Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner are Elected to the Hall of Fame

This evening, Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, New York. The 394 voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) elected Ichiro with 99.7% of the vote, Sabathia with 86.8%, and Wanger with 82.5% in an election that requires 75% or more for a spot in the Hall.

Ichiro became the second player in five years to fall one vote shy of being a unanimous selection; the same happened with Derek Jeter in 2020. Mariano Rivera remains the only player ever elected to the Hall of Fame unanimously.

Ichiro and Sabathia were on the BBWAA ballot for the first time, while Wagner got into the Hall in his 10th and final turn on the ballot.

Ichiro, Sabathia, and Wagner will be joined on stage in Cooperstown this July by Dave Parker, who was elected last month by the Classic Baseball Era Committee. Dick Allen will also be inducted posthumously this summer.

Carlos Beltran nearly made it a quartet of BBWAA inductees for 2025, falling just 19 votes short of 75%, earning 70.3%. Besides Beltran, only one other player earned at least 50.0% but less than 75% of the vote. Andruw Jones got 66.2% in his 8th time on the ballot.

The sixth-highest vote-getter was Chase Utley, who moved up from 28.8% in 2024 to 39.8% this year.

Two of the greatest hitters of their generation (Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez) remain stuck in BBWAA quicksand. Both players were suspended for the use of Performance-enhancing Drugs (PEDs), making them a non-starter for the Hall for approximately two-thirds of the writers. A-Rod got 37.1%, Manny 34.3%.

Ten other players (Andy Pettitte, Felix Hernandez, Bobby Abreu, Jimmy Rollins, Omar Vizquel, Dustin Pedroia, Mark Buehrle, Francisco Rodriguez, David Wright, and Torii Hunter) earned between 5% and 28% of the vote, which means they’ll be back on the 2026 ballot. However, there is no indication that any of them will ever get the kind of support that would allow them to surge into Cooperstown in the upcoming years. Hunter will return for a sixth time by the skin of his proverbial teeth; with one vote less, he would have been under 5%.

Ten first-time candidates earned less than 5% of the vote, disqualifying them from future BBWAA ballots. Those players (Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Ian Kinsler, Troy Tulowitzki, Curtis Granderson, Ben Zobrist, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones, and Fernando Rodney) all had excellent careers but didn’t have the longevity or the consistency to merit serious consideration for Cooperstown.

Here are the final results.

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Zobrist, Ramirez, and Rodney did not earn a single vote.

Here is a recap of the vote for each of the players who earned at least 5% of the vote. At the end of the piece, I’ll share a look-ahead to the 2026 through 2030 ballots.

Ichiro Suzuki – RF (99.7% in his 1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Mariners (2001-12 & ’18-19), Yankees (2012-14), Marlins (2015-17)
• Career: .311 BA, 3,089 Hits, 509 Stolen Bases
• Career: 107 OPS+, 60.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
• 10-time All-Star
• 10-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 2001 A.L. MVP and Rookie of the Year (.350 BA, 242 Hits, 56 SB)
• 2004: 262 Hits (highest single-season total in MLB history)
• One of 4 players in the last 100 years with 3,000 hits & 500 SB (Rickey Henderson, Paul Molitor, Lou Brock)

In yesteryear, BBWAA voters were especially stingy when it came to conferring “first-ballot” status on any Hall of Fame candidate. If you can believe it, Hank Aaron got “only” 97.8% of the vote in 1982, with nine voters deeming him unworthy of Cooperstown. Twenty-three writers didn’t check the name Willie Mays.

Not anymore: Ichiro joins Jeter as the second-highest vote-getter in the history of the Hall of Fame balloting.

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As you can see, seven of the highest fifteen vote totals have occurred in the past 12 years, with nine of the top fifteen occurring in the 21st century.

As a newly minted Hall of Famer, Ichiro will have the distinction of having made his Major League Baseball debut at the third highest age (27 years, 163 days) for any player enshrined in Cooperstown, behind only pitchers Hoyt Wilhelm and Joe McGinnity.

