Future Hall of Fame Candidates: N.L. Central

Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto headlines the list of players in the National League West who are on track to have a chance to make it into baseball’s Hall of Fame. As it was with the A.L. Central, the presence of multiple teams in full rebuild limits the number of potential future Cooperstown inductees. All but two of the N.L. Central players profiled are on the Chicago Cub or St. Louis Cardinals.

This is the fourth installment of a six-part series on the stars of today who have a chance to be the Cooperstown inductees of tomorrow. The links to the other division rundowns published so far are right below:

• N.L. West (featuring Kershaw, Utley, Goldschmidt, Greinke, Bumgarner, Posey, Longoria and McCutchen)
• A.L. West (featuring Pujols, Beltre, Trout, Cano, Ichiro, Verlander and Altuve)
• A.L. Central (featuring Cabrera, Mauer, Kluber and Encarnacion)

Before we get started with the stars N.L. Central, let’s go over the ground rules again. In order to be eligible for the Hall of Fame, a player must have service time in 10 different MLB seasons. I’ll comment on many of these players. In addition, for a handful current stars who have played between 6 and 9 seasons, I’ll take a look at their cases as well, recognizing that it’s still early.

As I did with the first three pieces, to allow people to mock me in the years to come, I’m going to throw out some unscientific odds for each player eventually getting a Hall of Fame plaque. With these odds, I’m going to make the assumption that none of the players profiled below will ever be suspended in the future for use of PEDs. These predictions are based on past and predicted future performance only.

In this piece we’ll make extensive references to the statistics WAR (Wins Above Replacement), OPS+ (ballpark adjusted on-base + slugging%) and ERA+ (ballpark adjusted ERA). For more on these advanced metrics, please visit the Glossary. 

(Cover Photo: USA Today/Aaron Doster)

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds are one of the two teams in the N.L. Central that are in full rebuilding mode. They have one truly great player, first baseman Joey Votto. Other than Votto, the Reds don’t have a single player on their 40-man roster with a career WAR of 10 or more. Infielder Cliff Pennington, a non-roster invitee, has a 11.1 WAR in 10 MLB seasons.

Joey Votto (34 years old)

• Career: 257 HR, 830 RBI, .313 BA, .428 OBP, .541 SLG, 158 OPS+, 55.3 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 2011 Gold Glove Award winner
• Won 2010 N.L. MVP (37 HR, 113 RBI, .324 BA, .424 OBP, .600 SLG, 171 OPS+)
• 6 times in Top 10 of N.L. MVP Voting

If there is one player in the N.L. Central who is very likely to get into the Hall of Fame, it’s Joey Votto. He’s not in the Kershaw/Beltre/Pujols/Cabrera/Ichiro class of “retire tomorrow, get into the Hall of Fame in 5 years” category, but he’s getting close.

Dubbed the “Prince of Process” by MLB Network’s Brian Kenny, Joey Votto is the on-base king of today’s game and one of the best that’s every played. His .428 OBP is tied for the 8th highest in the history of baseball for players who have at least 5,000 plate appearances.

The seven players with a higher career OBP? Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Billy Hamilton (the 19th century version, not Votto’s speedster teammate), Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, Rogers Hornsby and Ty Cobb. The two players he’s tied with at .428 are Jimmie Foxx and Tris Speaker.

This is not just a list of Hall of Famers. It’s a list of top shelf Hall of Famers, the creme de la creme.

The RBI Issue

The knock against Votto is that he takes a walk when an RBI is available. Votto-matic, despite averaging 30 home runs per 162 games played, has only surpassed 100 RBI three times in his 11-year career.

Votto’s career OBP with runners in scoring position (RISP) is .489. With the bases empty it’s .404. It takes a strange or perverse logic to conclude that a higher OBP with runners on 2nd and 3rd is a bad thing.

The dude has reached base in nearly half of his times at bat with runners in scoring position. This is a horrible thing because he doesn’t have enough strikeouts while swinging at bad pitches in the effort to get a RBI?

