The Hall of Fame Case for Orel Hershiser

The Hall of Fame case for Orel Hershiser is all about his peak and, in particular, two magical months in 1988. Starting with the 6th inning of an August 30th start in Montreal, Hershiser finished the regular season by tossing 59 1/3 scoreless innings.

The pitcher dubbed “Bulldog” by Dodgers manager Tommy Lasorda then followed that up by logging a 1.05 ERA in 42.2 postseason innings. Hershiser’s efforts gave him MVP trophies in both the NLCS and the World Series.

Hershiser was on the mound as the Dodgers closed out the New York Mets in the 7th game of the LCS and when they finished off the Oakland Athletics in the 5th Game of the Fall Classic.

Orel’s career didn’t ultimately live up to the promise predicted by 1988 but, overall, he still had an excellent 18-year run in Major League Baseball.

Hershiser is one of the 10 candidates on the Hall of Fame “Today’s Game” ballot. A panel of 16 media members, baseball executives and Hall of Famers will vote on Hershiser and 9 others early in December to determine if any of them will be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Cooperstown Cred: Orel Hershiser

• Career: 204-150 (.576 WL%), 3.48 ERA
• Career: 112 ERA+, 51.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Won 1988 N.L. Cy Young Award (23-8, 2.26 ERA, 15 complete games, 8 shutouts)
• Four times in Top 4 of Cy Young voting
• MVP of the 1988 NLCS and World Series for Los Angeles Dodgers
• 3-time All-Star
• Career postseason: 8-3, 2.59 ERA in 132 innings

(cover photo: Associated Press/Tom Gannam)

I’ll start this piece by re-living the highlights or Orel Hershiser’s career. If you’re strapped for time, however, I invite you to scroll down to “The Hall of Fame Case for Orel Hershiser.”

Career Highlights

Orel Leonard Hershiser IV was born on September 16, 1958 in Buffalo, New York. After three years at Bowling Green University, Hershiser was drafted in the 17th round of the 1979 draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Hershiser spent five seasons in the minor leagues before getting to the majors as a September call-up in 1983. Throughout his years in the minors, the 6’3″ right-hander was used primarily in relief.

Hershiser opened the ’84 season (with the Dodgers) in the bullpen. After a spot start on June 7th, he  joined the rotation on June 29th and promptly threw a complete game in a 7-1 victory, followed up by a shutout in his next start.

Overall, in 20 starts in 1984, Hershiser was 9-6 with a 2.19 ERA. His overall season (11-8, 2.66 ERA) was good enough for the late-blooming 25 year old rookie to finish 3rd in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, behind 19-year-old Dwight Gooden of the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies 2nd baseman Juan Samuel.

Orel Hershiser’s Breakout 1985 Season

Orel Hershiser’s sophomore campaign was nothing short of magnificent. He went 19-3 with a 2.03 ERA, which would have been good enough for a Cy Young trophy in most seasons.

1985, however, was the year of the Doctor. Gooden authored one of the best pitching seasons ever (24-4, 1.53 ERA). Meanwhile, St. Louis Cardinals’ lefty John Tudor went 21-8 with a 1.93 ERA so Orel’s superb campaign was good enough only for a 3rd place finish.

His efforts, however, were good enough to help the Dodgers win the National League West.

Hershiser and the Dodgers matched up in the NLCS against Tudor and the Cardinals. In Game 1, Fernando Valenzuela outpitched Tudor for 4-1 victory. In Game 2, Hershiser went the distance in an easy 8-2 win.

The Dodgers went back to St. Louis up 2 games to none but the Redbirds swept the three games at Busch Stadium, capped by Ozzie Smith’s dramatic walk-off home run off Tom Niedenfuer in Game 5.

Hershiser was tasked with the Game 6 start but it did not go well. The Dodgers had a 4-1 lead through 6 innings but Orel gave up two singles to start the top of the 7th. After a groundout, Willie McGee (the eventual MVP) delivered a two-run single to cut the lead to 4-3.

