Hall of Fame Chances for Stephen Strasburg, Once a “Can’t Miss” Phenom

When he was 21 years old in June 2010, Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg was arguably the most ballyhooed rookie in baseball history. He was supposed to be a perennial All-Star and the headline act for the Nats for the next decade and more. He was viewed as a future Hall of Famer before throwing a single pitch in Major League Baseball.

As fate would have it, Strasburg has been a supporting cast member for virtually his entire tenure in the nation’s capital. Tommy John surgery sidelined him before he could complete his rookie campaign. In the years that followed, the soft-spoken Strasburg has been overshadowed by outfielder Bryce Harper and by another hard-throwing right-handed starter, 3-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer.

Finally, in 2019, at the age of 31, Strasburg has become the featured performer for the Washington Nationals. After years of postseason disappointments for Nationals fans involving failures by Scherzer or no-shows by Strasburg, the two aces have led Washington to a World Series Championship over the Houston Astros. The dynamic duo started two games each in Houston; the Nats won all four contests to bring the franchise its first title in its 51 year history (split between Montreal and Washington) and the first Championship for the nation’s capitol since Walter Johnson led the Senators to the 1924 World Series title.

After being an understudy to Scherzer for so many years, Strasburg was the headline act this October. He won five games in the postseason, including two in the Fall Classic, and was the deserving winner of the World Series MVP.

(cover photo: Associated Press/Mike Ehrmann)

Stephen Strasburg’s 2019 Postseason

In the Wild Card game against Milwaukee, with Washington trailing 3-1 after 5 innings, Strasburg came out of the bullpen to relieve Scherzer. In what was his first ever relief appearance in the majors, the tall right-hander threw 3 scoreless innings to earn the win and help the Nats advance to the NLDS when Washington’s bats rallied for 3 runs against Brewers’ closer Josh Hader.

Matched up against the 106-win Los Angeles Dodgers in the Division Series, the 93-win Nationals were significant underdogs. After the Dodgers easily won Game 1, Strasburg was matched up against future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw in Game 2, a virtual must-win for Washington. Strasburg outpointed Kershaw, giving up just one run in six innings (allowing only 3 hits with no walks and 10 strikeouts). He then turned over the game to the Nats’ bullpen, who protected the two run lead for an eventual 4-2 win, with Scherzer tossing a scoreless frame in the 8th.

In the decisive Game 5, Strasburg struggled early, giving up a two-run home run to the second batter of the game (Max Muncy). But the veteran gutted it out, giving up just one more run in six innings. He gave his team a chance to win, which they did when they rallied to tie the score against Kershaw (in relief), followed by a 10th inning grand slam by former Dodger Howie Kendrick.

In Game 3 of the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals, Strasburg gave up just one unearned run on 7 hits in 7 innings while striking out 12 batters without walking one. The Nats completed a four-game sweep of the Redbirds the next day.

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The 2019 World Series

In Game 2 of the World Series, Stephen Strasburg gave up a two-run home run to Alex Bregman in the first inning but held the Houston Astros scoreless for the next five frames, helping Washington to a 12-3 victory when the Nats’ bats plated 9 runs in the 7th and 8th. Last night, in the “win or go home” Game 6, Strasburg was uneven in the first inning (again) but then settled down to pitch 8.1 innings of 2-run ball, leading the Nationals to Game 7. Twice during this World Series Strasburg matched up with future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander in Houston. Twice he won.

Strasburg has now appeared in four elimination games in his brief postseason career (the first being Game 4 of the 2017 NLDS): he’s 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA with the Nationals winning all four games.

In 47 career postseason innings, Strasburg’s ERA is now 1.46. Using a minimum standard of 40 innings, only Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera, Sandy Koufax, Christy Mathewson and Eddie Plank have done better. In this postseason, Strasburg won five games, which is tied with Randy Johnson and Francisco Rodriguez for the most W’s in a single postseason. He’s also now the only hurler to win five contests in a single postseason without a single loss.

