Why Keith Hernandez Belongs in the Hall of Fame

Keith Hernandez, first baseman for the St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, and (briefly) the Cleveland Indians, was not a prototypical first sacker. Hernandez wasn’t a prolific home run hitter or RBI man. Instead, he was a solid offensive producer and quite possibly the best defensive first baseman in the history of baseball.

To young fans, Hernandez today may be best known for his work on SNY as an analyst for Mets games with Gary Cohen and Ron Darling. For non-baseball fans who watched television in the 1990s, he’s best known as one of Elaine’s boyfriends who becomes Jerry’s pal on the hit show Seinfeld. The real-life Jerry Seinfeld is a huge Mets fan and I have no doubt he shares my view that Keith Hernandez deserves a spot in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.

Five years after he retired (at the end of the 1990 season), Hernandez was on the BBWAA ballot (Baseball Writers Association of America) for the first time. He got just 5.1% of the vote in an election that requires 75% approval to be granted a plaque in Cooperstown, New York. Hernandez remained on the ballot for eight more years but never got more than 10.8%.

This afternoon, the Mets retired Hernandez’s uniform number (#17). He became just the sixth individual in the 60-year history of the Mets to have his jersey retired, joining Casey Stengel (#37), Gil Hodges (#14), Tom Seaver (#41), Jerry Koosman (#36), and Mike Piazza (#31). Last December, Hodges, the longtime first baseman for the Brooklyn Dodgers and manager of the Miracle Mets of 1969, was posthumously elected to the Hall of Fame. This piece will make the case for why Hernandez also deserves a plaque in Cooperstown.

The Hall of Fame case for Keith Hernandez starts with his brilliant glove-work at first base. However, as we’ll see, he was an underrated performer as an offensive player. He was also the premier first baseman in his league (the National League) while he was playing. Add to that the key role he played on two World Series champions, and you have the foundation of a Cooperstown resume.

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Cooperstown Cred: Keith Hernandez (1B)

• St. Louis Cardinals (1974-83), New York Mets (1983-89), Cleveland Indians (1990)
• Career: .296 BA, .384 OBP, 162 HR, 1,071 RBI, 2,182 Hits
• Career: 128 OPS+, 60.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 11-time Gold Glove Award Winner (most ever for first basemen)
• 1979 N.L. co-MVP with Willie Stargell
• 3 top 10’s in MVP voting from 1984-86
• 5-time All-Star
• Member of 1982 and 1986 World Championship teams (Cardinals & Mets)

(cover photo: Newsday/J. Conrad Williams)

This is an update of a piece originally published in October 2018, on Hernandez’s 65th birthday. It has been updated with the news of the Mets retiring his uniform number.

Career Highlights

St. Louis Cardinals (1974-1983)

Keith Hernandez was born on October 20, 1953, in San Francisco and grew up a bit south of the City by the Bay, in San Bruno. Keith and his older brother Gary learned how to play baseball from their father John Hernandez, who was once a top prospect for the Brooklyn Dodgers. Besides being his older brother, Gary was (and still is) Keith’s best friend. Although Hernandez was nicknamed “Mex” during his playing days, he never considered himself an “official” Hispanic player (his words, from his 1985 book If at First). Keith’s father’s parents came to the U.S. from Spain early in the 20th century; his mother’s family is Scottish, from South Texas.

At the age of 17, Keith was drafted in the 42nd round of the 1971 player draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. Playing for the AAA Tulsa Oilers (managed by former Cardinals standout Ken Boyer), the left-hand hitting Hernandez established himself as a top prospect in 1974, hitting .351 with a .555 slugging percentage in 102 games. Hernandez’s stellar performance earned him a promotion to the big club; he made his Major League Baseball debut in his hometown San Francisco on August 20, 1974, a couple of months shy of his 21st birthday. Hernandez hit .294 in 41 plate appearances.