Lasorda then replaced Hershiser with Niedenfuer, who promptly gave up a game-tying triple to the Wizard. After Los Angeles re-took the lead, the Dodgers reliever, of course, famously gave up a 3-run blast to Jack Clark in the top of the 9th to send St. Louis to the Fall Classic.

Settling in as an Ace: 1986-1988

After the magnificent ’85 campaign, Hershiser regressed a bit in 1986. His 14-14 record was paired with a 3.80 ERA, which translates to a below average 90 ERA+.

Although his record was just 16-16 in 1987, Orel had rediscovered his ’85 form. He made his first All-Star team and posted a 3.06 ERA while leading the N.L. in 264.2 innings pitched. The season was good enough to place him 4th in the Cy Young vote.

Lasorda’s Bulldog continued his excellent pitching in 1988. Hershiser won his first 6 starts while authoring a 1.74 ERA. He was up and down in his next 20 appearances, going 10-7 with a 3.51 ERA.

The Streak

Starting with a Dodger Stadium start against the Montreal Expos on August 19, Hershiser proceeded to begin his legendary run of brilliance. He tossed a 5-hit shutout that night, followed up by a complete game 2-1 loss to the Mets.

On Tuesday, August 30, pitching in Montreal’s Olympic Stadium, Hershiser was handed a 4-0 lead by the middle of the 5th inning. In the bottom of the frame, a RBI double by Tim Raines and RBI single by Dave Martinez cut the lead to 4-2. For the rest of the game, Hershiser gave up no runs with 1 hit and 2 walks. He walked off the mound with a complete game, 4-2 victory.

With the 4 1/3 scoreless innings to close the game in Montreal, Hershiser began a streak that would not end during the regular season. Bulldog followed up the Montreal start with 5 consecutive shutouts, bringing his record to 23-8.

Hershiser’s final regular season start was on September 28 in San Diego. With 49.1 consecutive scoreless innings, Bulldog was 9 1/3 innings shy of the consecutive scoreless innings record set by another Dodger right-hander, Don Drysdale. In May and June 1968, 20 years earlier, Drysdale tossed 58 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings. It was the capstone achievement of Big D’s 14-year career.

In the bottom of the 9th inning, Hershiser got three consecutive ground balls to pull within one out of Drysdale’s record. A funny thing happened that night, however. Hershiser’s 9 innings of scoreless baseball were matched by Andy Hawkins. So the game went to the 10th inning.

Leadoff batter Marvell Wynne reached first when Hershiser uncorked a wild pitch on the third strike. After a sacrifice bunt, a groundout and intentional walk, Hershiser retired Keith Moreland on a flyball to right field to send the game to the 11th inning.

With the scoreless innings streak (at 59 1/3 frames) in hand and since the Dodgers had already clinched the N.L. West, Lasorda replaced Hershiser in the 11th inning. The Padres wound up winning in 16 innings by a 2-1 score.

All told, including the two starts before the streak began, Hershiser posted a 0.44 ERA in his last 9 starts, all complete games except for the 10-inning outing in his final effort.

Hershiser finished the campaign with a 23-8 record and a 2.26 ERA, while leading the majors with 15 complete games and 8 shutouts. He was of course rewarded with the N.L. Cy Young Award.

The 1988 Postseason

In spite of the seeming invincibility of Orel Hershiser, the 94-win Dodgers were underdogs in the NLCS to the 100-win New York Mets. The Dodgers had Hershiser and the eventual MVP Kirk Gibson but the Mets had Darryl Strawberry and five quality starting pitchers.

In Game 1 (at Dodger Stadium), Hershiser faced off against Gooden. In the first 8 innings, the Dodgers scratched out 2 runs off Gooden while Hershiser posted another 8 scoreless frames, unofficially extending his streak to 67 1/3 innings.

