Hall of Fame Eras Committee Vote Preview

Later today, at baseball’s winter meetings in Orlando, the 2022 Hall of Fame voting season officially begins when the Golden Days and Early Baseball Committees meet. The Early Baseball ballot (which, this year, features seven former Negro League players) considers players from before 1950. The Golden Days ballot considers players whose primary impact was from 1950-69. The Eras Committees are today’s version of what used to be known as the Veterans’ Committee.

Here’s how the voting works: each ballot contains the names of 10 men. The Hall has created two committees of 16 voters, each of which contains 5 to 7 Hall of Fame players, managers, or executives, a couple of media members, and a handful of baseball owners, executives, or historians who aren’t in the Hall. The 16 voters will each have the opportunity to vote for up to 4 out of the 10 candidates. To get a plaque in Cooperstown, a candidate must receive at least 12 votes (75%).

Hall of Fame enthusiasts are hoping that the committees do a better job at electing a Hall of Famer (or more) than they did the last time each of these eras was considered. In December 2014, the “Golden Era” committee pitched a shutout, with all candidates failing to get the requisite 12 votes. What made this shutout especially disappointing was that two of the candidates (Dick Allen and Tony Oliva) got 11 out of 12 votes, each falling just a single vote shy of the Hall. Jim Kaat got 10 votes on that ballot; Maury Wills got 9, Minnie Minoso 8. The vote totals for the other 5 candidates (Luis Tiant, Gil Hodges, Ken Boyer, Billy Pierce, and Bob Howsam) were listed at “3 or fewer.”

Ten Candidates for the Hall: the Golden Days Ballot

Eight of those ten candidates from 2015 (Allen, Oliva, Kaat, Minoso, Wills, Hodges, Boyer, and Pierce) are on the 2022 Golden Days ballot. They’re joined this year by Roger Maris, who broke Babe Ruth’s home run record in 1961, and Danny Murtaugh, who managed the Pittsburgh Pirates to two World Series titles.

I have written full profiles of all ten candidates who are on this ballot. Please enjoy the following links to learn more about their careers and the worthiness of their Cooperstown cases:

Early Baseball Ballot

A year after the “Golden Era” shutout of December 2014, another committee (known then as the “Pre-Integration” Committee) was conferred to consider players and others from before 1947. Again, the committee failed to elect a single Hall of Famer. Pioneer Doc Adams got the most votes (with 10), while players Bill Dahlen and Harry Stovey got 8 votes each. The other candidates were listed as “3 or fewer.”

As most baseball fans know, this is the year in which Major League Baseball officially recognized most of the Negro Leagues as legitimate Major Leagues. There are hundreds of new profiles on Baseball-Reference in which the known statistics of these legends of yesteryear have been brought to life. As a result, the Hall put a heavy emphasis on including Negro League players on the 2022 Early Baseball ballot. Seven of the ten candidates on the ballot played in the Negro Leagues or the pre-Negro Leagues.

It’s important to note, however, that the statistical records of the Negro League candidates are incomplete, especially prior to 1920. Thus, the seven Negro League candidates are difficult to evaluate through traditional statistical comparative analysis. Fortunately, the Hall of Fame stacked the Early Baseball Committee with five baseball historians, including four (Gary Ashwill, Adrian Burgos Jr., Leslie Heaphy, and Justice Hill) who have specialized in the history of the Negro Leagues. The fifth is John Thorn, Major League Baseball’s official historian and a man who knows as much about baseball history as any living human being.

A note to my regular readers: due to time limitations, I was unable to write individual profiles/analyses of the ten candidates for the Hall of Fame on the Early Baseball ballot. What follows is a capsule look at each of the ten candidates. I’ve also provided links to more detailed biographies (through the SABR bio project) and (where available) links to Jay Jaffe’s and Shakeia Taylor’s profiles of the candidates on FanGraphs.