Manager Red Schoendienst (a former Cardinals star and Hall of Famer) installed Hernandez as the Redbirds’ starting first baseman to begin the 1975 campaign. However, after 42 games, Hernandez’s woeful offensive production (.203 BA/.275 OBP/.305 SLG with just 12 RBI) earned him a trip back to Tulsa. Part of the problem was that hitting coach Harry “The Hat” Walker was teaching Hernandez to almost exclusively hit the ball to the opposite field, contrary to the all-fields approach drilled into Keith by his father. Reunited in Tulsa with Boyer, who refocused Keith’s batting approach, the 21-year-old first baseman rediscovered his hitting stroke in AAA (.330/.440/.531). He continued his hot hitting when brought back to St. Louis in September; he hit .350 with 2 HR and 8 RBI in 65 plate appearances.

Hernandez became the Redbirds’ primary first baseman in 1976. Still only 22 years old, Keith started 97 games but had to share the position with veterans Ron Fairly, Reggie Smith (before a mid-season trade to the Dodgers), and Hall of Famer Ted Simmons (when he wasn’t catching). In 129 games (428 plate appearances), Hernandez hit .289 with 7 HR and 46 RBI. Despite the relatively limited playing time, Hernandez established himself as a premier defensive player by leading the National League with 107 assists.

In 1977, playing for new manager Vern Rapp, there was no more sharing, although Keith had to earn the job all over again in competition with journeyman Roger Freed, who had been the Sporting News Minor League Player of the Year in ’76 and had played for Rapp in the past. Hernandez was worried that he would lose the job to Freed if he got off another poor start to the season. Luckily, Hernandez was scorching in April, hitting .323 with 4 HR and 16 RBI. The sweet-swinging lefty kept the job, played in 161 games (starting 150), and finished the season with a solid offensive performance, slashing .291/.379/.459 with 15 home runs while driving in 91 and scoring 90.

Hernandez got off to a good start in 1978 (he was hitting .340 as of May 7th) but slumped the rest of the year (hitting .235 thereafter). In his book If at First (published in 1986), Keith mused that if Rapp had remained the Cardinals manager, he might have been benched during the slump. But Rapp was fired in late April, replaced by Boyer and Boyer stuck with Mex at first. Overall Hernandez finished with a pedestrian slash line of .255/.351/.389, but he established himself as one of the best defensive first basemen in the game, winning the first of his 11 consecutive Gold Glove Awards.

Breakout Season: 1979

Keith Hernandez had his breakout campaign in 1979. He blew past the .300 batting mark for the first time, leading the majors with a .344 BA and 48 doubles. An All-Star for the first time, he also established career highs with a .417 on-base% and .513 slugging%. Hernandez also had career bests in hits (210), RBI (105), and Runs (116). Using statistics that were decades from being invented, his WAR (7.6) and OPS+ (151) were also the best of his 17-year career.

For his brilliant offensive campaign (and for winning his second Gold Glove), Keith was the co-MVP of the National League, sharing the honor with Willie Stargell. In what was Hall of Famer Lou Brock’s final season, the Cardinals finished in 3rd place in the East, 12 games behind Stargell and the Pittsburgh Pirates in the N.L. East.

If you look closely at the numbers, Hernandez had a clearly superior campaign, but the 39-year-old Stargell had the intangible of being the team leader (“Pops”) of the “We Are Family” Pirates, who won the division and, eventually, the World Series.

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Stargell got 10 first-place votes compared to just 4 for Hernandez and Dave Winfield, but Hernandez managed to tie Stargell in the overall voting by earning 1st through 5th place votes from all 24 writers while there were four writers who did not even put Stargell in the top 10. When he learned that he had tied Stargell for the honor, Hernandez was humble and gracious.

“Willie was the sentimental favorite. He was the inspirational man for the pennant-winners (ultimately world champions) with a lot of intangibles going for him, and he was deserving… While I think the MVP most of the time should be on the winning team, I think we’re both deserving. Willie is a great man and I have a lot of respect for him. When I think about class people, Lou Brock and Stargell are the first names that come to mind.”

— Keith Hernandez (St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 11/14/79)

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Hernandez followed up his co-MVP campaign with another excellent season in 1980. He slashed .321/.408/.494 and hit 16 home runs with 99 RBI. His .408 OBP led the N.L., as did 111 runs scored. He finished 11th in the MVP vote and was the first Silver Slugger winner in the N.L. at first base.

