Manny Machado to San Diego; did the Padres sign a Future Hall of Famer?

This morning, free agent shortstop Manny Machado signed a 10-year contract with the San Diego Padres, reportedly for $300 million. It’s the biggest free agent contract in the history of sports. Although he may start the season at shortstop, it’s most likely that Machado will play third base for San Diego, with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. slated to play shortstop. For 2019, Machado joins a veteran infield anchored by first baseman Eric Hosmer and second baseman Ian Kinsler.

Since Machado is only 26 years old and has played just seven seasons in Major League Baseball, it’s way to early to assess for sure whether he is bound for the Hall of Fame or not. However, because he’s accomplished a great deal in those first seven campaigns, it’s worth a brief look at how he compares to players from the past at the same age or same amount of service time.

Let’s begin.

Cooperstown Cred: Manny Machado (3B/SS)

• Baltimore Orioles (2012-2018), Los Angeles Dodgers (2018)
• Career: .282 BA, 175 HR, 513 RBI
• Career: 121 OPS+, 33.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 4-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 3 times in top 10 of A.L. MVP Voting

(cover photo: Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Manny Machado Career Highlights

Manuel Arturo Machado, from the moment he stepped onto a Major League diamond shortly after his 20th birthday in 2012, had the vibe of a future Hall of Famer. A star at Brito Miami Private High School, Machado was the third overall pick in the 2010 amateur draft. Machado was promoted directly from AA Bowie to Baltimore in August 2012, In his second game with the Baltimore Orioles, Machado hit two home runs, driving in four runs.

Machado was drafted as a shortstop (as the 3rd overall pick in 2010) and played that position in the minor leagues but exclusively played third base in the majors until the 2018 season. Once in the majors in ’12, Machado started every one of the O’s final 51 games and helped the team win one of the A.L. Wild Card spots.

The next year (2013), officially his age 20 season (he turned 21 on July 6th), Machado became an All-Star and Gold Glover, while finishing 9th in the MVP vote. He also hit a MLB-leading 51 doubles. Early in the season, when he hit a go-ahead 9th inning home run in Fenway Park, teammate Adam Jones dubbed Machado the “Baby Face Assassin.”

Late in the 2013 season, playing in his 207th game, Machado stepped awkwardly on first base in Tampa Bay, tearing a ligament in his left knee. The ensuing surgery caused him to miss the last six games of the season and the first month of the 2014 campaign. Starting May 1, he started 82 consecutive games before tearing a ligament in his right knee during an August 11th at bat at Camden Yards. The resulting  surgery ended his season. In case you’re wondering, Machado has abnormal knees which predisposed him to these injuries. His hope at the time was that the surgeries would keep his knees from being a problem later in his career.

Now fully healthy, Manny Machado returned to the diamond in 2015 and has played all but 11 of his team’s games in a four-year period. He became an all-around star in 2015, blossoming into a fearsome hitter. The Baby Face Assassin has hit over 30 home runs per season in the last four years while posting a 129 OPS+.

Trade to Los Angeles

Manny Machado moved from third base to shortstop before the 2018 campaign and was the only bright spot on a truly terrible club. After 97 games, the O’s were an unbelievably woeful 28-69 despite Manny’s best season with the bat. In just 96 games, he had slugged 24 home runs to go with 65 RBI and a 164 OPS+.

With free agency looming at the end of the season, Baltimore traded their young star right after the All-Star break to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for five minor league prospects. For the Dodgers, Machado was designed to be a rental to fill in at shortstop for Corey Seager, who was out for the season.

Machado drove in 42 runs in 66 games for the Dodgers, helping the team to its 6th straight N.L. West title. The Dodgers advanced to the World Series for the second consecutive season, falling in 5 games to the Boston Red Sox. Machado hit .182 in his first Fall Classic.

Long Slog through Free Agency

After the 2018 season, Manny Machado hit free agency and, given that he’s a star performer on the left side of the diamond and only 26 years old, many analysts expected him to command a record-setting contract. Based on his playing ability, youth and average of 5.8 WAR from 2015-18, MLB Trade rumors projected Manny to get a 13-year, $390 deal.

As the off-season progressed, however, it appeared that the high 300’s were far out of reach, even for a player this talented. Besides the natural wariness for any team to commit vast sums of money to one player, there are a couple of factors that clearly contributing to the slow Machado market. First of all, as Barry Bloom noted in Forbes, the fact that Machado has two surgically repaired knees makes it much more expensive or impossible to fully insure a $300+ million contract. At this point, it’s unknown to what degree the Padres succeeded in insuring this contract.

