My Virtual Ballot & 2022-25 BBWAA Preview

Tomorrow (Tuesday) at 6:00p ET, live on the MLB Network and mlb.com, Tim Mead, the President of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, will announce the results of the 2021 Hall of Fame voting from the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America). Based on the early reported voting (tallied on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker), it is likely that there will be no new Hall of Famers to announce.

At the time I’m writing this, only one candidate (pitcher Curt Schilling, now a controversial figure due to his political views) is tracking at above the 75% threshold required to earn a plaque in the museum in Cooperstown. Usually, however, Thibodaux’s tracker over-estimates a candidate’s eventual vote tally. If nobody gets 75% or more, the BBWAA will have pitched its first “shutout” since 2013, when Schilling, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa were on the ballot for the first time.

Even if no new Hall of Famers are elected tomorrow, there will still be a ceremony in Cooperstown this summer. The 2020 induction ceremony, which was meant to unveil the plaques for Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons, and Marvin Miller (posthumously), was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

I am not a Hall of Fame voter and almost certainly never will be but I’ll stack the number of hours I spend thinking and writing about the Hall of Fame with all but a handful of the voting members of the BBWAA.

And so, with all lack of humility, I hereby submit my virtual Cooperstown Cred ballot for the Hall of Fame Class of 2021. Just as the writers are limited to 10 selections, I’ll do the same. However, I will also indicate which candidates (if any) outside of the top 10 that I also feel deserve a Cooperstown plaque in the future.

I am listing these players in order and will share links to full-length pieces I’ve written about them on Cooperstown Cred.

1. Barry Bonds – LF (9th year on BBWAA ballot) (60.7% in 2020)

• Pirates (1986-92), Giants (1993-2007)
• Career: 762 HR, 1,996 RBI, 514 SB, 182 OPS+, 162.8 WAR
• Owns career (762) and single-season (73) records for home runs
• 7-time N.L. MVP, 14-time All-Star
• 8-time Gold Glove Award Winner, 12-time Silver Slugger

I have always been in favor of electing Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens to the Hall of Fame, despite their almost certain use of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). Bonds is, simply put, the best baseball player I have ever witnessed with my own eyes.

The prevailing narrative about Bonds’ use of PEDs is that he was irritated by all of the attention Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were receiving in 1998 during their historic run at Roger Maris’ single-season home run record. If you believe that Bonds started using PEDs in 1999, the year after the Great Home Run Chase, here is how his career statistics at the time (through ’98) stack up against other Hall of Fame outfielders that could hit with power and run a bit.

WP Table Builder

When you consider the fact that, at the age of 34, Bonds was already the only player in the history of baseball to record 400 home runs and 400 stolen bases, he would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer if he retired to become a monk in Tibet and never sniffed a PED.

2. Roger Clemens – SP (8th year on BBWAA ballot) (61.0% in 2020)

• Red Sox (1984-96), Blue Jays (1997-98), Yankees (1999-2003, ’07), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 354-184 (.658 WL%), 3.12 ERA, 4,672 SO, 143 ERA+, 138.7 WAR
• Only pitcher ever to strike out 20 batters in a game twice
• 1986 A.L. MVP, 7-time Cy Young Award Winner, 11-time All-Star

The story with Roger Clemens is essentially the same as it is with Bonds although, for me personally, I can’t say he’s necessarily the best pitcher I ever saw. Clearly, the overall volume of work is vastly superior to any other hurlers of his generation but Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, and Randy Johnson at their best could certainly give the Rocket a run for his money.

Anyway, nobody is certain when Clemens started using PEDs (or if he did with absolute certainty). According to his trainer with the Toronto Blue Jays (Brian McNamee), he didn’t start injecting Clemens with Winstrol until 1998, Clemens’ second season with the Blue Jays. The year is kind of important. Clemens had arguably the best season of his career in 1997 (21-7, 2.05 ERA), the year before he allegedly started using.

