Don’t Hate, Celebrate: Harold Baines is in the Hall of Fame

Sunday night, in a stunning moment, Jeff Idelson, the President of the Baseball Hall of Fame, announced on the MLB Network that Harold Baines had been elected by the Today’s Game Committee to receive a plaque in Cooperstown.

Moments later, Idelson announced that Lee Smith, a long-time closer who saved 478 games, had also been elected to the Hall. The selection of Smith (who got 16 out 16 possible votes by the committee) was widely expected.

The selection of Baines, the longtime designated hitter for the White Sox, Rangers, Athletics, Orioles and Indians?

“Very shocked,” the former #1 overall draft pick said on a conference call. Baines made the Hall “on the number,” getting 12 out of 16 votes (exactly 75%, the minimum required for election). Longtime manager Lou Piniella finished 11 votes, one vote shy of the minimum.

To those who study modern metrics, the election of Baines to the Hall is head-scratching. He had a career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 38.7 and a career OPS+ of 121. These are very low numbers, well below the modern standard for an offense-only player (Baines was a DH for the final 15 seasons of his 22-year career).

Baines himself was also surprised: “I wasn’t expecting this day to come,” the six-time All-Star said.

Cooperstown Cred: Harold Baines

• Career: .289 BA, 384 HR, 1,628 RBI, 2,866 Hits
• 10 career walk-off home runs
• 13 career grand slams
• 6-time All-Star
• Career postseason: .324 BA, .888 OPS, 5 HR, 16 RBI in 31 Games

(cover photo: Associated Press)

Don’t Hate, Celebrate

Suffice it to say that the election of Harold Baines to the Hall of Fame on Sunday was not met with universal praise.

“It’s a joke. It may be an intentional troll as well, the last dying breath of those who hold pitcher’s wins and batting average sacrosanct. A “screw you” to the analytical community, or any other sane person who looks at Baines’ stats and critically concludes he has no business in the Hall of Fame.”

— Kyle Koster (USA Today)

Koster’s opinion was shared by many in the baseball pundit class.

I didn’t think Harold Baines deserved to be elected by this committee but it’s happened. It’s done. I choose not to hate but instead to celebrate. 12 out of 16 panelists on the Today’s Game Committee decided that what Baines did in his 22-year career was worthy of a Hall of Fame plaque. 12 votes is 75%, that makes him a Hall of Famer.

Baines will be on stage this summer with Lee Smith, Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez and (maybe) Mike Mussina, with Roy Halladay a likely posthumous selection. It will be a time to reflect on what Baines was as a baseball player, not what he wasn’t. Baines was a consistent presence in his teams’ lineups for two decades. He was never spectacular but he was solid, seemingly forever.

For 16 years, the various versions of the Hall’s Veterans Committees failed to elect a single living player to the Hall of Fame. Now, in the last two cycles, four players have been inducted (Jack Morris and Alan Trammell last year). This is a positive development. The Hall’s proportional representation of players from the first half of the 20th century is vastly greater than the representation from the second half of the century.

Maybe Baines isn’t the guy you had in mind but others felt differently. There will be more ballots in upcoming years. Obviously Baines had a strong constituency among former players, managers and executives. What would have been worse is if, like Lou Piniella, he had also finished one vote short of 75% with 11 votes.

Impact on Future Committee Ballots

Three years from now, Fred McGriff and (probably) Larry Walker will be on the 2022 Today’s Game ballot. With Smith and Baines in Cooperstown, McGriff and Walker (and others) will not have to compete for votes with Smith and Baines.

Just as the BBWAA has had a ballot backlog for years, the various versions of the Veterans Committees have their own backlogs. Electing people is a positive thing, not a negative. Harold Baines had a better career than many players who are already in the Hall. He’s in. Don’t worry. Be happy.

There are a lot of players from the 1970’s, ’80’s and 90’s who barely registered with the BBWAA in the last few decades. It is a good thing, not a bad thing, that there is a second chance for these players.

Finally, to help you feel better about Harold Baines as a Hall of Famer, think about this. If not for the two player strikes of 1981 and 1994-95, he might have gotten 3,000 hits and been elected by the BBWAA years ago. This might have happened, it might not have. Obviously, we can never know for sure. More on this below.

