All-Star Nick Markakis: Future Cooperstown Candidate?

Yesterday, Atlanta Braves right fielder Nick Markakis was voted by the fans to be in the starting lineup for the National League All-Star team. It will be the first appearance in the Mid-Summer Classic for the 34-year-old right fielder.

Markakis, the veteran leader of the young Braves squad, has been a significant contributor to the team’s surprising first-half success. Expected to be in the N.L. East’s bottom tier, the Braves and another young team (the Philadelphia Phillies) are battling for the first place at the top of the division.

Before the season, I wrote a six-part series on the Hall of Fame odds of the active players in each of the six MLB divisions. When it was time to research the N.L. East piece and looked at the Braves, I thought about first baseman Freddie Freeman and nobody else. But I was in the habit of giving a second look to veteran players just in case I was dismissing them too quickly. Nick Markakis fit that kind of player to a T.

I’ll be honest, I was surprised when I visited Markakis’ Baseball Reference profile and saw that he had 2,052 hits. That’s not a Hall of Fame number but it’s a good total for a player who had just finished his age 33 season. So I had to ask myself, is there a possibility, even a small one, that Nick Markakis could be a future Hall of Famer?

Cooperstown Cred: Nick Markakis

• Career: 175 HR, 935 RBI, 2,165 Hits, .289 BA, 111 OPS+, 32.8 WAR
• 2-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 2018 N.L. All-Star (.322 BA, 10 HR, 59 RBI, 140 OPS+, 3.0 WAR)
• 2018: leads the N.L. with 113 Hits

(cover photo: Sport News Magazine)

As I published this piece about the future Hall of Famers in the N.L. East and I got to the Nick Markakis comment, I noted that Markakis had never made an All-Star team. Now he has.

But there’s more that’s missing. Markakis has never received a single vote (not even for 10th place) in any year’s MVP balloting, although he probably deserved to in 2008 with the Baltimore Orioles.

Markakis hasn’t hit .300 for a full season since 2008, hasn’t driven in 100 years in 9 years, never topped 200 hits, only once topped 100 runs scored, and has a career high of 23 home runs.

Basically, Markakis has barely done anything in his 12-year career that would attract the eye of a Hall of Fame voter. He has been a consistent, durable player, a guy whose name you can reliably put into the lineup who plays a decent right field and hits well enough to keep a regular job. But hardly a future Cooperstown inductee.

Still, looking back at the pre-season, there were those 2,052 hits by the age of 33. So, I asked myself, could he reach 3,000, a mark that would make him a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate despite the lack of fanfare or accolades?

What 2,052 Hits Means for a Age 33 Player

What does 2,052 career hits mean for a player who had just completed his age 33 season? It means he had more hits at the same age than Craig Biggio, Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield, Lou Brock, Honus Wagner, and Cap Anson, all of whom are in the Hall of Fame and have more than 3,000 career hits.

When you’re looking for the odds of a player reaching a milestone, the first place to look is to the “Favorite Toy” in the annual Bill James Handbook. Well, there it was, in the 2018 edition of the Handbook: Nick Markakis had, according to the formula devised long ago by the sabermetric pioneer, a 28% chance of reaching 3,000 hits in career.

Other than those tainted by scandal (PED use or gambling), there is no eligible player ever who has reached 3,000 hits who hasn’t made it into the Hall.

Pre-Season Hall of Fame Prognosis

I asked myself, does this mean that there’s a 28% chance that Nick Markakis would become a Hall of Famer? Those odds seemed extraordinarily high to me for a “never All-Star” and “never MVP candidate.”

So, I came up with two reasons why 28% was a vastly inflated number:

1. I theorized that, if this particular player were to reach 3,000 hits, the future Hall of Fame voting electorate would look at the lack of other accomplishments and not issue an automatic rubber stamp for a Cooperstown plaque simply because of the milestone.
2. I had the temerity to question the validity of James’ Favorite Toy. I felt (and still feel) odd questioning anything that James says or does but the formula was created a long time ago. I wondered if the 28% projection properly took into account the likelihood that Markakis could maintain his 155-game-per-season playing time late into his 30’s, given that he had logged a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of less than 2.0 for six consecutive seasons.