In the strike-shortened 1981 season, Hernandez slashed .306/.401/.463 to go with 8 HR and 48 RBI. With a 59-43 (.578) record, the Cardinals had the best record in the N.L. East. Unfortunately, due to the split-season format, the Redbirds missed out on the 8-team playoffs because they finished 2nd in both the first and second halves of the season. In the second half of the season, the Cards finished just a half-game behind the Montreal Expos thanks to actually playing one fewer game.

World Champions in 1982

The Cardinals were outsiders for the first 8 years of Keith Hernandez’s career come playoff time. In 1982, the Redbirds added multiple key players to an already-solid squad. Manager Whitey Herzog (who doubled as the club’s GM until early ’82) made two brilliant trades, acquiring future Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith to play shortstop and emerging star Lonnie Smith for left field.

After three straight seasons with a .300 BA and .400 OBP, Hernandez barely fell shy of those marks. He still hit .299 and posted a .397 OBP (with a .413 SLG), all while driving in 94 runs.

The Redbirds swept the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS before taking on the Milwaukee Brewers in the Fall Classic. St. Louis prevailed in 7 games, with Hernandez playing a starring role in the final three tilts. In Games 5-thru-7, Keith hit .583 with a 1.667 OPS and 8 RBI.

In the decisive Game 7, the Cards were trailing 3-1 in the bottom of the 6th inning. With one out and the bases loaded, Hernandez delivered a game-tying two-run single, the key blow in what would ultimately be the Redbirds’ 6-3 win and World Championship.

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Trade to New York

Despite being a perennial Gold Glover and top-flight offensive performer, all was not wonderful in the life of Keith Hernandez in his final years in St. Louis. He had been abusing cocaine since 1980 and had developed a lackadaisical attitude that irritated his manager, the future Hall of Famer Herzog. But it was the owner (Gussie Busch) who especially soured on Hernandez because of his cocaine use, marking the inevitable end of Keith’s time in St. Louis.

After getting off to a relatively slow start (.284/.352/.431), Hernandez was traded in June 1983 to the New York Mets in exchange for pitchers Neil Allen and Rick Ownbey, a deal that would be infamously terrible for the Cardinals and fantastic for the Mets.

Hernandez stopped using cocaine shortly before the trade, and the move to Flushing revitalized Keith’s career, although the 29-year-old star didn’t see it that way at the time. The Mets had finished 5th or 6th in the N.L. East for 6 straight years, and Hernandez felt he had gone “to baseball hell.”

Overall in 1983, Hernandez slashed .297/.396/.433, hitting 12 home runs with 63 RBI. Thanks to his consistently superb defense, it was a solid season, but not of the quality of his prime years from 1979-81.

Hernandez was eligible to be a free agent after the 1984 season. Thus, he had the power to ask for trade (so that the Mets could get value in return). Hernandez assumed that he would be doing precisely that. However, an unlikely threesome successfully convinced the 30-year-old star that better things were coming in New York. General Manager Frank Cashen told him about the terrific young players in the team’s minor league system, and Keith’s father echoed that sentiment. John Hernandez, the quintessential fan who, as a former prospect, had many friends who were scouts, knew all about much more than Darryl Strawberry, the 1983 Rookie of the Year. He told Keith about prospects such as Ron Darling, Lenny Dykstra, and, in particular, Dwight Gooden.

At the same time, 39-year-old veteran Rusty Staub, now a bench player, pitched him on the joys of New York City.

“Rusty indoctrinated me to the city, introduced me around to different walks of life, different people, made sure I fully absorbed and was a part of the culture of the city and the arts. He allowed me to meet people and go to special events. As a Met I had access to tickets to Broadway plays that were impossible to get in. He showed me everything New York has to offer. And I was hooked.”

— Keith Hernandez (in Mike Vaccaro’s profile, New York Post, 7/7/22)

Seeing the possibilities of what was to come, instead of asking for that trade, Hernandez signed a five-year contract extension to his existing contract that would keep him in New York through 1989. In the meantime, Cashen promoted the franchise’s AAA manager (Davey Johnson) to the job with the big club, a move that would add an innovative mindset to the emerging squad.

The 30-year-old Hernandez, the unquestioned leader on the ’84 Mets, helped lead the team to 90 wins and a 2nd place finish in the N.L. East. Hernandez hit .311 with a .409 OBP, .449 SLG, 15 HR, and 94 RBI. He finished second to Ryne Sandberg in the MVP vote.

