On Tuesday, in a bit of a surprise, Mike Mussina was elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. In this, his 6th year of eligibility on the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) ballot, the longtime starting pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees earned 76.7% of the vote, just above the 75% minimum required to confer a Hall of Fame plaque.

Mussina was taken by surprise when he was called by the BBWAA’s Jack O’Connell. As it was throughout his 18-year MLB career, Mussina was the understudy, overshadowed by the bigger news of the day. The highlights were the first-ever unanimous election of former teammate Mariano Rivera, the “last chance” election of Edgar Martinez (in his 10th and final year on the ballot), and the election of the late Roy Halladay. The selection of Halladay was the the BBWAA’s first posthumous choice in a regular election since 1954.

Mussina was a durable and consistent starting pitcher, winning 270 career games in the rugged American League East. His career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is 82.9, which is better than two-thirds of all of the currently enshrined Hall of Fame pitchers. If you don’t like WAR, you can like this: since 1901, there have been 35 pitchers with at least 250 wins. Mussina’s won-loss percentage (.638) is 6th best.

Mussina, despite those sterling old-school and new-school credentials, was slow to get traction on the Hall of Fame ballot. He had the unfortunate timing of starting his career in 1991, just a few years after the last of the 300-game winners (Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson).

Mike Mussina’s Slog up the BBWAA Ladder

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Mussina debuted on the BBWAA ballot in 2014, the same year as Maddux and Glavine. Suffering by comparison, he got just 20% of the vote while Maddux and Glavine sailed into the Hall.

The next year, Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz all hit the ballot at the same time. Mussina had more wins than the latter two but Pedro had 3 Cy Youngs and a incredibly low 2.93 ERA in the PED era. Smoltz had the hybrid case of winning 213 games and saving 154 (a Dennis Eckersley-esque case). Up against this august trio, Mussina received 25% of the vote.

As the years have passed since Maddux, Glavine, Johnson, Martinez and Smoltz have been inducted into the Hall of Fame, Mussina’s Cooperstown case has received closer and more positive scrutiny. A year ago in January, in his 5th year on the ballot, the Moose got 63.5% of the vote (with 75% needed for induction).

This year, Mussina became just the eighth player in the last 50 years to jump from under 65% of the vote to over 75% in one voting cycle.

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Cooperstown Cred: Mike Mussina

  • Inducted to the Hall of Fame in 2019 (6th time on ballot, 76.7% of the vote)
  • Baltimore Orioles (1991-2000), New York Yankees (2001-08)
  • Career: 270-153 (.638 WL%), 3.68 ERA, 2,813 strikeouts
  • Career: 123 ERA+, 82.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
  • Won at least 15 games 11 times (all pitchers except Clemens who have done this are in the Hall of Fame)
  • Nine times in Top 6 of AL Cy Young Award voting
  • 5-time All-Star
  • 7-time Gold Glove Award winner
  • 82.9 career WAR, had previously been the highest for any pitcher not in the Hall of Fame except for Clemens

(Cover photo: CBS Sports/The Sporting News)

Portions of this piece were originally published on October 5th, 2017. It was updated in anticipation of the 2019 Hall of Fame vote announcement and updated again after Mussina’s election. 

Montoursville’s Favorite Son

Mike Mussina was born in Montoursville, Pennsylvania, a small town in central Pennsylvania, next door to Williamsport (the long-time home of the Little League World Series). Montoursville is about three hours north of Baltimore, where the town’s favorite son took to the mound for ten superb seasons.

The Orioles actually drafted Mussina twice, first in 1987 (he didn’t sign, enrolling at Stanford University instead) and then again in 1990 with the 20th overall pick. He pitched in Baltimore for ten years (from 1991-2000) before signing a free agent contract with the New York Yankees, for whom he would toil for the final eight seasons of his 18-year career.

Mussina’s hometown is sadly best known for its unique pain in the tragedy of the 1996 crash of TWA flight 800 off the coast of Long Island. In a town with a population of about 5,000 people, 21 of its residents (16 members of the High School French club and 5 chaperones) were killed in that doomed flight, which was heading to France.

