Is there a Hall of Fame Case for Francisco Rodriguez?

Francisco Rodriguez is one of those rare Major League Baseball players who was instantly transformed from someone who was unknown to all but the most hard-core of baseball fans to a household name. Rodriguez, at the age of 20, made his MLB debut with the Anaheim Angels on September 18, 2002.

After pitching in just five regular season games (logging 5.2 innings), Rodriguez tossed more innings in the postseason than any pitcher on the eight teams that qualified for the playoffs. Just two weeks after his first MLB outing, he became one of the two most important relievers for the Angels during their run to the franchise’s first-ever World Series championship. His five postseason wins in 2002 are tied for the most ever for any pitcher in a single season in the history of the playoffs. Besides his fastball and slider, what made K-Rod virtually unhittable that October was the hard, sharply breaking curveball that he threw in the low 80s.

Over the next six seasons in Anaheim, Rodriguez went on to save 208 games (with a 2.35 ERA) while setting the all-time single-season saves record with 62 in 2008. Having accomplished all of this before his 27th birthday, the pitcher known as K-Rod looked like a Hall of Famer in the making. Unfortunately, Rodriguez’s post-Angels career was filled with challenges and his career was over at the age of 35.

Last month, Rodriguez was on the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. Although he has the fourth-most saves in the history of baseball (with 437), he received 10.8% of the vote last month, compared to 68.1% for another closer on the ballot, Billy Wagner, who had 422 saves.

After a recap of Rodriguez’s 16-year MLB career, I’ll tackle the pros and cons of his candidacy for the Hall of Fame.

Cooperstown Cred: Francisco Rodriguez (RP)

2nd Year on the BBWAA ballot in 2024 (received 10.8% of the vote in 2023)

• Angels (2003-08), Mets (2008-11), Brewers (2011-13, ’14-15), Orioles (2013), Tigers (2016-17)
• Career: 52-53 (.495 WL%), 2.86 ERA
• Career: 437 Saves (4th most all-time), 76 Blown Saves (85% success rate)
• Career: 148 ERA+, 24.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 6-time All-Star
• Finished 3rd or 4th in the A.L. Cy Young voting three times with the Angels
• 2008: saved 62 games, the most for a single season in baseball history

(Cover photo: La Vida Baseball)

This article was originally posted on January 15th. It has been updated in anticipation of the 2024 vote.

Francisco Rodriguez: Before the Majors

Francisco Rodriguez was born on January 7, 1982, in Caracas, Venezuela. Rodriguez had 10 brothers and sisters and his parents split when he was two months old, leaving him to be raised by his grandparents.

As a young pitcher, Rodriguez was precocious. By the age of 12, pitching against older kids, he was throwing a pitch that resembled a slider. He was throwing 90 miles per hour by the age of 15. In September 1998, the Anaheim Angels signed the 16-year-old Rodriguez for $960,000.

Rodriguez was used as a starting pitcher in his first several minor league seasons, but after he posted a 5.38 ERA at Rancho Cucamonga (Class A) in 2001, he was moved to the bullpen. Rodriguez split time between AA (Little Rock, AR) and AAA (Salt Lake City, UT) in the 2002 campaign, posting a 2.27 ERA with 120 strikeouts in 83.1 innings. With the minor league season over, he was promoted to the big club on September 16th.

Rodriguez made his debut on September 18th (in Oakland) and struck out two batters in the 8th inning. The next night, again in the 8th inning, Rodriguez struck out the side. All told, Angels manager Mike Scioscia used K-Rod in five games. The 20-year-old right-hander struck out 13 batters while giving up no runs in 5.2 innings.

Francisco Rodriguez’s History-Making 2002 Postseason

The Angels were matched up against the New York Yankees in the American League Division Series. In Game 2 at Yankee Stadium (with the Yankees having won Game 1), Scioscia brought Rodriguez into the game in the top of the 6th inning with the Angels holding a 4-3 lead. Rodriguez gave up that lead when he yielded a two-run home run to Alfonso Soriano.

