Max Scherzer Adds Another Milestone to His Hall of Fame Case

Last night in Milwaukee, New York Mets starter Max Scherzer earned his 200th win in Major League Baseball. In typical Scherzer fashion, he was brilliant in this milestone game, the 428th regular season outing in his 15-year career. The 38-year-old right-hander tossed six perfect innings (with nine strikeouts) before getting pulled by manager Buck Showalter after just 68 pitches. (This was just Scherzer’s second start after coming off the Injured List).

New York was up 5-0 when Showalter went to the bullpen. The Mets wound up beating the Brewers 7-2 in what was the team’s 94th victory, one that wrapped up the franchise’s first playoff berth since 2016.

Scherzer joined former teammate Justin Verlander (243 wins) and Zach Greinke (223) as the only active pitchers with 200 or more wins. In today’s game, with starting pitchers rarely going past the 7th inning, 200 wins are slowly becoming the “new 300.” The 200th victory, coming against just 101 losses, is a cherry on top of Scherzer’s Hall of Fame sundae.

Although wins and losses aren’t valued as much today as they were in the 20th century, a 200-101 (.664) record over an entire pitching career is a sign of true greatness. In the modern era (since 1901), there are only four pitchers who have at least 200 career victories with a W-L% better than Scherzer’s .664. The four are Hall of Famers Whitey Ford, Pedro Martinez, Lefty Grove, and Christy Mathewson.

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With over 3,000 strikeouts and 3 Cy Young Awards under his belt, Max Scherzer is a lock to be inducted into the National Hall of Fame and Museum six years after he retires.

However, Scherzer is far from done. Last December, he signed a 3-year, $130 million contract with the Mets. Although he’s had two stints on the Injured List, Scherzer has been typically brilliant in his first year in Queens, going 10-4 with a 2.15 ERA in 21 starts. Although his volume in 2023-24 may be somewhat limited, one can expect continued excellence from this all-time great hurler.

Max Scherzer’s 3,000th Strikeout

Scherzer earned his 200th win a little over a year after he struck out the 3,000th batter of his career. Last September, Scherzer, then a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers, struck out San Diego’s Eric Hosmer in the top of the 5th frame in what was his 2,516th career inning pitched. Only Randy Johnson reached the 3,000-K plateau in fewer seasons and in fewer innings. And, just for fun, Scherzer carried a perfect game into the 8th inning before Hosmer exacted a modicum of revenge by spoiling it with a one-out double. Because being perfect or nearly perfect in milestone-setting games is how Max rolls.

Starting with his breakout Cy Young campaign in 2013, Scherzer has been, pound for pound, the most productive pitcher in baseball. He made eight consecutive All-Star squads from 2013-21, won two more Cy Young Awards, and finished in the top 5 for five other seasons.

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Cooperstown Cred: Max Scherzer  (SP)

• Arizona D’Backs (2008-09), Detroit Tigers (2010-14), Washington Nationals (2015-21), Los Angeles Dodgers (2021), New York Mets (2022)
• Career: 200-101 (.664 WL%), 3.11 ERA, 3,182 strikeouts
• Career: 70.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 135 ERA+
• 8-time All-Star
• 10th pitcher all-time to win three Cy Young Awards (2013, 2016, 2017)
• Eight consecutive seasons with 230 or more strikeouts (2012-19)
• Led the N.L. in strikeouts, WHIP in 2016, ’17 and ’18
• Career: 10.72 strikeouts per 9 innings (best in MLB history) (min 2,000 IP)
• Pitched 2 no-hitters in 2015
• Struck out 20 batters on May 11, 2016, vs. the Detroit Tigers
• Has 110 career 10+ strikeout games (most in MLB since 2000)

This piece was first published in November 2018 and updated after the Nationals completed their World Series victory in 2019. It has been updated twice since then, including today with the news of Scherzer’s 200th victory.

(cover photo: The Sporting News)

Max Scherzer’s 2019 Postseason

At the end of the 2019 regular season, Max Scherzer had 170 wins, a 132 ERA+, a 57.4 WAR, and 3 Cy Young Awards. If his career had ended there, he would have had a strong case for the Hall of Fame based on his extraordinary peak years (having what I often refer to as the “Sandy Koufax” case). What Scherzer lacked, however, was a World Series ring. That changed in October 2019, and it’s why, in my opinion, Scherzer clinched a plaque in Cooperstown that month.

The 2019 playoff season was one of absolute joy for Washington Nationals fans, a sea change after years of heartbreak. Scherzer was a significant contributor to that postseason success. Although he had a no-decision in Game 7 of the World Series, giving up 2 runs in 5 gutty innings, he won his previous three starts. Overall, in his last four starts, he gave up 5 ER in 24 innings (for a 1.88 ERA).