“(Mussina) has never failed the town, even at its most desperate moment… The tragedy still renders this small town different from any other, sadder and more cautious when interacting with reporters and the outside world. Mussina was in Boston with the Orioles at the time. Days later, he would fly back for the memorial service, would help raise money for the memorial that stands next to the high school… Mussina wrote the names of the 21 victims inside his Orioles’ cap. The town holds on to that time, almost visibly. It holds on to Mussina, too. He is theirs. They are his.” 

— Filip Bondy, New York Daily News (Dec 3, 2000)

Stanford Cardinal

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The Hall of Fame voters sometimes miss players who fly under the radar, players who plied their trade for mediocre teams, players for whom there was never any buzz as a young player. None of that describes Mike Mussina.

The talented right-handed hurler known as Moose was famous before he ever signed with the Baltimore Orioles. As a freshman at Stanford, he led the Cardinal to its second consecutive College World Series championship.

A shoulder injury limited to only eight games as a sophomore but, as a junior, Mussina rebounded with a 14-5 season in 20 starts. Stanford again advanced to the College World Series, losing in the semifinals to the eventual champion Georgia Bulldogs. Mussina was named an All-American for his work as a junior.

After three years in college, Mussina was now ready for professional baseball. He was the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft.

Baltimore Orioles: 1991-2000

Mussina was in the major leagues less than 14 months after being drafted and, in 1992, his sophomore campaign, emerged as one of the best young pitchers in the major leagues. He went 8-1 in his first 11 starts, giving up one run or less in 6 of them. In his 17th start of the season, Mussina pitched a one-hit shutout with 10 strikeouts.

Moose went 18-5 with a 2.54 ERA in ’92 and wound up finishing 4th in the A.L. Cy Young Award voting. By WAR (8.2), it was the best season of his career.

In 1995, the Orioles’ ace led the majors with 19 wins. The players’ strike shortened the season to 144 games, costing Mussina 4 starts and likely his first 20-win season.

At the time of the crash of TWA flight 800 in 1996, the 27-year old Mussina was a 3-time All-Star who had finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young Award three times. It is natural and human that, when a national tragedy occurs, links to professional sports and its players are revealed. Mussina’s pain, shared by all of the past and present residents of Montoursville, became a national story.

Mussina’s star continued to rise early in 1997. On May 30, he had a perfect game going against the Cleveland Indians with one out in the top of the 9th inning. The perfecto was broken up by Sandy Alomar Jr. Moose struck out the next two batters to settle for a one-hit shutout with 10 strikeouts. Mussina made his 4th All-Star team and established himself as a postseason stud in October, even though the O’s fell short of the World Series.

It was in 1999 that Mussina came closest to winning the American League’s Cy Young Award. He went 18-7 with a 3.50 ERA. Even though he finished 2nd, he wasn’t really “close” to winning. Pedro Martinez had a remarkable season, going 23-4 with a 2.07. Pedro won the Cy Young trophy unanimously.

By wins and losses, 2000 was Mussina’s worst campaign in Baltimore. He went 11-15 but still posted a 3.79 ERA (an excellent number during the PED era).

Baltimore Sun

New York Yankees: 2001-2008

After 10 superb seasons in Baltimore, Mike Mussina pitched for his final 8 seasons with the most storied franchise in the sport and yet he still managed to fly under the radar. From 1998-2000 (while he was still with Baltimore) I was the Coordinating Producer of ESPN’s Up Close. We never were able to book Mussina to our show and we were probably better off for it. Moose was the quiet type, considered by many in the industry to be a dry interview. Even though he was a star player during my ESPN years, I had to go to YouTube while writing this piece to remind myself what his voice sounded like.

Mussina, in his first season in the Bronx, had another brush with perfection, losing a perfect game when he was literally one strike away. The Red Sox Carl Everett broke it up with a single. Moose retired the next batter to finish with a 1-0 victory, punctuated by 13 strikeouts. Mussina went 17-11 with a 3.15 ERA in his inaugural campaign in the Bronx. He finished 5th in the Cy Young vote and, as we’ll see shortly, might have won it if his Bronx Bombing teammates had given him the same level of run support as they gave his 20-win teammate, Roger Clemens.

