Lance Berkman: Underrated Star Far Shy of Cooperstown

Today, on his 43rd birthday, I’d like to cast a spotlight on Lance Berkman, the underrated star for the Houston Astros and World Series hero for the St. Louis Cardinals. Berkman was on the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) ballot for the first time earlier this year and received just 1.2% of the vote, making him ineligible for future consideration for at least 10 years.

Berkman, arguably one of the five best hitting switch-hitters in the history of baseball, fit the profile of a first-ballot casualty. Because his career ended at the age of 37, he finished 34 home runs shy of 400 and 95 hits shy of 2,000. He didn’t have the kind of sexy career numbers that normally generally attract Hall of Fame votes. Plus, the ballot was packed with talent; it was hard for voters to make room on their ballots since the Hall continues to put a limit of 10 selections on each ballot.

During his career the colorful Berkman two nicknames bestowed upon him, Fat Elvis and Big Puma. The Fat Elvis moniker began when Berkman’s mother told Dan Patrick on the radio that her son sort of looked like Elvis. Berkman, when asked “Fat or Skinny” owned the “Fat” designation.

However, Berkman preferred the term “puma” because he was a “sleek, agile and graceful athlete.” In an interview with Houston radio host Lance Zierlein, after a little prodding, Berkman declared “I am the Big Puma!”

As for Lance Berkman the ballplayer, the closer you look at his numbers, the better they look. So I invite you, even as he has become a first-ballot casualty, to take that closer look.

Cooperstown Cred: Lance Berkman

• Career: 366 HR, 1,234 RBI, .293 BA, .406 OBP, .537 SLG
• Career: 144 OPS+, 52.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 6-time All-Star
• 6 times in the Top 7 of the N.L. MVP Voting
• Member of 2011 World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals
• Career postseason: 9 HR, 41 RBI, .317 BA, .417 OBP, .532 SLG
• .943 career OPS is 24th best in MLB history (minimum 5,000 PA)

(cover photo: San Antonio Express-News)

Lance Berkman: Early Life

William Lance Berkman was born on February 10, 1976, in Waco, Texas. Lance’s father Larry was determined to turn his only son into a baseball player. As soon as Lance was old enough to wear a mitt, father and son would take batting practice and play catch in the back yard. It was Larry who insisted that Lance learn how to switch-hit during his youth. The Berkmans moved to Austin when Lance was six, and Larry hung a tire from a tree in the back yard, instructing his son to take 50 swings a day both righty and lefty.

Despite all of the training and practice, Berkman wasn’t considered a prospect during his high school days. Instead, he enrolled at Rice University in Houston. Berkman hit .385 in three years at Rice and helped the Owls to their first-ever College World Series appearance during his junior year.

Now a real prospect, Berkman his .431 with 41 home runs in his final college campaign. The Houston Astros selected Berkman with the 16th pick in the first round of the 1997 draft.

Houston Astros: 1999-2010

Lance Berkman spent the majority of his career with his home-state Astros. He made his MLB debut in 1999 and became a mostly full-time player in 2000. With future Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell firmly entrenched at first base, Berkman spent the first six seasons of his career in the outfield, playing all three positions (yes, including center field, suitable for an agile Big Puma).

The switch-hitting outfielder emerged as a legitimate star in 2001. Berkman hit an MLB-best 55 doubles with 34 HR and 126 RBI. His slash line (.331 BA/.430 OBP/.620 SLG) put him in the top 6 of all three categories. For this, he was an All-Star for the first time and finished 5th in the MVP voting.

The ’01 Astros won the N.L. Central, giving Fat Elvis his first taste of postseason baseball. As it had been for years with his more esteemed teammates Bagwell and Craig Biggio, Berkman slumped in October, going 2 for 12 (.167 BA) as the Astros were swept by the Atlanta Braves.

Berkman’s numbers actually slipped a bit in 2002 but his 128 RBI led the N.L. and he finished third in the MVP voting behind Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols.