Is Cronyism Back at the Hall of Fame’s Veterans Committee?

Although I choose to celebrate Harold Baines’ election to the Hall of Fame but, based on the composition of the members of the Today’s Game Committee, this is a question that must be asked.

In the long history of the Veterans Committee, the “second chance” entrance to the Hall of Fame, there have instances influential and strong-willed committee members ramming through their favorite candidates into Cooperstown. This cronyism was most notorious from 1967-1976, when Frankie Frisch, Bill Terry and Waite Hoyt helped to elect 9 of their former teammates.

This year’s Today’s Game Committee of 16 men and women included four with ties to Harold Baines: longtime White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa (who managed Baines for 10 seasons in Chicago and Oakland), Hall of Famer Roberto Alomar (his teammate in Baltimore and Cleveland) and Hall of Famer Pat Gillick (his General Manager in Baltimore).

Now, to be fair, these four needed eight allies on the committee to get to 12 votes and we don’t know for certain that all four actually voted for him. We do know that Reinsdorf was in his corner, as he was not shy about his role in getting Baines into the Hall:

“So happy for Harold. He’s a great player and a great human being. I am so honored that I was a member of the committee. He deserved to be in long ago. I am just so excited.”

— Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox owner and member of the Today’s Game Committee)

La Russa also was clearly in Baines’ corner as well and (this is just a guess by me) likely the most persuasive member of the committee.

“The great players slow the game down and he did that all the time in Chicago and Oakland… He was a clutch, clutch hitter and if it wasn’t for the (1994) strike, he would have had 3,000 hits.”

— Tony La Russa (Hall of Fame manager, in a Monday press conference)

La Russa Responds to the “Cronyism” Charge

On a Wednesday appearance with Christopher Russo on High Heat, the Hall of Fame manager responded forcefully to the word “cronyism.” This was a word used by several critics, including Russo, who was highly critical of the Baines Hall call during his show on Monday. Russo does not look at what he calls “dopey stats” (WAR, OPS+) when he thinks of Hall of Famers. His chief criticism was about Baines’ lack of black type or MVP Awards on his statistical resume.

A can't miss debate between @MadDogUnleashed and @TonyLaRussa.

The subject: Harold Baines and the Hall of Fame. #HighHeat pic.twitter.com/903RYFFxEa

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 12, 2018

Let’s be fair. La Russa’s defense of the Baines selection was pretty weak. His chief argument was basically “I’m Tony La Russa and you’re not.” Maybe that was enough to flip the votes of a half dozen or more members of the Today’s Game Committee or, perhaps, the members of that group were already more open to rewarding Baines for his longevity.

I have enormous respect for La Russa, as does Russo, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be wrong.

Portions of the rest of this piece are culled from an article posted on November 25th examining Baines’ Hall of Fame candidacy.

Running the Numbers: Did Two Strikes Cost Baines 3,000 Hits?

Harold Baines is one of about two dozen players whose careers were significantly impacted by both of the two biggest labor stoppages in MLB history.

Baines finished his career with 2,866 hits. Are the two player strikes responsible for depriving him of 3,000 hits, which might have punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame along time ago? Let’s run the numbers:

In 1981, Baines had 296 plate appearances in the White Sox 106 games played. He got 80 hits in those 296 PA. If his playing time and production had remained consistent, he would have logged an additional 194 PA and 52 hits.

In 1994, he had 357 PA with the Orioles in 94 games played. He had 96 hits. Again, using the same parameters of playing time and production, a strike-free year would have yielded 190 more PA and 51 hits.

In 1995, Baines had 459 PA and 115 hits in 127 games played in a season shortened to 144 games. Another 18 games would have theoretically added 65 PA and 16 hits.

Obviously, we have to live in the real world. However, it’s quite possible that the two player strikes cost Harold Baines a total of 119 hits. If you add 119 to his actual total, he would have had 2,985 hits! Also, with 449 extra PA, Baines might also have added at least 16 home runs to put him into the 400 HR club.

Another writer (Dan Holmes) did a similar study and concluded that Baines would have finished with 2,982 hits. Either way, I think it’s fair to say that if he had actually been that close to the magic number at the end of 2001, either the White Sox or some other team would have given him a chance to make it to 3,000 the following year.

When Does a Player Deserve Credit for Lost Time?

