Hall of Fame Chances for Bryce Harper, Now a Postseason Star

Tonight, in the first World Series game to be played in Philadelphia since 2009, two-time Most Valuable Player Bryce Harper hit the first pitch he saw deep to right field for a two-run home run, one which propelled the Phillies to an easy win and 2-to-1 series lead over the favored Houston Astros. The 30-year-old Harper, who struggled to a .211 batting average in his first 19 career postseason games from 2012-17, has emerged as a postseason star in 2022; he’s now hit 6 home runs with 13 RBI this October and November to go along with a .382 BA.

Harper and the Phillies are fortunate to be in the postseason. As the third-place team in the National League East (with 87 wins), the Phils made the playoff party as the third Wild Card and #6 seed thanks to Major League Baseball’s newly expanded 12-team playoff system. Additionally, although Harper suffered both a torn UCL in his right elbow and a fractured thumb this year, he was able to log 426 plate appearances in 99 games thanks to the newly implemented designated hitter rule in the National League. Harper’s numbers in 2022 (.286 BA, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 145 OPS+) aren’t in the same league as those he logged in his 2021 MVP campaign (.309 BA, 35 HR, 84 RBI, 179 OPS+) but they were good enough to help the Phillies make it to the postseason.

Harper has hit six home runs this October/November, with the signature blow coming in the decisive Game 5 of the NLCS, when he clubbed a two-run homer in the bottom of the 8th against the San Diego Padres’ Robert Suarez, which turned a 3-2 deficit into a 4-3 lead and, eventually, a 4-to-1 series win and an unlikely berth in the Fall Classic.

The Phillies got off to such a slow start in 2022 (22-29 after 51 games) that manager Joe Girardi was fired. Under former bench coach Rob Thomson, however, Philadelphia caught fire, going 65-46 in their final 111 tilts despite a September swoon in which they lost 10 out of 13. Regardless of that September slump, the Phillies made it to the playoffs just in time for the team (and their superstar Harper) to get hot.

After spending the first 7 years of his career with the Washington Nationals, Harper signed a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Phillies in March 2019. Harper’s deal with Philadelphia contains a full no-trade clause but also, unlike most nine-figure deals in MLB, does not have an opt-out clause for the player. Unless Harper consents to a trade at some time in the next 9 years, he’ll be in a Phillies uniform through the year 2031. If the ’31 Phils are fortunate enough to make that season’s playoff party, Harper will turn 39 during the playoffs. He turned 30 on October 16th.

From the moment he was selected as the #1 overall pick in the 2010 draft by the Nationals, Bryce Harper was viewed as a Hall of Famer in the making. In this piece, I’ll take a look at the rollercoaster that has been the first 11 seasons of his career and how that predicts a possible Cooperstown plaque in the future.

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Cooperstown Cred: Bryce Harper (RF)

• Nationals (2012-2018), Phillies (2019-21)
• Career: .280 BA, .390 OBP, .523 SLG, 285 HR, 817 RBI
• Career: 142 OPS+, 42.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 7-time All-Star
• 2015 N.L. MVP (42 HR, 99 RBI, .330/.460/.649, 198 OPS+, 9.7 WAR)
• 2021 N.L. MVP (35 HR, 84 RBI, .309/.429/.615, 179 OPS+, 5.9 WAR)

(cover photo: Associated Press/Matt Rourke)

This piece was originally posted in March 2019. It has been updated to include his 2022 postseason performance.

Bryce Harper Career Highlights

Bryce Harper was always a little bit ahead of other players when it came to his development as a baseball player. He became eligible for the MLB player draft at the age of 17 thanks to earning a GED in October after his sophomore year at Las Vegas High School. He played for the College of Southern Nevada in the spring of 2010, hitting .443 with 31 home runs and 98 runs batted in.

A catcher in high school and his one year in Junior College, the Nationals drafted Harper as an outfielder. With Scott Boras as his agent (then and now), he signed less than one minute before the August 16th, 2010 deadline for 5 years and $9.9 million.

After playing just 130 games in the minor leagues, Harper made his MLB debut at the age of 19 on April 28, 2012, and became an instant sensation. He was an All-Star and the N.L. Rookie of the Year. He hit 22 home runs with 59 RBI, a 118 OPS+, and, thanks to terrific defense in center and right field, a 5.2 WAR. For perspective, Harper’s 5.2 WAR is the highest for a 19-year-old player in the history of baseball. His 22 home runs were second-best ever for a 19-year-old (behind Boston’s Tony Conigliaro in 1964).