Gregg Jefferies led off the 9th with a ground ball single. He moved up to 2nd base on a groundout. Strawberry then delivered a double to right-center field to score Jefferies and end Orel’s streak at 67 2/3 innings.

Although Bulldog was at just 100 pitches, Lasorda decided to replace him with closer Jay Howell. After a walk and a double, future Hall of Famer Gary Carter hit a two-run double to give the Mets a 3-2 lead and, eventually, the win.

After the Dodgers won Game 2, a rainout allowed Lasorda to start Hershiser on 3 days days for Game 3 at Shea Stadium. Pitching in cold and windy weather, Hershiser gave up just one run in the first 5 innings. However, thanks in part to two fielding errors, the Mets scratched out two unearned runs against Bulldog in the 6th.

After a scoreless 7th, Orel was lifted for a pinch-hitter in the top of the 8th. The Mets went on to win 8-4, taking a 2-to-1 series lead and, most improbably, taking the two games started by Orel Hershiser.

The Pivotal Game 4

In Game 4, with a 4-2 lead and Gooden on the mound in the 9th inning, it looked like the Mets would take a decisive 3-to-1 series lead. Catcher Mike Scioscia, however, silenced the crowd at Shea with a game-tying two-run homer.

In the top of the 12th inning, Gibson previewed his future World Series heroics by hitting a solo blast off Roger McDowell to give the Dodgers a 5-4 lead.

In the bottom of the frame, the Mets loaded the bases with two outs. Lasorda did not like the matchup of left-hander Jesse Orosco (a Dodger in 1988) against Mets right-handed slugger Kevin McReynolds. Anticipating the moment, Hershiser started warming up in the bullpen.

The day after his start (thus on zero days of rest), Hershiser came into the game and, on his third pitch, got McReynolds to fly out to shallow center field to preserve the 5-4 victory.

After the teams split Game 5 and 6, Hershiser was back on the hill in the decisive Game 7, pitching on 2 days of rest. All he did was toss a 5-hit shutout, leading the Dodgers to a 6-0 win and a trip to the World Series.

The 1988 World Series

If you’re reading this piece about the Hall of Fame candidacy of Orel Hershiser, I probably don’t have to remind you what happened in Game 1 of the World Series at Dodger Stadium. Dennis Eckersley. Kirk Gibson. Remember?

Anyway, Hershiser made his Fall Classic debut in Game 2, again on 3 days of rest. Ho hum. Bulldog blanked the powerful Oakland Athletics lineup, pitching a complete game 3-hitter in L.A.’s 6-0 victory.

After the teams split the first two games in Oakland, Hershiser was on the mound for Game 5 to try to close out the series. Orel wasn’t perfect, but he was perfect enough. He tossed another complete game, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits in the Dodgers’ 5-2 win.

Fun fact: Orel Hershiser is the only starting pitcher to be on the mound for the clinching game of both the LCS and World Series for his team. For those efforts, he was named the MVP of both the NLCS and the World Series.

1989: Hershiser’s Encore

All told, in his final 15 regular and postseason outings in 1988, Orel Hershiser went 10-1 with a save and a 0.65 ERA. He won the Cy Young and the MVP Awards in both rounds of the postseason. How do you follow that up?

Well, actually, Hershiser’s 1989 campaign (on the surface) seemed rather lackluster. The Dodgers were unable to duplicate the magic of 1988 and won just 77 games.

Due to a lack of run support, Hershiser went 15-15. However, he followed up his 2.21 ERA in 1988 with a 2.31 ERA in ’89. The Bulldog didn’t finish ’89 with quite the flair as he finished ’88 but he did post a 2.05 ERA in his final 9 starts. His reward for that effort: 1 win and 7 losses. The Dodgers scored a grand total of 5 runs in those 7 losses.