Cooperstown Cred: Bill Dahlen

Chicago Colts (1891-97), Chicago Orphans (1898), Brooklyn Superbas (1899-1903, 1910), New York Giants (1904-07), Boston Doves (1908-09), Brooklyn Dodgers (1911)
Career: .272 BA/.352 OBP/.382 SLG, 84 HR, 1,234 RBI
Career: 1,590 Runs, 548 SB, 2,461 Hits
Career: 110 OPS+, 75.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
Scored over 100 runs in the first six seasons of his career
Was 1st or 2nd in fielding% for shortstops seven times in his career

Bad Bill Dahlen is arguably the best position player candidate from before 1950 who is not already enshrined in Cooperstown and the only returning candidate from the 2016 Pre-Integration Hall of Fame ballot. Dahlen spent his entire career in the National League, playing for teams that would later be known as the Cubs, Braves, and Dodgers. His nickname “Bad Bill” is a result of his fiery temper, which resulted in him being ejected from 34 games during his playing career.

Dahlen was a 21-year-old rookie third baseman in 1891 for Cap Anson’s Chicago Colts. He was moved to shortstop for the 1892 campaign and would man that position almost exclusively for the rest of his career.

The National League moved the pitching mound from 50 feet to 60 feet in 1894, leading to exploding offensive numbers throughout the league. Dahlen hit over .350 twice after the change (.359 in 1894, .352 in 1896). Also in ’94, Dahlen had a 42-game hitting streak, a mark only passed in later decades by Willie Keeler, Joe DiMaggio, and Pete Rose. Dahlen also hit in 28 straight games after his streak ended, meaning that he got a hit in 70 out of 71 games.

After eight years in Chicago, Dahlen spent four seasons with the Brooklyn Superbas, who would later be known as the Dodgers. In Brooklyn, Dahlen played for future Hall of Fame manager Ned Hanlon and with several Hall of Fame players (Keeler, Joe Kelley, Hughie Jennings, and Joe McGinnity).

Dahlen was traded to the New York Giants after the 1903 season, with Hall of Fame skipper John McGraw later calling the deal the “best trade he ever made.” The 1904 Giants, led by 30-game winners Christy Mathewson and McGinnity, won the National League pennant with 106 wins. Dahlen had the most RBI (80) and highest WAR for position players (5.2) on the ’04 Giants, who didn’t participate in the World Series against the Boston Americans because McGraw and team owner John Brush didn’t want to. The Giants won 105 games in 1905 and, this time, did participate in the Fall Classic, winning a 5-game series win over the Philadelphia Athletics (with Dahlen going 0 for 15).

After the 1907 season, Dahlen was traded to the Boston Doves (later known as the Braves), where he spent the last two full-time seasons of his MLB career. Dahlen was a player-manager in Brooklyn for the 1910-11 seasons (he only appeared in four games on the field) before being solely the team’s manager in 1912-13. Dahlen’s four-year record as an MLB skipper was 251-355 (.414).

As a Hall of Fame candidate, Dahlen is an easy “yes.” An excellent defensive shortstop, Dahlen collected 2,461 hits in his 21-year National League career (1891-1911). By modern metrics, his career WAR (per Baseball-Reference) was 75.2. The only position players in baseball history with a higher WAR who are not in the Hall are either tainted by scandal (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Pete Rose) or not yet eligible (Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout).

You don’t need WAR, however, to make the case for Bad Bill for Cooperstown. He has the 2nd most putouts (4,856) and 4th most assists (7,505) for all shortstops in Major League Baseball History. His superb defensive record is matched by being a strong offensive shortstop, with 2,461 hits and a .352 on-base%.

In all of baseball history, there are only three shortstops who have scored and driven in over 1,200 runs, stolen over 400 bases, and collected over 2,000 hits. The three are Bill Dahlen, Honus Wagner and George Davis (the latter two men being Hall of Famers). By WAR, Dahlen was the third-best shortstop of the first 50 years of recorded baseball history (1871-1920), behind only Wagner and Davis. Additionally, he is behind only Wagner and Davis in total RBI, hits, and SB among shortstops from 1871-20. Only Wagner scored more runs as a shortstop during these five decades.

Dahlen is a long-overdue selection for Cooperstown.

