career games as a shortstop.

At the time, Ramirez had a career WAR of 36.6; he had 191 HR and 261 SB; he was a career .300 hitter with a 132 OPS+. It’s hard to envision this player now but Hanley stole 50 bases twice (his first two MLB seasons).

Based on the numbers, Ramirez was on a Hall of Fame track for a shortstop (see the Troy Tulowitzki comment below for more on this).

Of course, Han-Ram was not a quality defensive shortstop and the Red Sox signed him to be a left fielder. That experiment was a complete disaster.

Now he’s either a first baseman or a designated hitter and he will have to fight for playing time with Mitch Moreland.

Hall of Fame odds — 10%

In 2016, his only healthy season in three years in Boston, Hanley hit 30 home runs with 111 RBI and a 126 OPS+. Let’s suppose that he stays healthy and has a Nelson Cruz-type career in his mid-to-late 30’s.

If Hanley were to play 140 games per year for the next five years, he would still have (on his career log) more than 50% of his games played at shortstop. If he then had a Cooperstown resume with over 400 home runs, over 300 steals, a near .300 average and career OPS+ of around 125, that’s a strong case.

Is that a likely outcome to his career? No.

Is there a 10% chance (1 in 10) that his career takes this path? Of course there is. His two miserable seasons in 2015 and 2017 may erase our memories of the player he used to be but the record is still there.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have four veteran players in their 30’s who have had excellent major league careers. One of them looked like a Hall of Famer in the making in his 20’s but has been derailed by injuries.

Another has been one of the best players in the game for the past several seasons but didn’t become a full time player until he was 27 years old. A third veteran player has had a career quite similar to a player on another team who is considered a likely future inductee.

There’s also a new member of the Jays, 37-year old outfielder Curtis Granderson. The veteran outfielder has posted a 46.8 WAR with 319 home runs in 14 MLB seasons. In the twilight of his career, Granderson is not going to be a Hall of Famer but worth a mention for having had a terrific career.

Troy Tulowitzki (33 years old)

• Career: 224 HR, 779 RBI, .290 BA, 118 OPS+, 44.1 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 3 times in Top 10 of MVP voting

Troy Tulowitzki became an instant star as a rookie in 2007 as a member of the  Colorado Rockies. The 22-year old slugging shortstop hit .291 with 24 HR and 99 RBI while scoring 104 runs with a 109 OPS+.

Tulowitzki played in 155 games in his rookie campaign, which remains the most in his career. In the 10 seasons since then, Tulo has suffered through an assortment of injuries that have limited him to an average of 111 games per year. Only 3 times in his entire career has he surpassed 131 games played.

The injuries were enormously frustrating to Tulo, the Rockies and their fans. Despite the time missed, he was a 5-time All-Star and earned MVP votes six times in his 10 years in Colorado.

The team, however, was a cellar-dweller from 2011 to 2015 so Tulowitzki was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays just before the trading deadline in ’15.

In his 10 years with the Rockies, Tulowitzki hit .299; his OPS+ (adjusted for the hitting benefits of Coors Field) was still 118, an excellent number for a good-fielding shortstop.

Best Shortstop in Baseball for 2006-2014?

The graphic below is going to blow your mind if you’re a casual fan. It’s a 8-year comparison (from 2007-2014) between Tulowitzki and another N.L. shortstop during those years. I’ll explain why I limited this to 2007-2014 after you see the stats.

RField is the “Runs above or below average due to fielding,” to help calculate the defensive component of WAR.

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Yes, sports fans, look at the record. Offensively, Hanley Ramirez was clearly the best offensive shortstop in the game for a 8-year period. The two “slash” lines are similar but Tulo had the advantage of playing in Denver. Of course, WAR shows Tulo as the better overall shortstop because of vastly superior defensive play.

I cut off these statistics after 2014 because, in 2015, Tulo was traded to Toronto and Hanley was no longer a N.L. shortstop but instead a hulking, ineffective left fielder in Boston. Incidentally, the graphic leaves out Hanley’s terrific Rookie of the Year season (2006), in which he stole 51 bases, scored 119 runs and posted a 116 OPS+.

Anyway, Tulo is still a shortstop and thus a more viable long-range candidate for Cooperstown than Ramirez. However, since the July 2015 trade, the Blue Jays have not gotten the Colorado version of Tulowitzki. In 41 games after the trade, Tulo hit just .239 with a below-average OPS+ of 89.

