Future Hall of Fame Candidates: A.L. Central

With three teams in a full rebuilding mode, the American League Central has the fewest easily discernible future Hall of Famers of any of baseball’s six divisions. Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers is the only player from the A.L. Central who is a virtual lock for a future plaque in Cooperstown.

This is the third part of a six-part series, featuring profiles of the active players who look like either certain, likely, or possible Hall of Famers in the future.

Before we get started with the stars A.L. Central, let’s go over the ground rules again. In order to be eligible for the Hall of Fame, a player must have service time in 10 different MLB seasons. I’ll comment on many of these players. In addition, for a handful current stars who have played between 6 and 9 seasons, I’ll take a look at their cases as well, recognizing that it’s still early.

Generally speaking, I won’t comment extensively on players with 5 full years of service time or less. Some of these young players sure look like future Hall of Famers right now but baseball history is littered with young stars who flamed out after burning brightly in their first few seasons.

As I did with the first two pieces, to allow people to tease me in the years to come, I’m going to throw out some unscientific odds at each player eventually getting a Hall of Fame plaque. With these odds, I’m going to make the assumption that none of the players profiled below will ever be suspended in the future for use of PEDs. These predictions are based on past and predicted future performance only.

In this piece we’ll make extensive references to the statistics WAR (Wins Above Replacement), OPS+ (ballpark adjusted on-base + slugging%) and ERA+ (ballpark adjusted ERA). For more on these advanced metrics, please visit the Glossary. 

(cover photo: USA Today Sports/Rick Osentoski)

Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians might be the one team in all of baseball most likely to make the 2018 playoffs, due to the overall weakness of the A.L. Central. Led by a future Hall of Fame manager in Terry Francona, the Indians feature a core of budding superstars in the lineup, a couple of aces at the top of the rotation and a relief ace who is redefining the role.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor is only 24 years old but looks like a future Hall of Famer. It’s too early to start projecting him but his 5th place finish in the 2017 A.L. MVP vote puts him in the league’s elite.

Another infielder who flipped between 2nd and 3rd base, Jose Ramirez (25 years of age) finished 3rd in the MVP vote last year, behind Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge. Again, it’s far too early to start talking Hall of Fame.

So, let’s take a look at three members of the Tribe who, all as late bloomers, are making their arguments on the field for Cooperstown.

Corey Kluber (31 years old)

• Career: 76-48 (.613 WL%), 3.13 ERA, 135 ERA+, 26.9 WAR
• 2014 A.L. Cy Young Award winner (18-9, 2.44 ERA, 160 ERA+, 7.4 WAR)
• 2017 A.L. Cy Young Award winner (18-4, 2.25 ERA, 202 ERA+, 8.0 WAR)
• 2-time All-Star

For the last four years, Corey Kluber has been one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball. He has looked like a Hall of Famer in the making. It might surprise you to know, however, that Kluber is turning 32 years of age on April 10th.

A 4th round pick by the San Diego Padres in 2007, traded to the Cleveland Indians in July 2010, Kluber did not look like a potential major league ace in his minor league years. In 2011, at the age of 25, pitching for the AAA Columbus Clippers, Kluber posted a 5.56 ERA in 150.2 innings. Three years later, he won the A.L. Cy Young Award.

Kluber has the 2nd highest WAR for all starting pitchers for the last four years (just behind Max Scherzer). His park-adjusted ERA+ of 152 is second best only to Clayton Kershaw’s.

As a potential Cooperstown candidate, Kluber’s late bloom as a top flight starter has put him way behind the 8-ball. There’s only one Hall of Fame starting pitcher in history with fewer than Kluber’s 76 wins through his age 31 season.

That one pitcher was Dazzy Vance. The big right-hander from Iowa was an official rookie with the Brooklyn Robins at the age of 31 in 1922. In 9 years, he went 164-105 with a 3.05 ERA and finished his career with 197 wins. He was elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA in 1955.

Anyway, the Indians’ right-hander known as Klubot, armed with a curveball-slider hybrid that Fan Graphs calls the best pitch in baseball, is making up for lost time. If he maintains this level of brilliance for another 4 to 5 seasons, if he becomes a 3-time or 4-time Cy Young Award winner, he will have be be taken seriously as a Hall of Fame candidate.

A cautionary tale: Johan Santana was, hands down, the best pitcher in baseball from 2002-2008 (winning 2 Cy Young Awards, going 106-48 with a 2.86 ERA). Shortly after pitching a no-hitter for the New York Mets in 2012, his career was prematurely over.