Ichiro becomes the first player born in the nation of Japan to make it into the Hall of Fame. He’s also the ninth foreign-born player to make the Hall in the last ten years, joining Adrian Beltre, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, David Ortiz, Edgar Martinez, Rivera, Vladimir Guerrero, and Ivan Rodriguez.

He’s the 22nd foreign-born player to make the Hall of Fame and the 16th to be enshrined by the BBWAA. (Note: Roberto Clemente is not on this list; he was voted in by special election in the year after his death).

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Ichiro also becomes just the eighth player in the history of the Seattle Mariners to get a plaque in Cooperstown and the seventh former player for the Miami Marlins.

For more on Ichiro’s uniquely superb career, please click here.

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CC Sabathia – SP (86.8% in his 1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Cleveland Indians (2001-08); Milwaukee Brewers (2008); New York Yankees (2009-19)
• Career: 251-161 (.609 WL%), 3.74 ERA, 3,093 strikeouts
• Career: 116 ERA+, 61.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 6-time All-Star
• Won 2007 Cy Young Award (19-7, 3.21 ERA, 5.65 SO/BB ratio)
• 4 other times in the top 5 of Cy Young Award voting
• Career WAR is better than 25 already-inducted Hall of Fame SP

When CC Sabathia is on stage in Cooperstown, New York, this summer as a newly minted Hall of Famer, he won’t be the tallest, despite his 6’6″ height; that honor belongs to the 6’10” Randy Johnson. But Sabathia will definitely be the biggest. His Baseball Reference page lists the big man at a robust 300 pounds, which would make him the first 300-pound Hall of Famer ever. (He is much slimmer now that he is retired.)

Again, according to Baseball Reference, the second heaviest Hall of Famer is Jim Thome, clocking in at 250 pounds.

When CC Sabathia retired after the 2019 campaign, I thought it would take him a few turns on the BBWAA ballot to make it to the Hall of Fame. My reasoning was that Sabathia’s career numbers are very similar to Andy Pettitte’s, and Pettitte had gotten just 9.9% on his first try on the ballot earlier in the year.

There is a difference, of course. Pettitte had, a long time before, admitted to using Human Growth Hormone during his career. This put him in the PED bucket of players. Nobody ever accused Sabathia of the same.

Still, Sabathia’s 3.74 ERA is now the third highest for a Hall of Fame enshrined starting pitcher, behind Jack Morris and Red Ruffing, both of whom had to wait well over a decade to make it into Cooperstown.

Sabathia is the first starting pitcher to be elected by the BBWAA since Roy Halladay (posthumously) and his teammate Mike Mussina, who were inducted in 2019 (Jim Kaat was elected by the Era Committee in 2022). He’s also just the 17th starting pitcher to be elected on the first ballot, joining a highly esteemed group of hurlers.

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Sabathia and Ichiro represent the 43rd and 44th former members of the New York Yankees to get into the Hall of Fame.

CC is just the ninth former member of the Milwaukee Brewer to get a Hall of Fame plaque. Dave Parker, elected last month by the Classic Baseball Committee, is also a former Brewer. He is the 33rd alumnus of the franchise now known as the Cleveland Guardians.

For more on CC Sabathia’s career and Hall of Fame credentials, please click here.

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Billy Wagner -RP (82.5% in his 10th year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Astros (1995-2003), Phillies (2004-05), Mets (2006-09), Red Sox (2009), Braves (2010)
• 422 career saves (6th most all-time)
• Career: 2.31 ERA (2nd best in last 100 years to Mariano Rivera) (min 750 IP)
• Career: 187 adjusted ERA+ (2nd best in all MLB history to Rivera) (min 750 IP)
• Career: 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings (2nd best in MLB history to Kenley Jansen) (min 750 IP)
• Career: 0.998 WHIP (walks + hits per 9 innings) (3rd best in MLB history to Jansen & Addie Joss)
• 7-time All-Star

Sometimes, the 10th time is a charm. Tonight, Billy Wagner has become the fourth player in the last nine years to make it into the Hall of Fame on their 10th and final turn on the BBWAA ballot, joining Larry Walker (2020), Edgar Martinez (2019), and Tim Raines (2017).