In 2016, his first full year in Canada, Tulowitzki was solid but not an All-Star caliber player. In 131 games, he hit .254 with 24 HR, 79 RBI, a 102 OPS+ and a 3.4 WAR. 2017 was a lost season; he played in only 66 games, hitting only 7 taters with a miserable 77 OPS+.

The Coors Effect

It’s perhaps unfair to show this, because he was a legitimately good hitter in any ballpark during his prime, but here are the numbers posted by Troy Tulowitzki at Coors Field compared to all other MLB parks.

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OK, so Tulowitzki’s OPS is 160 points higher in the Mile High City than anywhere else. Still, .789 is a decent number for a shortstop. If that’s the hitter that Tulo will be going forward, he can put his Hall of Fame train back on the track. But that’s not the hitter he’s been in Toronto. In 238 games with the Jays, his OPS is .727 (adjusted OPS+ below average at 93).

Tulo will start the 2018 season on the disabled list, again, for the 10th time in his career, due to ankle woes. The Jays will give him every chance to rediscover his form; he’s owed $58 million on his contract through 2020.

Hall of Fame odds — 15%

Troy Tulowitzki is still only 33 years old and already has a 44.1 WAR. He was the best shortstop in the game for a decade. These are good Hall of Fame building blocks If he’s able to get past his current injury and play several years without further mishap, he could get back on a Cooperstown path.

Having said that, it really looks bad for him right now. Tulo’s Cooperstown odds are higher than Hanley’s only because he’s still a shortstop while Ramirez is a 1B/DH.

Josh Donaldson (32 years old)

• Career: 174 HR, 528 RBI, .277 BA, 138 OPS+, 37.2 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, won 2015 A.L. MVP Award
• 4 times in Top 8 of MVP voting

Josh Donaldson didn’t become a full-time major leaguer until August 2012, when he was 26 years old. Since then, the Jays’ 3rd baseman been one of the finest players in all of baseball. Normally, it would be a little early to start talking Cooperstown for a player with only five full MLB seasons under his belt but, because of his age and how superb he’s been, we’ll take a short look.

In the last five seasons (2013-2017), Donaldson is ranked by Wins Above Replacement as being the 2nd best player in baseball. Not just the second best position player, the second best player, period. Below is the list of the top 10 leaders in WAR in the last five seasons.

I don’t usually do this but I’m adding the hitting component of WAR for the pitchers on this list since we’re compiling a list for both position players and hurlers:

WP Table Builder

Donaldson is second on this list and by quite a bit. His WAR is so high because of superior hitting, superb defense and sold base-running. The only hiccup occurred last year when a strained right calf caused him to miss 38 team games in April and May. Prior to that, the former MVP had played in no fewer than 155 games per season since becoming a full-time player.

Can Donaldson Make the Hall of Fame with Such a Late Career Start?

A late career start is a serious handicap for a Hall of Fame aspirant because it makes it that much more difficult to achieve or approach the traditional career milestones that usually exist on a Cooperstown resume.

What will the “Bringer of Rain” need to do to overcome the handicap of his late start? Well, duh, if he duplicates his 2013-2017 campaigns from 2018-22, he’ll make the Hall of Fame. But that is a tall order to be sure and not entirely necessary.

Donaldson only logged 328 plate appearances before his 27th birthday. There are very few examples of Hall of Fame position players who played less in their early to mid 20’s, but those examples do exist:

• Brooklyn Dodgers legends Jackie Robinson and Roy Campanella debuted in their mid to late 20’s because of the color barrier. Both achieved enough in their shortened careers to earn easy enshrinement into Cooperstown.
• Cleveland Indians outfielder Earl Averill didn’t begin his MLB career until his age 27 season
• Sam Rice, a longtime outfielder for the Washington Senators, didn’t become a full-time player until he was 27.
• New York Yankees outfielder Earle Combs was a rookie in 1925, his age 26 season.
• Bill Terry, first baseman for the San Francisco Giants in the ’20’s and ’30’s, had his first full season as a starter at the age of 26.

OK, now, it should be noted that Averill, Rice and Combs were Veterans’ Committee selections to the Hall and probably wouldn’t make it under today’s elevated standards.

More Recent Examples

A more promising example for Donaldson to follow is the one of still-active Ichiro Suzuki, who didn’t begin his MLB career until he was 27 years old because he was playing in Japan.

Another example to follow comes from another active player, Adrian Beltre. The third sacker signed a free agent contract with the Texas Rangers after his age 31 season. In the seven seasons since, Beltre has posted a 132 OPS+ with 184 home runs and a WAR of 41.1.

