Joe Nathan and the Cooperstown Closer Conundrum

From 2003-13, Joe Nathan was arguably the second-best relief pitcher in all of Major League Baseball, second only to the greatest of all-time, Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera. Overall, in his 16-year MLB career, Nathan saved 377 games, the 8th highest total in baseball history. The right-handed throwing Nathan, a big man at 6’4″, 230 pounds, featured a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider, leading to an elite strikeout rate of 9.5 per 9 innings. Nathan was an All-Star six times and helped his teams to six playoff appearances.

Nathan, who last pitched in the majors in 2016, is on the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) Hall of Fame ballot for the first time right now. As we’ll see, Nathan has elite rate stats as a relief pitcher (ERA, WHIP, SO/BB, SO/9, BA). Statistically, he has many similarities to Billy Wagner, who is on the BBWAA ballot for the 7th time and received a solid 46.4% of the vote in 2021 (a player needs to get 75% to earn a plaque in baseball’s shrine in Cooperstown, New York).

The conundrum that confounds many Hall of Fame analysts is how to properly assess the relative value of a pitcher’s performance in high-leverage situations on a nightly basis (the 9th inning) against the fact that closers pitch in far fewer innings than starting pitchers. Excluding the Negro League Hall of Famers (for whom the statistical record is incomplete), the fewest number of career innings pitched for a Hall of Famer is 1,042 (for Bruce Sutter, who saved exactly 300 games). Wagner finished his career with 903 career innings pitched, Nathan with 923.1.

The early trends (recorded by Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker) show that Nathan will fall short of the 5% minimum required to return on future BBWAA ballots. Out of the first 168 votes recorded, only four writers (2.4%) have checked Nathan’s name. In this piece, I’ll present the pros and cons of Nathan’s Cooperstown candidacy and, more broadly, discuss the relative value of closers compared to other Hall of Fame candidates. Additionally, because he had a remarkably similar career and is also on the BBWAA ballot for the first time, I’ll look closely at Jonathan Papelbon.

Cooperstown Cred: Joe Nathan (RP)

• Giants (1999-03), Twins (2004-11), Rangers (2012-13), Tigers (2014-15), Cubs (2016), Giants (2016)
• Career: 64-34 (.653), 2.87 ERA
• Career: 377 Saves, 46 Blown Saves (89.1%)
• Career: 151 ERA+, 26.4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 6-time All-Star
• Finished in the top 5 of the A.L. Cy Young voting twice

(cover photo: Pioneer Press/John Doman)

Joe Nathan: Early Career

Joseph Michael Nathan was born on November 22nd, 1974, in Houston, Texas but grew up in Pine Bush, New York (about 80 miles north of New York City). Nathan played baseball and basketball and ran track at Pine Bush High School. A late bloomer who was only 6’1″ at the time he graduated, Nathan wasn’t considered much of a prospect in high school. He played shortstop at Stony Brook University (Division III) on Long Island. As Nathan grew to 6’4″, some scouts noticed his strong arm and pitcher’s body. He was drafted in the 6th round of the MLB amateur draft in 1995 by the San Francisco Giants.

In his first year as a professional (in Bellingham, Washington), Nathan played shortstop. In 56 games, he hit .232 with 3 HR and 20 RBI while making 26 errors. The Giants weren’t impressed and were determined to turn him into a pitcher. Nathan initially wasn’t interested, choosing instead to return to Stony Brook, where he received a degree in business management. Nathan changed his mind and returned to baseball in 1997; he posted a 2.47 ERA in 62 innings in Salem, Oregon. Nathan moved up the ladder fairly quickly and made his MLB debut with the Giants (at age 24) on April 21st, 1999.

1999-2003: Joe Nathan with the Giants

Nathan, whose opportunity resulted from veteran Mark Gardner going on the disabled list, got off to a terrific start as a starting pitcher. He gave up just a pair of runs in 15 innings in his first two outings, winning both games. After his first start (7 IP, 0 ER), Giants pitching coach Ron Perranoski called it the best debut he had seen in the majors since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981. When Gardner returned, Nathan went to the bullpen and, a few weeks later, back to the minor leagues (to the AAA Fresno Bees). Manager Dusty Baker explained that Nathan was sent down to continue his development as a starting pitcher. In August and September, Nathan was back with the Giants and finished the season with a 7-4 record and 4.18 ERA.

Nathan was a member of Baker’s starting rotation to start the 2000 season but went on the disabled list with shoulder tightness after a disastrous early May start at Coors Field (2 IP, 12 Runs, 10 ER). In June, Nathan returned to the rotation but went back on the DL in mid-July. He was used out of the bullpen upon his return in August but was shut down after September 11th and had surgery on his rotator cuff and labrum in the offseason. For the year, Nathan posted a 5.21 ERA in 93.1 innings.

In the spring of 2001, it was clear that the surgery had diminished Nathan’s arm strength. After giving up 12 runs in just four innings of work in the Cactus League, at age 26, he was sent back to AAA Fresno. Unfortunately, the life never returned to Nathan’s right arm. With his fastball topping out in the mid-80s, Nathan’s 2001 season (split between Fresno and AA Shreveport) was positively terrible: he went 3-11 with a 7.29 ERA in 108.2 innings and almost quit the game.

