The Hall of Fame Case For and Against Jimmy Rollins

Longtime Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins was a fun player to watch. The 5’7″ switch-hitter could hit equally well from both sides of the plate. He could run; Rollins was an excellent base-stealer and legged out more triples than any player in the game during his prime. He was a sure-handed defensive player, a part of a terrific double-play combination with second baseman Chase Utley. Rollins was durable, rarely missing games due to injury.

He was highly regarded as a great teammate and ambassador for the sport of baseball (Rollins was the winner of the 2014 Roberto Clemente Award for his sportsmanship and philanthropy). Rollins had fierce arrogance and competitiveness; he believed his team was destined to win and wasn’t afraid to say it.

Rollins, the 2007 National League MVP and a member of the 2008 World Champion Phillies, is currently a candidate for a plaque in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum for the third time. Because his career petered out in his late 30’s, a quick glance at Rollins’ Baseball-Reference page is a bit underwhelming. However, when you add the component parts and take into consideration that middle infielders age faster than any players on the diamond except for catchers, you can make a solid case for Rollins for a Cooperstown plaque.

After a recap of Rollins’ 17-year career in Major League Baseball, I’ll tackle both sides of the issue to determine the pros and cons of his Hall of Fame candidacy.

“Rollins will be cherished by some people and underappreciated by other people… You hang around long enough and you find that excellence in sports is not often accompanied by self-doubt… Talent still matters most of all — it is the essential fuel — but confidence is what keeps it going. Rollins always had it, from the time he was a young kid to his time today as the father of a young family… From then until now, a career in full, done his way, Jimmy Rollins’ way.”

— Rich Hoffman (Philadelphia Daily News, June 13th, 2014)

Cooperstown Cred: Jimmy Rollins (SS)

3rd year on BBWAA ballot in 2024 (received 12.9% of the vote in 2023)

• Phillies (2000-14), Dodgers (2015), White Sox (2016)
• Career: .264 BA, 231 HR, 936 RBI, 2,455 Hits
• Career: 470 SB, 105 CS (81.7%)
• Career: 95 OPS+, 47.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Led the N.L. in triples four times
• 2007 N.L. MVP (.296 BA, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 20 triples, 139 Runs, 41 SB)
• 3-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• Member of 2008 World Series Champion Phillies

This piece was originally written in January 2022. It has been updated in advance of the 2024 vote.

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Jimmy Rollins: Before the Majors

James Calvin Rollins was born on November 27th, 1978, in Oakland, California. Rollins came from a family of athletes. His mother played fastpitch softball; his father was a wrestler and weightlifter. His younger brother Antwon played minor league baseball in the Texas Rangers organization, while his sister Shay (nine years younger) played basketball for the University of San Francisco. Rollins graduated from Encinal High School in Alameda, where he set ten school records and was named to the USA Today all-USA High School Baseball Team.

Rollins was only 5’6″ as a senior, but he was strong, a result of weightlifting at home. Bob Poole, a scout for the Philadelphia Phillies, listed Rollins at 5’9″ to help convince the team that he was worth drafting. As a result, the Phillies picked Rollins with their second pick (#46 overall) in the 1996 amateur draft.

Rollins steadily rose through the ranks of the minor leagues. He played exclusively at shortstop in the minors (as he would in Major League Baseball), becoming the #95 prospect on Baseball America‘s list after his AA season in Reading, PA, in 1999. Rollins spent the 2000 campaign in AAA ball (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) and played well enough to earn a call-up to the majors in September in what was the final month of Terry Francona’s tenure as the team’s skipper. Rollins, who hit .263 in five minor league campaigns, hit .321 with 5 RBI and 3 stolen bases in 14 games with the Phillies while starting 11 of the team’s final 15 contests.

2001: Rookie Campaign

Given that the 2000 Phillies had featured a trio of shortstops (Desi Relaford, Tomas Perez, and Alex Arias) who combined for a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of -2.2, the starting shortstop job was wide open in the spring of 2001 for the 22-year old Jimmy Rollins. New manager Larry Bowa, himself a long-time shortstop for the Phillies in the 1970s, started Rollins almost every day, initially putting him in the 2nd spot in the lineup behind Doug Glanville, the team’s veteran center fielder. Although the Phillies were just a 65-win team in 2000, they had a foundation of two excellent young players, third baseman Scott Rolen (now a Hall of Famer) and right fielder Bobby Abreu, who is on the BBWAA ballot for the 5th time in 2024.

As an official rookie, Rollins got off to a slow start with the bat; in his first 37 games, his slash line was mediocre (.247 BA, .298 OBP, .325 OBP), but he managed to steal 10 bases while only getting caught twice. In his next 48 games, Rollins improved, slashing .291/.318/.490 while going a perfect 18 for 18 on stolen base attempts. His .490 SLG for those games was fueled by 6 home runs, 11 doubles, and 6 triples. Rollins’ emergence was noticed and rewarded by being named the National League’s backup shortstop for the All-Star Game.