Harper got off to a fast start in 2013, hitting 2 home runs on Opening Day and 10 in his first 35. On May 13th, in Los Angeles, Harper had a nasty collision with the outfield wall while chasing a fly ball, hurting his left knee. The collision didn’t sideline the young star but he aggravated the injury 13 days later on two slides and a foul ball off the knee. Harper went on the disabled list and missed the next 31 games but was still selected to start the All-Star Game at Citi Field in New York.

Besides his starting assignment in the Mid-Summer Classic, Harper was also nominated to participate in the Home Run Derby and became an even bigger star than he already was. Harper blasted 16 home runs in the first two rounds before bowing 9-to-8 in the finals to the Athletics’ Yoenis Cespedes.

In 2014, Harper’s injury bug struck again. On April 25, he tore a ligament in his left thumb when sliding into third base after a 3-run triple. The injury caused him to miss 57 games and, as it often happens with thumb injuries, impacted his effectiveness upon his return. In his last 78 games, Harper hit .268 with a .766 OPS; he clubbed just 12 home runs with 6 doubles and 23 RBI in 304 plate appearances.

Historic 2015 MVP Season

Fully healthy in 2015, Bryce Harper finally showed the form that made him one of the top-rated prospects in the history of the MLB draft. The left-handed-hitting slugger hit another Opening Day home run and then, 12 days later, hit a 461-foot blast which was the longest home run of his career.

For the season, Harper led the N.L. with 42 home runs while leading all of MLB with a .460 OBP, a .649 SLG, and 198 OPS+. These eye-popping numbers resulted in a 9.7 WAR and MVP Trophy.

In the history of baseball, there have been 38 position players in 81 different seasons that Baseball Reference credits with at least 9.7 Wins Above Replacement. That’s 81 such campaigns in 152 MLB seasons.

Only 17 of those 81 seasons of 9.7+ WAR seasons were authored by players who are not in the Hall of Fame.

• Barry Bonds did it 5 times and we all know why he isn’t in the Hall yet.
• Sammy Sosa and Alex Rodriguez each did it once and, ahem, perhaps they had some help?
• Mike Trout has done it 3 times and he’ll make it for sure when he retires.
• The other four are Harper, Al Rosen (10.2 WAR in 1953), Rico Petrocelli (10.0 in 1969), Albert Pujols (9.7 in 2009), Mookie Betts (10.7 in 2018), and Aaron Judge (10.6 in 2022).

Rosen, a third baseman, was 29 years old when he won the A.L. MVP for the Cleveland Indians in ’53; he only played three more seasons, retiring at 32 because of multiple injuries. Rosen didn’t become a full-time player until he was 26 so he only had 7 seasons as a full-time player, not enough to merit a Hall of Fame plaque.

The ’69 campaign for Petrocelli (40 HR, 97 RBI, 168 OPS+) was a true outlier. He was a shortstop at the time for the Boston Red Sox. His career highs in all of his other 12 MLB seasons were a 4.9 WAR, 123 OPS+, 29 HR, and 89 RBI.

Betts, of course, is a peer of Harper and a strong Hall of Fame candidate in his own right.

Anyway, the point of this boring story is that it is exceedingly rare for anyone but a special talent to produce the kind of season that Harper had in 2015. It’s the kind of season Hall of Famers have.

Bryce Harper’s Up and Down 2016 Campaign

Even with the lost 2014 campaign, Harper’s overall productivity in his first 4 seasons was, by WAR, the 12th best in the entire history of a baseball for a player to achieve through the end of his age 22 season.

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Almost every name on this list who is retired is a Hall of Famer or not yet eligible (A-Rod is on the ballot now on and will likely stay there for a while without getting elected due to his links to Performance Enhancing Drugs). The exception is Vada Pinson, who looked like he was Cooperstown-bound early in his career but fizzled in his 30s.

As Spring Training approached in 2016, I bet if you asked 100 baseball writers whether they felt that Bryce Harper was a future Hall of Famer, you would have gotten between 95 and 100 affirmatives.