And so, armed with two theories that I still today feel are valid, I offered my thoroughly unscientific Hall of Fame odds to be 5% for Markakis.

Opening Day 2018

On Opening Day 2018 (March 29th at home against the Phillies), the lineup card presented by manager Brian Snitker featured Nick Markakis in the cleanup spot. There’s a reason why I’m mentioning this detail, as you’ll see.

In the game, the Braves were down 5-0 entering the bottom of the 6th inning. Phillies’ starter Aaron Nola had tossed five innings of two-hit, shutout ball. Still, after a double and fly out to start the 6th, rookie manager Gabe Kapler summoned left-handed specialist Hoby Milner to face lefty-swinging Freddie Freeman, lifting Nola after just 68 pitches. Freeman, on a full-count, blasted a two-run home run to make the score 5-2.

The Braves, sparked by a solo home run by an emerging star at 2nd base, Ozzie Albies, scored three more runs in the bottom of the 8th to tie the score at 5.

In the bottom of the 9th, facing closer Hector Neris, the Braves had a runner on 2nd base with two outs. Kapler chose to intentionally walk Freeman to pitch to the Braves cleanup hitter, Markakis. The veteran right-fielder then proceeded to launch a hanging splitter to deep right center field for a walk-off 3-run tater.

The walk-off blast by Markakis sparked this entertaining article by Jason Foster of The Sporting News. The short version is that Foster had been very sarcastic (on Twitter) about the 34-year old Markakis occupying the cleanup spot, before the walk-off blast.

Essentially, Foster had been as dismissive of Markakis on his Twitter feed as I had been about his Hall of Fame chances. And, as Foster wrote, “Nick Markakis, in his own quiet way, told me to screw off.” I felt exactly as Foster did at that moment.

What Does 2018 Mean Going Forward?

This is Nick Markakis’ fourth season with the Atlanta Braves. In his first three seasons in Atlanta, the team won 67, 68 and 72 games. Markakis and the team made a statement on Opening Day that 2018 would be different. And different it has been, especially for the veteran outfielder.

There’s still a lot of baseball yet to be played but 2018 is shaping up to be the 2nd best season of Markakis’ 13-year career, this coming after what was arguably the 2nd worst. Take a look at the numbers from 2017 and you’ll see why nobody could have predicted this resurgent campaign.

WP Table Builder

Needless to say, it’s more likely than not that Markakis will not maintain this level of performance for the balance of 2018 but, if he comes close, he’s going to get down-ballot MVP votes for the first time in his career. Besides having his first appearance at the All-Star Game, he’ll possibly get just the 2nd opportunity of his career to perform in the post-season.

The most significant thing that Markakis is accomplishing this year is that he’s re-establishing his worthiness as an everyday player as he completes his current four-year contract with the Braves. Baseball as a sport is getting more and more unforgiving to aging veterans. If Markakis had been a free agent after the 2017 season, it’s a legitimate to ask whether his career as a regular player might have been over due to lack of opportunity.

The key to any chance Markakis has of making the Hall or getting to 3,000 hits is that he must remain an everyday player for many more years. Considering that he posted a 0.7 WAR in 2017 (and hadn’t cleared 2 since 2011), I thought that maintaining a full time job would be unlikely even for 2019 and less likely for the five or more seasons he’ll need. That’s still a challenge but it’s more likely now that he’ll get a chance at a respectable free agent contract this off-season.

Chances at Getting 3,000 Hits

If you’re a long-shot Hall of Fame candidate, it’s good to lead your league in the statistical category that is the calling card for your Cooperstown case. For Nick Markakis, adding 113 hits to his pre-season total of 2,052 represents a big step forward.

What if Markakis is able to get to the magic number of 200 hits for the first time in his career? That would put him at 2,252 through his age 34 season. That’s a very good but not remarkable number. It would be the 58th most in baseball history. Of the previous 57 higher on the list, 19 of them made it eventually to 3,000 (33%).

Again, remembering that we’re projecting 2,252 hits through his age 34 season (he hasn’t done it yet), Markakis would rank 16th among players not already in the Hall of Fame. Six of the 15 players with more than 2,252 hits through their age 34 seasons are either still active or not left eligible for Cooperstown. Pete Rose is on the list on ineligibles.