At the end of July, Bowa moved Rollins up to the leadoff position, where he would remain for the rest of the season. Nicknamed “J-Roll” by broadcaster Harry Kalas, Rollins rewarded Bowa with a .353 OBP in those final 56 games of the campaign.

Led by Rollins, Rolen, and Abreu, the Phillies were in contention for the playoffs until the final days of the 2001 campaign. Philadelphia finished with 86 wins in Bowa’s first season in the dugout, putting them just two games behind the Atlanta Braves in the N.L. East.

Overall, the switch-hitting Rollins had a strong statistical line in his rookie campaign. Although his OPS+ was just 93 (thanks to a middling .323 OBP overall), Rollins hit 14 HR with 54 RBI, and 97 runs scored. Additionally, he led all players in the N.L. with 12 triples and 46 steals. Unfortunately, because of the low OBP, 108 strikeouts, and poor defensive metrics, his WAR was just 2.4.

Still, in many other years, Rollins would have earned honors as the N.L. Rookie of the Year, but not in 2001. He finished third behind the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols (6.6 WAR, .329 BA, 37 HR, 130 RBI) and Houston’s Roy Oswalt (4.8 WAR, 14-3, 2.73 ERA).

2002-06: Building a Foundation for a Future Championship

Jimmy Rollins was a foundational piece of the Philadelphia teams that won five straight division titles from 2007-11. But he and left fielder Pat Burrell were the only two members of the 2001 Phillies who were still with the club when they started that run of excellence that included two pennants and a World Championship. The team would go through several years of growing pains and false starts, which sometimes frustrated the ultra-competitive Rollins.

From 2001-06, Rollins was a consistent presence for the Phillies. He played between 154 and 158 games every year for the first six full seasons of his MLB career, establishing himself as one of the top shortstops in the National League. In part as a consequence of his durability, for these six years, he led all N.L. shortstops in Hits, Runs, Doubles, Triples, RBI, and SB.

As many second-year players do, Rollins regressed slightly in 2002, slashing .245/.306/.380 (85 OPS+). Because he was stronger in the first half of the season, he was named to the N.L. All-Star squad for the second consecutive year. Rollins still led the league in triples (with 10) but had an off-year on the basepaths, getting caught stealing 13 times to offset his 31 successful steals. If you’re questioning 31 SB as being an “off-year,” the key metric to consider is the success rate when stealing bases. 70.5% is below average. His WAR was 2.3, solid but not what one would expect from an All-Star.

The 2002 Phillies regressed as a team as well, winning just 80 games after contending for the 2001 N.L. East title. Rolen clashed with Bowa, and the star third sacker was traded to St. Louis in a deal that brought a solid second baseman, Placido Polanco, back to Philadelphia.

In 2003, their final year at Veterans Stadium, the Phillies improved to 86 wins, but that was five shy of what was needed to secure a Wild Card berth in the N.L. Rollins improved slightly offensively with a slash line of .263/.320/.387 (90 OPS+) but had another average season on the bases (20 SB, 12 CS). He struck out 113 times, his third straight season with 100+ whiffs. Still, thanks to improved defensive numbers, he posted a 2.8 WAR. The Phillies, in 2003, had a rookie second baseman named Chase Utley, who was a couple of years from becoming Rollins’ full-time double-play mate.

For the 2004 campaign, Philadelphia’s first in Citizens Bank Park, J-Roll showed glimpses of the form that would win him the 2007 MVP. His entire slash line (.289/.348/.455) represented new career bests (same for his 102 OPS+). Aided by 43 doubles, a league-best 12 triples, and 30 SB (against 9 CS), Rollins scored 119 runs, third-most in the N.L. Rollins also cut down dramatically on his strikeouts, with just 73 K’s on the year. His season WAR was 4.7, also a career-best. In what would be Bowa’s final season at the helm of the Phillies, the team won 86 games again, putting them six games out of a playoff berth.

Charlie Manuel took over the Phillies in 2005, and the team contended for a Wild Card berth until the final day of the season, winning 88 games. Rollins had another strong campaign, making the All-Star team for the third time. For the season, he slashed .290/.338/.431 (97 OPS+), with 115 Runs, 41 SB (against only 6 CS), and terrific defensive metrics, leading to a 4.9 WAR.

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The most notable aspect of the ’05 campaign for Rollins was a 36-game hitting streak he fashioned from late August through the end of the season. J-Roll slashed .372/.442/.602 during those 36 games, helping him finish 10th in the N.L. MVP vote.

The Phillies continued to build the foundation that would eventually lead to five division titles. Utley had a breakout season in what was the first of a ten-year partnership with Rollins at the keystone, and the Phillies also welcomed a new member to the infield, Rookie of the Year first baseman Ryan Howard. Meanwhile, during the season, the Phillies signed their star shortstop to a five-year, $40 million contract extension.