Wagner is the ninth relief pitcher to make it to the Hall of Fame, and he’s become the first pitcher with less than 1,000 innings pitched to be enshrined into Cooperstown (Wagner tossed 903 innings in his sixteen-year career).

Wagner was sometimes known as a mini-me of Randy Johnson. Although a full foot shorter than the Big Unit, Wagner was a flamethrower who touched the upper 90s on his fastball. Listed at 5’10”, he is one of the shortest pitchers ever enshrined into Cooperstown. Only 13 other Hall of Fame pitchers are listed on Baseball Reference at 5’10” or shorter, the last of whom (Whitey Ford) was born in 1928.

When Wagner first became eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2016, it was a jam-packed ballot, one that elected two players to the Hall (Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza) along with eight others who would make it in subsequent years, not to mention the ballot-clogging Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

The BBWAA elected thirteen Hall of Famers between 2016-19, Wagner’s first four years on the ballot. Finally, in 2020, the backlog started to clear, and Wagner started to creep upwards. One year ago, he finished just five votes short of the Hall of Fame, making his induction this year a near certainty. Anyway, here is the year-by-year progression of Wagner’s vote percentage.

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Having debuted at 10.5% of the vote, Wagner has the distinction of making the Hall of Fame with the second-lowest initial vote total in the last fifty years, behind only Scott Rolen, who was inducted two years ago.

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Wagner becomes the ninth relief pitcher to make it to the Hall of Fame, joining Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, and Lee Smith.

What’s interesting is that 19 pitchers have debuted in the LCS era (1969 and beyond) to make it to the Hall of Fame. Nine out of those 19 pitchers are relievers. If that proportion seems a bit out of whack, I would agree with you. For whatever reason, Hall of Fame voters have favored firemen over starters.

Here is the positional distribution of all current Hall of Famers who debuted in 1969 and beyond, breaking down the starting pitchers by role and the position players by, well, position.

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Wagner is the 11th member of the Houston Astros to make the Hall of Fame. He’s the 37th former Philadelphia Phillie, the 16th alumnus of the New York Mets, the 39th player to wear the Boston Red Sox uniform, and the 47th player from the Braves franchise now housed in Atlanta.

For more on Billy Wagner’s Hall of Fame case (this is one of my favorite pieces on Cooperstown Cred), please click here.

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The More than 50% but Less than 75% Club

Two players on the 2025 BBWAA ballot earned more than 50% but less than 75%. In most elections, a majority win rules, but not when it comes to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Still, in the entire history of the voting, almost every player who has gotten 50% or more on the writer’s ballot has eventually made it to Cooperstown, either via a subsequent BBWAA election or through one of the various versions of what is now known as the Era Committee (formerly the Veterans Committee).

The exceptions to the 50% rule are all recent: the only three who aren’t still on the BBWAA ballot are Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling, who fell short due to issues not related to their worthiness on the diamond. For Bonds and Clemens, it’s because of their PED use; for Schilling, it’s because he became a lightning rod with his political views.

So, we can expect both of these two players to be on stage in Cooperstown sometime in the near future. Both were center fielders who will address the positional disparity that we saw in the preceding graphic.