Santana finished his career with 139 wins. He got just 2.4% of the vote this year in his first (and now only) appearance on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.

Kluber will have to win more Cy Youngs and pitch at a high level until his late 30’s or early 40’s to have a chance at the Hall.

Hall of Fame odds — 33%

Given his age and low career numbers, even 33% is probably high. I’m thinking there’s a 33% chance that he remains this version of Corey Kluber for another 5-6 years and wins another couple of additional Cy Youngs.

Future Hall of Fame voters are going to have to start lowering their “win” requirements for the current generation of pitchers. If Klubot finishes with 3 or 4 Cy Young trophies, his plaque in Cooperstown will be hard to deny even if his career statistics are wanting.

Edwin Encarnacion (35 years old)

• Career: 348 HR, 1,049 RBI, 125 OPS+, 30.3 WAR
• 3-time All-Star

Just as it was with Kluber, Edwin Encarnacion was a late bloomer, not establishing himself as a significant major league bat until he was 29 years old in 2012.

In the last six seasons, Encarnacion leads all MLB hitters with 231 HR and 657 RBI. If he can continue to “walk the parrot” and maintain that status for another 3-to-4 seasons, he will have to be taken seriously as a Hall of Fame candidate. That’s a tall order for a 35-year old player but not unprecedented.

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As you can see, Edwin is close to the pace set by David Ortiz through his age 34 season, at least with respect to Home Runs and RBI. Big Papi, of course, flourished at the end of his career, finishing it with over 500 HR and the legend of one of the greatest clutch post-season hitters in the history of the game.

Bill James, in the 2018 Bill James Handbook, estimates that Encarnacion has a 54% chance of reaching 500 home runs. In years past, 500 taters would have conferred an automatic Cooperstown plaque. In today’s game, however, achieving that milestone guarantees nothing.

There are a lot of other first basemen and DH types who Edwin will be compared to when it’s his turn on the Hall of Fame ballot.

Hall of Fame odds — 30%

I only place Encarnacion’s odds that high because of James’ “Favorite Toy” formula which puts him at better than 50-50 to achieve 500 home runs. I don’t think 500 taters will be enough for a Cooperstown plaque, even for a player not linked to PEDs. Still, it will make him a legitimate candidate and if he can add some October moments to his resume, he certainly has a chance.

Andrew Miller (32 years old)

• Career: 47-44 (.516 WL%), 51 Saves, 3.97 ERA, 109 ERA+, 9.0 WAR
• 2-time All-Star

OK, if you allow your eyes to linger a little bit on the career statistics of Andrew Miller, my decision to include him in a discussion of potential Hall of Famers might seem a little bit insane.

Miller’s mediocre overall numbers are skewed by his years as a failed starting pitcher. From 2006-2011, pitching for Detroit, Florida and Boston, Miller was 21-29 with a 5.79 ERA (which translates to a far below average 76 ERA+).

Since becoming a full-time relief pitcher in 2012, Miller Time has gone 26-15 with a 2.01 ERA, a 213 ERA+ with a 0.892 WHIP and 14.1 strikeouts per 9 innings.

In addition to his 51 saves, Miller has 93 “holds” and has stranded 81% of all inherited runners. That percentage is the best in baseball since 2012 for any stoppers with at least 100 runners on base when they entered the game.

The 6’7″ Miller has the track record and the stuff to be a 9th inning closer but, as a team-first player, he’s embraced Terry Francona’s plan to use him as a middle-of-the-game fireman.

Hall of Fame odds — 10%

Maybe that’s high, maybe it’s low. I have no idea how Hall of Fame voters will evaluate relief pitchers five years after Andrew Miller’s career ends. If he continues to pitch at the same brilliant level that he has for the past 6 seasons, if he has some significant post-season moments, voters might look at him as a retro pioneer of sorts, the kind of candidate who transcends traditional statistics.

Regardless, Andrew Miller is currently one of the most fascinating relief specialists in the game.

Minnesota Twins

Last year, the Minnesota Twins were the most surprising entrant into the 2017 post-season party. The 2016 version of the Twins won just 59 games. The ’17 team improved by 26 games, winning 85 and earning the 2nd Wild Card spot. Although they lost that Wild Card contest to the New York Yankees, the Twins announced to the baseball world that they were a young team ready to compete.

As the only team today with a Hall of Fame player (Paul Molitor) as their manager, the 2018 Twins will feature a lot of exciting young players to go with a handful of key veterans.