It’s a fact (thanks to the Play Index from Baseball Reference) that Votto’s .489 OBP with RISP is the 3rd best in history for players with at least 1,000 PA in that situation. He’s behind only Bonds and Williams in this split. It seems pretty silly to me that there’s a debate about whether that’s a positive or negative.

Breaking down Votto’s .489 OBP with RISP

So, follow me here…

— There are 138 players since 1908 with at least 1,000 PA with RISP and an OBP of .400 or more in that situation.

— Votto’s 550 RBI in 1,528 PA translates to one RBI per 2.8 plate appearances with RISP.

— One RBI per 2.8 PA puts Votto in 75th place (out of those 138 players). With that ratio, he’s just behind recently inducted Jim Thome and Chipper Jones. He’s ahead of Bonds, Edgar Martinez, and Hall of Famers Frank Robinson, George Brett, Harmon Killebrew, Carl Yastrzemski, Mike Schmidt, and Eddie Mathews. These are all “RBI guys.”

So, it seems to me that Votto is doing quite well with RISP. Maybe he’s in the middle of the pack in the RBI department but he’s third in OBP, which means he’s drawing a lot of walks to create more problems for the opposing pitchers. In the meantime, he’s still driving in his fair share of runs and doing so at a better rate than multiple Hall of Famers.

Maybe Votto’s RBI problem is that, playing his career on a team that’s been mostly in the 2nd tier of the N.L. Central, he hasn’t had enough situations in which a RBI is available. In fact, of the 138 players with a .400 OBP with RISP, Votto has had just the 105th most plate appearances per game in which he enjoyed a RISP situation.

Here’s a number that should point to how Votto is viewed by opposing teams: of those 138 players with a .400+ OBP with RISP, Votto’s rate of intentional walks is the 7th highest, behind Bonds, Albert Pujols, Vladimir Guerrero, Willie McCovey, Williams and Stan Musial.

There are two conclusions that can be drawn from JoVo’s high IBB rate with runners in scoring position:

• Teams would rather put him on base rather than have him work 10-to-12 pitches and draw a walk anyway.
• The overall quality of the batters hitting behind him has been relatively poor.

Votto’s Hall of Fame Prognosis

Anyway, Votto’s career statistics do not yet put him in Cooperstown but he’s got plenty of time to pad his numbers. At the age of 34, the Toronto native still has six years and at least $157 million left on his contract so it’s not like he’s in danger of losing his job.

Right now, his career OPS+ of 158 is better than all but 11 players in history with at least 6,000 PA. The players ahead of him are all in the Hall of Fame or linked to PEDs (Bonds, Mark McGwire).

Unless his production falls off a cliff (always possible, injuries happen, age gets in the way), Votto is on a clear track for the Hall of Fame. If he has two more seasons at the same level as his 2017 campaign, Votto-matic will be viewed as an automatic selection for Cooperstown.

Hall of Fame odds — 90%

St. Louis Cardinals

As it’s been for decades, the St. Louis Cardinals are blessed with many great players. Still just 26, Carlos Martinez may emerge this year as a Hall of Famer in the making. Newly acquired left fielder Marcell Ozuna (age 27) had a breakout season in 2017 with the Florida Marlins. Center fielder Tommy Pham did the same but he’s already 30 years old.

The versatile Matt Carpenter was also a bit of a late bloomer (he was 27 during his first full-time campaign as a starter). Carp had great value as a multi-positional player. In 2017, however, he started most of his games at 1st base, which cuts dramatically into his value.

That leaves us with…

Yadier Molina (35 years old)

• Career: 126 HR, 785 RBI, 1,730 Hits, .284 BA, 98 OPS+, 37.1 WAR
• 8-time All-Star, 8-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Twice in Top 4 of N.L. MVP voting
• 2006 post-season: .358 BA, .971 OPS (won World Series)
• 2011 World Series: .333 BA, .830 OPS, 9 RBI (won World Series)
• 2nd best all-time in “Total Zone Runs” for Catchers (per Baseball Reference)
• Career: 41% caught stealing (best among all active catchers)

It’s pretty obvious to me that Yadier Molina is going to be one heck of a controversial Hall of Fame candidate when his time comes. When watching games, I’ve heard many announcers refer to Molina as a “future Hall of Famer.”