With the Yankees, Mussina wasn’t the same consistent ace that he had been in Baltimore. From 2002-07, his ERA was a middling 4.12 (108 ERA+, or about 8 percent above league average).

Moose, however, retired on the top of his game after the 2008 season, at the age of 39. He won 20 games for the first and only time in his 18-year career in his final campaign. In typical under the radar fashion, Mussina actually made the decision to hang up his spikes before the season began but kept it to himself, not wanting any “last season” hoopla.

Of course, that decision came with a consequence: he stopped pitching just 30 wins shy of the 300-win mark, a milestone which almost certainly would have punched his ticket to Cooperstown (more on this later). This is how he explained that decision:

“I have young children and they’re getting involved with things. I’ve been away a long time and I want to be involved more. I’m certainly not getting younger, they’re not getting younger and you can’t get that time back. It’s just the right time for me… I didn’t want to be one of those guys that bounces all over the place. That’s not how I feel about the game. If I can’t contribute at the level I want to contribute at, then someone else should be doing it.”

— Mike Mussina (November 20, 2008)

Simply put, Mike Mussina was ready to go home to Montoursville.

Did you Notice? Mussina was a Top Postseason Pitcher

When people think about the best postseason pitchers of 1990’s and 2000’s, Mike Mussina’s name doesn’t immediately float to the front of the brain. The names that come to mind are Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, and Jack Morris.

Because they all own rings, Randy Johnson, Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, David Cone and Orlando Hernandez also come to mind.

Mike Mussina’s teams never won the World Series which obscures the fact that he had some big games in October. In 1997, with the Orioles, Mussina logged a 1.24 ERA in four starts. He was the winner in both Games 1 and 4 of the ALDS against the Seattle Mariners before being credited with two no-decisions in Games 3 and 6 of the ALCS against the Cleveland Indians.

In Game 2 of the ALCS, Mussina authored a masterpiece, tossing 7 innings of one-run ball, giving up 3 hits while striking out 15, a record for the LCS. It wasn’t good enough as the Tribe won in 12 innings. In Game 6, Moose was even better. He went 8 scoreless innings, giving up 1 hit while fanning 10. Unfortunately, the Orioles were also blanked and lost 1-0 in 11 innings.

Mike Mussina’s Postseason Efforts with the Yankees

In 2001, Moose helped pitch the New York Yankees into the Fall Classic. After stumbling in Game 1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Mussina tossed 8 innings of 2-run ball in Game 5, which the Yankees would win in the 12th.

In 2003, the Yankees had Roger Clemens on the bump against Pedro Martinez and the Boston Red Sox in Game 7 of the ALCS. The Sox scored 3 runs off Clemens in the first three innings. In the top of the 4th, Clemens gave up a home run, walk and single. Manager Joe Torre had seen enough, summoning Mussina from the bullpen on 2 days of rest. With runners on 1st and 3rd and no outs, the game was ready to get out of control.

Moose came in, entering a high-pressure situation in his first relief appearance ever. Mussina struck out Jason Varitek and then got Johnny Damon to hit into an inning-ending double play. Mussina tossed two more scoreless innings to keep the game in range. The Yankees won in 11 innings on Aaron Boone‘s famous walk-off home run.

mlb.com

For the World Series, Mussina was pushed back to Game 3 because of his bullpen work in the ALCS. With the series tied at 3, Moose outpointed the Florida Marlins’ Josh Beckett; Mussina tossed 7 innings of 1-run ball. The Yankees won 6-1. If the Yankees had managed to win any of the next three games, Mussina would have gotten the ball for Game 7 but, instead, the Marlins swept those games and won the Fall Classic.

For his career, Mussina’s first two and last three postseason outings were nothing to write home about. In between, however, he posted a 2.74 ERA in 18 outings.

Why Mike Mussina was previously overlooked by the Hall of Fame Voters

How in the world did a pitcher who won 270 games, who was famous before he ever appeared in the major leagues, pitched in the big media market in New York and went out in style in his swan song campaign earn so little respect from the BBWAA voters? When he first appeared on the ballot in 2014, Mike Mussina received just over 20% of the vote.