One of those vets, 2nd baseman Brian Dozier, is almost worth discussing as a future Hall of Fame candidate. With 42 home runs and 99 RBI, he finished 13th in the 2017 A.L. MVP voting. In 2018, Dozier finished 11th in the MVP vote; he hit 34 HR, drove in 93, and won his first Gold Glove.

Dozier’s WAR of 11.0 in the last two seasons is the 2nd best in MLB, 2nd best only to Jose Altuve. If he keeps performing at his 2016/2017 levels for another couple of years, it will be time to start discussing his potential as a Cooperstown candidate.

Joe Mauer (34 years old)

• Career: .308 BA, .391 OBP, 137 HR, 875 RBI, 1,986 hits, 126 OPS+, 53.4 WAR
• 2009 A.L. MVP (28 HR, 96 RBI, led A.L. with .365 BA, .444 OBP and .587 SLG)
• 2nd best batting average (.323) from 2004-2013 (to Miguel Cabrera)
• 6-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Career: 6th best fielding percentage for all catchers, 5th best for all first basemen

When Joe Mauer finished the 2013 season, the thought that he would not eventually be a slam-dunk Hall of Famer would have seemed absurd. He was a career .323 hitter who owned a 135 OPS+, a 44.2 WAR, he was a six-time All-Star, a former MVP, and he was a catcher.

Only four catchers in the history of the game had a higher WAR for their first ten seasons (Hall of Famers Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza, Gary Carter, and Mickey Cochrane).

In the Twin Cities, Mauer is a hometown hero, having attended high school in St. Paul; he was the #1 overall draft pick by his hometown Minnesota Twins in the 2001 amateur draft.  He became the team’s full-time starting catcher in 2005 and became a star in 2006, when he hit .347 and finished 6th in the A.L. MVP voting.

In 2009, Mauer was a nearly unanimous choice as the American League’s MVP. His 28 home runs, 96 RBI, 191 hits, .365 average, .444 on-base% and .587 slugging% were all career highs. Mauer did his best work at his home ballpark, the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, where he hit. 388 and slugged 16 of his 28 taters.

In 2010, two things changed in Joe Mauer’s life. First, the Twins moved from the much-maligned Metrodome to a brand new outdoor ballpark, Target Field. The second was that the normally cost-conscious Twins, with the new revenue stream afforded by their sparkling new park, decided to pony up for their hometown hero, inking Mauer to an eight-year contract extension worth $184 million.

But something went wrong in this master plan. Target Field turned out to be a more elusive home target for the left-handed hitting catcher than the previous indoor venue known as the Homer-Dome. A year after hitting 28 home runs overall (16 of them in the Metrodome), Mauer’s home run total sagged to just 9, with only one of those dingers at his new home ballpark.

All told, in 2010 and the seven years since, Mauer has hit just 27 home runs at Target Field, this in 2,209 plate appearances, the equivalent of four full MLB seasons.

Mauer’s overall home run high has been 11 in the eight years since his MVP campaign. Compounding the power outage problem, in 2014 Mauer shed the tools of ignorance and moved to first base, a position where power hitting is expected. Mauer and the Twins agreed to the move after the 2013 season when a late-season concussion ended his season prematurely.

The Second Phase in Mauer’s Career at First Base

Mauer’s move to first base coincided with a decline in his offensive statistics. Although he qualified for the batting title with 518 plate appearances, he posted paltry numbers, hitting a career-low .277, slugging just 4 home runs while driving in 55.

The 2015 season wasn’t much better: he hit .265 with 10 home runs and 66 RBI. His park-adjusted OPS+ was 98, the first time he posted a below-average number.

Mauer revealed in 2016 that, in the years since moving from behind the dish to first base, he continued to suffer from blurred vision, a residual symptom from his 2013 concussion.

Anyway, after a brilliant eight-year run as a future Hall of Fame catcher, Mauer has been a light-hitting first sacker. In 2017, he hit .305, his first campaign with a batting average above .300 since his final year behind the plate. He’s turned himself into a very good defensive player and, while still lacking the power you would like to enjoy from a first baseman, is hitting and fielding well-enough to be a respectable option at the position.

Mauer’s contract expires at the end of the 2018 season and, needless to say, there will be no more 9 figure deals in his future. Considering that the Twins are a budget-conscious team and that Mauer values playing in his hometown, I would expect him to sign a team-friendly contract, a goodwill gesture to make up for what turned out to be a Mauer-friendly contract.