2004: Postseason Star Emerges

After a down year in 2003, Lance Berkman had another big season in 2004, helping the Astros to a second-half surge and Wild Card playoff berth. A super impressive slash line (.316 BA/.450 OBP/.566 SLG) led to a 7th place finish in the MVP vote. His .450 on-base% was 3rd best in the league, behind Bonds’ absurd .609 and Todd Helton‘s .469.

The Astros as a franchise entered the 2004 postseason having never won a series, going 0 for 7. Thanks to Berkman and Carlos Beltran, that changed in ’04. Although Beltran was the big star, hitting .455 with 4 home runs, 9 RBI, and a 1.591 OPS, Berkman was a key contributor as well. Berkman hit a Game 1 home run and posted an overall OPS of 1.071 in the Astros 5-game NLDS win over the Braves.

In the NLCS, Berkman got off to a blistering start, hitting .467 with 3 taters in the first four games before going into a 0 for 9 slump in the final three. The St. Louis Cardinals advanced to the World Series.

2005: The Astros Finally Make the World Series

Two weeks after the Astros lost to the Cardinals in the ’04 NLCS, Lance Berkman tore the ACL in his right knee while playing flag football. Berkman, ever the jokester, cracked that he wasn’t playing “worth a dang” when he got hurt. The injury cost Berkman to miss the first 27 games of the 2005 season. With Bagwell limited to 39 games due to shoulder woes, Berkman moved to first base (a position more suited to his Fat Elvis than Big Puma moniker) when he returned to the Astros on May 6.

Berkman had a mediocre season by his standards but closed strong. In the team’s final 31 games, he hit 11 HR with 27 RBI and a 1.114 OPS. The hot stretch helped Houston to a 20-11 closing record, allowing the Astros to win the Wild Card by just one game.

After years of disappointment, the Astros finally made it to the Fall Classic, beating the Braves in four games in the NLDS and the Redbirds in six games in the NLCS. Again, Berkman’s bat was hot; he hit 2 HR with 8 RBI and a 1.013 OPS in 10 games. In Game 4 of the NLDS, the Astros were trailing the Braves 6-1 in the 8th inning before Berkman hit an opposite-field grand slam to tighten the score to 6-5. The ‘Stros would go on to win the game (and the series) in 18 innings.

In Game 6 of the NLCS, Berkman looked like would emerge the hero when he hit a slicing three-run opposite-field tater off Chris Carpenter to give the Astros a 4-2 lead in the bottom of the 7th. This was the game, however, in which Albert Pujols hit his titanic blast off Brad Lidge to claim the game for the Redbirds. Despite the disappointment, the Astros came back to win Game 7 and advance to the Fall Classic for the first time.

During the World Series, the Big Puma kept hitting (.385 BA, 1.065 OPS) but the rest of the team didn’t, hitting just .185. The Astros were swept in four games by the Chicago White Sox.

2006-2010

After the 2005 World Series loss, the Houston Astros would not return to the postseason for a decade. Lance Berkman continued a yo-yo trend of having a spectacular season followed by an average one (by his standards). In 2006 Berkman was great; he finished 3rd in the MVP vote behind Ryan Howard and Pujols. 2007 was so-so. Then, 2008 was arguably his career-best season, good enough for 5th place in the MVP tally.

In 2009 and 2010, Berkman had two back to back campaigns which were good but not great. In ’10, the Astros star was slumping with a .245 batting average. With the team out of contention, he was traded at the end of July to the New York Yankees, where he served mostly as the team’s designated hitter. Back in the postseason, Berkman hit .313 with a 1.056 OPS for the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees won the ALDS in 3 games against Minnesota before falling in the ALCS in 6 games to the Texas Rangers.

Anyway, Berkman finished the 2010 season with career lows in pretty much every statistical category (excluding his 34-game cup of coffee in 1999). Take a look at how his numbers kept bouncing back and forth from Hall of Fame-caliber to good but not great.