There are many career trajectories that a player can follow to finish with a career worthy of the Hall of Fame. Some have extraordinary peaks in which they dominate the game for a short period of time. Others have respectable careers but have major postseason moments to put a cherry on top of their Cooperstown sundae. Then there are others who are merely “very good” but not “great” for a long period of time. That’s the career of Harold Baines.

To me, Baines’ numbers don’t add up to a Hall of Fame career. He fell short of key milestones, his rate stats (while good) are not good enough for an offense-only player.

Having said that, the last piece (about how the two player strikes likely cost him 3,000 hits) really bothers me. Most players fall short of milestones because of ineffective play or because their careers are shortened due to injury. Generally, you can’t give player credit for something that didn’t happen. I have three exceptions, however.

1. Lost time due to segregation
2. Lost time due to military service
3. Lost time due to work stoppages

Obviously, #1 and #2 are germane only for players in the first half of the 20th century, #3 for the second half only. I argued that the strike of 1994-95 cost McGriff his chance at 500 home runs and that’s one of many reasons why the Crime Dog belongs in the Hall of Fame. I’m not the only person to make that argument.

It’s not quite the same, 7 home runs needed for McGriff compared to 134 hits for Baines but the principle is the same.

I have to ask myself, if Harold Baines actually had those 3,000 hits and 400 HR, would he be in the Hall of Fame already and, more importantly, how would those of us who are sabermetrically inclined feel about it? He would have (could have) been one of just 12 players in history to reach both plateaus. Would we care that his WAR (depressed by spending years as a DH) was around 40?

The point is now moot but it’s an interesting thought exercise. La Russa confirmed that this topic was discussed during the Today’s Game Committee meeting on Sunday.

Imagine that you’re sitting on that committee and perhaps not a huge fan of advanced analytics (I’m looking at you, Joe Morgan). You have Tony La Russa make the point that “Harold Baines would have had 3,000 hits if not for the strikes.” Do you see now how Baines might have gotten to 12 votes?

 

In the balance of this piece, I’ll recap Harold Baines long and productive career and then tackle the case of whether he did enough to be worthy of his upcoming enshrinement into the Hall of Fame. Besides my own thoughts, I’ll be sharing Baines’ own thoughts on the topic.

Career Highlights: Chicago White Sox (1980-1989)

Harold Douglas Baines was born on March 15, 1959 in Easton, Maryland, a small town on the Eastern Shore. Chicago White Sox owner Bill Veeck spotted Baines playing Little League ball at the age of 12. Veech made Baines the #1 overall pick in the 1977 player draft.

In a quirk of fate, the 3rd overall pick in 1977 was future Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, drafted by the Brewers. Like Baines, Molitor started more games as a designated hitter than at any other position.

Baines spent three seasons in the minor leagues before making the big club in Spring Training 1980 at the age of 21. Playing for 2nd year manager La Russa, Baines was the Opening Day right fielder for the White Sox in 1980 and played in 141 games. His first at bat (a flyout) and first home run (9 days later) were both against future Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer.

On July 26, 1980, Baines hit the first of his 10 career walk-off home runs off another future Hall of Famer, Fergie Jenkins.

The young left-handed-hitting right fielder was well known to La Russa, who was his skipper at AA Knoxville in 1978 and AAA Iowa for most of 1979. The future Hall of Famer was promoted to manage the big club in Chicago in August ’79.

Baines as a hitter was undisciplined in his early years. He drew just 31 walks in 814 plate appearances in ’80 and ’81 but La Russa was patient.

Harold Baines Breaks Out

After two years of getting spelled from time to time against left-handed starters, Baines became the Chisox full-time right fielder in 1982, playing in 161 games. With 25 home runs, 105 RBI and a .469 slugging% (114 OPS+), he finished 20th in the A.L. MVP voting.

On July 7, Baines hit 3 home runs including his first career grand slam. Just four days later, he would hit his second career granny.

Baines regressed slightly in 1983 (20 HR, 99 RBI, 109 OPS+) but the White Sox won the A.L. West and with that came extra respect. Baines was 10th in the MVP voting. At the time, baseball counted a stat called “Game-Winning RBI.” Baines set a record in ’83 with 22 of them.