Even without the power, Mauer is still more valuable than more than half of the other first basemen in the league. Unless his offensive production regresses again, he could spend several seasons helping the team while building the counting stats for a Hall of Fame resume.

Mauer’s Hall of Fame Prognosis

In some minds, because of his peak offensive performance at a premium defensive position he’s a Hall of Famer already but today’s voters are tough. It really comes down to how long he keeps playing and what his final numbers look like. Although he will get credit for his good numbers as a catcher, it should be noted that, even when catcher was his primary position, Mauer started a lot of games at first base or as the team’s designated hitter.

Mauer only caught 100 games five times in his career. His 920 career games behind the dish are just 145th in the history of the game, according to Baseball Reference. Compare that to Yadier Molina, another active catcher considered a future Hall of Fame candidate. Molina has caught 1,715 games, nearly double Mauer’s total and 18th most in history.

In my opinion, if Mauer can surpass 2,500 hits (he’s currently at 1,986) and keep his career batting average over .300 (right now he’s at .308), he should make it into the Hall of Fame. But the BBWAA voters are going to have to remember his years behind the dish. There’s nothing he’s done since moving to first base that screams Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame odds — 60%

Detroit Tigers

With Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, the 2017 edition of the Detroit Tigers had two superstars who both appeared to be on a Cooperstown track. Verlander, of course, the long-time ace starting pitcher, was traded to the Houston Astros and wound up winning his first World Series championship.

Although the Tigers are in a rebuilding mode, there’s virtually no chance that Cabrera will be dealt to another team as Verlander was. Cabrera, coming off the worst season of his career, is impossible to trade due to the six years and $192 million he is still owed on his contract.

The 2018 Tigers have two other players who once appeared to have Cooperstown potential. Having been the team’s designated hitter since 2011, it’s hard to remember that Victor Martinez was once an elite catcher. In 9 seasons with Cleveland and Boston, V-Mart made 4 All-Star squads. A switch-hitter equally adept from both sides of the plate, Martinez posted a .300 batting average, 121 OPS+ and five 20+ home run seasons in those first 9 campaigns.

After the 2010, the Tigers signed Martinez as a free agent and, valuing his bat above his glove, made him the team’s full-time DH. He had a solid season in 2011 and a near-MVP-caliber campaign in 2014 (.335 BA, .409 OBP, 172 OPS+, 32 HR, 103 RBI, 5.5 WAR).

Since then, however, he’s been more of a liability than an asset, with a below-league-average 99 OPS+ in 2015-2017 with a -0.6 WAR. At the age of 39 and a career WAR of 33.5, there is no chance that V-Mart has a Cooperstown plaque in his future.

When the Tigers inked Washington Nationals’ pitcher Jordan Zimmerman to a 5-year, $110 million contract after the 2015 season, it looked like they had a solid ace who could supplant Verlander as the team’s #1 starter. A possible ceremony in Cooperstown in the future was not an idea to be laughed at.

Unfortunately, after 5 years in Washington in which he posted a 3.14 ERA (123 ERA+), Zimmerman has been pretty awful in Detroit. He was 9-7 with a 4.83 ERA in 2016. In the 2017 campaign, it got worse for Zim. In 160 innings, he went 8-13 with a 6.08 ERA, by far the highest in the majors for any pitcher with at least 150 innings pitched.

So, that leaves us with…

Miguel Cabrera (34 years old)

• Career: 462 HR, 1,613 RBI, 2,636 Hits, .317 BA, 151 OPS, 68.8 WAR
• 2012 A.L. MVP: 44 HR, 139 RBI, .330 BA (won the A.L. Triple Crown)
• 2013 A.L. MVP: 44 HR, 137 RBI, .348 BA, 190 OPS+
• 11-time All-Star, 7-time Silver Slugger, 4-time batting champion

Miguel Cabrera burst onto the national scene in 2003 at the age of 20, playing left field and third base for the World Champion Florida Marlins. The young Venezuelan was a key figure in the team’s 7-game NLCS victory over the Chicago Cubs, hitting .333 with 3 home runs and 6 RBI.

The brilliant right-handed hitter known as Miggy became an All-Star at 21 (in 2004), the first of his 11 appearances in the Mid-Summer Classic. In 13 seasons (spanning 2004-16), Cabrera averaged 33 HR, 115 RBI, 99 runs scored with a .323 batting average and 157 OPS+. In those 13 years, Cabrera has the following ranks among all position players in MLB (with at least 5,000 plate appearances):

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After those 13 brilliant campaigns with the bat, Cabrera had a woeful season in 2017. Excluding his rookie “half season,” Miggy set career lows in his entire slash line (.249/.329/.399), in home runs (16), and RBI (60).