Harper kept his brilliant hitting going with another Opening Day tater (in his first at bat) to start the 2016 campaign. His 100th career home run (on April 14th) was also his first career grand slam en route to a blistering start in which he hit .328 with 9 HR and 24 RBI in his first 19 games. After that, however, Harper went into a deep slump. The rest of the season was like a roller-coaster ride.

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It’s normal for players to go through peaks and valleys during a season but, for this campaign, Harper’s peaks were far below the standard he had set in 2015 and the first 19 games of 2016; the valleys were brutal. Overall, he hit just .231 with a .747 OPS in his final 128 games.

2017 and 2018

Bryce Harper regained his offensive form with a vengeance to start the 2017 campaign. In addition to another Opening Day tater, he hit .432 with a 1.373 OPS in his first 21 games and finished the month of April with a .391 BA to go with 9 HR and 26 RBI (in 25 contests).

He cooled off a little bit but was a candidate for another MVP trophy when, on August 12, he slipped on first base, injuring his knee. Although there was no ligament or tendon damage, he missed the next 42 games. Harper finished the season with 29 HR, 87 RBI, and a 156 OPS+.

The frustration of Bryce Harper’s career continued in 2018 when, after another hot start (8 HR, 17 RBI, 1.265 OPS in 17 games), he went into another deep slump, one that lasted 77 games, nearly half of a season, and all the way to the All-Star break.

In this slump, he hit just .194 with a .743 OPS although he still managed to swat 15 home runs. Although he acknowledged he was chasing too many pitches, Harper was also hampered by some really bad luck. His BAbip (batting average on balls in play) was just .224 (compared to .323 for the first 6 years of his career). His agent, Scott Boras, blamed excessive use of the shift, which he said had “broken the game.”

Despite the first-half slump, Harper was voted by the fans to his 6th All-Star squad. With the Mid-summer Classic being played at Nationals Park, he also participated in the Home Run Derby. To the delight of the home fans, Harper won it going away, swatting 19 home runs in the final round and 45 overall.

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Whether it was from the excitement of the Home Run Derby or just an improvement in his luck, Harper was rejuvenated after the All-Star break. In his final 65 games, he posted a slash line of .300 BA/.434 OBP/.538 SLG, helped by a much better .378 BAbip.

Harper’s Defensive Metrics

If you’re surprised by Harper’s low 1.3 WAR in 2018, it’s due to brutal defensive metrics. By FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Saved, Harper’s negative 26 was the second-worst among all MLB outfielders. Considering that all MLB clubs today have analytics departments, you can bet your last hundred million that all potential suitors were aware of this. As crazy as it sounds, the annual average salary of Harper’s deal with Philadelphia (about $25.4 million per year) does not require him to be a sterling defensive player as long as he hits.

Anyway, because Harper’s defensive numbers were fine for the first six years of his career and because defensive metrics can be misleading on a one-year basis, it’s tempting to write off 2018 as “one of those years.” However, The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh authored a damning assessment, which includes 9 video links that showed Harper not making catches on playable balls.

Remember Harper as a rookie? This was a guy who played all out all the time. Well, in the intervening years he had bad collisions with an outfield wall, an opposing third baseman, and a wet first base.

From Lindbergh’s piece, he dove 11 times and slid 17 times in 2016 and 2017; in 2018, he dove only once and slid just 4 times. In his free-agent walk year, it would be understandable if Harper decided that diving for balls would be potentially detrimental to his health and to his bank account.

Bryce Harper with the Phillies

As we’ve previously noted, Harper’s lackluster 2018 campaign didn’t stop him from getting a massive free-agent contract. He left the Nationals in the spring of 2019 to join the Philadelphia Phillies. (It was perhaps a bitter irony for Harper that his former team won the World Series later that year). Anyway, for a player who had been inconsistent for the previous several seasons, there was widespread skepticism that Harper was worth a $330 million bet.

“Bryce Harper’s contract will not end well. The Phillies know this. The rest of baseball knows this. The deal will be bad at the end. It is why more and more general managers do not want that kind of deal on their conscience.”

— Matt Gelb (The Athletic), March 4, 2019

As it so often happens when a free agent signs a massive contract, they start slowly, and so it was for Harper. He did briefly start well, though, homering in three of his first four games in a Phillies uniform; he hit .417 in his first seven games overall. His first hit (and home run) for the Phillies was a signature 465-yard blast.