Nathan, now 27, started the 2002 season in Fresno and continued to struggle initially. Overall, he went 6-12 with a 5.60 ERA, but things looked brighter by the end of the summer. The big right-hander’s fastball was back into the mid-90s. When the big league rosters expanded in September, Nathan was back with the Giants for the first time in 24 months. Nathan made four appearances out of the bullpen and tossed 3.1 scoreless innings as a mop-up man. He was not included on the postseason roster (the Giants made it to Game 7 of the World Series).

With no more minor league options, the Giants had to keep Nathan on the big league roster in 2003 or leave him open to a waiver claim, and the club decided to keep the 28-year old righty, utilizing him out of the bullpen. Pitching for new manager Felipe Alou, Nathan flourished in his new role. After starting the season as a middle reliever, Nathan eventually emerged as the primary set-up man to closer Tim Worrell. He went 12-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 79 innings, helping the Giants to 100 wins and an N.L. West title.

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Nathan’s postseason debut was inauspicious. In Game 2 of the NLDS (against the Florida Marlins), he started the top of the 6th inning with the Giants clinging to a 5-4 lead. Nathan struck out rookie Miguel Cabrera to start the frame, but the second batter, Juan Encarnacion, hit a solo home run to tie the score. After giving up three straight singles, he was replaced by Jason Christiansen, who gave up a two-run double to allow two more runs to score (both of which were credited to Nathan’s pitching line). Nathan was the losing pitcher, and the Giants fell to the Marlins in four games.

2004-05: Trade to Minnesota and an All-Star

In mid-November, Joe Nathan was traded (along with pitchers Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano) to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for catcher A.J. Pierzynski. Ron Gardenhire’s Twins had been a playoff team in 2003, but their closer (Eddie Guardado) was a free agent. Nathan was anointed as the team’s new closer in the spring of 2004.

Now 29 years old, Nathan took to his new role instantly. He saved 22 games (in 23 opportunities) in the first half of the season while posting a 1.13 ERA, making him an easy choice to appear in his first All-Star Game. Overall, the Twins’ new closer saved 44 games (out of 47 chances) with a 1.62 ERA (294 ERA+). He struck out 11.1 batters per 9 innings and had a WHIP (walks plus hits per 9 innings) of 0.982. He finished tied for 4th in the Cy Young Award voting, behind teammate Johan Santana, Curt Schilling, and Mariano Rivera.

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Thanks largely to Santana’s and Nathan’s efforts, the Twins won 92 games and the A.L. Central title, setting up an NLDS date with the New York Yankees. In Game 1 at Yankee Stadium, Santana matched up against future Hall of Famer Mike Mussina. After seven scoreless innings by Santana and a clean 8th by Juan Rincon, Nathan retired the side in order in the bottom of the 9th to record the save in the Twins’ 2-0 victory.

Game 2 went to extra innings; in the top of the 12th, Torii Hunter hit a solo home run to give Minnesota a 6-5 lead. Nathan came in to close in the bottom of the frame. But, with one out, he gave up back-to-back walks followed by a ground-rule double by Alex Rodriguez to tie the score at 6 (Derek Jeter would have scored had the ball not bounced over the wall). After an intentional walk to Gary Sheffield, Gardenhire brought in J.C. Romero, who promptly gave up a game-winning sacrifice fly to Hideki Matsui. The Yankees went on to win the next two games to advance to an ultimately doomed ALCS rematch against the Boston Red Sox.

Nathan was an All-Star again in 2005 (43 saves) but wasn’t quite as dominant as he was in 2004 (5 blown saves, 2.70 ERA). Still, he improved his WHIP (0.971) and strikeout rate (12.1 SO/9). The Twins also regressed slightly, winning just 83 games to finish out of the postseason party.

2006-09: Consistent Excellence

Although he was bypassed for the All-Star Game, Joe Nathan had arguably his best season in 2006. Nathan converted 36 of 38 save opportunities while also going 7-0 with a 1.58 ERA. His WHIP (0.790), SO/9 (12/5), and Batting Average Against (.158) were all the best marks he would ever post in his career. In the last few months of the season, Nathan was virtually untouchable, posting a 1.17 ERA in 38 games with just one blown save in 27 opportunities.

It was an ensemble effort for the Twins in 2006, who won 96 games to edge out the Detroit Tigers by one game for the A.L. Central title. Santana won his second Cy Young Award, first baseman Justin Morneau was the league’s MVP, Joe Mauer emerged as a top-flight catcher (he led the A.L. with a .347 BA), and rookie left-hander Francisco Liriano was brilliant.

However, the Twins bats went silent in the ALDS, and they were swept in three games by the Oakland Athletics. Nathan appeared in only one game (Game 2), closing out the 9th in a losing effort for the team.

Minnesota had an off-year in 2007 (79 wins), but Nathan continued to dominate, albeit at a lesser level than in 2006. He successfully closed out 37 out of 41 opportunities, with a higher ERA (2.70) and WHIP (1.019) and a lower SO/9 rate (9.7).

The Twins were forced to trade Santana in the offseason between 2007 and ’08 due to his impending free agency. Nathan, however, was within the team’s budget. Before the season, Nathan was signed to a four-year, $47 million extension. Nathan rewarded the team with another superb season; he was an All-Star again while posting the lowest ERA (1.33) of his career. Even so, the few runs he gave up were ill-timed; he saved 39 games but blew six saves, the most to date in his career. Ultimately, the six blown saves were costly, as the 88-win Twins finished the regular season tied for the division lead with the Chicago White Sox. Ultimately, the Twins lost the 163rd game of the season 1-0.