Because he started his career at the age of 19, Beltre has become a slam-dunk Hall of Famer, with 3,048 hits, 462 home runs and a 93.5 WAR. Beltre is an all-time great defensive player but Donaldson is no slouch. Either way, if Donaldson is able to duplicate Beltre’s offense from his age 32 to age 38 seasons, he’ll have a great Hall of Fame case.

Hall of Fame odds — 40%

Donaldson has performed at a 7-Win (Above Replacement) level for five years in a row. If he can perform at just two-thirds of that level of production for the next five years, he’ll have a WAR of 60 at the age of 36 and have a great shot at the Hall. That’s still a lot to ask for a player to accomplish starting at the age of 32, especially playing at the hot corner on artificial turf.

Just because Adrian Beltre performed at such a superior level after his 32nd birthday doesn’t mean that Donaldson will do it. Beltre’s WAR of 41.1 from his age 32 season and beyond is the best ever for a third baseman.

If, in 2018, the Bringer of Rain brings Blue Jays fans another season with a 7.0 WAR or higher, you can raise these odds significantly.

Russell Martin (35 years old)

• Career: 175 HR, 726 RBI, .253 BA, 102 OPS+, 35.8 WAR
• 4-time All-Star, won 2007 N.L. Gold Glove

Admit it. If we played a game and asked a group of a 100 baseball writers for a snap call, “future Hall of Famer or not” and I said “Russell Martin,” we might get 100 “no” votes. If we threw out the name “Yadier Molina” we would get a lot of “yes” answers.

So what’s the difference between the two catchers, who are just seven months apart in age. Take a look at some numbers:

RField is the “Runs above or below average due to fielding,” to help calculate the defensive component of WAR.

WP Table Builder

Certainly Molina has had the better career, especially defensively. Yadi has eight Gold Gloves; Russell has one. Yadi has two rings; Russell has none.

But as offensive players, during the regular season? There’s not much to choose from here but I would argue that Martin’s record is superior.

Still, defensive play, especially for a catcher, is a critical part of the game and Molina was one of the best for a long time. Throw in two World Series rings for Yadi (two post-seasons in which he did have a significant role offensively) and you have the difference between a likely Hall of Famer and a likely one-ballot and done player.

If you’re curious about the case for Molina, click on the N.L. Central piece here.

Hall of Fame odds (for Martin) — 5%

The 5% (as opposed to 0%) is based on the possibility that Martin rediscovers the form that he displayed from 2013-15 and sustains it for several years.

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles have three players that have done enough in their careers thus far to merit a discussion about their future Hall of Fame prospects. Unfortunately for Orioles fans, two of them will be free agents at the end of the 2018 season.

Manny Machado (25 years old)

• Career: 138 HR, 406 RBI, .279 BA, 116 OPS+, 28.0 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 3 times in Top 10 of MVP voting

Manuel Arturo Machado, from the moment he stepped onto a Major League diamond shortly after his 20th birthday in 2012, had the vibe of a future Hall of Famer. In his second game with the Baltimore Orioles, Machado hit two home runs, driving in four runs.

Machado was drafted as a shortstop (as the 3rd overall pick in 2010) and played that position in the minor leagues but he’s almost exclusively played third base in the majors.

When he came to the bigs, the Orioles already had a full-time shortstop, J.J. Hardy, who won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 2012-14.

It’s really a bit early to start forecasting Machado’s Cooperstown prospects but I’ll take a brief stab since it’s his free agent walk year.

Besides his enormous talent, he’s got the huge advantage of having begun his career at such a young age. Among all third basemen in MLB history, only Eddie Mathews had a WAR higher through his age 24 season than the 28.0 that Machado has had through his.

For the record, Machado will always have an edge in the Baseball Reference leader boards that are based on age. The reason is that the age listed on each player’s statistics page is based on their age at midnight on June 30th of the year in question. Manny was born on July 6, 1992. The significance of this is that, as an example, he played 79 games in 2017 as a 24-year old and 77 games as a 25-year old. However, every page will list him as a 24-year old in 2017 and we call it his “age 24 season.”

So, fans of the Miami-born Machado (Mr. Miami) will be happy to know that if he had been born a week earlier and had just completed his age 25 season, his 28.0 WAR would still be the second highest to Mathews (tied with Dick Allen).