Moina’s Hall of Fame tag comes from his brilliant work defensively (recognized by his eight Gold Gloves). Still, I think a big factor is also that Yadi also performed at a high level offensively in the two World Series titles that the Redbirds have won in the last 12 years.

I didn’t remember this until going to his Baseball Reference page: in the 2006 regular season, Molina hit .216 with a .274 OBP and a woefully low 53 OPS+ (third lowest in MLB for players with at least 450 PA). What I do painfully remember, as a fan of the New York Mets, is the two-run home run that Molina hit to break a 1-1 tie in the 9th inning of Game 7 of the ’06 NLCS.

For most of his career, Molina has not been a major asset offensively. This is partially disguised by a three-year run (2011-2013) where he performed at a true Hall of Fame level for a catcher. Take a look at the offensive numbers in four different 3-to-4 year stretches in his career.

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It’s pretty clear that it was the 2011-13 stretch that put Molina on the Hall of Fame radar. He was 4th in the N.L. MVP voting in 2012, 3rd in 2013. Since then he’s been a solid performer (three times an All-Star) but not spectacular.

So, Yadier Molina, Hall of Famer? The case rests on his superior (and deserved) defensive reputation and his role in helping the Cards win two World Series rings. Is that enough? His offensive profile is currently weak and, given his age, not likely to improve significantly.

In baseball history, there are 121 players who have at least 4,000 plate appearances and 40% of their games behind the dish. Among those 121 players, Molina’s career WAR (37.1) is just 28th highest. His career OPS+ (98) is just 61st best. He’s 47th in home runs, 30th in RBI, and 21st in hits.

Hall of Fame odds — 80%

Personally, I’m not convinced that Yadier Molina belongs in Cooperstown but I wouldn’t have a problem with it. Only Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez have more than Molina’s 8 career Gold Gloves for catchers. Yadi also has the metrics to back up the glove-shaped hardware. Toss in a spectacular October record and you have a nice case. I would rate the odds higher than 80% if it weren’t for his low WAR.

Unless he significantly adds to his resume in his late 30’s, however, Molina’s going to engender a lot of controversy. In every year that passes, younger BBWAA voter replace older ones. The younger generation is more likely to have an issue with Molina’s low WAR.

Although similar, this is not the same case as the controversial Cooperstown case for Omar Vizquel, which I broke down here. Vizquel had 11 Gold Gloves but the advanced defensive metrics did not back up those Gold Gloves in the same way that they do for Molina.

In addition, Vizquel made only 3 All-Star teams while Molina has made 8. Also, Yaki has earned MVP votes five times in his career (twice finishing in the top 4) while Omar only managed it one time.

Finally, Molina was a significant contributor with both the bat and glove to two World Series championship teams. Vizquel, despite being a long-time member of the Cleveland Indians in the 90’s, does not have a ring. If I were given a choice between the two, Molina would be the Cooperstown choice for me.

Adam Wainwright (36 years old)

• Career: 146-81 (.643 WL%), 3.29 ERA, 121 ERA+, 34.2 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Finished in top 3 of N.L. Cy Young Award voting four times
• 9.2 scoreless innings with 4 saves in 2006 post-season (won World Series)

Despite missing the 2011 season due to Tommy John surgery, Adam Wainwright looked like he was on his way to a possible Hall of Fame career when the 2014 season came to a close. From 2009-2014, the 6’7″ right-hander averaged 18 wins per season to go with a 2.83 ERA (which equates to a 135 ERA+). He finished 2nd or 3rd in the N.L. Cy Young voting in four of those five campaigns.

Wainwright was off to another good start in 2015 but then tore his right Achilles tendon while batting and missed the entire season.

Since returning, Waino has not been the same pitcher. He went 13-9 with a 4.62 ERA in 2016; in 2017 he went 12-5 but injuries limited him to 123.1 innings and he posted a career-worst 5.11 ERA.