In 2009, the Twins won one fewer game than in ’08, but 86 wins were enough to tie for the lead in the A.L. Central. Mauer had an MVP season (leading the A.L. in BA/OBP/SLG) while All-Star Nathan continued his run of excellence. He saved 47 games (a career-best) while blowing only five leads, posting a 2.10 ERA along the way.

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Anyway, the Twins were tied once again for the division lead after 162 games, this time with the Detroit Tigers. Nathan was a footnote in the Twins’ 12-inning victory but an important one. In a rare opportunity to enter the game in the middle of the inning, Nathan came into the contest in the top of the 8th with two runners on and one out. He got two outs and another three in the 9th to prolong the game.

The Twins were up against the Yankees again in the ALDS, and this edition of the Bronx Bombers won 103 games in the regular season. After the Yankees won Game 1, the Twins carried a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 9th inning at Yankee Stadium. Gardenhire summoned Nathan to close it out but, once again, A-Rod got the better of him, drilling a game-tying two-run home run to center field. The Yankees went on to win 4-3 in the bottom of the 11th on a walk-off solo homer by Mark Teixeria (also a first-time candidate on the 2022 BBWAA ballot).

Two nights later, Nathan came into the game in the bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded and one out with the Twins trailing 2-1. He allowed the first two batters (Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano) to deliver run-scoring singles, expanding the Yankees’ lead to 4-1. Rivera closed out the game in the bottom of the 9th in the final game ever played at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome.

2010-11: Lost Year and Final Season in the Twin Cities

Shortly after the end of the 2009 season, Joe Nathan had surgery to remove bone spurs and chips from his right elbow. Then, during spring training, he tore his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), requiring Tommy John surgery.

When Nathan returned in 2011, the Twins were playing in Target Field, and Nathan successfully closed out a 2-1 victory in the team’s home opener. It was his third save in as many opportunities. However, Nathan blew his next two save chances (both in Tampa) and had an ERA of 10.00 at the end of April. Nathan lost the closer’s job to Matt Capps but regained it after the All-Star break. Overall, after posting a 7.71 ERA in his first 18 appearances, Nathan finished the season with a 3.18 ERA in 30 games, with 11 saves, 6 holds, and just one blown save.

Still, with a 4.84 ERA overall, it was the worst season of Nathan’s career since his 2000 campaign with the Giants. After the season, the Twins declined to exercise the $12.5 million option on his contract, allowing him to become a free agent. In November, he signed a two-year contract with the Texas Rangers for $14.5 million.

2012-13: Texas Rangers

Joining the Rangers was a great opportunity for 37-year-old Joe Nathan. The 2011 Twins won just 63 games, while Ron Washington’s Rangers had won the A.L. pennant in the previous two seasons. Texas had a strong closer from 2011 (Neftali Feliz) but had plans to move him to the starting rotation. (The Feliz plan ended early; after eight outings, he was felled by a torn UCL of his own and had to have Tommy John surgery).

Nathan had a bumpy start in Texas (two losses and a blown save in his first four games) but settled in nicely, going on a run of 31 games in which he was a perfect 16-for-16 in save opportunities while posting a 0.85 ERA. For the fifth time in his career, Nathan was an All-Star and finished the season with 37 converted saves (with just three blown) and a 2.80 ERA.

Led by third baseman Adrian Beltre (a near-certain future Hall of Famer), the Rangers finished the regular season with a 93-69 record, putting them one game behind Oakland in the A.L. West. The 2012 campaign was the first in which baseball expanded from 8 to 10 playoff teams. The Rangers were matched up in the first-ever A.L. Wild Card Game against the Baltimore Orioles. The O’s had a 3-1 lead when Nathan entered the game in the top of the 9th to try to keep the Rangers close. However, after a walk, an out, and a double, Nathan gave up an RBI single to Manny Machado and a sacrifice fly to Robert Andino to allow Baltimore to extend the lead to 5-1. The O’s would close out the Rangers in the bottom of the 9th.

At 38, Nathan had another superb season in 2013, one of his best and one worthy of his 6th All-Star nod. He saved 43 games (out of 46 chances) while posting a 1.32 ERA and 0.897 WHIP, both the second-best marks of his career. The Rangers finished the regular season with a 91-71 record, putting them in a tie for the second Wild Card with Tampa Bay. For the third time in six years, Nathan’s team had to play a 163rd regular-season game. Nathan never appeared in this one as David Price tossed a complete game to lead the Rays to a 5-2 win.

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2014-16: Joe Nathan’s Final Years

Joe Nathan became a free agent again after the 2013 campaign and signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Detroit Tigers. Jim Leyland’s Tigers, the A.L. Central champs in 2013, featured three future Hall of Famers, starters Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, along with MVP and Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera. What the Tigers needed was a proven stopper to finish games.

The Tigers repeated as A.L. Central champs despite an off-year from their 39-year-old closer. Nathan saved 35 games but also had seven blown saves (a career-high) and a 4.81 ERA. The Tigers were swept in three games by the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS, with Nathan retiring three batters in a non-save situation.