Second, there was this unfortunate comment that he made to Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic during the postseason:

“Obviously I’m not going to change, I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.”

— Manny Machaco (The Athletic, October 16, 2018)

Machado’s occasionally lackadaisical play can be excused in the context that he’s averaged 159 games played in the last 4 seasons; nobody in baseball has appeared in more games from 2015-18.

Finally, Machado has had to fight the reputation that he’s a dirty player. In Game 3 of the NLCS, he was called out for violating the “Chase Utley” rule by not holding the base in a slide at 2nd base. There have been other incidents, the most famous being in April 2017 when spiked the Boston Red Sox Dustin Pedroia on his left knee. Pedroia absolved Manny of any wrongdoing at the time but it’s an injury that the Sox’ second baseman has spent nearly two years trying to recover from.

Inevitably, one team was going to overlook the negatives and accentuate the positives. The Padres were ultimately that team. Although San Diego doesn’t look ready to contend right now, multiple outlets (including FanGraphs, mlb.com, and espn.com) have listed the Padres’ as owning the #1 farm system in all of baseball. As these young prospects reach the major leagues, the presence of an existing star will be there to hasten the team’s return to postseason baseball.

Did the other 29 Teams Pass Up a Future Hall of Famer?

With only seven MLB seasons under his belt, we are just projecting at this point whether Manny Machado will be a future member of the Hall of Fame but the easy answer is that he is definitely on a Cooperstown track. Machado is just 26 years old.

Here are The Baby Face Assassin’s statistics for the first seven years of his career:

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Let’s suppose Machado were to precisely duplicate those seven years from 2020-2026. If he did that, he would finish his career (at the tender age of 33) with these numbers:

• 8,148 PA, 350 HR, 1,026 RBI, 2,100 Hits, 67.6 WAR

Those numbers would make Machado a potential Hall of Famer if he spent the next 7 years at third base and a certain inductee if he plays shortstop. So, considering that he could potentially accomplish all of that by the age of 33, certainly there would be time in real life for Manny to reach milestones like 500 home runs and 3,000 hits.

Manny Machado: 33.8 WAR through his Age 25 Season

In all of baseball history, there are 32 position players who have achieved at least 30 WAR (per Baseball Reference) by the end of their age 25 season. Manny Machado (at 33.8) is 26th on that list. Interestingly, he’s just ahead of Joe DiMaggio, Barry Bonds, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth. Not bad company, although Ruth had also earned 20.6 WAR as a pitcher.

There are only four players on this list who are ahead of Machado who are eligible for the Hall of Fame and aren’t in it:

• Andruw Jones (37.6 WAR through his age 25 season, finished career with 62.8)
• Cesar Cedeno (35.1, finished with 52.8)
• Vada Pinson (34.9, finished with 54.3)
• Sherry Magee (34.0, finished with 59.3)

So, who are these four players who showed such early promise but never made it to Cooperstown?

Why Magee, Pinson, Cedeno and Jones have not made the Hall

Magee, who played from 1904-19 in the dead ball era, finished his career with a 137 OPS+ in 8,545 PA. His 1,176 RBI are the 5th most for the first 20 years of the 20th century, behind 4 Hall of Famers. Magee’s MLB career ended shortly after his 35th birthday after a poor season, probably costing him a chance to make the Hall. He spent 7 more productive seasons (hitting .326) in the minor leagues.

Magee is one of only two position players from the first 50 years of the 20th century with a WAR above 55 who is not in the Hall. The other is Shoeless Joe Jackson, who was banned for life for his role in the Black Sox scandal.

Pinson, a center fielder and teammate of the late Frank Robinson in Cincinnati from 1958-65, finished his career with 2,757 hits, 256 HR, and 111 OPS+. Those are solid numbers for a center fielder but not quite enough for a Cooperstown plaque. His productivity tailed off significantly after his age 26 season and he was finished at age 37.

Cedeno, also a center fielder, could run, hit with power and field. He’s one of three players in baseball history to record at least three seasons with 20 homers and 50 steals; the others are Rickey Henderson and Joe Morgan. Cedeno did this in his age 21 through age 23 seasons with the Houston Astros, winning Gold Gloves each year as well. He was compared early in his career to Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Roberto Clemente.

Unfortunately, injuries to his ankles and knees slowed him down in his late 20’s and early 30’s. Only three times in his last nine seasons was he able to play enough to qualify for the batting title.