One of those young players John Hernandez had been following, the 19-year-old Gooden, joined the Mets in 1984 and finished 2nd in the Cy Young vote. The ’84 Mets also welcomed two other rookie starting pitchers, Darling and Sid Fernandez.

In the 1984-85 offseason, Cashen added another veteran presence to his young squad, acquiring future Hall of Fame catcher Gary Carter from the Montreal Expos. With second-year phenom Gooden authoring one of the greatest pitching seasons of all time (24-4, 1.53 ERA), the Mets won 98 games but fell three games shy of Keith’s old team in St. Louis.

Now 31, Hernandez slashed .309/.384/.430, with 10 HR and 91 RBI, his 6th season with at least 90 ribbies. Keith finished 8th in the MVP voting, behind the winner Willie McGee and his teammates Gooden and Carter.

World Champions in 1986

Before the season even began, everyone in baseball expected the 1986 New York Mets to win the World Series and the team did not disappoint, starting off by winning 108 games in the regular season.

Hernandez hit .310 (his sixth time above the .300 mark) while leading the N.L. with 94 walks, leading to a .413 OBP. He added 13 HR with 83 RBI (posting a .446 SLG). Using advanced metrics, Keith’s 140 OPS+ put him 40% above league average as a batsman; this was the 5th full season in which he posted a 140 OPS+ or higher. Hernandez finished 4th in the N.L. MVP vote, behind Mike Schmidt, Glenn Davis, and Carter. An All-Star for the 4th time, Hernandez was the N.L.’s starting first sacker for the first time in his career.

With a 6-game series win in the NLCS and a 7-game win in the World Series, the ’86 Mets prevailed in two of the greatest postseason series of all time.

In the NLCS, against the Houston Astros, the Mets won 3 of the first 5 games but considered Game 6 (at the Houston Astrodome) a must-win. This was because Mike Scott was looming for Game 7 and Scott, with his devastating splitter, had gotten into the Mets’ collective heads. In the Astros’ two wins of the series (Games 1 and 4), Scott pitched two complete games, giving up just one run.

In New York’s famous 16-inning Game 6 win against the Houston Astros, Mex went just 1 for 7. The one hit, however, was indispensable. It was an RBI double off Bob Knepper in the top of the 9th inning, helping the Mets erase a 3-0 deficit. The story of Hernandez’s clutch 9th-inning double is a great one. Keith actually called his brother Gary during the game from the phone in the clubhouse.

“I got him on the line looking for his magic, his positive vibe. Gary remembers being home watching the game with two of his golfing buddies and being totally shocked, stunned, flabbergasted, whatever you want to call it, at my calling him during the game. I had never done this before with him. I told him, I’m going to hit in the ninth, Knepper is tough, how am I swinging? Gary’s response was that Knepper is getting tired. He’s starting to get the ball up. He’s going to give you a pitch to hit. Get on top of it and drive it into the alley. You look great! Get up there and rip him. That was all that I needed to hear. I rushed back down that long staircase, getting back in the dugout just in time to take the field with my teammates for the bottom of the eighth.”

— Keith Hernandez (in SNY.tv, 5/5/20)

Hernandez’s RBI double was a part of a 3-run rally that sent the game into extra innings. Later, in the bottom of the 16th, with reliever Jesse Orosco running on fumes, Hernandez delivered a pep talk to the Mets’ pitcher. Accounts vary as to the exact words that were used but Hernandez said something to the effect of “if you throw him (Kevin Bass) another fastball, we’re gonna fight.”

Another account of this story has it that Hernandez told Carter that they were going to fight if he called for another fastball. Either way, Orosco fanned Bass with the tying run on 2nd base to preserve a 7-6 win and send the Mets to the Fall Classic.

In the famous World Series against the Boston Red Sox, Hernandez saved his most momentous performance for the bottom of the 6th inning in Game 7. With the Mets trailing 3-0 and the bases loaded, Keith delivered a two-run single off Bruce Hurst to pull the Mets to within a run. The Mets would go on to win 8-5, clinching the franchise’s first championship since the miracle season of 1969.

