Jose Altuve’s Place in the Cooperstown Conversation

Last night in Houston, Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve continued to build on his over-sized legend by hitting a two-run, walk-off home run in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series, a blast which will send the Astros to the World Series for the second time in three years. Facing the New York Yankees fearsome closer Aroldis Chapman, Altuve swatted a 2-1 slider deep to left-center field for what was the 5th walk-off home run in LCS history that had the end result of clinching the pennant for the player’s team. Overall, as the ALCS MVP, Altuve hit .348 with 2 home runs, 3 RBI and 6 runs scored in a performance that adds to his burgeoning Hall of Fame case.

Altuve is the first player to end a postseason series with a walk-off blast against the Yankees since Pittsburgh’s Bill Mazeroski in Game 7 of the 1960 World Series. All told, it was the Astros’ second sacker’s 13th career postseason tater, which is tied for the 14th most in the history of Major League Baseball.

Besides his exploits in the ALCS, Altuve was a key cog in the Astros’ 5-game ALDS victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. In that series, the 29-year old Venezuelan hit .350 to go with 3 home runs, 5 RBI and a 1.281 OPS.

In this piece, originally written in October 2017 and updated early this morning, I’ll take a deep dive into Cooperstown progress achieved by the Astros star second baseman.

Cooperstown Cred: Jose Altuve (2B)

• Houston Astros (2011-19)
• Career: .315 BA, 128 HR, 538 RBI, 1,568 Hits, 254 SB
• Career: 126 OPS+, 38.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 6-time All-Star
• 5-time Silver Slugger winner; won 2015 Gold Glove
• 2017 A.L. MVP: .346 BA, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 160 OPS+, 8.1 WAR
• Career postseason: .281 BA, 13 HR, 28 RBI, .906 OPS

(cover photo: USA Today Sports/Troy Taormina)

How Jose Altuve Became a Household Name

Ever since 1903, when the first World Series was played, October baseball has had a way of putting the “fame” into a baseball player’s Hall of Fame resume. It’s especially true that the post-season has a way of elevating an excellent but largely overlooked player into the status of a superstar.

Up until the 2017 postseason, Jose Altuve was well known and respected among serious baseball fans but not as well known to the casual observer. I guess you would say that he was regarded as a “nice little player,” pun intended. At 5 feet 6 inches tall, according to his Baseball Reference profile, the Venezuelan-born Altuve is one of just two 66-inch players in all of Major League Baseball (the other is his former teammate Tony Kemp) and by far the most productive. In addition, he’s easily the best player to don a MLB uniform at the height of 5’6″ since New York Yankees’ legend Phil Rizzuto, who retired 63 years ago.

October 2017

Jose Altuve made a big splash right at the start of the ’17 playoffs. In Game 1 of the ALDS against the Boston Red Sox, he had his Reggie Jackson moment. OK, it wasn’t on the series-clinching World Series Game 6 stage but, in that game, Altuve belted three home runs; it was only the 10th time in baseball history that a player has swatted three taters in a post-season contest. The other nine to do it? Babe Ruth (twice), Bob Robertson, Jackson, George Brett, Adam Kennedy (yes, Adam Kennedy), Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols, Pablo Sandoval and Kike Hernandez (in the 2017 NLCS). All told, Altuve hit .533 with a 1.765 OPS in the Astros four-game series win.

Next, in the ALCS for the first time, Altuve had his Ken Griffey Jr. moment in Game 2. Facing the New York Yankees, with one out in the bottom of the 9th of a tie game, Altuve slapped a single to left field off the 6’4″ Chapman. The next batter, Carlos Correa, went the other way against Chapman, tagging a hard-hit double to right center field. Altuve raced around the base paths from first to home in just over 10 seconds, which MLB StatCast says was his fastest “first to home” time since 2015. Altuve needed every millisecond as Aaron Judge and relay man Didi Gregorius both made strong throws. Fortunately for Altuve and the Astros, catcher Gary Sanchez couldn’t field the ball cleanly; Altuve scored and the Astros had a 2-0 series lead.

After the Yankees swept three games in New York, the Astros needed to win the final two games in Houston to book a trip to the World Series. Houston’s pitchers did their part, holding the Bronx Bombers to one run. As for Houston’s star second baseman, Altuve homered in both games and delivered a key, bases loaded two-run single in the bottom of the 5th of Game 6.