Nathan made just four pitches in 2015 before being sidelined with what was diagnosed as a flexor sprain. Then, shortly after beginning his first rehab appearance, he felt a pop in his elbow; he suffered both a torn ulnar collateral ligament and torn pronator teres muscle. At the age of 40, Nathan underwent his second Tommy John surgery, ending his season but not his career just yet.

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Nathan attempted to come back in 2016 but pitched in just 13 games (tossing 6.1 scoreless innings) with the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants. Nathan, now 42, signed a minor league contract with the Washington Nationals with an invitation to spring training before the 2017 season. He appeared in 17 games in AAA Syracuse, posting a 6.19 ERA in 16 innings, and was released at the end of May. He signed a one-day contract with the Twins in September and officially announced his retirement.

The Hall of Fame Case for Joe Nathan

Joe Nathan finished his career with 377 saves. That’s the 8th highest total in Major League Baseball history, putting him ahead of Hall of Famers Rollie Fingers, Bruce Sutter, and Goose Gossage but behind non-Hall of Famers Francisco Rodriguez, John Franco, and Billy Wagner. Rodriguez will be eligible for the BBWAA ballot in one year, while Wagner is on the ballot for the 7th time right now. Wagner received 46.4% of the vote in 2021 and is currently polling at 48.2%, according to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker.

Wagner is well short of the 75% needed to get a plaque in Cooperstown but, if he breaks the 50% barrier in the next four years, he’s a near-certainty to get the Hall call eventually. Every player in the history of the BBWAA balloting who has earned at least 50% in the vote has ultimately gone on to make the Hall of Fame via either the BBWAA or the Eras Committee (previously known as the Veterans Committee). As we’ll see, Nathan’s Cooperstown credentials are slightly lower across the board compared to Wagner. However, if Wags becomes a Hall of Famer (which is likely), it would be to Nathan’s benefit.

Nathan’s career save total is a bit low for modern closer (he’ll likely be passed soon on the saves list by Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen), but he has some other statistical nuggets that point in his favor.

For pitchers with at least 200 career saves:

• Nathan’s career save percentage (89.1%) is the second-best in baseball history. He’s barely behind Kimbrel (89.6%) and a tiny fraction ahead of Rivera.
• His career WAR (26.4) is 8th best, behind six Hall of Famers and Wagner.
• His 30.6 career WPA (Win Probability Added) is 5th best, behind Hall of Famers Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Gossage, and Lee Smith (more on WPA later).
• His adjusted ERA+ (151) is 8th best, behind Rivera, Kimbrel, Wagner, Jonathan Papelbon (also on the 2022 BBWAA ballot), Aroldis Chapman, Jansen, and Tom Henke.

Nathan’s ranks are hurt here (and in other statistical categories) by his first two seasons as a starting pitcher. While those years are a part of his record, if he is to make the Hall of Fame it will be based on his 14 years as a reliever.

So, how does he rank among the 200-save closers when evaluating those 52 men solely based on their efforts out of the bullpen?

• His ERA+ from 2002-16 is 179, which is lower than only the ERA+ posted by Rivera (205), Kimbrel (188), and Wagner (187). However, since Kimbrel is still active and has been inconsistent in recent years, it’s likely that eventually, Nathan will be behind only Rivera and Wagner in ERA+ as a relief pitcher.
• For those who aren’t fans of the “plus stats,” Nathan’s reliever ERA (2.50) is 8th best, behind Rivera (2.06), Kimbrel (2.18), Wagner (2.31), Chapman (2.36), Jansen (2.37), Papelbon (2.45), and Hoyt Wilhelm (2.49). However, since three of those pitchers are still active, Nathan’s rank could move up here in the years to come.
• Nathan’s WHIP (walks plus hits per inning) as a reliever (1.035) is 7th best, behind Jansen, Kimbrel, Rivera, Eckersley, Wagner, and Papelbon.
• His Batting Average Against (BAA) was .197 as a relief pitcher, the 7th lowest for the 200-save club. He’s behind Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen, Wagner, Troy Percival, and Armando Benitez.

Joe Nathan’s Peak (2003-13)

When evaluating Hall of Fame candidates statistically, there are generally two paths to Cooperstown. The most common path is based on a player’s complete career statistics. The other is based on a player’s peak performance. Nathan has a strong peak performance case. From 2003-13, Nathan had the second-most saves in baseball (to Rivera).

Additionally, for pitchers with at least 300 IP, here are Nathan’s ranks from 2003-13:

• WAR (25.1): second-best (to Rivera).
• WPA (32.1): second-best (to Rivera).
• ERA+ (195): third-best, behind Rivera and Wagner.
• ERA (2.24): third-best, behind Rivera and Wagner.
• WHIP (0.973): third-best, behind Rivera and Wagner.
• BAA (.188): third-best, behind Wagner and Carlos Marmol.

Given that Wagner’s career ended after the 2010 season (and, therefore, he saved 99 fewer games in these years), it’s fair to say that Joe Nathan was the second-best relief pitcher in all of baseball for these eleven years.

Problems with the Case as Presented

First, let’s look at the peak performance argument. Being the second-best at a “position” (if we’re going to classify the specialty of closing games as a position) for eleven years is a strong argument for the Hall of Fame, especially when you’re second-best to the best ever.