Hall of Fame odds — 10%

Wainwright will turn 37 this August. He’ll have to have a major comeback to his All-Star form and hold it until past his 40th birthday to make it into the Hall of Fame.

Chicago Cubs

One of the easiest and most obvious ways to determine which are the most likely playoff teams in baseball is to identify how many players each team has that look like a Hall of Famer in the making. There’s no team in the sport that has more than the Chicago Cubs. The 2018 Cubs don’t have any sure things for Cooperstown but there at least 10 players who have either accomplished enough to have at least an outside shot or are young and talented enough that you have to think about it.

2016 N.L. MVP Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks all have enough talent and/or early accomplishments that there’s at least a small chance that they could wind up in Cooperstown in the distant future.

Bryant in particular looks like he’s destined for the Hall. His 19.6 WAR after three seasons is the 5th best for a 3-year position player in the last 100 years of the game. Russell hasn’t found his groove with the bat yet but he’s only 24 and a defensive stalwart. Contreras looks like he’ll be an All-Star backstop for years to come.

Despite some hiccups in his young career, it’s still not hard to envision Schwarber as a future 500-home run guy. Baez hasn’t put it all together yet but his combination of power hitting and superb middle-of-the-diamond fielding speak to an All-Star future.

Although he’s only been in the majors for four seasons, the Dartmouth-educated Hendricks looks like he could be a solid starting pitcher for a decade or more. Quintana, the consistent and durable lefty from Arjona, Columbia, has a career WAR of 22.6 in six MLB seasons and is only 29 years old. He sure doesn’t seem like a Hall of Fame caliber hurler but, if he takes his craft to the next level, he’s gotten off to a good enough start of his career to have a chance.

Darvish, the highly touted Japanese strikeout ace and now the owner of a $126 million contract, has Hall of Fame caliber talent but, believe it or not, will turn 32 this August. This will be his 6th MLB season. Father time is not on his side but one shouldn’t completely write off a Cooperstown future for a pitcher with his ability.

Anyway, it’s still too early to properly project the Cooperstown prognosis for most the Cubs’ great young players. But the team has three veterans who have solid Hall of Fame potential and another who is the longest of long shots. I wouldn’t say that any are more likely to make it than Bryant but they all have track records long enough to merit discussion.

Jon Lester (34 years old)

• Career: 159-92 (.633 WL%), 3.51 ERA, 122 ERA+, 41.3 WAR
• 4-time All-Star, 3 times Top 4 in Cy Young Award voting
• Career post-season: 9-7, 2.55 ERA in 21 starts (3 World Series rings)

First of all, let’s just say that until the BBWAA elects Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling to the Hall, pitchers with resumes like Jon Lester’s are not going to get in. The 6’4″, 240-pound lefty has had an up and down career, the type in which he looks like a Hall of Famer one year and then a journeyman the next.

At the age of 23, his second season in the majors, Lester was the winning pitcher for the Boston Red Sox in the decisive Game 4 of the 2007 World Series. He followed that up with a four-year run of excellence, going 65-32 (.670) with a 3.33 ERA (135 ERA+) from 2008-2011.

The ’11 season famously ended badly for the Red Sox; the team went 7-20 in September to miss the playoffs by one game. Lester shoulders his share of the blame for the collapse. He went 0-3 with a 8.24 ERA in his last 4 starts (all BoSox losses). Lester followed that up with his worst season as an MLB starter; he was 9-14 with a 4.82 ERA (87 ERA+).

After another poor start to the 2013 season (4.52 ERA in his first 23 starts), Lester turned it on down the stretch, posting a 2.19 ERA in his last 10 outings. The Sox lefty, of course, kept it going in October, going 4-1 with a 1.56 ERA in 5 post-season starts.

Contract Controversy

Having won his second World Series ring in 2013, Lester was the topic of a great deal of controversy the following spring. The Red Sox offered what was considered a “low-ball” offer to the free agent to be, a four-year deal of between $70 million and $80 million. You have to remember, though, that Lester had gone through 60 starts of mediocrity before his resurgence at the end of the season.