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Final Years (1987-1990)

The 1987 season represented the beginning of the decline phase in the career of Keith Hernandez. Although he hit a career-high 18 home runs (with 89 RBI), Keith’s slash line sagged (.290/.377/.436), leading to an OPS+ of 120, his lowest since 1978. Likewise, his WAR (3.4) was still solid but well below the average of 5.7 that he had established in the previous eight seasons.

The team, ravaged by injuries to its starting rotation (and the cocaine rehabilitation of Gooden), won 92 games, three fewer than the Cardinals.

Keith’s decline continued in 1988, with his season curtailed by injury. After averaging 156.5 games per year in the previous non-strike campaigns, Mex was limited to 95 games played in ’88. His .276 BA and .333 OBP were far below his career standards. He did hit with some power, however; he hit 11 HR with 55 RBI, slugging .417, leading to another 120 OPS+.

Still, the ’88 Mets were a 100-win team, led by Strawberry, left fielder Kevin McReynolds, and 20-game winner David Cone. New York was heavily favored in the NLCS against Tommy Lasorda’s Los Angeles Dodgers, who were led by their new left fielder (MVP Kirk Gibson) and the brilliant Orel Hershiser, who would win the Cy Young Award.

Hershiser was the 1988 version of Mike Scott, and he finished the season with a scoreless streak of 59.1 innings, an MLB record. If the Dodgers were to have any chance in this series, the logical reasoning went, Hershiser would have to win three games. In Game 1, it looked like he was on his way to doing precisely that, heading into the top of the 9th with a 2-0 lead. Strawberry, however, stopped Orel’s overall streak at 67.2 innings when he stroked an RBI double. The Mets went on to win on a two-run double by Gary Carter off reliever Jay Howell.

The Dodgers unexpectedly won Game 2, battering Cone for 5 runs. Hernandez went 2 for 3 with a home run and 3 RBI in the losing effort. Back at Shea Stadium for Game 3, the Mets won 8-4, beating the Dodgers in another Hershiser start (he gave up 3 runs, 1 ER in 7 innings). The Mets seemed to be cruising to a Game 4 win, with Gooden on the mound and a 4-2 lead after 8 innings. However, Mike Scioscia’s famous two-run blast off Gooden sent the game to extra innings; the Dodgers went on to win 5-4 in 12 innings.

The Dodgers would go on to win the series in 7 games (with Hershiser tossing a Game 7 shutout) and, eventually, the World Series over the Oakland Athletics. Hernandez, in his final postseason outing, slashed .269/.406/.385.

A broken kneecap limited Keith Hernandez to just 75 games in 1989 and his performance was worse than mediocre when he was on the diamond (.233 BA, just 19 RBI).

The Mets decided not to re-sign their star first baseman. Instead, Hernandez signed a two-year deal with the Cleveland Indians. A recurring calf injury, however, limited him to just 43 games in 1990 (in which he hit a woeful .200).

After back surgery the following spring due to a bulging disk, Keith Hernandez never played again.

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The Hall of Fame Case for Keith Hernandez

Before making the Cooperstown case for Keith Hernandez, let me briefly cite the obvious reasons why he never got more than 11% of the BBWAA vote in 9 tries on the Hall of Fame ballot (from 1996-2004).

The Case Against

Let’s be honest: Keith Hernandez’s career totals of 162 home runs, 1,071 RBI, and 2,182 hits are not sexy numbers for a Hall of Fame candidate as a first baseman.

Among Hall of Fame first basemen who made their MLB debuts in 1925 or later, the lowest total in those key statistical categories belongs to Hank Greenberg (331 HR, 1,274 RBI, 1,628 Hits). Greenberg’s power totals are superior to Hernandez’s despite the fact that he missed 3 1/2 seasons while serving in the Air Force in World War II.

Simply put, for first basemen in the last 80 or so years, the Hall of Fame has clearly only been open to power hitters. As a non-power hitter, it certainly would have helped Hernandez to accumulate more hits. His total of 2,182 is more than 56 non-Negro Leagues enshrined Hall of Famers but almost all either hit for much greater power or played positions in the middle of the infield.

This is a minor point compared to the “counting stats,” but it would have helped Hernandez if he had finished his career as a .300 hitter. That was his career batting average after the 1988 season; unfortunately, his injury-plagued campaigns of 1989 and ’90 dropped his career BA to .296.

