Virtual Ballot: 10 Picks for Cooperstown

On Tuesday, live on the MLB Network at 6:00p ET, three or four new members of the Class of 2019 for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum will be announced. I am not a Hall of Fame voter and almost certainly never will be but I’ll stack the number of hours I spend thinking and writing about the Hall of Fame with almost every voting member of the BBWAA.

Anyway, with all lack of humility, I hereby submit the virtual Cooperstown Cred ballot for the Hall of Fame Class of 2019. Just as the writers are limited to 10 selections, I’ll do the same. However, I will also indicate which candidates outside of the top 10 that I also feel deserve a Cooperstown plaque in the future.

I am listing these players in order and, when available, sharing links to pieces I’ve written about them on Cooperstown Cred.

(cover photo: Sports Illustrated/Associated Press)

1. Mariano Rivera  – RP (1st year on BBWAA Ballot)

• New York Yankees (1995-2013)
• Career: 652 saves, 2.21 ERA, 205 ERA+, 56.3 WAR
• Postseason career: 8-1, 42 saves, 0.70 ERA in 141 IP (won 5 championships)
• 13-time All-Star

The question about Mariano Rivera, the sublime longtime closer for the New York Yankees, is not whether he will make the Hall of Fame but whether he will be the first player in history to receive 100% of the vote.

Rivera is the all-time leader in saves (652) and park-adjusted ERA+ (205). Mariano’s actual career ERA (2.21) translates to a 205 ERA+, which means that he was more than twice as good as the average pitcher when ballpark and generational factors are taken into account.

The truth is that, for me, Rivera would be a first-ballot Hall of Famer even if his regular season numbers were far more pedestrian (if he had half the saves and an ERA over 3.00). His performance in the postseason is so far superior to any other player in baseball history that his October exploits alone are worthy of a Cooperstown plaque.

By the way, I do not think Rivera was a better player than Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens. I listed Rivera first because, if I could put one person into the Hall of Fame from the current ballot and nobody else would ever get in, I would choose Rivera without hesitation. Besides the fact that Rivera had more impact on winning championships than any other player of the LCS generation (since 1969), he is the best at his position (relief pitcher) by a country mile.

Not only that, if you made a “Hall of Class,” Mariano Rivera would be at the head of it. For more on why Rivera is an “inner circle” Hall of Famer, you can click here.

2. Barry Bonds  – LF (7th year on BBWAA ballot) (56% in 2018)

• Pirates (1986-92), Giants (1993-2007)
• Career: 762 HR, 1,996 RBI, 514 SB, 182 OPS+, 162.8 WAR
• Owns career (762) and single-season (73) records for home runs
• 7-time N.L. MVP, 14-time All-Star
• 8-time Gold Glove Award Winner, 12-time Silver Slugger

I have always been in favor of electing Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens to the Hall of Fame, despite their almost certain use of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). Bonds is, simply put, the best baseball player I have ever witnessed with my own eyes.

Bonds was so feared that he was walked intentionally 688 times in his career. That’s more IBBs than the grand total of all walks received by 50 different Hall off Fame position players. Bonds MLB-highest career total of 2,558 bases on balls is 368 more than the player with the second most, Rickey Henderson.

The prevailing narrative about Bonds’ use of PEDs is that he was irritated by all of the attention Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were receiving in 1998 during their historic run at Roger Maris’ single-season home run record. If you believe that Bonds started using PEDs in 1999, the year after the Great Home Run Chase, here is how his career statistics at the time (through ’98) stack up against other Hall of Fame outfielders that could hit with power and run a bit.

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When you consider the fact that, at the age of 34, Bonds was already the only player in the history of baseball to record 400 home runs and 400 stolen bases, he would have been a first ballot Hall of Famer if he retired to become a monk in Tibet and never sniffed a PED.

3. Roger Clemens  – SP (7th year on BBWAA ballot) (57% in 2018)

• Red Sox (1984-96), Blue Jays (1997-98), Yankees (1999-2003, ’07), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 354-184 (.658 WL%), 3.12 ERA, 4,672 SO, 143 ERA+, 139.0 WAR
• Only pitcher ever to strike out 20 batters in a game twice
• 1986 A.L. MVP, 7-time Cy Young Award Winner, 11-time All-Star

The story with Roger Clemens is essentially the same as it is with Bonds although, for me personally, I can’t say he’s necessarily the best pitcher I ever saw. Clearly, the overall volume of work is vastly superior to any other hurlers of his generation but Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson at their best could certainly give the Rocket a run for his money.