Jones (with 434 HR and 10 Gold Gloves) is considered by those who are true believers in defensive metrics to be the best defensive center fielder in baseball history. He was terrific for 12 years with the Atlanta Braves (1996-2007) but then, after signing a two-year, $36 million contract with the Los Angeles, fell off a statistical cliff.

After showing up at spring training 20 pounds overweight, he hit just .158 in 238 plate appearances. Overnight he had turned himself from an elite defensive centerfielder into a player best suited to be a platoon designated hitter.  In two years on the BBWAA ballot, Jones has yet to impress the Hall of Fame voters. He got just 7.3% of the vote in 2018 and 7.5% this year.

Here endeth the history lesson.

How Manny Machado Ranks for his First Seven Seasons

For any position player in baseball, becoming a starter at the age of 20 makes it much easier to fashion a Hall of Fame career. Time is on your side when it comes to accumulating “counting” statistics that look good on the back of your baseball card. Based solely on his age, Manny Machado’s Cooperstown progress looks highly impressive.

For the record, Machado will always have an edge in the Baseball Reference leader boards that are based on age. The reason is that the age listed on each player’s statistics page is based on their age at midnight on June 30th of the year in question. Manny was born on July 6, 1992. The significance of this is that, as an example, he played 85 games in 2018 as a 25-year old and 77 games as a 26-year old. However, every page will list him as a 25-year old in 2018 and we call it his “age 25 season.”

The second way to measure Machado’s progress is by looking at how he’s done through 7 seasons compared to others in baseball history. Using this standard, Machado’s 33.8 WAR for seven seasons remains impressive but nearly as much so. 72 position players in MLB history have done better, including 15 who have not been voted into the Hall of Fame.

Still, he’s ahead of 118 position players who eventually made it into Cooperstown so, again, what he’s accomplished already augurs well to his eventual enshrinement. It’s important to remember, however, that the Hall of Fame is littered with players from the first half of the 20th century who were somewhat controversial or dubious Veterans Committee selections. So, if we look at how Machado’s first seven seasons compare to Hall of Famers who debuted in 1950 or later, we can get a better predictor.

• 55 Hall of Fame position players have debuted in 1950 or later
• 20 have a WAR of higher than 33.8 in their first 7 seasons
• 35 have a WAR of less than 33.8 in their first 7 seasons

Looking at just third basemen or shortstops debuting in 1950 or later, Machado’s first seven seasons of 33.8 WAR are better than 11 Hall of Famers (Chipper Jones, Barry Larkin, Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor, Tony Perez, Luis Aparicio, Robin Yount, Jim Thome, Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez and Brooks Robinson). Yes, Thome, Perez, and Edgar spent the majority of their first seven seasons at the hot corner. He’s behind 7 players: Wade Boggs, Eddie Mathews, Ernie Banks, Mike Schmidt, Cal Ripken Jr. and George Brett.

How Manny Machado Ranks with his Contemporaries

How does Manny Machado stack up in his first seven career seasons with his contemporaries? We’ll look again at both third basemen and shortstops because it’s uncertain where he’ll play for the balance of his career.

This chart shows the first 7 seasons of the careers of 14 players who were on MLB rosters in 2018. Included are three players (Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez) who have yet to complete 7 campaigns.

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Two players on this list (Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera) are certain Hall of Famers. Ahead of Machado on the list, Evan Longoria looked like a sure-fire Hall of Famer after his first six seasons (he already had 35.9 WAR and a 136 OPS+). His last five campaigns (16.0 WAR/108 OPS+) have been a bit lackluster and his Cooperstown future is less clear.

Josh Donaldson has the distinct disadvantage of not becoming a regular player until he was 27 years old. Plus, injuries limited him to just 113 games in 2017 and 52 in 2018. He’ll have a fresh start with the Atlanta Braves this year and will need to post three or four more MVP caliber seasons to be a realistic candidate.

Andrelton Simmons, just ahead of Machado on this list, has a high WAR because of off-the-charts defensive metrics. It’s harder for players (especially shortstops) to maintain those numbers into their 30’s so one would have to rate Machado’s Cooperstown chances as significantly greater.

The most similar player on the list is Arenado, Colorado’s brilliant defensive third sacker who also can hit. Certainly it’s possible that both and and Machado have a Hall of Fame speech in their futures.

Manny Machado and Bryce Harper

Because the two players are currently linked at the hip as premium young free agents who remain unsigned, let’s finish by comparing Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.

A couple of weeks ago, I conducted a highly unscientific poll on Twitter about whether Machado or Harper would be eventual Hall of Famers. While 65% said “yes” for Harper, just 42% said “yes” for Machado. Again, this was highly unscientific and the sample size was just 102 respondents but it’s interesting that Harper was viewed more favorably than Machado even though has been a significantly superior player in the last three seasons.