For the sake of argument, take a look at Clemens’ career numbers through the 1996 season (his last year with the Boston Red Sox) and compare them to the entire career of the late Roy Halladay, who was on the Hall of Fame ballot two years ago and a first-ballot inductee.

WP Table Builder

Clemens has statistics to match Halladay’s entire career based solely on his Red Sox years from 1984-96. Besides the 3 Cy Young Awards, Clemens also owned an MVP trophy and had already had two separate games in which he struck out 20 batters.

If Clemens had decided to hang up his spikes after the 1996 season and become a rancher in Texas, he would have been a Hall of Famer anyway.

I understand that there is a significant bloc of Hall of Fame voters who doesn’t want to “reward” players they consider to be “cheaters” with a Cooperstown plaque. I get it. But the truth is that the game of baseball was very permissive at the time. There was no drug testing policy. The media paid scant attention to the issue for years.

I don’t know if Bonds or Clemens will cross the finish line and get over 75% of the vote in the next two voting cycles. Right now it’s looking less and less likely. For more on the annual conundrum of what to do about Bonds and Clemens, click here.

3. Curt Schilling – SP (9th year on BBWAA ballot) (70.0% in 2020)

• Orioles (1988-90), Astros (1991), Phillies (1992-2000). D’Backs (2000-03), Red Sox (2004-07)
• Career: 216-146 (.597 WL%), 3.46 ERA, 3,116 SO, 127 ERA+, 80.5 WAR
• Postseason career: 11-2, 2.23 ERA in 133.1 IP (won 3 championships)
• 6-time All-Star

Curt Schilling has had to wait for his call to the Hall of Fame because he finished his career with only 216 wins, because he never won a Cy Young Award, and, in part, because of his conservative political views, espoused on Twitter (more about that here).

I should note that, since I posted my updated piece on Schilling last November, he’s become an even more controversial figure than he already was. After the insurrection at the nation’s Capitol on January 6th, the shaming of Trump supporters has intensified. Apparently, some BBWAA writers asked the Hall if they could change their ballots after the fact (ballots were due on December 31st).

I am not a Trump fan (I’m registered in California as a “no party preference” voter) and what happened on January 6th disgusted me. But I don’t believe in voting (or not voting) for players for the Hall of Fame based on their political views, even if those views support an insurrection against the government. The Hall of Fame is for everyone. 74 million Americans voted for the same president that Schilling supports and most of them would do so again, even after the events of January 6th.

Schilling’s outspoken political views don’t change the fact that he was a dominant pitcher, especially in his 30’s, and arguably the best postseason starting pitcher in the last 50 years. Also, there is this: Schilling’s career 4.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the best in MLB since 1884 (min 1,500 IP). That’s 1884 (President Chester Arthur), not 1984 (Ronald Reagan).

Finally, Schilling’s career WAR of 80.5 is the second-best for any pitcher not already enshrined into the Hall of Fame except for Clemens.

Curt Schilling belongs in the Hall of Fame. He’s currently tracking at 75.3% in Thibodaux’s tracker, although, as I indicated earlier, players usually wind up with a smaller vote tally than the one predicted by the tracker. That’s not a tracker flaw; it’s simply that writers who choose to remain anonymous are typically stingier with their ballots.

Anyway, in the unlikely event that Schilling gets elected tomorrow, the Hall’s Board of Directors can decide how to handle it. The world will not come to an end.

4. Jeff Kent – 2B (8th year on the BBWAA ballot) (27.5% in 2020)

• Blue Jays (1992), Mets (1992-96), Indians (’96), Giants (1997-2002), Astros (2003-04), Dodgers (2005-08)
• Career: .290 BA, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 2,461 Hits, 123 OPS+, 55.4 WAR
• 377 home runs (most all-time for 2B)
• 2000 NL MVP (.334 BA, 33 HR, 125 RBI)
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger

I have always been simultaneously baffled that Jeff Kent has gotten no respect from the BBWAA over the last six years while also understanding why he hasn’t.