Bill Dahlen links:

SABR Bio

Jay Jaffe’s FanGraphs profile

Cooperstown Cred: Buck O’Neil (1B)

Because the statistical record for the Negro League players is incomplete, regular readers will notice that the typical “bullet-point” listing of the players’ “Cooperstown Cred” is missing for the next seven candidates.

I had the great privilege of meeting Buck O’Neil when he was a guest on ESPN’s Up Close show in the late 1990s (I was the show’s coordinating producer). O’Neil, one of the great ambassadors to the Negro Leagues, was also one of the best storytellers one could ever meet. He was a three-time All-Star as a player and had a long post-playing career as a scout and coach. He’s also one of the founders of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum in Kansas City.

In 2006, the Hall of Fame elected 17 former Negro League players, pioneers, and/or executives. All 17 of these inductees had been deceased for a decade or longer. Inexplicably, Buck O’Neil (still alive at 94 years old) was left out of the group. If he had joined the other 17 and been conferred a Cooperstown plaque, it would have greatly enhanced that day. Alas, O’Neil fell short of the Hall by one measly vote. Buck passed away in November 2006.

A couple of years later, clearly recognizing the oversight, the Hall honored O’Neil by creating the Buck O’Neil Lifetime Achievement Award. Quoting from the press release, “a permanent, life-size bronze statue of O’Neil was dedicated in the Museum in 2008 accompanied by a list of award recipients and a plaque to educate Museum visitors about Buck’s contributions to the game.

When I made my most recent visit to the Hall a few years ago, it was immediately obvious that the placement of this statue was meant to highlight O’Neil’s legacy in a way that no baseball fan could miss.

O’Neil spent the majority of his professional career with the Kansas City Monarchs. O’Neil spent nine years with the Monarchs (interrupted by three years serving in the U.S. Navy). The Monarchs won four straight Negro American League (NAL) pennants from 1939-42. In the ’42 Negro World Series, O’Neil slashed .353/.421/.588 with 6 RBI (in a 4-game sweep over the Homestead Grays). He was the player-manager for the 1948 Monarchs, leading them to the NAL Championship (in which they lost to the Birmingham Black Barons).

Later in his professional baseball life, O’Neil spent decades as a scout for the Chicago Cubs, signing Lee Smith, Joe Carter, and many others.

As previously noted, O’Neil was one of the greatest storytellers in baseball history. On Ken Burns’ Baseball series for PBS, O’Neil’s words literally brought the Negro Leagues to life. Like any good raconteur, Buck was known to throw in a bit of hyperbole. On the Up Close interview by Gary Miller (on the day I met him), when asked for a general description of the talent of one of his best teams, O’Neil, with a big smile on his face, said “it was like having a team of nine Rickey Hendersons.”

As a player, O’Neil was probably not better than the other six candidates from the Negro Leagues on this Early Baseball Hall of Fame ballot but he’s the one man who absolutely should be selected. O’Neil, as the longtime living face of the Negro Leagues, is too important to the history of baseball to not have a plaque in Cooperstown along with the game’s greatest legends. In some cases, the word “fame” in the Hall of Fame needs to be taken literally. The case of Buck O’Neil is one of those cases.

“All his life, Buck O’Neil has had doors slammed in his face. He played baseball at a time when the major leagues did not allow black players. He was a gifted manager at a time when major league owners would not even think of having an African-American lead their teams. For more than 30 years, he told stories about Negro League players and nobody wanted to listen. Now, after everything, he was being told that the life he had spent in baseball was not worthy of the Hall of Fame. It was enough to make those around him cry. But Buck laughed. O’Neil simply said, ‘That’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m still Buck. Look at me. I’ve lived a good life. I’m still living a good life. Nothing has changed for me.’”

— Joe Posnanski (Kansas City Star, Feb 28, 2006)

Buck O’Neil links:

SABR bio

Shakeia Taylor’s FanGraphs Profile

Cooperstown Cred: Bud Fowler (2B & SP)

Bud Fowler is the first known African-American professional baseball player. Fowler was born with the name John W. Jackson, Jr. in 1858, but started calling himself “Bud Fowler” as a professional in 1878.

