Mike Trout, now 30, already a future Hall of Famer

Mike Trout, the supremely talented center fielder for the Los Angeles Angels, turned 30 years old today. Trout, on the injured list since May 18th, has missed the last 70 team games due to a right calf injury. It’s only the 3rd time Trout has been on the injured list in his 11-year career in Major League Baseball but, thanks to the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, the 2nd consecutive year in which his season has been significantly curtailed.

Despite all of the missed time in 2020 and 2021, Trout remains a virtual lock for eventual induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum based on what he accomplished from 2012-2020, a nine-year stretch of brilliance in which he amassed a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 73.6 while winning 3 American League Most Valuable Player trophies (along with 4 runner-up finishes).

As all baseball fans eagerly await Trout’s return to the diamond, all you need to do is look at Trout’s “Cooperstown Cred” to see why he’s already crossed the bar to become a first-ballot Hall of Famer, regardless of what he does in the rest of his career.

Cooperstown Cred: Mike Trout (CF)

• Los Angeles Angels (2011-22)
• Career: .305 BA, .419 OBP, .583 SLG
• Career: 310 HR, 816 RBI, 1,419 Hits
• Career: 175 OPS+, 75.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Has led the American League in OPS+ 6 times (led all MLB 4 times)
• Leads all active MLB players in OBP and SLG (minimum 3,000 PA)
• Career WAR (75.9) is 6th best all-time for MLB position players prior to 30th birthday
• Career OPS+ (175) is tied for 5th best all-time in MLB history (min. 5,000 PA)
• 3-time A.L. MVP (2014, 2016, 2019), A.L. Rookie of the Year in 2012
• A.L. MVP runner-up 4 times (2012, 2013, 2015, 2018)
• 9-time All-Star, 8-time Silver Slugger Award Winner

(cover photo: Kevin Sullivan, Orange County Register)

As you can see by the amount of black and black italic type on his Baseball-Reference page, Mike Trout was the game’s most dominant player from 2012-19. Only once in these eight campaigns did he fail to finish either 1st or 2nd in the MVP balloting. In the “down” year (2017), one in which he played in only 114 games due to injury, he still finished 4th. In the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, Trout finished 5th in the MVP vote. With a stellar 36-game slash line of .333/.466/.624 to start the 2021 season, Trout was an early candidate for a 4th MVP but the calf injury ended those hopes.

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Mike Trout: Career Highlights

Michael Nelson Trout was born on August 7, 1991, in Vineland, New Jersey. He grew up in nearby Millville, a small city in the southern part of the state, about 45 miles south of Philadelphia. As a result of his proximity to the City of Brotherly Love, Trout was a huge fan of the Philadelphia Phillies while growing up. He played both baseball and basketball at Millville Senior High School. On the diamond, he was both a pitcher and shortstop and threw a no-hitter in his junior season.

Trout moved to the outfield during his senior year and was the 25th overall selection (by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) in the 2009 Major League Baseball draft. Trout was available to the Angels at the 25th slot in the draft as a compensation pick for the New York Yankees’ free agent signing of Mark Teixeira. (The Angels had traded first baseman Casey Kotchman and a minor league pitcher to the Atlanta Braves for Teixeira the previous summer so, in a convoluted way, they got Mike Trout for Casey Kotchman. Good move!)

Trout’s official rookie campaign was in 2012 but he got a couple of cups of coffee with the big club in 2011. The right-handed-hitting Trout made his Major League Baseball debut on July 8, just 30 days shy of his 20th birthday. With 123 official at-bats for the season, he fell just short of the 130 AB threshold that would have classified 2011 as his official rookie season.

2012-13: Back to Back MVP Runner-Ups

As a result of his 123 ABs in 2011, Mike Trout was officially a rookie in 2012, although he did not make the team out of spring training. This was due to an outfield/corner infield/DH logjam caused by Albert Pujols (1B), Mark Trumbo (3B), Vernon Wells/Bobby Abreu (LF), Peter Bourjos (CF), Torii Hunter (RF), and Kendrys Morales (DH).