When Strasburg debuted in 2010, he was supposed to be a future Hall of Famer. Now at 31, after a myriad of injuries, he’s one of the best pitchers in the game, a World Series MVP and, once again, a possible Cooperstown inductee in the future.

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Cooperstown Cred: Stephen Strasburg (SP)

• Washington Nationals (2010-19)
• Career: 112-58 (.659 WL%), 3.17 ERA
• Career: 32.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 130 ERA+
• 3-time All-Star
• Career: 1.086 WHIP (tied for 7th best in baseball, last 100 years, min. 1,000 IP)
• 10.6 SO per 9 innings (4th best in MLB, last 100 years, min. 1,000 IP)
• 4.50 SO/BB ratio (5th best in MLB, last 100 years, min. 1,000 IP)
• Career postseason: 6-2, 55.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, 71 SO, 8 BB
• Won the 2019 World Series MVP: 2-0, 2.51 ERA, 14 SO in 14.1 IP

This article was originally posted before the NLDS. The previous sections have been updated throughout the postseason.

Stephen Strasburg: College Star Turned MLB Phenom

Stephen James Strasburg was born on July 20, 1988 in San Diego, California. Pitching for San Diego State, Strasburg became a superstar in college and, according to ESPN and Sports Illustrated, the most hyped prospect in the history of the Major League Baseball player draft. Pitching for manager Tony Gwynn (the Hall of Famer of the local Padres), Strasburg emerged as a sophomore, notably striking out 23 batters during a April 11, 2008 a home game against Utah.

 “I’ve seen a lot of baseball. I have never seen anything like that.”

— Tony Gwynn (San Diego State manager), San Diego Union-Tribune

The 23 K performance was in Strasburg’s 7th game as a starting pitcher; he had been the Aztecs’ closer the previous spring.

As a junior, his last college season before turning professional, Strasburg went 13-1 with a 1.39 ERA. In 109 innings pitched, the 6’5″ right-hander struck out 195 batters while walking just 19.

In June 2009, Strasburg was selected by the Washington Nationals as the #1 overall pick in the draft. He would make only 17 minor league starts before making his Major League Baseball debut. Strasburg’s maiden MLB outing occurred just one day after the franchise selected 17-year old Bryce Harper as the first overall pick in the 2010 draft. With the top pitching prospect ready to make his first start on baseball’s biggest stage and the top high school hitting prospect in the pipeline, the future looked bright for the Nats, even as a team that had lost 103 games the previous season.

June 8, 2010: An Opening Act to Remember

The hoopla about Stephen Strasburg’s MLB debut (against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Nationals Park) was something that the sport of baseball had never seen before. Strasburg was a superstar before throwing his first big league pitch. The buzz was dubbed “Strasmas” in the Washington media. Over 200 media credentials were distributed for this regular season game between two second-division teams.

In front of a sellout crowd at Nationals Park and with ESPN televising the game to a national TV audience, Strasburg did not disappoint. Pitching to catcher Ivan Rodriguez (who spent the last two seasons of his Hall of Fame career in Washington), Stras retired the side in order in the top of the 1st inning, getting his first career strikeout against Lastings Milledge to end the inning. In the bottom of the frame, Ryan Zimmerman hit a solo home run to give the Nats’ a 1-0 lead.

In the 2nd, Strasburg struck out the side while allowing a two-out single. After two more punch-outs in the 3rd, Strasburg gave up a two-run home run to Delwyn Young in the top of the 4th to give the Bucs a 2-1 advantage. What the 20-year old right-hander did after that, however, was the stuff that starts Hall of Fame talk for a rookie. He whiffed two Pirates batters in the 5th and then struck out the side in both the 6th and the 7th. In the meantime, the Nats scored 3 runs in the bottom of the 6th to give the rookie a 4-2 lead.

All told, Strasburg finished with 7 consecutive strikeouts and 14 for the game. He did this while allowing just 4 hits and without walking a soul. His 94-pitch, 7-inning effort was so well appreciated that he was called out for a curtain call by the crowd. Nine years later, Strasburg’s 14 K’s that day are just one shy of his career high.