Mussina’s career is filled with “almosts” or “came close to’s.” He came close to 300 wins (finishing with 270). Mussina often came close to 20 wins, winning between 17 to 19 games in seven different seasons. He came close to winning many Cy Young Awards, finishing in the top six in 9 different seasons. Moose almost had two perfect games. He came close to winning the World Series, finishing on two pennant winners that lost the Fall Classic.

Besides the “almosts,” especially falling shy of 300 wins, I can think of three reasons that Mussina took awhile to gain traction among the Hall of Fame voters. The first was his poor timing. As I mentioned at the top of the piece, there was an overwhelming amount of competition among starting pitchers on the first two ballots in which he was eligible.

Sabermetric pioneer and Hall of Fame expert Bill James pointed out decades ago that most writers like to balance their ballots with a mix of pitchers and hitters in the same ratio that you might fashion the building of a roster. So Mussina (and Schilling) languished in the shadow of their more luminous contemporaries (which includes the PED linked Clemens as well).

The second reason I think Mussina was overlooked is that, while 270 wins and a .638 winning percentage are very impressive numbers, it is also true that he had the luxury of pitching for excellent teams for most of his career. The Baltimore Orioles won an average of 85 games per season (adjusted for the strike of 1994-1995) in Mussina’s nine years there. In his eight seasons in New York, the Yankees averaged 97 wins per year.

So, for Mussina’s career, his teams won an average of over 90 games, which certainly boosted his win totals. In his 537 career games (all but one of which was a starting assignment), his teams scored an average of 5.3 runs per nine innings, which is a half a run per game better than the league average during that time.

The third reason is that there are some writers (most likely older writers) who don’t like the fact that he only won 20 games once in his career and that he had a career ERA of 3.68, which would be the 3rd highest for any pitcher in the Hall of Fame. It is a truthful generalization that, on balance, older writers put more stock in wins and losses and younger writers look more closely at advanced metrics such as ERA+, WAR or FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).

Putting Context into Mike Mussina’s High ERA and Lack of 300 Wins

What some people likely overlook regarding Moose’s high ERA is that he pitched his entire career in the American League East, with DH’s and many PED-using players. His career ERA+ (which adjusts for ballpark effects and is relative to the overall league ERA for each year in question) is 123 and that figure is better than the mark posted by 36 pitchers already in possession of Hall of Fame plaques. The list of pitchers with an ERA+ worse than Mussina’s career mark includes luminaries such as Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton, Robin Roberts, Nolan Ryan and Glavine.

Regarding Mussina’s personal decision to stop his career 30 wins short of the 300-win finish line, it should be noted that, in the history of baseball, only thirteen pitchers achieved their 300th career victory by their age 39 season. Only two of them (Maddux and Carlton) managed to accomplish this in the last 80 years. Six of the thirteen pitched in the 19th century.

Moose’s 270 wins through this age 39 season are 16th most all time among pitchers who debuted in 1901 or later and better than the mark posted by 35 Hall of Fame starting pitchers.

Mussina vs. Glavine

Finally, to make the case for Mike Mussina, let’s take a look at Moose and a contemporary from the opposing league, Tom Glavine. Here are their career numbers side by side:

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Gulp: Glavine started 146 more games, tossed about 850 more innings, pitched most of his career for a perennial division champion (the Atlanta Braves), and won just 35 more games than Mussina. In addition, Moose struck out more batters despite dramatically fewer innings pitched. If you look at these two side by side, the only rational argument that Glavine is a Hall of Famer and Mussina isn’t rests on Glavine’s two Cy Young Awards and one World Series Championship. With respect to their regular season numbers, Mussina’s are clearly superior.

Through his age 39 season, Glavine had 275 wins, only 5 more than Mussina’s final total. Glavine got to 300 wins because he decided to pitch for three more years. In those seasons he won 30 games and posted a league-average 4.33 ERA. Did it make any sense that one pitcher was a Hall of Famer and the other wasn’t based solely on three mediocre seasons in his 40’s? No, it doesn’t make sense. Both pitchers should be in the Hall of Fame and now they are.