Despite the deceiving Win-Loss Record, it was another excellent season for the Dodgers’ ace. His WAR was 7.2 in ’88, almost the same (7.0) in ’89. Hershiser finished just 4th in the Cy Young vote. My guess is that, if you put him up again with today’s voters, he would have captured his second straight Cy Young despite the 15-15 record.

In the 1980’s, the baseball writers were in the habit of awarding Cy Young Award trophies to relief pitchers who posted gaudy save totals. Thus, immortal Mark Davis (of the San Diego Padres) won the award on the basis of 44 saves and a 1.85 ERA (in 92.2 innings pitched).

Below, take a look at the top 7 vote-getters, ignore the wins and losses, look at the innings and ERA and ask yourself whether Hershiser was worthy of his second consecutive Cy Young:

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Either way, at the end of the ’89 season, Orel Hershiser had a career record of 98-64 (.605 WL%) with a superb 2.69 ERA.

The Second Half of Orel Hershiser’s Career

As we’ll see, any Hall of Fame case for Orel Hershiser must be made primarily on the basis of his first six full seasons. In 1990, after just four starts, the Dodgers’ ace felt stiffness in his right shoulder.

The slender Hershiser had led the National League in innings pitched for three consecutive seasons and his shoulder couldn’t take it anymore. Dr. Frank Jobe performed reconstructive surgery. Orel wouldn’t return to the mound until May 29, 1991.

From 1984-89, Hershiser had 58 complete games and 23 shutouts, both totals tops for any pitcher in the N.L. In 1991, his workload was carefully managed. His maximum pitch count was 94; he didn’t pitch past the 7th inning one time.

Hershiser resumed a full-time workload in 1992, although not quite at his 1980’s level. He also did not pitch at a level even close to his ’80’s self. In his last three years in Los Angeles (’92-’94), Orel went 28-35 with a 3.67 ERA.

Back with a Winner in Cleveland

The Dodgers decided not to re-sign Orel Hershiser after the 1994 season. The now-36-year-old signed instead with the Cleveland Indians, a team with a juggernaut lineup that needed a little rotation help. Orel settled in as the 2nd best starter on the ’95 Indians, behind 41-year-old Dennis Martinez.

The Indians won 100 games in the strike-shortened ’95 season and finished a whopping 30 games ahead of 2nd place Kansas City in the A.L. Central. Hershiser went 16-6 with a 3.87 ERA which, in the A.L., translated to a 121 ERA+ (21% above league average).

The 1995 Post-Season

Hershiser was an above-average hurler in the regular season but rediscovered something close to his ’80’s form in October. In five postseason starts, Orel went 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA. Hershiser shut down the high-powered Seattle Mariners twice in the ALCS and earned another trophy as the ALCS MVP.

In Game 1 of the World Series (against the Atlanta Braves), Hershiser matched up against future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux. After 6 innings, the game was tied at 1. In the bottom of the 7th, however, Hershiser walked the first two batters.

With Bulldog sitting at 101 pitches, manager Mike Hargrove removed him. Two relief pitchers allowed the two inherited runners to score, making Orel the hard-luck loser.

In Game 5, at Jacobs Field in Cleveland, the Tribe desperately needed a win. The Braves had won 3 of the first 4 contests.

Maddux, who was finishing what would be his fourth consecutive Cy Young campaign, was on the mound again for Atlanta, poised to deliver the clincher. It was the Bulldog, however, who out-pointed The Professor.

The signature play of the game was in the top of the 8th inning. With the Indians clinging to a 4-2 lead, Mike Mordecai led off with a single. The next batter (Marquis Grissom) hit a line drive right back to Hershiser, who snared it and then fired to first base to double off Mordecai. The Bulldog then fanned Luis Polonia, finishing up 8 innings of work in which he gave up just 2 runs (one of them unearned). the Indians held on to win 5-4.

Of course, 1995 wasn’t 1988 for Orel or his teammates. The Braves won Game 6 and the World Series two nights later.