By the way, even if Markakis finishes with “only” 187 hits this season, he’d still be 16th on this list.

Anyway, if you take out the inactive or ineligible players (including Rose), that leaves just 8 players with more than 2,252 hits through their age 34 seasons who didn’t make the Hall of Fame: Vada Pinson, Stuffy McInnis, Rusty Staub, Edgar Renteria, Buddy Bell, Willie Davis, Johnny Damon and George Van Haltren.

Of course, none of those eight players made it to 3,000 hits by the end of their careers. The closest were Damon (with 2,769), Pinson (2,757) and the late Staub (2,716).

The Long-Shot Cooperstown Chances

Despite the renaissance campaign Markakis has authored in 2018, he remains a very long shot for the Hall of Fame. I stand by the comment that even 3,000 hits wouldn’t guarantee entry if it’s absent other statistical accomplishments.

However, getting to that milestone would probably mean that he’s somehow able to maintain his 2018 form. He’ll need to make another one or two more All-Star Games and be one of the best three or four players on his team.

The bottom line is that he won’t get the playing time to get to 3,000 if he performs as he did from 2013-2017 when he averaged 1.2 WAR per season and a below-average 99 OPS+. He will need to maintain his 2018 form (or close to it) for years, a tall order indeed.

What’s more likely is that Markakis’ career will end as Damon’s did. The longtime outfielder known as Caveman was sitting at 2,723 hits after his age 37 season (with the Tampa Bay Rays). Damon was unsigned in the off-season, managed just 64 games played the following summer with the Indians and, after his release in August, was never signed again, falling 231 hits shy of the magic number.

Hall of Fame Odds — 10%

Based on his 2018 first-half renaissance campaign, I think it’s fair to increase the Nick Markakis Hall of Fame odds from 5% to 10%. That’s not entirely a scientific number but let me explain why I picked 10% and not higher.

By the time Markakis is eligible for the Hall of Fame, the makeup of the BBWAA electorate will be filled with more writers who pay close attention to a player’s sabermetric numbers, such as WAR. Right now, Markakis has a 32.8 career WAR without any obvious reason to think that it underestimates what he’s achieved so far in his career.

There are 24 players in baseball history who logged over 2,000 hits through their age 34 seasons who also had a WAR under 40. Five of those 24 players are in the Hall of Fame. OK, that’s not too bad, it’s 21%. Now, allow me to identify those five: Pie Traynor, Lloyd Waner, Jim Bottomley, George Kell, and Bill Mazeroski. All five finished their careers with a WAR under 40 but each has a different reason why they were inducted. Remember, of course, that WAR didn’t exist when these players played or were inducted.

• Pie Traynor (3B): career .320 hitter, over 100 RBI 7 times, 6 times top 10 MVP voting
• Lloyd Waner (CF): a poor Veterans’ Committee selection, brother of a real Hall of Famer Paul Waner
• Jim Bottomley (1B): 1928 N.L. MVP, over 100 RBI 6 times, career .310 hitter, former teammate of influential Veterans Committee member Frankie Frisch
• George Kell (3B): 10-time All-Star at a position (3rd base) underrepresented in Cooperstown
• Bill Mazeroski (2B): considered best fielding 2nd basemen of all-time, 1960 World Series hero

The bottom line is that there’s no modern precedent for an outfielder with a sub-40 WAR making the Hall of Fame. The BBWAA are turning away players like Jim Edmonds, with eight Gold Gloves, 393 HR and a 60.4 career WAR.

Markakis has, in my view, a 10% chance of making the Hall of Fame because he has a reasonable chance (20% or so) to pass 3,000 hits and that might be all he needs to get that plaque.

Conclusions

Regardless, let’s recognize Nick Markakis for what he is. He’s a very good baseball player, a quiet team leader and a reliable option in right field who can be counted on to play almost every day. Markakis has played in at least 155 games in 10 of his last 11 seasons. That kind of durability has its own value and will help him land a free agent contract this off-season, whether it’s with Atlanta or elsewhere.

Good luck, Nick, in being the veteran who keeps playing late regularly late into his 30’s and makes it to the magic number of 3,000.

Thanks for reading.

Please follow me on Twitter @cooperstowncred.