WP Table Builder

2011: Comeback Campaign in St. Louis

Lance Berkman had a last hurrah in 2011. In the offseason, he signed a one-year, $8 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. With Albert Pujols entrenched at first base, the Big Puma wound up in right field, which was not good for his defensive metrics but gave the Redbirds three big bats in the lineup, the others being Prince Albert and left fielder Matt Holliday.

Berkman had a big year, hitting 31 HR with 94 RBI and an OPS+ of 164, a career-best. Berkman’s slash line (.301 BA/.412 OBP/.547 SLG) was superb across the board. He was rewarded with his 6th and final All-Star berth and a 7th place finish in the MVP vote.

As it was with the ’05 Astros, the ’11 Cardinals closed strong, winning 23 of their final 32 games, which was good enough to earn the N.L. Wild Card berth by a single game. In his last 21 games during the regular season, Berkman hit .413 with a 1.047 OPS.

In Game 1 of the NLDS, Berkman continued his October ways by greeting Philadelphia Phillies ace Roy Halladay (the N.L. Cy Young winner) with a 3-run, first-inning home run. Berkman slumped a bit after that, hitting .243 in the balance of the NLDS and the NLCS but his teammates got the job done. The Redbirds won the LDS in a thrilling 5-game series and the LCS in a 6-game contest against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Epic World Series: Rangers v Cardinals

The Cardinals were matched up against the Texas Rangers in the World Series. Berkman’s bat lit up. He hit .389 in the first 5 games. However, the Redbirds entered Game 6 on the brink of elimination, trailing the series 3 games to 2.

Berkman was in the center of the action of Game 6, which was one of the greatest games in the history of the sport. In the bottom of the 1st inning, Berkman hit a two-run home run to give the Cards a 2-1 lead. After reaching on an error to lead off the 4th, Berkman came around to score the tying run. In the 6th, the Cards were down by a run again. Berkman reached on an infield single and again came around to score the tying run.

In the bottom of the 9th, the Rangers held a 7-5 lead, and closer Neftali Feliz was brought into the game with the chance to bring Texas its first-ever World Championship. After an opening out, Pujols doubled. Berkman then walked on four pitches. With two outs and two strikes, third baseman David Freese hit a triple over Nelson Cruz‘s head in right field, allowing Berkman to score the tying run for the third time in the game.

In the top of the 10th, the Rangers took a 9-7 lead on a two-run blast by Josh Hamilton. The Cards scratched back for a run in the bottom of the frame but still trailed 9-8. Berkman was the sixth batter of the inning. With runners on 1st and 2nd and down to his final strike (a 2-2 count), Berkman stroked a run-scoring single to tie the score and send it to the 11th.

Freese famously walked it off with a solo homer to lead off the bottom of the 11th. For the game, Freese was the big star but Berkman the indispensable understudy, going 3 for 5 with 3 RBI and 4 runs scored.

The Redbirds would win the Fall Classic the following night, delivering a fitting end to the Hall of Fame career of their manager Tony La Russa.

2012-2013: Final Campaigns

The World Series title was the pinnacle of Lance Berkman’s career. There would be no more joy in Graceland for Fat Elvis. He played just 32 games for the Cardinals in 2012, limited by two knee surgeries.

Best suited now to become a designated hitter, Berkman signed a free-agent contract with the Rangers for the 2013 season, an irony given how he had broken the big hearts in Texas in 2011. He played just 73 games for the Rangers, hitting .242 with a 92 OPS+. At the age of 37, it was time to retire.

The Hall of Fame Case for and Against Lance Berkman

Let’s start with the “case against” Lance Berkman for Cooperstown. It’s a pretty easy one to make. Thanks to his body breaking down after his 36th birthday, Berkman finished with just 1,905 hits and 366 home runs. As Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe has often noted, both the BBWAA and the Veterans Committee have been loath to elect any players with fewer than 2,000 in recent decades. The last of the “under 2,000 hit club” was Larry Doby, whose career ended in 1959.