2017 World Series

Even if the Astros had not won the Fall Classic, Jose Altuve’s exploits in the LDS and LCS would have been enough upon which to confer “October hero” status but, by appearing in the Fall Classic, the powerful 2nd sacker had the opportunity to shine on baseball’s biggest stage. Altuve hit .400 in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He hit just .194 in the World Series, but those few hits came in the biggest moments.

He went just 1 for 6 in Game 2; the “one” was a go-ahead solo home run to lead off the 10th inning. Then, in the wild Game 5 thriller, Altuve had two mega-moments: his three-run home run off Kenta Maeda in the bottom of the 5th to tie the score at 7 and, in his next at bat, his tie-breaking RBI double off Brandon Morrow to give the Astros a 9-8 lead. The Astros’ seven-game Series win featured two extra inning games that were all-time classics and Altuve was a crucial cog in both of those wins.

Shortly after the conclusion of the Fall Classic, Altuve was named the American League MVP for his stellar work during the regular season. All told, 2017 put the then 27-year old second baseman squarely into the Cooperstown conversation.

Jose Altuve Career Highlights

Jose Altuve was signed as an amateur free agent on March 6, 2007, two months before his 17th birthday. After hitting .389 at class A and AA in 2011, Altuve was called up to the majors and, just a couple of months past his 21st birthday, made his MLB debut on July 20th. Immediately, he became the starting second baseman for the rebuilding Astros. Altuve was hardly an instant star but a serviceable starter at the position.

In 2012, Altuve started to make a name for himself, hitting .360 in the month of April. His batting average had dipped to .303 by the Mid-Summer Classic but the hot start was good enough to earn him a berth on the National League All-Star team (this was the last year that the Astros were a member of the six-team N.L. Central before realignment put them in the A.L. West). In fairness, Altuve was not yet one of the three or four best second sackers in his league but the rule requiring at least one representative from each team was helpful. Altuve finished the season with a .290 average along with 80 runs scored and 33 stolen bases.

The 2013 season was pretty much the same; he hit .283 with 35 steals, but led the league with 13 times caught stealing and scored just 64 runs, a paltry number for player who logged 672 plate appearances and always hit first, second or third in the order. Let’s remember, though, that Houston was still in a full re-build; the 2013 edition won just 51 games and lost 111 so it’s not like Altuve had Gehrig and Ruth to drive him in.

Jose Altuve Becomes one of the Top Players in MLB

The 2014 Astros improved from 51 to 70 wins and Altuve became a legitimate All-Star and one of the game’s top players. In 2015, Houston jumped up to 86 wins and the rebuilt ‘Stros with all of their young stars made it to the post-season as a wild card team. Take a look at the year-by-year numbers during the age 24 through 29 seasons for the height-challenged man who has become the best second baseman in baseball and one of its best players overall.

WP Table Builder

Although the last two years have been shortened by injuries, the 2014-2019 version of Jose Altuve overall has clearly been a Hall of Fame caliber player. He’s averaged 194 hits per year while hitting .327 and sporting a park-adjusted 140 OPS+, which is tied for the 8th best in MLB for that span (minimum 4,000 PA). He’s behind four outfielders and three first baseman so he has demonstrably become the game’s premier hitter at the middle infield positions. During these six seasons, Altuve also has, with that minimum of 4,000 PA…

• The 4th highest WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among all players, behind only Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Josh Donaldson.
• The best batting average (.327), 20 points ahead of 2nd-place J.D. Martinez.
• The most hits (1,163), a whopping 52 more than 2nd best Charlie Blackmon.
• The 4th most stolen bases (179), behind Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, and Starling Marte, none of whom have provided remotely close to Altuve’s overall offensive value.
• The 6th most runs (564), behind Blackmon, Trout, Betts, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado.

The offensive statistics alone place him among the top 10 position players in baseball over the last seven seasons. The fact that he’s done it from the second base position makes it all the more impressive. And, among all second basemen, he garnered five straight Silver Sluggers from 2014-18 (likely to surrender that title do DJ LeMahieu this year).

Through the 2017 campaign, Altuve was one of just six players in the last 100 years to get over 200 hits four times by the end of his age 27 season and the first in over 50 years.

What kind of Hall of Fame Resume is Jose Altuve Building?

So, the question of the day is what kind of Hall of Fame resume Jose Altuve is building?

According to the “Hall of Fame Monitor” in the 2019 Bill James Handbook (published last October), the only player under 30 years of age who was closer to having a complete Hall of Fame case was Mike Trout. Years ago, James created a points scale to determine which players were most likely to make the Hall of Fame based on accomplishing the same things that already enshrined Hall of Famers have accomplished. On this scale, 100 points indicates a player who is “likely” to make the Hall. Altuve (through 2018) already had 82 points on this scale (compared to Trout’s 104).