In 20 games with the Salt Lake City Bees (AAA), Trout slashed a robust .403/.467/.623, forcing the Angels’ hands. Abreu was released and Trout was back with the big club by April 28th: he started 138 of the team’s final 142 games, playing mostly in center field but also in left as manager Mike Scioscia tried to find playing time for his other outfielders. With Trout in the minors, the Angels lost 14 of their first 20 games of the 2012 campaign; after the recall of the 20-year old phenom, the team went 83-59 (.585). The Angels missed a Wild Card berth by four games.

Looking back, Trout’s extraordinary rookie campaign, completed in just 139 games, was arguably the finest all-around season of his career. Hitting leadoff on an everyday basis, he scored a remarkable 129 runs in 139 games. Besides putting himself on base with a .326 BA and .399 OBP, Trout stole 49 bases (best in MLB) while getting caught only 5 times. Additionally, according to the defensive metrics on Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, he also was one of the top defensive outfielders in the game. He became the first player in the history of baseball to hit 30+ home runs, steal 45+ bases, and score over 125 runs. (Nobody has done this since).

Trout made an impression on baseball fans around the nation with a couple of fantastic web gems. The best known is this catch, robbing J.J. Hardy of a home run, in a game at Camden Yards.

And there’s this home-run robbing catch that he turned into a double play off the bat of Seattle’s Miguel Olivo.

This is a full highlight reel of Trout’s 2012 campaign, showing both offensive and defensive highlights. As you can see, he made multiple spectacular plays in center field, several of which robbed his opponents of home runs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OlwKO9xNjI

Besides winning the Rookie of the Year Award unanimously, Trout was the runner-up to Miguel Cabrera in what was a controversial MVP vote (more on this below).

With the off-season free-agent signing of right fielder Josh Hamilton (the 2010 A.L. MVP), Angels fans dreamed of October baseball but Hamilton was barely above average while Pujols missed over 60 games due to injury; the Angels finished a disappointing 78-84.

In the Awards season, Trout finished 2nd to Cabrera in the MVP voting, again in a controversial outcome.

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2014-20: Perennial MVP contender

The Angels clicked on all cylinders (especially offensively) in 2014, leading to a 98-win campaign and the A.L. West crown. Trout was an All-Star for the third straight year and was the MVP of the game (at Target Field in Minnesota): he went 2 for 3 with a double, triple, and 2 RBI.

Although statistically, Trout’s numbers weren’t quite up to his standards of 2012-13, he would eventually win his first MVP unanimously. The playoffs, however, would be a huge disappointment. The Angels were swept in 3 games by the winner of the one-game Wild Card playoff, the Kansas City Royals. The 22-year old Trout went 1 for 12 (.083) with a solo HR in what has been to this day his only appearance in postseason baseball.

In early 2015, Trout became the youngest player in MLB history to reach 100 HR and 100 SB (at 23 years and 253 days of age). Trout was the MVP of the All-Star game for the 2nd year in a row, setting the pace for the A.L. by leading off the game with a home run (off the Dodgers’ Zack Greinke). As a team, the Angels got reasonably close to another postseason berth in 2015 (winning 85 games) but finished 3 games out of the Wild Card game. In the years since the Angels have not had a winning season despite the presence of the best player in baseball.

Trout finished 2nd (to Toronto’s Josh Donaldson) in the 2015 MVP vote before besting Boston’s Mookie Betts in the 2016 balloting. With the MVP win, Trout also became the 2nd player in baseball history (with Barry Bonds) to finish 1st or 2nd in the MVP vote for 5 consecutive seasons.

As previously noted, Trout finished 4th in 2017 (due to only 114 games played, thanks to a May injury that resulted in a torn UCL in his left thumb). On the third to last game of the season, the 26-year old Trout swatted his 200th and 201st career home runs. Although he’s known more as an all-around great hitter rather than a slugger, Trout is one of only 8 hitters in baseball history to hit at least 200 HR by the end of his age-25 season: the others are Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Hall of Famers Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, Mickey Mantle, and Frank Robinson.

(In case you’re confused, a player’s “age” season is defined as their age on June 30th. Trout was 25 years old on June 30th, 2017, turning 26 on August 7th. Hence 2017 is known as his “age-25 season.”)

Trout finished 2nd to Betts in the 2018 MVP race. He was limited to 140 games thanks to his second career trip to the disabled list (right wrist inflammation). In the 2018 Mid-Summer Classic, Trout had another signature moment with a solo home run off the Mets’ Jacob deGrom.