Speaking of extensions, at the start of the 2006 campaign, the big question was how much longer Rollins could extend the hitting streak that was still in progress at the end of 2005. Unfortunately, Rollins only managed to extend it to 38 games before going 0 for 4 in the team’s third game.

The 2006 Phillies welcomed a couple of new foundational pieces to their years of excellence (starting pitcher Cole Hamels and center fielder Shane Victorino) while featuring a breakout MVP campaign from Howard (who hit 58 HR with 149 RBI). For Rollins, it was a season in which he established new career bests in HR (25), RBI (83), and Runs Scored (127). In addition, he had a terrific year running (36 SB, 4 CS) and finished the campaign with a 4.6 WAR and 101 OPS+. The team, however, once again missed the playoffs with 85 wins, putting them three short of the N.L. Wild Card.

2007: MVP Campaign

In 2006, Philadelphia finished 12 games behind the New York Mets in the National League East. The Mets advanced to the NLCS but fell to the St. Louis Cardinals in a 7-game series. Jimmy Rollins felt that the party was over for the Mets and that his Phillies were ready to take over the top of the division. In late January 2007, Rollins declared that the Phillies were the “team to beat” in the N.L. East and doubled down on that comment at the start of spring training.

“Bottom line, we’re the team to beat. I can’t put it any other way. They (the Mets) won a division. Congratulations, but last year is over. They can take it any way they want; I’m just merely stating the facts. Anything short of a ring is not a failure, but I wouldn’t consider it a great season. You play this game to be the champion, and we definitely have the team to do it… Hey, I’m not a big talker, but when there is a fact to be made, I’m not afraid to say it.”

— Jimmy Rollins (February 20, 2007)

One of the maxims of the game of baseball is not to give your opponent “bulletin board material. Yet, Rollins gave the Mets enough to last the season in one day. As it turned out, Rollins was about a year early in predicting the Phillies’ true greatness, but it wasn’t for lack of effort on his part. Rollins had the season of his life in 2007.

Rollins got off to a superb start at the plate. In the first 12 games of the season, he slashed .327/.426/.769 with 6 HR and 11 RBI. However, the rest of the team wasn’t coming along for the ride; the Phils lost 10 of their first 13 games and were 6.5 games behind the division-leading Atlanta Braves by April 18th.

As the first half progressed Rollins cooled off slightly, while the Phillies heated up, but not enough to make anyone look upon them as the “team to beat.” Rollins had a terrific first half (.286/.329/518, 16 HR, 53 RBI) but was only fourth in the fan balloting for the All-Star Game at shortstop, behind the Mets’ Jose Reyes, the Brewers’ J.J. Hardy and the Dodgers’ Rafael Furcal. Three Phillies made the N.L. All-Star squad (Utley, Aaron Rowand, and Hamels), while Rollins did not. Although the Phillies hit the break with a mediocre 44-44 record, the Mets weren’t running away with the division and were only 4.5 games ahead.

Rollins continued to rake in the second half of the season, but the Phillies continued to languish in the middle of the pack. After four straight losses late in August, the Phils were 66-62 and seven games behind the Mets. Then, for a moment, Philadelphia took back the narrative as the Phillies swept a four-game series against New York at Citizens Bank Park, a sweep that included two walk-off wins. (Rollins went 9 for 19 in the series with a pair of home runs). Less than two weeks later, however, that momentum was reversed, and the Phils were seven games back once again (as of September 12th).

In September 1964, Gene Mauch’s Phillies famously lost ten games in a row to lose the N.L. pennant to the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2007, the Phillies flipped that script. In the middle of the month, the Phils went up to New York for a three-game weekend series at Shea Stadium. Once again, the Phillies swept their division rivals. For the rest of September, Philadelphia surged, New York sagged, and the Phillies made good on Rollins’ preseason promise by winning the division on the final day of the regular season. In the last 34 games of the season, from August 26th until September 30th, Rollins slashed .335/.371/.589 with 8 HR, 5 triples, 16 SB (with only 1 CS), 31 Runs, and 22 RBI.

After the Phillies closed out the division title, Rollins grabbed a microphone behind the plate to thank the fans for their support and make one more brash prediction: “The World Series! Let’s do it!”

It was not to be for the 2007 Phillies. Rollins and the Phils finished the season hot, but the Colorado Rockies, their Division Series opponent, were even hotter, having won 14 of their last 15 contests. The Rockies swept the Phillies in three games in the NLDS, with Rollins hitting .182 with a HR and 4 RBI in the losing effort.

Still, 2007 was a banner year for Jimmy Rollins. While playing in all 162 games, J-Roll finished with a slash line of .296/.344/.531, resulting in a career-best 119 OPS+. Rollins also set career highs in HR (30), RBI (94), Runs (139), Hits (212), and Triples (20). He also stole 41 bases (while getting caught just 6 times) while winning his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards.