The 1997 Post-Season

Hershiser had another decent campaign in 1996 (15-9, 4.24 ERA, 115 ERA+) but the Indians were bounced in the first round of the playoffs by the Baltimore Orioles.

Now 38 years old in 1997, Hershiser went 14-6. His ERA was an unsightly 4.47 but that was still above-average (105 ERA+) in the offense-happy late ’90’s, the height of the PED era.

In Game 1 of the ALDS, both Hershiser and New York Yankees starter David Cone failed to go 5 innings; the starters each had no-decisions in the Yanks’ 8-6 win.

Game 4 was a must-win for the Indians; New York was up 2 Games to 1. Hershiser took the hill against Dwight Gooden. With 7 innings of 2-run ball, he led the Tribe to a 3-2 victory. The Indians would win the next night to advance to the ALCS.

In the ALCS, the Indians and Baltimore Orioles split the first 2 games at Camden Yards. Game 3, in Cleveland, featured Orioles’ ace Mike Mussina against Hershiser. Moose was spectacular, pitching 7 innings of 3-hit ball while giving up just 1 run and striking out 15 batters.

The old Bulldog, however, who turned 39 years old in September, was just a bit better. Hershiser pitched 7 scoreless frames, giving up just 4 hits and a walk while fanning 7.

The Tribe would go on to win in 12 innings and wrapped up the series four days later in Baltimore.

At this time in his postseason career, Orel Hershiser had a 8-1 record and a 1.93 ERA.

Alas, the 1997 World Series did not go well for Orel. He was the starting and losing pitcher in both Games 1 and 5 against the Florida Marlins, giving up 13 runs in 10 innings. The two losses contributed to the Indians’ overall 7-game series loss to Florida.

The Final Three Years of Orel Hershiser’s Career

A free agent again, Orel Hershiser signed with the San Francisco Giants for the 1998 season. In that one season in the City by the Bay, he went 11-10 with a 4.41 ERA.

In 1999, he pitched for the New York Mets, going 13-12 with a 4.58 ERA. The ’99 Mets returned Orel to the postseason, but this time he was in the bullpen. In 3 outings, Herhiser tossed 5.1 innings of scoreless ball.

In the NLCS against the Atlanta Braves, Hershiser had one final shining October moment.

It was Game 5 at Shea Stadium, with the Mets facing elimination, starter Masato Yoshii was struggling. The first four Braves batters in the top of the 4th inning reached base, scoring two runs. With no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd base, Hershiser was summoned by manager Bobby Valentine to put out the fire. He responded with two strikeouts and a soft groundout to keep the score tied at 2. Hershiser held the Braves scoreless for another 2.1 innings in a game eventually won in 15 innings on Robin Ventura’s “grand single.”

There would be no Hollywood ending this time for Hershiser and the Mets, however. New York lost Game 6 in Atlanta and the Braves advanced to the World Series.

Now 41 years old, Hershiser returned to the Dodgers in 2000. After 10 games (6 starts), he was 1-5 with a 13.14 ERA. He was released on June 27th.

The Hall of Fame Case for Orel Hershiser

Orel Hershiser finished his 18-year MLB career with a 204-150 record (.576) and a 3.48 ERA. His ERA+ (adjusted for ballparks and league factors) was 112 (12% above average). Hershiser’s career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) was 51.6.

These numbers do not scream “Hall of Fame.” Still, in his first year on the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) ballot, Hershiser got 11.2% of the vote. The next year, he received 4.4%, falling below the 5% threshold and thus falling off all future writers’ ballots.

Now, via the “Today’s Game” Committee, Hershiser has another chance at Cooperstown. Two years ago, Hershiser was on the same ballot. He received anywhere from 0 to 4 votes while former MLB Commissioner Bud Selig and longtime General Manager John Schuerholz sailed into the Hall.