In the NLDS, the Nationals fell down to 2 Games to 1 against the Dodgers, creating a “win or go home” start in Game 4 for Scherzer. With the team’s bullpen uncertain, manager Dave Martinez needed quality and quantity from his ace and Max delivered a signature postseason start. On a Monday night in weather more suitable for Monday Night Football, the man with both a brown and blue eye went seven strong innings, giving up just one run on four hits. Thanks to a 5th inning, 3-run home run by longtime National Ryan Zimmerman, Washington had a comfortable 6-1 lead when Scherzer was finished. Two days later, the Nats advanced to the NLCS in a come-from-behind Game 5 win.

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The Nats cruised through the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals, sweeping the Redbirds in 4 Games. Scherzer, in Game 2, was his dominant self, tossing 7 shutout innings while yielding just 1 hit and 2 walks against 11 strikeouts.

In the World Series for the first time since he was with Detroit in 2012, Scherzer was tabbed to start Game 1 in Houston. Blue Eye labored in the first inning, giving up a 2-run double while throwing 29 pitches. Despite the Astros running consistently deep counts, Scherzer gutted out 4 subsequent scoreless innings and became the winning pitcher when the Nationals managed to score 5 runs against the previously untouchable Gerrit Cole.

With the Series tied at 2 games, Scherzer was supposed to start Game 5 in Washington. However, spasms in his right trapezius muscle, the area behind his shoulder, forced him to miss that start. Behind swingman Joe Ross, the Nats lost 7-1.

Thanks to a brilliant outing by Stephen Strasburg and timely hitting from Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon, the Nats won Game 6, giving Mad Max another chance to pitch in this Fall Classic. After a cortisone shot and a visit to the team chiropractor, Scherzer pronounced himself “good to go” just two days after not being able to lift his right arm.

Game 7

Max Scherzer’s Game 7 matchup against Houston’s Zack Greinke represented the first Game 7 in World Series history with a pitching card featuring two hurlers with over 150 wins and more than a 50.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Ultimately, neither pitcher got a win or a loss, but the Nationals’ bats tattooed the Astros’ relievers to deliver a 6-2 win and the World Championship.

For Mad Max, to be able to give his team five solid innings just days after needing help from his wife to get dressed was a testimony to his hard-nosed competitiveness, the football-type mentality he brings to the game of baseball.

“It was gutsy, man. …He willed us to stay in the game and that was awesome. I know guys fed off it.”

— Sean Doolittle (Nationals relief pitcher, October 30th, USA Today)

“We fought together, we stayed in the fight and we won the damn fight. We did it… The old guys. The Viejos. The old guys can do it. We have the experience. We don’t fold under pressure. We deserve this.’’

— Max Scherzer (October 30th, USA Today)

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A Late Bloomer

Maxwell M. Scherzer, a former first-round draft pick by the Diamondbacks, was 25 years old when he was traded to the Tigers (in a 3-way deal with the New York Yankees). The return for the D’Backs? Pitchers Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson, both solid MLB pitchers, but neither of them ever approached the level of excellence authored by Scherzer.

In his first five major league seasons, there was nothing that would make anybody think that Scherzer was a future Hall of Famer. In those five seasons (with Arizona and Detroit), Max posted a respectable 52-42 record with a 3.88 ERA. Not bad, but not Hall of Fame worthy.

In 2013, armed with a new curveball that helped him against left-handed hitters and whose mere existence served to make his fastball and slider more effective, Scherzer emerged as one of the top starters in the game. He led the Tigers to the A.L. Central title, going 21-3 en route to the A.L. Cy Young Award.

The following April, there was a rather famous piece in Sports Illustrated with a cover headline that said “Mad Max’s $144 Million Bet,” a reference to his decision to turn down Detroit’s $144 million offer to extend his contract.

Baseball history is replete with one-hit wonders, pitchers who had one extraordinary season amidst others of more pedestrian caliber. I thought Scherzer was nuts to turn down $144 million: this was a guy who had, at the time, never thrown a complete game in his life.

The previous October, in Game 2 of the ALCS, Scherzer was pulled after 7 innings of one-run ball (with 13 strikeouts). He had thrown 108 pitches, and Tigers manager Jim Leyland determined that he had had enough, opting to go with his bullpen.

That move culminated with David Ortiz’s game-tying grand slam home run off Joaquin Benoit in the 8th inning and an eventual walk-off win that turned the series around for the Boston Red Sox. I could just imagine Jack Morris throwing things at his TV when Scherzer was yanked after seven innings.

Anyway, after the 2013 season, Mad Max bet on himself and parlayed a solid 2014 campaign (18-5, 3.15 ERA) into a seven-year, $210 million contract with the Washington Nationals.