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As evidence of Rollins’ huge power/speed campaign, he joined Willie Mays as one of the only two players in baseball history to hit 30 HR, leg out 20 triples, and steal at least 30 bases in a single season and the first player ever to match those benchmark numbers while also collecting 200 hits. For the season, Rollins’ 6.1 WAR was a career-best. After the season, Rollins edged Colorado’s Matt Holliday to win the N.L. MVP.

2008-09: Pennant Winners

Jimmy Rollins did not make any bold proclamations at the start of the 2008 campaign, but, as it turned out, the Phillies would be the team to beat for the next several years. Rollins got off to another fast start in 2008 but found himself on the disabled list for the first time in his career after suffering an ankle sprain in the team’s 8th game of the season. After four pinch-hitting appearances and a few weeks on the D.L., Rollins returned for the team’s 37th game (in San Francisco) and promptly went 3 for 5 with a home run, double, and 3 RBI. Unfortunately, the reigning MVP was again bypassed for the All-Star Game because of the time missed and a slump in June.

Rollins didn’t come close to matching his 2007 campaign with the stick: he slashed .277/.349/.437 (104 OPS+) while hitting just 11 HR with 9 triples to go with 59 RBI. However, both defensively and on the bases, Rollins had his best season ever. He was credited with being 18 runs above average in the field (he won his second straight Gold Glove). On the basepaths, he swiped 47 bags while getting caught only 3 times. For these reasons, his WAR (5.5) was only slightly below the 6.1 mark that he posted in his MVP campaign.

The Phillies won 92 games, which was enough to win the N.L. East by three games over the Mets. In the NLDS (against the Milwaukee Brewers), the Phillies won in four games, with Rollins leading off Game 4 with a solo tater to set the pace. Against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, Rollins’ bat was relatively quiet (.143 BA, with a solo HR to lead off the clinching Game 5), but Hamels, Utley, and closer Brad Lidge were superb. Manuel’s Phillies dispatched Joe Torre’s Dodgers in five games to advance to a World Series date against the upstart Tampa Bay Rays. Once again, it was a fairly easy series win; the Phillies won in five games to claim their first World Championship since 1980.

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Rollins was healthy again for all of 2009 (he played in 155 games) but could not match his performance in the previous two campaigns. Thanks to the big bats hitting in the middle of the order (Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jayson Werth), Rollins scored 100 runs despite a mediocre slash line (.250/.296/.423), which resulted in a below-average OPS+ of 87. He hit 21 HR (with 43 doubles and 77 RBI) but only had 5 triples. He stole 31 bases while getting caught 8 times. Although he won his third straight Gold Glove, the metrics didn’t match the hardware, leading to a WAR of just 1.8 for the season, a career-low.

Utley, Howard, and Werth had big years offensively, while the Phillies also benefitted from the midseason acquisitions of left-hander Cliff Lee and future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez (in his final season) to join Joe Blanton and three other southpaws (Hamels, J.A. Happ, and 46-year old Jamie Moyer) as rotation options for Manuel. The combination was good enough for 93 wins and another N.L. East title.

After defeating the Rockies in four games in the NLDS, the Phillies had an NLCS rematch against the Dodgers. After Philadelphia took two of the first three games, the Dodgers were poised to even the series in Game 4, holding a 4-3 lead going into the bottom of the 9th inning. After two outs, a walk, and hit batsman, Rollins came to the plate against closer Jonathan Broxton and hit a line drive into right-center to plate both runs and deliver a 5-4 victory. The Phillies would close out the series two days later to advance to their second consecutive Fall Classic.

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In the World Series, the Phillies drew an opponent (the New York Yankees) that had won 103 games in the regular season. Despite five home runs by Utley, the Yankees prevailed in six games.

2010-14: Final Years in Philadelphia

Jimmy Rollins was 31 years old entering the 2010 season. After averaging 155 games played in his first nine seasons, Rollins suffered through an injury-plagued campaign in 2010. In the seventh game of the season, Rollins strained his calf, causing him to spend two stints on the disabled list; he missed 55 games. Additionally, Rollins would miss 14 games in September due to tightness in his right hamstring. Overall, in 88 games, he slashed .243/.320/.374 (85 OPS+) with 8 HR, 41 RBI, and 17 SB (only one CS). Thanks to improved defense, his WAR (2.0) was actually higher than in 2009.

Overall, the 2010 edition of the Phillies was even better than the previous two. In the offseason, the team traded for future Hall of Fame starter Roy Halladay (who would win his second Cy Young Award in ’10) and added another top-flight arm (Roy Oswalt) in the middle of the season. The team won 97 games to easily deliver Manuel a fourth straight N.L. East title.