However, that’s not enough by itself to make a Hall of Fame argument. If you take an 11-year period from 1989-99, the top two relief pitchers (by WAR) were Jeff Montgomery and Rick Aguilera. The top two saves leaders for those years were Dennis Eckersley and Randy Myers. You can find tons of players who were the best or second-best in a key statistical category for eleven years who didn’t have overall careers that merited a plaque in Cooperstown.

In fact, there are examples from the years of Nathan’s peak (2003-13) in which the best or second-best player at a position is not worthy of the Hall.

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Some of the players on the graphic above are already in the Hall of Fame. Several others are on the 2022 ballot with Nathan, including first-time candidates Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Jimmy Rollins, Mark Teixeira, and Carl Crawford. I wrote recently about the Hall of Fame case for Rollins. He’s barely behind Derek Jeter on the WAR leaderboard for the entire 21st century for shortstops (47.9 to 47.6). However, he’s likely to be surpassed by several shortstops that are still playing and, in this writer’s view, falls short of worthiness for Cooperstown.

Similarly, Nathan’s record of excellence is likely to be surpassed by the trio of closers who are still active, as we’ll see next.

The 200-Save Pitcher Leader Boards

Let’s move on to something that might have seemed obvious as a chink in the Nathan Hall of Fame armor. On the statistical leaderboards for 200-save pitchers, Nathan is behind several pitchers (including some who will never have plaques in Cooperstown) in all categories. Even if one generously excludes his two years as a failed starting pitcher (which is a part of his record), he’s still behind Papelbon in several categories and behind the still-active Kimbrel, Jansen, and Chapman in most.

Of course, Kimbrel, Jansen, and Chapman won’t be candidates for many years. They’re not true contemporaries of Joe Nathan, so let’s compare him to those who were: Wagner, Papelbon, Rodriguez (who’s going to be on the BBWAA ballot in 2023), Rivera, and Trevor Hoffman.

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As you can see, the Hall of Famer Hoffman trails in most of the rate stats, and I’ve seen some who have written that Wagner and Nathan were both superior closers. However, volume matters too.

Take a moment to allow your eyes to linger on the last four names on the list. Except for Nathan’s superior save percentage, Wagner reigns over the quartet that includes Nathan, Rodriguez, and Papelbon. It’s clear that Wagner is the best Hall of Fame candidate of those four, so until he’s got a plaque in Cooperstown, the others have no shot.

But let’s look for a moment at Nathan, K-Rod, and Papelbon without the other names and numbers.

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When comparing Nathan to K-Rod, the most significant point in Nathan’s favor is his superior success rate when closing games. But that’s it. In everything else, it’s a coin flip, also evidenced by Rodriguez being on the top of Nathan’s “similarity score” list.

Next, what about Papelbon?

Sidebar: the Career of Jonathan Papelbon

Jonathan Papelbon only pitched for 12 seasons but looked like a Hall of Famer in his first several campaigns. Besides a superb statistical record, Papelbon had the “look” of a closer. At 6’5″, 230 pounds, he had the big body of a hard-throwing stopper, and his menacing stare towards the plate was a favorite of television directors for high-definition close-ups.

Papelbon spent his first seven campaigns with the Boston Red Sox. In 2006, he was the runner-up to Justin Verlander for the Rookie of the Year vote, thanks to 35 saves and a sterling 0.92 ERA. Papelbon backed that up with 37 saves and a 1.85 ERA in 2007. The Red Sox were World Champions in ’07 and Papelbon was a key contributor, with a win and four saves in 10.2 scoreless innings. Papelbon got to enjoy every pitcher’s dream; he struck out the final batter to close out Boston’s four-game sweep in the Fall Classic over the Colorado Rockies.

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After four more solid seasons with the Red Sox (averaging 37 saves with a 2.75 ERA), Papelbon signed a four-year, $50 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. At the time, the deal (which included a vesting option for a fifth season) was the largest ever for a relief pitcher. Unfortunately, Papelbon joined the Phillies just in time for the end of the team’s run of excellence. Still, Papelbon delivered, averaging 35 saves in his first three seasons to go with a 2.45 ERA.

The 2015 Phillies were a lousy team who would win only 63 games, but Papelbon continued his elite pitching. Papelbon had 17 saves and a 1.59 ERA in the first four months of the season. With the Phillies out of contention in late July, the team dealt their closer to the Washington Nationals for minor-league pitcher Nick Pivetta. Interestingly, the Nationals already had a closer. Drew Storen had 29 saves and a 1.73 ERA at the time of the trade, but the team decided to install Papelbon as the new 9th-inning guy, putting Storen into a set-up role.

The Nationals, the defending N.L. East Champions, were in first place at the time of the trade, with a one-game lead over the New York Mets. The team won their first two games after the transaction (with Papelbon getting a save in his first appearance) but went into a tailspin for the last two months of the season. The team went 29-33 in their final 62 games, with both Papelbon and Storen pitching inconsistently. Storen posted a 7.56 ERA in August and September, while Papelbon had a mediocre 3.04 ERA. He saved only seven games for the Nats, with a pair of blown saves and two losses as well.

The season ended with an ugly incident in which Papelbon grabbed superstar Bryce Harper (the 2015 N.L. MVP) by the throat and drove him into the wall of the team’s dugout. The incident began when Papelbon yelled at Harper for not hustling to first base on a flyout to left field in the 8th inning of a 4-4 tie. Papelbon then gave up five runs in the top of the 9th to his former team (the Phillies) and left the field to cascading boos from the Nationals faithful. It would be Papelbon’s last appearance for the season.