Besides the low hit total, Berkman’s 366 taters are low for a player who didn’t occupy a premium defensive position. Among first sackers, corner outfielders or DH’s who debuted in 1946 or later, the only Hall of Famers with fewer than Berkman’s 366 long balls are Rickey Henderson, Roberto Clemente, Paul Molitor, Tim Raines, Lou Brock, Tony Gwynn, and Rod Carew. All of those players but Raines got at least 3,000 hits while Raines stole 808 bases.

The back of Berkman’s baseball card is also lacking bold type. Despite his excellent hitting, he only has three instances of leading the league in anything. His 128 RBI were the most in the N.L. in 2002. In 2001 and 2008, he led the league in doubles. That’s it. Again, it’s a small number for a player with an offense-only Hall of Fame case.

On the sabermetric side, using Jaffe’s JAWS system, Berkman’s 45.7 ranks just 15th highest on the 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. His career WAR of 52.1 is just 18th best. Remember, BBWAA voters are limited to 10 selections on their ballots. With Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens still hanging around on the ballot, for now, seven years, they’re sucking away a lot of votes from the players on the fringe of Hall of Fame worthiness.

Ballot Crunch Casualty?

Before getting to the “case in favor,” I will stipulate right now that Berkman was not one of the top 10 candidates on the 2019 ballot and virtually every writer agreed. Only 5 out of the 425 ballots cast had the Big Puma’s name on it.

Any player who gets less than 5% of the vote is excluded from future consideration by the BBWAA. This is what happened to Johan Santana in 2018, to Jorge Posada in 2017, to Jim Edmonds in 2016, to Carlos Delgado in 2015, and Kenny Lofton in 2013.

The Case in Favor of Lance Berkman for Cooperstown

OK, I still need to give some reasons why Lance Berkman deserves a future Veterans Committee look for the Hall of Fame beside his great nicknames. So, let’s first start by looking at silver linings in some of the negatives.

First of all, the hit problem, as in his career total of 1,905. That’s not great but hardly unprecedented. There are 35 current Hall of Famers with fewer than 2,000 knocks, including 10 from the ranks of corner outfielders and first basemen. Yes, they’re all from the first half of the 20th century or the 19th century.

However, what differentiates Berkman from the others is that he also drew 1,201 walks, 190 more than the best total for the “under 2,000 hit” club. Ralph Kiner drew 1,011 bases on balls.

If you add in his walks and times getting hit by a pitch, Berkman reached base 3,172 times in his 15-year career. There are 65, count ’em, 65 Hall of Fame position players with fewer. Included in that number are Johnny Mize, Hank Greenberg, Joe Medwick, Kiner, and Orlando Cepeda.

As for the home runs, his 366 are below but in range of Kiner (369), Cepeda (379), Tony Perez (379), and Jim Rice (382). Kiner led the majors in home runs for six straight seasons, so his name is not relevant to the discussion.

Regarding Berkman’s WAR problem, he does get dinged for below-average fielding, base running, and for occupying less important positions on the defensive spectrum.

So far, to be fair, the Berkman case I’ve presented is still not especially compelling. He’s on the bottom end of both benchmark numbers. A more exciting case is needed.

How Good a Hitter was Lance Berkman?

Lance Berkman’s Hall of Fame case is obviously not going to be built on longevity or accumulated counting stats. It must be built on his extremely impressive rate stats. His career slash line (.293 BA/.406 OBP/.537 SLG) translates to an adjusted 144 OPS+, which is 44% above league average.

So, what is the significance of a 144 OPS+? The significance is that, out of the 437 players in MLB history to accumulate at least 7,000 plate appearances, his 144 is tied for the 35th best ever. There only seven hitters with a higher OPS+ who are not in the Hall of Fame. Five are either PED linked (Bonds, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez) or still active (Pujols, Miguel Cabrera). The others are Edgar Martinez (who made the Hall next month) and Dick Allen, who is a cause célèbre in the sabermetric community due to his 156 OPS+.