Carlos Beltran – CF (70.3% in his 3rd year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Royals (1998-2004), Astros (2004), Mets (2005-11), Giants (2011), Cardinals (2012-13), Yankees (2014-16), Rangers (2016), Astros (2017)
• Career: .279 BA, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 runs, 2,725 hits, 312 SB
• Career: 119 OPS+, 70.1 WAR
• 4th most HR all-time for center fielders (behind Mays, Griffey, Mantle) (minimum 50% games played in CF)
• 4th most RBI all-time for center fielders (behind Cobb, Mays, Griffey)
• 4th most HR all-time for switch-hitters (behind Mantle, Murray, and Chipper Jones)
• 3rd most RBI all-time for switch-hitters (behind Murray, and Jones)
• 9-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove winner, 2-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Career post-season: .307 BA, .412 OBP, .609 SLG, 16 HR, 42 RBI in 256 PA
• 5th highest post-season OPS (1.021) in baseball history (min. 150 PA) (Ruth, Gehrig, Pujols, Brett)

Carlos Beltran has the fourth most home runs (435) and fourth most RBI (1,587) among all center fielders in baseball history. He stole 312 bases with a success rate (of 86.4%), which is the best in baseball history for players with at least 200 steals. He also has the fourth most HR and third most RBI for any switch-hitter in MLB history.

To me, the guy is an obvious Hall of Famer, especially when you consider that only three center fielders to debut in 1969 or later have made it to Cooperstown (Andre Dawson, Kirby Puckett, and Ken Griffey Jr.).

Beltran has now, in my view, served a three-year waiting penalty for his role in the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. He has now “done his time.” He’ll be on stage next summer as the headline act of the Hall’s Class of 2026.

Given how close he came to making it 75% this year, I’ll once again share a graphic that shows the consistency in Hall of Fame voting trends that pushes players over the finish line the year after coming oh so close.

As you can see, 14 of the last 15 players to reach 70% (rounding up) of the vote make it over 75% the next year, with Curt Schilling being the notable exception for reasons about his politics, not his excellence on the mound.

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For more on Beltran’s Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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Andruw Jones – CF (66.2% in his 8th year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Braves (1996-’07), Dodgers (’08), Rangers (’09), White Sox (’10), Yankees (2011-12)
• Career: .254 BA, 434 HR, 1,289 RBI
• Career: 111 OPS+, 62.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove Award winner

Andruw Jones has a very strong basic Hall of Fame case: 10 Gold Gloves and 434 home runs at a premium defensive position (center field). On the sabermetric side, the defensive metrics that go into WAR anoint him as the greatest defensive center fielder in baseball history. That elevator pitch clearly resonates with the writers, based on the amazing gains Jones has made since earning less than 8% of the vote in his first two turns on the ballot.

Still, Jones only gained 4.6% from his 2024 tally (improving from 61.6% to 66.2%). He has to keep gaining ground and only has two years left on the ballot. That’s plenty of time to make up less than 9%, but it’s possible that he’ll meet resistance from writers unimpressed with his .254 career batting average and how his career fell off a cliff when he left Atlanta.

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Still, especially with a dearth of strong first-ballot candidates hitting the ballot in 2026 and 2027, it seems likely now that Jones will make it to Cooperstown via the BBWAA. If he falls short, however, given that there are several of his Atlanta Braves teammates already in the Hall (Chipper Jones, Fred McGriff, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz), he may have friendly advocates when it’s his turn to hit the Era Committee ballot if he doesn’t make it with the writers.

For the reasons why I’ve been resistant to supporting the Hall of Fame candidacy for Andruw Jones, I invite you to take a look at this piece.

Having said that, next year’s ballot has no new slam-dunk candidates, and I expect to put him as one of my ten picks on my virtual ballot. I have written this about other players. When a player has the consensus of two-thirds of the BBWAA electorate, that’s a sign to me that maybe they’re right and I’m wrong.

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The 13 Players with Under 50% but more than 5% of the vote

There are thirteen players who got anywhere from 5.1% to 39.8% of the vote and will return to the ballot for 2026. Although history has shown that dozens of players have climbed from under 50% to over 75% in the years to follow, there are reasons to doubt it will happen for most of these players.