Scioscia kept his young gun in for the 7th, however, and Rodriguez retired the side in order. K-Rod was credited with the win when the Angels rallied to score three runs in the top of the 8th. The vulture victory made him the first pitcher in history to earn his first career MLB win in the postseason.

Two days later (in Game 3 at Edison Field), Rodriguez pitched two scoreless innings (striking out four) and earned another victory when the Angels scored three runs in the bottom of the 8th. K-Rod fanned another three Yankees in 1.2 innings in Game 4, which the Angels won 9-5. It was clear based on how he was used in the ALDS that the 20-year-old rookie had emerged as the principal set-up man to closer Troy Percival.

Rodriguez won another two games out of the bullpen in the ALCS (against the Minnesota Twins), striking out seven batters in 4.1 scoreless innings, although he did allow three inherited runners to score in the top of the 7th inning in Game 5. Fortunately for K-Rod, the Angels’ bats came to his rescue again, bludgeoning four Twins pitchers for 10 runs in the bottom of the 7th. The Angels (and Rodriguez) won easily to advance to the World Series against the San Francisco Giants.

“It is a joy to watch Francisco Rodriguez pitch. His arm is live, his motion is flawless. His fastball jumps out his hand, a skittering, weaving object. His slider sweeps, makes a giant arc so that it seems more of a curveball. His body, loose and limber, is always in balance. His eyes focus ahead on the job to do and nothing else… Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire seemed to need to rub his eyes after he watched Rodriguez. ‘First time I’ve seen the kid. Wow, the ball is jumping out of his hand.'”

— Diane Pucin, Los Angeles Times (October 10, 2002)

The 2002 World Series

By the end of the 2002 regular season, Barry Bonds was already a four-time MVP and had (in 2001) set baseball’s single-season home run record with an incredible 73 long balls. What had eluded Bonds, however, was a World Series championship. He came into the 2002 postseason with a career batting average of just .196 (with only one home run) in 116 plate appearances.

All of that ended in 2002; Bonds had a 1.286 OPS with 4 HR in the NLDS and NLCS. In Game 1 of the World Series (Bonds’ first-ever appearance in the Fall Classic), he hit a home run off Anaheim’s Jarrod Washburn in his first at bat. (The Giants won Game 1 by a 4-3 score; Rodriguez did not pitch).

Game 2 was a topsy-turvy offensive showcase. Scioscia brought Rodriguez into the game in the top of the 6th with the Angels trailing 9-8. K-Rod responded by tossing three perfect innings (with four K’s), getting Bonds to ground out to first base to end the 6th. The game was tied at 9 when Rodriguez came out of the game. However, when Tim Salmon hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the 8th, the Angels took an 11-9 lead. Percival, despite giving up a solo tater to Bonds in the top of the 9th, saved the game.

Rodriguez was credited with his 5th victory of the postseason, tieing him with Randy Johnson for the most victories in a single postseason (Johnson had five wins for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001). He also became the youngest pitcher ever to win a World Series game.

Rodriguez did have one blemish in the World Series. In Game 4, he came into the game in the bottom of the 7th with the score tied at 3. He retired the side in order (including getting Bonds to ground out again). However, in the bottom of the 8th, he gave up an unearned run and was credited with the loss in Anaheim’s 4-3 defeat.

In Game 6 (in Anaheim) it looked as if the Giants would win the World Series, with Rodriguez contributing to the loss. He was brought into the game with the Angels trailing 2-0 in the top of the 5th. After allowing an inherited runner to score, K-Rod gave up additional runs in the 6th (via a Bonds solo home run) and the 7th (a Jeff Kent RBI single). The Angels were now down 5-0 with just three innings to play but rallied to score six runs in the 7th and the 8th to eke out a 6-5 victory.

In Game 7, Scioscia trusted his rookie phenom once again in a high-leverage situation. The Angels held a 4-1 lead after seven innings; Scioscia brought K-Rod in for the 8th to protect that lead against the heart of the Giants’ lineup. After striking out Rich Aurilia and Kent, K-Rod walked Bonds, but then struck out Benito Santiago to retire the side. Percival closed the game in the 9th, giving the Angels the World Series title.