Hershiser is on the ballot this year with 5 other players (Lee Smith, Will Clark, Albert Belle, Harold Baines, Joe Carter), 3 managers (Lou Piniella, Davey Johnson, Charlie Manuel) and former Yankees owner George Steinbrenner.

Hershiser’s Peak (1984-1989)

There are essentially three planks to a Hall of Fame case for Orel Hershiser.

1. He was one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball for a six-year period of time (1984-89)
2. He is one of the greatest postseason pitchers in the LCS era (since 1969)
3. His 1988 season was one of such great legend that it elevates an otherwise borderline Cooperstown case

Let’s look first at Hershiser’s peak years. His official rookie year was 1984, which was a somewhat remarkable season for pitcher debuts. Dwight Gooden was a rookie in 1984. In the American League, Roger Clemens and Bret Saberhagen also had their maiden campaigns.

All four rookies won Cy Young Awards between 1984 and ’88 (Gooden and Saberhagen in ’85, Clemens in ’86, Hershiser in ’88). All four hurlers appeared in the World Series in those first five years, with only Clemens not being on a team that won the title.

Anyway, here are the top 6 pitchers (ranked by WAR) from 1984 to 1989:

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On this list, besides the quartet of ’84 rookies, there’s Frank Viola (who debuted in 1982) and Teddy Higuera (debuted in 1985).

Viola, like Clemens, Gooden, Hershiser and Saberhagen, won a Cy Young Award (in 1988) and appeared in the World Series (winning with the 1987 Twins).

Anyway, it’s pretty clear that the Rocket is the class of this sextet but that’s no badge of dishonor for the others. Clemens is one of the greatest pitchers of all-time.

Of the others, it’s hard to pick a 2nd best between Saberhagen, Gooden and Hershiser. I’d give Gooden and Hershiser the initial edge simply because of the history-making campaigns that each authored en route to that six-year period of brilliance. Then, if picking between Doc and Bulldog, I think you’d have to go with the guy who was a two-time MVP in his team’s postseason run to a World Series title.

The point here, for whatever its worth (still to be determined) is that Orel Hershiser was (in my opinion) at least the pitcher with the 2nd greatest impact from 1984 to 1989. And, given how superb Orel was in the 1988 playoffs and how “meh” Clemens was in 1986, you could argue that Orel is #1 for this period.

Regardless of how you rank them, I think most observers at the time would have said that five of these hurlers (not Higuera) looked like future Hall of Famers in the making. Clemens, of course, would already be there if it were not for his links to PEDs.

The Second Acts for Clemens, Hershiser, Saberhagen, Gooden, Viola

Anyway, let’s take a look at what these fabulous five did in 1990 and the years beyond. We’re leaving Higuera off the list because he didn’t even last 10 seasons, the minimum required to be considered for the Hall of Fame.

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Well, other than Clemens, we can plainly see why no Hall of Famers emerged from this quintet. By WAR, ERA or ERA+, Saberhagen had the best second act of these five.

We can plainly see that Hershiser, the leading man in this story, was merely an average pitcher after his brilliant 1989 campaign. His ERA was 4.17, his ERA+ 100 (precisely league average). Saberhagen, meanwhile, was 23% above average (with his 123 ERA+).

The difference? Saberhagen spent so much time on the disabled list that he only qualified for the ERA title four times between 1990 and 2001. In the meantime, Hershiser qualified for the ERA title in 8 of his last 9 seasons. Also, there’s his significant postseason contributions to the 1995 and ’97 Indians.

The point to this boring story is that, if you had to take a post-1990 career between Hershiser, Saberhagen, Gooden and Viola, you would take Hershiser’s.

Why Are You Still Writing? (Given Hershiser’s Post-1990 ERA of 4.17)

Obviously, we’re talking about the Hall of Fame, not “who was the 2nd best ’80’s stud in the ’90’s?”