But then, the valley returned. In his next 34 games, Harper slashed .180/.329/.336 with 4 HR and 20 RBI. When you sign for $330 million, you’re expected to do a bit more. For the rest of the season, he did much better, slashing .274/.373/.536 in 116 games (with 28 HR and 89 RBI). Overall, he finished with 35 HR, 114 RBI, and a 126 OPS+. More importantly, by the metrics, his defense was much better, 11 runs above average, resulting in a solid WAR of 4.5.

What was most significant about Harper’s 2019 campaign is that he remained healthy enough to play in 157 games. Harper also suited up for 58 of the Phillies’ 60 games in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign but dealt with back tightness towards the end of the season that made him unable to throw in the season’s final games. (Fortunately, this was a year that MLB had a universal designated hitter, so he was able to fill that role in his team’s final four games).

For that 2020 season, Harper slashed .268/.420/.542 (158 OPS+) with 13 HR and 33 RBI, posting a 2.0 WAR, which would extrapolate to a solid 5.4 in a full 162-game campaign.

2021: MVP & Hank Aaron Award Winner

In 2021, Bryce Harper was the 2021 N.L. MVP and was also the recipient of the Hank Aaron Award as the best hitter in the league. His statistical line certainly was worthy of those honors: in 141 games, he slashed .309/.429/.615 (179 OPS+), with 35 HR and 84 RBI. He led the majors in slugging and OPS+ and posted a 5.9 WAR.

Harper did not make the 2021 All-Star team because it was in the second half that he shined the brightest: he slashed .338/.476/.713 with 20 HR and 50 RBI in his final 73 games of the season. Although the Phillies finished with an 82-80 record (six games behind the eventual champion Atlanta Braves), Harper was the key figure who kept the team in contention until late in the campaign.

Harper became the 32nd player to win multiple MVP awards; 23 of them are in the Hall of Fame. Three of the other eight are still active (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Mike Trout). Alex Rodriguez won three MVPs and is currently on the Hall of Fame ballot. There are only four eligible players in baseball history to win two MVP Awards without eventually getting into the Hall of Fame (Roger Maris, Dale Murphy, Juan Gonzalez, and Barry Bonds).

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Bryce Harper’s Numbers Year-by-Year

Here are Bryce Harper’s career statistics year by year:

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How does Harper Rank in WAR (through his Age 29 Season)?

Hall of Fame rules require that a player play at least 10 MLB seasons to be eligible for the Hall. Having now completed his 11 seasons, Bryce Harper will at some point be eligible for the Hall of Fame ballot.

As regular readers have noticed when I assess the Cooperstown chances for active players, the most obvious tool is to compare a player’s numbers to existing Hall of Famers at the same point in their respective careers. Since Harper turned 30 on October 16th, the most relevant comparison is to look at how he’s doing compared to others through their “age 29” seasons.

Using the biggest “fame-producing” statistic (home runs), only 18 players had more than Harper’s 285 home runs through the end of their age 29 seasons. If you extrapolate his 13 taters from the 2020 season into a full campaign, he would be 14th all-time.

What does WAR say? Bryce Harper’s 42.5 WAR through his age 29 season is tied for the 73rd best for position players in the history of baseball. (Again, if we extrapolate a full campaign to account for the COVID-shortened 2020, he would have the 55th highest number). Still, let’s deal with real life for now. Who are the 72 players ahead of him?

• 54 are in the Hall of Fame (including John McGraw, elected as a manager).
• Five others besides Harper are still active: Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Manny Machado, Miguel Cabrera, and Evan Longoria.
• Albert Pujols, who just retired.
• Four will be on the 2023 Hall of Fame ballots (either Eras Committee or BBWAA): Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Scott Rolen, and Andruw Jones.
• Eight never made the Hall of Fame: Cesar Cedeno, Vada Pinson, Sherry Magee, Jim Fregosi, Bobby Bonds, Buddy Bell, Dick Allen, and Shoeless Joe Jackson, who was banned for life for his role in the 1919 Black Sox scandal. (The late Allen is a strong candidate who has fallen one vote shy of Cooperstown twice in the last eight years).

To get a rough estimate of Harper’s Hall of Fame odds, let’s look at how he fares among players within 5 WAR of his 42.5 through their age 29 seasons. I’m going to use only players who have been eligible for the Hall of Fame in this instance.