Papelbon returned to the Nationals for the 2016 campaign, a rebound season for the Nats under a new manager, Dusty Baker. The veteran closer, now 35 years old, ultimately did not share in that success. In his first 32 games, Papelbon saved 19 games (with two blown saves) while posting a solid 2.56 ERA. In his next three outings, however, the veteran closer got lit up, giving up eight runs while recording just three outs. And so, concerned with Papelbon’s declining fastball velocity, the Nats traded for another closer, Pittsburgh’s Mark Melancon. Two weeks later, after two more outings, Papelbon was released. He would never pitch in Major League Baseball again.

Joe Nathan vs. Jonathan Papelbon

So, let’s return to our regularly scheduled programming by comparing the two new closers on the 2022 Hall of Fame ballot, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon:

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It’s hard to pick Nathan over Papelbon when you look at these two big closers side-by-side. The most significant difference between the two is the innings pitched, but Nathan’s edge is due to his 183.2 innings in 1999-2000, when he was primarily a starting pitcher. In the meantime, Papelbon has a significant advantage in ERA, WHIP, and SO/BB ratio.

So, what if we were to ignore Nathan’s first two seasons in San Francisco and just consider his career as a relief pitcher? Again, I don’t think it’s fair or proper for a Hall of Fame voter to pretend those seasons didn’t exist, but the exercise here is to compare Nathan’s excellence as a relief pitcher to Papelbon’s.

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Well, sports fans, those numbers are really close! Besides their nearly identical regular-season numbers as closers, Papelbon has a massive edge in postseason productivity, with a 1.00 ERA in 27 innings compared to Nathan’s 8.10 ERA in 10 postseason innings. That’s a small sample size, to be sure, but it’s a matter of record that Nathan was a contributing culprit to his teams’ failures to ever win a postseason series.

It seems to me that, if at the end of this piece, you conclude that Joe Nathan is a Hall of Famer, then you have to reach the same conclusion with Jonathan Papelbon and probably with Francisco Rodriguez as well.

Win Probability Added (WPA)

Joe Nathan’s superb success rate in closing games (89.1%) is one of his most substantial credentials for a plaque in Cooperstown. But how does one measure the value of that (almost all accomplished in just one inning of work) compared to the five to eight innings of work shouldered by a starting pitcher? One statistic does this: it’s called Win Probably Added (WPA). You can click here for a full explanation, but here’s the basic description:

Every play in baseball increases or decreases the odds that a team will win or lose. On the game logs on Baseball-Reference, you can see how each play in a game adds to the likelihood of a team winning or losing. For example, a home run in the bottom of the 9th inning of a tie game is inherently more valuable than a home run earlier in the game. And, thus, you get more WPA “points” for the clutch act. A player’s season or career WPA goes up or down depending on the outcome of each play. It goes down with outs, up with hits or walks. For a pitcher, WPA goes up with outs, down with hits. Because 9th-inning relief pitchers are often pitching with the game on the line, each play has a higher impact on his WPA than an identical play with the same score earlier in the game. So, this is how we can compare relievers to starters because that closer’s one inning is sometimes more crucial than all of the innings thrown by the starter combined.

Nathan’s career WPA is 30.6. That’s the 40th best total for all pitchers (starters and relievers), dating back to 1916, the earliest date that Baseball-Reference calculates the statistic. Nathan’s total is better than 22 pitchers in the Hall of Fame (who debuted in 1916 or later). Big names such as Bert Blyleven, Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins, and Phil Niekro are included on the list of hurlers with a WPA lower than Nathan’s. Among relief pitchers, Nathan’s WPA is higher than Hall of Famers Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Rollie Fingers, and Hoyt Wilhelm.

Among relief pitchers, Nathan’s 30.6 WPA is the fourth highest in baseball history, behind only Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Goose Gossage. It’s better than Wagner’s 29.0. It’s also higher than Papelbon’s 28.3. However, it’s not much higher than Papelbon’s total. Given how similar their other stats are, I would submit my previous statement that “if Nathan is a Hall of Famer, then Papelbon is a Hall of Famer” would still apply.

Are Closers Overrated in General?

Starting with Fingers in the early 1970s, relief pitchers have become some of the biggest stars in baseball. The elite closers are the pitchers who shake hands with their catchers after winning games (or jump into their arms after a postseason series win). The best closers of the LCS era (from 1969-94) often combined their late-inning dominance with a flair that helped make them iconic and, well, famous.

However, it is undeniable that many top relief pitchers in Major League Baseball history arrived at their bullpen excellence after struggling as starting pitchers. That’s certainly true for Joe Nathan, who had a 4.60 ERA in his 29 starts in 1999-2000. Take a look at the starting pitcher numbers for some other notable relief pitchers. I’ve picked 15 names here that include four Hall of Famers, three MVP winners, and six Cy Young Award winners.

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I think you’d agree that most of the names on this list could be fairly characterized as having failed as starting pitchers, with Dennis Eckersley being the notable exception. In Eckersley’s case, though, he indeed was becoming a failed starter, having gone 6-11 with a 4.57 ERA for the 1986 Chicago Cubs. It was the trade to Oakland and partnership with Hall of Fame skipper Tony La Russa that revitalized Eckersley’s career and turned him into a Hall of Famer himself.