Harold’s first taste of October baseball was a disappointment. He hit just .125 (2 for 16) with no RBI.

1984, by WAR, was Baines’ best season. He hit 29 HR with 94 RBI and established career highs with a .304 average, .361 OBP and .541 SLG, which was good enough to lead the A.L. Baines’ OPS+ was an excellent 142, his WAR a solid 4.3.

On May 9, Baines his his fourth career walk-off tater to end the longest game in MLB history, a 25-inning contest against the Milwaukee Brewers. For the game, which was played on successive evenings, he went 2 for 10 with 2 walks. Hall of Famer Tom Seaver was the winning pitcher, having been brought in to pitch the top of the 25th. Seaver won the regularly scheduled game on the same night as well.

For whatever it’s worth, the 25-inning contest was a spark for Baines. He had entered the marathon tilt hitting just .172 with 9 RBI in 26 games. After the 25th-inning walk-off, for the rest of the year, he hit. 335 with 27 homers, 84 RBI and a .604 slugging%.

All-Star Harold Baines

Now 26 years old in 1985, Baines made his first All-Star team. On the surface, he upped his game to a .309 BA and 113 RBI (his career high), while also rapping out a career-best 198 hits. With fewer home runs (22), however, his slugging percentage dipped to .457, his OPS+ to 118. Still, Baines was 9th in the MVP voting.

The 1985 campaign was the last in which Harold Baines would receive any MVP recognition.

Baines made it to the Mid-Summer Classic again in ’86, the second of his five career appearances.

Harold Baines was forced to become the team’s designated hitter in 1987, due to problems with his knees. He spent two full seasons as the Chisox DH before being traded on July 29, 1989, shortly after his fourth All-Star appearance.

Texas Rangers (1989-1990)

Harold Baines, now 30, was having arguably the best season of his career when he was traded to the Texas Rangers. He was hitting .326 with a robust .423 OBP and .505 SLG (for a whopping 165 OPS+).

It was a controversial trade, given that Baines was a popular homegrown player in Chicago but the team, in the midst of its fourth straight losing season, wanted to get younger. In the five-player trade, the Rangers sent 19-year old pitcher Wilson Alvarez to Chicago along with a skinny 20-year old outfielder named Sammy Sosa.

The Rangers did not get the version of Harold Baines that they bargained for. In 50 games in ’89, he hit just 3 home runs with 16 RBI and a 102 OPS+.

In 1990, Baines was having a pretty good season with the Rangers (.290 BA, 131 OPS+) but a 17-game slump (.204 BA, .569 OPS) caused management to give up on him. With the team out of contention, Baines was dealt to the Oakland Athletics on August 28 in exchange for two minor leaguers.

Oakland Athletics (1990-1992)

Harold Baines’ first MLB manager (Tony La Russa) was in his fifth season as the skipper of the Oakland Athletics. Reports at the time recall that La Russa was thrilled to add the left-handed hitter to his star-studded but right-handed heavy lineup. Clearly La Russa saw a Hall of Famer in the making, given Baines’ election by La Russa and eleven others 28 years later.

A’s pitcher Dave Stewart was also amazed at the trade, saying “I figured it would take a lot more than two minor leaguers to get Harold Baines.”

Back in the playoffs for the first time since 1983, Baines hit .357 in the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox before slumping to .143 in the World Series, which the A’s unexpectedly lost to the Cincinnati Reds.

Baines had a really good first full season in Oakland. He made his fifth All-Star squad while hitting .295 with 20 HR, 90 RBI and a 143 OPS+. 1992 wasn’t as good (16 HR, 76 RBI, 108 OPS+).

The biggest post-season moment of his career game in Game 1 of the ALCS against the Toronto Blue Jays. In the top of the 9th inning, with the score tied at 3, Baines hit a solo home run off 1991 World Series hero Jack Morris to break the tie and lead the team to a 4-3 win. The Jays would go on to defeat the A’s in 6 games but Baines did his part, hitting .440 with a 1.080 OPS.

At the end of the season, now a free agent, Baines decided to go home.

Baltimore Orioles (1993-1995)

On December 3, 1993, Harold Baines signed a free agent contract with the Baltimore Orioles, the team closest to his hometown in Easton, Maryland. Now 34 entering the 1994 season, Baines was a much more disciplined hitter than he had been in his younger years. In three seasons, he hit .303 with a 131 OPS+.