Anyway, nobody is certain when Clemens started using PEDs (or if he did with absolute certainty). According to his trainer with the Toronto Blue Jays (Brian McNamee), he didn’t start injecting Clemens with Winstrol until 1998, Clemens’ second season with the Blue Jays. The year is kind of important. Clemens had arguably the best season of his career in 1997 (21-7, 2.05 ERA), the year before he allegedly started using.

For the sake of argument, take a look at Clemens’ career numbers through the 1996 season (his last year with the Boston Red Sox) and compare them to the entire career of the late Roy Halladay, who is also on the Hall of Fame ballot this year and was briefly Clemens’ teammate in 1998.

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Based on the early votes revealed by Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker, Halladay is a virtual lock to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer and deservedly so (see below). And yet Clemens has statistics to match Halladay’s entire career based solely on his Red Sox years from 1984-96. Besides the 3 Cy Young Awards, Clemens also owned a MVP trophy and had already had two separate games in which he struck out 20 batters.

If Clemens had decided to hang up his spikes after the 1996 season and become a rancher in Texas, he would have been a Hall of Famer anyway.

I understand that there is a significant bloc of Hall of Fame voters who don’t want to “reward” players they consider to be “cheaters” with a Cooperstown plaque. I get it. But the truth is that the game of baseball was very permissive at the time. There was no drug testing policy. The media paid scant attention to the issue for years.

I don’t know if Bonds or Clemens will cross the finish line and get over 75% of the vote in the next few seasons. It looks like it’s going to be really close.

For more on the annual conundrum of what to do about Bonds and Clemens, click here.

4. Curt Schilling  – SP (7th year on BBWAA ball0t) (51% in 2018)

• Orioles (1988-90), Astros (1991), Phillies (1992-2000). D’Backs (2000-03), Red Sox (2004-07)
• Career: 216-146 (.597 WL%), 3.46 ERA, 3,116 SO, 127 ERA+, 80.6 WAR
• Postseason career: 11-2, 2.23 ERA in 133.1 IP (won 3 championships)
• 6-time All-Star

Curt Schilling has had to wait for his call to the Hall of Fame because he finished his career with only 216 wins, because he never won a Cy Young Award and, in part, because of his itchy Twitter fingers (more about that here).

It doesn’t change the fact that Schilling was a dominant pitcher, especially in his 30’s, and arguably the best postseason starting pitcher in the last 50 years. Also, there is this: Schilling’s career 4.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the best in MLB since 1884 (min 1,500 IP). That’s 1884 (President Chester Arthur), not 1984 (Ronald Reagan).

Finally, Schilling’s career WAR of 80.6 is the third best for any pitcher not already enshrined into the Hall of Fame except for Clemens and our next player on the ballot.

5. Mike Mussina  – SP (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (63.5% in 2018)

• Orioles (1991-2000), Yankees (2001-08)
• Career: 270-153 (.638 WL%), 3.68 ERA, 2,813 SO, 123 ERA+, 82.9 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 7-time Gold Glove Award winner

As we’ve just noted, only Clemens has a higher career WAR than Mike Mussina among pitchers currently without Cooperstown plaques. Overshadowed by a generation of superstar pitchers who won multiple Cy Youngs (Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Martinez and Tom Glavine), the soft-spoken Mussina was easy to overlook.

To the sabermetrically disinclined, Moose’s 3.68 ERA is unsightly. His lack of a Cy Young bothered some. Others dismissed his 270 wins as a byproduct of pitching for Orioles and Yankees teams that typically won 90 games per season.

What these folks missed (until now) is that, thanks to a career pitching in the AL East and the PED era, Mussina’s ERA translates to a 123 ERA+ (23% above league average). That’s better than 35 enshrined Hall of Fame starters, including all-time greats Bob Feller, Warren Spahn, and Steve Carlton.

Mussina had a “came really close” kind of career. He pitched four one-hitters in his career, losing two perfect games in the 9th inning. Moose won 19 games twice, never reaching the magical 20-win mark until his final campaign in 2008.

He never won a World Series, despite some superb postseason performances.

Mussina’s entire career was just a bit under the radar (more on that here) but, in totality, he was superb. Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker has Mussina currently polling at over 80% of the vote. Since the early vote always tends to be a little higher than the actual final vote, it’s a 50-50 proposition whether Moose will clear the 75% bar for 2019. If he’s not inducted into the Hall on this voting cycle, he’s a cinch for 2020.

