Jim Thome: Authentic Slugger in the PED Era

When Chipper Jones was a rookie third baseman in 1995, the Atlanta Braves won their first World Series title (the first in Atlanta) by defeating the Cleveland Indians in 6 games. Chipper’s opposite number at the hot corner was 25-year-old Jim Thome, who was completing his first full season as a regular starter with the Tribe. 22 years later, both players will appear on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot for the first time.

Chipper is widely considered to be a cinch for first-ballot induction. Can the same be said for Thome?

Cooperstown Cred: Jim Thome

• Career: 612 HR, 1,699 RBI, 147 OPS+
• 612 career home runs (8th most all-time) (Bonds, Aaron, Ruth, Rodriguez, Mays, Griffey, Pujols)
• 13.8 career at bats per home run (5th best all-time) (McGwire, Ruth, Bonds, Stanton)
• 1,747 career walks (7th most all-time) (Bonds, Henderson, Ruth, Williams, Morgan, Yastrzemski)
• 72.9 career WAR (10th best ever for 1st basemen)
• 5-time All-Star
• 6 times in top 15 for MVP voting

(Cover photo: NPR.ORG)

Because of his size, it’s hard to remember Jim Thome as a third baseman because we spent so many years watching him at first base or as a designated hitter. In fact, he had already played parts of six MLB seasons before being moved across the diamond to first base in 1997 to accommodate Gold Glove third baseman Matt Williams, who had been acquired in an off-season trade with San Francisco (a trade that sent future MVP Jeff Kent to the Giants).

Thome is a big man; his Baseball Reference profile lists him at 6 feet 4 inches and 250 pounds. One of the great things about this wonderful website is that you can create lists of almost everything. So here’s a list: there are only 43 players in MLB history listed as at least 6’4″ and at least 250 pounds (with 18 of them being pitchers). As a player, the best comparison is that he was a left-handed Frank Howard, except one with a longer and more productive career (and he was three inches shorter than the 6’7″ Hondo).

Anyway, while so many sluggers from the 1990’s and 2000’s have been linked or rumored to Performance Enhancing Drugs, Thome never has been. A native of Peoria, Illinois with a father who built bulldozers for Caterpillar, Thome was a natural fan favorite of the Midwest. With his height, his Popeye forearms and farm-boy looks, Thome was an authentic slugger in the PED era. Just as it was with the 6’5″, 240 pound Frank Thomas, Thome was just plain BIG and passes the “eye test” as a natural home run hitter.

Thome was also one of the most nicest players in baseball and to me is a certain Hall of Famer. As a man with the 8th most dingers in baseball history, he should be a no-doubt first-ballot selection but there are a few reasons why he might need to wait a year or two. First, of course as always, is that the ballot is stacked. The second is that home runs don’t excite voters the way they used to. The third is that the same writers who will be evaluating Thome’s Hall of Fame candidacy only saw fit to put him in the top 5 of the MVP vote once in his career. In addition, five All-Star appearances is a little low during a 22-year career for potential Cooperstown inductee.

Still, I think Thome will make it on the first try, making it a Cooperstown quartet next year (with Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman and Chipper). What Thome has is both an “old school” and “new school” resume.

The “old school”: the 8th most home runs in MLB history and the fifth best ratio of at bats to home runs ever. The only players with a better AB/HR ratio are Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, and Giancarlo Stanton (thanks to his 59 bombs in the 2017 campaign). Considering the steroid taint of Big Mac and Barry and the fact that Stanton will have to maintain that rate for a long time, that’s pretty darned good company for Jim Thome.

The “new school”: among the 43 likely candidates on the 2018 Hall of Fame ballot, Thome’s career WAR of 72.9 is sixth best, behind only Bonds, Roger Clemens, Chipper, Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling.

With over 600 home runs, a high WAR and no taint of PED’s, it’s hard to see that not being a winning combination for Thome to get into Cooperstown. The only major negative is that he struck out more times than all but one player in the history of the sport (Reggie Jackson).

Thome was the ultimate “three true outcome player.” 8th all-time in home runs, 7th all-time in walks and 2nd all-time in strikeouts. He’s the only player to be in the Top 10 of all three lists.

On every player profile on Baseball Reference, there’s a “Similarity Score” section, reflecting a Bill James invention that takes basic statistical categories and finds the best matches for a player’s career (see the Glossary for details). The top 5 players in Thome’s “Similarity Score” are Sammy Sosa, Frank Thomas, David Ortiz, Reggie Jackson and Ken Griffey Jr. Here’s a look at their numbers side by side, ranked by Wins Above Replacement.

WP Table Builder

The best match for Thome here is Thomas since both he and the Big Hurt were primarily first basemen and DH’s (although, as we’ve mentioned, Thome did start his career at third). It’s clear that Thomas was a better overall hitter but Thome’s big edge in home runs is significant.

Looking at these numbers, you can also make the case that Thome was a better hitter than the great Reggie Jackson. Even when adjusted for the fact that Thome played in a much more hitting-conducive era than Jackson (which is accounted for in OPS+), his offensive numbers still look better. Reggie might very well have hit 600 home runs had he played in the 1990’s but Thome’s “slash-line” is better across the board, hence a superior 147 OPS+ to Jackson’s 139.

Now, I’m categorically NOT putting Thome on the same list as Jackson when it comes to the all-time greats. Reggie was Mr. October, one of the greatest post-season hitters in the history of the game. Thome hit a mere .211 in 71 post-season games and his teams never won the World Series.

Thome is also a cut above David Ortiz when it comes to his regular season numbers but, again, Big Papi has the October resume that Thome lacks.

Still, we’re quibbling about how great Jim Thome was among greats. Based on his regular season numbers, he’s right up there with Jackson and Thomas and thus an easy choice for the Hall of Fame.

Thanks for reading.

Chris Bodig