After sweeping Dusty Baker’s Cincinnati Reds in the NLDS (with Halladay throwing a no-hitter), the Phillies faced Bruce Bochy’s San Francisco Giants in the NLCS. After San Francisco took the first game, Rollins delivered a key three-run double in the bottom of the 7th of Game 2 to power the Phillies to a 6-1 victory. The Giants, however, won three of the next four games to advance to the World Series.

For the 2011 campaign, the Phillies brought back Cliff Lee to form a powerhouse quartet of starters with Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt. In his free-agent “walk” year, Rollins rebounded a bit with the bat, slashing .268/.338/.399 (101 OPS+) with 23 HR and 68 RBI. Even at 32, Rollins was a force on the bases; he stole 30 bags (with 8 CS). He was mostly healthy, playing in 142 games, missing 16 games in late August/early September with a right groin strain. For the season, his WAR was 2.7, not star-quality but better than the previous two seasons.

The Phillies won 102 games (best in baseball) to win their fifth straight N.L. East crown. In the NLDS, against Tony La Russa’s St. Louis Cardinals, Rollins had the best postseason series of his career, slashing .450/.476/.650 with 4 doubles and 6 runs scored, but it wasn’t enough as Chris Carpenter outdueled Halladay for a 1-0 victory in the decisive Game 5. The Phillies haven’t returned to the postseason in the ten years since that NLDS loss.

Rollins was re-signed to a three-year, $33 million deal but was part of the championship core that all started to show their age in 2012. Howard, who had torn his Achilles in Game 5 of the 2011 NLCS, only played in 71 games and was a shell of the hitter he had previously been. Utley, now 32, was limited to 83 games. Victorino, at 31, had a poor season and was traded at the end of July to the Dodgers. Lee and Hamels continued to pitch well, but Halladay, now 35, suffered through shoulder soreness and a back injury and posted an ugly 4.49 ERA. As a result of all of this, the Phillies were just an 81-win team.

As for Rollins, now 33, he was solid but not much better than average. He slashed .250/.316/.427 (98 OPS+) with 23 HR, 68 RBI, 102 Runs, and 30 SB (just 5 times caught). Despite weak defensive metrics (leading to a 2.5 WAR), Rollins won his 4th and final Gold Glove.

The good news for Rollins and the Phillies in 2012 is that he was healthy, playing in 156 games. He was even more durable in 2013 but declined severely offensively, slashing .252/.318/.348 (86 OPS+) with only 6 HR and 39 RBI in 160 games played. He stole “only” 22 bases while getting caught 6 times. For the season, his WAR was just 1.3, barely above replacement level. The Phillies were just a 73-win team in ’13.

Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg had replaced Manuel as the Phillies’ skipper late in 2013 and was back in ’14. In what would be his final season in a Phillies uniform, J-Roll had a bounceback season, starting with a grand slam on Opening Day, which was also his 200th career home run. Although he hit just .243 with a .323 OBP, his power came back a bit (.394 SLG, for a 101 OPS+); he hit 17 HR while driving in 55 runs in 138 games. With improved defensive numbers and another good season on the bases (28 SB, 6 CS), he finished with a 4.1 WAR. As for the team, the Phillies were a 73-win squad again.

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2015-16: Final Two Seasons (in L.A. and Chicago)

Having averaged 151 games played from 2012-14, an $11 million vesting option was triggered for the 2015 season. However, General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. decided that it was time to start breaking up the Phillies. Rollins, who had become the all-time hit leader for the Phils in 2014, was dealt in December to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a pair of minor league pitchers, one of whom (Zach Eflin) would later become a respectable MLB starter. Although sad to be leaving the only team he had ever played for, Rollins was excited to be in his home state of California.

The Dodgers, managed by Don Mattingly, featured two of the best pitchers in baseball (Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke) and a position player core with a mix of veterans (Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Turner, Carl Crawford, Howie Kendrick) and young potential stars (Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson). Rollins, now 36, was tasked with holding down the fort at shortstop until prized prospect Corey Seager was ready.

J-Roll got off to a great start in Dodger Blue, hitting a go-ahead 3-run home run on Opening Day to lead the Dodgers to a 6-3 victory. But, as it turned out, there would be few other highlights for Rollins in his one year with the Dodgers. After hitting .273 in his first eight games, Rollins went into a horrific slump, hitting just .169 in 32 contests. After having hit leadoff or 2nd for the first couple of months of the season, Mattingly was forced to drop Rollins to the bottom of the order. As late as July 22nd, Rollins still had a lowly slash line of .204/.259/.324.

A late-August trade brought Chase Utley to the Dodgers to be Rollins’ double-play mate again, but the September callup of Seager put Rollins on the bench for the final four weeks of the campaign. Rollins finished the season with a woeful slash line (.224/.285/.358, 79 OPS+) with just 13 HR, 41 RBI, 71 Runs, and 12 SB in 144 games. The Dodgers won the N.L. West but fell in five games to the New York Mets in the NLDS. Rollins went 1 for 7 (with just one start) in his final postseason appearance.