All in all, Rodriguez went 5-1 with three holds, a 1.93 ERA, and 28 strikeouts in 18.2 postseason innings. At the time, the 28 K’s were the most for a reliever in postseason history (that record was eclipsed by Andrew Miller in 2016).

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2002-08: Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels

It almost goes without saying that Francisco Rodriguez made the Angels’ Opening Day roster in 2003, ensconced as one of the top set-up men to Percival. Rodriguez got off to an uneven start (5.48 ERA in his first 15 outings) but had a 4-1 record as of May 16th thanks to more timely hitting by his teammates. He righted his proverbial ship for the rest of the campaign, posting a 2.14 ERA in his final 44 appearances.

At the age of 22, Rodriguez blossomed into a star in 2004. He posted a 1.82 ERA in 84 innings, striking out 123 batters while collecting 12 saves. He was an All-Star for the first time and finished tied for 4th in the Cy Young voting behind Johan Santana, Curt Schilling, and Mariano Rivera.

K-Rod’s terrific campaign didn’t end well, however. In the ALDS, he was the losing pitcher in both Game 2 and Game 3 (to the Boston Red Sox), although it was Jarrod Washburn who gave up David Ortiz’s game-winning home run in Game 3 when Scioscia lifted Rodriguez after 38 pitches.

With Rodriguez clearly ready to become the team’s closer, the Angels let Percival leave as a free agent after the 2004 campaign. K-Rod responded in 2005 by leading the American League with 45 saves (in 50 opportunities), posting a 2.67 ERA with 91 strikeouts in 67.1 innings. The Angels were back in the postseason in 2005, winning the ALDS (against the Yankees) before succumbing to the Chicago White Sox in the ALCS. Rodriguez posted a 1.59 ERA and saved three games in the 2005 playoffs.

Rodriguez led the majors with 47 saves in 2006 (with only 4 blown saves). Along the way, he sported a 1.73 ERA while striking out 98 batters in 73 innings. That performance was good enough to earn him another 4th place Cy Young finish, behind Santana, Chien-Ming Wang, and Roy Halladay. It wasn’t, however, good enough to get the Angels back to the playoffs.

K-Rod helped the Angels back to October baseball in 2007 although his regular season performance (40 saves, 2.81 WRA, 90 K in 67.1 IP) wasn’t quite on par with the previous year. He did make his 2nd All-Star team but gave up a titanic three-run walk-off home run to Boston’s Manny Ramirez in Game 3 of the ALDS, resulting in a three-game sweep for the Red Sox.

2008: Record-Setting Campaign

In Francisco Rodriguez’s final season with the Los Angeles Angels, he set the all-time MLB record for saves in a single season with a whopping 62. The previous record (57) had been set by the White Sox’s Bobby Thigpen in 1990. Rodriguez, who earlier made his 3rd All-Star squad, tied Thigpen’s record on September 11th in what was the Angels’ 146th game. He set the record two nights later (at home) by striking out Seattle’s Raul Ibanez.

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K-Rod actually blew his next save opportunity (his 7th blown save of the year) but then reeled off four more saves in four chances, saving his 62nd contest on September 24th in Seattle. K-Rod’s 62 saves remain the single-season record.

Overall, Rodriguez posted a 2.24 ERA in 68.1 IP (while striking out 77 batters). The writers rewarded Rodriguez with a 3rd-place Cy Young finish (behind Cliff Lee and Halladay). He also finished 6th in the MVP voting, even earning one first-place vote.

Facing the Red Sox again in the ALDS, Rodriguez struggled again. In Game 2, in a tie game in the top of the 9th inning, he gave up a two-run home run to J.D. Drew, leading to Boston’s 7-5 win. (The Angels fell to the Sox in 4 games).

Rodriguez’s career with the Angels ended with 208 saves, a 2.35 ERA, and 11.7 strikeouts per 9 innings. Although he was only 26 years old at the time, K-Rod’s 208 career saves had already put him in 36th place on the all-time saves list. A future plaque in the Hall of Fame certainly seemed like a strong possibility.