Chase Utley – 2B (39.8% in his 2nd year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Philadelphia Phillies (2003-15), Los Angeles Dodgers (2015-18)
• Career: 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, .275 BA, .358 OBP, .465 SLG
• Career: 117 OPS+, 64.5 WAR
• Career: 154 SB (87.5% success rate, best all-time MLB with min 100 SB)
• 6-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Member of 2008 World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies
• Hit five home runs in the 2009 World Series

After debuting on the 2025 ballot with 28.8% of the vote, Chase Utley had a nice bump to 39.8%. That’s still a bit disappointing for his supporters, given that he was sitting at 52.1% on the pre-announcement ballots, as recorded by Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker.

Generally speaking, the writers who choose to keep their votes private are a bit stingier and a bit more “old school,” relying on traditional counting statistics, while the writers who share their ballots publicly are more likely to rely on sabermetrics. Utley’s case relies on extraordinary defensive metrics, which gave him a 64.5 career WAR. His traditional stats (.275 BA, 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, 1,885 Hits) do not leap off the page.

There are plenty of players to debut with between 25% and 30% of the vote who went on to earn a spot in the Hall of Fame on a future BBWAA ballot. As we’ve already discussed, four recent players to debut at 20% or less (Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, and Billy Wagner) have recently made it over the 75% finish line.

Key stat: in the last 40 years of the BBWAA vote, there have been 18 players (including Felix Hernandez this year) to earn between 20% and 39.9% of the vote on their first ballot.

Here is a list of the fifteen non-PED-linked players to debut between 20% and 39.9% on the ballots from 1976-2025.

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Eight of those fifteen players eventually made the Hall of Fame. Two who didn’t (Curt Schilling and Omar Vizquel) saw their Hall of Fame candidacies derailed by off-field issues.

I’m a writer who is not a member of the BBWAA and, thus, do not have an official vote, but I spend more time thinking about and writing about Hall of Fame candidates than all but a handful of the actual BBWAA members. I’ve been reluctant to endorse Utley because I don’t trust the defensive metrics that are the cornerstone of his Cooperstown candidacy. You can see why by clicking here.

However, I would have included him on my virtual ballot this year if I had 11 spots, and will likely include him next year.

Alex Rodriguez (37.1%) and Manny Ramirez (34.3%)

A-Rod and Manny are the two candidates on the current ballot who were actually suspended from Major League Baseball for using PEDs. As a result, they are in voting quicksand. A-Rod was on the ballot for the fourth time, Manny for the ninth.

The writers are “dug in” with these great hitters. They’re not going to make it to the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA, not this year, not ever.

A-Rod was clearly a much better player than Ramirez was, which explains why his vote tally is slightly higher. Still, it’s clear that the writers have put them in the same PED-loser bucket.

In December 2022, the Eras Committee thoroughly rejected two of the greatest players of all time (Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens). Each superstar received fewer than 4 out of 16 committee votes in a process that required at least 12 votes for a plaque in Cooperstown. Meanwhile, Fred McGriff went 16 for 16, while Bonds and Clemens did so poorly that the Hall did not even release their exact vote tallies.

The point here is that there is an obviously institutional position at the Hall of Fame (and with the living Hall of Famers) that PED users are not welcome in Cooperstown. A-Rod and Manny aren’t going to get in either via the BBWAA or the Era Committee anytime soon. Perhaps decades later, there will be a re-evaluation, but for now, they’re all out.

Andy Pettitte (27.9% in his 7th year on the ballot)

Pettitte was a prolific postseason pitcher, and his 256 career wins are unlikely to be surpassed by many (or any) more active pitchers, but he needed to take advantage of the weaker ballots in the last two years and is going nowhere.

Pettitte admitted to once using human growth hormone, so he has the PED taint. Additionally, his career record is easy to diminish because he always pitched for top-tier teams. He’s not going to make the Hall via the BBWAA, but he did make a big gain this year (getting more than double of his support from 2024), likely because his career statistics are similar to those of CC Sabathia (and CC was elected on the first ballot).