Because he walked so much, Hernandez only had one season in which he topped 200 hits. Only once did he top 100 RBI. The lack of season-to-season black-type hurts his Hall of Fame case as well.

Hernandez’s admitted cocaine abuse early in his career probably didn’t help either.

Best Defensive First Baseman Ever?

The Hall of Fame case for Keith Hernandez starts with this question: is Hernandez the best defensive first baseman ever to play the game? This is a hard question to answer definitively, but I think the answer is “yes.”

I grew up in New York City as a Mets fan. From 1985-88, I went to about 50 games per season at Shea Stadium. Most often, I sat in the upper deck, behind home plate, with a good panoramic view of the field. Watching Hernandez play first base in the top of each inning and then watching the Mets’ opponent man the position was like watching a different game.

Hernandez was a virtuoso. He was fearless in charging towards home plate to cut down the bunting game. Keith would get so close to the plate that he would play bunts down the third-base line as well as the first-base line.

Whether on sacrifice bunt attempts or ground balls to the right side of the infield, Hernandez had an uncanny ability to instantly assess the chances of nailing the lead runner, whether by force or tag. Here is how Hernandez described his excellence at gunning down the lead runner in a sacrifice situation:

“It’s true that I’m the best at this play, a throwback to my sprintout pass days as a high school quarterback. Being left-handed is a great advantage here, because I scoop and throw in one motion. Also, I come down the line farther than the other first baseman and this might intimidate some batters, who know they have to bunt perfectly, right down the third-base line, or I’ll throw out the runner at second. The danger is that the batter will hit away and ram one down my throat. I’ve never been hit, however, or even close to it.”

— Keith Hernandez (If at First, 1986)

Hernandez wrote those words in 1985 (the book was published in 1986). Having watched or listened to virtually every Mets game in the years since I’m quite certain that Keith never got nailed by a batter unexpectedly swinging away in this situation.

This famous 3-5-4 double play from 1986 (yes, that’s Gary Carter playing 3rd base) is a quintessential example of the unique excellence Hernandez had in the field.

If Hernandez had been a right-handed thrower instead of a lefty, he could easily have played second or third base.

Citing his brilliant defense, Hernandez has two very prominent advocates in the media landscape, albeit two advocates who are unable to vote on the Hall of Fame. Those advocates are the 2018 Frick Award Winner (Bob Costas) and MLB Network’s Brian Kenny.

Here’s how Kenny eloquently described Keith’s fielding prowess in his thought-provoking book, “Ahead of the Curve“:

“First base is not normally a vital defensive position. Hernandez, though, was a transformational player. He turned first base defense into a weapon few teams in the history of the game have ever even approximated. Being the best ever at anything in the field should count for a lot in a Hall of Fame case…

I often will rail at the phrase ‘eye test’ often used by these writers, but there is value in watching one game at a time, pitch by pitch. Numbers are an abstraction. They represent a physical act on the field. But when Keith Hernandez pegs a lead runner at third to snuff out a rally, it goes into the books as a single assist. It may have changed the game, but it’s an afterthought in the box score.

Unfortunately, the sportswriters of the ’80s missed a hell of a game… Stuck in a 1970s mind-set of what a Hall of Fame first baseman should be, they forfeited the one advantage they had over someone looking at a page in The Baseball Encyclopedia: being at the park to see the nuances of his game.”

— Brian Kenny, “Ahead of the Curve” (2016)

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The Defensive Metrics

Until we start voting for currently active players (part of the Statcast generation), I will always be highly skeptical about defensive metrics. It’s especially difficult to quantify defensive play at first base. Still, by the eye test of many observers including yours truly, Keith Hernandez was an all-time great defensive player at the position. It helps that the defensive metrics back it up.

By “Total Zone Runs” (available on both Baseball-Reference and Fan Graphs), Hernandez is #1 all-time for first basemen.

Assists can sometimes be misleading for a first baseman because many assists are a choice (take the ball to the bag yourself or toss it to the pitcher). As an example, Bill Buckner was hobbled by bad knees in 1986 but still led the American League in assists that year.

