Three years from now, in December 2024, Ichiro Suzuki will be on the Hall of Fame ballot for the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) for the first time. It is extremely likely that he will get over 75% of the vote and be inducted into Cooperstown in the summer of 2025. Suzuki’s long and illustrious career ended in March 2019 after participating in two official Major League Baseball games in Tokyo, Japan. The Oakland A’s and Seattle Mariners played two regular-season MLB games at the Tokyo Dome. Ichiro started both games in right field, going 0 for 5 with a walk.
Ichiro, who began his 28-year professional career in 1992 with the Orix Blue Wave in the Japan Pacific League, took a final bow in his homeland while wearing a Mariners uniform, bringing an official end to a career in America’s big leagues that spanned 19 different calendar years.
With those two appearances in official MLB contests, Ichiro’s Hall of Fame clock was postponed for one year. Still, in 2025 he will become the first Japanese-born player to be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. In so many ways, ever since he showed up in Arizona in late February 2001 as a 27-year old rookie, Ichiro has been one of a kind. There is no career in the history of Major League Baseball quite like Ichiro’s.
Cooperstown Cred: Ichiro Suzuki (RF)
- Mariners (2001-12 & ’18-19), Yankees (2012-14), Marlins (2015-17)
- Career: .311 BA, 3,089 Hits, 509 Stolen Bases
- Career: 107 OPS+, 60.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
- 10-time All-Star
- 10-time Gold Glove Award winner
- 2001 A.L. MVP and Rookie of the Year (.350 BA, 242 Hits, 56 SB)
- 2004: 262 Hits (highest single-season total in MLB history)
- One of 4 players in the last 100 years with 3,000 hits & 500 SB (Rickey Henderson, Paul Molitor, Lou Brock)
(Cover Photo: Seattle Post-Intelligencer)
Ichiro’s First Career in Japan
Given that Suzuki’s official playing career extended into 2019, he officially played parts of 28 different seasons in professional baseball. He made his pro debut at the age of 18 in 1992 with the Orix Blue Wave. Then, in 1994, at 20, he became a full-time player and became an instant star, hitting a league-leading .385 while posting 210 hits in just 130 games (the entire season in Japan).
Ichiro then led the Japan Pacific League in batting for six more seasons, posting a .359 average for those seven campaigns. During Ichiro’s tenure with the Blue Wave, he won 3 MVP trophies and the 1996 Japanese Championship. Besides the batting championships, Ichiro won seven straight Gold Gloves and made seven consecutive All-Star teams.
While playing in Japan, Ichiro also showed some power, averaging 17 home runs per season from 1994-2000.
Instant Star in Seattle
When Suzuki decided to test his mettle against the sport’s best, it was hardly settled that a Japanese position player could successfully make the transition to the Major Leagues. Pitcher Hideo Nomo had become an instant sensation with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1995, but there was a great deal of skepticism that a position player could do the same.
The Seattle Mariners won the “posting” process on November 30th, 2000, to secure the right to sign Ichiro and subsequently inked him to a three-year contract. In March 2001, not a single player in all of Arizona generated the same kind of buzz that Ichiro did. Close to 100 Japanese media members chronicled everything he did that spring in Peoria, Arizona.
Once the regular season started, the rookie right fielder made a statement that he belonged. In his first 14 games in the majors, he hit .377 while posting two four-hit games. Then, he became the first rookie ever to draw the most votes for the All-Star game. By the end of the year, he had finished with an A.L.-leading .350 batting average while leading the majors with 242 hits and 56 stolen bases.
The Mariners, led by their 27-year-old rookie right fielder, won 116 games to capture the A.L. West easily. In his first taste of postseason baseball, Ichiro hit .600 in a 5-game series win in the ALDS against the Cleveland Indians. The season, however, would end in disappointment for Ichiro and the M’s when they were vanquished by the 3-time defending World Champion New York Yankees in 5 games in the ALCS.
As an aside, what makes the 116-win Mariner squad from 2001 so extraordinary is that they did it without the help of Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., or Alex Rodriguez, mega-stars who had all left via trade or free agency in the previous several seasons. That team, instead, was led by Ichiro along with Edgar Martinez, Bret Boone, John Olerud, Mike Cameron, and pitchers Jamie Moyer and Freddy Garcia.
Ten Years of Unique Brilliance (2001-2010)
Sadly for Ichiro Suzuki and the fans of the Mariners, the team never returned to the playoffs since that 2001 campaign. The ’02 and ’03 editions both won 93 games, but that wasn’t enough to win either the A.L. West or the Wild Card slot.
The M’s absence from October baseball is a shame because the more casual fans could not see this singular talent. Ichiro’s biggest moment on the national stage was probably in the 2007 All-Star game when he went 3 for 3 and hit an inside-the-park home run at AT&T Park in San Francisco, leading the A.L. to a 5-4 win over the N.L.