It’s ironic that Fowler spent much of his childhood growing up in Cooperstown, New York, but he has yet to be recognized with a plaque in the shrine that exists today in that town. Fowler pitched and played second base in more than a dozen leagues throughout his career, which reportedly spanned 27 years (from 1878 to 1904). By his own count, Fowler played in 22 different states plus Canada. Fowler played on several integrated teams before the color line was fully entrenched but frequently had to leave those teams and move on to another because of the objections of teammates or opponents to the color of his skin.

In 2013, MLB historian John Thorn said, “Bud Fowler is of extraordinary importance on a national scale. Many would argue he should be in the Hall of Fame or should have been long ago.” Thorn is on the Early Baseball Committee considering Fowler and the 9 other candidates.

“We don’t have anything close to full statistics for Fowler’s career, but judging him solely on the merits of those numbers — which cast him as a high-average speedster and flashy fielder who must have been quite entertaining to watch — isn’t the point. By the wide consensus of experts, he was of major league star caliber, too skilled for the tastes of the less open-minded white players he encountered. He pioneered the use of shin guards, all the more necessary given the potential for opponents to attempt to injure him, and claimed numerous firsts starting with his status as the first Black professional player. His barnstorming model helped to lay the groundwork for the survival of Black baseball. Above all, he persevered throughout a three-decade quest to secure a place for Black baseball players and Black teams within the national pastime.”

— Jay Jaffe (FanGraphs, December 1, 2021)

In terms of his career value as a player, as Jaffe pointed out, Fowler is difficult to assess. He might be a better candidate in the “pioneer” rather than the “player” category. However, given Thorn’s presence on the committee and his on-the-record statement about Fowler’s importance in baseball history, his candidacy will be strongly considered.

Bud Fowler links:

SABR bio

Jay Jaffe’s FanGraphs Profile

Embed from Getty Images

Cooperstown Cred: John Donaldson (SP)

Based on the research of Peter Gorton, John Donaldson had 413 verified wins and 5,091 verified strikeouts in his long pitching career. He reportedly tossed 14 no-hitters as well.

Donaldson was born in 1891 and, therefore, spent his prime years in the pre Negro Leagues (the statistics for these leagues are not available on Baseball-Reference) before the founding of the official Negro National League in 1920. Donaldson was known for his curve, thrown like a slider and as hard as his fastball.

From the Chicago Defender and the Sporting Life, the left-handed throwing Donaldson put up some ridiculous numbers in his 20’s, pitching for J.L. Wilkinson’s barnstorming team known as “All Nations.” In both 1913 and 1914, he pitched over 100 consecutive shutout innings. In 1915 he pitched 30 consecutive innings of no-hit ball. He has 2,332 verified strikeouts for those years. Additionally, Donaldson pitched seven of his 14 documented no-hitters between 1912 and 1917. In 1918, Donaldson pitched for the Indianapolis ABCs and the Brooklyn Royal Giants and with the Detroit Stars in 1919.

Rube Foster, Wilkinson, and six others founded the Negro National League in 1920. Donaldson pitched (and played center field) for the Kansas City Monarchs in 1920 and ’21. He is credited with coming up with the team’s name. He spent most of the rest of his career (pitching into his 40s) with barnstorming teams because they paid him better.

As a Hall of Fame candidate, one can’t take Donaldson’s 413 verified wins or 5,091 verified strikeouts at face value because he spent so much of his career pitching against inferior competition. Peter Gorton, who made it his life’s work to reconstruct Donaldson’s career as the creator of the John Donaldson network, acknowledged as much.

“He was dominating a lot of farmers, let’s face it. But you have to remember, this is what segregation was. Segregation was push ’em out and get ’em out as far away as possible, and that meant some strange and out-of-the-way places where there weren’t Major Leaguers… He ended up playing in 683 different cities that we’ve found so far. The reason that nobody knows much about him today, is that his career was scattered all over the place. If he had spent 15 years with the Pittsburgh Crawfords or any other Negro League franchise, people could pretty much ascertain that’s where he was. But this guy was all over the place.