6. Roy Halladay – SP (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Blue Jays (1998-2009), Phillies (2010-13)
• Career: 203-105 (.659 WL%), 3.38 ERA, 2,117 SO, 131 ERA+, 65.5 WAR
• 2-time Cy Young Award Winner, 8-time All-Star
• Won 20 or more games 3 times
• Tossed perfect game in regular season and no-hitter in NLDS for 2010 Phillies

The late Roy “Doc” Halladay will almost certainly become the first player voted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA posthumously since Rabbit Maranville 65 years ago. Halladay perished in a self-piloted plane crash on November 7, 2017. Roberto Clemente, who passed away 46 years ago yesterday, also in a plane crash, was inducted by a special election shortly after his death.

In Thibodaux’s tracker, Halladay is polling at around 95%. Statistically speaking, this makes him a shoe-in for a Hall of Fame plaque this summer. Halladay’s family will be in Cooperstown to celebrate his great career in what is sure to be a bittersweet moment.

The Hall of Fame case for the Blue Jays and Phillies right-hander is pretty clearly defined in the bullet points listed above. Beyond that, I invite you to take a deeper look by clicking here.

7. Edgar Martinez  – 3B/DH (10th year on the BBWAA ballot) (70% in 2018)

• Seattle Mariners (1987-2004)
• Career: .312 BA, 309 HR, 1,261 RBI, 2,247 Hits, 147 OPS+, 68.4 WAR
• .418 career on-base% (4th best in last 50 years) (min 5,000 PA)
• 7-time All-Star, 5-time Silver Slugger

Edgar Martinez was born in New York City but he was raised in Puerto Rico, his passion for baseball inspired by watching the great Clemente lead the Pittsburgh Pirates to the World Series title in 1971 when young Edgar was an impressionable 8-year old niño.

Martinez, who spent all 18 of his MLB seasons with the Seattle Mariners, has the 5th highest OPS+ of any player not inducted into the Hall of Fame (minimum 8,000 plate appearances). The only players with higher are the PED-tainted Bonds and Manny Ramirez along with the still-active Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera.

Just four years ago, Edgar looked dead in the BBWAA water, getting just 27% of the vote in 2015. However, as explained here, a new-found respect for his greatness started to permeate throughout the voting electorate over the past few years. In his 10th and final year of eligibility, he’s now polling at over 90% on Thibodaux’s Tracker and is a near-certainty to be inducted into the Hall of Fame with the Class of 2019.

Edgar was a hitting savant, always one of the toughest outs in the game, a hitter who earned the praise and respect of the very best pitchers. His career batting average was .312, his OPS was .933. Look at how he fared against some of the top hurlers in the game.

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8. Fred McGriff  – 1B (9th year on the BBWAA ballot) (23% in 2018)

• Blue Jays (1986-90), Padres (1991-93), Braves (1993-97), Devil Rays (1998-2001, ’04), Cubs (2001-02), Dodgers (2003)
• Career: .284 BA, 493 HR, 1,550 RBI, 2,490 Hits, 134 OPS+, 52.6 WAR
• .303, 10 HR, 37 RBI, .917 OPS in 50 post-season games
• 5-time All-Star, 3-time Silver Slugger

Fred McGriff, the left-handed hitting slugger for the six different teams, will not make it into the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA. This is his 10th and final year on the ballot and the Crime Dog has never received more than 24% of the vote.

McGriff is probably the most significant Cooperstown casualty of the devalued home run and PED era. Thanks in part to the players’ strike of 1994-95, McGriff fell 7 taters shy of the magic number of 500 but it’s not certain that even having reached that plateau would have given him a plaque in Cooperstown.

McGriff’s 493 home runs are just the 5th most on the current ballot. On the all-time home run list, he’s behind Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield. What do those four players have in common? I’ll give you a hint. Give me a “P”, etc…

Of the many statistical arguments in favor of McGriff’s Cooperstown candidacy, the best is from Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated. Verducci noted that there are 40 players in the history of baseball with at least 10,000 plate appearances and an OPS+ of at least 129 (McGriff’s is 134). The only players among those 40 who are not in the Hall of Fame are Bonds, Pujols, David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, Sheffield, and Rafael Palmeiro. Those six are either PED-linked or not yet eligible for the Hall.