What is also interesting is that, if you look at all of the switch-hitters in the history of baseball, Berkman’s OPS+ is the third-best ever, behind only Mickey Mantle and 19th-century legend Roger Connor.

Berkman’s Peak Years

When making a Hall of Fame case and comparing a player to his peers, it’s easiest to do when there is a clearly defined peak period of excellence. For Berkman, that peak was from 2001 to 2008, when he earned five All-Star berths, finishing in the top 7 of the MVP voting in all of those years.

Here is how Berkman compares statistically to the best position players in the game:

Two statistics you might not be familiar with:

RC = Runs Created (an advanced formula on Baseball-Reference).

RBat = the batting component that goes into WAR. RBat doesn’t adjust for positions and doesn’t include base-running. It’s for hitting only.

WP Table Builder

The names you’ll notice permeating these lists of players above Berkman are Bonds, Pujols, Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez. Three of the four are PED-linked and the fourth (Pujols) is an all-time great.

What makes Berkman’s production more impressive is to extend his “peak” years to 11, which includes 2010-2012. Bonds’ career ended after 2007 so his name does not appear on this chart.

WP Table Builder

No matter how you slice or dice this, Lance Berkman was one of the five or six best hitters in all of baseball for an 11-year period of time. This is a Hall of Fame list.

Postseason Hero

As we saw earlier, Lance Berkman was a postseason stud, hitting .317 with a .949 OPS while playing an indispensable role in the Cardinals’ World Series title run of 2011. Where does Berkman rank among the stars of October?

A useful tool to measure postseason performance is WPA (Win Probability Added). While you can see the Glossary for details, I’ll provide the short version here.

Every play in baseball changes the likelihood that a team will win or lose. A rate stat like OPS (or its era-and-park-adjusted version OPS+) simply measures aspects of hitting that lead to runs. WPA puts context into the runs produced. If you get a hit, draw a walk, or hit a home run, the consequences are dependent on the game situation.

An example: Albert Pujols went 5 for 6 with 3 home runs and 6 RBI in Game 3 of the 2011 World Series. The last two of those home runs, however, came when the score was 12-6 in the 7th and 15-7 in the 9th. They were cool and dramatic but didn’t alter the outcome of the game. Not much Win Probability Added there. On the other hand, when he hit his three-run moon shot in Houston (Game 6 of the 2005 NLCS), that turned victory into defeat. Lots of Win Probability credit.

Anyway, these are the top three postseason hitters ever in terms of Win Probability Added:

1. David Ortiz (3.2)
2. Albert Pujols (2.9)
3. Lance Berkman (2.7)

I don’t have a system for this yet but, if I were to coin a term “Rings Above Replacement,” Berkman definitely has one for what he did in 2011.

I’m a huge believer that, in the Wild Card era, postseason performance should count for much more than simply “bonus points.” If for the sake of argument, you took a player’s postseason WPA and multiplied it by 5, that would add 13.5 “points” to Berkman’s career record. If you call his career “record” his 52.1 WAR, by adding 13.5 to that number, now you have 65.6, a much more attractive Hall of Fame number.

Anyway, I’m just throwing stuff out there right now. Regardless of how you quantify it, I do believe that the Big Puma’s crucial role in the Cardinals’ 2011 title run should be given considerable weight when evaluating his Cooperstown case.

The Minute Maid Factor

Some have noted that Lance Berkman benefited from playing at Minute Maid Park, a highly favorable hitters park. While it’s unquestionably true that Minute Maid favors batsmen, the switch-hitting Berkman didn’t really benefit from it.

Although he grew up preferring to hit right-handed, as a Major League player, Berkman was much more proficient from the left side. Remember that one of Minute Maid’s most hitter-friendly attributes is the Crawford Boxes in left field.

These are Berkman’s home-road and left-right splits:

WP Table Builder

As a left-handed batter, Berkman was a spray hitter, who hit .394 with 74 home runs going to left field. As a right-handed batter, he hit just .258 with 2 HR and a .599 OPS when going to the opposite field.