— Peter Gorton (mlb.com, February 15, 2020)

Still, at the time, there was an awareness of Donaldson’s skill. In 1915, John McGraw was quoted as saying “If Donaldson were a white man. I would give $50,000 for him.” In 1948, J.L. Wilkinson was quoted as saying that Donaldson was “the greatest pitcher that ever threw a baseball.”

Donaldson feels like a worthy Hall of Famer to me.

John Donaldson links:

SABR bio

Jay Jaffe’s FanGraphs Profile

Dick “Cannonball” Redding (SP)

Dick “Cannonball” Redding was regarded as perhaps the fastest pitcher in Negro Leagues’ history, hurling for teams such as the New York Lincoln Giants, Chicago American Giants, and the Brooklyn Royal Giants. He’s credited with throwing at least 30 no-hitters, with seven coming with the Giants in 1912, a year that he had a reported record of 43-12.

Born in 1890, Redding was a huge man for the era, standing at 6’4″ (some sources report him as 6’1″) and weighing between 210 and 240 pounds. Redding got the nickname “Cannonball” because he threw as hard as anyone in baseball history at the time. He pitched for at least 15 championship teams and more than held his own on the rare opportunity he got to pitch against white major leaguers. He once struck out Babe Ruth three times in an exhibition game.

Like Donaldson, Redding spent his best years before the official debut of the Negro Leagues in 1920 and so the statistical record on him is incomplete.

In 1971, when the Hall of Fame and Major League Baseball announced the formation of a special committee to select former Negro League players, Casey Stengel was quoted in the New York Daily News, saying “You can have Satchel Paige; I’ll take Cannonball Redding.”

“Redding, while not a slam-dunk, would be in good company if he’s elected. Throw in the more subjective factors — the championships, critical assessments of his value relative to his peers, word of mouth, the fame — and it seems quite clear he belongs.”

— Jay Jaffe (FanGraphs, December 3, 2021)

Dick Redding links:

SABR Bio

Jay Jaffe’s FanGraphs Profile

Cooperstown Cred: Grant “Home Run” Johnson (2B/SS)

Grant “Home Run” Johnson is another Hall of Fame candidate who played before the official Negro Leagues debuted in 1920. Born in 1872, Johnson was a slugging middle infielder who played from 1894 to 1914. Johnson was a line-drive, contact hitter. Since he played in the deadball era, his home runs were not numerous but they impressed enough for him to get the nickname, much like Frank “Home Run” Baker of the Philadelphia Athletics in the same era.

Johnson helped form the Page Fence Giants barnstorming team and also played for early powerhouse teams like the Brooklyn Royal Giants and New York Lincoln Giants. Johnson was primarily a shortstop but moved to second base mid-career to create a powerhouse double-play duo with Hall of Famer John Henry “Pop” Lloyd.

The data on the Seamheads website, which contains Johnson’s statistics against pre Negro Leagues black competition as well as Latin leagues and exhibitions against major leaguers, credits him with a .310 BA, .396 OBP, and .399 SLG, translating into a 158 OPS+.

Baseball Hall of Fame historian Jay Jaffe has compared Johnson to luminaries such as Alan Trammell and (on the same ballot today) Bill Dahlen.

“Properly understood, the statistics that we have suggest Johnson is of Hall caliber. So does his penchant for turning up on championship teams (including some of the major dynamos of the day), his reputation for leadership and professionalism as a captain or manager (he won seven championships in that capacity), and his status as a star who was highly sought by the very best teams of his era. The weight of the evidence suggests he’s Hallworthy.”

— Jay Jaffe (FanGraphs, December 2, 2021)

Interestingly, Negro Leagues historian Gary Ashwill (who is a voting member of the Early Baseball Committee) has called Johnson the best everyday African-American player from 1894-1909.