Trout became the highest-paid player in sports in late March 2019 when he was inked to a 12-year, $426 million contract extension, one that will last until he is 39 years old. On the diamond, the powerful right-handed-hitting megastar established a new career-high with 45 home runs in 2019; the 45 taters were the 2nd most in the A.L. (to Kansas City’s Jorge Soler).

Thanks to a neuroma on his right foot, Trout missed the final 19 games of the 2019 campaign but, thanks to leading the league in on-base percentage and slugging percentage, he edged Houston’s Alex Bregman to win the MVP trophy. In doing so, he became just the 11th player in Major League Baseball history to win the award three times or more.

In the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, Trout hit the 300th home run of his career in an early September game against Houston. Trout finished 5th in the MVP vote, his “worst” showing in his 9 full MLB campaigns.

How Many MVPs Did Mike Trout Deserve?

I noted earlier that Mike Trout’s runner-up finishes to Miguel Cabrera in the 2012 and 2013 MVP balloting were controversial. Neither vote was particularly close: the controversy was due to Trout’s superior WAR in both campaigns. The debate over which player deserved the hardware was an “old school” vs sabermetric debate.

If you recall, in 2012 Cabrera was the first player since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 to win the batting Triple Crown: Miggy led the A.L. with a .330 BA, 44 HR, and 139 RBI. From an old-school perspective, it was unthinkable to deny a Triple Crown winner the MVP, and Cabrera gained 22 out of 28 first-place votes, with Trout getting the other 6. The argument in favor of Trout, however, was strong. Thanks to superb base-running (49 SB, 5 CS) and defense, Trout’s WAR was 10.5, significantly higher than Cabrera’s 7.1.

Take a look at the two men’s numbers, side by side:

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The controversy returned in 2013. Cabrera didn’t win the traditional Triple Crown but he did win the “slash line” Triple Crown by leading the American League (and all of baseball) in BA (.348), OBP (.442), and SLG (.636). Trout had another huge season, but not one quite as robust as his 2012 Rookie year, thanks to a surprising nosedive in his defensive metrics. Still, Trout’s overall WAR was better.

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Again, the actual vote wasn’t close. Cabrera got 23 first-place votes; Trout received 5.

Did the writers make the wrong call in these two votes? It’s hard to say. Cabrera’s Tigers made the postseason party in both seasons while Trout’s Angels did not. Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, I think Trout’s 2012 campaign was truly special and deserving of the MVP trophy. (I have a much more detailed breakdown of the 2012 MVP race in the 4th comment at the bottom of the piece).

However, 2013 was a different story. MVP Awards should never be doled out solely based on Wins Above Replacement. WAR should be used as a guidepost. As analysts, we should always strive to find the “why” behind the number. In 2012, Trout’s edge was large because of easy to understand base-running excellence and “less” easy to understand defensive excellence. In 2013, Trout’s advantage in both was lesser. And, additionally, leading the league (and the majors) in all three slash line categories (not to mention finished 2nd in the league with 44 HR with 137 RBI) represents a truly special offensive campaign for Cabrera.

And, so, if I had to power to wave a magic wand (quite happy NOT to have that responsibility!), I’d give Trout the 2012 MVP and leave Miggy with the 2013 honors.

What about Trout’s other near-misses, in 2015 and 2018? Let’s look first at 2015 when he finished 2nd to the Blue Jays’ Josh Donaldson:

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Donaldson won the award easily (23 first-place votes compared to Trout’s 7) on the strength of leading the league in RBI and Runs while playing for a playoff-bound team. Still, in this case, it’s pretty clear to me that Trout had the superior campaign. The WAR differential, in this case, is attributable to a significantly superior OBP and SLG.

In 2018, Mookie Betts was a nearly unanimous winner: he got 28 first-place votes, with Trout and J.D. Martinez earning one each. In this case, it’s quite evident that the writers got it right. The two outfielders had very similar offensive numbers but Betts had the higher WAR due to his obvious Gold Glove brilliance patrolling the vast expanse of turf in Fenway Park’s right field.

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Finally, let’s look at Trout’s narrow MVP win in 2019, in which he got 17 first-place votes to Alex Bregman’s 13.