National Treasure

Max Scherzer is one of those rare athletes that kept improving his performance level in his 30s. When you combine run prevention and durability, the now 38-year-old Scherzer has been the best pitcher in baseball for the last 10 years.

In the modern game of baseball, where 7-figure contracts are commonplace for free agents, Scherzer’s deal with the National was one of the game’s best “deals” for his team. In the last several years, sabermetricians have calculated that one extra “Win” (as in Wins Above Replacement) has been worth between $7 million and $9 million on the free-agent market.

If we use the lowest number of that standard, Scherzer (with his 41.5 WAR from 2015-21) delivered $290.5 million worth of production to the Washington Nationals and (in 11 starts) to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In his first season with the Nats, Scherzer went 14-12 with a 2.79 ERA, which was good enough to finish 5th in the Cy Young balloting. He then went on to win two consecutive Cy Youngs in 2016 and 2017, going 20-7 (2.96 ERA) in ’16 and 16-6 (2.51 ERA) in ’17. In both seasons, he led the National League in strikeouts, WHIP (walks plus hits per 9 innings), and WAR for pitchers.

In 2018, Scherzer finished 2nd in the N.L. Cy Young to Jacob deGrom, even though it was arguably Max’s best season ever. Scherzer posted an 18-7 record, 2.53 ERA, and a major-league leading 300 strikeouts. In addition, his 220.2 innings pitched, 0.911 WHIP (walks + hits per inning), and 5.9 SO/BB ratio were the best in the N.L. It was deGrom’s 1.70 ERA, and incredible string of 24 straight quality starts that gave him the Cy despite a mediocre 10-9 won-loss record, thanks to historically terrible run support.

The 2019 campaign was Scherzer’s first in a Nationals uniform that he lost some starts due to injury. Still, he went 11-7 (2.92 ERA) with 243 strikeouts in 172.1 innings, which was good enough for a 3rd place Cy Young finish. And, of course, there was his prolific postseason performance.

Scherzer had an off-year in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign (5-4, 3.74 ERA) before rebounding for an excellent 2021 season, going 15-4 (2.46 ERA) in 19 starts with the Nats and 11 with the Dodgers.

Max Scherzer in Dodger Blue

Scherzer spent most of the 2015-21 seasons with the Nationals, winning that World Series title with them in 2019, but the team decided to undergo a full-scale rebuild last summer and traded the 3-time Cy Young Award winner to Los Angeles. Scherzer was brilliant at the start of his tenure in Los Angeles, going 7-0 with a 0.78 in his first 9 starts in Dodger Blue. Max did run out of steam at the end, however, giving up 10 runs in 10.1 IP in his last two regular season starts.

The 106-win Dodgers were expected to be top contenders for the 2021 World Series title but fell to the 88-win Atlanta Braves in 6 games in the NLCS. In the NLDS, against the N.L. West Champion San Francisco Giants (who won 107 games), Scherzer was on the bump for Game 3, with the series tied at a game apiece. Scherzer was brilliant, delivering 7 innings of one-run ball with 3 hits allowed, one walk, and 10 strikeouts. However, four Giants pitchers were better, shutting out the prolific Dodgers’ hitters.

After the Dodgers won Game 4, manager Dave Roberts (likely on directions from the front office), ran Game 5 as a bullpen game. Reliever Corey Knebel started, Julio Urias was used as the “volume pitcher” (going 4 frames from the 3rd to the 6th innings) and used his closer (Kenley Jansen) in the 8th. The Dodgers broke a 1-1 in the top of the 9th on a Cody Bellinger RBI single.

With his best bullpen arms already used, Roberts went to Scherzer (on two days’ rest) to close the game in the bottom of the 9th. And Mad Max delivered, tossing a scoreless inning while striking out the final two batters, sending the Dodgers to the NLCS against the Braves. It was his first postseason save.

Although the bullpen game strategy (with Scherzer closing it out) advanced the Dodgers to the NLCS, the use of Scherzer out of the pen was not without consequences. Three days later, in Game 2 of the NLCS, Scherzer took to the mound in Atlanta and, by his own admission, his “arm was dead.” The veteran ace lasted only 4.1 innings (4 hits, 2 ER) before being pulled. The score was tied at 2 when Scherzer was sent to the showers; the Braves ultimately won 5-4 to take a 2-0 series lead. Scherzer would not pitch again in the series. Atlanta won the series in 6 games, advancing to (and ultimately winning) the World Series.

By a wide variety of common statistics and advanced metrics, Scherzer was the most valuable pitcher in the game for the 7 seasons spanning that free-agent deal he signed with the Nats. If you’re not familiar with some of the categories, please see the Glossary.

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A little over two months after his brief tenure with the Dodgers, Scherzer signed with the Mets.