His miserable 2017 campaign can be easily attributed to the several herniated disks he had in his back but personal woes also likely took a psychological toll. A report from TMZ indicated that Cabrera has been worried about his mother in his native Venezuela and that he’s been paying protection money so that she won’t be kidnapped.

Cabrera will turn 35 on April 18th. His back issues will likely be something he has to worry about for the rest of his career. It may be wise for the Tigers to bid adieu to Martinez and allow Cabrera to become a full-time DH. He’s still owed that $192 million over the next 6 years so, unless injury completely prevents him from playing, he’ll be in the lineup for years to come.

Early signs this spring point to Miggy being healthy and feeling good.

Cabrera is one-to-two years away from 500 home runs and two-to-three away from 3,000 hits but, if he had to retire tomorrow, he’s already accomplished enough to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Hall of Fame odds — 100%

Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals, now in a rebuilding mode less than three years after having won the 2015 World Series, don’t have any players on their current roster who appear to be on a likely Hall of Fame track, with one possible exception, their All-Star catcher.

Before we get to El Nino, a quick word about Mike Moustakas. The Royals 3rd baseman is not a Hall of Fame candidate at this point of his career, despite setting a career high with 38 home runs in 2017. Moose’s WAR, through his age 28 season, is just 11.4.

Of the 157 position player Hall of Famers, only six had a lower WAR at that point of their careers and for two of them (Jackie Robinson and Roy Campanella), the reason had nothing to do with their playing ability. The free agent market, bizarre as it was this off-season, spoke loudly that Moustakas is not quite the player that his reputation would suggest.

Salvador Perez (27 years old)

• Career: 114 HR, 423 RBI, 99 OPS+, 19.3 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award winner

Despite making his Major League debut for a bad Royals team in 2011, I noticed Salvador Perez fairly early in his career. He came up in August and hit just .194 in his first 10 games. After that, however, Salvy hit .375 with a .545 slugging percentage for his final 29 games as a rookie, earning him (at some point in that run) a spot on my fantasy baseball team.

Having finished his brief rookie season with a .331 batting average and 128 OPS+, Salvador Perez was a player to watch for 2012. Unfortunately, a knee injury in spring training delayed his season debut until late June and limited him to 76 games.

Since then, from 2013 to 2017, Perez has been a mainstay in the Royals lineup and a crucial member of the pennant-winning teams of 2014 and 2015. Perez became a household name (at least in baseball-fan households) when, in the 2014 Wild Card game, he delivered a game-winning RBI single in the bottom of the 12th inning to give the Royals a 9-8 victory over the Oakland Athletics.

Forget the fact that he had been 0 for 5 in the game before that game-winning hit. Forget the fact that he looked like an easy out for a good pitcher, that he didn’t have good strike zone management. It didn’t matter; he delivered the RBI that won the game.

The Royals fell to the San Francisco Giants in 7 games in 2014 and returned to the Fall Classic in 2015. In five games against the New York Mets, Perez won MVP honors by hitting .364 as the Royals won their first championship since 1985.

Salvador Perez is huge. At 6’4″ and 240 pounds, Salvy has the body of a first baseman or designated hitter. He also has the size that makes one expect home run power. Although it’s been late in developing, Perez is showing more of it every year.

How Perez compares to other active catchers

Take a look at the top 10 active catchers (ranked by Wins Above Replacement) to compare their performances through their respective age 27 seasons:

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The chart above is really interesting and shows how difficult it is to project forward following a player’s age 27 season. As we’ve seen, Mauer’s career path has recently clouded his Hall of Fame prognosis. Buster Posey, whose Giants’ topped Perez’ Royals in 2014 to give him his third ring, looks like he’s on a solid path to Cooperstown. Read more about him and other N.L. West stars by clicking here.

Brian McCann, a member of the 2017 World Champion Astros, looked really good early in his career but his numbers have stalled. You can read about McCann’s long-shot Cooperstown chances and the other top players in the A.L. West by clicking here.

Yadier Molina, of the cross-state rival St. Louis Cardinals, is considered a strong Hall of Fame candidate due to his 8 All-Star appearances, 8 Gold Gloves, and 2 World Series rings. Perez, at this point in his career, is far ahead of Yadi both statistically and with respect to already earned accolades.