The Crime Dog’s career OPS+ is better than the marks posted by first ballot inductees Dave Winfield, Carl Yastrzemski, and Eddie Murray.

Besides being overshadowed by PED power bats, McGriff has also had a problem of being squeezed by the “Rule of 10” that limits writers to 10 votes for years. When it comes to Bonds and Clemens, more than half of the electorate are checking their names every year, effectively turning the “Rule of 10” into the “Rule of 8” for everyone else. In a PED-free universe, Bonds and Clemens would have been first ballot choices in 2013. Instead, they’re sucking up two votes every year.

McGriff has had a big surge in voting support this year as writers who squeezed him off their ballots in the past are giving him a last hurrah, even if it won’t result in a Cooperstown plaque.

The understated nature of McGriff’s career is difficult to argue. So, every year I’ve included him on my Hall-worthy list and every year I’ve cut him. Except for this year, his final one on the ballot.

With four players from my Top 10 getting elected last year, and only two newcomers jumping into that group, there were two available spots for Hall-worthy candidates that I had previously ignored. McGriff gets the final one. It’s not going to help him get inducted — at least not on the writers’ ballot… But it does make me feel that I’ve righted a personal wrong, one created by a logjam.

— Dan Connolly (The Athletic, Dec. 27, 2018)

The potential good news for McGriff is that he’ll be eligible for the “Today’s Game” ballot in 2022. This is the modern version of the Veterans Committee. After 17 years of ignoring all living ballplayers, the Vets’ have elected Jack Morris, Alan Trammell, Lee Smith and Harold Baines in the last two years. What’s clear is that the members of these smaller committees (with 16 voters) value players who played for a long time and appear to be clear of PEDs.

Based on comments made by committee member Tony La Russa on the day after the vote, Baines was in part elected because of the belief that two players’ strikes cost him a chance at 3,000 hits. The strike of ’94-95 that likely cost McGriff 500 home runs should be a compelling argument for the 2022 committee.

For more on why McGriff is worthy of Cooperstown, I invite you to look further by clicking here.

9. Larry Walker  – RF (9th year on the BBWAA ballot) (34% in 2018)

• Expos (1989-94), Rockies (1995-2004), Cardinals (2004-05)
• Career: .313 BA, 383 HR, 1,311 RBI, 141 OPS+, 72.7 WAR
• 1997 MVP with Rockies (.366 BA, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 178 OPS+)
• 5-time All-Star, 7-time Gold Glove Award winner, 3-time Silver Slugger

I spent many years believing that Larry Walker was not a Hall of Famer. Although Walker’s rate stats are/were tremendous, I always put a heavy discount on them because of the 10 years that he spent in Coors Field.

In the summer of 2017, I did a deep, deep dive into the numbers and concluded that Walker took advantage of his home park in a huge way that none of his teammates ever did. At the same time, his road stats (.865 OPS) are still highly respectable and better than those posted by many Hall of Famers.

I believe in sabermetrics but do not ever feel bound by them. Walker’s 141 OPS+ is 41% better than league average and it takes the Coors effect into account. His high WAR (72.7) is based on superb defensive metrics (which are backed up by 7 Gold Gloves) and excellent base-running metrics (230 SB, only 76 CS).

For me, if a position player has a WAR of 70 or higher, you’d better figure out a really good reason why you think it’s misleading. I don’t see that here. Walker belongs in the Hall.

It may be too late but in these late years on the ballot, Walker is surging. He’s climbed up from 22% in 2017 to 34% in 2018. So far, Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker has reported 40 voter shifts from “no” to “yes” for the Canadian native, putting him at around 65% right now. That’s a number that will come down when the final vote is revealed. However, if Walker finishes in the high 50’s, it’s not inconceivable that he would get a massive final-year push in 2021.

10. Jeff Kent  – 2B (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (14.5% in 2018)

• Blue Jays (1992), Mets (1992-96), Indians (’96), Giants (1997-2002), Astros (2003-04), Dodgers (2005-08)
• Career: .290 BA, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 2,461 Hits, 123 OPS+, 55.4 WAR
• 377 home runs (most all-time for 2B)
• 2000 NL MVP (.334 BA, 33 HR, 125 RBI)
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger

I have always been simultaneously baffled that Jeff Kent has gotten no respect from the BBWAA over the last five years while also understanding why he hasn’t.