Simply put, from 2001-2010, Suzuki was one of the very best players in all of baseball. Here’s what he accomplished during those 10 seasons:
- Averaged .331 with 224 Hits, 105 Runs, and 38 SB for those 10 seasons
- Averaged 159 games played per season
- 10 straight seasons with 200 or more hits (only player in MLB history to do this)
- 10 straight Gold Gloves
- 10 consecutive All-Star Games (9 as an elected starter)
- Posted 54.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 3rd best among position players (behind Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez)
Suzuki was a genuinely unique Major League hitter in that he thrived even when hitting the ball on the ground. From 2001-2010, the average major league hitter posted a .225 batting average on ground balls. With his slashing style of hitting, giving him a head start down the line, the left-handed-hitting Ichiro hit a whopping .305 when he put the ball on the ground, the best among the 149 players with at least 1,100 ground balls put in play over those ten years.
It might surprise you to know that Ichiro was not the leader in bunt base hits during these ten years. In fact, he was merely tied for 7th best with 66 bunt hits. However, what won’t surprise you is that he hit .660 when bunting for a hit, the best figure among the 25 players with at least 40 such hits for those ten years.
As a base-runner, Ichiro was one of the best. Using the base-running component of WAR, he was #1 in the game from 2001-2010 due to a superb 81% stolen base success rate and because he was rarely thrown out on the bases. In addition, Ichiro knew when to take an extra base and when not to.
Defensively, Ichiro had a cannon-launcher for an arm while displaying great range and Spiderman abilities to climb walls to take away home runs. During these 10 years, Ichiro led all right fielders in putouts 7 times. Using the defensive component of WAR, he was the 11th best defensive player overall and #1 among right fielders.
Even if he had retired at the age of 36 after these ten Major League seasons, Ichiro would have had a strong case for the Hall of Fame.
2011-2019:
There is no need to pull punches here. From 2011 until his retirement, Ichiro Suzuki was not an All-Star caliber player. Of course, this happens with most players, and it usually happens more severely with players who make their living with their legs.
In 2011, for the first time in 17 professional seasons, Ichiro failed to hit .300. Even as he remained super-durable (playing 161 games), he hit .272, logging 184 hits, his first MLB season below 200.
In the years that followed, as he started to transition from a full-time player to a part-time player, Suzuki did not hit over .300 again. For a player who never drew a lot of walks, his value as an offensive player was limited when not hitting .300.
In 2012, with the Mariners hopelessly out of contention for the third straight season, Ichiro was given a chance to play for a contender when he was traded to the New York Yankees. Ironically, in the last game I ever saw Ichiro play in person, he hit two solo home runs for the Yankees, leading them to a 4-1 August win over Boston at Yankee Stadium.
The ’12 Yankees made the playoffs, advancing to the ALCS but were swept in 4 games by the Detroit Tigers. It was Ichiro’s last appearance in October. In total, he hit .275 with a .710 in those 9 postseason tilts.
Mr. 3,000
Ichiro Suzuki played two more seasons in the Bronx before signing as a free agent with the Florida Marlins in January 2015. Then, on August 7th, 2016, he solidified his already certain Hall of Fame status by collecting his 3,000 hit, a triple off the right field wall in Colorado.
Suzuki was essentially a backup in an outfield with three stars (Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna). With all three healthy for most of 2017, Ichiro started only 22 games, with 109 appearances as a pinch-hitter.
The Marlins traded Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna in the 2017-18 off-season but decided not to retain the 44-year old Suzuki. Instead, he signed with his original MLB team, the Seattle Mariners, on March 7th. Due to some injuries in the outfield, Ichiro started 13 of the team’s first 29 games but could not help the team. In 15 games total in 2018, Ichiro hit just .205 with a .255 OBP and a woeful .460 OPS.
To wrap up, I have two more questions I’d like to cover:
- Does his career 60.0 WAR make Ichiro a borderline Hall of Famer?
- Should Ichiro be considered the all-time Hit King, or Pete Rose?
No Art of WAR for Ichiro
OK, I think most readers will regard this as a somewhat silly exercise, but I’m going to cover it anyway. WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is a “counting” stat, just like hits or steals with one major exception. WAR can count backward. If the advanced formula that calculates WAR (see the Glossary for more details) ranks a player as being less valuable than a “replacement player” (a player readily available in the minor leagues), your WAR can go backward.
This happened with Ichiro. After his ten brilliant seasons, his career WAR was 54.8. In the nine years since it was just 5.2. Ichiro was sitting at 60.8 after the 2016 campaign, but his last three years dropped him back to 60.0. Despite superb career metrics in fielding and base-running, Ichiro’s WAR calculation was depressed by his relative ineffectiveness as a hitter since 2011. His .268 average, .310 OBP, and .343 SLG from 2011-18 translate to a well-below average 83 OPS+.