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This one was (deservedly) as close as the actual vote. Bregman’s WAR was higher due to superior defensive metrics but the edge was hardly overwhelming. It seems to me that Trout’s higher OPS+ deserved the nod.

And, so, overall, it’s arguable that Trout deserved one or two more MVP trophies. He won in three in real life which is pretty darned special.

One final note on this topic: it’s the “most valuable player” award, not the “best hitter” award. Incidentally, it’s not nearly as well known, but there is a “best hitter” award: it’s called the Hank Aaron Award, and it’s been around since 1999. Cabrera won it in both 2012 and 2013; Trout won in 2014 and 2019, years in which he was also the league’s MVP. Donaldson won it in 2015.

Why Mike Trout has Already Cleared the Hall of Fame Bar

In the title of this piece, I wrote the words that Mike Trout was “already” a future Hall of Famer based on what he accomplished before his 30th birthday. Needless to say, although 2021 has been a “lost” year due to his nagging calf injury, Trout has the rest of his 30’s ahead of him.

First, let’s acknowledge that, if one were to vote on Trout’s Hall of Fame candidacy today, instead of 15 years or so in the future, his counting stats (310 HR, 1,419 Hits) are a bit lacking. Still, in a parallel universe in which Trout decided to walk away from hundreds of millions of dollars and become a monk in Tibet, he would still be worthy of a Cooperstown plaque due to his extraordinary 9-year peak (excluding the 2021 campaign that is still in progress).

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The “spread” in the last two listed categories (OPS+ and WAR) is staggering and it’s a clear indicator that Trout was not simply the best player in baseball from 2012-2020 but was the best player by a country mile. Incidentally, the graphic above showed only position players but Trout also blows away the competition if you include pitchers. The highest pitching WAR from 2012-20 belongs to Max Scherzer, who sported a 52.5 WAR during these 9 seasons, far behind Trout’s 73.6.

What’s interesting about Trout’s statistical dominance is that it’s driven by his prowess with the bat. Although he established a deserved reputation as a rookie as a player who excelled in all facets of the game, the vast majority of his career value starting in 2013 has come from his excellence in the batter’s box. According to Baseball-Reference, Trout was 458 “Runs Above Average” from 2013-20; of those 458 “RAA,” 432 came as a batter. He’s actually had negative overall defensive metrics since his rookie campaign and has added a modest 24 RAA as a base-runner.

If you use other advanced metrics, Trout’s 1185 “Runs Created” from 2012-20 far exceeds the 985 of the man in 2nd place (Paul Goldschmidt). His 484.7 Rbat (“runs above average as a batter”) is over 200 ahead of the 2nd place finisher (Joey Votto, with 283.9).

Let’s add some perspective to what an all-time great batsman Mike Trout has been. These are the career leaders in OPS+ for players with at least 5,000 career plate appearances:

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With the obvious caveat that Barry Bonds is not in the Hall of Fame because of his links to Performance Enhancing Drugs, this is list of inner-circle Hall of Famers, plus Trout.

Comparing Trout, Mantle, Mays, Griffey

Anyway, Trout is far from finished. How will the last 9-10 years of his career unfold? Will he finish with a career like Willie Mays, who was brilliant in his 20’s and equally brilliant in his 30’s or will it be more akin to the careers of Ken Griffey Jr. and Mickey Mantle, who were historically great in their 20’s but merely above average in their 30’s (Griffey) or had a career shortened by injuries (Mantle). Allow me to show you a comparison between the four men in their 20’s:

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Trout more than holds his own against these all-time great Hall of Famers, hence why he’s destined for a plaque in Cooperstown no matter what he does in the rest of his career.

To illustrate my question: “Will he be another Mantle/Griffey or another Mays”, here is what the three Hall of Famers accomplished in their age-30 seasons and beyond:

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Trout is owed $334,050,000 from 2022-2030 in the remaining 9 years of his contract, guaranteeing that he’ll be on the field to pad his statistical resume. He’ll likely surpass 500 (or even 600) home runs and, despite the “disadvantage” of his prodigious walk rate, may eventually eclipse 3,000 hits. Hopefully, for Angels fans, there will be some postseason memories in the second half of Trout’s career that were lacking in the first. There will likely be more All-Star bids and perhaps another MVP (or more) to add to his trophy case.

Thanks for reading.

Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

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