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Rollins signed a minor league contract with the Chicago White Sox for the 2016 campaign. At 37, he was (mostly) the starting shortstop for the first two months of the season before losing the job to rookie Tim Anderson. He was released on June 15th after hitting just .221 (72 OPS+) in 166 plate appearances.

Rollins signed as a minor league free agent with the San Francisco Giants in the offseason but was released just before the start of the 2017 season. He officially retired in early May during a pregame ceremony at Citizens Bank Park.

The Hall of Fame Case For and Against Jimmy Rollins

On the surface, given that he played a premium defensive position, Jimmy Rollins has a strong case for Cooperstown. He was a four-time Gold Glove Award winner, an MVP, and a member of two pennant-winning teams. In addition, he had 2,455 hits, the 10th most for players who logged 60% of their starts at short; he’s behind Omar Vizquel, 19th-century star Bill Dahlen, and seven Hall of Fame inductees.

As a player who combined extra-base power with speed, he’s the only shortstop in the history of baseball to hit 200 home runs, leg out 100 triples, hit over 500 doubles, and steal at least 400 bases.

Rollins, a shortstop defensively for all but one-third of an inning in his MLB career, is 6th all-time for games played at the position (behind Vizquel and Hall of Famers Derek Jeter, Luis Aparicio, Ozzie Smith, and Cal Ripken Jr.). For players with at least 15,000 innings as a shortstop, he has the 2nd highest fielding percentage at the position (behind Vizquel).

If you look at Rollins’ “similarity score” list of players on Baseball Reference, the four “most similar” players are Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, and Roberto Alomar. All but Whitaker are in the Hall of Fame (and Sweet Lou should be). (On the other hand, to pop the “similarity score” balloon just a bit, the 5th and 7th players on Rollins’ list are Edgar Renteria and Jay Bell).

Rollins’ biggest problem as a candidate for Cooperstown is that his career 47.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is low for a Hall of Famer. The primary reason for J-Roll’s low WAR is simply that he didn’t get on base a lot. His career BA (.264) and OBP (.324) are low.

Although Rollins is 72nd all-time in plate appearances, he’s only 88th in runs scored. That’s not a great ratio of PA to runs for a player who logged 88% of those PAs either batting leadoff or second during an era of prolific offense throughout the league. To put it another way, Rollins’ low BA and OBP simply mean that he made a lot of outs.

Rollins’ career .264 BA is lower than the BA for all but four Hall of Fame shortstops (Aparicio, Smith, Joe Tinker, and Rabbit Maranville). Aparicio (9 Gold Gloves) and Smith (13) were premier defensive players (who could both run as well as Rollins), while Tinker and Maranville are lower-tier Veterans Committee inductees from early in the 20th century. Similarly, Rollins’ .324 OBP is lower than the mark posted by all shortstops in the Hall except for Aparicio, Maranville, and Tinker.

On the slash-line “good news” front, Rollins’ .418 slugging percentage is better than all but eight shortstops in Cooperstown. Still, the problem here is that Rollins played in a different era for shortstops than most of those with plaques in Cooperstown.

Refining the Hitting Expectations for Shortstops

To follow up on the last point, Rollins looks quite good compared to Hall of Fame shortstops from the first 103 years of baseball history (using that odd number simply because recorded baseball history started in 1871 and Aparicio’s career ended in 1973).

Compared to the first 16 shortstops to receive plaques in Cooperstown, Rollins’ counting stats rank quite well as an offensive player:

• 231 home runs (more than all 16 Hall of Famers)
• 936 RBI (more than 10, less than 6)
• 1,421 Runs (more than 14, less than 2)
• 2,455 Hits (more than 11, less than 5)
• 511 Doubles (more than 14, less than 2)
• 115 Triples (more than 10, less than 6)
• 470 Stolen Bases (more than 13, less than 3)

For the record, although WAR was decades away from coming into existence when the last of these 16 players retired, Rollins is behind all but four of these players.

Longtime Phillies shortstop Larry Bowa was the team’s manager in Rollins’ rookie season in 2000. When Bowa’s career was over, he had played more games at the position than anyone but the Venezuelan Aparicio. Bowa did this despite being a highly ineffective hitter: his career slash line was .260/.300/.320 (71 OPS+). He hit 15 home runs in 9,109 career PA, with 525 RBI, an average of 38 per year.

The switch-hitting Bowa kept a starting job in Philadelphia for 12 years (plus four more in Chicago) because he was a dependable fielder who consistently was near the top of the N.L. in fielding percentage (he led the league six times). Bowa was not expected to hit home runs or drive them in. His contemporaries in the senior circuit included Dave Concepcion, Bill Russell, Chris Speier, Don Kessinger, Roger Metzger, Tim Foli, and Bud Harrelson.

