In His Final Season, Has CC Sabathia Crossed the Hall of Fame Finish Line?

Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium, New York Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia made the final appearance of his 19-year Major League Baseball career. In a relief outing in Game 4 of the ALCS against the Houston Astros, after throwing 17 pitches, Sabathia’s left shoulder would not allow him to continue. His shoulder popped out of its socket when he retired Aledmys Diaz on a flyout to shallow right field. Amazingly, he threw three more pitches to the next batter (George Springer) but the pain was too much to bear. After consulting with manager Aaron Boone and trainer Steve Donohue, Sabathia threw a warm-up pitch with his separated shoulder but it was obvious he could not continue.

It certainly wasn’t the way Sabathia wanted his career to end, walking off the diamond with trainer Steve Donohue. Even in that moment, Sabathia left the field as a wounded gladiator, one who put everything into the game, ending his career as he lived it.

“I think it’s just kind of fitting… I threw until I couldn’t anymore… That’s what I signed up to do… Pitch as long as I could and as hard as I could and take the ball every time out. Yeah, I have no regrets at all.”

— CC Sabathia (October 18, 2019)

“In a weird way, [it was] kind of a perfect way to go out. He’s been the ultimate teammate, competitor, gamer, left everything on the field, left everything he had on the mound.”

— Yankees manager Aaron Boone (October 18, 2019)

“That man gave his all… They had to rip the ball out of his hand and that jersey off. He got everything out of that arm. That’s a warrior right there. That’s why he’s been a leader for so many years and has so much respect throughout the game and in this stadium. It was tough to see. That’s our leader. He left it all out there.”

— Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (October 17, 2019)

“It’s tough man. He’s a great person, a great player… He’s gonna be a Hall of Famer. To see a guy like that go out like that is not the way you want to see it.”

— Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks (October 17, 2019)

The focus of this piece will be whether Hicks is right, that the 6’6″, 300 pound left-hander walked off the field as a future Hall of Famer.

Milestones Reached in 2019

On June 19th at Yankee Stadium, CC Sabathia won the 250th career game of his career. The big southpaw tossed 6 innings of one-run ball, mixing in 7 strikeouts against 3 hits and 3 walks in a 12-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays.

Several weeks earlier, on April 30th in Arizona, in the second inning, Sabathia struck out the side, logging his 2,998th, 2,999th and 3,000th career strikeouts. In so doing, the veteran left-handed starter became the 17th pitcher in all of baseball history to reach the 3,000 strikeout mark. Sabathia is only the third lefty to reach that plateau, the others being Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton.

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With both 250 wins and 3,000 strikeouts, Sabathia became just the 14th hurler in MLB history to reach both numbers, joining Roger Clemens and 12 already enshrined Hall of Fame starters.

During the broadcast of CC’s 250th win, YES Network’s Michael Kay noted that Sabathia ascribed much more significance to his 3,000th strikeout than the prospect of his 250th win.

“That’s a hard one to grasp. There have been some great pitchers who’ve played in this game, but being the third lefty is just incredible.”

— CC Sabathia (April 30, 2019)

Before the season, the 38-year old Sabathia announced that 2019 would be his final MLB campaign. Having turned 39 in July, his career is now officially over.

Cooperstown Cred: CC Sabathia (SP)

• Cleveland Indians (2001-08); Milwaukee Brewers (2008); New York Yankees (2009-19)
• Career: 251-161 (.609 WL%), 3.74 ERA, 3,093 strikeouts
• Career: 116 ERA+, 62.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 6-time All-Star
• Won 2007 Cy Young Award (19-7, 3.21 ERA, 5.65 SO/BB ratio)
• 4 other times in Top 5 of Cy Young Award voting
• Career WAR is better than 25 already-inducted Hall of Fame SP

(cover photo: Newsday)

This is a 3rd update of a piece written last November and re-posted late this April after his 3,000th strikeout.

Career Highlights

Carsten Charles Sabathia was born on July 21, 1980 in Vallejo, California, on the east side of the Bay Area. His grandmother found his full name a mouthful so she dubbed him CC.

Sabathia played three sports while at Vallejo High School. Standing a full 6’3″ by the time he was a freshman, Sabathia was a star power forward on the hardwood, a tight end on the gridiron and pitcher on the diamond.