Comparing Lance Berkman and Todd Helton

Because they were both first-time candidates on the BBWAA ballot and because they both played first base, it’s germane to compare Lance Berkman with Todd Helton. Both were first-round draft picks after distinguished college careers and both are closely identified with one franchise (Helton spent his entire career with the Colorado Rockies).

The biggest difference is that Helton was an excellent defensive first baseman, the metrics of which give him a superior WAR (61.2 to 52.1).

The WAR difference mattered. Helton got 16.5% of the vote (compared to Berkman’s 1.2%); he’ll be back on the much less stacked 2020 ballot.

How different are the two players’ resumes to the extent that one got 13 times as many votes as the other? Let’s look at the numbers:

WP Table Builder

On the surface, it seems like a pretty easy call. Helton leads Berkman in every category except for OPS+. Helton also has the legitimate advantage of having played in more games: 1,639 more plate appearances are about 3 extra seasons. What is impressive for Berkman, however, is that the RBat component of WAR puts him nearly as Helton’s equal, despite so many fewer times at the plate.

Now, you knew this was coming, Helton did have the benefit of playing half of his games at Coors Field. There is nothing else quite like it in terms of the positive impact it has on the offensive side of the game.

Home/Road Splits

So, to start, here are Berkman’s and Helton’s career statistics in home and road games:

WP Table Builder

Besides the obvious massive advantage that Helton has in his home game numbers and Berkman’s significant road game edge, there’s something else that caught my eye. Notice that Helton had 969 more plate appearances than Berkman in home games but only 670 more in road games. This is an extra edge that Coors Field players get every year. They get more at bats per game because the lineup circles back more often due to all the offense.

What speaks well to Berkman here is that he had significantly more home runs, RBI, and runs scored in his road games despite a full season less in plate appearances.

Trading Places

One of my favorite tools on Baseball Reference is called “neutralized statistics.” What this tool does is put a player’s actual statistics and extrapolates them into different circumstances, both in terms of ballparks and the overall friendliness of the era towards pitching or hitting.

By OPS, 7 of the 10 most hitting-friendly environments in baseball history were in Coors Field between 1995 and 2004.

So, this tool allows us to visualize a parallel universe. In this case, we’ll look at what Lance Berkman might have done if he spent his entire career in Colorado and what Todd Helton might have done in Houston, New York, St. Louis, and Texas.

WP Table Builder

Having already seen that Berkman’s slash line was in the range of Helton’s with their actual statistics and having seen Berkman’s superior road numbers, this hypothetical should not come as a shock but it is still striking to see.

The conclusion is obvious: Lance Berkman was a better hitter than Todd Helton.

Berkman also made one more All-Star team and had a higher amount of MVP votes during their respective careers.

Conclusion

Now that we have demonstrated that Lance Berkman was a better hitter than Todd Helton and that Helton was a better fielder (you didn’t need me to tell you that), what does that mean about the Hall of Fame?

Both were on the ballot for the first time, besides the obvious fact that Helton will be on future BBWAA ballots and Berkman can only hope for a favorable Veterans Committee vote in the distant future.

Helton has a higher WAR (61.2 to 52.1) on Baseball-Reference because he played longer and was better defensively. On Fan Graphs, Berkman’s WAR is better (56.0 to 55.0) due to significantly superior offensive calculations. Berkman’s OPS+ was higher (144 to 133). Berkman won a World Series title, one that his team would not have captured without him.

They were both great players. Personally, I would be happy to see both in the Hall of Fame eventually.

Needless to say, this isn’t just about Helton and Berkman. I spent a lot of time on the topic because I found it interesting and the most apt comparison to make. Obviously, it’s really about the other 15 to 16 qualified players on the recent Hall of Fame ballot and a limit on 10 that any writer can vote for.

With so many qualified players, Fat Elvis never had a chance.

Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.