Why baffled? Kent has the most home runs all time for a second baseman. He has the third most RBI (behind Hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby and Nap Lajoie). His .500 career slugging percentage is second best only to Hornsby. His 560 doubles are fourth best to Craig Biggio, Lajoie and Charlie Gehringher (all Hall of Famers). In “RBat” (the Runs Above Average Batting component of WAR), he’s 6th, behind Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Lajoie, Joe Morgan and Gehringer. Again, all in the Hall of Fame.

Why do I understand it? Year after year, it’s been a packed ballot, baby! I haven’t had room for Kent in my virtual top 10 in any of the previous 5 ballots he’s been on. That’s how many good players are on the ballot each year.

There’s also the fact that Kent’s WAR is relatively low, thanks to a high double play rate and poor defensive metrics. Finally, it’s true that Kent was a late bloomer and Hall of Famer players usually imprint themselves into the brains of the BBWAA members early in their careers. Kent didn’t become a star until he was 29, when Giants manager Dusty Baker had the faith to put his new second baseman into the middle of the order.

For more on why I feel Kent belongs in the Hall of Fame, please click here. My opinion doesn’t change the fact that he’s never done better than 17% in the vote and is a long shot to make it.

Second Cut: Hall-Worthy but not Top 10 in 2019

If the Hall of Fame offered its members a “binary ballot” (where they could choose “yes” or “no” without a limit of 10 names per year), a great many voters would check many than 10.

Since my ballot is a virtual one, not a real one, allow me to share the names of the players who didn’t make my Top 10 but whom I believe are worthy of the Hall of Fame.

11. Scott Rolen  – 3B (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (11% in 2018)

• Phillies (1996-2002), Cardinals (2002-07), Blue Jays (2008-09), Reds (2009-12)
• Career: .281 BA, 316 HR, 1,287 RBI, 122 OPS+, 70.2 WAR
• 7-time All-Star, 8-time Gold Glove Award winner

As it is with Larry Walker, Scott Rolen is a WAR candidate (as I write about in more detail here). Both have a WAR over 70 and both are over that number based on superior defensive metrics, which are backed by Gold Glove hardware.

Rolen got 10% of the vote last year and appears to be trending up in 2019. As the ballot backlog dissipates in the next three years, there’s a chance that he’ll see some significant gains.

12. Gary Sheffield  – OF (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (11% in 2018)

• Brewers (1988-91), Padres (1992-93), Marlins (1993-98), Dodgers (1998-2001), Braves (2002-03), Yankees (2004-06), Tigers (2007-08), Mets (2009)
• Career: .292 BA, 509 HR, 1676 RBI, 2,689 Hits, 140 OPS+, 60.5 WAR
• 9-time All-Star, 5-time Silver Slugger

Thanks to a crowded ballot and an admitted use of PEDs, Gary Sheffield has never gotten more than 13% of the Hall of Fame vote. As a PED user, what makes Sheffield different from most of the others is that he admitted it right away and says he didn’t know that the “cream” he was using was a steroid.

After filling out in his early 20’s, Sheffield’s body type looked consistently rock solid but not outrageously so. I am inclined to believe that he was a one-time “oops” user. With PED users (proven or suspected) I look for authenticity. Sheffield had great power but never hit more than 43 home runs in a season. Could he have gone “Full Metal Sosa” and challenged 60 home runs? Certainly that’s possible.

What we know for sure is that he was a fantastic and highly feared hitter. His career WAR is destroyed by horrible defensive metrics. The only hitters with a higher offensive WAR” (oWAR) than Sheffield’s 80.8 who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Bonds, A-Rod, Derek Jeter, Pujols, Pete Rose, and Manny Ramirez.

Just using oWAR, Sheffield is ahead of Frank Thomas, Yastrzemski, Jim Thome, Reggie Jackson, Jeff Bagwell, Winfield, Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew. That’s a Hall of Famer to me. The only reason I don’t have him in my Top 10 is because of the ballot clog. Generally, I like to give the benefit of the “tiebreaker doubt” to players without PED links.

For more on Sheffield, click here.

13. Todd Helton  – 1B (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Colorado Rockies (1997-2013)
• Career: .316 BA, 369, 1,406 RBI, 2,519 Hits, 133 OPS+, 61.2 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove, 4-time Silver Slugger

I will admit, deciding whether Todd Helton belongs in the Hall of Fame or not makes my brain hurt a little bit, thanks to him having played all of the home games in his career at Coors Field.