Again, except for Eckersley, none of these other pitchers ever authored a season as a starting pitcher that would have given them any consideration for down-ballot Cy Young Award votes.

You might notice I haven’t answered the question yet: are closers overrated in general? My answer is that, yes, they are, a little bit, especially when it comes to the Hall of Fame.

One-Inning Wonder

Rollie Fingers was a rookie in 1969 and was the first really big star as a relief pitcher because of his crucial role in winning three World Series titles with the Oakland A’s in 1972-74. Goose Gossage debuted in 1972 and became an All-Star closer with the Chicago White Sox in 1975. Eckersley debuted in 1975 (becoming a reliever in ’87), Bruce Sutter in 1976, Lee Smith in 1980, Trevor Hoffman in 1993, and Mariano Rivera in 1995. Those seven men are all in the Hall of Fame. The only other relief pitcher to earn the honor is Hoyt Wilhelm, who won 143 games and saved 228 with a 2.52 ERA from 1952-72.

When Fingers, Gossage, and Sutter were plying their trade, closers were called “firemen” because they often came into the game with runners on base. Additionally, the closers of the 1970s and 1980s often went multiple innings to earn their saves. It’s a lot harder to save a game when you need to get six-to-nine outs compared to just three. When researching my piece about Billy Wagner several years ago, I downloaded the game logs of all of the top closers and created two categories of saves. I defined an “easy” save as a save in which the closer entered the game at the start of the 9th inning (or with a lead in extras) and had a two or three-run lead. I defined “tougher” saves as saves in which the closer has just a one-run lead in the 9th (or extras), entered the game with runners on base, or entered the game in the 8th inning or earlier.

Here are the numbers for Wagner, Nathan, Papelbon, and the six Hall of Fame closers who came in the decades after Wilhelm’s career was ending.

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Before you scream, “look, Nathan had a better save rate for the tougher saves than Fingers, Gossage, Sutter, and Smith,” remember that the closers of the ’70s and 80s had lots of challenging saves that were of multiple innings. Most of Nathan’s “tougher” saves were in a clean 9th inning with a one-run lead. He had 109 saves of that type for a total of 315 clean, one-inning saves.

Regardless, 59% of Nathan’s career saves came in situations that have an extremely high win probability. If you have a two-run lead, the win probability is between 90% and 94%. With a three-run lead, the odds are between 95% and 97%. Entering a game with a two or three-run lead in the 9th inning (or extras) is a relatively cushy gig compared to the kind of situations that the closers from the 70s and 80s faced.

Nathan only inherited 143 runners on base in his entire career (54 of them were in 2003 with the Giants when he was a set-up man). He allowed 32.1% of those runners to score, which is a poor rate. What made Hoffman a Hall of Famer to me (besides the 601 total saves) is that only allowed 20% of his 346 inherited runners to score.

It is true that, if relievers are ever to be elected into the Hall of Fame again, we’re going to have accept the way closers are used today, which is mostly in a clean 9th inning. But, for me, if you’re going to get into the Hall that way, you need more than 377 career saves.

Hall of Famers by Position

If you’ll recall, earlier I asked if relief pitchers were inherently overrated when it comes to their representation in the Hall of Fame. This is a list of the 51 players who were rookies in 1969 or later who have since been inducted into the Hall. I’ve broken down the list by each player’s position of greatest value (by WAR). For the pitchers, I’ve listed the starters and relievers separately, with the caveat that putting Eckersley in the reliever bucket was a judgment call. By WAR, Eckersley had far more value as a starting pitcher, but it was his years as a closer that gave him his plaque in Cooperstown.

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What’s striking here is that there have been more closers from the past 53 years elected to the Hall of Fame than players at any position on the diamond. Again, “relief pitcher” isn’t a position on the diamond per se but I’ve listed it as such to make a point.

What’s also especially notable is that there are only two more Hall of Fame starting pitchers than relief pitchers among all hurlers who were rookies in 1969 or later.

Now, by using 1969 as a line of demarcation, I’ve excluded an entire generation of starting pitchers who excelled in the 1970s. So, if you look at all Hall of Famers who were rookies during the “expansion era” (1961 and beyond), the roster of starting pitchers grows from 9 to 18. From 1961 to 1968, nine different Hall of Fame starters had their official rookie campaigns (Gaylord Perry, Phil Niekro, Catfish Hunter, Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer, Fergie Jenkins, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, and Tom Seaver).

Even so, the ratio of SP-to-RP from 1961 and beyond is 18-to-7 (about 2.5-to-1). Considering that, when constructing an MLB roster, you need five starting pitchers (or four in the 1960s and 197os), the ratio should be higher.

Now, it is true that relief pitching, in general, is more prominent than it used to be. Starting pitchers are throwing fewer innings than ever before, and teams with plans to do well in October have multiple pitchers on their roster who have the ability to close games. But you can look at team payrolls to determine what type of pitcher teams value more. The biggest contract ever given to a relief pitcher is the $86 million contract signed by Aroldis Chapman before the 2017 season. Elite starting pitchers, the kind of pitchers who might become Hall of Famers in the future, get contracts for above $200 million.

Who’s Missing from the Hall of Fame (by Position)

There’s another point here. There are dozens of players from the expansion era who are strong candidates for the Hall of Fame who have yet to be honored with a plaque in Cooperstown. These are the “overlooked” players. Baseball fans from across the USA all have their favorites, players who they feel have been “snubbed” by the Hall. I’ve written about dozens of these players. It’s actually the primary purpose of “Cooperstown Cred.”

