Ian Kinsler Retires as a Long-Shot Hall of Fame Candidate

On Friday, San Diego Padres second baseman Ian Kinsler announced that he was retiring after a 14-season Major League Baseball career. In 2019, a season in which he turned 37 years old, Kinsler was limited by injury and ineffectiveness to a career low 87 games played. The right-handed hitting second sacker finishes his career with 1,999 hits, putting him one knock shy of a milestone that has been an unofficial prerequisite of Hall of Fame candidates who have retired in the last 60 years.

Kinsler was known for his intensity and his above average ability at multiple facets of the game. He was an excellent fielder who ran well and hit with power. A herniated cervical disk that ended his season in mid-August was a factor in Kinsler’s decision to retire.

“It was a factor in my decision. My pride wouldn’t let me go halfway at something that I’ve been doing at 100 percent for my whole baseball life.”

— Ian Kinsler (12/20/19, as told to The Athletic)

Kinsler played 15,857 innings in the field over his 17 MLB campaigns, with all but 3 of those innings at second base. He played two innings at third in 2012 and pitched one frame for the Friars in 2019.

“A lot of teams point to their leadoff man as the engine, the one who gets the fire started.  That was Kins for us. He had fun, played hard, and talked a lot of s—.  Every team needs that guy.  He’s such a good friend and one of my favorite teammates.  Cheers to a hell of a career.”

— Michael Young, Rangers shortstop (12/20/19, The Athletic)

Cooperstown Cred: Ian Kinsler

• Rangers (2006-13), Tigers (2014-17), Angels (2018), Red Sox (2018), Padres (2019)
• Career: 257 HR, 909 RBI, 1,999 Hits, .269 BA, .337 OBP, .440 SLG
• Career: 107 OPS+, 57.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 257 HR is the 8th most for 2nd basemen in baseball history
• 4-time All-Star
• 2-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• Member of 2018 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox

(cover photo: Newsday/Kathy Kmonicek)

Ian Kinsler: Career Highlights

Ian Michael Kinsler was born on June 22, 1982 in Tucson, Arizona. After begin drafted twice (without signing) by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Kinsler started his professional career as a member of the Texas Rangers organization. He was selected in the 17th round in 2003 after spending a year at the University of Missouri.

Just as he would do in his final seasons in Major League Baseball, Kinsler bounced around in his three college years, spending one year at Central Arizona, one year at Arizona State, and one year at Mizzou. Despite playing just the one year in Columbia, Tigers coach Tim Jamieson credited Kinsler for helping turn the school’s baseball program into a winner.

Once he became a professional, Kinsler spent only three seasons in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut with the Rangers as the team’s Opening Day second baseman in 2006.

Texas Rangers: 2006-13

Ian Kinsler had big shoes to fill in Texas; he replaced 4-time All-Star Alfonso Soriano at 2nd base, forming a double play combo with another All-Star, shortstop Michael Young. The rookie had a solid first campaign in the bigs, hitting .286 with 14 home runs with 55 RBI. Kinsler showed both speed and significant home run power in his sophomore campaign; he hit 20 homers while stealing 23 bases (against 2 times caught stealing).

It was in 2008 that the right-handed hitting second sacker blossomed into a star player. Installed by manager Ron Washington as the team’s full-time leadoff hitter, Kinsler hit .319 with 18 HR, 71 RBI and 26 stolen bases (while only being thrown out trying to steal twice). Along the way, Kinsler produced a 134 OPS+ and scored 102 runs. It was a season that gave the Tucson native his first All-Star berth.

In his first three seasons defensively, Kinsler had positives and negatives. He led the American League in Range Factor for 2nd basemen all three years but also committed 53 miscues, leading the A.L. in errors all three seasons as well.

In ’09, Kinsler regressed offensively to a .253 BA (107 OPS+) but produced his first of two 30-30 seasons with 31 taters and 31 steals, which led to another 101 runs scored. In the field, Kinsler blossomed. He led the league in “Zone Runs” for second basemen, forming a nifty DP tandem with rookie Venezulean shortstop Elvis Andrus (Young was moved to the hot corner). The combination of Kinsler’s hitting, fielding and base running yielded a 6.0 WAR, 9th best in the A.L. for position players.

Due to injuries, Kinsler was limited to 103 games in 2010 but made the All-Star Game anyway and the team, loaded with power bats Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, made the playoffs and got all the way to the World Series.

2010 Postseason

Ian Kinsler, in the playoffs for the first time at the age of 28, started off his postseason career with a bang. In the American League Division Series (against the defending A.L. pennant winning Tampa Bay Rays), Kinsler hit .444 with 3 home runs and 6 RBI. His 9th inning home run in Game 5 (off Rafael Soriano) extended the Rangers’ 3-1 lead to a 5-1 advantage, putting the icing on a series winning cake.

The rest of the 2010 postseason didn’t go quite as well; Kinsler hit .222 with a .659 OPS and just 3 RBI in 11 games in the ALCS and World Series, which the Rangers lost to San Francisco in 5 Games.