Incidentally, an older version of James’ HOF Monitor,  found on Baseball Reference, gives Altuve 120 points (through the 2019 campaign), placing him already in the “likely” Hall of Fame range. That total will build by being a member of a pennant-winning team.

The James system, which is intended to measure who will make the Hall of Fame, not who should, awards points for accomplishing feats that are typical of players enshrined in Cooperstown. These achievements include hitting above .300 (Altuve has done that five times), leading the league in batting (he’s a three-time A.L. batting champ), getting 200 hits (he’s done that four times), making All-Star teams (6), and winning a MVP trophy.

Comparison to other 2nd Basemen in last 60 Years

So let’s compare Jose Altuve to other 2nd basemen over the past 60 years (1960-2019). This is how Altuve ranks in a variety of statistical categories with the 29 total 2nd sackers who accumulated at least 4,000 plate appearances through their age 29 seasons.

WP Table Builder

Altuve, through his age 29 season (his 9th in the majors) has a batting average (.315) only 13 points shy of the legendary Rod Carew, who hit .328 in his first 9 seasons. At this point in their respective careers, Carew had 5 batting titles (compared to Altuve’s 3). Carew had yet to win an MVP and only had two 200-hit seasons (out of 4 for his career). This is not to say that Altuve is destined for a career like Carew’s, but he might be close to that track.

There’s are some cautionary tales on this list. Altuve’s WAR through his age 29 season is 8th best, behind Joe Morgan, Roberto Alomar, Carew, Bobby Grich, Chuck Knoblauch, Lou Whitaker and Willie Randolph. Of this list, only Alomar, Morgan and Carew are Hall of Famers, although the sabermetric community is lobbying hard for Grich and Whitaker because they each posted a career WAR of over 70. You can read more about Grich here and Whitaker here.

Altuve is behind the others on the WAR list because the defensive metrics showed him to be a poor defensive player early in his career and a merely average one since then. He did win the Gold Glove in 2015 and made a couple of spectacular plays in October 2017, bolstering his “eye test” credentials as a good defender. If you look solely at oWAR (the offensive component of WAR), Altuve ranks 4th, behind only Morgan, Alomar and Carew.

What Could Go Wrong?

So, what could go wrong for Jose Altuve and his quest for the Hall of Fame? The obvious is that his career could be derailed by injuries. Also, let’s be fair also by noting that Altuve’s production has dipped in each of the last two years.

The 2018 campaign was the first in which Jose Altuve failed to play at least 147 games since his rookie year in 2011. Thanks to a right knee injury suffered in Colorado in late July, he went on the disabled list for the first time in his career (missing 21 games). For the balance of the season (after returning in late August), Altuve hit just .276 (compared to the .329 mark he had posted prior to the injury). Altuve had off-season surgery on the knee.

In 2019, the 29-year old second sacker got off to a slow start, hitting just .243 with 9 HR in his first 39 games before a left hamstring strain put him on the injured list. After missing five weeks, Altuve returned to the diamond and closer to his normal self, hitting .320 for the balance of the campaign (85 games) while posting a .944 OPS thanks to an additional 22 taters. Overall, although Altuve’s .298 BA was the first time since 2013 that he failed to hit .300, that “paltry” number was offset by his career high in home runs with 31.

As recently as two years ago (his MVP season), Altuve was a true power-speed player, hitting 24 home runs while swiping 32 bases. In 2019, he stole just 6 although that was likely due to an abundance of caution about not re-injuring the left hammy.

With Altuve set to turn 30 next May, the Astros would be wise to give him breaks from the field by utilizing him as a designated hitter occasionally. His bat certainly plays well enough to do that.

Conclusion

Unless he continues to suffer season-shortening injuries, Jose Altuve should have many good years ahead of him. He does not have to post more campaigns like his MVP season of 2017 to make the Hall of Fame but he does have to keep playing for many years and remain productive.

Keeping his career batting average above .300 (it’s currently .315) would be a big help to his future Hall of Fame prospects. Getting over 2,500 hits (he has 1,568) would practically clinch a Cooperstown plaque. Only 10 second basemen in history have topped 2,500 knocks and they’re all enshrined in the Hall of Fame except for the still-active Robinson Cano.

Another World Series title for Altuve’s Astros would help as well. What he did last night in Game 6 of the ALCS is certainly worth a great deal in putting the fame in his Hall of Fame resume.

Jose Altuve Hall of Fame odds — 70%

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Chris Bodig