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There’s a decent chance that the Era Committee will smile more favorably, with Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Mike Mussina, and Joe Torre being possible future committee members.

Felix Hernandez (20.6% in his 1st year on the ballot)

Sometimes, timing is everything. Felix Hernandez finished his career with only 169 wins, a 3.42 ERA, and one Cy Young Award. Normally, those career numbers would mean a one-time appearance on the BBWAA ballot. However, given that this was a relatively weak ballot and that he pitched like a Hall of Famer in the first ten years of his career, King Felix had a respectable first-year tally.

Why is timing everything? Well, frankly, this ballot was relatively weak compared to some of the ballots of the late 2010s. In 2018, Johan Santana got just 2.4% of the vote and was booted off future ballots. Santana only won 139 games but won a pair of Cy Youngs. His ERA was an excellent 3.20 (excellent for the era), resulting in a 136 OPS+. But the 2018 ballot was jam-packed with talent, and Santana got squeezed.

As the years pass, writers will be re-evaluating the standards for starting pitchers. Hernandez was arguably the best pitcher in baseball for a ten-year period, which gives him a chance of getting a future nod to the Hall of Fame.

Bobby Abreu (19.5% in his 6th year on the ballot):

Abreu combined power, speed, and durability. He played in 150 or more games in 13 consecutive seasons. The only other player to ever do it was Willie Mays. Abreu was also prolific at drawing walks, leading to a high career on-base percentage (.395).

Given that he had a 60.2 career WAR (which is just slightly higher than Ichiro Suzuki’s), he’ll stick around on the BBWAA ballot for his full 10 years of eligibility. But his odds at a plaque in the Hall are pretty dim.

Jimmy Rollins (18.8% in his 4th year on the ballot)

Rollins has a weak career WAR (47.6) and OPS+ (95), which makes it unlikely that he’ll ever break through with the writers. I do consider him, however, a strong future Era Committee candidate because he’s a popular player who was a cornerstone of a team that won five consecutive N.L. East titles. Additionally, he was unusually durable for a shortstop.

I’ll surprise some people by saying that Rollins has a better than 50% chance of making the Hall eventually.

Omar Vizquel (17.8% in his 8th year on the ballot)

In his third year on the ballot (in 2020), Vizquel got 52.6% of the vote, representing a gain of nearly 10% from the previous year. It seemed inevitable that Vizquel was destined for a plaque in Cooperstown. However, in the last couple of years, Vizquel has been tarnished by two scandals (domestic battery and sexual harassment). As a result, his voting support has plummeted.

Unless Vizquel is exonerated satisfactorily in the two cases, it’s unlikely he’ll make it into the Hall in his final two years of eligibility. In this writer’s opinion, Vizquel didn’t deserve a Hall of Fame plaque anyway.

Dustin Pedroia (11.9% in his 1st year on the ballot):

Pedroia’s career counting stats (140 HR, 1,805 Hits) are underwhelming, which explains why this three-time World Series champion received such a small vote total.

Here’s a nugget from Jayson Stark in The Athletic: “Until that slide, Pedroia had played 11 full seasons — and had won a Rookie of the Year award, an MVP trophy, four Gold Gloves and two World Series. Digest that for a moment. Not to imply that that’s slightly amazing, but … only two players in history can say they did all those things (or more). One is Pedroia. The other? Johnny Bench.”

The general point is that Pedroia has a lot of hardware, and he epitomizes the word “winner.”

I doubt he’ll ever increase his BBWAA vote total to make it to the Hall of Fame, but, like with Pettitte and Rollins, a future Era Committee might be more open to his candidacy.

Mark Buehrle (11.4% in his 5th year on the ballot)

Buehrle was fun to watch. He worked fast, pitched to contact, and was unusually durable, but he never felt like a Hall of Famer. It’s possible that his career will look better a decade or two from now as 200-game-winners start to become extinct.