Why baffled? Kent has the most home runs all-time for a second baseman. He has the third-most RBI (behind Hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby and Nap Lajoie). His .500 career slugging percentage is second best only to Hornsby. His 560 doubles are fourth-best to Craig Biggio, Lajoie, and Charlie Gehringer (all Hall of Famers). In “RBat” (the Runs Above Average Batting component of WAR), he’s 6th, behind Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Lajoie, Joe Morgan, and Gehringer. Again, all in the Hall of Fame.

Why do I understand it? Year after year, it’s been a packed ballot, baby! I didn’t have room for Kent in my virtual top 10 until two years ago when I pegged him as my 10th and final selection.

There’s also the fact that Kent’s WAR is relatively low, thanks to a high double-play rate and poor defensive metrics. Finally, it’s true that Kent was a late bloomer, and Hall of Famer players usually imprint themselves into the brains of the BBWAA members early in their careers. Kent didn’t become a star until he was 29 when Giants manager Dusty Baker had the faith to put his new second baseman into the middle of the order.

Having said that, Kent’s not going to make it. He’s tracking at only 32.4% right now and only has two years later after this year. I do think that he might fare well with the Eras Committee (formerly known as the Veterans Committee). Those “second chance” committees often keep it really simple: “most HR ever for a 2nd baseman” might be all he needs to get that plaque.

For more on why I feel Kent belongs in the Hall of Fame, please click here.

5. Scott Rolen – 3B (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (35.3% in 2020)

• Phillies (1996-2002), Cardinals (2002-07), Blue Jays (2008-09), Reds (2009-12)
• Career: .281 BA, 316 HR, 1,287 RBI, 122 OPS+, 70.1 WAR
• 7-time All-Star, 8-time Gold Glove Winner, 2002 N.L. Silver Slugger

As it was with Larry Walker (who was elected to the Hall a year ago), Scott Rolen is a WAR candidate (as I write about in more detail here). Both have a WAR over 70 and both are over that number based on superior defensive metrics, which are backed by Gold Glove hardware.

If you think about it, it’s fairly surprising that Rolen did so poorly on his first two ballots. Besides the high WAR, there is the combination of a power bat and Gold Glove awards. First of all, there are only two third sackers in baseball history with more Gold Gloves, Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt. The “club” of third basemen with 300+ home runs and 8 Gold Gloves is a club with two members, Schmidt and Rolen.

Rolen got 35% of the vote last year and has surged dramatically in the early voting reported by Thibodaux, having earned a whopping 62.1% of the votes revealed so far. That total will drop when the final votes are tallied but it’s a surge that portends a Cooperstown plaque in the upcoming years.

6. Gary Sheffield – OF (7th year on the BBWAA ballot) (30.5% in 2019)

• Brewers (1988-91), Padres (1992-93), Marlins (1993-98), Dodgers (1998-2001), Braves (2002-03), Yankees (2004-06), Tigers (2007-08), Mets (2009)
• Career: .292 BA, 509 HR, 1676 RBI, 2,689 Hits, 140 OPS+, 60.5 WAR
• 9-time All-Star, 5-time Silver Slugger

Thanks to a crowded ballot and an admitted use of PEDs, Gary Sheffield never got more than 14% of the Hall of Fame vote in his first years on the ballot (he rose to 30.5% on the less-stacked 2020 ballot). As a PED user, what makes Sheffield different from most of the others is that he admitted it right away and says he didn’t know that the “cream” he was using was a steroid. Clearly, some writers have decided to give him a pass for that reason. His “tracker” support is currently at 46.7%.

After filling out in his early 20’s, Sheffield’s body type looked consistently rock solid but not outrageously so. I am inclined to believe that he was a one-time “oops” user. With PED users (proven or suspected) I look for authenticity. I feel that his numbers are reflective of his natural hitting ability.