Anyway, Lester bet on himself and had a terrific campaign, even as his team did not. With the Sox out of contention in July, he was traded to the Oakland A’s. After a disappointing effort in the A.L. Wild Card Game (he and the team blew a 7-3 8th inning lead), Lester found his free agent riches in Chicago, signing a six-year, $155 million deal.

In three years with the Cubs, Lester’s yo-yo career has continued. He was solid in 2015, spectacular in 2016 (while getting a 3rd World Series ring) and mediocre in 2017. Take a look at Lester’s career trends, going up and down and up and down. ESPN’s Dick Vitale would call him a “Dow Joneser.”

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Lester’s Hall of Fame Prognosis

Jon Lester took a big step forward towards the Hall of Fame in 2016 and a step into quicksand in 2017. If he can put up three more seasons like he had in 2014 or ’16, he’ll be in decent shape. However, if the ’17 version is what he will be going forward, he’s not going to make it.

Barring a trade, for at least the next three years, Lester will be pitching on Chicago’s North Side with a terrific team. That should help him build his win total. Another big post-season and a fourth World Series ring would also help a lot. He’s arguably the second best active starting pitcher in the game today when it comes to October baseball, behind only Madison Bumgarner.

In his favor, Lester has been durable throughout his career. For 10 years he’s averaged 32 starts and 204 innings. Staying healthy is harder the older you get but his track record augurs well towards hanging around for a long time.

Hall of Fame odds — 40%

Anthony Rizzo (28 years old)

• Career: 166 HR, 534 RBI, .268 BA, 130 OPS+, 26.1 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 2016 Gold Glove Award, 2016 Silver Slugger
• Finished 4th in the 2015 and 2016 N.L. MVP voting

Sadly, right now Anthony Rizzo is best known for being an alumnus of Stoneman-Douglas High School, site of last month’s horrific mass murder. On the diamond, Rizz has established himself as one of the top first baseman in the major leagues.

In the last four years, here is how Rizzo ranks among the 24 first basemen who logged at least 1,500 plate appearances:

• WAR (21.4): 2nd (Paul Goldschmidt)
• OPS+ (143): 4th (Votto, Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman)
• HR (127): 2nd (Chris Davis)
• RBI (397): 2nd (Jose Abreu)
• Runs (376): 2nd (Goldschmidt)
• Hits (639): 5th (Abreu, Eric Hosmer, Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera)
• Doubles (141): 4th (Freeman, Abreu, Goldschmidt)
• Stolen Bases (35): 3rd (Goldschmidt, Wil Myers)
• Batting Average (.282): 7th (Votto, Cabrera, Goldschmidt, Abreu, Freeman, Hosmer)
• On-Base % (.387): 4th (Votto, Goldschmidt, Freeman)
• Slugging % (.522): 4th (Goldschmidt, Votto, Abreu)
• Runs Created (672): 3rd (Goldschmidt, Votto)
• WAR Runs from Fielding (35.0): 1st

It’s pretty clear, from all of these numbers, that Rizzo is a cut below Goldschmidt. If you look at just the last couple of seasons, he’s “only” the fourth best first sacker in the National League, behind Goldy, Votto and Freeman.

Votto and Goldschmidt are a little older; Rizzo and Freeman were born just 35 days apart. Here’s they compare through their age 27 seasons.

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Statistically, according to the Bill James Similarity scores on Baseball Reference, Rizzo’s offensive profile is most similar (through their age 27 seasons) to another big left-handed first baseman, Kent Hrbek of the 1980’s Minnesota Twins. After Jason Thompson, Freeman is actually the #3 “most similar.”

Since 1945, there have been just 10 first basemen who have met the following minimum criteria through their age 27 seasons: 3,000 PA, 150 HR, an OPS+ of 125 or better and a WAR of 20 or higher.

Rizzo and Freeman are two of those 10. The others? Albert Pujols, Frank Thomas, Eddie Murray, Orlando Cepeda, Mark Teixeira, Hrbek, Thompson and Boog Powell.