But the position started to get re-defined in the late ’70s and the 1980s. Robin Yount, Trammell, Ripken, and Larkin showed that you could get premium offense from a defensive position. Still, as Ozzie proved, there remained room for defensive-oriented shortstops in the 1980s if they were good enough. And, even in the 1990s, Vizquel was flashy enough defensively that multiple teams played him every day despite substandard offense. (Vizquel, incidentally, is also a current BBWAA candidate for Cooperstown but has seen his support crater due to a pair of scandals involving domestic violence and sexual harassment).

Starting in 1996, the rookie years of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, the outlier numbers put up by the likes of Yount and Ripken started to become more commonplace. After Jeter and A-Rod came Nomar Garciaparra and Miguel Tejada. Then, in the mid-2000s, Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki continued the trend. Today, we have Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, and Marcus Semien, all of whom have provided premium offense at shortstop for several years (Semien moved to second base in recent years).

In today’s game, Larry Bowa likely couldn’t have kept his job.

How Jimmy Rollins Compares to 21st-Century Shortstops

By now, you probably understand the point of this boring story. If someone had put up Rollins-esque offensive numbers at shortstop in the 1970s, he would have been an All-Star every year and an eventual Hall of Famer. But, in today’s game, while Rollins has a legitimate Hall of Fame case as an all-around player, his problem is that his offensive resume doesn’t look strong at all.

• From 1871 to 1995 (125 years), only 34 shortstops had an above-average OPS+ (100 or better) with at least 3,000 PA.
• From 1996-2023 (28 years), 19 shortstops have had an OPS+ of 100 or higher (minimum 3,000 PA).

Here is the crux of the problem for Rollins. Thanks to his relatively low BA and OBP, his career OPS+ was 95 (below average), and below-average offense is no longer what one expects from an All-Star shortstop (remember, Rollins was only named to the All-Star rosters three times in his career).

So, how does Rollins’ total statistical resume stack up against his contemporary shortstops from the end of the 1990s and the 21st century?

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Needless to say, Derek Jeter is in a class all to himself on this graphic. For the others, as you look at the numbers, you can see that Rollins’ biggest asset is his longevity and that he was one of the two best base-runners of the bunch (Rollins’ career SB success rate of 81.7% is a really good number).

Still, overall, his numbers are quite similar to Tejada’s. Like Rollins, Tejada won an MVP (in 2002 with Oakland). He was also remarkably durable, averaging 158 games played from 1999-2010. Tejada was the better hitter, clearly, while Rollins was superior defensively and on the bases.

Tejada was on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2019 and got just 1.9% of the vote, excluding him from future ballots. (It should be noted, however, that towards the end of his career, Tejada was suspended for using Performance-enhancing Drugs, making him an easy “no” for the Hall voters).

We can also see here that Garciappara and Tulowitzki were superior players to Rollins. The difference, of course, is that their careers ended early and were curtailed by injury while Rollins stayed on the field. Being healthy is a useful thing when fielding a baseball team!

Anyway, if one were to choose another Hall of Fame shortstop from this group, Rollins would be the guy. As time passes, that may become the most compelling reason to punch a ticket for J-Roll for Cooperstown. After all, if one can plausibly argue that Rollins was the best shortstop in baseball not named Derek Jeter for the first quarter of the 21st Century, that’s a strong elevator pitch.

The problem is that Rollins’ overall career resume is likely to be surpassed by more than one currently active shortstop. However, if Correa, Lindor, Bogaerts, Semien, Seager, and Turner all falter in the next 5-6 years (as Nomar and Tulo did), then it will be time to reassess the Hall of Fame qualifications of 21st-century shortstops, and Rollins will look much better.

This year, Rollins’ longtime teammate Chase Utley has joined the party on the 2024 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. Utley thinks that his former double-play partner deserves a plaque in Cooperstown. “There’s no doubt in my mind that he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame,” Utley told the Philadelphia Daily News. Regarding the fact that Rollins played in all 162 games during his MVP campaign, Utley noted, “That’s huge because you don’t see that very often. He wanted to be out there whether he was feeling good or not.”

The Scribes Weigh In

Of course, Chase Utley doesn’t have a say on whether Jimmy Rollins will make the Hall of Fame (although it’s possible that he will in the future if he makes the Hall first). So, let’s take a look at some thoughts from one or two of the writers regarding Rollins’ candidacy for Cooperstown.

First, a look at a few “yes” votes, with one prominent writer noting that Utley and Rollins being on the ballot together changes his thought calculus.

“One of the things that gnaws at me most about the Hall of Fame is that Alan Trammell is in and Lou Whitaker is not. I could not stop thinking about the distinction between the Tigers’ middle-infield stars in confronting my most vexing decision on this year’s ballot — what to do with Phillies greats Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins… To me, it was impossible to vote for one and not the other. Using the metrics currently in vogue, Rollins is not Whitaker’s equal. But both were parts of essential double-play combinations for teams that won World Series. And the Phillies’ run, which included five straight division titles and back-to-back Series appearances, was more dominant than the Tigers’.”

— Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic (Jan. 5, 2024)

“Utley and Rollins were the twin-cam engine that drove those 2007-11 Phillies. And they both have compelling, though very different, Hall of Fame cases…  Was Utley really a better, more impactful up-the-middle defender than Rollins? The data says yes. The pitchers who were part of those Phillies teams say no way. If they could have the ball hit to one guy on the field in a big moment, they’d have voted unanimously for Rollins, one of them told me recently. I’m not sure why the numbers undervalue his dependability and genius-level defensive I.Q. But his teammates didn’t undervalue.“

— Jayson Stark, The Athletic (Jan. 18, 2024)

“For me, he’s one of the great shortstops for the last 25 years… I look at Rollins, the stolen base success rate that he had, the power that he had, a switch-hitter on a consistent postseason team… If you don’t want people to consider historical narrative and significance of championship teams, then do not ask people who think in the realm of anecdotes and narratives to vote… J-Roll went to the post every day and I think that when you consider what that Phillies team represented and how he was… when I think about that Phillies team, it’s the photo of Jimmy Rollins that comes up first… I look at him being a historically significant player.”

— Jon Morosi, MLB Network (Jan. 17, 2023)

“The undersized Rollins was an extremely well-rounded and durable player throughout his 17-year career… He was the leadoff man and everyday shortstop on the Phillies teams that won five consecutive N.L. East titles… While Rollins is unlikely to come anywhere close to being elected in his first year, he’s a player I don’t want to fall below the 5% minimum to stay on the ballot.”

— Steve Gardner, USA Today (Jan. 7, 2022)

Now, here are a couple of “no” votes from two of the very few writers who have written more about Hall of Fame candidates than yours truly.

“In terms of WAR, Rollins’ career mark of 47.6 ranks 26th at the position, ahead of just four of the 23 non-Negro Leagues Hall of Famers… His 40.1 JAWS ranks 32nd, ahead of only Travis Jackson, (Phil) Rizzuto, and (Rabbit) Maranville, not to mention current candidate Omar Vizquel, who’s 43rd at 36.2… That’s too low for a Hall of Famer, at least in my book. I can certainly understand why Rollins would garner some support from voters given the excitement that he produced as well as the things he accomplished, but I can’t see supporting him with a spot on my ballot.”

— Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs (Dec. 2, 2022)

“Jimmy Rollins was a terrific player who you could count on every day. But he was a below-average hitter in total, his glove was very good but probably not at the Ozzie Smith, Andrelton Simmons, Aparicio level, and all in all (in my mind, anyway) there are a few shortstops ahead of him in line.”

— Joe Posnanski, JoeBlogs (Jan. 25, 2022)

Conclusion

Jimmy Rollins had an excellent career, one that’s close to being worthy of the Hall of Fame. However, in my opinion, he falls just a bit short, although I reserve the right to change my mind in the future. I put a lot of value on his durability and how he made a positive contribution to his teams’ success for almost every season of his career. His WAR might be a bit lacking, but the last word in WAR is “Replacement,” and he almost never needed to be replaced. That’s valuable, especially at a premium position.

Still, before I finish, I need to revisit (and add some more context to) a statistic I shared earlier. Earlier, I noted that Rollins is the only shortstop in the history of baseball to hit 200 home runs, leg out 100 triples, hit over 500 doubles, and steal at least 400 bases. That’s an impressive nugget, but it’s a rigged statistic designed to meet some of Rollins’ numbers.

Although there are no other shortstops who have done this, two other players have. One is Hall of Famer Paul Molitor; Johnny Damon is the other. Damon had an excellent career (56.3 WAR, 104 OPS+, 2,769 Hits) but only got 1.9% of the vote in his one turn on the BBWAA ballot for Cooperstown in 2018. If that gerrymandered statistic is good enough to put Rollins into the Hall, then Damon should be there too.

Rollins got 12.9% of the vote last year. That’s significantly above the minimum of 5% required to remain on future ballots, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him last all ten years of his eligibility, after which he’ll be eligible for the Eras Committee. He might fare better in a small-committee format, where there are only 16 voters. J-Roll’s popularity with his peers, combined with his solid basic resume (MVP, 4 GG’s, WS champion, nearly 2,500 hits, durable), makes him a strong possibility to get a plaque in Cooperstown that way.

Regarding the Eras Committee, recent history has shown that the committee members value longevity and historically significant numbers. Rollins had longevity and, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi noted, he had “historical significance.” It’s why I think Rollins will eventually be a Hall of Famer.

If it happens, the Hall will not be diminished, because he was indeed a better player than many enshrined in Cooperstown and has been a great ambassador for the game of baseball.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on X @cooperstowncred.

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