What we know for sure is that he was a fantastic and highly feared hitter. His career WAR is destroyed by horrible defensive metrics. The only hitters with a higher offensive WAR (oWAR) than Sheffield’s 80.8 who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Bonds, A-Rod, Pujols, Pete Rose, and Manny Ramirez.

Just using oWAR, Sheffield is ahead of Frank Thomas, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Thome, Reggie Jackson, Jeff Bagwell, Dave Winfield, Willie McCovey, and Harmon Killebrew. Regardless of what he did or didn’t do in the field, that’s a Hall of Famer to me. For more on Sheffield, click here.

7. Todd Helton – 1B (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (29.2% in 2020)

• Colorado Rockies (1997-2013)
• Career: .316 BA, 369, 1,406 RBI, 2,519 Hits, 133 OPS+, 61.8 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove, 4-time Silver Slugger

I will admit that a couple of years ago when I was deciding for the first time whether Todd Helton belonged in the Hall of Fame or not, it made my brain hurt a little bit. This is thanks to him having played all of the home games in his career at Coors Field.

Sabermetric pioneer Bill James thinks he’s a Hall of Famer, which is usually good enough for me. This what James wrote in the 2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook:

“Helton’s numbers… are SO good that nobody knows what to do with them. Helton played not only in a very high-run era, but also in a hitter’s paradise. People know intuitively that his numbers are misleading and you need to let some of the air out of them, but they don’t know intuitively how much. 

But if you will pardon my saying, that’s what guys like me are good for. Guys like Tom Tango, John Dewan, Sean Forman and myself… we know how to handle THAT problem. We normalize everything for context all of the time.

Even if you adjust for the context, Todd Helton was a Hall of Famer.”

— Bill James (2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook)

On Baseball-Reference, Helton’s top two “most similar” players based on “Similarity Scores” (a James invention) are Jeff Bagwell and Edgar Martinez. That’s pretty great company although, remember, those three players didn’t spend half of their careers in Colorado.

Again, Bill James is somebody that I revere. He says that he’s accounted for the “Coors effect” with respect to Helton’s statistics. I took a deep dive into the numbers and concluded that James is correct. Of course, he was correct!

Helton is in fact worthy of the Hall of Fame. More writers are coming to that conclusion: he’s tracking at 50.5% which, combined with the fact that he has 7 years left on the BBWAA ballot after this year, tells me that he’s going to make it into Cooperstown.

8. Manny Ramirez  – OF (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (28.2% in 2019)

• Indians (1993-2000), Red Sox (2001-08), Dodgers (2008-10), White Sox (2010), Rays (2011)
• Career: .312 BA, 555 HR, 1,831 RBI, 2,574 Hits, 154 OPS+, 69.3 WAR
• 12-time All-Star, 9-time Silver Slugger

If it were based solely on his performance, of course, Manny Ramirez would be a Hall of Famer. Manny could flat out hit and hit in the clutch. He has the most career postseason home runs in the history of baseball and the 3rd most regular-season grand slams (behind Lou Gehrig and Alex Rodriguez).

He would be #3 on my list behind Bonds and Clemens if he had not tested positive for PEDs in 2009 and then again in 2011.

When it comes to PED users, authenticity is again the key for me. Was the player’s career authentically one of Hall of Fame-caliber or a chemically enhanced farce? I’m inclined to believe the former. For more on where Manny ranks among the great hitters in baseball history and why I’m forgiving him for his two failed drug tests, I invite you to click here.

9. Andy Pettitte  – SP (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (11.3% in 2020)

• Yankees (1995-2003, ’07-’13), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 256-153 (.626 WL%), 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, 60.7 WAR
• Career postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA in 44 starts (won 5 championships)
• 3-time All-Star

Andy Pettitte is a guy who looked like a future Hall of Famer when watching him in the first three seasons of his career. In his sophomore campaign (1996), he was a 21-game winner (finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting) and a member of the World Champion New York Yankees. In 1997 the tall left-hander went 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA (good enough for a 156 OPS+ and 8.4 WAR).