So, his career WAR is 60.0. If you don’t know how good 60.0 is, it’s good, but not great. Bobby Abreu has a better career WAR (60.2). It’s less than Jim Edmonds‘ total of 60.4, which was good enough to get him booted off the Hall of Fame ballot after just one appearance.
Still, it’s almost the same as the WAR of Vladimir Guerrero (59.5), who got a plaque in Cooperstown in 2018. Sometimes WAR under-appreciates the significance of a player’s career. That’s the case with Ichiro. He was a unique talent who for ten years dominated in all three aspects of the position player game (hitting, fielding, and running). And, by the way, Ichiro did not need 3,000 hits to become a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
To make sure my thinking was aligned with most serious baseball fans, I ran a poll on Twitter a few years ago, asking if Ichiro was a “great, unique” Hall of Famer, a “borderline” Hall of Famer, or an overrated player not worthy of the Hall. In this unscientific survey, with 213 respondents, 93% called him a great and unique player, with 5% tabbing him a borderline Hall of Famer and just 2% voting that he was not worthy.
The All-Time Hit King: Ichiro Suzuki or Pete Rose?
Ichiro didn’t need 3,000 hits to make the Hall of Fame, but he got them anyway, doing it at the age of 42 despite not starting his MLB career until he was 27 years old.
Before getting that 3,000th hit, Ichiro did reach a different kind of milestone. On Wednesday, June 15th, 2016, in San Diego, Ichiro got his 4,257th professional hit. With two hits that day, he raised his MLB total to 2,979, still shy of the 3,000-hit plateau. Still, if you add in his 1,278 hits in Japan’s Pacific League, on that day, Ichiro passed Pete Rose as the all-time professional Hit King (Charlie Hustle finished his career with 4,256 knocks).
With his final 110 hits since June 15th, 2016, Ichiro finished his professional career with 4,367 hits, 111 more than Rose’s 4,256.
So, who is the all-time Hit King? Ichiro with his combined 4,367 in Japan and MLB or Rose with his 4,256 all in MLB? Allow me to offer an opinion on this topic. Of course, Pete Rose is still the all-time Hit King. The leagues are not the same.
Let me ask another question. Who do you consider to be the all-time Home Run King? Most of you will say, Barry Bonds, who hit 762. Many others, however, will say it’s still Hank Aaron (with 755) because Bonds “enhanced” his career total with steroid use. Finally, how many of you think the all-time Home Run King is Sadaharu Oh, who hit 868 home runs in the Nippon Professional Baseball League from 1959-1980?
If you count the combined home runs in the USA and Japan, Oh’s 868 is 100 greater than Bonds’ total of 762 and 113 more than Aaron’s 755.
Obviously, nobody in the U.S. ever says that Sadaharu Oh is the all-time Home Run King (compared to Bonds and Aaron) because the leagues were different, and the quality of competition was different. It would be great to go back in time and bring Oh to the United States to see how well he would have done. Of course, we’ll never know, but no serious person ever ranked him as a greater home run hitter than Henry Aaron.
So, the same standard should apply to Suzuki and Rose, right? Well, that’s how this writer feels but let’s for a moment attempt to level the playing field. First, let’s wipe out all of Pete Rose’s statistics before his age 27 season. Then, let’s look at what he did from age 27 to age 45 and compare it to what Ichiro accomplished in the majors from his rookie year at age 27 until his “retirement” yesterday.
| Player | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose | 3357 | 1700 | 111 | 1012 | 1313 | 158 | .305 | .381 | .408 | 120 | 61.4 |
| Suzuki | 3089 | 1420 | 117 | 780 | 646 | 509 | .311 | .355 | .402 | 107 | 60.0 |
Well, sports fans, there you have it. Even if you take away the first 899 hits of Charlie Hustle’s career (from 1963-67), he still tops Suzuki’s by 268 hits. And, overall, he was the better hitter, doubling Ichiro’s walk rate even while piling up the hits.
WAR puts the American icon and the Japanese icon much closer (because of Ichiro’s superior defense and base-running), but it’s hard to make an argument that age 27-to-44 Ichiro was a better player than age 27-to-45 Rose.
Conclusion
Needless to say, not being the all-time hits leader or not being the same caliber player as Pete Rose is hardly a case against Ichiro Suzuki for the Hall of Fame. Rose would have been a first-ballot selection if it weren’t for the gambling scandal. Ichiro has no such scandals. Forget about what he did in Japan. What he did in the USA makes him an easy choice for the Hall of Fame. If you’re an Ichiro fan, whether from Seattle, Florida, or Japan, you can start planning a trip to Cooperstown, New York, in late July 2025. He’ll be on stage receiving a plaque on one of those Sundays.