What made Hernandez special, however, using traditional defensive statistics, is that he ranked near the top of both assists and putouts. In 10 different seasons, he was in the top 3 in the N.L. in both assists and putouts. He led the league in putouts 4 times, led the league in assists 5 times, and led the league in double plays turned 6 times.

Comparison to Don Mattingly

On the other side of New York City, Don Mattingly was routinely winning Gold Gloves for the Yankees. Mattingly won 9 Gold Gloves of his own but he was not the same caliber defensive player as Keith Hernandez.

Where Donnie Baseball excelled is that he rarely made a mistake. He led the American League in fielding percentage 7 times. Hernandez’s ultra-aggressive style led to some errors. Still, in the grand scheme of things, Keith’s .994 career fielding % is just two points less than Mattingly’s .996.

Where the Yankee captain falls short defensively is in all of the other statistics, both traditional and sabermetric. Only 3 times in his career did Mattingly finish in the top 5 in the A.L. in assists. Using Total Zone runs, Mattingly is 30th best of all time (compared to Hernandez’s rank at the top).

Because he was one of the game’s greatest hitters for a four-year period, Mattingly got much more respect from the Hall of Fame voters than Hernandez ever did. Still, Donnie Baseball also fell far short, maxing out at 28% of the vote in his first year of eligibility.

As it was with Hernandez, Donnie Baseball’s career was also cut short due to injury. Mattingly was finished after his age 34 season.

Moving on from the field to the batters’ box, you might be surprised to see that, in the totality of their careers, Keith Hernandez’s offensive numbers are right in line with Don Mattingly’s.

Hernandez v Mattingly by the Numbers

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It’s true that Mattingly’s HR, RBI, and BA (the three staples of traditional offensive statistics) are better but Hernandez’s on-base ability puts his adjusted OPS+ a point ahead.

In addition, Keith’s WAR is significantly better because of his vastly superior defensive statistics. However, if you go just by offense, Hernandez’s career offensive WAR (oWAR) is 46.3, higher than Mattingly’s (39.7). This is partially (but not wholly) attributable to Mex logging 833 more career plate appearances, the equivalent to about 1 1/2 extra years.

Anyway, this comparison serves as a lead-in to what will surprise many readers, that Hernandez was a much better offensive player than one may remember.

Incidentally, Mattingly, now the manager of the Florida Marlins, was on hand at Citi Field today when Hernandez’s #17 was retired by the Mets. You can read about the Hall of Fame case for Mattingly by clicking here.

The Offense of Keith Hernandez

While discussing the offensive prowess of Keith Hernandez, I’ll start by reiterating that his power numbers are in fact not what one normally expects from a first baseman.

If Keith were not the best defensive first baseman ever, his offensive numbers would not be sufficient for a Hall of Fame plaque. But he was still an excellent offensive player.

Going by offensive WAR, Hernandez’s mark of 46.3 ranks 15th best among all first basemen who logged at least 5,000 plate appearances in the last 50 years. That’s not spectacular but it’s solid when considering that his defensive WAR (dWAR) is #1.

Hernandez’s offensive value is represented in his on-base ability (.384 OBP), which ranks tied for the 10th best in the last 50 years (with that minimum of 5,000 PA). That’s an excellent number considering that he wrapped up his career prior to the PED era. His OBP was in the top 3 of the N.L. in 7 different seasons. For 5 different years, he was in the top 5 in doubles.

In 5 different seasons, the defensive specialist had an OPS+ of 140 or greater (good enough for the top 6 in the N.L. each time).

Then there’s this: if you take the bulk of Hernandez’s career (1976-1988), here is how he ranked among various statistical categories among the 16 first basemen who logged at least 4,000 plate appearances and played at least 50% of their games at first.

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With the exception of total WAR, all of the statistics on this graphic are offensive numbers. For a 13-year period, Keith Hernandez was the second-best offensive first baseman in baseball, behind only Hall of Famer Eddie Murray of the Baltimore Orioles.

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Best N.L. First Baseman of his Era

The preceding graphic is a lead-in to the last plank of the Hall of Fame case of Keith Hernandez to consider. While his home run numbers are pale compared to the power hitters at the position, he was one of the best two first basemen in the majors during the era in which he played.