How Many Hall of Fame pitchers should we have from the 1990’s/2000’s?

With Mussina and Curt Schilling, there were two clear cut Hall of Fame pitchers waiting to be inducted but they both were a little slow to catch on. Maybe they weren’t as great as the five recent inductees but they were still easily in the top 10 among all pitchers from the 1990’s and the 2000’s.

So the question is, what’s the right number of Hall of Fame starting pitchers from a two-decade era?

Well, a good way to answer that question is to look at previous 20-year periods in history. Obviously, many players had careers that started in one of these 20 year periods and ended in a different one but I’ve put those pitchers in the “era” that represents the best part of their career.

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Well, it sure seems like there should be room for at least 3 to 4 more starting pitchers from the 90’s and 00’s. I say “at least” because there are now 30 teams in Major League Baseball. Until the 1960’s there were only 16.

One of the most important things that a Hall of Fame voter can do when evaluating the candidacy of a player is to look at each individual season or a collection of seasons and determine where that player ranked among all others or specifically for his particular position. In the case we’re looking at now, it’s a question of how Mussina ranked among starting pitchers for each of his eighteen seasons.

Mussina was under the radar for so long because he competed in the same era as four pitchers who are in the all-time great category (Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez). Since we’ve established that there is, from a historical perspective, plenty of “room” for more starting pitchers from the 1990-2000 decades, then we can agree that Mussina is worthy of his Cooperstown plaque if we can demonstrate he was one of the two or three best from those years who is not already in the Hall (excluding the PED-tainted Clemens).

How Mike Mussina Compares to his Peers

Let’s take a look at Mike Mussina year-by-year (skipping his rare sub-par campaigns) and compare him to his peers in the American League.

A year ago I created a “Cooperstown Cred” rating system for pitchers. The rankings are based on a blended average of pitcher ranks in a dozen different statistical categories: Wins, W-L%, Strikeouts, Complete Games, Shutouts, Quality Starts, Innings Pitched, WAR, ERA+, opposing batter OPS+, BAA (Batting Average Against), WHIP, SO/BB, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and WPA (Wins Probability Added).

See the Glossary for explanations of some of these categories if you’re not familiar with them. In the last column on the right side of this table, the comments are my own.

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Let’s unpack this for a moment. Needless to say, these are my year by year pitcher rankings and you may not agree with them. That of course is the whole point of the Hall of Fame debate. I looked at 12 categories that I deem relevant (yes, including Wins to the “kill the win” crowd) and came up with a a objective ranking based on the subjective methodology that I created.

It’s my opinion that Mussina deserved the 2001 A.L. Cy Young Award and deserved to finish 2nd on three other occasions (to Clemens, Johnson and Martinez). Thus, in a parallel universe without the Rocket, the Big Unit or Pedro, Mussina would have deserved 4 Cy Young Awards. In addition, there were three other seasons in which, by my methodology, Moose was the second best A.L. Pitcher not named Clemens, Johnson or Martinez. That’s my opinion.

If you’re the best or second best pitcher in your league not named Clemens, Johnson or Martinez in seven different seasons, you’re a Hall of Famer in my book.

In my opinion (based on the methodology) Mussina was one of the top 6 pitchers in the league 10 different times in his 18-year career. Not coincidentally, and easier to check for yourself, Moose was in the top 10 in both WAR and ERA+ in the American League in 11 different seasons. By the way, this is not dramatically different from the actual Cy Young Award votes, which placed him among the top 6 in the A.L. 9 different times. Considering that fact, it’s surprising that people were still debating Mussina’s worthiness for a Cooperstown plaque.

Nit-picking the Cooperstown Cred Rankings

Let me address two seasons where one might quibble with my rankings. In 2000, I have Mike Mussina as the 2nd best A.L. pitcher despite a 11-15 record. First of all, this was not a good Orioles squad; they only provided run support of 3.4 runs per start. In that season, Moose was 1st in the league in innings pitched, 2nd in WHIP, 3rd in WAR, 3rd in strikeouts, 3rd in SO/BB ratio, 3rd in Quality Starts, 3rd in WPA and 5th in ERA+.