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Machado’s significant WAR advantage is due to defensive metrics and also by playing a more valuable position on the diamond. Still, in the last three years, Machado’s offensive production is right on par with Harper’s with the latter’s main advantage being a super-high walk rate, resulting in a high OBP.

Conclusion

To recap:

1. Manny Machado is only 26 years old and needs to merely replicate his production from the previous seven years to be a legitimate candidate for the Hall.
2. Despite two knee surgeries, he has been durable, averaging 159 games played in the last four years.
3. His production (calculated by WAR) through his age 25 season is higher than over a hundred Hall of Famers, including many top tier players.
4. His production for his first 7 years (regardless of age) is inferior to 20 Hall of Fame position players who debuted in 1950 or later and superior to 35 others.

Finally, Machado has been one of the best players in baseball for the last 6 years. By WAR, only Mike Trout, Donaldson, Paul Goldschmidt, Mookie Betts, Arenado and Jose Altuve have been better. He’s a perennial All-Star, only missing in 2014 (when his season started late due to injury) and in 2017 (his one “off” year).

What Machado is building is both a “peak value” Hall of Fame case and a “career value” case.

Besides the possibility that he might just start playing at an inferior level for no discernible reason, there are three wild cards that could ultimately determine Machado’s Cooperstown fate. The first is that his irregular knees and surgeries on both will accelerate the normal aging curve.

The second wild card, which could be either good or bad, is whether he plays third base or shortstop for the balance of his career. Before his first knee injury, Machado’s defense at third base was other-worldly. Since the injuries, he has been solid but a clear cut below elite level. In 2018, probably to increase his free agent value, he asked to be moved to shortstop. By the numbers, he was a miserable fielder in Baltimore but miraculously an excellent one in Los Angeles. This is the kind of disparity that makes me feel that advanced defensive metrics are still overly influenced by factors outside of a player’s control.

As it stands now, it looks like he’ll spend the vast majority of his time at the hot corner. Given the type of hitter he is, Machado’s path to Cooperstown would have been much easier if he were at short while playing the position acceptably.

The Impact of Petco Park

Finally, the third wild card is Manny Machado’s team choice. If he remains with the San Diego Padres for 10 seasons, that is going to have a dampening affect on his career hitting totals, specifically home runs. Machado has hit over 30 home runs in each of the last 4 seasons. In the 16-year history of PetCo Park, only six times has a member of the Padres swatted 30 home runs. Adrian Gonzalez did it four times; Wil Myers and Chase Headley did it one time each.

Since 2004, there have been a total of 2,070 home runs hit at Petco, an average of 129 per season. At Camden Yards in Baltimore, 3,081 home runs were hit in the same 16-year period, which comes out to an average of 193 per campaign. Literally, there have been 50% more longballs hit at Camden than at Petco over 16 years. Those splits have been slightly less severe in the last six years (when the Padres moved in the fences at Petco) but that doesn’t change the reality that Machado is moving into a pitcher’s park.

Dan Szymborski from FanGraphs, who runs projection forecasts for players, projects Machado to hit 256 home runs with 1,435 hits and 34.2 WAR over the next 10 years, based on his choice of San Diego. If Symborski’s crystal ball were to be 100% accurate, Machado would be sitting at 431 taters, 2,485 hits, and a 64.2 WAR (fWAR, the FanGraphs version) at the age of 36, the end of his contract. For whatever its worth, those are Hall of Fame numbers if the bulk of those years were as a shortstop, a solid but not certain case as a third sacker.

Hall of Fame Odds

When originally published on February 10th, this was the first in what will be a series of features before Opening Day on the top stars in today’s game. In these pieces, I will attempt to assess each player’s odds of eventually being granted a plaque in the Hall of Fame. These odds are highly unscientific and designed to provide material for future mocking. The odds are my best guess based on how the player is trending and what the historical success rate has been for similar players at the same stage in their careers.

Given all of the factors discussed above, it seems more likely than not that Manny Machado will eventually be in the Hall of Fame. Still, because there are tons of things that could go wrong, I’ll conservatively put his odds at just a little bit above 50%.

Manny Machado Hall of Fame odds — 55%

When I originally published this 9 days ago, I put Machado’s Hall of Fame odds at 60%. Given his choice of San Diego and the likelihood that he’ll be mostly a third baseman, I’ve downgraded his odds ever so slightly.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.