The fact is, however, after 1997, Pettitte only had one season in which he was in the top 30 of all starting pitchers in WAR. That one season was 2005, with the Astros, when he went 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA (177 ERA+, 6.8 WAR). The timing of that great campaign was perfect; he helped Houston make the playoffs (barely) as the Wild Card team. The Astros subsequently won their first-ever pennant.

Because the Yankees and Astros made the playoffs 14 times in his 18 MLB campaigns, Pettitte is the all-time postseason leader in games started (44) and thus, also leads in wins (19), innings (276.2), and strikeouts (183). His playoff ERA (3.81) mirrors almost precisely his regular-season ERA (3.85).

If you put a gun to my head and made me the ultimate arbiter of Pettitte’s Cooperstown fate, I’d say “yes” but I’m not crazy about his case. Not being a top 30 in the majors in WAR for most of one’s career is not something that screams “Hall of Fame.”

If Pettitte had spent 16 years of his career with the Kansas City Royals instead of the New York Yankees, he wouldn’t be anywhere near the Hall of Fame. A “yes” for Pettitte is an acknowledgment that who gets into Cooperstown isn’t always fair, that playing for great teams helps. Anyway, Pettitte is still not in the top 10 for most of the voting members of the BBWAA. He’s tracking at just 15.9%, barely ahead of the 11% he earned a year ago.

10. Sammy Sosa (9th year on the BBWAA ballot) (13.9% in 2020)

• Rangers (1989), White Sox (1989-91), Cubs (1992-2004), Orioles (2005), Rangers (2007)
• Career: .273 BA, 609 HR, 1,667 RBI, 128 OPS+, 58.6 WAR
• 1998 N.L. MVP, 7-time All-Star, 6-time Silver Slugger

Amazingly, despite the 609 home runs, Sammy Sosa’s 58.6 WAR is only the 12th highest on the 2021 BBWAA ballot. If you need an excuse not to put him in your top 10 that is not PED related, there it is.

I never put Sammy on my virtual ballot in years past simply because he wasn’t one of the 10 best players eligible for a vote. Additionally, the thing that makes him a potential Hall of Famer (all the home runs) lacks some authenticity. Can you believe that, by the metrics that make up WAR, Sosa was a better defensive player than an offensive player from 1995-97?

At the end of 1997 (his age 28 season), Sammy had 207 career home runs. Five years later, he had 499, which included three seasons of 60 or more. I used to feel strongly that Sosa’s home run surge was an outright fraud. After reading some fascinating research about the impact of steroids on home run totals I’ve softened that position somewhat but still can’t get over the idea that his chief calling card was a chemical creation. So, given that I’m not sold any other candidates outside of my first nine, I’m tentatively in favor Sosa for the Hall. But I’ll be dropping him (and Pettitte) from my virtual ballot next year in favor of David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez.

Other Very Good Players on the Ballot

If the Hall of Fame offered its members a “binary ballot” (where they could choose “yes” or “no” without a limit of 10 names per year), a great many voters would have checked more than 10 in previous years. The 2021 ballot, however, is far less packed than those of 2013-20. I feel strongly about the first 9 names I checked on my virtual ballot. As for Sammy Sosa, I lean yes because I am not an “anti-PED” virtual voter but there’s something about his career that still feels inauthentic.

For the rest of these 2021 candidates, right now, if given a binary choice, it would be “no.” But some of these are very soft no’s. I believe in a big Hall of Fame because the Hall is already filled with players from 1871-1950 in vastly greater proportional numbers than the players in the years that have followed.

11. Tim Hudson – SP (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Athletics (1999-2004), Braves (2005-13), Giants (2014-15)
• Career: 222-133 (.625 WL%), 3.49 ERA, 120 ERA+, 56.5 WAR
• 4-time All-Star
• 4 times in the top 6 of Cy Young voting (runner-up in 2000)

Tim Hudson pitched like a potential Hall of Famer early in his career and his final numbers are quite good. As the years pass, he may look better and better as a candidate. But, right now, he’s tracking at 3.8%, which would put him below the 5% required to remain on future ballots. For more on the pros and cons of Hudson’s case, please click here.