The Early Hall of Fame Progress for El Nino

Comparing Perez’ early-career performance against all catchers in MLB history, his 19.3 WAR through his age 27 season ranks just 23rd among 167 backstops with at least 1,500 PA through their age 27 campaigns. Because of his lack of plate discipline (he has a career .301 on-base%), Salvy’s career OPS+ is just 99.

Only the much-maligned Veteran’s Committee picks Ray Schalk and Rick Ferrell had below-average OPS+ numbers among Hall of Fame catchers at this point in their respective careers.

At a snapshot level (with a WS MVP, 5 All-Star appearances and 4 Gold Gloves), Salvador Perez looks like a future Hall of Famer. When you look closely at the numbers, though, it’s clear that he has a lot of work to do.

He’ll have to remain healthy (always hard for a catcher to do), he’ll have to remain a catcher (he doesn’t hit well enough right now to move to first base or DH) and he’ll have to improve as a hitter.

Improving as a hitter is certainly possible. He’s only 27. He made some nice strides last year. In 2017, he established career highs with 27 HR, 80 RBI and a .495 slugging percentage.

Also, he’s a good defensive catcher with a strong arm and (from StatCast) a surprisingly quick “exchange rate” (the time that it takes to get the ball from the glove to his hand when trying to throw out a base stealer).

Hall of Fame odds — 15%

He doesn’t have the numbers of a future Hall of Famer right now but seems to be improving and has gotten a head start in accolades that Hall of Fame voters look for.

Alex Gordon (34 years old)

• Career: 160 HR, 608 RBI, 1,337 hits, 105 OPS+, 32.7 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 5-time Gold Glove Award winner

A few years ago, after the Royals 2014 World Series loss to the Giants, left fielder Alex Gordon looked like a stealth Cooperstown candidate.

A solid hitter who had just won his fourth straight Gold Glove, Gordon had posted a 24.4 WAR from 2011 to 2014. That total was fourth best among all position players, behind only Mike Trout, Robinson Cano, Andrew McCutchen, Cabrera and Adrian Beltre.

Thanks to a left groin strain, Gordon was only able to play 104 games in 2015.  Still, off the buzz of Kansas City’s first World Series title in 30 years, the team signed their 3-time All-Star to a 4-year, $72 million contract.

The Lost Years (2016-2017)

Halfway through the 4-year deal, the contract has been a disaster for the Royals. Gordon hit .220 with a 85 OPS+ in 2016.

In 2017, his offensive game regressed even further. In 148 games, he hit just .208 with a lowly 62 OPS+ to go with just 45 RBI and 52 runs scored. His OPS+ of 62 was the worst in baseball among the 144 players who qualified for their league’s batting title.

Gordon, the #2 overall pick in the 2005 draft, looked like a bust early in his career. Then came his four-year run where he was solid offensively and brilliant with the leather. Unfortunately, the last two years have been really terrible, despite winning his fifth Gold Glove in 2017.

There’s nothing that Gordon has done on the field in the last two years that indicates that a resurgence is around the corner. Still, at 34, it’s possible. If somehow he were able to recapture his 2011-2014 form offensively and continue to play at a high level in left field, he could finish with a career WAR in the 50’s which would give him at least a cursory look by the Hall of Fame voters.

Hall of Fame odds — 1%

Even if Gordon precisely duplicated his 2011-2014 seasons (a tall order for a mid-30’s player), he’d still be far short of Cooperstown.

Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox, in a full team rebuild, do not have any credible Hall of Fame candidates right now. First baseman Jose Abreu, with four straight seasons of 25 HR and 100 RBI with a 142 OPS+ has potential. However, because he was a defector from Cuba, his MLB career got off to a late start. He’s already 31 years old entering his fifth season in the majors.

In the first four seasons of his career, Joakim Soria (despite pitching for the perpetually bad Kansas City Royals) racked up 132 saves, the third highest total in MLB history for a pitcher in their first four seasons. Soria also had an ERA of 2.01 (park-adjusted 218 ERA+) in those first four campaigns.

Since then, from 2011 to 2017, the oft-injured product of Monclova, Mexico has saved just 72 games with a 3.53 ERA. This is why we don’t talk about Hall of Fame potential after four years. With the White Sox this spring, Soria is now pitching for his fifth different organization in the last five years.

 

That’s it. With three out of five teams in rebuilding mode, there’s not a lot of obvious Cooperstown potential in the American League Central. Stay tuned for a look at the top players in the National League Central.

Thanks for reading. Please follow me on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Chris Bodig