Anyway, Rodriguez cashed in on his record-setting campaign by signing a three-year contract with the New York Mets for $37 million, putting an end to his fantastic tenure in Anaheim.

2009-2011: New York Mets

Francisco Rodriguez got off to a terrific start with the Mets, posting a 0.56 ERA in his first 28 appearances while saving 17 games in 18 opportunities (with the only blown save on an infamous drop of an infield pop-up by 2nd baseman Luis Castillo at Yankee Stadium).

Six days after the Castillo miscue, K-Rod blew another save and went into a two-month slump, posting an ugly 7.48 ERA in 22 games. The worst of those outings was in San Diego in early August when he blew a 2-1 lead and then gave up a walk-off grand slam to Everth Cabrera. It was only the second time in Rodriguez’s career that he gave up five runs in one appearance.

Rodriguez finished the season with 35 saves in 42 opportunities and a 3.71 ERA, by far the worst of his career (his previous high had been 3.03 in his rookie campaign). In his second to last appearance of the season, he gave up another walk-off grand slam, this time to Washington’s Justin Maxwell. That made K-Rod the first pitcher since Hall of Fame Lee Smith (in 1995) to give up two walk-off grand slams in one season.

K-Rod was supposed to be a “missing piece” on the 2009 Mets but the team won only 70 games, after having been in the postseason chase for the previous three seasons. Although it was an uneven campaign, Rodriguez did make his 4th All-Star squad thanks to his strong first half.

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Rodriguez was left off the 2010 All-Star roster despite a strong first three months; he posted a 1.99 ERA in his first 38 games (saving 19 games in 22 opportunities). Overall (through August 10th), in his first 52 appearances, he saved 25 out of 30 games while sporting a 2.24 ERA.

On August 11th, Rodriguez was involved in an incident that may be the single defining moment that marks the moment when he was a player who was a Hall of Famer in the making to one who wasn’t. After not pitching in the game, Rodriguez barked at reporters in the clubhouse after the team’s loss: “Did I f—ing pitch tonight? Why do I have to talk to you f—ing guys?” Shortly thereafter, he assaulted his father-in-law Carlos Pena and was arrested, and charged, with third-degree assault. Rodriguez was suspended for two days.

He pitched one more inning (on August 14th) before undergoing season-ending surgery for a torn ligament in his right thumb, the injury a result of the altercation with Pena. In December, Rodriguez plead guilty to one count of assault and two counts of disorderly conduct. He avoided jail time by agreeing to undergo 52 weeks of anger management therapy.

Rodriguez returned to the Mets in 2011 and pitched reasonably well. In 42 appearances, he saved 23 games (out of 26 opportunities) while posting a 3.16 ERA. However, the Mets were eager to trade their closer because of a $17 million vesting option in his contract that was scheduled to take effect if he finished 55 games in the season. Thus, on July 12th, the Mets traded their closer to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for two players to be named later (neither of whom amounted to a hill of beans in the majors).

2011-13: Milwaukee Brewers

Upon joining the Brewers, Francisco Rodriguez agreed to waive his vesting option in exchange for additional compensation. When Rodriguez joined the Brewers, he was 4th among active pitchers in career saves with 291. However, since Milwaukee already had a hot closer (John Axford), manager Ron Roenicke utilized K-Rod as a set-up man, which would have made the vesting option moot anyway.

Although 300 career saves would have to wait, K-Rod thrived in his new role, going 4-0 with 17 holds and a 1.86 ERA. The Brewers won the N.L. Central with 96 wins, then defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLDS before falling to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS. Rodriguez, in five appearances, posted a 1.80 ERA and had three holds.

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In the offseason, the market for K-Rod’s services as a closer was barren (a result likely of his fastball velocity having been a career-low 90 MPH). So, in what was surprising at the time, Rodriguez accepted the Brewers’ offer of salary arbitration rather than remain in the free-agent marketplace. In January, he agreed to a one-year $8 million contract.