12. Bobby Abreu – RF (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (5.5% in 2020)

• Astros (1996-97), Phillies (1998-2006), Yankees (2006-08), Angels (2009-2012), Dodgers (2012), Mets (2014)
• Career: .291 BA, .395 OBP, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI, 2,470 Hits, 400 SB, 128 OPS+, 60.2 WAR
• Career: 1,476 walks (20th most in Major League Baseball history)
• 2-time All-Star, 2004 Silver Slugger, 2005 Gold Glove Award winner

Bobby Abreu is on the BBWAA ballot for the second time in 2021 and is the ultimate sneaky-good candidate. Abreu had power and surprising speed for a big man, listed at 220 pounds on his Baseball-Reference profile.

Abreu was durable; he’s the only player other than Willie Mays in the history of baseball to play in 150 or more games for 13 consecutive seasons (with the caveat that there are others who would have accomplished that feat if not for player strikes).

Abreu is also one of 14 players to achieve six different seasons with 100 walks and 100 runs scored. The other 13 are all in the Hall of Fame except for Barry Bonds.

Finally, Abreu is of 7 players with at least 250 HR and 350 SB, with Bonds, Derek Jeter, Rickey Henderson, Craig Biggio, Joe Morgan, and Bobby Bonds, Barry’s father.

All of those “clubs” in which Abreu is a member give him a legitimate case for the Hall but, in fairness, he’s the weakest member of the groups in which I’ve listed him.

I’m on the fence about whether he crosses the bar and, clearly, most members of the BBWAA think that he doesn’t. Abreu is tracking at just 12.1% of the vote, putting him safely above the 5% required to remain on future ballots but at a level that does not portend a massive surge of support in the upcoming years.

13. Mark Buehrle – SP (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• White Sox (2000-11), Marlins (2012), Blue Jays (2013-15)
• Career: 214-160 (.572 WL%), 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+, 60.0 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 2-0, 1 Save, 3.47 ERA in 23.1 IP in 2005 postseason (White Sox won World Series)
• Pitched a no-hitter in 2007 and a perfect game in 2009

Mark Buehrle was the kind of pitcher who would make an older fan remind you of baseball of a bygone era. He pitched to contact, and he worked fast. He was also unusually durable, authoring 14 straight seasons of at least 200 innings pitched.

As I explain here, if he had not chosen to retire at the age of 36, he might have put up numbers that would have made him a 21st-century version of Don Sutton. Buehrle is getting a significant amount of support from Chicago sportswriters. He’s tracking at 7.7% on Thibodaux’s tracker, making him a good bet to be back on the ballot in 2022.

14. Billy Wagner  – RP (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (31.7% in 2019)

• Career: 422 Saves (86% success rate), 2.31 ERA, 187 ERA+, 27.7 WAR
• 7-time All-Star

Billy Wagner has some key things going for him. His career 2.31 ERA is the second-best in the last 100 years to Rivera (for pitchers with a minimum of 750 innings pitched). Using the same minimum, his 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings are the best in the history of baseball. His career WHIP (walks + hits per 9 innings) is 0.998, second-best in history to Hall of Famer Addie Joss.

So why is Wagner not in the Hall of Fame yet? The problem is the innings, as in only 903 pitched. Rivera threw 1,283.2 (to go with 652 saves). Trevor Hoffman threw 1,089.1 (along with 601 saves). Although the three closers were contemporaries, Wagner was much more of a “clean 9th inning” pitcher than the others (more details in this piece I updated recently).

Here’s a troubling statistic I uncovered through some extensive research after re-posting my full-length piece: in the 81 times Wagner entered a save situation with runners on base, his ERA was 4.23. That mediocre number does not include the 38 out of 119 inherited runners that he allowed to cross home plate. So, including inherited runners, Wagner allowed 78 runners to score (in 83 innings) when he was tasked to be a “fireman” by squelching an existing rally.