As a football player, he was recruited by UCLA and the University of Hawaii. Young CC, ultimately, chose baseball and was the 1st round pick (20th overall) of the Cleveland Indians in 1998.

Early Years with the Cleveland Indians (2001-06)

After just three years in the minors, Sabathia broke camp with the Tribe in 2001, at the age of 20. Sabathia went 17-5 with a 4.39 ERA in his first season, which was good enough to finish 2nd to Ichiro Suzuki in the Rookie of the Year balloting.

The 2001 campaign represented the end of the mini-dynasty of the Cleveland Indians. The Tribe won the A.L. Central, going 91-71, before losing the ALDS in 5 games to the 116-win Seattle Mariners. The rookie left-hander acquitted himself well in his first October start, winning Game 3 with 6 innings of 2-run ball.

For the next five years (2002-06), the Indians missed the playoffs, while Sabathia grew as a starting pitcher. Although he made two All-Star teams in 2003 and ’04, the big left-hander became a top-flight starter in ’06.

In this, his sixth season in the majors, Sabathia established career bests with a 3.22 ERA, 1.173 WHIP and 172 strikeouts. In an era where complete games started to disappear, CC completed a ML-best 6 of his starts.

Cy Young Campaign (2007)

In 2007, Sabathia was the A.L. Cy Young Award winner, going 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA and 6.3 WAR. Thanks in great part to his efforts, the Indians returned to playoff baseball for the first time since ’01.

Sabathia’s regular season success, however, did not translate to October, perhaps in part to his career high of 241 innings (31 above his previous innings ceiling).

CC won Game 1 of the ALDS (against the New York Yankees), but gave up 3 runs in 5 innings while walking 6 batters.

The Tribe advanced to the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox. In Game 1 at Fenway Park, Sabathia was pounded for 8 runs in 4.1 innings, resulting in a 10-3 loss. Still, the Indians won the next three games and had a chance to clinch in Game 5 at Jacobs Field.

CC pitched better but still gave up 4 runs in 6.1 innings. In the meantime, the Sox’ Josh Beckett was brilliant, tossing 8 innings of 1-run ball. The Sox won 7-1.

Sadly for Cleveland, the Red Sox blew out the Indians in Games 6 and 7, dashing the Tribe’s Fall Classic Hopes.

The Trade to Milwaukee (2008)

After getting within one victory of the World Series in 2007, the next season was a disappointment for the Cleveland Indians. On July 6th, with multiple players on the disabled list, the team was a woeful 37-51. Sabathia had been decent but not up to his previous two seasons, posting a 3.83 ERA in 18 starts.

General Manager Mark Shapiro decided to trade the free-agent-to-be, dealing Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers in a four-for-one trade that ultimately sent future star Michael Brantley to Cleveland.

In a new league and back in a pennant race, Sabathia was rejuvenated. CC made 17 starts with the Brewers, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA (which translates to a 255 ERA+). In those 17 starts, CC tossed 7 complete games with 3 shutouts. Even with only 17 starts, Sabathia finished 5th in the NL Cy Young balloting.

Despite the fact that he was about to become a free agent and had hundreds of millions of reasons to protect his left arm, CC took the hill on three days of rest in his final three starts, something unheard of in the modern game.

All in all, the Brew Crew edged the New York Mets by one game to win the N.L. Wild Card spot, the franchise’s first post-season berth in 26 long years. This would not have been possible without the efforts of CC Sabathia.

The Brewers were ultimately defeated in the NLDS by the eventual World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, but Sabathia had delivered a thrilling stretch run to the fans of the Crew.

New York Yankees (2009-2019)

Having established himself as a Cy Young winner and selfless teammate, the 28-year old Sabathia signed a 7-year, $161 million contract with the New York Yankees. The contract was by far the biggest ever inked by a pitcher in baseball history.

The Bronx Bombers had missed the playoffs in 2008 for the first time since 1993 and needed an ace starting pitcher to replace the retiring Mike Mussina. In the meantime, the team needed another star to help sell high-priced tickets in the latest version of Yankee Stadium, which made its debut in ’09.

Four Brilliant Seasons in the Bronx (2009-2012)

CC Sabathia was worth every penny for the Yankees for his first four seasons in the Bronx, especially the first three.