Hall of Fame odds — 30%

In my N.L. West piece, I also listed Goldschmidt with odds of 40%. Rizzo hasn’t been quite as good but he’s two years younger so his odds are close.

Jason Heyward (28 years old)

• Career: 115 HR, 460 RBI, .262 BA, 105 OPS+, 33.3 WAR
• 5-time Gold Glove Award winner, 2010 N.L. All-Star

Jason Heyward has struggled so much with the bat in the last two seasons of his eight-year MLB career that it might seem absurd to write about him in a piece about potential Hall of Famers. His presence in this piece is an interesting baseball story and, statistically, a WAR story.

The Phenom

Do you remember what Jason Heyward was expected to be? It was spring training in Kissimmee, Florida in 2010 and a big, 20-year old left-handed slugger was the talk of training camp for the Atlanta Braves. In three minor league stops in 2009, the Braves’ 2007 first-round pick hit .323 with 17 home runs and a .963 OPS in just 99 games.

“There’s a little sound off the bat. His line drives are kind of like ol’ Hank Aaron’s sound. We don’t want to put him in that class yet, but same sound.”

— Braves manager Bobby Cox (2/25/10, from the Associated Press)

Heyward was Baseball America‘s #1 prospect in 2010. The legend started quickly, with his first batting practice session. From the AP piece, one of his long home runs over the right-field wall hit a soft drink truck with a loud clang. Another drive cleared the right-field wall and bullpen before smashing through the sun roof of assistant general manager Bruce Manno’s car in a parking lot.

In his rookie campaign with the Braves, Heyward hit .277 with 18 home runs, 72 RBI while posting a .393 on-base% and 131 OPS+. With superb fielding metrics to go with his quality season at the plate, Heyward’s WAR was 6.4, by far the best in the majors for any rookie. Still, he finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting to Buster Posey.

Disappointingly, Heyward’s OPS+ from that rookie campaign remains a career high. He showed remarkable plate discipline in 2010, drawing 91 walks, also still a career high (by far).

After a sophomore slump (.227 BA, 93 OPS+), Heyward had a solid 2012 campaign; he set career highs with 27 HR and 82 RBI with a 117 OPS+ while winning his first of five Gold Gloves.

Free Agent “Walk Year” in St. Louis

In the 2014-15 off-season and free agency looming, Heyward was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Jay-Hey Kid responded with a career best season by WAR (6.6) thanks mostly to his sterling glove work and base-running (23 SB, 3 CS). Still, he was an asset with the bat, hitting a career-best .293 to go with a 117 OPS+.

The 26-year-old former phenom, thanks to his work with the glove and his legs, earned a WAR of 29.8 in his first six seasons. That total was good enough to be 11th best among all position players in the game for those six years.

To put some historical perspective on what Heyward accomplished through his age 25 season, this is a top 10 list (by WAR) for all players who have made their MLB debuts in the LCS era (since 1969):

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Like another former Atlanta Braves’ superstar prospect (Andruw Jones), Heyward’s place on this list is due mostly to his work with the glove. Jones looked like a Hall of Famer for sure for his first ten MLB seasons but his career fell off a cliff when he hit 30. Click here to learn about the Curacao Kid’s aborted journey to Cooperstown.

In today’s game, players are paid in free agency by their age and WAR and Heyward had both on his side when he signed with the Chicago Cubs for 8 years and $184 million.

What’s Happened in Chicago?

Although he’s remained a Gold Glove caliber right fielder, Heyward’s bat has gone ice cold in his two seasons on Chicago’s North Side.

In two seasons, he’s hit .243 with just 18 home runs and a woeful 76 OPS+. That far below average OPS+ is the fifth worst in baseball for players totaling at least 1,000 plate appearances in 2016-2017.

In two post-season runs in Chicago, Heyward has hit just .108 with no taters and just one RBI in 71 plate appearances. Still, in the intangibles department, he’s given credit as the team leader who rallied the troops during the rain delay of Game 7 of the 2016 World Series.