This is a list of players (by position) from 1961 to the present who aren’t in the Hall of Fame but have solid cases for Cooperstown. In compiling this list, I used three criteria:

• I’ve included every player who once got at least 5% of the BBWAA vote one time.
• Any player who has appeared on an Eras or Veterans Committee ballot.
• Any player with a WAR of 60 or more.

I also added the names of about a dozen players that don’t meet any of those criteria but that I personally feel have a strong case for Cooperstown.

(For the record, I’m not including players making their debut on the 2022 ballot because they’re technically not “overlooked” yet with no known results).

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I’m sure you’re all shaking your head at some of the names I put on the list. Again, I used very loose standards: 5% once upon a time on the BBWAA ballot (that list includes Fernando Valenzuela, Willie McGee, George Foster, Bob Boone, Sparky Lyle, and Wilbur Wood) or that the player was once placed on an Eras or Veterans Committee ballot (which includes Joe Carter, Dan Quisenberry, Ron Guidry, Al Oliver, and Mike Marshall).

The players I put on this list who didn’t meet any of the three criteria (but I included based on my personal opinion) are Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, Bret Saberhagen, Dave Stieb, Jorge Posada, Bill Freehan, Darrell Evans, Bert Campaneris, Jim Fregosi, Lance Berkman, Johnny Damon, and Jim Wynn. I’m not declaring that all of these players are worthy of the Hall of Fame, but that they are strong candidates who deserve to be on future Eras Committee ballots.

Anyway, it’s obvious here that there are far fewer overlooked relief pitcher candidates than among starting pitchers and among position players generally. Based on the criteria, the list has just four overlooked relievers. To me, the only candidate besides Wagner who has a strong case is Dan Quisenberry, who basically had the same career as Bruce Sutter but was used as a set-up man for the last several years of his career, causing him to fall far short of the 300-save milestone that used to mean something. However, Quiz is a viable candidate (at least in my eyes) because his career is so similar to Sutter’s. But Sutter has the weakest resume of the relief pitchers in the Hall.

The Case of Johan Santana

To finish this point, I’ll use one example of overlooked players and note the presence of Santana on the list; he was a personal choice of mine and illustrative about how relief pitchers have been overrepresented compared to starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame in recent decades.

Santana, Nathan’s teammate with the Twins from 2004-07, had a brief but brilliant career as a starting pitcher. Santana won two Cy Young Awards and had two seasons in which he finished 3rd in the voting. Shoulder woes limited Santana’s career to 2,025.2 innings and his career was over at the age of 33. Because of his paltry total of 139 career wins and presence on a stacked BBWAA ballot in 2018, Santana was “one and done,” earning just 2.4% of the vote, eliminating him future BBWAA ballots.

Despite his poor showing on the 2018 ballot, I submit to all that Santana is a vastly superior candidate for the Hall of Fame than Nathan. After all, he was easily the best pitcher in all of baseball from 2004-10. That’s a seven-year peak standard and Santana blows away the competition for those years. If you prefer to use eleven years (as we did with Nathan), he still is arguably the second-best hurler (to Roy Halladay) from 2002-12. Santana’s career ERA+ (136) is the 12th best in the entire history of baseball for pitchers with at least 2,000 innings pitched.

Don’t believe me? How about the free market? After the 2007 season, the Twins traded Santana to the New York Mets, who promptly signed him to a six-year, $137.5 million contract. Meanwhile, the Twins kept Nathan and inked him to a four-year, $47 million deal. The Mets ultimately didn’t get their money’s worth (Santana only pitched for four seasons) but the Venezuelan lefty did earn 15.3 WAR in those four seasons, compared to the 6.2 WAR posted by Nathan from 2008-11 (remember, he had a lost year too, in 2010).

If you’re going to pick a Hall of Fame pitcher from the 2004-07 Minnesota Twins, it’s pretty obvious to me that the guy is Santana.

Conclusion

As previously noted, starting pitchers are throwing fewer innings than ever and relief pitchers, in general, are more important than at any other time in baseball history. In the past, 300 wins was the automatic line for a Hall of Fame starter, and 300 saves the bar for a relief pitcher. 300 wins are seemingly impossible for today’s starters, and 300 saves are not a big deal for relievers. Rollie Fingers was the first reliever to reach 300 saves. That was 40 years ago, in 1982. Today there are 31 pitchers who have reached that milestone.

Because Joe Nathan was 29 years old when he started closing games, he got a late start and, thus, finished with “only” 377 saves in his career. He’s a decent candidate for the Hall of Fame because of his superb rate stats (2.87 ERA, 151 ERA+) and an 11-year peak of excellence. But he falls short for me and isn’t really close. The standards for relief pitchers must be higher. I’m still not convinced that Billy Wagner deserves a plaque in Cooperstown and his numbers are much better (422 saves, 2.31 ERA, 187 ERA+).

Additionally, Nathan’s record is likely to be surpassed in the next few years by Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Aroldis Chapman, all of whom are entering their age-34 seasons. Although these men were not true contemporaries, there was an overlap of several years in their careers and they’re all the same type of specialists, one-inning closers.

Joe Nathan had a terrific career but not a Hall of Fame career.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

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