Max Scherzer v Clayton Kershaw & Jacob deGrom

As you can see, Clayton Kershaw’s and Jacob deGrom’s ERA (and park-adjusted ERA+) were superior, but Scherzer led in volume. The numbers that are not on the chart above are Kershaw’s innings total of 1,076.1 and deGrom’s total of 1,121.1. Kershaw and deGrom were arguably the “better” starting pitchers from 2015-21 (due to their ERAs), but Scherzer’s 1,297.1 innings give him more value (measured by his 41.5 WAR compared to deGrom’s 36.6 and Kershaw’s 28.5).

If you take a longer view, going back to 2013 (Scherzer’s breakout season) and including most of 2022, his 58.6 WAR remains superior to Kershaw’s 47.1 and deGrom’s 41.4 over those 10 seasons. In all of baseball, only Mike Trout’s 70.5 WAR from 2013-22 is superior to Max’s 58.6.

This is not to say, for their entire career bodies of work, that Scherzer is Kershaw’s equal or that (when healthy) Max’s current teammate deGrom hasn’t been the best pitcher in baseball over the last several. Starting with the first of his two consecutive Cy Young campaigns in 2018, the Mets right-hander has been the most dominant hurler in the sport. But he’s only managed to toss 146.1 innings in the last two seasons and may be finished for the year.

As for Kershaw, Scherzer’s teammate in Los Angeles in the second half of 2021, the tall Dodger ace has a track record of superior pitching that goes back well over a decade, to 2009, when he was just 21 years old. Max, as we’ve seen, was a late bloomer as a true ace, and therefore, his career “rate” stats are far less impressive than Clayton’s, although he has passed Kershaw in career innings, wins, and strikeouts.

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Max Scherzer has already done enough to make the Hall of Fame

If Max Scherzer were to retire today, has he already accomplished enough in his career to get a plaque with his visage on it in Cooperstown? Forgetting for a moment that, even at the age of 38, Scherzer is anything but finished as a productive starting pitcher, the easy answer is “yes.”

It’s a “yes” for Max simply because he’s already had a sufficient number of Hall of Fame quality campaigns to make it into the Hall. From 2013-19, he had seven consecutive seasons in which he finished with a Cy Young Award or finished in the top 5, and he finished 3rd in 2021.

Scherzer is one of just 10 pitchers to win the Cy Young three times. The other 9 include 7 first-ballot Hall of Famers, Kershaw, and the PED-tainted Roger Clemens.

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Now, as we look at this list, one has to acknowledge that most of the other 9 names have greater overall career accomplishments. Five of them won 300 games. Jim Palmer won 268. Pedro Martinez won “only” 219 but had a ridiculous career ERA of 2.93 in the PED era (which translates to a 154 ERA+).

Max Scherzer v Sandy Koufax

When I first published this piece, I noted that Scherzer’s numbers line up pretty well when compared to the great Sandy Koufax, another late bloomer but one who retired at the age of 30. The numbers look even better for Mad Max today.

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This is pretty remarkable; the biggest difference between the actual ERA for both. Koufax’ is much better, but Scherzer’s ERA+ is superior because Sandy pitched in one of the best-ever eras for pitching success.

When I first looked at Scherzer and Koufax side-by-side (in 2018), Mad Max had 159 wins and 3 Cy Youngs and I postulated that he had met the Koufax regular-season standard of peak greatness but that the Left Arm of God, as a three-time World Series champion, had the postseason pedigree (0.95 ERA, 2 World Series MVPs) that is nearly unmatched in baseball history.

Final Thoughts

Now that Max Scherzer has passed Koufax in wins and innings pitched and earned a ring of his own while reaching the 200 win and 3,000 strikeout milestones, it’s pretty easy to reach the conclusion that he has passed Sandy and will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, just as Koufax was.

Again, this is still just an intellectual exercise because Scherzer is far from being done. Mad Max still has a chance to bolster his Cooperstown credentials, but he’s already done all of the heavy lifting that he’ll need to get into the Hall of Fame. With the 3 Cy Youngs, the two no-hitters, the 20 strikeout game, 200 wins, and over 3,000 career whiffs, he’s got the bullet points that will make for easy writing when it’s time to make his Cooperstown plaque.

Even at 38, the smart money says that Scherzer will continue to excel in his age 39 and age 40 seasons, the final two on his contract with the Mets. Scherzer is one of the most cerebral pitchers in all of baseball. He continually looks at analytics and video to improve himself and self-correct. If he needs to, he’ll re-invent himself completely.

I’d count on him to continue to compensate as he ages, even if, perhaps, he loses a little speed off his fastball. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he competes for more Cy Youngs beyond this contract and into his early 40s.

And, on a team with a strong starting rotation (deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco) and an elite closer (Edwin Diaz), he’ll have another chance this October for more postseason glory.

Thanks for reading.

Please visit Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Chris Bodig

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