After those three seasons with Baltimore, Baines returned to Chicago as a free agent for the 1996 season.

Designated Hitting Gun For Hire (1996-2000)

Harold Baines switched teams five times in his final six seasons in baseball. On three separate occasions, he was traded just before the end of July or end of August trading deadlines to teams looking for some veteran left-handed thump.

Baines hit over .300 with 147 RBI in 1 1/2 seasons back in Chicago before being dealt at the trading deadline back to the Orioles, who were contending in the A.L. East.

Down the stretch in 1997, Baines helped the O’s to their first postseason berth in 15 years. In the playoffs, he hit .364 with a 1.076 OPS. The O’s won the ALDS against the Seattle Mariners but fell to the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS.

In 1999, Baines was having a superb season with the O’s (.322 BA, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 151 OPS+) before being traded in late August to the Indians. The Tribe lost the ALDS in five games to the Boston Red Sox but not because of Baines, who hit .357 with a 1.009 OPS.

A free agent again, Baines went back home to Baltimore for the 2000 season. The O’s were out of contention again, however, and traded Baines back to his second home (Chicago). The White Sox were in contention and looking for a left-handed bat off the bench (Frank Thomas was entrenched as the team’s DH, with Paul Konerko at first base).

Final Ride in Chicago

Baines struggled in the part-time role, hitting just .213 with 9 RBI in 68 plate appearances. In the playoffs, in which the Chisox were swept in 3 games by the Mariners, Baines went 1 for 4.

The favorite son in Chicago, whose uniform #3 had been retired over a decade earlier, came back in 2001. Baines was no longer a quality hitter, however. He was hitting just .133 in 93 plate appearances when he severely injured his hip flexor on June 14th.

Baines missed most of the rest of the season, returning on September 27th for a pinch-hitting appearance. He received a standing ovation by the Comiskey Park faithful before striking out in what would be his final MLB at bat.

The pride of Easton, MD made his debut on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot in 2007 and earned 5.3% of the vote, barely enough to come back for another try (5% is the minimum). Baines barely cleared the bar for three additional ballots before dropping to 4.8% on his fifth try in 2011.

Where Harold Baines Ranks among Designated Hitters

It might surprise you to know that there are only 6 players who have logged more than 6,000 career plate appearances with more than half of then occurring as their team’s designated hitter. Besides Harold Baines, the others are Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz, Don Baylor, and Hal McRae.

If you’re wondering about Paul Molitor, he started more games at DH than any other position but started more overall games in the field (at multiple positions) than he did as his team’s DH.

Anyway, here are the six DH’s:

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Thomas was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Martinez is likely to make it this year on his 10th try this year. Ortiz, arguably the greatest postseason hitter ever, is considered a virtual lock to make it in the future.

Thanks to an additional 2,418 plate appearances in his career (about 4 full seasons worth), Baines has superior “counting” stats to Martinez but Edgar’s “rate” stats are vastly superior. As told to Graham Womack of The Sporting News, Baines said that Martinez was one of the best hitters he ever saw. He was also very circumspect about how he stood in the DH pecking order.

“I never won a batting title or anything like that… He (Edgar) won batting titles. That might be a plus. And he kind of broke all of my DH records, and then Big Papi broke all of his records.”

— Harold Baines (The Sporting News), Oct. 25, 2016

Baines also said, of Ortiz, that he’s “a Hall of Famer in my book.”

Regarding his own case, Baines told Womack that he was “shocked” when he was named to the Veterans Committee ballot two year ago. He repeated the word “shocked” when he learned last night that he had actually been elected to the Hall of Fame.

The Hall of Fame Case for Harold Baines

The Cooperstown case for Harold Baines is based on longevity and the consistency he showed over 22 seasons. Baines was good enough to be named to 6 All-Star Squads but never good enough to be a serious contender for the A.L. MVP.

The first graphic I’m going to show is where Baines ranks all-time in certain statistical categories. The graphic will show how many Hall of Famers are ahead of Baines in each category and how many are behind. It will also show how many non-Hall of Famers he is behind. The non-Hall of Famers will be broken down into those that are or have been eligible for Cooperstown (i.e., they retired in 2013 or earlier). I’ll also separately show how many of the not Cooperstown enshrined have links to Performance Enhancing drugs.