The other of course was Murray. What’s unquestionable is that, from 1976 to 1988, Hernandez was easily the best first baseman in the National League.

Let’s take a wider view of the Hernandez era. His career began in 1974 and ended in 1990. On this chart, I’m showing the top first basemen who primarily played in the National League (minimum of 60% of PA in the N.L.)

I’ve expanded the years to include five years before Keith’s debut (1969) and five years after he retired (1995).

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A couple of notes about this chart. First, Tony Perez began his career in 1964; these numbers only reflect his performance from 1969 to 1986. Second, Will Clark continued playing well beyond 1995, ending his career after 2000. For Clark, most of those years were in the American League.

Regardless, if you add in Perez’s or Clark’s extra years (to account for their entire careers), Hernandez still looks good by comparison.

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Now, the truth is, Clark wasn’t truly a contemporary of Keith Hernandez. Clark debuted in 1986; Hernandez was finished after 1990. The two only shared five seasons in which they both toiled on MLB diamonds.

The true first base contemporaries of Keith Hernandez, players who shared at least 8 years in which they were both on MLB rosters, were Murray, Rod Carew, Perez, Mattingly, Garvey, Pete Rose, Dan Driessen, Cecil Cooper, Kent Hrbek, Mike Hargrove, Jason Thompson, Chris Chambliss, John Mayberry, Bob Watson, Leon Durham, and Buckner.

Murray, Carew, and Perez, of course, are Hall of Famers. Rose would be in the Hall were it not for his gambling but he didn’t start playing first base until 1979 when he was already 38 years old. Murray and Carew were primarily (Murray) or exclusively (Carew) American League players.

Hernandez v Perez

It’s arguable whether Hernandez had a better career than the Hall of Famer Tony Perez.

Hernandez has a massive edge defensively; Perez has a significant edge with the bat. Both were key contributors to two World Champion squads. WAR puts Hernandez ahead of Big Dog and I’m inclined to agree.

Either way, although the two players had careers that overlapped, Perez was a shell of his former self in the last 8 years of his career (1979-86) when Hernandez’ was taking off. Simply put, Hernandez was the best first baseman in the N.L. by a very wide margin from ’76 to ’88.

The other names I listed above all had nice careers but the only players other than Hernandez who have real Hall of Fame cases are Mattingly and Garvey (the case for and against Garvey here).

To Summarize

To summarize, there are three planks to a Hall of Fame case for Keith Hernandez:

1. Best defensive first baseman of all time.
2. A much better offensive player than the basic counting stats would indicate.
3. The best first baseman in his league (the National League) both offensively and defensively during the era in which he played.

If you don’t believe the first point, then you certainly won’t think Hernandez belongs in the Hall of Fame. I would surmise that most baseball observers, however, would concede that they never saw a better defensive first sacker.

It’s point #2 that kept Hernandez out of the Hall (and likely will continue to do so). It’s an individual judgment call for any observer to determine how much offensive value is necessary to be a legitimate complement to the defensive component. Clearly, the vast majority of baseball writers deemed Hernandez’s offense insufficient.

JAWS Ranking

By the way, there is one statistic that does attempt to determine the combined offense-defense value. It’s WAR of course. Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system (which combines overall WAR with a player’s best 7 years) puts Hernandez as the 20th best first baseman of all time.

Hernandez is behind 12 Hall of Famers, 3 active players (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto), the PED-linked Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro, and, finally, Todd Helton. The long-time Colorado Rockies first baseman (Helton) ranks 15th thanks to a brilliant peak. Helton is currently on the BBWAA ballot; his Cooperstown case is discussed here. By JAWS, Hernandez is ahead of 9 Hall of Famers, including Perez, Harmon Killebrew, and Orlando Cepeda.

Conclusion

I’m not sure how many writers even considered point #3, that Hernandez was by far the best first baseman in the N.L. in the era in which he played. Personally, I think being the best at your position in your league over a 20-year period is a very nice credential.

Even if you take the entire major leagues and lump Hernandez in with Eddie Murray and Rod Carew, being the third-best at your position out of 26 teams (for a 20-year period of time) is pretty darned great.

Keith Hernandez had a unique career, one that’s hard to quantify statistically. For me, it’s a career worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown.

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