There does appear to be momentum building for Wagner. He’s currently polling at 45.6% in the Hall of Fame tracker.

Personally, I’d like to see if Wagner’s spectacular rate stats hold up over the next five years as Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman start to approach his career innings total.

15. Andruw Jones (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (19.4% in 2020)

• Braves (1996-’07), Dodgers (’08), Rangers (’09), White Sox (’10), Yankees (2011-12)
• Career: .254 BA, 434 HR, 1,289 RBI, 111 OPS+, 62.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove Award winner

On the surface, a center fielder with 10 Gold Gloves and over 400 home runs should be a Hall of Famer, right? Some people think so but not most of us. However, it looks like he has enough of a constituency (one that is growing) to stay on the ballot for his full 10 years. Jones is currently at an impressive 40.7% on the Thibodaux tracker, a vast improvement over his 19.4% tally in 2019.

Jones essentially had two careers, one in which he was a productive power hitter and a superb defensive center fielder for the Atlanta Braves. Then, after signing a free-agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he put on weight and instantly became a below-average hitter and fielder. Within two years of winning his final Gold Glove with the Braves, Jones was a platoon designated hitter for the Texas Rangers.

• 1996-2007: 61.0 WAR (4th behind Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones)
• 2008-2012: 1.7 WAR (tied for 354th in MLB)

My biggest beef about the Andruw Jones Hall of Fame case is that you have to fully believe in his off-the-charts defensive metrics. As Bill James has noted, the metrics say that he was twice as good defensively as Willie Mays. For this and other reasons why I don’t think Jones deserves a plaque in the Hall of Fame, I invite you to take a look.

16. Torii Hunter – OF (1st year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Twins (1997-2007, 2015), Angels (2008-12), Tigers (2013-14)
• Career: .277 BA, 353 HR, 1,391 RBI, 2,452 Hits, 110 OPS+, 50.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 9-time Gold Glove Award Winner

Torii Hunter was fun to watch. He was one of his generation’s most prolific “thieves.” I’m not talking about his stolen base prowess (he stole 199 bases but was caught 99 times). I’m talking about his propensity to rob opposing batters of home runs by climbing or leaping over the outfield wall (hence his nickname “Spider-Man”).

As a center fielder, his 353 HR and 9 Gold Gloves present a similar case to Andruw Jones’ but, ultimately he falls short, as I explain here. Hunter is currently tracking at 4.9% on the early reported votes, placing him squarely on the 5% bubble as to whether he’ll be back on the ballot in 2022.

17. Omar Vizquel – SS (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (52.6% in 2020)

• Mariners (1989-93), Indians (1994-2004), Giants (2005-08), Rangers (2009), White Sox (2010-11), Blue Jays (2012)
• Career: .272 BA, 80 HR, 951 RBI, 2,877 Hits, 82 OPS+, 45.6 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 11-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Highest fielding % of all-time for shortstops (min. 1,000 games)

Some people think Omar Vizquel was the second coming of Ozzie Smith. I don’t. He was an excellent fielder but all of the advanced metrics say that he wasn’t nearly as good as the 11 Gold Gloves indicate. In his 24-year career, only once did Vizquel receive even one MVP vote. Please click here for more details on why Omar falls short.

I have Omar two slots below Andruw here for the sole reason that, even though I’m suspicious of them, Jones has the defensive metrics to back up his Gold Gloves while Vizquel does not.

For the record, my opinion is not shared by a significant percentage of the BBWAA electorate. When a player has over 50% of the voters in his corner in just his third year on the ballot, that indicates a likely Cooperstown call in the years that follow. However, from the first 182 votes reported on Thibodaux’s tracker for 2021, his vote support is at just 40.7%. This may be in part because, in mid-December, the news broke that Vizquel’s wife had accused him of domestic violence.