On the surface, it would be very easy to look at Orel Hershiser’s 4.17 ERA (100 ERA+) from 1990-2000 and automatically disqualify him from Cooperstown. Allow me to point out that it is not unusual for a Hall of Fame pitcher to be merely average either early or late in their careers.

• Waite Hoyt: 82-83 (3.83 ERA/107 ERA+) in his last 10 seasons
• Red Ruffing: 70-115 (4.52 ERA/93 ERA+) in his first 8 seasons
• Early Wynn: 83-94 (3.96 ERA/92 ERA+) in his first 9 seasons
• Bob Feller: 108-79 (3.70 ERA/106 ERA+) in his last 9 seasons
• Sandy Koufax: 36-40 (4.10 ERA/100 ERA+) in his first 6 seasons
• Juan Marichal: 52-54 (3.74 ERA/99 ERA+) in his last 6 seasons
• Don Sutton: 94-81 (3.71 ERA/102 ERA+) in his last 8 seasons
• Jack Morris: 92-81 (4.48 ERA/92 ERA+) in his last 7 seasons

There will be some of who look at the last name (Morris) and say “ah hah, Bodig is trying to put another sub-standard pitcher into the Hall of Fame.”

Well, the truth of the matter is, I actually do look at the careers of Morris and Hershiser in similar ways. It’s true they both had several seasons in which they were, frankly, mediocre at best. They also both had a lot of superb seasons and, of course, were singularly responsible for World Championships of their teams.

There are some players who transcend their numbers. I always felt that Morris was one of those players (and the 2018 Veterans Committee agreed).

The Postseason

I don’t need to spend a lot of time on this. Orel Hershiser has one of the greatest postseason records in the history of baseball, certainly of the LCS era (1969 and beyond). In 22 postseason games, Orel went 8-3 with a 2.59 ERA (plus that save in 1988).

For pitchers with at least 100 postseason innings pitched, his 2.59 ERA is 7th best (behind only Mariano Rivera, Christy Mathewson, Madison Bumgarner, Curt Schilling, Jon Lester and Orlando Hernandez).

But ERA is the beginning of the explanation of a pitcher’s worth in October.

Win Probability Added (WPA)

As I’ve shared elsewhere on this site, there is a statistic called Win Probability Added (WPA) that measures clutch performance. Unlike WAR, it’s really easy to understand how this is calculated. Please enjoy the Glossary for a full explanation but the short version is as follows: every batter-pitcher match-up results in an outcome that increases one team’s chances of winning and decreases the other team’s chances.

When Kirk Gibson his his famous walk-off home run off Dennis Eckersley in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series, his WPA was 0.87. His team had a 13% chance to win the game when he entered the batters’ box. After his home run, the victorious L.A. Dodgers had a 100% chance of winning. 100 – 13 = 87. On the other side, Eckersley, on that one swing of the bat, had a negative WPA of -0.87.

As a starting pitcher, if you’re throwing a gem, you’re going to get a higher WPA if the outcome of the game is on the line than if your team is blowing out the opposition. In a scoreless or one-run game, each out has a measurable impact on the probability that your team will win. If you’re pitching in the 8th inning and your team is up 10-0, the statistical odds of a win don’t change much no matter what you do.

Here is the list of pitchers with the highest WPA since 1969:

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Borderline Candidate

OK, let’s be honest. Orel Hershiser is a borderline Hall of Fame candidate but he is a candidate nonetheless. This is the second time he has been on the Veterans Committee ballot. Two times in the last three years the Hall’s Historical Overview Committee has deemed him worthy of discussion and consideration by the 16-member panel of voters.

In order to be eligible for this ballot (which is meant to evaluate players whose primary impact was in 1988 or later), a player must have been retired for at least 15 years. So, for this ballot, a player must have retired in 2003 or earlier. Here are the final career statistics for Hershiser and other potential starting pitching candidates who were not put on this year’s ballot.