Strasburg’s maiden voyage featured an array of 98-99 MPH fastballs, killer curves and change-ups. It was a magnificent unveiling, one that promised “Strasmas” for Nationals fans every five to six days. For any of the tens of thousands of Nationals’ fans in attendance or countless others watching on TV, you couldn’t blame them if they had visions of multiple Cy Young Awards, World Championships and a future Hall of Fame plaque in the young man’s future.

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Strasmas Ends Early

Stephen Strasburg won his second MLB start, a 5.1 inning, 1 run effort in Cleveland and followed that up with two starts at home in which he gave up 2 runs in 13 innings to go with 19 strikeouts and no walks. Although he continued to pitch well in his next 8 starts, he didn’t match the same level of early dominance, posting a 3.59 ERA in those 8 outings.

In his final start of 2010, in Philadelphia, Strasburg was pulled after 4.1 innings. The great fear that all fans have for their precocious pitching phenoms was realized. Strasburg had torn the ulnar collateral ligament in his golden right elbow.

A Tommy John surgery and 54 grueling weeks of rehabilitation later, Strasburg was back on the mound for the Nationals. In five September starts in 2011, he showed the dominant form of his first few outings. Although limited to just 24 innings in those starts, Stras posted a 1.50 ERA, striking out 24 while walking just 2 batters.

2012: Strasmas Ends Early Again

Before the 2012 season, the Washington Nationals’ brass decided that, in his first full year back from his UCL surgery, Stephen Strasburg would be limited to 160 innings. Considering that the Nats’ had never won more than 81 games in their seven seasons in Washington, the inning cap initially didn’t seem like a huge deal.

But this Nationals squad was one of higher quality than the nation’s capitol had seen since the Washington Senators won 99 games and the A.L. pennant in 1933. Strasburg got off to a brilliant start, going 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA in 32 innings in April, yielding “pitcher of the month” honors. He wasn’t able to maintain that level of excellence but still finished 9-4 with a 2.82 ERA in the first half of the season, resulting in his first All-Star berth.

The Nationals were in first place in the N.L. East since late May and were up by 6.5 games after the games on September 7th. It was on that day that Strasburg pitched his last game of the season. According to script, having reached 159.1 innings (with a 15-6 record and 3.16 ERA), Strasmas ended early in Washington. The National treasure was shut down for the rest of the season.

The decision to shut down Strasburg a few weeks prior to the franchise’s first playoff appearance was controversial at the time and remains so to this day. Although, at the time, Manager Davey Johnson defended the organization’s decision publicly, privately he was vehemently opposed to it.

“I felt we would have gone to the World Series with Strasburg in the rotation during the playoffs. I really don’t know how the team doctors came to the conclusion to keep Stephen under a given number of 160 innings. That was their deal, not mine.”

— Davey Johnson, Nationals manager, in his autobiography “My Wild in Baseball and Beyond” (2018)

Even without Strasburg down the stretch, the Nationals won 98 games. However, the team lost a 5-game series in the NLDS to the St. Louis Cardinals. Could Stras have helped them win one of those games? There’s no way to know but, until this year, the franchise was seemingly cursed ever since, losing in the NLDS in 4 or 5 games in subsequent seasons (2014, ’16 and ’17).

2013-2018: Injuries Continue to Plague Strasburg

In 2013, Stephen Strasburg finally qualified for the ERA title in what was his 4th MLB campaign. In 30 starts covering 183 innings, he went 9-10 with a 3.00 ERA.

It was the next year that Stras finally pitched a full season without missing a start. He led the N.L. with 34 starts and 242 strikeouts, going 14-11 with a 3.14 ERA. The Nats, under rookie manager Matt Williams, were back in the playoffs. Strasburg started Game 1 of the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants. He was the losing pitcher, going 5+ innings while giving up 2 runs. The Nats lost two of the next three contests, denying the now 26-year old Strasburg a chance to pitch in an elimination game.