When looking at where Baines ranks in each category, use this fact as a baseline: there are 157 position players currently enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

Here’s an explanation of some of what you see below:

# behind NOT in HOF & eligible= includes all players who are ahead of Baines in the listed category who are NOT in the Hall of Fame but are eligible. Players who have yet to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot (Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Adrian Beltre and others) are NOT counted here.

# behind NOT in HOF & eligible and NOT linked to scandal or PEDs = includes all players who are ahead of Baines and have been eligible for the Hall but are still on (or off) the ballot because of scandal or PED use. Pete Rose, Barry Bonds, and Mark McGwire are among those in this group. 

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Take a moment to linger over this graphic. In these key counting statistics, Baines is ahead of lots of Hall of Famers. However, it’s fair to note that lots of those behind him were catchers, middle infielders or center fielders. Baines was a right fielder for 7 seasons and then a designated hitter after that.

What this all Means

The last row is the key.

Baines had 2,866 career hits: there are only two players in history who have fewer than 3,000 hits but more hits than Baines who are not in the Hall of Fame. Those two are Bonds (2,935 hits) and Omar Vizquel (2,877). Vizquel, of course, was a completely different player, a 11-time Gold Glove shortstop but one who had vastly less offensive value.

The chief takeaway here is this: Harold Baines currently has the 11th most RBI for any player who doesn’t have a Cooperstown plaque yet (Baines will get his this summer).

Here’s the full list of RBI leaders among the non-enshrined, with OPS+ added for context:

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On the list in front of Baines are five still-active or recently-retired players who have yet to hit the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot: A-Rod, Albert Pujols, Ortiz, Beltre and Miguel Cabrera. Also in front are five players who have been tainted by PEDs: Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield and Sammy Sosa.

You might be surprised to see that Baines’ OPS+ is only 7 points lower than Sosa’s. It’s not as high as you’d like to see for a Hall of Fame hitter but, if you value his consistency and longevity, it’s not necessarily a deal-breaker.

In 18th place on this list is Joe Carter, another RBI man and contemporary of Baines. “Touch ’em all” Joe had ten seasons with 20 home runs and 100 RBI. He was on the Today’s Game ballot with Baines (his case covered here). If you just put the two side-by-side, Baines has a clear edge. Carter hit 12 more taters but Baines’ career OPS+ (121) is significantly better than Carter’s 105.

Harold Baines in the Clutch

After his early years as a free swinger, Harold Baines was valued for a long time as a dependable run producer and one who had the penchant for the big hit. As we’ve seen, Baines had 10 career walk-off home runs, which is 3 shy of Jim Thome‘s MLB record and (according to mlb.com) tied for the 10th most in history. In addition, Baines had six other walk-off hits and a walk-off sacrifice fly.

Baines also had 13 career grand slams, which is tied for the 21st most all-time.

In the last 50 years (the LCS era), Baines has the 17th most RBI, which by itself is an impressive number. In addition, Baines has the 5th most RBI with two outs and runners in scoring position, behind only Eddie Murray, Ramirez, Dave Winfield, and Beltre.

Similarity Scores

Every player’s Baseball Reference page has a category called “Similarity Scores,” a Bill James invention from many years ago. I invite you to visit the Glossary for details but here is the short version. If two players have identical statistics across the board, they’ll have a Similarity Score of 1,000. Points are deducted for every statistical difference. If the two players are 10 career home runs apart, 5 points are deducted, and so on. A positional adjustment is made as well.

Although the Similarity Scores are a little crude by today’s standards (modern metrics like WAR and OPS+ aren’t included), it’s still a highly useful beacon to see which players are within the statistical range of each other.

The top five players on Harold Baines’ list of “most similar” are Tony Perez, Al Kaline, Dave Parker, Billy Williams, and Andre Dawson. That’s a nice list, with four Hall of Famers and one “Hall of Almost” (Parker).

Let’s look at the numbers of these five players side by side:

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I highlighted Baines and Perez because the Big Dog is #1 on Baines’ Similarity Score list. The numbers are really close here.