Sabermetric pioneer Bill James think he’s a Hall of Famer, which would normally be good enough for me. This what James wrote in the 2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook:

“Helton’s numbers… are SO good that nobody knows what to do with them. Helton played not only in a very high-run era, but also in a hitter’s paradise. People know intuitively that his numbers are misleading and you need to let some of the air out of them, but they don’t know intuitively how much. 

But if you will pardon my saying, that’s what guys like me are good for. Guys like Tom Tango, John Dewan, Sean Forman and myself… we know how to handle THAT problem. We normalize everything for context all of the time.

Even if you adjust for the context, Todd Helton was a Hall of Famer.”

— Bill James (2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook)

On Baseball Reference, Helton’s top three “most similar” players based on “Similarity Scores” (a James invention) are Jeff Bagwell, Miguel Cabrera, and Edgar Martinez. That’s pretty great company although, remember, those three players didn’t spend half of their careers in Colorado.

Again, Bill James is somebody that I revere. He says that he’s accounted for the “Coors effect” with respect to Helton’s statistics. I took a deep dive into the numbers, using Forman’s “neutralized statistics” tool on Baseball Reference, and concluded that Helton is in fact worthy of the Hall of Fame.

14. Lance Berkman – 1B/OF(1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Astros (1999-2010), Yankees (2010), Cardinals (2011-12), Rangers (2013)
• Career: .293 BA, 366 HR, 1,234 RBI, .406 OBP, 144 OPS+, 52.1 WAR
• Career postseason: 9 HR, 41 RBI, .317 BA, .417 OBP, .532 SLG
• 6-time All-Star

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled Keep Lance Berkman on the Hall of Fame Ballot. And here I have him at #13. That’s the problem with the crowded ballot. If I were a real voter and I felt that checking Berkman’s name would keep him on the ballot for another year, I would do it. But, based on Thibodaux’s tracker, Berkman is going to be one-and-done, falling far below the 5% needed to stay on for 2020. The Big Puma only has received 2 out of the first 137 reported votes (which puts him at 1.5%).

Berkman only logged 7,814 plate appearances in his career, which keeps his counting stats a little light. But from a rate stat perspective, Fat Elvis could rake with the best. Unfortunately, he’ll soon join a long list of quality BBWAA first-ballot casualties.

15. Manny Ramirez  – OF (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (22% in 2018)

• Indians (1993-2000), Red Sox (2001-08), Dodgers (2008-10), White Sox (2010), Rays (2011)
• Career: .312 BA, 555 HR, 1,831 RBI, 2,574 Hits, 154 OPS+, 69.4 WAR
• 12-time All-Star, 9-time Silver Slugger

If it were based solely on his performance, of course Manny Ramirez would be a Hall of Famer. He would be #4 on my list behind Rivera, Bonds and Clemens if he had not tested positive for PEDs in 2009 and then again in 2011.

When it comes to PED users, authenticity is again the key for me. Was the player’s career authentically one of Hall of Fame caliber or a chemically enhanced farce? I’m inclined to believe the former. Manny could flat out hit. I have him pegged three spots below Sheffield only because of the two drug-related suspensions.

16. Andy Pettitte  – SP (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Yankees (1995-2003, ’07-’13), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 256-153 (.626 WL%), 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, 60.7 WAR
• Career postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA in 44 starts (won 5 championships)
• 3-time All-Star

Andy Pettitte is a guy who looked like a future Hall of Famer when watching him in the first three seasons of his career. In his sophomore campaign (1996), he was a 21-game winner (finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting) and a member of the World Champion New York Yankees. In 1997 the tall left-hander went 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA (good enough for a 156 OPS+ and 8.4 WAR).

The fact is, however, after 1997, Pettitte only had one season in which he was in the top 30 of all starting pitchers in WAR. That one season was 2005, with the Astros, when he went 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA (177 ERA+, 6.8 WAR). The timing of that great campaign was perfect; he helped Houston make the playoffs (barely) as the Wild Card team. The Astros subsequently won their first ever pennant.

Because the Yankees and Astros made the playoffs 14 times in his 18 MLB campaigns, Pettitte is the all-time postseason leader in games started (44) and thus, also leads in wins (19), innings (276.2) and strikeouts (183). His playoff ERA (3.81) mirrors almost precisely his regular season ERA (3.85).