From 2015 to 2018, Strasburg was frustratingly and consistently slowed down by injuries that limited him to an average of 145 IP per season. Still, when on the mound, he remained effective, going 51-22 with a 3.27 ERA. In 2016, for the second time in five seasons, Strasburg was a mere spectator while his teammates participated in the postseason. A strained flexor early in September kept him off the playoff roster in October; without him, the Nats lost in 5 Games to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In May 2016, despite only once having qualified for the ERA title twice, Strasburg was inked by Washington to a seven-year, $175 million contract extension. The deal has two opt-out clauses, one of which will be triggered at the end of the current season.

During these years, 2017 was the best season for Strasburg. In 175.1 innings, he went 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA, which was good enough to place him 3rd in the N.L. Cy Young vote behind Scherzer and Kershaw.

Strasburg was on the playoff roster in 2017 and pitched magnificently. In Game 1 of the NLDS (against the Chicago Cubs), Stras matched zeroes with Kyle Hendricks until an error by third baseman Anthony Rendon led to two unearned runs. The Nats lost 3-0. In Game 4, Strasburg out-pitched Jake Arrieta in a 5-0 victory. In 7 scoreless innings, Stras gave up just 3 hits to go with 12 strikeouts and 2 walks.

Sadly for Washington, in a wacky Game 5 that seemed to verify that both the Nationals and their manager (Dusty Baker) were perpetually cursed, the Nats lost 9-8.

2019: For the First Time, Stephen Strasburg is Washington’s Ace

Healthy again for a full regular season for the first time since 2014, Stephen Strasburg re-emerged as an ace starting pitcher for the Washington Nationals. In a season in which Scherzer was limited to just 43 innings after the All-Star Break, Stras was brilliant throughout, going 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 251 strikeouts in 209 innings, tops in the National League.

Considering the hoopla surrounding his debut, it’s ironic that it wasn’t until his 9th MLB campaign that Strasburg clearly emerged as Washington’s best starting pitcher over the course of a full season. It’s not only because he was overshadowed by Scherzer from 2015-18. He was also out-pitched in previous seasons by Jordan Zimmerman and Gio Gonzalez.

Anyway, Strasburg now has had two magnificent campaigns in the last three seasons. After finishing 3rd in the 2017 Cy Young vote, he’s a co-favorite with 2018 winner Jacob deGrom to win the trophy when it’s announced next month. The question now is, has the once “can’t miss” prospect re-emerged as a possible candidate for a future Hall of Fame plaque in Cooperstown?

Taking Stock: Strasburg’s Long Path Ahead to Cooperstown

What a wonderful story it would be if the former phenom who was felled by the dreaded Tommy John surgery at such a young age were to emerge as a Hall of Fame candidate on the basis of his performance in his 30’s.

Let’s start by acknowledging that, thanks to the years and innings lost to injury, Stephen Strasburg’s odds at the Hall of Fame are long. After 9 seasons, he has logged just 1,438.2 innings. He has done very well in those innings, going 112-58 (.659) with a 3.17 ERA (adjusted to a 130 ERA+) and 1,695 strikeouts. Stras has a great track record but, as we’ll see, 1,438.2 IP is a very low number for a 31-year old who hopes to have a plaque in Cooperstown in the future.

If you use 33 or 34 games started as a baseline for a full season of work by the standards of today’s game, injuries have cost Strasburg approximately 75 starts in his 9 MLB seasons. With an average of 6.02 innings per starts in his career, those 75 missed starts have cost him 451.1 innings. Extrapolating his career wins and strikeouts, a fully healthy Strasburg could have theoretically already had 147 wins and 2,226 punch-outs.

Of course, it’s exceedingly rare for any pitcher in baseball to be fully healthy for 9 seasons. These numbers are simply meant to show what Strasburg has potentially missed by being on the injured list.

How does Strasburg Compare to Hall of Famers of a Similar Age?