2011-13

Kinsler had his ups and downs in his last there seasons in Texas. In 2011, he walloped a career high 32 home runs while stealing another 30 bases and scoring 125 runs. With solid defensive metrics, Kinsler earned a 7.0 WAR, best on the team; it was a performance that helped Texas back to the post-season and earned him an 11th place finish in the MVP vote.

Kinsler was solid throughout the 2011 postseason, hitting. 303 with a .868 OPS and 11 RBI. The Rangers made it back to the Fall Classic but fell in 7 games to the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Rangers’ star second baseman was down and up in his final two years in Texas. He made his 3rd All-Star squad in 2012 (despite a 97 season-long OPS+ and 2.4 WAR) before rebounding in 2013 (106 OPS+, 5.0 WAR).

Detroit Tigers: 2014-17

On November 20, 2013, the Rangers traded Ian Kinsler, one of the fans’ favorite players, to the Detroit Tigers for slugging first baseman Prince Fielder. The trade was a disaster for Texas, as Fielder played in only 42 games in 2014, hitting just 3 home runs.

Kinsler, meanwhile, had another All-Star campaign; he played in a career high 161 games, hit 17 HR, drove in 92, scored 100, and posted a 5.8 WAR thanks to strong defensive numbers. He followed that up with a 5.9 WAR in 2015 and a 6.0 mark in 2016. He also finally won a Gold Glove in ’16.

It was in 2017 that the 35-year old Kinsler showed signs that he was slowing down. Although he still showed power (22 HR), he hit a career low .236 with an OPS+ of 92.

Final 2 Seasons: 2018-19

After toiling for his first 15 Major League Baseball cities in just two cities, Ian Kinsler played his final two campaigns for three different ball clubs. With one year left on the $75 million contract extension that he had originally signed in Texas, the Tigers traded their second baseman to the Los Angeles Angels for two minor league players.

With Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Albert Pujols hitting behind him in the lineup, hopes were high that Kinsler would score well over 100 runs for the Halos. Unfortunately, the veteran second sacker got off to a miserable start, hitting just .178 (with a .249 OBP and .263 SLG) in his first 54 games in an Angels’ uniform. After 82 games, hitting .216 with .666 OPS, manager Mike Scioscia finally moved him out of the leadoff hole.

In mid-July, Kinsler got hot, hitting .417 with a 1.137 OPS in a 13-game stretch. It was a streak just hot enough to attract the attention of Boston Red Sox manager Dave Dombrowki (Kinsler’s GM in Detroit). With Dustin Pedroia out for the year, the front-running Sox needed help at 2nd base so a trade was consummated.

Kinsler didn’t produce a whole lot for the BoSox (64 OPS+, -0.1 WAR, 1 HR in 143 PA) but the team won 108 games and, eventually, gave the 36-year old veteran his first World Series ring. Despite an off-year overall, Kinsler was granted his second career Gold Glove.

As previously noted, Kinsler spent his final MLB campaign with San Diego. He hit .217 with a OPS+ of 70 and a WAR of -0.3.

The Hall of Fame Case For Ian Kinsler

The Hall of Fame case for Ian Kinsler is fairly thin, but it’s legit. Kinsler’s case is that he played a premium position exceedingly well while hitting for reasonable power and providing significant value on the base paths.

Because Kinsler contributed value in ways that are not easily measured on the back of a baseball card, his Cooperstown case has to start with WAR (Wins Above Replacement). His career mark of 57.2 is tied (with Hall of Famer Joe Gordon) for 17th best in the history of the game among second basemen. While he was certainly not Gordon’s equal (the Yankees and Indians second sacker missed two prime years due to World War II), Kinsler’s WAR is higher than 8 second basemen who are enshrined in Cooperstown.

At 57.2, Kinsler also has a higher career WAR than current BBWAA candidate Jeff Kent (the all-time HR leader for second sackers) and Pedroia, the beloved member of the Red Sox whose career has been short-circuited and may be over due to an injury and surgery-ravaged left knee.

As a power-speed player, Kinsler is also one of just 4 second baseman in baseball history to record at least 250 taters and 200 steals. The others are Hall of Famers Craig Biggio, Ryne Sandberg and Joe Morgan. If you add fielding to the mix, using Rfield from Baseball Reference (“Runs from fielding” that contributes to a player’s WAR), Kinsler is the only second baseman in history to hit over 250 home runs, steal more than 200 bases and contribute over 100 runs from fielding (he is credited with 118).

The Hall of Fame Case Against Ian Kinsler

Let’s be frank. Ian Kinsler Hall of Fame credentials start with WAR and end with a somewhat contrived statistic about home runs and steals. If I were to lower the bar from 250 HR/200 SB to 200-200, Roberto Alomar and Brandon Phillips would be added to the mix. Phillips was a solid player but not one that screams “Cooperstown!”