SABR Bio

Jay Jaffe’s FanGraphs Profile

Cooperstown Cred: George “Tubby” Scales (2B/3B)

Geroge Scales is a Hall of Fame candidate for whom a more significant statistical record is available. From 1920-1946, Scales played for six different teams in four different Negro Major Leagues. Scales compiled a .319 BA and .421 OBP, with Baseball-Reference crediting him with an OPS+ of 147, a terrific number for an infielder. Scales also managed for six seasons in the Negro Leagues and 12 seasons in the Puerto Rican Winter League, leading the Santurce Cangrejeros to the Caribbean World Series title in 1951.

“They called him Tubby — Tubby Scales — which pretty much tells you that it was George Scales’ lot in life to be underrated and underappreciated. In leagues of bigger-than-life nicknames (Cool Papa Bell, Home Run Johnson, Mule Suttles, Bullet Rogan, the Devil Willie Wells), tubby Scales leaves a, well, less majestic impression. But Tubby Scales could really hit. Buck Leonard said he was the best curveball hitter he ever saw, high praise from a player many considered the best fastball hitter in the Negro leagues.”

— Joe Posnanski (JoeBlogs, November 12, 2021)

Scales may be the best second baseman ever to play in the Negro Leagues. It’s a position that hasn’t been recognized yet by the Hall of Fame among Negro Leaguers. The dearth of second basemen is so complete that on the Field of Legends at the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, the second baseman is Pop Lloyd, who was a shortstop and arguably the best to ever play that position.

Scales seems to have a strong Hall of Fame case but the Eras Committee is a numbers game. With the 16 voters limited to four selections out of ten candidates, it’s hard to see Scales making the cut.

George Scales links:

SABR Bio

Shakeia Taylor’s FanGraphs Profile

Cooperstown Cred: Vic Harris (LF)

Vic Harris, a left-handed hitting left fielder, played from 1922 to 1947, mostly with the Homestead Grays (near Pittsburgh) in the Negro National League. Harris became player-manager of the Grays in 1935 and won eight pennants. He was manager of the 1948 Grays, who won the last Negro Leagues World Series.

Vicious Vic, who earned the nickname for his penchant for violence on and off the field, slashed .310/.372/.427 in 25 seasons, spanning 3,342 recorded plate appearances per his Baseball-Reference profile.

As a member of the 1931 Grays, he was a part of what is considered one of the greatest teams in the history of baseball. That team included Hall of Famers Josh Gibson, Oscar Charleston, Jud Wilson, Bill Foster, and Smokey Joe Williams, as well as Tubby Scales, Ted Page, and Ted “Double Duty” Radcliffe.

From what I can glean, Harris is a strong candidate for Cooperstown but not one of the four best choices on this 10-man ballot.

Vic Harris links:

SABR Bio

Jay Jaffe’s FanGraphs Profile

Besides Bill Dahlen, there are two other candidates for the Early Baseball Hall of Fame ballot from the National and American Leagues, Lefty O’Doul and Allie Reynolds.

Cooperstown Cred: Lefty O’Doul (LF)

Yankees (1919-20, ’22), Red Sox (1923), Giants (1928), Phillies (1929-30), Dodgers (1931-33), Giants (1933-34)
Career: .349 BA/.413 OBP/.532 SLG, 113 HR, 542 RBI, 1,140 Hits (in 3,660 MLB plate appearances)
Career: 143 OPS+, 27.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
1929 N.L. MVP runner-up: .398 BA, 32 HR, 122 RBI, 254 Hits
3rd in 1932 N.L. MVP vote: .368 BA, 21 HR, 90 RBI, 219 Hits

Considering that he only logged 3,660 plate appearances in Major League Baseball, Francis Joseph “Lefty” O’Doul did reasonably well on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, topping out at 16.7% in 1960.

From 1919-27, O’Doul only had 78 MLB plate appearances. He spent most of his 20’s in the Pacific Coast League (posting a .351 BA in 3,259 minor league PA). O’Doul didn’t become a full-time player in the majors until he was 31 years old, in 1928.