His case is better than you might think. But it may be harder for him to survive on future ballots now that his BBWAA fate is clearly sealed.

Francisco Rodriguez (10.2% in his 3rd year on the ballot): 

K-Rod will return to the 2026 ballot thanks to having the 6th most saves (437) in baseball history. It’s clear, however, that the writers have (accurately) concluded that he’s not in Billy Wagner’s league.

Rodriguez was brilliant in his tenure with the Angels (2002-08) and set the all-time single-season saves record (with 62 in ’08) but he was not an elite reliever in the years since then.

David Wright (8.1% in his 2nd year on the ballot)

I’ll admit that I’m biased when it comes to David Wright. I’m a lifelong Mets fan, and he is to us what Joe Mauer is to Minnesota Twins fans or Todd Helton to Colorado Rockies fans. Wright’s career was cut short due to injury, and, in fairness, his case is a little light.

I’m glad he survived to be on another ballot, but I doubt he’ll make it through all ten years of eligibility.

For more on David Wright’s career with the Mets and why I gave him my “virtual” vote, please click here.

Torii Hunter (5.1% in his 5th year on the ballot)

Hunter barely re-qualified for the 2026 ballot, clearing the 5% bar by just one vote. He’s got a small but loyal group of supporters, but, as we’ll see, the ballot is going to get a bit more crowded in a few years.

Hunter has some nice basics for an elevator pitch (353 HR, 2,452 Hits, 9 Gold Gloves), so it wouldn’t shock me if a future Eras Committee smiled upon his candidacy.

Coming Attractions to the BBWAA Ballot

Besides the first-time players who earned less than 5% of the vote, there are three players who were on the 2025 BBWAA ballot who won’t be back in 2025: it’s the three inductees (Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner).

Thus, any writer who checked the maximum number of allowed names (10) on this year’s ballot will have up to three more open slots this December.

The first-time candidate pool for 2026 is exceptionally weak: the strongest potential candidates are Cole Hamels, Ryan Braun, and Edwin Encarnacion. This will definitely be the year that Carlos Beltran makes it to the Hall, with Andruw Jones a possibility as well. 2026 will be the final year on the ballot for Manny Ramirez.

The Early Cooperstown Cred Virtual Ballot for 2026

I reserve the right to change my mind, but this will likely be my 2026 virtual ballot:

• Carlos Beltran
• Andruw Jones
• Chase Utley
• Dustin Pedroia
• Bobby Abreu
• Andy Pettitte
• Mark Buehrle
• Felix Hernandez
• David Wright
• Jimmy Rollins

Depending on how the winds are blowing, I could potentially substitute Hamels for one of the others on the list.

The Hall of Fame’s Class of 2026 will likely also feature one or more players who are no longer eligible for the BBWAA ballot. The Contemporary Baseball Era Committee will meet this December to consider previously overlooked players whose primary contributions were from 1980 to 2015.

This is a hard ballot to crack: only eight players out of over three decades of baseball will make the ballot. The top names who are eligible for this ballot for the first time are Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield, Nomar Garciaparra, and Carlos Delgado. There are dozens of other possibilities, including three PED-linked luminaries (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Rafael Palmeiro) who were on the ballot three years ago and got no recorded support. Many in the sabermetric community are eager to see Kenny Lofton on this ballot.

Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and Curt Schilling were on the 2023 ballot and got some votes, but not the 12 out of 16 (75%) required for a plaque. Because of how the Hall recently changed the eligibility criteria, two other strong candidates from the 2020 “Modern Baseball” ballot (Dwight Evans and Lou Whitaker) are also potential candidates.

Predicted Hall of Fame Class of 2026: Beltran, Jones, Kent, and one other player via the Era Committee.

The 2027 Hall of Fame Ballot

In 2027, the top new candidates will be Buster Posey and Jon Lester. Posey will likely get the Ichiro/Sabathia treatment and will likely make the Hall on his first try despite a relatively brief career. Lester will likely get more support than Mark Buehrle has gotten but less than Felix Hernandez. Like Buehrle, Hernandez, Pedroia, and Wright, people with ballot space will vote for Lester to keep his candidacy alive for the future.