As it turned out, all of the teams that passed on the opportunity to make Rodriguez their closer were happy with their decision. Rodriguez had a miserable campaign in Milwaukee, going 2-7 with a 4.38 ERA, saving 3 games (with 7 blown saves) and 32 holds.

Off the field, Rodriguez was arrested again in September 2012 for domestic violence and battery against his fiancee (the charges were ultimately dismissed).

Rodriguez was unsigned throughout the offseason, finally settling on a minor league contract with the Brewers in April 2013. He made his season debut on May 16th and regained some of his prior magic. In 25 games, he posted a 1.09 ERA and was used much more in the 9th inning; he went 10-for-10 in save chances. On June 22, he finally reached 300 saves when he closed out a win against the Atlanta Braves, striking out Freddie Freeman to end the game.

2013-15: Trade to Baltimore and Return to Milwaukee

The 2013 Brewers were a bad team and, with Francisco Rodriguez having re-established himself as a desirable bullpen option. In late July, the Baltimore Orioles traded for K-Rod. As it was in 2011 with the trade to Milwaukee, however, Rodriguez was joining a team with an established closer. In this case, it was Jim Johnson, who had led the majors with 51 saves in 2012.

Rodriguez’s short tenure in Baltimore didn’t go well: he posted a 4.50 ERA in 23 appearances.

The free agent market was once again soft for Rodriguez. He went back to Milwaukee in February 2014 on a one-year, $3.25 million deal. With closer Jim Henderson struggling with his velocity in spring training, Roenicke turned to the 32-year-old veteran to be his closer on Opening Day. K-Rod rewarded him with a save and 14 more in a row before his first blown chance on May 11th. All told, Rodriguez started the 2014 campaign with 19 consecutive scoreless innings (with 26 strikeouts).

While Rodriguez couldn’t maintain that perfection, he still finished the first half of the season with a 2.58 ERA and 27 saves (out of 30 chances), resulting in his first All-Star nod since 2009. The Venezuelan righty finished the season with 44 saves (out of 49 chances) and an ERA of 3.04 ERA. His WHIP (0.985) was the lowest mark of his career.

Rodriguez’s strong renaissance campaign resulted in a two-year, $13 million contract, which was backloaded to pay just $3.5 million in 2015. On the field, he followed up his strong 2014 campaign with another one in 2015. K-Rod was an All-Star again (for the 6th time overall), saving 38 games (with only two blown saves) while sporting a 2.21 ERA. Rodriguez’s control was impeccable (11 walks in 57 innings), resulting in a new career-best WHIP (0.860).

The 68-win Brewers, however, really didn’t need an established closer, so they traded Rodriguez in the offseason to the Detroit Tigers.

2016-17: Detroit Tigers

With the Tigers, Francisco Rodriguez joined a team with two future Hall of Famers (Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander) and a supporting cast of hitters that included several past or future stars (Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, and Victor Martinez).

K-Rod’s tenure in Detroit got off to a terrible start. He blew a three-run lead to the Miami Marlins on Opening Day (although Detroit would go on to win in extra innings). After that initial blemish, Rodriguez was consistent a reliable for most of the season, saving 44 games (in 47 chances) while sporting a 2.10 ERA. However, in his second-to-last appearance of the season, Rodriguez gave up five runs, resulting in a season ERA of 3.24. Overall, K-Rod whiffed 52 batters in 58.1 innings, the first time in his career he struck out less than one batter per inning.

The ’16 Tigers won 86 games, putting them three games out of a tie for a Wild Card spot.

One of the highlights of Rodriguez’s age 34 season occurred on May 24th, when he wrapped up the 400th save of his career. Rodriguez started the season with 386 career saves, which put him 7th on the all-time list. By the end of the season, his 430 saves put him 4th on the all-time list. He passed Dennis Eckersley, Billy Wagner, and John Franco in that one campaign.

Given his relative youth, 500 or even 600 saves seemed like a real possibility for Rodriguez. And, having posted three strong campaigns in a row, the Tigers picked up Rodriguez’s $6 million option for 2017.