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If you go strictly by WAR, it’s easy to make an argument for David Cone, Bret Saberhagen or Chuck Finley over Hershiser. For me, Cone in particular had a significantly underrated career. If he were on the ballot with Hershiser, I’d be inclined to go with Coney.

As for Saberhagen, that’s a close call. His 2nd Cy Young campaign in 1989 (23-6, 2.16 ERA) was arguably better than what Hershiser did in 1988. But, if you were to rank “greatest pitching seasons” of the 1980’s, I would surmise any baseball historian would put Orel’s ’88 campaign ahead of Sabes’ ’89 because of the 59 1/3 scoreless innings to finish.

By the way, I’m sure you’re surprised by Saberhagen’s career postseason ERA of 4.67, given that he was the MVP of the 1985 World Series (with 18 innings of 1-run ball). It’s not a a typo. He had some real clunkers in the years that followed.

However, regarding Orel vs. Coney vs Sabes, I’m going to say here that it doesn’t matter. The Today’s Game ballot is a second chance ballot to give another look at players passed over by the historically stingy BBWAA. Cone and Saberhagen are not on the ballot. Hershiser is.

Is there Room in the Hall of Fame for a Borderline Candidate?

In a word, yes. Let me explain. The Hall of Fame, as it is currently constituted, is vastly disproportionate in its membership. There is a significant over-representation of players who primarily played between 1901 and 1950 and an under-representation of players who played in the years thereafter.

This is a breakdown of the 70 Hall of Fame pitchers by the decade in which they made their debuts:

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There are 4 enshrined Hall of Fame pitchers who made their MLB debuts in the 1980’s.  Since the 1880’s, the only decades that featured fewer enshrined pitchers have been the 1940’s, in which many years were lost for players due to the Second World War, and the 1990’s, in which several candidates remain on the BBWAA ballot.

Throughout the decade of the 1980’s there were 26 teams in Major League Baseball. From 1901 to 1960, there were just 16 teams. Yes, there’s plenty of room for more pitchers who made their debuts in the ’80’s.

You could put Clemens, Hershiser, Saberhagen and Cone into the Hall of Fame, all four of them, and you’d still have an appropriate proportional representation compared to the late 19th century and early part of the 20th century.

The Meaning of 1988

Finally, when it comes to the Hall of Fame, I’m a believer in giving enormous gobs of extra credit for historically significant seasons or postseasons. As we know, Hershiser had both in 1988.

There are two players who were uniquely responsible for the Los Angeles Dodgers World Series title in 1988, Orel Hershiser and Kirk Gibson.

If Gibson were a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, I’d be inclined to push him over the edge based on his MVP season and the Game 1 World Series walk-off homer. But Gibson is not borderline. Gibson was a career .268 hitter with 255 home runs, 870 RBI and a 38.4 WAR.

Hershiser is borderline and, to me, his 1988 season puts him over the top. It’s not just that he won the Cy Young, it’s not that he tossed 59 1/3 scoreless innings to close the season, it’s not the he was the NLCS and World Series MVP, it’s that he did all of that in the same season.

I’m not going to get hung up on the fact that his WAR was “only” 51.6 or that his ERA+ was “only” 112. Those numbers are on bottom tier of Hall of Fame starting pitchers but they’re above many of them.

Orel’s 51.6 is still higher than 12 Hall of Fame enshrined starting pitchers. His 112 ERA+ is higher than 11 hurlers with Cooperstown plaques.

By the way, for full disclosure, I do not have a dog in this hunt. I am a Mets fan. I was at Shea Stadium in 1988 when Gibson and Hershiser broke my heart in Game 4 of the NLCS.

Having gotten that out of the way, I’ll admit that Hershiser is the definition of a borderline candidate but, because of his uniquely historic ’88 campaign, he’s just above my line. For me, he’s the most qualified player on the Today’s Game ballot. I quite sure he won’t make it but he would be a credit to the Hall of Fame if he were inducted.

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