If Jones doesn’t make it in 2026, he will likely make it in ’27, which will be his final year on the ballot. This will also be the last year on the ballot for Omar Vizquel.

I’m going to speculate here that Beltran and Jones will make it in 2026. If so, this would be my 2027 virtual ballot.

• Buster Posey
• Chase Utley
• Dustin Pedroia
• Bobby Abreu
• Andy Pettitte
• Mark Buehrle
• Felix Hernandez
• David Wright
• Jimmy Rollins
• Jon Lester or Cole Hamels (I haven’t thought enough about it to make a call here)

Also for 2027 will be the Contemporary Baseball Non-Player Era Committee ballot. Longtime manager Dusty Baker is eligible for this ballot and seems like the most obvious choice. Lou Piniella has been on versions of this ballot three times before and twice fell just one vote shy of the Hall of Fame.

Predicted Hall of Fame Class of 2027: Posey, Baker and Piniella

The 2028 Hall of Fame Ballot

The first-time candidates for 2028 include several big names: Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, and Robinson Cano. Pujols will be a first-ballot inductee and might get 100%. Molina, who has a relatively low WAR (42.3) but 9 Gold Gloves and 10 All-Star berths, will be a controversial case. I expect that he’ll make it on the first ballot with Pujols, but there may be a sabermetric wall due to his poor hitting record.

As for Cano, he’ll be the new Manny Ramirez, clogging up the ballot with performance-only voters but never sniffing 50%. 2028 will also be the final year on the ballot for Andy Pettitte.

So, assuming that Posey has already made the Hall, this would be my potential virtual Hall of Fame ballot for 2028:

• Albert Pujols
• Yadier Molina
• Chase Utley
• Dustin Pedroia
• Bobby Abreu
• Andy Pettitte
• Mark Buehrle
• Felix Hernandez
• David Wright
• Jon Lester or Cole Hamels

The Classic Baseball Committee, which elected Dick Allen and Dave Parker this past December, will meet again to consider eight candidates whose primary contribution to the game was between 1871-1980. Tommy John is the highest-returning vote-getter from last month. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll make it for 2027, but I think he will.

Predicted Hall of Fame Class of 2028: Pujols, Molina, Utley, plus Tommy John and maybe one other player via the Era Committee.

The 2029 Hall of Fame Ballot

Lots of big names will be joining the party in 2029, led by Miguel Cabrera, an easy first-ballot choice. Stathead favorites Zack Greinke and Joey Votto will join the ballot as well and get lots of support. I expect Greinke will do better than Votto but expect both to make the Hall of Fame, though Votto will likely not make it on the first ballot, and Greinke might not either.

Other first-time candidates in 2029 include Evan Longoria, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Adam Wainwright, Corey Kluber, and Madison Bumgarner.

With so many strong candidates in 2029, a virtual ballot contains some hard choices. Here is what it might look like:

• Miguel Cabrera
• Zack Greinke
• Joey Votto
• Dustin Pedroia
• Evan Longoria ???
• Felix Hernandez
• Bobby Abreu or Mark Buehrle
• Jimmy Rollins
• David Wright
• Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, or Madison Bumgarner

Since this will be Abreu’s 10th year on the ballot and Buehrle’s 9th, I might determine one or both of them to be “lost causes” and make room for new players. The same may be true for David Wright, though it would break my heart.

Unless the Hall of Fame changes the Era Committee schedule, the Contemporary Baseball Player Era Committee will meet again in December 2028. New candidates who will be eligible for the first time include Manny Ramirez, Omar Vizquel, Jim Edmonds, Jorge Posada, and Johan Santana.

Predicted Hall of Fame Class of 2029: Cabrera, Greinke, and, from the Era Committee, who knows.

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