Anyway, perhaps in part because of the offensive struggles of the Jay-Hey Kid, the Cubs replaced hitting coach John Mallee with Chili Davis in the off-season. Davis, a switch-hitter who hit 350 home runs in his MLB career, is working extensively with Heyward this spring.

Heyward’s struggles at the plate have led to inconsistent playing time on Joe Maddon’s Cubs, despite the big-money contract. Because of his fielding prowess, Maddon still likes to put his name in the lineup most of the time but, if his bat doesn’t wake up, he’ll probably start more games on the bench, in particular against left-handed pitching.

Heyward’s Cooperstown Chances

Needless to say, if Heyward keeps hitting the way he has in his first two years with the Cubs, he will not be a Hall of Famer. But remember that he’s still just 28 years old. Look at what some of the top Hall of Famers of the past 70 years accomplished through their age 27 seasons.

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All told, at this age point in his career, Heyward has a higher WAR than over 100 Hall of Fame position players at this point in their respective careers.

Through his age 27 season, Heyward has more hits than Tony Gwynn, Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor, Lou Brock, Craig Biggio, and Wade Boggs had at this point in their careers.

At his current age, Heyward has more home runs than Jeff Bagwell, Willie Stargell, and Stan Musial had when they were the same age.

Heyward is still in his physical prime. Baseball history is filled with players who don’t “figure it out” until their late 20’s. The Cubs have six years and 134 million reasons to give him a chance to turn it around offensively. If he even becomes an average hitter, he’s enormously valuable due to his glove work.

Hall of Fame Chances — 15%

I would have put Heyward’s chances at 40% two years ago but he’s had two really bad years. Still, if he continues to play Gold Glove level defense and can become at least an average hitter, he could be one of the those players who sneaks up on us as a Cooperstown candidate.

Ben Zobrist (36 years old)

• Career: 157 HR, 693 RBI, 1,388 Hits, .263 BA, 114 OPS+, 42.1 WAR
• 3-time All-Star
• Hit .303 with .880 OPS in 2015 post-season with Royals (won World Series)
• 2016 World Series MVP (.357 BA, .419 OBP, .500 SLG)

Let me start by stating that Benjamin Thomas Zobrist will almost certainly not be going to the Hall of Fame as an inducted member. I’m writing about him here because he is a fascinating and underrated player and, for me, a controversial one because of how modern analytics have rated him.

If you believe in WAR (Wins Above Replacement), the player known as Zorilla in Tampa Bay was the third best player in baseball over a six year period.

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Offensively, Zobrist has always been underrated. He is a high OBP guy who hits a lot of doubles. He was (and still is) best known for his versatility.

You might be surprised to know that WAR gives him no credit for being able to play multiple positions. He’s played over 150 career games at 2nd base, shortstop, left field and right field.

The reason, however, that Zobrist ranked 3rd in WAR over 6 years is because he had spectacular defensive metrics. In the Baseball Reference category WAR Runs Above or Below Average from Fielding, Zobrist was tied for 4th with Dustin Pedroia, behind Heyward and two defensive wizards at shortstop (Brendan Ryan and Andrelton Simmons).

Shifting the Night Away

I’m sorry, but I watched a lot of Red Sox-Rays games over those years and you will never convince me that Zobrist was Pedroia’s equal defensively.

What Zobi-Wan Kenobi had that Pedey did not was the benefit of superior defensive positioning. Zobrist, as a member of Joe Maddon’s Tampa Bay Rays, was a key part of the team’s use of the “shift.” Although all teams do it now, at the time Maddon’s teams shifted more than any others in baseball.

From 2009-2011, Zobrist (and Rays third baseman Evan Longoria) had spectacular defensive metrics. The numbers below represent the fielding component of “runs above or below average” that lead to each player’s overall WAR.

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How does one explain the drop-off from 2009-2011 to 2012-2014? I always suspected something like this by I learned the real answer at the SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix last weekend. Brian Reiff, from Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), showed the conference some changes that BIS was making for improving their defensive metrics.