O’Doul won two N.L. batting titles (in 1929 and 1932). His .349 career batting average is the 6th best in baseball history for players with at least 3,000 career plate appearances.

As a candidate, the committee may also consider that he won over 2,000 games as a manager in the Pacific Coast League and his role in developing the game of baseball in Japan. O’Doul is credited as one of the founders of Nippon Professional Baseball and was the first American elected to the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame.

“Lefty O’Doul is a perfect example of the Hall of Fame being whatever the voters want it to be. When you look at the full circumference of his career — a holistic view as college recruiters like to say — you see an extraordinary baseball life. He was for four or so years one of the truly great hitters in baseball. He was a beloved and influential minor league manager. He probably played a bigger role in developing Japan’s love for baseball than anyone outside of Japan (they called him “Banzai O’Doul” for his fierce spirit). He was a glorious storyteller and a larger-than-life character.”

— Joe Posnanski (JoeBlogs, November 17th, 2021)

Is that enough to put O’Doul in the Hall of Fame? Not in my view. And, on this ballot with Dahlen and so many previously overlooked Negro League players, I doubt O’Doul will get much traction.

Lefty O’Doul links:

SABR Bio

Jay Jaffe’s FanGraphs profile

Allie Reynolds (SP/RP)

Cleveland Indians (1942-46), New York Yankees (1947-54)
Career: 182-107 (.630 WL%), 3.30 ERA, 1,423 SO in 2,492.1 IP
Career: 109 ERA+, 25.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
Career postseason: 7-2, 2.79 ERA, 4 Saves
Pitched two no-hitters
2nd in 1952 A.L. MVP voting: 20-8, 2.06 ERA, 24 CG, 6 shutouts
5-time A.L. All-Star

I wrote quite a bit about Reynolds, one of the great World Series performers of all time, four years ago when I did a series about the history of relief pitching. Although his regular-season resume is a bit lacking (182 wins, 25.7 WAR) Reynolds won six World Series titles with the New York Yankees from 1947-53, going 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA. Partly native American, Reynolds was known as Superchief. He was a true swingman who also closed out four Fall Classic games (getting what we would now call saves). His contributions to the 1949, ’50, and ’52 titles were indispensable.

If there were a “Hall for the Fall,” Reynolds would be a leading candidate, given his prowess in the World Series.

Even though he was primarily a starting pitcher, Allie Reynolds is tied for the third most saves in World Series history (behind Mariano Rivera and Rollie Fingers) with four World Series saves.
Reynolds is tied for 2nd place (behind Whitey Ford) in all-time wins for a World Series pitcher with 7 (he’s tied with Bob Gibson and another Yankee, Red Ruffing).
Reynolds 62 World Series strikeouts is the third most ever (to Ford and Gibson).

On the 2009 Veterans Committee ballot, Reynolds got 8 out of 12 votes, putting him a mere one vote shy of a plaque in Cooperstown. However, this ballot is much deeper in talent and there will be a natural inclination to try to elect one or two Negro League players. I doubt Reynolds will get any support this time around.

Allie Reynolds links:

SABR Bio

Jay Jaffe’s FanGraphs Profile

Embed from Getty Images

Conclusion: Who’s Getting Elected Today?

To wrap up, it’s time to predict who’s getting into the Hall of Fame later today. Hopefully, each of the committees voting will elect at least one (preferably two or more) Hall of Famers. Remember, the last time previous committees considered players from these eras, nobody made the 75% cut.

I doubt that anybody participating on these committees wants to be involved in another shutout. We can expect (and hope for) some vote-counting by the committee members.

So, my predictions are as follows:

On the Golden Days ballot, Dick Allen will be elected to the Hall of Fame. Allen will have a strong advocate in Mike Schmidt, who is on the committee. Additionally, Allen has two other teammates (Fergie Jenkins and Joe Torre) on the committee. Allen came so close to Cooperstown seven years ago (one vote short), he’s had a strong public relations campaign on his behalf, and he has the perfect “elevator pitch” in that he had the highest OPS+ in all of Major League Baseball for 11 years (1964-74).