There are 65 players who achieved a WAR of between 37.5 and 47.5 who are retired and have already been eligible for the Hall of Fame.

• 43 have plaques in Cooperstown as players
• 2 are in the Hall of Fame as managers, not as players (McGraw and Joe Torre)
• 20 are not in the Hall of Fame (including Shoeless Joe)

If you exclude Shoeless Joe from the calculations, based on these numbers and the historic record, Harper’s Hall of Fame chances could be predicted as 67.2% (43 out of 64).

Remember, there are two reasons that Harper is not higher on these lists. The first is the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. The second is his poor defensive metrics. The former issue is (hopefully) one that will never be repeated. The second is an unknown. Harper only played eight games in the field in 2022 because of his torn UCL and fractured thumb; he was able to mostly stay in the lineup thanks to the newly implemented universal DH.

For these reasons, and the fact that he’s still owed over $235.8 million for the next nine years (which will keep him in the lineup unless he falls off a cliff), his odds can be estimated at closer to 85%-90% than 67.2%.

If you make another “through age 29” list, Harper is one of just 42 players in baseball history to post a WAR of 40 or more with an OPS+ of 140 or more. The only players who are retired on this list who are eligible for the Hall of Fame and who don’t have plaques in Cooperstown are Bonds, A-Rod, Shoeless Joe, Magee, and Allen. (Personally, I think it’s likely that Allen will be inducted into the Hall next month on the Golden Days Eras Committee ballot).

Which Version of Bryce Harper will we see in the Next Six-to-Nine Years?

This, of course, is the 236 million-dollar question. As we’ve already discussed, the 2015 version of Bryce Harper is an all-time great, a no-doubt Hall of Famer. The 2016 and 2018 versions, which featured prolonged slumps, were not of Cooperstown caliber. The 2021 version (179 OPS+, 5.9 WAR), if duplicated for 3 or 4 healthy seasons, would also result in a Hall of Fame plaque. Given that, barring a career-ending injury, Harper is likely to be on the field for 9 more seasons, he would only need one or two more seasons of this caliber, with some more 2019 or 2022 caliber seasons to fill in the statistical resume.

There are analysts with far more sophisticated tools than I who can more accurately predict a player’s future (Bill James, FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski), but I’m going to do some very crude hypotheticals here.

Look at it this way: let’s imagine that Bryce Harper precisely duplicates his average performance of the last three seasons over the next nine years and retires when his contract expires. In this hypothetical scenario, I’m going to presume that two out of every three of these seasons are shortened (as in 2020 and 2022) for injury-related reasons. By doing this, I’m giving credit for a huge year but also assuming that he’s going to have some rough ones.

What would his career statistics look like? To find out all we have to do is multiply his average season from 2020-22 by nine and add it to his current numbers.

Here’s the “retire after age 38 season” hypothetical:

• 73.1 WAR, 483 HR, 1,366 RBI, 2,306 hits

That’s a strong but not overwhelming resume, but one that’s enhanced by two MVPs and would be enhanced more if the Phillies were to go on to win the World Series.

Here’s another hypothetical: what if we eliminate the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign (which isn’t really fair to include as an average and just look at the two-year average of 2021-22, his MVP campaign, and DH-only season)?

•  80.3 WAR, 519 HR, 1,483 RBI, 2,531 hits

That’s better, of course, but it’s not likely that Harper will have 4 to 5 more seasons like 2021. But, also, it’s more likely than not that most upcoming years will be better than his DH-limited 2022 campaign in which he had only 426 PA.

Of course, we don’t know what Harper’s health will be like for the next nine years. We don’t know if he’ll last all of those years or will have to walk away from his $23.5-$27.5 million per year salaries. That doesn’t happen a lot (hello, Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera) but it does happen sometimes (David Wright, Dustin Pedroia).

Still, the bottom line is this: when you’ve accomplished what Harper has already accomplished by your 30th birthday, you’re way ahead of the Hall of Fame curve.

Harper already has 7 All-Star appearances and, given his popularity, will likely have several more before his career is over. He has two MVP trophies and, perhaps, a World Series ring. He has a very good chance to surpass 500 home runs. At the risk of being mocked by my future self, I think there’s an 85% to 90% chance that Bryce Harper will eventually have a plaque with his face on it in Cooperstown.

Thanks for reading. Please follow me on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

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