As a part of his presentation, Reiff went through a bit of a history lesson. He made a comment that was an “ah-ha” moment for me. He explained that, after the 2011 season, BIS stopped counting shift plays because it was distorting the defensive metrics of certain players.

These players were making plays that nobody else made because they were positioned in locations on the diamond that nobody else played. BIS is the company that supplies the data that Baseball Reference uses for their defensive statistics.

The bottom line is that Zobrist and Longoria posted super-human defensive numbers when BIS counted all of the plays and more human numbers when the shift plays were not counted in the defensive ratings.

Anyway, this is not meant to denigrate Zobrist’s real contributions to the excellent Rays teams from 2008-13. His positional flexibility, not accounted for in WAR, was a huge asset in real life. He was a solid offensive player and a superior defensive player.

But, with apologies, he was not the third best position player in all of baseball for that six-year period.

Hall of Fame chances — 1%

Zobrist’s 1% chance rests with the possibility that he will have three more All-Star caliber seasons and that he plays a key role in another couple of World Series titles with the Cubs.

At his age, and where his career statistics currently sit, he’s a long, long way away from Cooperstown. That doesn’t take away the two rings that he’s already earned and the eternal respect of a really good team player.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers, a surprise last year with 86 wins, have a nice group of young players and made two key acquisitions this off-season with the trade for center fielder Christian Yelich and free agent signing of right fielder Lorenzo Cain.

Casual fans might be surprised to know that Cain was already 28 years old when he had his breakout season with the 2014 Kansas City Royals. Cain hit .333 in the ’14 post-season and made several spectacular defensive plays, putting him squarely in focus as an emerging star.

Even so, Cain will turn 32 years old this April. His career high in home runs is 16; his career high in RBI is 72; he’s scored 100 runs once. He’s made just one All-Star squad and not won a Gold Glove, despite likely deserving one or more. This is not a Cooperstown candidate right now.

Ryan Braun (34 years old)

• Career: 302 HR, 989 RBI, 1,699 Hits, .302 BA, 139 OPS+, 45.3 WAR
• 6-time All-Star, 5-time Silver Slugger
• 2007 N.L. Rookie of the Year (.324 BA, 34 HR, 97 RBI, 154 OPS+)
• 2011 N.L. MVP (.332 BA, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 33 SB, 166 OPS+)

From his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2007 to his N.L. MVP runner-up finish in 2012, for six years Ryan Braun was one of the best players in Major League Baseball.

Then, of course, the PED monster reared its ugly head. Braun was suspended for 65 games for using Performance Enhancing Drugs during his 2011 MVP campaign.

Whether its the lack of PEDs or just the natural aging process, Braun has been a good but not great player since returning from that suspension.

Among corner outfielders, Braun is 12th in home runs and 11th in RBI from 2014-2017. His 123 OPS+ is good for 8th best among those with 1,500 PA during those four years. In WAR, he’s 19th best.

What does this mean? It means that, most likely, when it comes time for Braun to join the Hall of Fame ballot, the voters are more likely to judge Braun as the post-suspension player he has been rather than the player that he was.

The pre-suspension Ryan Braun was a great, Hall of Fame caliber player. The post-suspension version has been good but not close to Cooperstown caliber.

Hall of Fame odds — 10%

I’m putting Braun’s odds at 10% on the off-chance that he surpasses 500 home runs and/or 3,000 hits and that the Hall of Fame voters are more forgiving to PED users than they are today.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates, having traded Andrew McCutchen to the San Francisco Giants, don’t have any players that one can credibly say are on a likely path to getting a bust with their likeness in Cooperstown.

The player with the most credentials so far is Starling Marte, now a six-year veteran. The 29-year old Marte is a plus defender, solid hitter and base stealing threat. With McCutchen gone, Marte will move from left field to center field.

Of course, there’s a problem. Marte was suspended last year for PED use. He’ll need to have a career far better than what he’s had so far to overcome that stain on his legacy.

That’s it for the N.L. Central. Thanks for reading.

Chris Bodig

Please follow me on Twitter @cooperstowncred.