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Unfortunately for the Tigers, Rodriguez struggled mightily early in 2017. After an Opening Day save, the 35-year-old righty had a brutal stretch in which he blew 4 out of 10 saves opportunities and posted an unsightly 9.28 ERA. The 4th blown save, courtesy of a walk-off home run by the Athletics’ Ryon Healy, prompted manager Brad Ausmus to demote Rodriguez to set-up duties.

In his next (and ultimately, final) 15 outings with the Tigers, Rodriguez had only one save chance, and he blew it. In his final game with the Tigers, he gave up a grand slam to Seattle’s Robinson Cano. He was released on June 23rd with a 2-5 record, 6 blown saves (out of 13 chances), and a 7.82 ERA. It was the last game K-Rod would ever pitch in Major League Baseball.

“He took it hard. He was apologetic. He said he was sorry he couldn’t get it done. He wants to win as much as anybody and he wants to do it as much as anybody. He just couldn’t get it done. He felt really bad about it.”

— Al Avila (Tigers General Manager) (6/23/17)

Rodriguez signed a minor-league contract with the Washington Nationals less than two weeks after his release from the Tigers but was let go after just nine days. He tried to come back several other times, with the Phillies in the spring of 2018, the Long Island Ducks (also in 2018), and the Mexican League (in 2019) but never got close to the majors again.

The Hall of Fame Case for and Against Francisco Rodriguez

As I’ve noted earlier, Francisco Rodriguez absolutely looked like a Hall of Famer in the making when he finished his historic 62-save campaign in 2008 with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. At the tender age of 26, his 208 career saves already put him in 36th place on the all-time list.

He had a 2.35 ERA, had struck out 11.7 batters per 9 innings, and had held opposing batters to a .189 clip. His adjusted ERA+ was 189, the second-best total at the time (to the great Mariano Rivera) for any pitcher with at least 400 innings pitched in baseball history.

Unfortunately, in the nine subsequent seasons, K-Rod’s ERA was a pedestrian 3.30 (122 ERA+), and, because his career ended at age 35, he finished with “only” 437 career saves. That’s still the 4th most in the history of baseball but it’s closer to John Franco’s total of 424 than Lee Smith’s 478.

As Jay Jaffe noted in his profile of Rodriguez, only four of the 66 Hall of Fame pitchers whose careers ended in 1960 or later failed to pitch beyond their age 35 seasons. Those four hurlers were Sandy Koufax (30 years old), Don Drysdale (32), Catfish Hunter (33), and Bruce Sutter (35).

So, with the disadvantage of the early end of his career, here are the bullet points of an argument in favor of Rodriguez for a plaque in Cooperstown:

• 4th most saves (437) in Major League Baseball history (behind three Hall of Famers)
• Owns the single-season save record with 62
• *Saved 40 or more games 6 times
• 6-time All-Star
• Was a key contributor to the 2002 World Series Championship for the Angels (5-1, 3 holds, 1.93 ERA, 28 strikeouts in 18.2 innings)

*Only two relievers have posted more 40-save seasons than Rodriguez’s six. Both Rivera and Trevor Hoffman did it in nine different campaigns.

We’ll recall that Rodriguez had several seasons (2003-04 and 2011-13) in which he was a set-up man, not the closer. There were, of course, legitimate reasons that K-Rod played second fiddle in those seasons. However, in an alternate reality in which he was a closer throughout his career, he might have had over 500 saves, which would make his case look even better.

In fact, if you add up saves plus “holds” (in which a relief pitcher enters and exits the game with his team holding a lead of three runs or less), Rodriguez has the third-highest total in baseball history.

Most Saves + Holds in MLB History

1. Mariano Rivera (680)
2. Trevor Hoffman (619)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (525)
4. Lee Smith (506)
5. John Franco (496)
6. Billy Wagner (435)

For an elevator pitch, the case for K-Rod is not bad. In fact, on the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor on Baseball Reference, Rodriguez scores 124 points on a scale on which 100 is a “likely” Hall of Famer. It’s also better than the score for two Hall of Fame relievers: Goose Gossage (109) and Bruce Sutter (79).