The Case Against Harold Baines for the Hall of Fame

First of all, allow me to state that the “case against” doesn’t really matter anymore. Harold Baines is going to be inducted into the Hall of Fame next summer. However, I’m going to keep this section in this piece because it’s important to understand the reasons why Baines’ selection was so controversial and surprising, even to him.

More on the Similarity Scores

Let’s start with the Similarity Scores list just shared. Statistically, Baines is a virtual mirror image of Tony Perez, the key RBI cog of the Big Red Machine in the 1970’s. However, Perez won two championships with the Cincinnati Reds and was a key contributor to those titles.

In addition, the right-handed hitting Perez spent five of his most productive early years playing third base. Also, because Perez mostly played in the National League, he rarely was used as a DH whereas Baines spent his last 15 years not playing in the field.

As for the other names on the list, Dawson and Kaline were superior defensive players, winning a combined 18 Gold Gloves. Regarding Williams, the longtime Cubs outfielder had a superior slash line despite playing in the offensively-depressed 1960’s and ’70’s.

Baines compares most favorably to Parker, but the Cobra of course is not in the Hall of Fame.

Always Good but Rarely Great

With the understanding that the Hall of Fame case for Harold Baines is based on being a consistent run-producer for 20 years, the biggest knock against him remains that he was never one of the top offensive players in the game. As a player who was only an offensive player for the majority of his career, being one of the best with the bat is even more important than it would be if he were contributing with the leather or on the basepaths.

A quick way to scan a player’s dominance in any facet of the game is to look for black type, which indicates a league-leading number. Baines has just one; in 1984, he led the A.L. with a .541 slugging percentage. What I’m going to share now is pretty damning.

Harold Baines season by season Top 10 statistical ranks:

• HR: ranked 9th in the A.L. once (29 HR in 1984)
• RBI: ranked 4th in the A.L. in 1985 (113), 8th in 1982 (105), no other Top 10’s
• Hits: ranked 5th in the A.L. in 1985 (198 hits), no other Top 10’s
• BA: three seasons in the top 10, never in Top 5
• OBP: ranked 7th in the A.L. in 1989 (.395), no other Top 10’s
• SLG: led the A.L. in 1984 (.541), no other Top 10’s
• OPS+: four times in top 10, only once in Top 5 (was 5th in 1989 with 144 OPS+)
• Runs: no Top 10’s

Ouch. Using 8 of the most important offensive categories, Baines only made the Top 10 in the American League in any category 13 times in 22 seasons. Only once was he ever in the Top 3 of anything.

What underscores Harold Baines’ general “good but not great” career is that he won only one Silver Slugger Award in his 22-year MLB career. At the DH position, Ortiz won the award 7 times. Martinez won it 5 times (including one time at third base). Don Baylor, who nobody ever pegged for the Hall of Fame, won it 3 times.

Conclusion

One of the common threads in the opinion pieces I read today was that, if you put Harold Baines in the Hall of Fame, then you have to put x, y and z into the Hall as well.

No, you don’t have to.

There are already lots of players in the Hall of Fame who were not quite as good statistically as players who aren’t. There are tons of them. It may frustrate those of us doing hours of research to justify “yes” or “no” votes but the rules are the rules. 12 out of 16 specifically chosen people said “yes” to Baines.

People whined last year about Jack Morris getting into Cooperstown with his low WAR and high ERA. Sorry. If you put up regular season numbers similar to what Morris did and you log more complete games than any other hurlers in your era and you toss a 10-inning shutout in Game 7 of the World Series then you too can get in the Hall.

Every case is distinct.

If Baines’ career 38.7 WAR and 121 OPS+ are used as a baseline for what a Hall of Famer should be when it comes to other players, they’re going to need to build another wing in Cooperstown to fit all of the plaques.

If, however, you simply acknowledge that 3,000 hits is a worthy baseline for a Hall of Famer and believe that the two player strikes cost Baines those 3,000 hits, then you can use him as a baseline for future potential inductees.

In other words, if you’re going to be a DH with a 38.7 WAR, you better get those 3,000 knocks. I’d actually go a step further and put it this way: if you’re going to be a DH with a WAR that low, you’ll need 3,000 hits and 1,000 walks (Baines had 1,062).

Congratulations Harold Baines on your excellent career and your achievement of the ultimate honor the sport confers to it’s players, a plaque with your face on it in the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.

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