From 2009-11, CC went 59-23 (.720 WL%) with a 3.18 ERA. He finished 3rd or 4th in the Cy Young voting each season.

In 2009, the Yankees won 103 games and blitzed through the postseason to win the 27th World Series championship in franchise history. As for Sabathia, years of October disappointments ended in Yankee pinstripes. In five postseason starts, the Yankees’ new ace went 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA.

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Sabathia’s contract, as large as it was, had an opt-out clause after three years. After the 2011 season, CC exercised that option. He decided, ultimately, to stay in New York; the team added an extra year and $30 million to his existing deal. An additional vesting option brought the total value to $208 million over 9 seasons.

The Yankees’ ace had another good season in 2012 (15-6, 3.38 ERA) but that would be his last as a premier starting pitcher.

Hitting Rock Bottom (2013-2015)

From 2006-2012, CC Sabathia had been durable and consistently good. He averaged 17 wins per season, 227 innings pitched per season, while posting a 3.14 ERA (good enough for a 140 ERA+, which was 40% above league average). Using Wins Above Replacement, Sabathia had a 38.4 WAR for those 7 seasons (5.5 per year).

In 2013, Sabathia remained durable but struggled for the first time since his early years. With his fastball velocity dipping for the third year in a row, CC went 14-13 with a 4.78 ERA (a well-below average 84 ERA+). His WAR was exactly 0.0.

A variety of explanations were offered for Sabathia’s struggles in 2013 but a significant amount of weight loss in the previous off-season was listed by many as the #1 culprit.

2014 was worse. CC only managed 8 starts in April and May (with a 5.28 ERA) before hitting the disabled list. He was diagnosed with a degenerative condition in the cartilage in his right knee. In July, he underwent season-ending surgery on that knee.

Sabathia was mostly healthy in 2015 but remained ineffective, going 6-10 with a 4.73 ERA in 29 starts. The Yankees in 2015 made the post-season for the first time in three years but CC was not on the playoff roster. Instead, he checked into rehab for alcohol abuse.

Sabathia’s Renaissance (2016-2019)

In 3 of the last 4 seasons, alcohol free and mostly healthy, CC Sabathia was an effective back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Even though he was no longer the top-flight ace he used to be, CC was, at least until this season, solid and helpful to his team.

In 2016-2019, Sabathia went 37-32 (.536 WL%) with a respectable 3.98 ERA. His 110 ERA+ was solidly above league average and his 8.8 WAR was useful to the Yankees. Among the 57 starters who pitched at least 450 innings from 2016-18, Sabathia’s 8.3 WAR was 28th best. That’s not Cy Young worthy but it’s a nice way to wind down a great career.

It’s odd to call a 6’6″, 300-pound man a “crafty left-hander” but that’s what Sabathia became. The mid 90’s fastball of his prime was replaced by a high 80’s cutter, a pitch his former teammate Andy Pettitte helped him refine. According to his Fan Graphs page, CC used his cutter 42% of the time in 2018 (43% in 2019), compared to less than 1% in his last ineffective campaign (2015).

Also according to Fan Graphs, among all pitchers in 2018 with at least 150 IP, Sabathia’s soft contact rate of 25.1% was the fourth best in the game, behind younger aces Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom.

In addition, according to MLB’s Statcast, Sabathia allowed the lowest average exit velocity (84.4 MPH) among the 83 American League pitchers with at least 250 batters faced in 2018. These numbers clearly indicate that the big man still had something to offer as his career came to an end.

The Case for CC Sabathia for the Hall of Fame

At the end of 2012, his age 31 season, CC Sabathia had a 191-102 record with a 3.50 ERA which, due to pitching in the American League and during the end of the PED era, translated into a ERA+ of 125. His career WAR was 53.2 after 2012.

Through the age 31 seasons of every Hall of Fame pitcher, only 24 had a higher WAR by that point in their respective careers. 43 others had not yet progressed to that WAR number (including recent inductees Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Randy Johnson, not to mention luminaries like Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer Bob Gibson, Warren Spahn, and Nolan Ryan).

Of course, the six years that followed involved three lost seasons and three respectable but not Cooperstown-caliber seasons. The question now is whether CC’s accomplishments in these last four campaigns have been enough to put a cherry on top of a Hall of Fame sundae.