Thanks for reading.
Please follow me on Twitter @cooperstowncred.
Chris Bodig
1) 194 of Rose’s hits were after he became manager of the Reds. He was only batting .259 when he joined Cincinnati from Montreal. He would not have gotten the playing time he did at that age and ability if he had not been penciling in the lineups himself. Ichiro probably would have been a starter and adding more hits the last couple of years, too, if he was the Miami & Seattle manager.
2) I recall at least two of the bats Rose used in his 40s were X-rayed by collectors and found to be corked. Was that ever proven to be incorrect? Because if it wasn’t… Rose is not the hit king from ages 27-45.
3) Clearly, Rose was better at getting on base, but we’re talking about hits. Rose never batted above .348, while Ichiro batted .350 or higher four times. 262 hits in 2004 — nuff said.
We can also expand the conversation to include the Negro Leagues vs. the Major Leagues. Some of the Negro League players toiled away in relative anonymity, but were still included in the Baseball HOF later on. They were still considered professional baseball players, just not Major Leaguers due to segregation. Some of these men, in their prime, were considered to be superior talents to whoever the Majors had at the time. We’re going to have in the HOF players from different eras who were objectively the best players ever, irrespective of professional league or on whichever continent they played. What is agreed is that the best players “more than likely” will have played in the Major Leagues, but I don’t believe it has to be a guaranteed qualifier that they did. I think the National Baseball HOF needs to perhaps consider, in due time, the professional ballplayer rather than where he played and what league he played in. Basketball already does this; the Naismith Basketball HOF immortalizes excellence wherever it is found, international or domestic, professional or amateur. Will our game of baseball reciprocate? I don’t believe so, but, we’ve seen change happen in other areas before. Who knows if it will evolve again. It is a discussion worthy of debate.
Last time I checked, Barry Bonds hit 762 home runs over the course of his career, not 768…😬
Thanks for catching that goof, Graham! I guess it’s not as memorable a number as 755 or 714.
Chris, a “poll on Twitter of serious baseball fans?” There’s so many things wrong with that statement.
Regardless, Ichiro is a no-doubt first ballot HOFer. I regard him as the all-time hit king for professional baseball, but not for MLB, though I have little doubt he would be if he had started his career as a major leaguer.
One thing has always puzzled me about Ichiro, though, and that is why he didn’t have more runs scored. For someone who got on base as much as he did, I would think he should have a higher total. Also feel that way about Tony Gwynn. Runs scored is a very important and underrated statistic IMO, especially for a leadoff hitter.
The runs you score are dependent on the rest of the team, aside from power hitters that drive themselves in 40+ times a year, they are dependent on others. That’s why runs scored, while a standard counting stat, doesn’t really speak to an individual’s contribution.
Respectfully disagree. While good power hitters behind you in the lineup definitely help, there’s a lot of things that go into scoring runs besides being on base when a HR is hit. Ability to get on base is big, steal bases, go from first to third on a single to right field, good speed to score on fly balls that aren’t deep in the outfield, not buying into fakes by the defense, aggressive without getting picked off, etc. Derek Jeter was one of the top base runners over his career in terms of these things and he scored over 1900 runs.
Does this mean you also value the RBI as a valuable stat? It’s just the flip side of the coin, can’t knock anyone in if they aren’t on base (knocking self in excluded again). Those things help, of course they do, but the bigger driver is who comes after you… going first to third on a single won’t do much if the next three all pop out, or after 1 out, next guy hits into a double play.
Going from first to third on a single can lead to scoring on a groundout with less than two outs. Jeter was a master at taking the extra base. Remember Game 4 of ALCS in 2004, Red Sox vs. Yankees? Dave Roberts pinch ran for Bill Mueller who had walked, stole second and scored on a single to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth, the very definition of manufacturing a run.
You’re obviously not going to judge a leadoff man on RBIs because his job isn’t driving in runs, it’s to score them. Teams that can manufacture runs usually are the most successful come playoff time because the pitching is at a higher level than the regular season.
>>To make sure my thinking was aligned with most serious baseball fans, I ran a poll on Twitter a few years ago, asking if Ichiro was a “great, unique” Hall of Famer, a “borderline” Hall of Famer, or an overrated player not worthy of the Hall.<<
False dichotomy, undistributed middle or something.
I'd call him "Solid HOFer" without either "great/unique" or "borderline."
Had he played his whole career in the US? 80 WAR, maybe 85. In either place, he tops new inductee Larry Walker, and Reggie Jackson, in names of note, but is behind Kaline, Clemente and Robby, as well as the true icons of right field, like Ruth, Aaron and Musial. That's "solid," but not "great/unique." (It also puts him ahead of Peter Edward Rose.)