In 2001, where he deserved (in my opinion) to win the A.L. Cy Young Award, he actually finished behind the winner (teammate Roger Clemens), Mark Mulder, Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer, despite being tops in multiple categories. With respect to Clemens (who went 20-3), the Rocket received 5.7 runs per start from his Yankees teammates while Moose only got 4.2 runs per start, leading to a less thrilling 17-11 record.

Mulder and Moyer each also won 20 games (which is why they finished ahead of Mussina) while Garcia went 18-6 with a league-leading 3.05 ERA. Garcia’s ERA was better than Mussina’s 3.15 mark, but Mussina pitched in Yankee Stadium while Garcia toiled in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

Mike Mussina’s Consistency

You don’t have to take my word for it, that Mussina was consistently good even if rarely the best in his league. Although he never led the A.L. in ERA, Mussina was in the top 10 in the league 11 times. Is that average, good or great?

In a variation of a graphic I shared in my piece about Andy Pettitte, let’s take a look at all pitchers who debuted in 1946 or later who made the top 10 of their league at least 7 times plus the number of Top 10’s for all currently enshrined Hall of Fame starters (again, for those debuting in ’46 or later).

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Well, sports fans, a grand total of six starting pitchers who debuted in 1946 or later have made the top 10 of their league in ERA 10 times or more. Incidentally, in 10 of the 11 seasons in which Mussina was a top 10 ERA pitcher, he was actually in the top 6. For a pitcher spending his entire career in the A.L. East, this is very impressive and a huge counterweight to the complaint that his 3.68 career ERA was too high.

Mussina’s place on this list is a significant Cooperstown credential.

The Best of 1990-2009

ERA, of course, is just one statistic. Here is a look at the full career stats of 12 pitchers who pitched primarily in the 20 years encompassing 1990-2009 who had a WAR of 60 or above.

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The numbers speak for themselves.

Anyway, even if you put Clemens and Schilling into the Hall to join Mussina and Halladay, that would bring us to a total of 9 pitchers from the 1990-2009 era, which is still less than the right number compared to the past, even without accounting for the fact that there are more teams now than there were in the earlier history of the game. Honestly, 9 pitchers from this era should be the absolute bare minimum.

Mike Mussina Makes it to Cooperstown in 2019

This summer in Cooperstown, Mussina will take the stage with Rivera, Martinez, Lee Smith and Harold Baines in what promises to be an emotional induction ceremony, especially because of the induction of Halladay, whose family will have to stand in for him.

Mussina, as noted earlier, was surprised to get the call for 2019.

“It caught me off guard quite a bit. I want say thank you to the 20 percent that voted for me that first year that kept me on the ballot so I could work my way up slowly. It’s a tremendous honor. It’s been a long time since I sat in a press conference with all these cameras flashing in New York. It’s just as exciting as it was the first time I came. I’m thrilled to be considered with the other great players in the game, with the guys I’m sitting with.”

— Mike Mussina, at the Hall of Fame Press Conference (Jan. 23, 2019)

One of the questions Mussina faced on election day and thereafter was whether he would prefer a Yankees or Orioles logo on the cap on his Cooperstown plaque. Considering that he split his MLB time equally between the two teams, Moose was reluctant to choose either team over the other. Ultimately, as Maddux did a few years ago, Mussina chose to go into the Hall without a team logo. The Halladay family made the same decision regarding his plaque, preferring not to prioritize either Toronto or Philadelphia.

Mussina will be on stage with baseball’s living legends this summer. The pitcher who flew under the radar for so much of his career will finally get his moment in the spotlight.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Chris Bodig

One thought on “Mike Mussina Joins a Quartet of 2019 BBWAA Hall of Famers”

  1. We’re it not for Peter Angelo’s, and his refusal to give Mussina more than 3 years on a contract, Mike would have gone in as an Oriole. We’re it not for NY’s refusal to give him the ball for the first games of many playoff series, he likely would have a ring.

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