Sabathia’s Hall of Fame case involves two planks: he was one of the best pitchers in the game for a 7-year stretch (the “peak” case) and his overall career numbers are in line with what you would expect from a Cooperstown-inducted hurler.

Sabathia’s Seven-Year Peak (2006-2012)

CC Sabathia had an excellent peak, from 2006-2012, where he was arguably the second best pitcher in baseball, second only to the late Roy Halladay, who was a first ballot selection to the Hall of Fame’s Class of 2019.

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Sabathia’s hallmark during these seven seasons was that he was durable and consistently good. I wouldn’t say that he was ever the best pitcher in the game, even in 2007, his Cy Young campaign. He went 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA. The N.L. Cy Young winner (Jake Peavy) went 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA. Even when adjusting for park effects, Peavy’s 158 ERA+ bested CC’s 141.

It’s my opinion that Sabathia was a top 10 hurler for six of those seven years (2006-2011) but only twice was he one of the top 5.

By contrast, by my Cooperstown Cred methodology (explained in this piece about Mike Mussina, another 2019 Cooperstown inductee), Halladay was a top 5 pitcher in six different campaigns. Justin Verlander has been top 5 five different times (including this year). I have Johan Santana as the best pitcher in MLB for three years in a row (2004-06) with another top 5 the year after.

Incidentally, Santana is an example of a player with a Hall of Fame case that relies exclusively on peak value. Because Santana had no longevity, he was booted off the ballot with just 2.4% of the vote in January 2018.

This is an important point. Sabathia’s peak was really good but it was not superlative. On Baseball Reference, Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe has a system that combines a pitcher’s career WAR with the WAR of their best seven years. Sabathia never had any eye-popping campaigns, just a lot of excellent ones. As a result, his “best 7 WAR” is only 99th best among all starting pitchers in history.

Therefore, Jaffe’s JAWS puts Sabathia in 69th place, behind 23 starting pitchers who are not in the Hall. Still, he’s in front of 18 others who are in Cooperstown, including names such as Don Sutton, Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford and Dizzy Dean.

The Sabathia Generation of Starting Pitchers

Anyway, let’s take a look at the other starting pitchers who are in what I’ll refer to as the “Sabathia generation,” the pitchers born between 1975 and 1985 (CC was born in 1980). This is a list of the top 11 starting pitchers (ranked by WAR) born during those years.

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On this list, just going by WAR, Zack Greinke passed Sabathia this year. I would guess that Max Scherzer will as well next season. Beyond that, it’s hard to say.

Regardless, it’s pretty clear to me that Halladay and Verlander are on top of this list for a reason. Verlander, of course, remains at the top of his game and has, in my opinion, almost accomplished enough to be a Hall of Famer already.

Still, there’s room for multiple starting pitchers from any generation to make the Hall of Fame and Sabathia’s numbers (innings, strikeouts, wins) are solidly in range.

CC Sabathia v Andy Pettitte

Towards the bottom of every player’s Baseball Reference page, there is a section called “Similarity Scores.” This is a Bill James invention (explained in the Glossary here) that looks at a player’s basic statistics and searches for the “most similar” player statistically speaking. The #1 pitcher on Sabathia’s list is Andy Pettitte (Mussina is #2, incidentally).

So here you have a lineage of Yankee starting pitchers going from 1995 to 2018, with Pettitte having been teammates with both Moose and CC. Anyway, since Pettitte was eligible for the Hall of Fame for the first time in 2019, let’s take a look at the two Yankee greats side by side.

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When adjusted for the fact that Pettitte started his career as the PED era was ramping up, his ERA+ is nearly identical to Sabathia’s, despite being 14 points higher in the raw number. Sabathia has the edge in base-runner prevention (WHIP) and strikeouts.

Still, Pettitte was a part of five World Championship squads compared to just the lone title for CC. The pride of Baton Rouge, Louisiana made 44 career post-season starts, going 19-11 with a 3.81 ERA. It’s a record that mirrors Pettitte’s regular season record but is littered with big game wins.

There’s another side to this though. The career paths of Sabathia and Pettitte were actually quite different. Pettitte was a solid, consistent presence on the mound for 18 years but never one of the top pitchers of the game over multiple years.