Hall of Fame odds — 50%

Machado has only played five full seasons. Three of them (2013, 2015, 2016) were of Hall of Fame quality, the other two (2014, 2017) were not. It’s always a concern when one of the “not” seasons is the most recent.

The Baby Face Assassin will be one of the most interesting players to follow in 2017. He’s moving to shortstop. Normally, 6’3″ players move from shortstop to third base, not the other way around. This is something Machado wants to do and, if he can field that position as brilliantly as he has fielded at the hot corner, it will only enhance his value.

I’ve got him at 50% because it’s too early to have him higher and he’s already accomplished too much to put him lower.

Adam Jones (32 years old)

• Career: 251 HR, 815 RBI, .278 BA, 108 OPS+, 32.2 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award winner

Adam Jones has been a great player for the Baltimore Orioles for the last ten years even if the advanced numbers of sabermetrics say that he’s just been really good.

In the last 8 of those 10 years Jones has averaged 152 games played per season. If there’s any fan base than can appreciate a player showing up to work and taking the field, it’s the Orioles’ fan base.

Jones is not a big fan of sabermetrics and they are not his biggest fans either. Jones has won four Gold Gloves. He is the majors’ active leader among center fielders with 93 assists but the defensive metrics found on Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs list him as a below-average fielder.

In the 2012 edition of the Baseball Fielding Bible, the authors (John Dewan and Ben Jedlovec) described the bubble-gum blowing Jones as a “bundle of defensive extremes.” The defensive write-up in the book noted his spectacular defensive plays and runners gunned down but also noted his penchant for mishandling balls that land for hits and that he often takes bad routes on fly balls.

I can say this about Jones and statistics. As a fantasy baseball player in a league that counts on-base% instead of batting average, I can say that Jones’ inability to take a walk is noticeable.

Like Machado, Jones will be a free agent at the end of the year. He’s publicly commented that he wants to win a ring. Whether he remains with Baltimore or joins a powerhouse team might have a significant impact on his Cooperstown prospects.

Hall of Fame odds — 20%

In the 2018 Bill James Handbook, the pioneer of the sabermetrics to which Jones has such ambivalence gives him a 17% chance to reach 3,000 career hits. Jones has been a very good player and a durable player for a long time so those odds sound right.

In baseball, a player who is better than average and durable is useful for any team. That’s what Jones has been. He’s not likely to be a Hall of Famer in the future but it’s not outside the realm of possibility.

Chris Davis (31 years old)

• Career: 267 HR, 694 RBI, .246 BA, 118 OPS+, 17.9 WAR
• All-Star, 3rd in A.L. MVP voting in 2013 (53 HR, 138 RBI, 168 OPS+, 6.5 WAR)

I debated whether to profile Chris Davis in this piece. There’s nothing about him that says “Hall of Fame” to me despite his prodigious home run power.

Since his breakout year in 2013, Davis has hit .225 with a 114 OPS+, a decent number but not great for a power-hitting first baseman.

Davis has just two seasons with 100 RBI and, despite the long-ball profile, has just three seasons with over 30 HR and only three seasons slugging above .500.

However, Bill James, through his Favorite Toy, estimates that the left-handed slugger (nicknamed “Crush”) has a 29% chance of reaching 500 home runs.

If, in fact, Davis crushes 500 long balls in his career, he’ll probably be the first player not linked to PEDs who clears that barrier and still doesn’t get into the Hall of Fame.

The #2 player on Davis’ “Similarity Score” list through their age 31 seasons is Dave Kingman, the one-dimensional slugger from the ’70’s and ’80’s. King Kong, my favorite player as a 10-year old kid, hit 442 HR in his career; he earned a whopping 3 Hall of Fame votes in 1992 (0.7%).

In today’s homer-happy launch angle game, 500 has become the new 400.

Hall of Fame odds — 5%

5% in case Davis starts hitting .250 per year, stops striking out 200 times per year, and clears 600 taters (or, maybe, 550). He’s owed $115 million over the next five years so the Orioles will almost certainly give him the chance to do that.

Tampa Bay Rays

With the trade of Evan Longoria to the San Francisco Giants this off-season, the Tampa Bay Rays do not have any obvious future candidates for the Hall of Fame. Defensive whiz Kevin Kiermaier is building a WAR chest of defensive metrics but he’s only played four full seasons so it’s way to early to start talking Cooperstown.

So that’s it for the AL. East. Thanks for reading.

Chris Bodig

Please follow me on Twitter @cooperstowncred