The website Baseball Reference has a wonderful tool called the “Play Index” that allows the user to create customized leader boards. One of the most useful tools when attempting to assess the Hall of Fame odds of an active player is to compare their progress at a certain age to the same progress made by those who are actually enshrined at the same age. A player’s age for a particular season is determined by their age at midnight on June 30th. Thus, since Strasburg’s birthday is on July 20th, the 2019 campaign is considered his “age 30 season” even though he is now 31 years old.

Now, with that disclaimer out of the way, how do Strasburg’s career numbers compare to all of the 66 enshrined Hall of Fame starting pitchers through their age 30 seasons?

Note: if the “ahead of” and “behind” numbers don’t add up to 66, that means Strasburg is tied with a Hall of Famer in the specified statistical category.

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Context, of course, is required for many of these statistics. Today’s pitchers, for instance, will never log the number of innings that pitchers of yesteryear posted. Strasburg led all N.L. hurlers with 209 IP in the 2019 season. Forty years ago (in 1979), that would have been good enough to finish in 22nd place. Even among pitchers of more recent vintage, Greg Maddux threw 210 or more innings 16 times. Strasburg has done it once (with 215 in 2014).

The positives here are Strasburg’s rate stats and his strikeout totals (although, again, the high number of K’s is a reflection of the way today’s game of baseball is played). Still, as we already have seen, Strasburg has the 4th best rate of SO per 9 innings, the 5th best SO/BB rate and the 7th best WHIP among all pitchers who have tossed at least 1,000 innings in the last 100 years.

Comparison to All Starting Pitchers

How do Stephen Strasburg’s current statistics compare/rank among all starting pitchers, whether they’re in Cooperstown or not?

First of all, to keep it simpler, we’ll limit this to the modern game, with pitchers who made their baseball debut in 1901 or later. Using that line of demarcation and starting with the all-encompassing statistic Wins Above Replacement, there are 50 pitchers who posted a WAR of better than Strasburg’s 32.6 through their age 30 seasons who are not in the Hall of Fame. That’s a lot, and the number includes 7 who are still active (Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels and CC Sabathia, who is retiring after the season).

Stras does much better when you compare his strikeout total compared to others since 1901 and much worse when you look at his wins; these are both a function of the times. We’ve already seen how good some of his rate stats are. Regarding his ballpark and seasonally adjusted ERA+, there are only 15 non-enshrined pitchers who debuted in 1901 or later (and logged at least 1,000 IP through their age 30 seasons) who have done better than Strasburg’s 130+.

Clearly, if there is a path for Strasburg to the Hall, he will need to maintain his superior rate stats for a significant number of years.

How Strasburg Compares to His “Generation”

In my piece about Verlander, updated recently, I introduced a concept that a pitcher’s “generation” includes those born five years before and five years after. Those are random cut-off points but it includes a full 11 birth years.

When players or pitchers are eligible for the Hall of Fame, they are compared against pitchers of years gone by but are compared more to their contemporaries. These are Strasburg’s peers. In this graphic, we’ll show these hurlers’ actual ages as of today’s date.

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If you allow your eyes to linger on this graphic for a minute or two, you’ll see how daunting a task it will be for Strasburg to emerge into the top tier of these 14 excellent starting pitchers who were born within 5 years of his birth year. If you were to ask a serious fan this simple question: “who has had a better career so far, Strephen Strasburg or X,” you’re going to go with “X” on pretty much all of them. Of the fourteen listed hurlers, the only one without either a Cy Young Award or World Series ring is Strasburg.

To round out the top 25, who is behind Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner on this WAR list of starters born between 1983 and 1993? The names will not make you giddy: Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain, Anibal Sanchez, Jose Quintana, Josh Johnson, Jake Arrieta, Gerrit Cole, Scott Kazmir, Lance Lynn, Yu Darvish, and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Do you see a potential Hall of Famer in that bunch? Cole, perhaps, based on how his career has taken off since joining the Houston Astros; he’ll finish 1st or 2nd in the A.L. Cy Young balloting to his teammate Verlander this year.