Also, by my rankings, I have Pettitte as a top 5 pitcher only once (2005 with Houston) and a top 10 pitcher in only one other season (1997 with New York).

He was close in 1996 (when he went 21-6 with a 3.87 and finished 2nd in the Cy Young vote). But don’t take my word for it. In ’96 he was 13th in WAR, 17th in ERA+ and 30th in the good old-fashioned ERA.

The reason that the career numbers for the two Yankee lefties are so similar is that Pettitte never had a three-year stretch as low as Sabathia did.

Anyway, the writers took a dim view to Hall of Fame candidacy of Andy Pettitte this January, conferring to him just 9.9% of the vote. One caveat: Pettitte did admit using Human Growth Hormone once in 2002. His career in totality seems authentic but the BBWAA voters clearly held that against him on the crowded 2019 ballot.

Conclusion

CC Sabathia has 251 career wins. While the significance of the “win” statistic diminishes every year, it’s still a record of what happened. For whatever it’s worth, Sabathia’s 251 wins are by far the most of any pitcher in the 21st century.

Sabathia also finished his career with 3,093 career strikeouts, currently the 16th most in the history of baseball. So, CC has over 250 wins and has over 3,000 K’s. Those are nice round numbers. There are still Hall of Fame voters who like those shiny round numbers.

As indicated earlier, in baseball history, there are now 14 pitchers who have won at least 250 games and struck out 3,000 batters. 12 of those 14 hurlers are in the Hall of Fame. The only one who isn’t is Roger Clemens, who is absent for other reasons.

Most players won’t admit to thinking about the Hall of Fame when analyzing the decision about whether or not to keep playing but Sabathia seemed to be aware of the milestones he was approaching. Maybe.

“I haven’t really given it much, much thought, but the last couple months I’ve thought about the Hall of Fame or my career and things like that, as I get to the end. So I don’t really have a statement about it, I guess, but I have thought about it.”

— CC Sabathia (October 8, 2018)

As someone who believes that the Hall of Fame severely under-represents players of the last 50 years, I personally think there should probably be room in Cooperstown for CC Sabathia.

Despite that rosy projection, a Cooperstown plaque for Sabathia is anything but assured. Currently the Hall of Fame writers haven’t found room for Curt Schilling, who has a WAR above 80. Schilling, however, has a Twitter problem, which has slowed down his progress towards a Cooperstown plaque.

Remember this: there is a large gap between Mussina/Schilling and Sabathia (or Pettitte, for that matter).

Another factor that could impact a Sabathia Hall of Fame bid is that multiple current pitchers could surpass him in several statistical categories before he becomes eligible for the Hall.

The most likely outcome is that, when CC hits the ballot, he’ll be on it for several years before the final verdict is rendered. When it comes to borderline candidates, the five-year waiting period between retirement and ballot eligibility helps put context on how a player compares to his contemporaries. Will anybody else reach 250 wins?

How many more currently active pitchers will reach the 3,000 strikeout plateau? In May, FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe took a dive into that question, as well as putting context on what 3,000 K’s means in the modern game compared to the past.

Last spring, I pegged Sabathia’s Hall of Fame odds at 65%. In retrospect, I think that number was low. I’m upping the ante this year because of the milestones he reached.

CC Sabathia Hall of Fame odds — 90%

Given that CC’s numbers are so similar to Pettitte’s and that the latter received just 10% of the vote this year, my 90% prediction might seem high. I stand by the number because Sabathia had a dominant peak that Pettitte did not have (Pettitte also has a PED link). In addition, the narrative of Sabathia’s career will play well (especially his unselfish willingness to take the ball every 4 days during the 2008 pennant race).

Still, Sabathia’s sabermetric case is weak (see the 2nd comment below). Given that the BBWAA electorate becomes more analytically minded every year, his election is hardly a sure thing. Still, even if CC doesn’t make it via the writers, he’ll be a strong Veterans Committee candidate with a voting body of many Hall of Fame players who will value the narrative of his career.

Personally, I’m inclined to favor Sabathia’s induction. However, the context of his accomplishments may look different by December 2024, when he’ll first appear on the ballot. We’ll see what happens.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

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