If you put a gun to my head and made me the ultimate arbiter of Pettitte’s Cooperstown fate, I’d say “yes” but I’m not certain. Not being a top 30 in the majors in WAR for most of one’s career is not something that screams “Hall of Fame.”

On this current ballot, Pettitte suffers by comparison to Clemens, Mussina, Schilling and Halladay. He’ll look better in future years. There are no starting pitchers hitting the ballot between 2020-2024 that have superior Cooperstown credentials.

Other Very Good Players on the Ballot

These are all very good players but I’m personally not ready to call them Hall of Famers.

17. Billy Wagner (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (11% in 2018)

• Career: 422 Saves (86% success rate), 2.31 ERA, 187 ERA+, 27.8 WAR
• 7-time All-Star

Billy Wagner has some key things going for him. His career 2.31 ERA is the second best in the last 100 years to Rivera (for pitchers with a minimum of 750 innings pitched). Using the same minimum, his 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings are the best in the history of baseball. His career WHIP (walks + hits per 9 innings) is 0.998, second best in history to Hall of Famer Addie Joss.

So why is Wagner not in the Hall of Fame yet? The problem is the innings, as in only 903 pitched. Rivera threw 1,283.2 (to go with 652 saves). Trevor Hoffman threw 1,089.1 (along with 601 saves). Although the three closers were contemporaries, Wagner was much more of a “clean 9th inning” pitcher than the others (more details in this piece I wrote last year).

Let’s see if Wagner’s impressive rate stats hold up over the next five years as Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman start to approach his innings total.

18. Andruw Jones (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (7% in 2018)

• Braves (1996-2007), Dodgers (2008), Rangers (2009), White Sox (2010), Yankees (2011-12)
• Career: .254 BA, 434 HR, 1,289 RBI, 111 OPS+, 62.8 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove Award winner

On the surface, a center fielder with 10 Gold Gloves and over 400 home runs should be a Hall of Famer, right? Some people think so but not most of us. However, it looks like he has enough of a constituency to stay on the ballot for awhile. For my reasons why I don’t think Jones is a Hall of Famer, I invite you to take a look.

19. Omar Vizquel (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (37% in 2018)

• Mariners (1989-93), Indians (1994-2004), Giants (2005-08), Rangers (2009), White Sox (2010-11), Blue Jays (2012)
• Career: .272 BA, 80 HR, 951 RBI, 2,877 Hits, 82 OPS+, 45.6 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 11-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Highest fielding % of all-time for shortstops (min. 1,000 games)

Some people think Omar Vizquel was the second coming of Ozzie Smith. I don’t. He was an excellent fielder but all of the advanced metrics say that he wasn’t quite as good as the 11 Gold Gloves indicate. In his 24-year career, only once did Vizquel receive even one MVP vote. Please click here for more details on why Omar falls a bit short.

I have Omar one slot below Andruw here for the sole reason that, even though I’m suspicious of them, Jones has the defensive metrics to back up his Gold Gloves while Vizquel does not.

20. Roy Oswalt (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Astros (2001-10), Phillies (2010-11), Rangers (2012), Rockies (2013)
• Career: 163-102 (.615), 3.36 ERA, 127 ERA+, 50.0 WAR
• 3-time All-Star
• 5 times in Top 5 of N.L. Cy Young Voting

At the end of the 2007 season (his 7th in MLB, all with the Houston Astros), Roy Oswalt absolutely looked like a future Hall of Famer in the making. At the time, Oswalt had a 112-54 (.675) record with a 3.07 ERA, a robust 43% better than league average (based on his 143 ERA+). He was a two-time 20-game winner who had finished in the Top 5 of the Cy Young vote in five of his seven campaigns.

Oswalt had one more quality season (2008) and one more superb season (2010) but only managed to pitch 230.1 innings in his age 33-35 seasons while posting a 4.92 ERA. On a crowded Hall of Fame ballot, Oswalt’s “peak performance” career just doesn’t measure up. But he was really good.

21. Sammy Sosa (7th year on the BBWAA ballot) (8% in 2018)

• Rangers (1989), White Sox (1989-91), Cubs (1992-2004), Orioles (2005), Rangers (2007)
• Career: .273 BA, 609 HR, 1,667 RBI, 128 OPS+, 58.6 WAR

Amazingly, despite the 609 home runs, Sammy Sosa’s 58.6 WAR is only the 14th highest on the 2019 BBWAA ballot. If you need an excuse not to put him in your top 10 that is not PED related, there it is.