Defining a Hall of Fame Path for Stephen Strasburg

It’s quite apparent, thanks to his torn UCL and assorted other injuries in his late 20’s, that Stephen Strasburg has gone from “can’t miss” to “long shot” to potentially make the Hall of Fame.

Suppose Strasburg precisely duplicated his 2019 campaign for the next five seasons, which would take him past his 36th birthday. If he managed that, an extremely dubious proposition, at the end of the 2024 season he would have a 202-88 record (.697) with a 3.23 ERA, 2,950 strikeouts and career WAR of 64.1. If writers still care about a pitcher’s won-loss record, that would probably get it done. Again, that’s highly unlikely, especially duplicating a 18-6 record for 5 years in a row. Sustaining a .750 winning percentage for six years is something that is virtually impossible.

So, let’s try a different exercise. What if Strasburg duplicated his last three campaigns for the next six years, taking him to age 37? Remember, these three campaigns include the 2018 season, when he managed just 130 innings. To me, that’s a bit more realistic. So, it that happened, at the end of the 2025 season Strasburg’s numbers would be as follows: 196-92 (.681) with a 3.16 ERA, 2,917 strikeouts and a 63.2 WAR. Again, assuming he continued to post strong WHIPs and SO/BB numbers, those rate stats and the ERA would likely get him a plaque.

Recent Examples of Hall of Famers who did it in their 30’s

So, who are the recent Hall of Famers who built their resumes partially or primarily on what they did in their age 31 seasons and beyond (which is what Stephen Strasburg faces)?

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It’s an interesting list. Among the top five players listed, two were freaks of nature (Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan) and another (Phil Niekro) had a knuckleball that allowed him to pitch until he was 48. Besides those three, the career trajectories of Gaylord Perry, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Roy Halladay offer hope.

Conclusion

Of course, the previous graphic showed a list of some of the top starting pitchers of recent decades. They’re all in the Hall of Fame for a reason. The list of pitchers who are not in Cooperstown and who had comparable or better numbers than Stephen Strasburg’s through their respective age 30 seasons is much longer.

Remember, Strasburg currently has 112 wins, a 130 ERA+ and a 32.6 WAR.

Using pitchers from the last five decades, the list of non-enshrined starters who posted at least 100 wins, a 120 or better ERA+ and WAR of 30 or above through their age 30 seasons includes Bert Saberhagen, Johan Santana, Dave Stieb, Kevin Appier, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Tim Hudson, Jose Rijo, Andy Messersmith, Steve Rogers, Jered Weaver, John Candelaria and Bartolo Colon.

Want some better news? This is the list of pitchers who, through their age 30 seasons, managed 30+ WAR, a 120+ ERA+ and over 100 wins and also managed to do this in less than 1,500 IP. This list includes all pitchers in recorded baseball history (going back to 1871).

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This list of six offers the hope of two Hall of Famers (Carl Hubbell and Stan Coveleski) and a near-certain Hall of Famer Scherzer (Strasburg’s teammate in Washington).

Stephen Strasburg Hall of Fame odds — 33%

I’m aggressively giving Strasburg a one-third chance of eventually getting a Cooperstown plaque. He’s a little bit behind the curve but he has historically excellent rate stats at this point of his career. It’s more likely than not that, in his 30’s, he won’t be able to log the innings required to post Hall of Fame numbers but, if can stay healthy, he clearly has the talent to do it.

The biggest question right now is whether he’ll continue his quest for the Hall of Fame in a Nationals uniform or in another. He’s owed $100 million over the next four seasons but has the right to opt out and test free agency. Considering the top level at which he’s currently performing (especially in October), he can probably command more than double the $100 million he’s owed on the open market. To me, the most likely scenario is that the Nationals offer Strasburg a few extra years at a big dollar amount to extend his current deal.

Regardless of which franchise it’s for, it will be a pleasure to keep watching Stephen Strasburg on the mound for the next several years. He’s an incredible talent and now a World Series MVP.

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