It’s also better than Billy Wagner’s score (107). Wagner will be on the BBWAA ballot for the 9th time in 2024 and, as previously noted, earned a robust 68.1% of the vote on last month’s ballot.

It’s important to note, however, that the James system is meant to predict who will make the Hall of Fame, not who should. It should also be noted that James has a revised Hall of Fame monitor (unveiled in the 2018 edition of the Bill James Handbook), and Rodriguez’s score (89) is less stellar in the new system, though it’s still higher than Smith (88) Sutter (87), or Wagner (81).

The Flaws in Francisco Rodriguez’s Hall of Fame Case

Let’s start by poking out some obvious flaws in Franciso Rodriguez’s Hall of Fame case. The first is that he was clearly only the second-best relief pitcher on the 2023 BBWAA ballot (my opinion), behind Billy Wagner, and the writers agreed. Let’s take a look at their statistics side by side:

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K-Rod has more innings pitched and more saves but, if you look at the rate stats (ERA, ERA+, WHIP, SO/BB, SO/9), Wagner was clearly far more dominant. Now, of course, any writer is entitled to put two relief pitchers on their ballots but most did not do that.

Wagner was simply better and more consistently excellent: he only had one season in his 16-year career in which he posted an ERA above 3.00. Rodriguez had seven such campaigns.

Additionally, if you stack up Rodriguez against two other contemporary closers (Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon), it’s not clear that Rodriguez was better than either. He had more volume, to be sure, but his rate stats are the weakest of the three, and Nathan’s numbers are deflated by two mediocre seasons as a starting pitcher at the start of his career.

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Was K-Rod the Best Closer in Baseball at his Peak?

We established early in this piece that Rodriguez’s best years were in Anaheim. The best case for K-Rod would be that he has the 4th most saves in history, the single-season record, and was the game’s best closer during his peak years (2003-08). So, for that case to work, let’s find out how Rodriguez ranks during those peak years.

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The last two statistical categories (WAR and WPA) put Rodriguez as the third-best closer in Major League Baseball from 2003-08. There is no shame in being behind Mariano Rivera in anything if you’re a closer, but being Nathan doesn’t impress when you’re making a Hall of Fame case.

If you’re not familiar with WPA (Win Probability Added), it’s a metric that measures the value of outs or non-outs based on the score and inning of the game. Because relief pitchers are most often used in high-leverage situations, it’s a statistic that gives closers credit for getting the most important outs of a game.

Francisco Rodriguez: What Might Have Been

As previously noted, Francisco Rodriguez had 430 saves at the end of his age 34 season, getting 7 more in his ill-fated 2017 campaign. To put 430 career saves at the age of 34 into perspective, Lee Smith had 352 at the end of his age 34 season, which is the second-most for a pitcher at that age. Trevor Hoffman had 352 saves at this point in his career, while Mariano Rivera had 336.

Take a look at the number of career saves earned by top closers in baseball history by the end of their age 34 seasons and in the years that followed:

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In the modern era, a relief pitcher’s ability to keep closing games into his late 30s has been what’s punched his ticket to Cooperstown. Besides Rivera, Hoffman, and Smith, Dennis Eckersley saved 293 games in his age 35+ seasons. On this list, Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen are still active. Their Cooperstown resumes are not yet complete.

If K-Rod had been able to pass 500 saves, he would probably make it to the Hall of Fame. But he didn’t, and he won’t.

The Writers Chime In

Let’s take a look at what some of the BBWAA members have had to say about Francisco Rodriguez’s Hall of Fame case.

“I have always had a hard time figuring out what to do with closers. I once asked Trevor Hoffman, a Hall of Fame closer, what he thought was the best statistical benchmark for the position and he said 30-save seasons. K-Rod had eight of them as well as six 40-save seasons. His 437 career saves are the fourth-most in history. I have a feeling I’m going to be clearly in the minority here, but Rodriguez gets my vote.”