In order to make the WAR case for Kinsler, you’ve got to buy the fielding metrics. If you go by Rfield, Kinsler was the 12th best fielding second baseman in the history of baseball (for players who started a minimum of 50% of their games at the keystone). As I noted in my piece about Andruw Jones, fielding metrics tend to have a generational bias towards modern players because more data is available.

Jones had a 62.8 WAR, won 10 Gold Gloves and hit 434 HR as a center fielder. He’s barely cracked 5% in his first two turns on the BBWAA ballot. His Rfield is 235, the best all-time for CF and twice as good as Willie Mays on a per innings basis. Nobody’s buying those numbers, hence Jones’ sluggish vote performance.

Remember, Jones is #1 in this fielding metric for center fielders. Kinsler is 12th for second basemen, which is good but it’s behind luminaries such as Frank White, Placido Polanco, Mark Ellis and Hughie Critz.

Other Kinsler Problems for Cooperstown

Besides what we’ve already documented, Ian Kinsler falls a bit short in the traditional measuring sticks used to evaluate Hall of Fame candidates.

• For the 162 players who logged at least 4,000 and 50% of their games at second base, Kinsler’s career BA of .269 is just 81st best.
• Kinsler’s 1,999 hits are just the 27th most for a second sacker and, as noted earlier, nobody who has played in the last 60 years has made it to the Hall of Fame with less than 2,000 knocks.
• Kinsler’s 909 RBI are decent but still only 24th best for second basemen.
• His 257 HR are 8th best (that’s good) but it’s only 5 more than Bret Boone’s 252 and we have to remember that Kinsler has played in a HR-happy era.

Using OPS+, which measures both on-base and slugging ability, adjusted for ballparks and the overall batting environment, Kinsler’s mark of 107 is just 40th best.

The final problem for Ian Kinsler’s Cooperstown case is that he’s lacking in accolades. Four All-Star appearances and two Gold Gloves are nice but hardly special.

Additionally, Kinsler received MVP votes in just 4 of his 14 MLB campaigns, only once finishing better than 20th and never finishing in the top 10. These are among the reasons why he only scores a 66 on the Bill James “Hall of Fame monitor,” a measurement which counts accomplishments and pegs a score of 100 as a “likely Hall of Famer.”

One could argue that the MVP voters missed Kinsler’s hidden skills but he still only finished in the top 10 of WAR 4 times among A.L. position players and never in the top 5.

Poor Man’s Chase Utley?

Another Bill James invention is the “Similarity Score,” which finds “most similar” players by looking at how close they are together in a variety of “old school” metrics. #1 on the list for Ian Kinsler is Chase Utley, another intense and gritty player who combined excellent hitting with superior fielding metrics and well above average base running numbers.

Utley retired a year ago (I wrote about him here) so he’ll have a one-year head start on Kinsler when it comes to the Hall of Fame ballot. Here is how the two second basemen’s numbers look side by side:

WP Table Builder

As you can see, Utley’s ahead pretty much everywhere except for hits and stolen bases but the Silver Fox drew more walks and had a superior SB% (a magnificent 88% compared to Kinsler’s better than average 77%).

Anyway, Utley hits the BBWAA ballot in December 2023 (for the Hall of Fame Class of 2024). The level of support that he gets will be predictive of how Kinsler fares. If Utley sails into the Cooperstown (which I doubt) that means that the electorate will have shifted enough to value the wide array of skills each player brings to the table. If Utley does poorly, Kinsler may not get the 5% to stay on future ballots.

Comparison to Dustin Pedroia

Finally, how does Ian Kinsler compare to Dustin Pedroia, who he replaced at 2nd base during the Red Sox’ 2018 title run? Both players debuted in 2006, although Pedroia’s official rookie campaign was not until 2007. It’s currently unknown whether the Laser Show will be able to return to Major League Baseball. He may be on the same 2025 ballot as Kinsler or he may be on it several years later.

WP Table Builder

Thanks in part to his 2007 Rookie of the Year Award, his 2008 A.L. MVP and his crucial role in securing the 2007 and ’13 World Series titles for the Red Sox, Pedroia scores much better than Kinsler on the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor scale, with 94 points compared to Kinsler’s 66.

It’s pretty clear to me that Pedroia has been the better hitter (albeit one with less home run pop). The numbers say that Kinsler was superior defensively but it’s not by much and Pedey has 4 Gold Gloves. Kinsler’s big advantage is simply that he’s played more; Pedroia’s knee has limited him to just 9 games in 2018 and ’19.

This is not how it actually works but, if given an “A or B” Hall of Fame choice between the two second sackers, I would expect a significantly high percentage of the BBWAA writers to choose Pedroia for his much greater historical significance.

Final Thouhgts

There’s no doubt that Ian Kinsler was an excellent player for a great many years. However, he never had a monster year that put him into MVP consideration and doesn’t have a statistical profile that calls out for a Hall of Fame plaque.

Kinsler fell just one hit short of 2,000 for his career. I would expect he’ll fall far, far shorter of the 75% needed for a spot in Cooperstown. The most likely outcome is that he’s “one and done” (with less than 5% of the vote) on the 2025 ballot.

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