I have Sammy ranked so low here because I believe the thing that makes him a potential Hall of Famer (all the home runs) utterly lacks authenticity. Can you believe that, by the metrics that make up WAR, Sosa was a better defensive player than offensive player from 1995-97?

At the end of 1997 (his age 28 season), Sammy had 207 career home runs. Five years later, he had 499, which included three seasons of 60 or more. I believe those seasons were a fraud. Unlike Bonds and Clemens, Sosa didn’t have a “first career” that was remotely Hall of Fame worthy.

Best of the Rest

There are three other first-time Hall of Fame candidates that had really good careers but will be dumped from future ballots by finishing shy of the 5% required to stick around for another year.

Those three are shortstop Miguel Tejada and infielders Michael Young and Placido Polanco. All three are better than a small number of already enshrined Hall of Famers but all would be on the low end of any list involving players at their position. For more details about these three players, please enjoy my capsule looks at all 20 first-time candidates for Cooperstown.

Looking Ahead to 2020

At this point, it is a virtual certainty that Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay and Edgar Martinez will be inducted into the Hall of Fame Class of 2019. There’s about a 50-50 chance that Mike Mussina will join them. Also, among the players I listed in the Top 20, Fred McGriff will age off the ballot after 10 years and Lance Berkman will be dropped for getting less than 5% of the vote.

However you look at it, the 2020 ballot will be much less stacked than the current one. Other than Derek Jeter, the best candidates (ranked by WAR) are Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, and Cliff Lee.

Jeter will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Abreu, with 288 HR, 400 SB, a 128 OPS+ and a 60.0 WAR, is a sabermetric candidate who will probably get some support but not a lot. Giambi, a home run hitter who finished with “only” 440 home runs and admitted using PEDs, will be a first ballot casualty. So will Cliff Lee, who profiles similarly to Roy Oswalt, an excellent “one and done” pitcher on this year’s ballot.

If you’re reading this and making your own lists, I encourage you to rank the players in order, as I did. You don’t have to be scientific about it. Just go with your gut to make the exercise as simple as possible. Then, as players either hypothetically get inducted into the Hall or dropped from the ballot, you can move the remaining players up the list.

Anyway, I’m going to think positively and assume Mussina makes it in 2019. That would make my 2020 ballot as follows (with the right to change my mind):

1. Derek Jeter
2. Barry Bonds
3. Roger Clemens
4. Curt Schilling
5. Larry Walker
6. Jeff Kent
7. Scott Rolen
8. Gary Sheffield
9. Todd Helton
10. Manny Ramirez

Do you see how the backlog is easing? Ramirez was my 15th ranked player for 2019. On this hypothetical 2020 ballot, he makes the cut if Mussina is no longer around to vote for.

Jeter might be the only player inducted in 2020 although it’s possible Schilling will make a big final-season move with ballot space opened and no comparable “clean” pitchers on ballot. Also, Walker is making a big surge right now and it’s possible, just possible, that he vaults over 75% on a weaker ballot. Either way, Walker will not be on the 2021 ballot because his 10 years of eligibility end in 2020.

Coming in 2021

Let’s hedge our bets on Schilling and assume he falls short in 2020. In 2021, there are no obvious first-time Hall of Fame candidates, the best new entrants being pitchers Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle and outfielder Torii Hunter.

Here’s how this scenario could play out, keeping my list in the order that I put it this year.

1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Curt Schilling
4. Jeff Kent
5. Scott Rolen
6. Gary Sheffield
7. Todd Helton
8. Manny Ramirez
9. Andy Pettitte
10. Bobby Abreu or Tim Hudson or Billy Wagner or Andruw Jones or Omar Vizquel

Clearly, we can see how the road will start clearing for some of the candidates languishing at the bottom of the current ballot. I’m not a supporter of any of the candidates I’ve put in the #10 spot but I might change my mind. Regardless, the latter three players already have advocates. Vizquel in particular has a chance to make it into the Hall sooner rather than later thanks to the less clogged ballot.

In 2022, the top new candidates will be Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira and Jimmy Rollins. If they haven’t already made it, 2022 is also the final year of eligibility for Bonds, Clemens, Schilling and Sosa.

In 2023, the only strong candidate is Carlos Beltran. That’s also the last year of eligibility for Kent.

Thanks for reading. Please follow  Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.