— John Perrotto, Pittsburgh Baseball Now (Dec. 29, 2022)

“I also voted for Francisco Rodríguez, who probably won’t get much love from the BBWAA. Just felt he needed to be recognized for ranking fourth on baseball’s all-time save list and for being one of the game’s most dominant relievers during the early 2000s, albeit for too short a period to make a strong enough case for Cooperstown.”

— Peter Schmuck, Baltimore Basesball (Jan. 5, 2023)

“Francisco Rodríguez is the lone newcomer on my ballot this year… There’s more to it than saves, of course. The closer’s gig can be a fickle thing — sometimes, it makes perfect sense to use your best high-leverage guy in the eighth or even seventh inning — so you can’t truly gauge a guy’s dominance merely by his saves total. There’s an “it” factor that boosts special relievers to Hall of Fame level. Ask any hitter, and they’ll tell you who’s got it.”

— Rob Biertempfel, The Athletic (Jan. 9, 2023)

Most writers don’t bother to explain why they don’t vote for a player, but Jay Jaffe is one of them. He references here a statistic he created (R-JAWS) which is meant to compare relief pitchers against each other.

“I became more open to including Rodríguez upon realizing that he’s 0.1 R-JAWS points ahead of 2019 honoree Lee Smith (who’s third in saves) and 3.1 points ahead of Bruce Sutter. The weight of his postseason work, particularly for 2002, is worth considering as well. But thinking back to last year’s ballot, I included Joe Nathan, who’s eighth with 24.4 R-JAWS, 3.3 points ahead of Rodríguez, but left off Jonathan Papelbon, who’s 10th with 21.7; neither wound up getting even 5% of the vote. If Rodríguez is below Papelbon (who had great postseason numbers as well) in my system, I don’t see enough justification for including him where I left the other guy off.”

— Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs (12/31/22)

“Why vote for Wagner but not Francisco Rodríguez? That was another struggle. But by rate stats, Wagner was far more dominant. Wagner has the edge in ERA (2.31 to 2.86), ERA+ (187 to 148), K% (33.2 to 28.5) and slugging (.296 to .341).”

— Daniel Brown, The Athletic (Jan 9. 2023)

Conclusion

When I wrote last year about the Hall of Fame candidacy for Joe Nathan, I noted that relief pitchers have been overrepresented in the Hall of Fame in the last several decades compared to starting pitchers. Because of the number of innings pitched, starting pitchers are inherently more valuable than relief pitchers. Top closers, however, are often more famous, simply because they’re shaking hands with the catcher at the end of the game. This extra fame for top relief aces is enhanced in October.

Anyway, here is a list of Hall of Famers who debuted in 1969 or later, broken down by position or (in the case of pitchers) by their role.

WP Table Builder

It seems to me that it’s a bit out of whack that there are nearly as many inducted closers as starters in recent decades. Additionally, there have been more Hall of Famer relievers over those decades than inducted players at any position on the diamond. And, given, that Wagner is surging in the BBWAA balloting, it’s likely he’ll soon close the starter-closer gap since 1969 to 9-to-8.

Anyway, the front offices of all 30 Major League Baseball teams are telling you every day that starting pitchers are more valuable than relief pitchers by the contracts offered. In December, the New York Mets gave closer Edwin Diaz a five-year, $102 million contract, making him the first closer in MLB history to earn a nine-figure deal. Diaz is 28 years old.

Meanwhile, Mets starter Jacob deGrom (who is 34 years old) received a five-year, $185 million contract from the Texas Rangers, despite the fact that injuries have limited deGrom to 156.1 innings in the last two seasons.

Take a look at the total salaries for the 10 pitchers on the 2023 BBWAA ballot and you’ll see who was considered more valuable by the game’s general managers.

WP Table Builder

As you can see, the three relief pitchers (Wagner, K-Rod, and Huston Street) are at the bottom of the list, only ahead of knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who didn’t become a full-time starting pitcher until he was 35 years old.

Of course, we shouldn’t ever judge a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness based on the salaries they earned. I share this to prove a point that, when it comes to the Hall of Fame, relievers have been inherently overrated and starters underrated.

Francisco Rodriguez had an excellent career. But he’s not a Hall of Famer to this observer.

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