The BBWAA voting electorate gets younger, more liberal, and more sabermetrically minded every year. Vizquel’s low WAR and domestic violence allegation don’t sit well with the younger, liberal, or analytically inclined. He has earned just one vote among the eight first-time voters to cast their ballots.

Although Vizquel has traditionally been one of the rare players who has previously out-performed his “tracker” numbers, his candidacy seems like it may have stalled. Last fall, I considered his eventual induction via the BBWAA an inevitability. Now, I’m not so sure.

Looking Ahead to 2022

The 2022 BBWAA ballot will be a fascinating one. It’s the final year of eligibility for Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, and Schilling and the first year of eligibility of Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz. Are there a bunch of writers who have been voting “no” for Bonds and Clemens just to make them wait the full 10 years? How will A-Rod do? He’s clearly in the “all-time great” category of Bonds and Clemens but has the significant blemish of serving a one-year suspension for using Performing Enhancing Drugs.

As for Ortiz, he was named in a New York Times report about a failed 2003 “survey test” but Commissioner Rob Manfred has in essence given Big Papi a pass. Manfred told reporters that there were at least 10 questionable samples and, since no penalties were in place at the time, no due diligence was done to verify the veracity of the results.

There are three other solid Cooperstown candidates coming to the ballot in 2022: Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, and Joe Nathan. To me, none of the three are Hall of Fame material but they will all have points in favor and will likely have their advocates.

So, here is theoretically what my 2022 virtual ballot would look like:

1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Curt Schilling
4. David Ortiz
5. Alex Rodriguez
6. Jeff Kent
7. Scott Rolen
8. Gary Sheffield
9. Todd Helton
10. Manny Ramirez

The 2023 Ballot

In 2023, there’s only one viable new candidate on the ballot. It’s Carlos Beltran, who I have long felt is a Hall of Famer but is now severely tainted by his prominent role in the recently revealed scandal of sign-stealing by the Houston Astros.

Jeff Kent will be on the ballot for the last time.

If I had to predict my virtual ballot two years into the future, here’s what it might look like if Big Papi is (as I predict) a first-ballot selection in 2022:

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Carlos Beltran
3. Jeff Kent
4. Scott Rolen
5. Gary Sheffield
6. Todd Helton
7. Manny Ramirez
8. Andy Pettitte
9. Bobby Abreu?
10. Billy Wagner? Tim Hudson? Mark Buehrle?

The 2024 Ballot

So, assuming that Vizquel is not in the Hall yet and that Beltran falls short on his first try, the names in 2024 will bring us back to a crowded ballot.

There’s a slam-dunk first-ballot Hall of Famer in Adrian Beltre plus three other solid candidates: Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, and David Wright. In my opinion, Mauer is a likely and deserved Cooperstown inductee. Utley will be a sabermetric favorite while Wright will likely fall short because of his injury-shortened career.

Gary Sheffield will be on the ballot for the last time.

Here are the ten names I might select this year:

1. Adrian Beltre
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Carlos Beltran
4. Scott Rolen
5. Gary Sheffield
6. Joe Mauer
7. Todd Helton
8. Manny Ramirez
9. Andy Pettitte
10. David Wright or Chase Utley

The 2025 Ballot

The 2025 ballot will likely bring several new big names, including Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia. If Dustin Pedroia never plays again, he’ll be on this ballot; the same is true for Felix Hernandez.

Troy Tulowitzki (who liked a sure-fire Hall of Famer early in his career) will be on the ballot for the first time, as will Ian Kinsler, a 2nd baseman with a sabermetric case.

2025 will also be Billy Wagner’s last turn on the BBWAA ballot.

And so, with my prediction that Beltran will be a second-ballot Hall of Famer, here are the names I might select in 2025:

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Ichiro Suzuki
4. Scott Rolen (if he’s not in already)
5. Joe Mauer
6. CC Sabathia
7. Todd Helton
8. Dustin Pedroia
9. Andy Pettitte
10. David Wright or Chase Utley

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