I also predict that either Jim Kaat or Tony Oliva (but not both) will get the Hall call. Given that every voter is limited to four “yes” votes out of ten candidates and that a player needs to get 75% (12 out of 16) to get elected to the Hall, the math is hard for anyone to get elected. To elect more than two candidates would require the voters to coalesce in a way that’s statistically unlikely.

I’d love to see Minnie Minoso get the call today but I’m guessing there will be a stronger sentiment to “honor the living” (Kaat and Oliva are still with us on this earth). Still, there does seem to be momentum behind Minoso’s candidacy. If you Google “Minnie Minoso Hall of Fame,” there are several pieces (including mine) advocating for his induction; the same is true for Allen. If you do the same Google search for Kaat or Oliva, you don’t get as much.

I am quite certain that the “big four” on this ballot will be the names I’ve mentioned already (Allen, Kaat, Oliva, Minoso). Based on his nine votes last time, Maury Wills should have some support as well (it helps him that longtime Dodgers broadcaster Jaime Jarrin is on the committee) but I feel like he’ll be the kid in the game of musical chairs that doesn’t have a seat when the music stops.

The other candidates (Ken Boyer, Gil Hodges, Billy Pierce, Roger Maris, and Danny Murtaugh) may get a vote or two but I doubt any will have enough for the Hall to report their tallies. For Hodges fans, it will be the 35th time he’s been on a Hall of Fame ballot without getting elected.

My personal choices would be Allen, Minoso, Kaat, and Boyer. However, if I sensed a lot of Oliva voters (and very few for Boyer), I’d flip to Oliva to help him get that Hall call.

Early Baseball Predictions

As for the Early Baseball ballot, I will go with the easy prediction, that Buck O’Neil and Bill Dahlen will be elected. But this is really just a guess. Dahlen is an easy choice due to his high 75.2 WAR but he was also an easy choice six years ago and only got 8 out of 16 votes. As for O’Neil, if the committee had its normal configuration of baseball executives, one or two media members, and seven Hall of Famers, I would consider him a shoo-in due to his name recognition. However, the presence of five historians on the committee (including four who specialize in the Negro Leagues) is a wild card that makes the result hard to predict. Will they make the case for players such as Cannonball Redding, Home Run Johnson, Josh Donaldson, and Bud Fowler for having a greater impact than O’Neil as players? This could involve a split vote, resulting in nobody getting elected. Another shutout would be a PR disaster for the Hall of Fame but it’s entirely possible that it will happen.

Besides the five historians (John Thorn, Adiran Burjos Jr., Leslie Heaphy, Gary Ashwill, and Justice Hill) and the Elias Sports Bureau’s Steve Hirdt, the committee members include five Hall of Famers (Fergie Jenkins, Ozzie Smith, Bert Blyleven, Joe Torre, and John Schuerholz), two media members (Rick Hummell and Jim Hennemann), and three MLB executives (Tony Reagins, Bill DeWitt, and Ken Kendrick). It’s likely that the Hall of Famers and executives will lean heavily on the opinions of the historians. Remember, Thorn is on record saying the Fowler deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. If his voice is the most powerful, that could be helpful for the candidacy of the 19th-century pioneer.

Although it’s quite obvious to me that Dahlen belongs in Cooperstown, it wouldn’t shock me if there is an overwhelming sentiment in the room to choose from the Negro League players and leave Bad Bill on the sidelines again.

I will admit that I really don’t feel qualified to choose the four best candidates on the Early Baseball ballot. I simply don’t know enough about the Negro League candidates. But, oh, would I love to be in the room and hear the thoughts about those candidates from those historians, who are the true experts. Despite not feeling qualified, here are the four that I would choose, based on what I’ve read: Bill Dahlen, Buck O’Neil, John Donaldson, and Dick “Cannonball” Redding, with Grant “Home Run” Johnson and Bud Fowler tough cuts outside my top four.

Anyway, what I hope for beyond “who makes it” is that multiple players get elected. I’m hoping for at least two candidates from each ballot. My guess is that the committee members will try their best to make that happen.

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